€1k to €10k

RyanTubs

Starting with €1000 balance with access to most betting sites besides the exchange ones. The reasons for starting this thread are that I lost close to 1k over the past few months because of stupid bets of 3+ teams so I want to use this for discipline/control purposes.

I hope to never bet on more than a double and to really look for spots of value rather than backing everything in sight :rolleyes:

Bet: QPR Wigan under 2.5 goals @ 4/5
Stake: €20
Remaining Balance: €980

Reasoning is that QPR have averaged .9 goals a game this season at home. Wigan have averaged .8 away. However, they have only scored 1 goal in the last 5 away. This all makes it look like serious lumpage but I'm factoring in Wigan's performance against City, in particular McCarthy who was excellent, and QPR's players wanting to impress new boss Hughes in their first home game. Also, I don't think I'll ever place more than 5% of the BR on a bet.

RyanTubs

Bet: Rangers Hibernian under 2.5 goals @ EVS
Stake: €25
Remaining Balance: €955

RyanTubs

Bet: Sunderland Norwich over 2.5 goals @ 10/11
Stake: €11
Remaining Balance: €944

RyanTubs

Bet: Fulham v West Brom @ 5/6
Stake: €30
Remaining Balance: €914

RyanTubs

RyanTubs wrote: »

Bet: Sunderland Norwich over 2.5 goals @ 10/11
Stake: €11
Remaining Balance: €944

Only winner so far; balance is €935.

For the coming weekend:

Bet: Swansea v Norwich over 2.5
Odds: 1/1
Stake: €15

Bet: Fulham v Stoke
Odds: EVS
Stake: €10

Bet: Southampton v Burnley
Odds: 5/6
Stake: €30

Balance: €880

RyanTubs

Bet: Rooney Anytime (Pool)
Odds: 6/5
Stake: €25

Bet: United to win by exactly 1 goal
Odds: 3/1
Stake: €10

RyanTubs

Balance: €845. Need a good weekend here.

Mate slow down and put a bit more reasoning behind the bets or this will turn from 1k to 0.

RyanTubs

All winners, balance up to €1080.

I apologise for the lack of write ups I will include them from here on. I was confident in those bets (as seen by some of the stakes) and none were shots in the dark despite possibly appearing so.

Well done, always remember its your log and your money

RyanTubs

Bet: Portadown to beat Bohs in the Setanta Cup
Odds: 5/4
Stake: €30

Bohs missing 4 players for this one so definitely worth a bet.

Bal: €1050

RyanTubs

Loser.

RyanTubs

Bet: Betfair Hurdle Final Approach
Stake: €25 EW
Odds: 12/1

Got this tip from a reliable source who I obviously have confidence in.

Balance: €1000

RyanTubs

Bet: AC Milan Arsenal under 2.5 goals (5/6)/Zenit Benfica under 2.5 goals double(8/13) double and singles

€15 on AC Arsenal unders returns €27.50
Double @ €10 returns €29.90

First leg ties of the last 16 CL knockout stages are notorious for the low yield of goals. I think 5/6 is a very attractive price here for two teams who haven't been firing across all cylinders lately. AC got a good result against Udinese but I saw the game and they didn't play extraordinary. If their form was better these last few games I would avoid the bet as Arsenal are vulnerable defensively but it's not so this is represents a medium sized bet to me.

Balance: €975

RyanTubs

Didn't see the horse race but I saw he came last. Hopefully no one else was on big - obviously said tipster has gone down in my books.

Arsenal were abysmal and AC played their best football in years. Unlucky imo.

Bet: Lee Clarke next Wolves manager
Site/Odds: Betfair/4.8
Stake: €25
Balance: €950

Again, this is a tip from someone that would be more in the know. Alright odds considering he's 3s elsewhere.

RyanTubs

Bet: Napoli to beat Chelsea
Site/Odds: Boyles - 2.3
Stake: €50
Balance: €900

Joint largest bet so far and I'm tempted to go larger. There are so many reasons why Napoli should win this and very little going for Chelsea imo. Form, relative tactics, home advantage, players' mindsets, etc. Nothing is going right for Chelsea atm. I'm tempted by the -1 on offer at 7/2 also. May be back for a bit more of this.

RyanTubs

Balance: €1015

Kicking myself I didn't get more on this game; probably the easiest game to predict so far this season (in terms of "close" games). Anyway onwards & upwards.

RyanTubs

Bet: Newcastle to make top 4
Odds: 20/1 various
Stake: €5

Value in those odds imho. Newcastle playing pretty well & sit 3 points off 4th position. Arsenal have a tough run in (Pool away, City home), Chelsea out of sorts. It's really hard to predict who'll get 4th to be honest but I think these odds are too big.

RyanTubs

OK so now it's time to blow this log right open. I was recently informed about a promo for the Cheltenham Arkle race whereby all losing bets are refunded if the fav, Sprinter Sacre wins. My mate who is big into the racing told me straight away that there is a huge low-risk gamble that you can take with this and after hearing his thoughts I gave it a day and placed €700 in bets on this. Basically I'm laying all horses over 33/1 for €270 to my €700 but if the fav wins its break even.

Horse Odds Stake Return
sprinter Sacre 5 4 € - Money back if he wins
peddlers cross 11 4 € 36.88 €138.50
Al Ferof 5 1 € 23.05 €138.50
Cue Card 8 1 € 15.37 €138.50
Menorah 11 1 €11.53 €138.50
Bog Warrior 20 1 € 6.59 €138.50
BlackStrairMountain 20 1 €6.59 €138.50
€ 100.00


You can check the prices & returns (they're not exactly 138.50 but only vary by 10 or 20 cent). There are 7 horses running at odds of 33/1 & higher.

I will happily take any comments or criticism on this bet but it is my choice and I am happy to have made it. I have only €400 of the bet made thus far as there is a €100 cap so I have to wait until the weekend to find another 3 PaddyPowers

Remaining Balance: €310

RyanTubs

For the benefit of those who are interested by this bet, my friend also sent me this option which he has invested €500 in:

Horse Odds Stake Return
sprinter Sacre 5 4 € - Money back if he wins
peddlers cross 11 4 € 40.00 € 150.00
Al Ferof 5 1 € 23.00 € 138.00
Cue Card 8 1 € 15.00 € 135.00
Menorah 11 1 € 11.00 € 132.00
Bog Warrior 20 1 € 5.50 € 115.50
BlackStrairMountain 20 1 € 5.50 € 115.50
€ 100.00


The bets are factored to the horse's odds of winning. I didn't chose this option as with my limited racing knowledge these horses are all well capable - BlackStairMtn is a horse I was told to keep an eye on around 12 months ago.

turbobaby

OK, to sum it up, you are betting 700 quid with the following three potential outcomes:

1) The favourite wins and you break even.
2) A horse under 33/1 (excluding the favourite) wins and you win about 960 quid.
3) An outside at 33/1 or higher wins and you lose 700

It reminds me of a draw no bet in the football with you backing a good away team who might win but are unlikely to lose. A bit like Ireland away to Armenia!

It's nice to see someone thinking outside the box so I wish you well.

PS, as the prices on Betfair are likely to be higher you could probably do this for every race. i.e. back the favourite to break even point and then back the field up to 25/1 or so to win.

RyanTubs

turbobaby wrote: »

OK, to sum it up, you are betting 700 quid with the following three potential outcomes:

1) The favourite wins and you break even.
2) A horse under 33/1 (excluding the favourite) wins and you win about 960 quid.
3) An outside at 33/1 or higher wins and you lose 700

It reminds me of a draw no bet in the football with you backing a good away team who might win but are unlikely to lose. A bit like Ireland away to Armenia!

It's nice to see someone thinking outside the box so I wish you well.

PS, as the prices on Betfair are likely to be higher you could probably do this for every race. i.e. back the favourite to break even point and then back the field up to 25/1 or so to win.

Thanks mate. Not sure what you mean at the end I'm sure the prices on each horse are better on Betfair but without the money back special it could never be profitable I'd imagine?

turbobaby

What I'm getting at is that PP are able to offer this special because their prices are worse than those offered by Betfair. I just had a proper look there and I dont think the prices are sufficiently better on Betfair in order to compensate for the money back special on PP. Good luck!

turbobaby

turbobaby wrote: »

OK, to sum it up, you are betting 700 quid with the following three potential outcomes:

1) The favourite wins and you break even.
2) A horse under 33/1 (excluding the favourite) wins and you win about 960 quid.
3) An outside at 33/1 or higher wins and you lose 700

....but risking 700 to make 270, the odds are in your favour and its very decent value but its somewhat rare value and you're risking most of your betting bank, not really a great strategy really if it goes wrong your more or less up sh1t creek
I'd be more inclined to just back the fav for 50 as that was your biggest bet so far.

BlueBaron

Well let me give you one piece of advice, Bog Warrior wont run at Cheltenham so stop backing him as you wont get your money back, also your taking a chance that all of these horses will run, remember no money back if they don't

RyanTubs

RyanTubs wrote: »

Bet: Newcastle to make top 4
Odds: 20/1 various
Stake: €5

Value in those odds imho. Newcastle playing pretty well & sit 3 points off 4th position. Arsenal have a tough run in (Pool away, City home), Chelsea out of sorts. It's really hard to predict who'll get 4th to be honest but I think these odds are too big.

Haven't updated this as I've been super busy with work. The Chelt bet was a failure as Bog Warrior didn't run so I made a loss of around €40. The above bet is the only open one I have but it's looking good atm.

Balance: €964

RyanTubs

Got an email from B365 with their regular €50 special offer where you place a bet pre-game & in-running and are refunded the stake (up to €50) should the first bet lose. I've done these bets countless times - the best strategy is to take it on for full value at €100 & place the 2 bets on the same outcome. So I've backed City to win @6/5 and will place the same bet at kick off thus giving me potential returns of €170 for €50 investment.

Balance: €914

RyanTubs

€107.62 profit from the City game - 6/5 pre & 20/21 in-running.

Balance: €1071.62

RyanTubs

Bet: Torres first scorer v Newcastle
Odds: 5/1 B365
Stake: €10

Will be placing this bet if Torres starts. Just posting bets now because I probably won't be on again until next week.

Both teams to score in New-City
€25 @4/5 w B365

My standout bet for the weekend is Fulham at home to a very out of form Sunderland who can't wait to see the season end.

Odds of 21/20 on PP which is very generous & I'm placing €70 on this.

Bet: QPR win v Stoke @ 21/20 with PP. Stake: €10.

RyanTubs

Bet: Samba King in the last at Newmarket today
Stake: €20.62 @ 4/1 (various)
Balance: €1100

RyanTubs

Euros 2012 Bets:

France vs England, €25 @ 8/5
France to top group, €20 @ 6/4
Straight forecast: Spain/Germany, €10 @ 14/1
Straight forecast: Germany/Spain €10 @ 15/1
Group A to be lowest scoring, €20 @ 2/1
Poland v Greece, €15 @ EVS
Spain v Italy, €30 @ 4/5
Netherlands v Portugal, €28 @ 13/14
Ireland v Croatia, €10 on draw @ 9/4
Greece v Czech Rep, €15 @ 85/40
Denmark v Portugal, €21 @ 20/21
Germany v Netherlands, €20 @ 11/8
Poland v Czech Rep, €10 @ 8/5
France v Sweden, €20 @ 21/20
Jelavic to be Croatia's top scorer, €25 @ 5/1
Lewandowski to be Poland's top scorer, €15 @ 15/8
McGeady to be Ireland's top scorer, €5 @ 25/1
Llorente to be Euros top scorer, €20 EW @ 20/1
Muller to be Euros top scorer, €10 EW @ 35/1
Jelavic to be Euros top scorer, €10 EW @ 66/1


Remaining Balance: €721

RyanTubs

Euros 2012 Bets:

France vs England, €25 @ 8/5 - Loss
France to top group, €20 @ 6/4 - Loss
Straight forecast: Spain/Germany, €10 @ 14/1 - Loss
Straight forecast: Germany/Spain €10 @ 15/1 - Loss
Group A to be lowest scoring, €20 @ 2/1 - Return €60
Poland v Greece, €15 @ EVS - Loss
Spain v Italy, €30 @ 4/5 - Loss
Netherlands v Portugal, €28 @ 13/14 - Loss
Ireland v Croatia, €10 on draw @ 9/4 - Loss
Greece v Czech Rep, €15 @ 85/40 - Loss
Denmark v Portugal, €21 @ 20/21 - Return €41
Germany v Netherlands, €20 @ 11/8 - Return €47.50
Poland v Czech Rep, €10 @ 8/5 - Loss
France v Sweden, €20 @ 21/20 - Return €41
Jelavic to be Croatia's top scorer, €25 @ 5/1 - Loss
Lewandowski to be Poland's top scorer, €15 @ 15/8 - Return €21.50
McGeady to be Ireland's top scorer, €5 @ 25/1 - Loss
Llorente to be Euros top scorer, €20 EW @ 20/1 - Loss
Muller to be Euros top scorer, €10 EW @ 35/1 - Loss
Jelavic to be Euros top scorer, €10 EW @ 66/1 - Loss


Remaining Balance: €932

RyanTubs

Euros were tough for most & I think a lot of people will have suffered losses - I got lucky and was tipped Dzagoev the day it kicked off and got on him at 125s. Didn't post it here so not included in balance. The U19 Euros is kicking off this week & a friend of mine is very knowledgeable in the area so I'm putting fate in what he has told me:

Portugal outright 5s (Bwin) - Stake €25
England to beat Croatia 39/50 (WBX) - Stake €25
Portugal -1 v Estonia 4/6 (Boyles) - Stake €125
Portugal -2 v Estonia 2s (Sporting Bet) - Stake €30
Portugal/Portugal v Estonia 4/6 (PP) - Stake €50
Spain -1 v Greece 6/5 (PP) - Stake €25

Balance: €652

RyanTubs

RyanTubs wrote: »

Euros were tough for most & I think a lot of people will have suffered losses - I got lucky and was tipped Dzagoev the day it kicked off and got on him at 125s. Didn't post it here so not included in balance. The U19 Euros is kicking off this week & a friend of mine is very knowledgeable in the area so I'm putting fate in what he has told me:

Portugal outright 5s (Bwin) - Stake €25
England to beat Croatia 39/50 (WBX) - Stake €25 - Loss
Portugal -1 v Estonia 4/6 (Boyles) - Stake €125 - Return €208
Portugal -2 v Estonia 2s (Sporting Bet) - Stake €30 - Return €90
Portugal/Portugal v Estonia 4/6 (PP) - Stake €50 - Return €83
Spain -1 v Greece 6/5 (PP) - Stake €25 - Loss

Balance: €652

Good start to the tournament for Portugal, Spain & England didn't deliver. Spain looked vulnerable in the second half so I might take Portugal in their match on Friday.

Balance: €1033.

BKC

RyanTubs wrote: »

France v Sweden, €20 @ 21/20 - Return €41

Sweden beat France 2-0?