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Exploration / Oil Stocks

  • 09-02-2012 1:16pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 790 ✭✭✭


    Seems a lot of the recent action on this forum has been on exploration stocks. Would be interesting to hear peoples opinions on which of these stocks are worth keeping an eye on. I have attached a very interesting read on potential winners...

    Cant help but feel that FOGL is a huge prospect!


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 790 ✭✭✭alanceltic


    Just bumping this thread I posted at the start of the year. The top prospect they identified a risk/reward basis was falklands oil and gas (FOGL) with a 6000% potential upside on an unrisked basis, phenomenal when you think about it. They have plans to farm out a small part of their acreage for good terms which strengthens their hand but more importantly borders and southern are on the cusp of a discovery if you believe the rumors. They are drilling in the southern basin of the falklands and FOGL have a prospect less than 5km away from this drill. The borders drill is a game changes for the southern basin and both borders and FOGL could potentially dwarf what rockhopper have found in the northern basin.

    Rns due for borders very soon and could well be Mon morning but expect money to pour into FOGL which has more and bigger targets...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Formation


    History of oil in the Falklands?

    Taxation terms?

    Other exploration sites?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    BOR RNS out this morning and while they found gas, it was not the RNS the market was expecting so they have taken a dive. I made some money on BOR earlier this year. I looking to buy some FOGL today, its in the 70's at the moment.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    I don`t like Gas (I already hold Petroceltic and thats taking long enough to get going and they are less than 100klm from a gas pipeline not like the Falklands which is a couple of thousand miles away from one).
    I may be selling FOGL to you so as I bought in at 63p. I`m sorry I didnt sell last week but I`ll sell today as profit is profit after all and nobody ever went broke from taking profit


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    I hold PCI too but still think there is value in FOGL...I bought in at 82p this afternoon...I think FOGL will have a strong finish to the day...I would hold your FOGL until at least tomorrow and see how the market reacts. It went down to 77psih and seems to be storming back up..


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 790 ✭✭✭alanceltic


    FOGL was the big winner today IMO, the results from BOR are still inconclusive at this stage and it will be another few weeks before we find out exactly how commercial/valuable it is.

    FOGL whilst right next door are not drilling into a replica of the BOR geology, although the source rock and trap structure should be similar. Given that rockhopper struck oil FOGL are very much in the game with a farm out on favourable terms and 2-3 drills to come.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Formation


    This sounds like pure blind gambling.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    Formation wrote: »
    This sounds like pure blind gambling.

    Not quite, unlike gambling we don`t have to wait for the outcome of the match to collect winnings ;)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    Grecco wrote: »
    Not quite, unlike gambling we don`t have to wait for the outcome of the match to collect winnings ;)

    Well put, grecco...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 328 ✭✭Soulja boy


    PETROCELTIC opened -22% this morning. Has an announcement been made?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    For PCI, look at the UK listing, not the Irish one.

    As far as gambling is concerned, yes these junior miners are risky, but with some good research they can be calculated risks. Anything can happen in sport!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 712 ✭✭✭Formation


    Soulja boy wrote: »
    PETROCELTIC opened -22% this morning. Has an announcement been made?
    what happened here?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    My finger is hovering over the sell,
    Why did you Buy.....:(......ahhhh...now I`m thinking this one could reach £1 pre spud
    One quick question, is Borders and southern s second drill before Fogl first drill ???


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 83 ✭✭tobehonestwithy


    While on the subject, I bought Pancontinental Oil & Gas NL (ASK: PCL) shares at 0.175 today with a target price of 0.35.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    Grecco wrote: »
    My finger is hovering over the sell,
    Why did you Buy.....:(......ahhhh...now I`m thinking this one could reach £1 pre spud
    One quick question, is Borders and southern s second drill before Fogl first drill ???

    Borders are going next with the Stebbing prospect (1280 mmboe). I mailed FOGl after the recent delay with Borders and they indicated that there was no change in the order, i.e. 2 Borders drills and then 2 FOGl drills.

    I'm in for FOGL's Loligo prospect (4.700 mmboe) which is third in the series of drills. If Stebbing is successful then you won't get FOGL at this price or anything near it. Also, factor in the farm out partner will be announced shortly by FOGL too.

    Perhaps we could change the title of this thread to Falkland Islands Oil Exploration, given the ongoing activity there, we could have lots to discuss in the next few months.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 790 ✭✭✭alanceltic


    Formation wrote: »
    This sounds like pure blind gambling.

    As opposed to investing in the likes of AIB or BOI you mean?

    Isnt every investment a gamble, nothing in life comes easy, a return on capital is your reward for risking your capital, no risk=no reward.

    If I offered you odds of 10:1 on calling the toss of a coin correctly what would your attitude be towards "gambling".

    With any oil exploration there will always be huge risks but the rewards can make these "gambles" very attractive and as has been pointed out, if you get in ahead of the curve it is possible to make very good returns without having to wait to see what side the coin falls on!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 790 ✭✭✭alanceltic


    yobr wrote: »
    Perhaps we could change the title of this thread to Falkland Islands Oil Exploration, given the ongoing activity there, we could have lots to discuss in the next few months.

    Agreed, I have asked a mod to look after this.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 790 ✭✭✭alanceltic


    Looks like FOGL have very good terms for their farm in, I like the way the mgt team her are thinking outside the box. They have been fairly prudent in holding off on paying for 3d seismics and time will tell if this is a good strategy but they are obviously lurking in the background to get as much information from borders 2 drills before doing anything. A very nice move to let them off the leash to do their 2 drills and prove up the south basin (or not) and THEN select where they want to use the drill on drill #3 & #4.

    All the while taking the decision to take on a farm in partner but because they are not cash poor they have played hardball with terms and it looks like the farm in partner will have to pay MORE due to the increase in SP over the last week or dilute their buy-in %.

    Not really surprised to see the SP of FOGL leapfrog BOR, for some time it looked like FOGL would trade in the shadows of BOD but the momentum is very much with FOGL and the short term looks very promising.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    I disagree, If the Stebbing result is successful, this won't necessarily have a halo effect on other oil companies in the falklands. When are the results of Stebbling due anyway??

    yobr wrote: »
    Borders are going next with the Stebbing prospect (1280 mmboe). I mailed FOGl after the recent delay with Borders and they indicated that there was no change in the order, i.e. 2 Borders drills and then 2 FOGl drills.

    I'm in for FOGL's Loligo prospect (4.700 mmboe) which is third in the series of drills. If Stebbing is successful then you won't get FOGL at this price or anything near it. Also, factor in the farm out partner will be announced shortly by FOGL too.

    Perhaps we could change the title of this thread to Falkland Islands Oil Exploration, given the ongoing activity there, we could have lots to discuss in the next few months.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    A "mod"????
    alanceltic wrote: »
    Agreed, I have asked a mod to look after this.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 980 ✭✭✭stevedublin


    Frank101 wrote: »
    A "mod"????

    a moderator. They manage and maintain the fora on boards, and have privileges to change thread titles etc. e.g. ixus on this forum.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    RKH found a well with nearly 500 million barrels of oil and its share price didn't rise that much at all.
    That's all we have to go on so far. Other than that there hasn't been any proper find down there, its all rumour
    I think I might climb on board BOR for the SP rise in anticipation before Stebbing and then escape to FOGL just before announcement.
    Later on in the year I might have better knowledge and might have the balls to risk keeping the shares after Loligo's result is announced
    I don't think that Stebbing holds much of a promise anyway, since its so near to Darwin which ended up being only gas condensate.
    What's the name of the 2nd well to be drilled by FOGL after loligo???


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    ARE u making an investment???


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    Frank101 wrote: »
    I disagree, If the Stebbing result is successful, this won't necessarily have a halo effect on other oil companies in the falklands. When are the results of Stebbling due anyway??

    I disagree. If Bor find a commercial oil find at Stebbing, it will have an affect on FOGL as it derisks some of their prospects.
    Frank101 wrote: »
    I think I might climb on board BOR for the SP rise in anticipation before Stebbing and then escape to FOGL just before announcement. Later on in the year I might have better knowledge and might have the balls to risk keeping the shares after Loligo's result is announced
    I don't think that Stebbing holds much of a promise anyway, since its so near to Darwin which ended up being only gas condensate.
    What's the name of the 2nd well to be drilled by FOGL after loligo???

    If you think Stebbing is going to be a duster would you not be better off getting into FOGL now?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    Ya, but you see FOGL haven't actually found anything yet, we have nothing to go on. I'd be more confident in RKH if they had FOGL's resources than FOGL themselves. But yeah that's what I'm thinking of doing anyway, skipping BOR.

    There is a map of all FOGL's wells at least. But I badly need to see a map of BOR's wells relative to FOGL's wells

    http://www.moneyam.com/InvestorsRoom/posts.php?page=23&tid=16040

    You wouldn't happen to know of a cheap reliable online stock broker. At the moment I trade in goodbody in my dad's name, but would like to set up my own account...
    yobr wrote: »
    I disagree. If Bor find a commercial oil find at Stebbing, it will have an affect on FOGL as it derisks some of their prospects.



    If you think Stebbing is going to be a duster would you not be better off getting into FOGL now?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    Actually no!.. guess what! Stebbing might be inside the oil window. Stebbing has the same source rock which has produced oil for Darwin, but this oil is now condensate. It may be oil for BOR. And no one would be expecting it, because everyone is so distracted by the potential of FOGL. I think I might cash out of Providence and invest in both of them☺



    yobr wrote: »
    I disagree. If Bor find a commercial oil find at Stebbing, it will have an affect on FOGL as it derisks some of their prospects.



    If you think Stebbing is going to be a duster would you not be better off getting into FOGL now?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    What's your latest verdict?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    Why isn't anyone posting.. Waahhahhhhhhhahaaaahaa!!!!!!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    Picked up a few more FOGL today.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BOR.L&it=le&display=news

    I see Bor has announced that they have spudded the Stebbing Prospect. 49 days or thereabouts...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,377 ✭✭✭Warper


    Anyone got an opinion on Dragon Oil - was thinking of buying a few


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    Was that past tense. You mean 49 days a time. I got quite confused


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭The Pontiac


    Anyone watching Ithaca Energy (IAE)? Listed in London & Toronto.

    The SP has fallen in recent weeks from $3.26 to a low today of $1.65. KNOC were in takeover talks with a reported offer in excess of $3.50 per share, but later pulled out. Other parties were also in talks, but due to various factors nothing materialised...

    "The Board has concluded that continuing the current process at this time was unlikely to produce a transaction with financial terms that properly reflect the value of the Company, particularly in light of the current volatility in global markets and the short term softening in Brent crude prices. In reaching this decision the Board of Directors has fully considered the Company's current value, its growth potential, the future value that can be delivered to
    shareholders and the responses of the third parties with whom discussions have been held.
    "

    Current production is circa 5,000 bopd. The Athena field has just commenced, which is expected to increase production to 7,000- 8,000 bopd.

    Ithaca announced last week it has acquired a loan facility for $400m and has a cash balance of $110..

    "The Facility is available to fund ongoing development activities and future asset acquisitions." "The Facility, combined with an existing cash balance of US$110.6 million (end Q1-2012) and the Company's projected cashflow from operations profile, means that Ithaca has the financial capacity to continue delivering material growth from both its existing asset portfolio and from new asset additions. More specifically, the enhanced size of the debt facility increases the Company's ability to build upon its track record for completing accretive asset acquisitions and creating long term shareholder value."...

    "The Company intends to continue to pursue attractive acquisitions and has the financial resources to invest up to US$250 million on suitable targets."

    "the Company forecasts cashflow from operations to increase from approximately US$150 million in 2012 to approximately US$575 million in 2014 in a US$100 barrel Brent crude price scenario." production from an average of approximately 7,000-8,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day ("boe/d") in the second half of 2012 to over 20,000 boe/d in 2014, following the anticipated start-up of production from the Greater Stella Area hub, with production over these years being predominantly oil.


    Ithaca has also hedged a large proportion of its oil production.. "Company has locked in a portion of 2012/13 oil production (over 1.million barrels) at a weighted average price of approx. US$118 per barrel, thereby securing approximately US$136 million of revenue."

    The company also has substantial tax allowances...

    "No tax payable in the medium term: the Company's existing tax allowances pool and projected capital investment programme means that zero tax will be levied on anticipated cashflows from operations in the medium term. Additionally, recent changes to the UK oil and gas taxation regime have returned considerable longer term value to the Company through material increases in the Supplementary Charge tax shelter applicable to all future developments within the current asset portfolio."

    2P Reserves of 52 Mboe.

    I bought in today @ $1.65. Very reluctant to buy any stocks at present, but this looks great value. The company is half the value a major oil company was willing to pay for only a few weeks ago.

    Very possible this will drop lower, and it might even test major support of $1.40 short-term. Of course, if global markets crash, it's anyone's guess how low it might fall.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    Too much for people to read, especially when its got nothing to do with FOGL. So basically u've both into a company that can't present "financial terms that properly reflect the value of the Company"


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Frank, one post about a company is too long for others to read?

    I am not actually surprised to read this as it reflects the laziness of most private investors.

    Ollie, looks like you may have found another interesting company there!


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭The Pontiac


    Frank101 wrote: »
    Too much for people to read, especially when its got nothing to do with FOGL.

    Where is FOGL in the thread title "Exploration/Oil Stocks" ?
    So basically u've both into a company that can't present "financial terms that properly reflect the value of the Company"

    Of course, why else would I buy?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭The Pontiac


    Ithaca Energy was a top pick on BNN tonight.

    Market Call [06-11-12] The '1:55 PM segment'. Starts at 4:16 into video.

    Picked up some more @$1.71 at close. It wouldn't surprise me if another bid for Ithaca was made. A 20,000 bopd producer in a few years. Great entry point now if planning to hold long-term and assuming the whole eurozone doesn't go tits up. It's certainty my favorite less risky oiler (if that's possible in these crap markets).


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    Big surge in volume in BOR in the last 30 minutes of trading today...could be news brewing soon...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭The Pontiac


    Brent slumped a hefty -3.6% today, so good to see Ithaca ending the day flat @ $1.81. Strong volume with 2m shares traded.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr




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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    yobr wrote: »
    http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/detail?code=cotn:BOR.L&it=le&display=news

    I see Bor has announced that they have spudded the Stebbing Prospect. 49 days or thereabouts...

    Have n`t been watching this of late but see the SP is back around 64p today. Could I be so lazy and get an update on whats been going on, it doesn't look like bad value at this price and it should be near TD soon


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    Grecco wrote: »
    Have n`t been watching this of late but see the SP is back around 64p today. Could I be so lazy and get an update on whats been going on, it doesn't look like bad value at this price and it should be near TD soon

    Not much happening, were just waiting. I reckon TD is on Sunday next and their agm is tomorrow. Should get more information then. They appear to have shut down all information flows following the leak of info on the first drilling. It is also not possible now to follow the Leiv Ericcson on Marinetraffic according to some of the boards..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,417 ✭✭✭The Pontiac


    Disappointing update from Ithaca a few days ago. Only 3 of the 4 wells from the new Athena field are producing and are waiting for a fix. Down to $1.50 now. Still great assets, but doesn't matter in these markets, release any bad news and expect a hefty drop.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 377 ✭✭yobr


    BOR AGM notes from "TheFlyingMule".......

    ......Good evening all. Here is my ‘summary’ of the AGM today. It’s a bit in depth but I hope it’s of some use. I do have a recording of it, which I will try to upload when I get more time but these are my thoughts on the morning’s events. I’ve reproduced my notes as best I can, though I can’t guarantee the accuracy and there are others that are far more qualified than me to comment on the technical aspects but, again, I hope it provides at least a flavour of the meeting.

    An excellent day all told. I’d recommend going to the AGMs of these companies – the opportunity for access to the BOD of multi million pound companies doesn’t come along very often!

    I imagine there were around 50 shareholders there (I think last year’s was 15 or so?) as well as various analysts, PR people and the BOD of course. The meeting started at 10:00 and went on for nearly an hour and a half, which left just half an hour for further questions on the sidelines before everyone was ushered out before the next corporate do commenced.

    Harry Dobson (HD; Chairman) kicked things off with the resolutions and they were all duly passed unanimously with a show of hands, including amusing witterings from HD proposing himself (I’m not sure Mr. Kozel will get the same reception for the remuneration resolution at GKP’s AGM in a few weeks..!).

    That wrapped up swiftly and Howard Obee (HO; CEO) then launched into the AGM presentation. This wasn’t the same presentation as is now on the website – more on that later – but he talked us through it with questions from the floor as we went along.

    HD emphasised at the beginning that there would be no discussion about Stebbing. He initially said it was ‘tight’ – my first thought was ‘oh no, not another DESaster with their tight sands at Rachel’. Then I thought he meant time was tight, as in there have been delays and, finally, with a request for clarification from the floor later on, he confirmed that ‘tight’ meant there was essentially a communications blackout regarding Stebbing! Drilling continues…

    Anyway, on with the show.

    Darwin:

    - The numbers given were for Darwin East and West. Shallow marine environment in the lower cretaceous.

    - Condensate samples were shipped back to the UK. It isn’t permissible to fly the samples on commercial flights so they could either spend several hundred thousand dollars chartering an aircraft or they could sent it by ship, which they obviously have done and it took four weeks to arrive.

    - The geological results were extremely close to prognosis with the top of the reservoir predicted to within one metre – not bad for rank wildcat drilling eh?! [Over the 4,800 metres, that’s an error of 0.02%!!]

    - Condensate value depends on its content. They BOD would not be drawn on ‘possibilities’ but their overall enthusiasm would suggest they are confident.

    - Gas Initially In Place figures were given (Min 1.88TCF, Most Likely 2.44, Max 2.88). Liquids content is subject to on-going analysis. 10 weeks from 18th June.

    - The TD of the drill ended up in water bearing sands. They felt there is a possibility of more sands beneath the water but seeing as they already had a valuable condensate find, they were content to leave that for another day. [I suspect they were wary of any more cost overruns and opted for prudence]

    - Delays were caused by problems with the rig itself and also due to taking a long time to drill through some of the rock formations. Extra casing needed to be set to stabilise the hole. Rank wildcatting will always be a laborious process so not unexpected imo.

    - Part of the extra time to drill through the rock was due to using water based drilling mud rather than oil based mud. It’s more environmentally friendly to use water but doesn’t perform as well it seems!

    - Two thirds of the $40 million cost overruns were related to the other supply costs of hiring a rig.

    - We were treated to the logs of Darwin; this information, along with the seismic slides, is not in the presentation on the website. I would love to pore over them in more detail rather than craning my neck at the slides from a distance but I’m sure Gramacho (delighted to put a face to the name at last but disappointed about the lack of elbow pads!) will be able to provide some colour. Without giving too much away, HO seemed quietly confident when discussing the gas readings.

    - MDT gave the Gas-condensate gradient information, which told them of the condensate.

    - The source rock wasn’t penetrated. HO believes that is still below where they drilled Darwin. Geochemistry testing of the cuttings to come in the next few weeks which may help answer whether the condensate was a result of the quality of the original source rock or whether it was a function of the thermal and migration history of the hydrocarbons that were generated. That will then aid prediction of distribution of oil, gas and condensate in the region.




    Rig:

    - Excellent team on board the LE. Having a high spec rig is all good and well but if there aren’t the appropriate operators, it’s potential won’t be realised. Fortunately there are excellent crews on the rig!

    - The rig itself is performing very well. A few days ago there were 18/19m waves and it carried on drilling.

    - Environmental conditions are less harsh than expected. Originally, it was thought they would be similar to those west of the Shetlands. It seems conditions are more benign than there. This is in part due to the southern tip of South America essentially acting as a windbreak to the large weather systems that come in from the west from the Pacific and protects the Islands from the worst conditions as the fetch distance is greatly reduced. [nice to know Argentina still helping out, even if they don’t want to ]

    - BOR own the rig contract. When it was asked whether there would be a fifth well in this current campaign, HO said it was a possibility but it would depend on timings as it is due to go to Scandinavia after finishing in the Falklands. [my impression was they weren’t particularly keen on drilling another well; they have enough on their plate and they don’t want to be rushed into something just for the sake of it.]



    Future Campaigns:

    - Appraisal of Darwin should be relatively straightforward.

    - The next campaign will have “a lot more wells.” Exploration will take place alongside the
    appraisals and would be at least 5 wells. Rig availability the key issue.

    - Open acreage will be of interest to them eventually – hence the relatively hush-hush nature of
    their communications strategy.

    - 3D; both new and re-processing existing. They were absolutely delighted with the ‘superb’ data and that was what put Darwin on the map, so to speak.

    - Currently tendering for 3D seismic with the aim of shooting it in the southern hemisphere summer. Currently seems to be a good availability of seismic boats.




    Prospects:

    - Next 3D to be shot to the north of Darwin.

    - Covington is a tilted fault block to the north of Darwin but only on 2D. This is a priority. It looks uncannily similar to how Darwin did on 2D. They then got the 3D and the rest is history! HO optimistic Covington will look similar to Darwin with the 3D.

    - Deeper targets of Stokes and Sullivan.

    - All prospects are a similar age and, with the positive result of Darwin, reduces their risk profiles compared with six months ago.

    - Burgess and Bute fan systems ‘down the slope’ in the deeper marine environment. As a rough indication, Bute could be 1 billion barrels for that sized fan.

    - Prospect inventory with resource estimates to come when they re-evaluate, including other new leads.

    - Darwin smallest prospect in terms of area (with 2.5TCF of gas).




    Funding:

    - Lots of options, especially thanks to having 100% of their acreage.

    - HD was extremely confident of getting any $$$ that may be required. He was fairly tight lipped but felt with the masses of top quality data they have, they wouldn’t have any trouble getting funds when needed.




    Communication Strategy:

    - It was inferred the BOD weren’t working in the best interest of shareholders by being so averse to publishing detailed information. HD was reasonably unimpressed with this suggestion I think. Commercially sensitive information is the key; it’s an excellent bargaining chip and should stop a hostile takeover.

    - Bulletin boards were discussed. iii called HO and said the site had had 23,000 hits leading up to Darwin results.

    - HD didn’t like bulletin boards as he felt they encouraged rumours with ramping/de-ramping etc. [Though, of course, if they were to release more information, there would probably be less speculation...]

    - Concerning relations with the Falklands Government, HO said they had excellent relations with them and found them to be extremely helpful as and when they required. When asked if he thought FIG may improve royalty terms to encourage development of Darwin if the condensate results weren’t so promising, he thought it unlikely seeing as the terms are already extremely favourable. He was more concerned they may shift the royalty rates up now they’ve found something!




    My 2p Worth:

    BOD very much in this for the long term with HD stating this will see him out until the end of his days. They do have incentives, in the form of 60-70 million shares between them.

    Technically, I think they’ve done a fantastic job. Their prospect inventory looks very interesting and they are keen to tick all the boxes in a timely and appropriate fashion. They will not be coerced into publishing data just for the sake of it. [this largely related to a question regarding the condensate yield. Gramacho very kindly offered his prediction, which I’m sure he’ll come to later]

    HD believes the market doesn’t understand the significance of Darwin.

    On a personal note, I like to see a strong technical side to the company and I have to say I was very impressed with the technical story at BOR. They seem to be going about things in the right way, which, given time, will reward patient investors.

    I would say they could work on marketing the company better. Yes, they have a long term view but a higher share price doesn’t do anyone any harm!

    That’s all for now; a long but very worthwhile day.

    GLA,

    TFM............


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    Borders and Southern not very far from releasing drilling results. Anyone else following?

    Considering taking a position but need to do some more research today.

    FOGL also looks interesting to say the least!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    Got out a while back but still have an interest in the outcome of the drill. Hope it works out for anyone still invested here


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 87 ✭✭bear_hunter


    i take it , you dont discuss any of the majors here

    BP , shell , exxon mobil etc

    if you do , was wondering if anyone else owns the french company TOT


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 185 ✭✭Frank101


    turbobaby wrote: »
    Borders and Southern not very far from releasing drilling results. Anyone else following?

    Considering taking a position but need to do some more research today.

    FOGL also looks interesting to say the least!


    Yeah, I'm making an effort to follow, they were due on June 29. There could be big gains here for the short haul. I don't know if I have enough time to do proper research, so I'd nearly be willing to buy out of boardom. I don't know though, I mean after they hit gas condensate at Darwin the share price dropped, because its apparently not a valuable as oil. Stebbing is so near Darwin, that I can't expect different in the best case scarnario.

    Let me know of any unique insight you have to this


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 927 ✭✭✭turbobaby


    I can't add anything to your analysis except for the fact that HRT's management and shareholders have discussed how Rockhopper's Sea Lion asset shows similarities to the Orange Basin off Namibia / South Africa.

    Basically the thesis is that the presence of oil in offshore Brazil should be mirrored in Angola and Namibia, just as the presence of oil offshore South Africa should be mirrored in the Falklands.

    It's obviously very far from being that simple, but I have an interest in the area and I am doing my best to educate myself on the finer details.

    I've taken a large punt on Namibia and now a little one on the Falklands!

    Edit to add:
    I don't know though, I mean after they hit gas condensate at Darwin the share price dropped, because its apparently not a valuable as oil. Stebbing is so near Darwin, that I can't expect different in the best case scarnario.

    Stebbing is shallower than Darwin so should be more conducive to oil as opposed to gas or condensate.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,007 ✭✭✭Grecco


    http://www.investegate.co.uk/Article.aspx?id=201207160743577086H

    A duster at stebbing
    SP down 70% in minutes, doesn't bode well for Falkland oil and gas, its SP is getting hammered too


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