Will a non-Old Firm team ever win the SPL again?

MrJoeSoap

So...

Christmas has come and gone, a new year is upon us, and Rangers and Celtic are echelons clear at the top of the SPL, battling it out for the top spot yet again.

I'm no longer a young man, yet still have yet to see a non Rangers or Celtic champion in Scotland. Has everyone else in the country not given up altogether yet? Is winning the occasional cup, finishing third and getting a transfer to the big two still the dream of every budding footballer in the land?

There was talk a few years ago that always seems to resurface every now and then about the Old Firm teams joining the "English" leagues along with Swansea, Cardiff etc... but it never seems to be seriously considered.

Also, if your answer to the thread title is "Yes", please qualify it with a "Because..." and an approximate date to within a decade.

MrJockSoap

Zebra3

Last non-Old Firm Scottish League winning manager? Alex Ferguson.

A long time ago now, but unlikely that both Rangers and Celtic will dominate for ever.

Leiva

I'm sure they will but I will be long dead , and I'm only 7 .

tommyhaas

How could another side challenge? Unless someone is prepared to invest their own money in a club for no return, the gap in revenue means they simply can't unless Celtic and Rangers were to leave the SPL. Even if they did though, that would be hugely detrimental to the league financially as the broadcasting rights would then be near worthless. If Rangers tax case goes against them, they won't compete for the foreseeable future either

I reckon its the same in Spain now as well. Looking at the percentage of TV revenue Barca and Real get relative to the rest of the league (35% of total is divided between the two), coupled with the additional revenue they themselves generate, its near impossible for anyone to compete for the foreseeable future, without Malaga like funding

stovelid

People get aggrieved about the closed shop of the SPL but how many clubs in the EPL have a genuine chance of winning the league in the next ten years?

Phoenix Park

stovelid wrote: »

People get aggrieved about the closed shop of the SPL but how many clubs in the EPL have a genuine chance of winning the league in the next ten years?

6

dreamers75

Only if they were jewish.

mr.noobie

never gonna happen, or at least it feels that way to me

Pride Fighter

I think if anyone can do it, it would be both the Edinburgh clubs, Aberdeen, Kilmarnock and at a stretch Dundee United. But it would require extreme luck in that about 10 very talented youngsters come through and for a relatively good amount of cash to spend.

It possibly could have happened in 05-06 if Romanov did not interfere with Hearts, George Burley might have won them the league. They were playing super stuff before he was sacked after winning 8 games in a row.

MrJoeSoap

stovelid wrote: »

People get aggrieved about the closed shop of the SPL but how many clubs in the EPL have a genuine chance of winning the league in the next ten years?

The EPL is a lottery compared to Scotland. There's a huge difference between 2 winners in the last 25 years in Scotland and 7 in England over the same period.

And that is comparing it to probably the 3rd least competitive major league in Europe over that timeframe (behind Spain), though I haven't done any research on that particular claim so feel free to correct me on that.

tommyhaas

The top two in England have a better points per game ratio (City better then Celtic, Utd and Rangers equal) this season. That would suggest that this year, the dominance of the top 2 in England is no different to that of Scotland

MrJoeSoap

tommyhaas wrote: »

The top two in England have a better points per game ratio (City better then Celtic, Utd and Rangers equal) this season. That would suggest that this year, the dominance of the top 2 in England is no different to that of Scotland

Not a completely valid comparison when there are different numbers of teams in the league, really, although it is a fair point.

But I'm not basing this on one season's statistics. 25 years is a huge time for two teams to dominate a league. I don't see how anyone could argue against it lasting another 10, 15 or 25 years.

Out of interest, does anyone know the closest that a team has got to finishing 2nd in the last 10-15 years or so?

RoryMac

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

tommyhaas wrote: »

The top two in England have a better points per game ratio (City better then Celtic, Utd and Rangers equal) this season. That would suggest that this year, the dominance of the top 2 in England is no different to that of Scotland

Not a completely valid comparison when there are different numbers of teams in the league, really, although it is a fair point.

But I'm not basing this on one season's statistics. 25 years is a huge time for two teams to dominate a league. I don't see how anyone could argue against it lasting another 10, 15 or 25 years.

Out of interest, does anyone know the closest that a team has got to finishing 2nd in the last 10-15 years or so?

Hearts finished 2nd in 06!

Warper

EPL Winners


1992–93

Manchester United

1993–94

Manchester United

1994–95

Blackburn Rovers

1995-96

Manchester United

1996–97

Manchester United

1997–98

Arsenal

1998–99

Manchester United

1999–2000

Manchester United

2000–01

Manchester United

2001–02

Arsenal

2002–03

Manchester United

2003–04

Arsenal

2004–05

Chelsea

2005–06

Chelsea

2006–07

Manchester United

2007–08

Manchester United

2008–09

Manchester United

2009–10

Chelsea

2010–11

Manchester United

MrJoeSoap

RoryMac wrote: »

Hearts finished 2nd in 06!

Hadn't realised that. Let me rephrase.

Out of interest, does anyone know the closest that another team has got to finishing 1st in the last 10-15 years or so?

Not sure why warper listed the EPL winners either... ?

Daemos

Yes, because football moves on. Only a few hours ago me and my friends were laughing that Norwich bet Bayern Munich in the UEFA Cup, that Aston Villa had a habit of finishing 2nde, and that Arsenal, Chelsea, and Man City all finished mid-table, with Wimbledon in the top 6. Nothing stays the same. All of the top teams today will be relegated one day, I have no doubt

Dotrel

I didn't watch footy back in the 80's (when the lesser teams could still compete with Rangers/Celtic) but I get the impression that old firm were of a much weaker quality at that time rather than the chasing pack being better than they are now.

All it would take would be a similar dip in quality from the big two in order to let the others back in . How that would happen I don't know, but it's not unprecedented. The way Rangers/Celtic are slowly but surely getting frozen out of the CL party would suggest this is possible.

By comparison I could never see another club in Scotland becoming as big/powerful as Celtic/Rangers are now and competing with them at their current or traditional level, so I'd reckon the former is the likely scenario for a third team.

Every monopoly does break up eventually. Back in the 90's Rosenberg looked like they were going to win every Norwegian title until the end of time but that run eventually did end. Same with Penerol/Nacional in Uruguay. They pretty much owned the title between them from the beginning (and still do to an extent) but in the last decade or so some other teams have also been able to wrestle the title away from them.

RoryMac

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

RoryMac wrote: »

Hearts finished 2nd in 06!

Hadn't realised that. Let me rephrase.

Out of interest, does anyone know the closest that another team has got to finishing 1st in the last 10-15 years or so?

Not sure why warper listed the EPL winners either... ?

From a quick look it seems 17 point again Hearts in 2005-06.

It's hard to see any of the other clubs putting up a challenge to Celtic & Rangers, the tv deal pays them a tiny amount and they keep themselves afloat by selling their best talent. For instance if you look at the players Hibs brought through and sold in the last 5-10 years they could easily have had a side capable of challenging for the title but finances dictated those players needed to be sold to make ends meet.

I can only see this gulf widening with teams like Hearts in massive financial trouble.

fullstop

Daemos wrote: »

Aston Villa had a habit of finishing 2nde, a

Hardly a habit really, only once since the PL started, in 1993 and again in 1990. Last time before that was 1933!

~Rebel~

Instead of Celtic and Rangers joining the Premiership, I reckon Sunderland and Newcastle should pop across the border and dominate

Might make no financial sense whatsoever, but would be a great bit of craic...

ColeTrain

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

Not sure why warper listed the EPL winners either... ?

It's obvious enough, to show that the Premiership isn't exactly easy to win either. Chelsea only won it because they were bought by a billionaire.


If another SPL team is going to make the breakthrough then they will need big financial backing. Any investor will know that they are unlikely to see a return on their money. The other SPL clubs just don't have the gates every week.

~Rebel~ wrote: »

Instead of Celtic and Rangers joining the Premiership, I reckon Sunderland and Newcastle should pop across the border and dominate

Might make no financial sense whatsoever, but would be a great bit of craic...

They might find it tricky without the TV money, it would make it interesting all right though!

MrJoeSoap

ColeTrain wrote: »

It's obvious enough, to show that the Premiership isn't exactly easy to win either. Chelsea only won it because they were bought by a billionaire.

I'd imagine most of the people on here know the list of Premiership winners by heart at this stage. It doesn't really have much relevance to the thread at hand, especially not without some sort of context or explanation. All leagues are difficult to win, but the gap in Scotland over the past quarter-century just happens to be greater than any other league I know of.

ColeTrain

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

I'd imagine most of the people on here know the list of Premiership winners by heart at this stage. It doesn't really have much relevance to the thread at hand, especially not without some sort of context or explanation. All leagues are difficult to win, but the gap in Scotland over the past quarter-century just happens to be greater than any other league I know of.

Well it has relevance, it shows that a league on it's border is dominated by a few teams as well.

The explanation for the two club dominance in the SPL is simple. Two big clubs in a otherwise small time league.

As I said, the only way another club can make the breakthrough is by spending money and that's not going to happen anytime soon.

KeithAFC

Yes.

FC Rangers in a few years time. ..........

Dempsey

~Rebel~ wrote: »

Instead of Celtic and Rangers joining the Premiership, I reckon Sunderland and Newcastle should pop across the border and dominate

Might make no financial sense whatsoever, but would be a great bit of craic...

Not a hope of that happening without EPL finances, people easily forget about the financial climate of the SPL.

Hearts had a real chance to break up the dominance of Celtic and Rangers, unfortunately for them and the SPL, Mad Vlad continually hit the self destruct button. He now wants £50m for Hearts, LOL!

Hibs could have been there or there abouts but they continually sold their best prospects and their current period of instability is a result of that. Aberdeen are too busy trying to build a new stadium to be bothered with football!

Also, the continual collapse of TV deals have hurt all the other SPL clubs far more than Celtic or Rangers and those problems have also made the other clubs reliant on revenue from playing the Old Firm so many times a season to the point where they wont consider improving the structure of professional game or listen to the majority of fans who are demanding an expansion to the amount of teams in the SPL and improving funding to 1st division. Sky have also their part to play in the problem by demanding 4 Old Firm games a season.

TLDR? Nobody is looking after the long term interests of Scottish Football.

Eirebear

of course a team outside of the Old Firm can win it.

Give it 5 years and F.C Rangers of Glasgow will be right up there!

bobbysands81

~Rebel~ wrote: »

Instead of Celtic and Rangers joining the Premiership, I reckon Sunderland and Newcastle should pop across the border and dominate

Might make no financial sense whatsoever, but would be a great bit of craic...

Without EPL TV money Sunderland and Newcastle wouldn't be far off the size of The Hearts.

stovelid

Phoenix Park wrote: »

6

Nice mongo thanks harvester post there but it's not really true. Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea or Arsenal almost definitely not win the EPL this season. Liverpool have not won the league for 23(?) years and Spurs in over 50(?). City needed a gigantic cash infusion to be within touching distance of their first title in a similar period of time.

If you take the last 10 EPL titles, they have benn carved up between 3 teams. And that's in a league of 20 as opposed to between 2 teams in a league of 12 in the SPL.

The fact that the 'race for fourth' has assumed such cachet now speaks volumes. It's basically a conoslation competition within a closed competitive cartel - unless some arab decides to do a City for you.

In faiirness, a couple of big teams will always dominate leagues but it's no use pointing the finger at just one.

ArmaniJeanss

stovelid wrote: »

Nice mongo thanks harvester post there but it's not really true. Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea or Arsenal almost definitely not win the EPL this season. Liverpool have not won the league for 23(?) years and Spurs in over 50(?). City needed a gigantic cash infusion to be within touching distance of their first title in a similar period of time.

If you take the last 10 EPL titles, they have benn carved up between 3 teams. And that's in a league of 20 as opposed to between 2 teams in a league of 12 in the SPL.

The fact that the 'race for fourth' has assumed such cachet now speaks volumes. It's basically a conoslation competition within a closed competitive cartel - unless some arab decides to do a City for you.

In faiirness, a couple of big teams will always dominate leagues but it's no use pointing the finger at just one.

The SPL is way out ahead in terms of uncompetiveness.
Even if Liverpool and Tottenham ultimately disappoint and continue their 20/50 year winless streak, come next August there'll be a betting market with 4 teams less than 10/1, and 6 teams less than 20/1.

Scotland will be 5/6 Celtic, 10/11 Rangers, 150/1 bar.

stovelid

ArmaniJeanss wrote: »

Even if Liverpool and Tottenham ultimately disappoint

They more than likely definitely will unless they get a oligarch on board. Something you're not going to see in the more tepid commericial waters of the SPL.

I can understand that the EPL is beloved and all that but the fact remains that most clubs clubs are making up the number every year - just like the league we're slating in the OP. Or 16 of them if you take the Champions League berths into account.

Wolf Club

stovelid wrote: »

People get aggrieved about the closed shop of the SPL but how many clubs in the EPL have a genuine chance of winning the league in the next ten years?

Depends on investment I'd say. I doubt many would have said 5 years ago that Man City would be challenging for the league now.

I am pie

Wolf Club wrote: »

Depends on investment I'd say. I doubt many would have said 5 years ago that Man City would be challenging for the league now.

Scottish football doesn't have the global market to attract the investment which would lift the also rans to the same standard as the Old Firm.

TaosHum

The thing I dont understand is why there is such a gap between the two clubs of Edinburgh and the two in Glasgow in all aspects and to the extent that it is.

Considering the size of Edinburgh and that presumably football is the biggest sport there, I'd expect them to be more competitive than they are.

pickarooney

ColeTrain wrote: »

Well it has relevance, it shows that a league on it's border is dominated by a few teams as well.

The explanation for the two club dominance in the SPL is simple. Two big clubs in a otherwise small time league.

As I said, the only way another club can make the breakthrough is by spending money and that's not going to happen anytime soon.

The difference in England is that clubs like Blackburn and Leeds have since fallen completely out of contention while Manchester City have gone through the floor and then re-emerged as likely league winners while the low point of the Old Firm has been one of them once finishing third.

The most likely scenario for another club winning in Scotland is the arse completely falling out of the bag for the big two leaving them in the same state as the smaller teams.

DoctorGonzo08

TaosHum wrote: »

The thing I dont understand is why there is such a gap between the two clubs of Edinburgh and the two in Glasgow in all aspects and to the extent that it is.

Considering the size of Edinburgh and that presumably football is the biggest sport there, I'd expect them to be more competitive than they are.

Is Rugby not classed as Edinburghs main sport? Plus you have to acknoledge the investment into the two Glasgow teams because of their histories and marketing.

Ferris_Bueller

It would take something out of the ordinary for another team to win it, such as a crop of talented young players coming through at once or a very young talented manager taking over one of the other SPL teams. Would love to see it happen, would be a great achievement for another club to knock Celtic and Rangers off the top.

Off topic: but this thread reminded me of Rosenborgs dominance in Norway, what happened there where they won 13 leagues in a row and then the next season didn't even finish top 3? They have won it 3 times again since though.

ironbluedun

Ferris_Bueller wrote: »

such as a crop of talented young players coming through at once or a very young talented manager taking over one of the other SPL teams.

such good young talent would be sold by the other clubs and the manger gone to greener pastures

cant see it happening anytime soon.

The_Kew_Tour

TaosHum wrote: »

The thing I dont understand is why there is such a gap between the two clubs of Edinburgh and the two in Glasgow in all aspects and to the extent that it is.

Because Celtic and Rangers have their Glory Hunting fans from this island:pac::pac:

Where To

I can see St.Mirren becoming a major challenger in 5-10 years time tbh.

stovelid

Ferris_Bueller wrote: »

such as a crop of talented young players coming through at once

That's why we have mid-season transfer windows so the big boys don't have to wait until the end of the season to go shopping.

Spread

Never say Never, Jemmy!

premierstone

Dotrel wrote: »

I didn't watch footy back in the 80's (when the lesser teams could still compete with Rangers/Celtic) but I get the impression that old firm were of a much weaker quality at that time rather than the chasing pack being better than they are now.

No this isnt true at all if anything in relative terms the Old Firm were stronger back then than they are now, Aberdeen, Dundee, Hearts all had very successfull runs in europe around that time.

The_Kew_Tour

Tbh Hibs would win the league if they had same squad from 2000 now and sure lot can be said for other teams in particular Hearts.

Scottish football is nothing to what is was even 10 years ago.

Can't see the league going to club outside Glasgow for quite some time.

A Dub in Glasgo

The SPL has gone downhill and the big clubs will always have the more talented team.

Slightly off topic question: when was the last time the EPL was genuinely a 3+ horse race for the title?

everdead.ie

A Dub in Glasgo wrote: »

The SPL has gone downhill and the big clubs will always have the more talented team.

Slightly off topic question: when was the last time the EPL was genuinely a 3+ horse race for the title?

Probably 08/09 United, Liverpool and Chelsea

A Dub in Glasgo

Thanks

Brendan97

no
(unless van persie moves to hibernian)

The_Kew_Tour

Being very honest Hibs could buy Xavi, Iniesta and Messi and we still be ****.

Son Of A Vidic

stovelid wrote: »

People get aggrieved about the closed shop of the SPL but how many clubs in the EPL have a genuine chance of winning the league in the next ten years?

Significantly more than the Scottish borefest.

kryogen

Probably not for a very very long time, Id be willing to bet it doesnt happen in my lifetime, but what would be the point of that!

No other team can compete with them over the course of a season tbh

One off games yes, maybe put a little run of 5-6 good results on the bounce, but thats it, over the course of the season nobody will be able to keep pace with them without serious investment, and who is going to do that knowing he/she will never actually get any financial return on their money

MrJoeSoap

kryogen wrote: »

Probably not for a very very long time, Id be willing to bet it doesnt happen in my lifetime, but what would be the point of that!

Paid to the estate of Kryogen, so your great, great, great grandchildren can live off your generous nature.