January 2012 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Mayan you, a dog named Boo and everyone else welcome to enter the never-ending Boards forecast contest, 2012 edition (so much for Doomsday).

The Jan 2012 contest is in this post, after a rather long bit about the rules. If you don't care about the rules, scroll down and then down again.

First, a brief discussion of the scoring rules for 2012, same as 2011 basically.

The IMT is worth 25 points each month, one deduction per 0.1 error.

The max and min temps are worth 20 each, same deductions.

The precip, given as percentage of normal, is worth 15 points, and errors are assessed per 3% increments (for example, if you're 15% out, you'll get 10 pts).

The sunshine, also given as a percentage of normal, is worth 10 points, and errors are assessed in 5% increments.

The bonus questions are worth 10 points and are scored by rank order every time. As we've been attracting 40-50 entrants in recent years, I have taken to giving the top four the max of 10 points and scoring down from there in groups of four, leaving some number out in the cold. If we get larger fields of entrants, this may expand, I will keep it roughly the same proportions.

Now, a final point on scoring, two years ago I introduced the wildly popular "minimum scoring progression rule" which nobody but me understands, but benefits from in any case, sort of like Germany's finance ministry. Or perhaps the opposite of that, I don't claim to understand economics, after all, I'm paying you for weather forecasts.

How does the rule work? When reality raises its ugly head and looks much different from most of our forecasts, then the scores must be at least the values of the minimum progressions. Some can be higher if people guess very well, but in rank order, none can be lower than this:

(for 25 pt IMT) ... 23, 20, 18, 16, 14, 12, 11, 10 etc to 1.

(for 20 pt temps) ... 18, 16, 14, 12, 11, 10 etc to 1.

(for 15 pt precip) ... 14, 13, 12, 11, 10 etc to 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1.

(for 10 pt sunshine) ... 10, 9, 8, 7, 7, 6, 6, 5, 5, 4, 4, 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, 1, 1.

You may notice that I sweetened the pot for the lower scores in the last two groups, that's to balance out how many people score anything in these situations. On an estimate, I would say we apply the rule which is more commonly known as the "mercy rule" about once every second month to one category or another, and sometimes in those cases, just to some but not all of the scoring entries. It tends to equalize the monthly scores and thus makes it less relevant which months you might happen to miss.

____________

As in 2011, the 2012 contest will have two basic awards:

The Boards.ie Prize is awarded to the winner based on best 10 scores, so while not necessary to enter every month, if you do, your lowest two scores are dropped -- if you enter eleven times, one lowest score is dropped.

The M.T. Cranium Award which you need not fear to be a literal thing, is given to he or she who scores the highest total for 12 months. To prevent potential embarrassment, you have to enter all 12 to qualify.

And a third un-named award is given to whoever has the highest average for at least eight entries during the year, should that be a different person from either of the above.

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January 2012 contest

1. Predict the IMT, an average of five selected stations, which has averaged 5.2 C for the 30-yr period just ended in 2010.

2. Predict the highest daily maximum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

3. Predict the lowest daily minimum at any reporting (met.ie) station.

4. Predict the monthly precip as a percentage of normal (for 11 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

5. Predict the monthly sunshine as a percentage of normal (for 6 reporting stations in met.ie Monthly Summary)

6. Bonus -- Predict the daily maximum temp at Claremorris on Sunday 15th.

TEMPLATE

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN .... PRC ..... SUN ..... CLA-15

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Because of the New Years holiday falling on a Sunday, I have extended the deadline for entries one extra day.

Entries will be accepted without penalty up to the end of Monday 2nd (at 0300h Tues) and then with the usual late penalties on the 3rd and 4th. The absolute cutoff for entries will be 0300h on Thurs 5th.

Good luck and welcome (back) !!

pauldry

5.4 ..... 13.1 ..... -5.4 .... 99 ..... 89 ..... 11.3

Sponge Bob

5.2 .... 12.9 ....-7.7 ....100 .... 99 .... 4.0

Average, lots and lots of average.

WolfeIRE

Thanks MT

4.8c, 12c, -8c, 95%, 105%, 5c

darkman2

3.9.......10.5c.....-13.2c.....50%.......115%.....0.5c

H2UMrsRobinson

Can't quite believe it's nearly 2012 already...let's hope it's not as dramatic as the film but not quite as uneventful as the past few months, weatherwise.

TEMPLATE

IMT ...6.4.. MAX ..12.6... MIN ..-8.9.. PRC ...95%.. SUN ..75%... CLA-15...8.2...

Wild Bill

5.2 ..... 12.5 ..... -5.9 .... 110 ..... 99 ..... 8.7

5.4 ..... 12.8 ..... -7 .... 101 ..... 94 ..... 8.3

NIALL D

4.6 ..... 11.1 ..... -9.2 .... 97 ..... 104 ..... 4.6

Harps

Back for another year, hopefully a better performance than I managed this year!

4.5 ..... 13.1 ..... -7.1 .... 110 ..... 090 ..... 7.4

Joe Public

If posting from Samoa is there another day's grace:)

200motels

5.6 ..... 13.8 ..... -3.7 .... 139 ..... 74 ..... 12.2

okla

IMT 5.4 ..... MAX 12.8 ..... MIN -5.8 .... PRC 91 ..... SUN 105 ..... CLA 8.5

Hammer Archer

Sure I'll give this a go.
4.7 ..... 13.5 ..... -8.4 .... 86 ..... 91 ..... 6.8

fizzycyst

5.1...11.3...-3.9...120...100...7.6

mickger844posts

5.6c ..... 12.8c..... -4.1c .... 112 ..... 88 ..... 10.5c

dacogawa

4.9 ..... 12.5 ..... -6.2 .... 110 ..... 90 ..... 7.1

Thanks for all the hard work M.T. Happy New Year to you & yours!

homolumo

5.2 ..... 12.1 ..... -4.4 .... 110 ..... 98 ..... 9.4

Happy New Year MT

nilhg

6.1 ..... 13.9 ..... -3.9 .... 111 ..... 87 ..... 10.3

John mac

6.1..... 13.5..... -6.6.... 95..... 94..... 9.4

Tae laidir

5.0 ..... 11.7 ..... -7.1 .... 118 ..... 92 ..... 6.8

MT, you deserve a pay rise in 2012!

M.T. Cranium

No kidding, but honestly, the friendship of the Irish weather community is worth more than anything to me ... anyway, here's my LRF-respecting guess for January, let the pattern changes come fast and furiously now ...

2.2 ..... 13.3 ..... -18.0 :eek: ..... 090 ..... 115 ..... 2.5

rameire

5.4 ..... 13.4 ..... -4.3 ..... 98 ..... 95 ..... 8.9

early for once.

Happy New year people.
Hope its a good one.

Rikand

4.0 ..... 13.3 ..... -6.0 .... 99 ..... 110 ..... 8.0

Joe Public

3.9 ..... 12.9 ..... -9.9 ..... 99 ..... 109 ..... 7.9

Happy New Year to everyone except the Mayans.

rameire

-18
i wish

edit, im sure i will have to eat my own words.

jd

4.1 ..... 13.1 ..... -9.1 .... 95 ..... 98 ..... 6.1

Redsunset

0.5...13.0...-17.8...90...120...2.0
:eek: ............ :eek: .................. :eek:

Sticking with Jan prediction in winter thread

SeaFields

3.7..... 13.5..... -10.3 .... 120 ..... 90 ..... 4.0

kindredspirit

Maybe the Mayans will be right after all with Red Sunset at -17.8° and MT at -18° :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: You two have no respect for the plants in my garden!

I'm not a Mayan (or even from Mayo! ) so I'm going for

5.5 ..... 13.3 ..... -4.5 ..... 85 ..... 105 ..... 10

Total guess as usual. I had gambled in December and lost.

To Alcohol

6.2......13.3......-3.5......90........95........8.5

talkabout

5.2 ..... 11.1 ..... -8.4 .... 95 ..... 100 ..... 6.3

eyesquirm

First time entering.
This is the result from the eyesquirm jury.


4.8....12.3....-7.5....100....94....7.3

dasa29

5.3c ..... 12.7c ..... -8.5c .... 125% ..... 100% ..... 8.5c

K_1

4.2 ..... 12.8 ..... -7.5 .... 85 ..... 110 ..... 5.7

Speak Now

6 ..... 13.5 ..... -5.5 .... 80 ..... 110 ..... 10

MiNdGaM3

3.9 ..... 12.1 ..... -11.0 .... 100 ..... 120 ..... 6.0C

M.T. Cranium

Just a reminder, all the usual deadlines are pushed back one day (as posted) so you still have until the storm to enter (0300h Tuesday) ... and after that, two more days (Tues-Wed) at partly to mostly penalties.

Welcome to the new folk (especially "to alcohol" -- do we know you?) ... and good luck in 2012. I hope to post some final scores for 2011 later Monday if the good people at Met-E publish their summary. Won't hold it against them if they don't, it could be a stat holiday (ha ha).

This will also allow us to examine some partial scores in the Winter Forecast Contest.

jambofc

4.8 ..... 11.7 ..... -7.2 .... 75%..... 125% ..... 8.9c

Lumi

5.3 ..... 12.4 ..... -5.1 .... 100 ..... 89 ..... 6.2

traecy1

5.1....13.6....-6.2....85....115....5.8

DOCARCH

3.9 ..... 11.1 ..... -9.2 .... 92 ..... 110 ..... 3.6

waterways

6.5 ..... 12.7 ..... -8 ..... 104 ..... 110 ..... 10

Steopo

4.9 ..... 12.8 ..... -10.3 ..... 92 ..... 103 ..... 6.1

Danno

5.7 ..... 13.8 ..... -5.2 .... 135 ..... 95 ..... 8.9c

cherryghost

Very late, apologies

5.7 ..... 14.1 ..... -5.6 ..... 102 ..... 80 ..... 6.3

M.T. Cranium

Entries will be closed at 0300h, as mentioned, all penalty deadlines are shifted back one day so Enderman is "late-late" (10% penalty for score above 50, min 50).

I just posted a provisional "December and wind gust max" scoring summary in the winter forecast thread. Strasser leads with a perfect 20/20 so far. Joe Public is second in the race for the 20 euros.

Iancar29

WOOPS! VERY VERY LATE SORRY!

2.3 ..... 13.0 ..... -12.0 ..... 085 ..... 115 ..... 2.0

M.T. Cranium

Iancar29, you can enter under the late-late rules but with a five point ceiling on your bonus answer as an added penalty. This is my second attempt to get a table together, first one disappeared into cyber-space.


Table of entries for January 2012
____________________________________

Forecaster ............... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Cla-15
_______________________________________________________________

waterways ............. 6.5 ..... 12.7 ..... -8.0 ..... 104 ..... 110 .... 10.0
H2UMrsRobinson ...... 6.4 ..... 12.6 ..... -8.9 ..... 095 ..... 075 ..... 8.2
To Alchohol ............ 6.2 ..... 13.3 ..... -3.5 ..... 090 ..... 095 ..... 8.5
nilhg ..................... 6.1 ..... 13.9 ..... -3.9 ..... 111 ..... 087 .... 10.3
John mac ............... 6.1 ..... 13.5 ..... -6.6 ..... 095 ..... 094 ..... 9.4
Jerry Seinfeld .......... 6.0 ..... 13.5 ..... -5.5 ..... 080 ..... 110 .... 10.0
Enderman** ........... 5.7 ..... 14.1 ..... -5.6 ..... 102 ..... 080 ..... 6.3
Danno* ................. 5.7 ..... 13.8 ..... -5.2 ..... 135 ..... 095 ..... 8.9
200motels .............. 5.6 ..... 13.8 ..... -3.7 ..... 139 ..... 074 .... 12.2
mickger844posts ..... 5.6 ..... 12.8 ..... -4.1 ..... 112 ..... 088 .... 10.5
kindredspirit ........... 5.5 ..... 13.3 ..... -4.5 ..... 085 ..... 105 .... 10.0
pauldry .................. 5.4 ..... 13.1 ..... -5.4 ..... 099 ..... 089 .... 11.3
hellboy99 .............. 5.4 ..... 12.8 ..... -7.0 ..... 101 ..... 094 ..... 8.3
okla ...................... 5.4 ..... 12.8 ..... -5.8 ..... 091 ..... 105 ..... 8.5
rameire .................. 5.4 ..... 13.4 ..... -4.3 ..... 098 ..... 095 ..... 8.9
Lumi ...................... 5.3 ..... 12.4 ..... -5.1 ..... 100 ..... 089 ..... 6.2
dasa29 .................. 5.3 ..... 12.7 ..... -8.5 ..... 125 ..... 100 ..... 8.5
homolumo .............. 5.2 ..... 12.1 ..... -4.4 ..... 110 ..... 098 ..... 9.4
talkabout ............... 5.2 ..... 11.1 ..... -8.4 ..... 095 ..... 100 ..... 6.3
Sponge Bob ............ 5.2 ..... 12.9 ..... -7.7 ..... 100 ..... 099 ..... 4.0
Wild Bill .................. 5.2 ..... 12.5 ..... -5.9 ..... 110 ..... 099 ..... 8.7

Con Sensus ............ 5.2 ..... 13.0 ..... -7.2 ..... 099 ..... 100 ..... 7.6

fizzycyst ................ 5.1 ..... 11.3 ..... -3.9 ..... 120 ..... 100 ..... 7.6
traecy1 ................. 5.1 ..... 13.6 ..... -6.2 ..... 085 ..... 115 ..... 5.8
Tae laidir ............... 5.0 ..... 11.7 ..... -7.1 ..... 118 ..... 092 ..... 6.8
dacogawa .............. 4.9 ..... 12.5 ..... -6.2 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 7.1
Steopo* ................ 4.9 ..... 12.8 .... -10.3 ..... 092 ..... 103 ..... 6.1
jambofc ................. 4.8 ..... 11.7 ..... -7.2 ..... 075 ..... 125 ..... 8.9
eyesquirm .............. 4.8 ..... 12.3 ..... -7.5 ..... 100 ..... 094 ..... 7.3
WolfeIRE ................ 4.8 ..... 12.0 ..... -8.0 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 5.0
Hammer Archer ....... 4.7 ..... 13.5 ..... -8.4 ..... 086 ..... 091 ..... 6.8
NIALL D ................. 4.6 ..... 11.1 ..... -9.2 ..... 097 ..... 104 ..... 4.6
Harps .................... 4.5 ..... 13.1 ..... -7.1 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 7.4
K_1 ....................... 4.2 ..... 12.8 ..... -7.5 ..... 085 ..... 110 ..... 5.7
jd ......................... 4.1 ..... 13.1 ..... -9.1 ..... 095 ..... 098 ..... 6.1
Rickylovesuall ......... 4.0 ..... 13.3 ..... -6.0 ..... 099 ..... 110 ..... 8.0
DOCARCH ............... 3.9 ..... 11.1 ..... -9.2 ..... 092 ..... 110 ..... 3.6
MiNdGaM3 .............. 3.9 ..... 12.1 .... -11.0 ..... 100 ..... 120 ..... 6.0
darkman2 ............... 3.9 ..... 10.5 .... -13.2 .... 050 ..... 115 ..... 0.5
Joe Public .............. 3.9 ..... 12.9 ..... -9.9 ..... 099 ..... 109 ..... 7.9
SeaFields ............... 3.7..... 13.5 .... -10.3 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... 4.0
snowstreams** ...... 3.5 ..... 12.6 ..... -10.4 ..... 095 ..... 110 ..... 6.5***
Iancar29** ............ 2.3 ..... 13.0 .... -12.0 ..... 085 ..... 115 ..... 2.0***
M.T. Cranium .......... 2.2 ..... 13.3 .... -18.0 ..... 090 ..... 115 ..... 2.5
redsunset ............. 0.5 ..... 13.0 .... -17.8 ..... 090 ..... 120 ..... 2.0
____________________________________________________

* late penalty (10% off scores over 60, min 60)
** late-late penalty (10% off scores over 50, min 50)
*** max score available 5/10

Anyone who played regularly in 2011 and missed the deadline can enter before 0300 under same conditions as Iancar29, after which no exceptions.

snowstreams

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

Anyone who played regularly in 2011 and missed the deadline can enter before 0300 under same conditions as Iancar29, after which no exceptions.

I was in the competition last year but missed a good few months. So I was hoping not to miss January, I dont know how I missed it.
Sorry I'll take an extreme penalty if you still allow?

3.5 ..... 12.6 ..... -10.4 ..... 095 ..... 110 ..... 6.5

M.T. Cranium

Summary for first week (1-7 Jan) ...

IMT 6.8 C

max 13.1 C

min ??

prc 133% of normal rainfall

sun 75% of normal (est)