Betfair Hurdle

Nulty

Not looked at it too closely yet but three appeal to me at first glance.

Third Intention, Sailors Warn and Abergavenney.

Thoughts?

RichieLawlor

Nulty wrote: »

Not looked at it too closely yet but three appeal to me at first glance.

Third Intention, Sailors Warn and Abergavenney.

Thoughts?

Off his current mark and if connections believe he is a CH horse Zarkandar should be a 1/2 shot

Similar to Denman off 161 in the Hennessy. He was allowed to start 5/1

the groutch

Pipe's horse Bobby Ewing e/w
trounced Menorah as a novice, and if retaining any of his ability after a long layoff, he could make his mark of 139 seem silly

Nulty

Zarkandar looks the most likely winner but it'll be his first run of the season and he looks short enough considering that. I'd rather take one that is likely aimed at this race as its main target. He might win it easily without breaking sweat but not for me at 4/1.

Bobby Ewing is interesting at a glance but he's sold out of NTDs and I can never back one like him first time off a long layoff in a massive handicap.

UrbanSea

I'd like to see Citizenship get a run. Won the MCR well at the weekend

hucklebuck

I would not be surprised to see Zarkandar win doing handstands, he is rated 151 and if he has improved like Grandouet he should have at least a stone up his sleeve, he would need to have it if he is to be considered a Champion Hurdle contender.

Its an odd prep race but Nicholls would hardly throw him in unless he had improved a fair bit, Brampour will save him carrying top weight too.

It makes sense leaving Brampour in but that may suggest he doesnt feel he has a hope in the Champion if he uses him to save Zarkandar too hard a race.

Huntey

hucklebuck wrote: »

It makes sense leaving Brampour in but that may suggest he doesnt feel he has a hope in the Champion if he uses him to save Zarkandar too hard a race.

Brampour doesn't have a hope barring injury to other animals.

Slattsy

Evening lads.
If Nicholls fancies Zarkandar for the CH as strongly as he says he does then he should really be winning this. 7/2 or 4/1 seems big, considering he's 7/1 for the CH. Runs wells fresh and seeing as its so close to Cheltenham, Nicholls is gonna have him fairly fit.

hucklebuck

Huntey wrote: »

Brampour doesn't have a hope barring injury to other animals.

I know, my point was more if Nicholls is prepared to give Brampour top weight on this I would suspect that Zarkandar is likely way ahead of him(high 160s) so a handicap would not be too hard on him off that mark and getting weight so it could be a decent prep.

Sorry if I am not making sense, too much study has twisted my melon:(

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

Evening lads.
If Nicholls fancies Zarkandar for the CH as strongly as he says he does then he should really be winning this. 7/2 or 4/1 seems big, considering he's 7/1 for the CH. Runs wells fresh and seeing as its so close to Cheltenham, Nicholls is gonna have him fairly fit.

Listen to Nicholls speak about Zarkander's first run last year (1.10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13UJN_53vGE) and his quick improvement in such a short space of time just a few weeks before he took the Triumph in nice style.

Nicholls admits he was largely caught by surprise by this horses schooling at home and seeing as he's done all that's asked of him in races since, I think we'll see a much improved animal on his reappearance. I honestly believe that this horse could be a huge improver and thrive so well at home that Nicholls feels he can pick and choose his races lightly. I think he should win the Betfair as if he's as game as Nicholls proclaims at home it should compensate for any race rustiness given his greater class within the field. I do not think he will beat the mighty Hurricane come Cheltenham but I do believe he will represent the best W/O Hurricane Fly bet and may look to the forecast also come the day. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated...the above are simply my opinions.

jimjamcos

Slattsy wrote: »

Evening lads.
If Nicholls fancies Zarkandar for the CH as strongly as he says he does then he should really be winning this. 7/2 or 4/1 seems big, considering he's 7/1 for the CH. Runs wells fresh and seeing as its so close to Cheltenham, Nicholls is gonna have him fairly fit.

Listen to Nicholls speak about Zarkander's first run last year (1.10 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=13UJN_53vGE) and his quick improvement in such a short space of time just a few weeks before he took the Triumph in nice style.

Nicholls admits he was largely caught by surprise by this horses schooling at home and seeing as he's done all that's asked of him in races since, I think we'll see a much improved animal on his reappearance. I honestly believe that this horse could be a huge improver and thrive so well at home that Nicholls feels he can pick and choose his races lightly. I think he should win the Betfair as if he's as game as Nicholls proclaims at home it should compensate for any race rustiness given his greater class within the field. I do not think he will beat the mighty Hurricane come Cheltenham but I do believe he will represent the best W/O Hurricane Fly bet and may look to the forecast also come the day. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated...the above are simply my opinions.

Nulty

Well good luck to all ye Zarkandar backers, I'm playing the percentages and going with Ellisons horse Abergavenny. The strong pace in the Greatwood showed him in best light and the race at Ascot can be over looked IMO. The horse won all but one of his races on the flat on good to firm and the ground at Ascot was unsuitable. Ellison is never far wrong with his horses and he believes Abergavenny has improved since the Greatwood despite his poor show in the Ladbroke. If he doesn't show here then good or good to firm ground later in the season will see him at his best.

He obviously needs Zarkandar to perform below expectation but I'd rather have a 33/1 shot than a 4/1 ticket in a 20 runner handicap.

hucklebuck

Nulty wrote: »

He obviously needs Zarkandar to perform below expectation but I'd rather have a 33/1 shot than a 4/1 ticket in a 20 runner handicap.

Good luck with Abergavanny Nulty.

As Richie said Denman was extremely backable in the Hennessy at 5/1 and believe me I got in the JCB, I will do the same again with Zarkandar. I can't believe Nicholls would put him in this as a Champion Hurdle prep if he is as genuine a contender as the Triumph form and the bookies lead us to believe.

RichieLawlor

Sometimes these big field handicaps are easy to work out. There is no need to go looking for big prices winners. The answer is right in front of you.

Remember Xenophon, Denman, Grand Crus and I know you can argue for every Denman there was a Long Run or Harchibald but the form is there, he is 2nd fav for the Champion and he isn't even top weight.

Basically instead of backing him Antepost for Cheltenham you should be steaming into him in the tote gold trophy.

Nulty

Richie, he won the Supreme almost a year ago. He hasn't been out since and I'm happy to find a better 3/1 shot in an easier race, with less runners and a horse who is guaranteed race fit. Prospect Wells, Michel le Bon, Aiteenthirtythree, Mon Parrain and others have let Nichols down in handicaps this year when people were shouting them from the rooftops. Not interested.

He will probably go off a 1/2 shot if his price keeps contracting but that won't make me regret not taking the price at 4/1. What will make me regret something is watching Abergavennys price move out 10 points on Betfair is the 2 days since I put 20 quid on him.

hucklebuck

Nulty wrote: »

Richie, he won the Supreme almost a year ago.

He won the Triumph, hence my cheesy JCB comment. Al Ferof won the Supreme.

You could always ew Zarkandar at 4/1 and not lose a cent but I would just smash into him.

RichieLawlor

Nulty wrote: »

Richie, he won the Supreme almost a year ago. He hasn't been out since and I'm happy to find a better 3/1 shot in an easier race, with less runners and a horse who is guaranteed race fit. Prospect Wells, Michel le Bon, Aiteenthirtythree, Mon Parrain and others have let Nichols down in handicaps this year when people were shouting them from the rooftops. Not interested.

He will probably go off a 1/2 shot if his price keeps contracting but that won't make me regret not taking the price at 4/1. What will make me regret something is watching Abergavennys price move out 10 points on Betfair is the 2 days since I put 20 quid on him.

He won the Aintree hurdle after the Triumph.

1833, Mon Parrain, Michel Le Bon and Prospect Wells are not proper grade one animals and none of them feature in the first 3 of the betting for any race at Cheltenham never mind the 2m championship for hurdlers.

UrbanSea

I've said it before,but I'd be very very surprised if Prospect Wells was a grade one horse

newuser89

Never backed any of them nichols horses myself in the handicaps but zarkander looks like a gd thing
Just like grandouet was a few weeks back lumped on it as I couldn't see a better horse in the race,worried that he would fall tho.
I don't back antipost so when it comes to the day it will prob be 2/1
If it was 4/1 I would bet e/w cause there is no way he should be out of top 3

Nulty

RichieLawlor wrote: »

He won the Aintree hurdle after the Triumph.

1833, Mon Parrain, Michel Le Bon and Prospect Wells are not proper grade one animals and none of them feature in the first 3 of the betting for any race at Cheltenham never mind the 2m championship for hurdlers.

Well I can't argue with that. Although I never said they were any of those things.

hucklebuck

newuser89 wrote: »

Never backed any of them nichols horses myself in the handicaps but zarkander looks like a gd thing
Just like grandouet was a few weeks back lumped on it as I couldn't see a better horse in the race,worried that he would fall tho.
I don't back antipost so when it comes to the day it will prob be 2/1
If it was 4/1 I would bet e/w cause there is no way he should be out of top 3

I think he could open up very close to his current price

MassDeb8r

I think that Zarkandar will next weekend win barring the ground turns into a bog. Look at the way he quicked to win the Adonis hurdle at Newbury and how he stayed on in the Triumph.

His Aintree win after the Triumph in the Grade 1 4yo race was underwhelming because Grandouet was brought down but he still won under pressure. If anything the Newbury race is going to show how much of a class act he is, I think he will win and go onto greater things in the stakes races later in the year, I'd really fancy him to run a good second to Hurricane in the Champion Hurdle.

As a 3yo in France he won the Prix Pointe du Hoc and was second in the Prix de Troarn, he's seriously high class and the best is yet to come.

jimjamcos

MassDeb8r wrote: »

I think that Zarkandar will next weekend win barring the ground turns into a bog. Look at the way he quicked to win the Adonis hurdle at Newbury and how he stayed on in the Triumph.

His Aintree win after the Triumph in the Grade 1 4yo race was underwhelming because Grandouet was brought down but he still won under pressure. If anything the Newbury race is going to show how much of a class act he is, I think he will win and go onto greater things in the stakes races later in the year, I'd really fancy him to run a good second to Hurricane in the Champion Hurdle.

As a 3yo in France he won the Prix Pointe du Hoc and was second in the Prix de Troarn, he's seriously high class and the best is yet to come.

I know I've been banging on about Zarkander winning this but watching Nicholls interview on At The Races today I'm beginning to worry slightly. The champion trainer seemed to be urging punters caution when speaking about Zarkander's chances next weekend, stating that it's not his priority for the horse to win the race with the Champion the sole aim. While obviously I would never have expected Nicholls to have the horse 100% fit for the Betfair Hurdle, the way he spoke struck me that he may only really be out for the spin.

Either way it doesn't affect myself as I'm already on, just said I'd share my worries on this!

I'm just hoping 60 or 70% will be enough for him to win the race...!:rolleyes:

Nulty

Thanks for the info jimjamcos

windy bee

I don't think Prospect Wells is a Group 1 horse either. He won a poor enough in a low rated Novices' Hurdle at Newbury and was beaten out of sight in the Tolworth where Ruby said he lost his action. You can pick holes in his flat form too!

I didn't like him in the Ladbroke hurdle and backed Raya Star that day (who was getting 8lbs off him) I wouldn't mind seeing Prospect Wells over a longer trip and he is entered in the Neptune hurdle as well as The Supreme.

Nicholls of course is covering himself saying that Saturday will be Zarkandar’s prep race for the Champion Hurdle but I think Zarkandar is the most likely winner. Nicholls has never won the Champion Hurdle but this boy might him a right chance (next year of course as Hurricane Fly will win in March!) Still though the Betfair Hurdle is a Grade 3 and I think Zarkandar will be too good for these.

newuser89

Final approach at 14/1 wouldn't be bad bet for a place.
11 lengths behind voler la vedette on seasonal reappearance over 2 mile 4F were he also made the running
Then won very easy over 2 miles.
Won 2 big handicap races last year so shows he can win in big fields and likes a strong pace

MassDeb8r

I watched Final Apprach last year in Cheltenham and was sure Get Me Out Of Here had beaten him in the County Hurdle, think he won by a nose or something like that. We all know the form the yard is in, wonder who will ride him

newuser89

Hopefully Paul Townend but probably Patrick Mullins if theres any decent racing in Ireland Townend will prob be left to the Irish runners

UrbanSea

MassDeb8r wrote: »

I watched Final Apprach last year in Cheltenham and was sure Get Me Out Of Here had beaten him in the County Hurdle, think he won by a nose or something like that. We all know the form the yard is in, wonder who will ride him

Didn't back it but was the happiest moment of the festival seeing the gamble on Get me Out of Here go astray. He had been set up for a gamble,I remember I had backed him on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot, where he was the most blatant...I'm not allowed say non trier...''disappointment'' :rolleyes: I saw in a long time

Johner

UrbanSea wrote: »

Didn't back it but was the happiest moment of the festival seeing the gamble on Get me Out of Here go astray. He had been set up for a gamble,I remember I had backed him on his seasonal reappearance at Ascot, where he was the most blatant...I'm not allowed say non trier...''disappointment'' :rolleyes: I saw in a long time

I think I backed him that day too, was 5/2 or something at Ascot thought it was a gift of a price. :rolleyes:

windy bee

Get me Out of Here was carrying top weight that day in Ascot when he was beaten at 5/2 but never even raised a gallop. He was pulled up at Aintree last year when favourite again.

He hasn't won a race since he won Saturday's renewal of the Betfair Hurdle in Newbury two years ago. Seems to have lost his way a bit, all his wins are over 2 miles though.

Trainer still thinks a lot of him but I prefer Darlan if he runs.

Zarkdanar for me still though.

UrbanSea

Johner wrote: »

I think I backed him that day too, was 5/2 or something at Ascot thought it was a gift of a price. :rolleyes:

windy bee wrote: »

Get me Out of Here was carrying top weight that day in Ascot when he was beaten at 5/2 but never even raised a gallop. He was pulled up at Aintree last year when favourite again.

He hasn't won a race since he won Saturday's renewal of the Betfair Hurdle in Newbury two years ago. Seems to have lost his way a bit, all his wins are over 2 miles though.

Trainer still thinks a lot of him but I prefer Darlan if he runs.

Zarkdanar for me still though.

Sorry Windy bee, I try not to talk through my pocket so tend to look at a race again if I think I've been hard done by, and the punters were screwed royally that day.

I remember Alaistar Down asked him about it a few weeks later, he didn't take it too well (McCoy)

windy bee

I never backed Get Me Out Of Here but was mystified at his Ascot run, it will be an important run for him on Saturday.

Didn't McCoy actually boycott Racing UK for a while after those comments, think it was Lydia Hislop and Simon Holt who spoke to him after it and you're right he wasn't too impressed.

Nulty

McCoy boycotted RUK for a while because of Lydia iirc. It made for some great non-racing racing news for a while.

I'm starting to pick up some interest in Ubi Ace and Orzare. Orzare will surely have a claimer on for Gary Moore. Don't think Josh can do the weight so he'll have to concede 5lbs+ or find a midget to ride it. The soft ground will be in his favour. Starting to concede that the ground won't suit Abergavenny. Clerk of the course says its soft, good to soft in places and they're not taking the covers up until the day of the race. That should more or less keep the ground as it is, wouldn't it?

Huntey

Nulty wrote: »

Clerk of the course says its soft, good to soft in places and they're not taking the covers up until the day of the race. That should more or less keep the ground as it is, wouldn't it?

Ground may be a bit dead.

Still haven't found a reason why Zarkandar won't be hacking up in this.

Slattsy

Ruby is able to ride Zarkandar now due to a Grade 1 race being on the same card since it was rearranged to Sandown.
Another plus. Can't find anything to beat him other than lack of a run to be honest.

That 10/3 available in Paddys is starting to look big.

newuser89

I will be putting on my bet in zarkander tomoro .
Better run and im goin to back e/w because theres no way this horse should be out of top 4 .
Nichols did say he had breathen op in summer so the horse could be better this year in anyway .

Nulty

One dimensional thread is one dimensional.

So, who comes second then?

Nulty

It seems that from reports that Orzare will only run if Brampour defects.

Colonel Sanders

Nicholls concedes, though, that Zarkandar has not been trained with Saturday's valuable handicap as his highest priority - although he could still easily turn out to be good enough to win.

http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/story_get.cgi?STORY_NAME=racing/12/02/06/manual_163750.html&BID=465

newuser89

If I back with paddy power tomoro and Zarkandar drifts on the day and gos off 4/1 will I get the 4/1 if he wins

UrbanSea

No newuser, ante post bets aren't GP

newuser89

Hmmm
Anyone think it would be better to back it on the day or do yas think the price will go down

longshotvalue

newuser89 wrote: »

I will be putting on my bet in zarkander tomoro .
Better run and im goin to back e/w because theres no way this horse should be out of top 4 .
Nichols did say he had breathen op in summer so the horse could be better this year in anyway .

why would you back a 10/3 shot EW, shurely that price if far too short to even consider it. Id say place value is very poor, as if hes not going to win he isnt going to be beat around the place to finish 3rd or 4th.. If he wins your only getting barly over half the win only odds as well..

UrbanSea

I stopped backing each way lately.

Citizenship is out, thought he would have a nice chance

newuser89

I think he will win and doubt he will be out of top for so in protecting my win stake

Hulk Hands

aidankkk wrote: »

why would you back a 10/3 shot EW, shurely that price if far too short to even consider it. Id say place value is very poor, as if hes not going to win he isnt going to be beat around the place to finish 3rd or 4th.. If he wins your only getting barly over half the win only odds as well..

What's wrong with backing a 10/3 shot e/w? From a 10 e/w stake you get 18.33 back at 1/4 the odds. I'm not saying Zarkandar is a great e/w bet but on plenty of occasions during the year you can get 1/4 the odds in 8/9/10 fields, where a 3 or 4/1 shot is basically guaranteed to come in the top 3. It's a backing situation the bookies hate because you're basically having a risk free win bet on. Dunno why people regard the 5/1 mark as the last point you can e/w back

windy bee

I'd see nothing wrong with putting 30 e/w on a 10/3 shot especially one the quality of Zarkandar, granted you'd want at least 5/1 to return your stake assuming the horse is placed. I reckon he will be shorter on the day, 5/2 I'm calling it!!

Hulk Hands

windy bee wrote: »

I'd see nothing wrong with putting 30 e/w on a 10/3 shot especially one the quality of Zarkandar, granted you'd want at least 5/1 to return your stake assuming the horse is placed. I reckon he will be shorter on the day, 5/2 I'm calling it!!

4/1 to get the full stake back. I also think he'll go off shorter.

Id be hesitant though to back Zarkandar e/w this weekend. While its hard to envisage 4 horses beating him, I also think that if Ruby knows he's not going to win coming to the last, he's likely to give Zarkandar an easy time of it. This horse has a bigger day ahead and won't be ridden out just to get a place. In a competitive handicap where many connections would be delighted with a place, the horse could go from 2/3 to 6/7 very quickly

windy bee

That's a fair point HH, Ruby knows the horse has bigger days ahead, he was clearly delighted about riding him saying he got a "get of of jail" card!

Slattsy

For backers of Zarkandar having Walsh on board for Saturday is a huge plus.

However one thing I don't understand is this; why oh why are they not keeping Jacob on him when he's going to be riding him at Cheltenham. Surely it's better for Jacob to ride him and get a feel before the big day. It can only benefit both jock and horse.