Lexus Chase - Leopardstown (28/12/11)

Nulty

Awesome! I'm definitely going. I've seen Kauto Star at Down Royal and I'll see Denman at Leopardstown.

Denman 11/4
Quito 11/4
Joncol 6/1
Rubi L 8/1
Kempes 10/1
Magnaminity 14/1
Tranquil Sea 16/1
Bostons Angels 20/1
China Rock 20/1
Cooldine 20/1
33/1 bar

I have to admit, right now Denman looks a big price! 6/4 would be more what I'd have him as. Quito had his first run of the season last time at Down Royal and but looked laboured and slow. One thing we know about Denman is he is not slow. I have every faith in this horse beating anything bar KS and Long Run. Joncol loves the mud but so do many of these. His beating of Cooldine is nothing special. Cooldine has won nothing for 2 years, although his best efforts have come in this race. Kempes is coming back as Mullins best hope having won it last year. That race was less than brilliant and certainly didn't have the depth of the races Denman has performed so well in over the last how many years.

Rubi Light is the interesting one but could you really back him against the tank!? Leopardstown drains well but it could still be fairly heavy come the 28th. Will he be good enough? Magnaminity is a little less interesting than Rubi Light. The common knowledge of the second season novices record puts any of their engagements in perspective. Bostons Angel and Wayward Prince have had a poor time of it so far but is that just down to bad luck? Bostons Angel is actually more interesting if you can forgive him his starts this season. He beat Magnanimity on heavy and Quito on heavy last season before taking the RSA. 20/1 will look big come the day.

I could go on but I'll leave it for now with Denman, Rubi Light, Magnanimity and Bostons Angel on my mind. Should be an excellent race if they all turn up!

Huntey

Rubi Light will hack up in the Durkan so I don't think he will run.

Denman does look a decent price, one thing for sure is that he will canter all over that slow coach Quito.

UrbanSea

Nulty I don't agree with you saying that Denman isn't slow. I like Quito for this.

shy-tall-knight

i'm all over denman in this, probably he last realistic chance of winning a grade 1 of such prestige so you can be sure Nicholls will have him as wound up as he had Kauto at Haydock. and btw nulty Pandorama won this last year, not Kempes. Kempes won the Hennessey.

UrbanSea

Last year's race,like many staying chases in Ireland,was brutal.

I fancied Pandorama,not through any great form,just by eliminating the other runners it was that bad

Nulty

So he did STK. They're basically the same race in different months though :P. Pandoramas win seems like a long time ago!

Denman is clearly not slow Urban.

UrbanSea

We'll agree to disagree.

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

We'll agree to disagree.

I would never agree to that! :pac:

Slow compared to what? Frankel? Fame and Glory? Hurricane Fly? Big Bucks? Quito de la Roque?

I can understand you might think he's not very fast but to say he's slow is unacceptable.

UrbanSea

I think he now needs every yard of three miles at the minimum. I mean in comparison to other staying chasers.
I think Kauto would still be able to win good races over two and a half put it that way. Denman would be slammed in a King George,but could reverse form at Cheltenham with any horse.

Nulty

UrbanSea wrote: »

I think he now needs every yard of three miles at the minimum. I mean in comparison to other staying chasers.
I think Kauto would still be able to win good races over two and a half put it that way. Denman would be slammed in a King George,but could reverse form at Cheltenham with any horse.

Denman can't go right handed so KG is out of the question. Ground is not going to be quick at Leopardstown and its a track he's won at.

UrbanSea

It was more a flat track I was using as an example.

I understand that,but still don't think he wouldn't be classified as slow.

RichieLawlor

Lol at saying Denman is slow, he has an unreal cruising speed for a 3 mile Chaser

Pj!

Denman has been retired.

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Lol at saying Denman is slow, he has an unreal cruising speed for a 3 mile Chaser

Worst news of all times lads, Denman retired after picking up an injury :-(

One in a million, we will never see one like the tank again :-(

Agreed Richie, more like a rocket over 3 miles.

artanevilla

Huntey wrote: »

Rubi Light will hack up in the Durkan so I don't think he will run.

Denman does look a decent price, one thing for sure is that he will canter all over that slow coach Quito.

The Durkan is just the run out for the Lexus, Rubi will run if he's well.

Huntey

artanevilla wrote: »

The Durkan is just the run out for the Lexus, Rubi will run if he's well.

Well the trainer has confirmed that after today's race yes.

Looks a silly decision in my mind, why run him so soon over probably very testing ground again?

Could be very detrimental to a horse who is still only six.

NaiveMelodies

I've been a big fan of Rubi Light and Quito De La Roque for a while now, and I'm all at sea as to who I'd go for in the Lexus.

I think Rubi Light has so much improvement to come, his run at cheltenham suggests that good ground doesnt seem to be an issue. If Hennessy can finetune his jumping I think he could be top class and possibly win over there in March, A great chance in the Ryanair anyway.. Would a good performance in the Lexus see them have a crack at the Gold cup or will they wait another year perhaps?

Quito's the class act at the moment, but 6/1 looks a decent price for Rubi.

Bostons Angel could run a big one too, wasn't great few weeks ago but has the class and 14/1 is big.


What I find hilarious is Joncols price, best price 5/1. The gamble on Joncol in the minutes prior to the race today would usually worry me, but seeing it was Nolan's yard I knew their bullish confidence wasn't much to worry about. Exact same thing with Big Zeb's win in Navan when they backed Noble Prince big style.
He will not get near Rubi Light again, bar accident, and certainly won't be winning on the 28th.

artanevilla

Huntey wrote: »

Well the trainer has confirmed that after today's race yes.

Looks a silly decision in my mind, why run him so soon over probably very testing ground again?

Could be very detrimental to a horse who is still only six.

He was due to run in Down Royal over 3 and then Haydock over 3 if he didn't make Down Royal, he was alway going for the Lexus after either of those, a virus ruled him out for both. He'll run in that ground all day, he wasn't fit today and he'll come on a ton for it.

Huntey

Quito looks the most likely winner of the Lexus as he is best suited by testing ground over 3 miles imo. He has won on a sound surface before but unless he gets testing ground in March he would be brutally outpaced in the Gold Cup.

Bostons Angel is a slowcoach and the form of the RSA looks pretty abysmal at this stage.

I hope Rubi Light goes for the Ryanair, trip is ideal and even if the ground goes against him his jumping will give him a decent chance alone.

artanevilla

Huntey wrote: »

Quito looks the most likely winner of the Lexus as he is best suited by testing ground over 3 miles imo. He has won on a sound surface before but unless he gets testing ground in March he would be brutally outpaced in the Gold Cup.

Bostons Angel is a slowcoach and the form of the RSA looks pretty abysmal at this stage.

I hope Rubi Light goes for the Ryanair, trip is ideal and even if the ground goes against him his jumping will give him a decent chance alone.

The hope is Rubi'll make the 3 miles, there's no reason he shouldn't. If not he'll probably go for the Ryanair again, but the ground shouldn't be an issue either way.

Huntey

artanevilla wrote: »

He was due to run in Down Royal over 3 and then Haydock over 3 if he didn't make Down Royal, he was alway going for the Lexus after either of those, a virus ruled him out for both. He'll run in that ground all day, he wasn't fit today and he'll come on a ton for it.

Well that is further enhancing my concern of running him so soon again, it wasn't the plan to run him about two weeks before the Lexus it seems.

I wouldn't be a fan of running him again on testing ground so soon over 3 miles, he is only 6 and there is no rush to turn him out again so soon imo.

Huntey

artanevilla wrote: »

The hope is Rubi'll make the 3 miles, there's no reason he shouldn't. If not he'll probably go for the Ryanair again, but the ground shouldn't be an issue either way.

I have no doubt he would get 3 miles but I think 2 and a half would be ideal as he is a speedy enough type.

Have you any involvement with the horse or something?

klairondavis

Providing that Sunday didn't take the edge off Rubi Light, I think he'll take all the beating in the Lexus. No reason he shouldn't appreciate the step up in trip as much as Joncol. Seems ridiculous to say this about a 3 mile slog around Leopardstown but I don't think Quito De La Roque will be quick enough. Got going far too late last year in the 3 mile novice over c&d and only kept on at the one pace at Down Royal when Sizing Europe and The Nightingale hit the wall. It's possible that they'll ride Rubi Light with a bit more restraint given the concerns about the trip but he could still take QDLR off his feet like he was up the North. Unlike, Sizing Europe and The Nightingale though, I'd expect Rubi Light will keep going.

baazzaa

The big question is, is Rubi Light conditioned to win this over 3 mile , most winners of this have run over 3 miles.

AldilaMan

baazzaa wrote: »

The big question is, is Rubi Light conditioned to win this over 3 mile , most winners of this have run over 3 miles.

Rubi Light will stay all day and the Gold Cup is the target (though I don't think he's quite up to winning it. In the John Durkin he thrashed Joncol who just plodded on when the race was already won so I don't see how they are so close in the betting. Joncol has finished 3rd for the last 2 years and I can't see him improving to win it this time.

My Christmas bet will be €50 on Rubi Light for the Lexus 7/2 doubled with Long Run to win the King George and Gold Cup 11/2 to net €1462. I'll be in Cheltenham for the Gold Cup so that could be a nice sweat !!

Flashdean

I cant seem to get away from Noland tomorrow im trying to find a valid excuse not to back him but at 8's it appeals more than most!

UrbanSea

Just had a bet on Rubi Light at 5/2. He's progressing at a rate of knots and should run a big race

Juwwi

UrbanSea wrote: »

Just had a bet on Rubi Light at 5/2. He's progressing at a rate of knots and should run a big race

I think I'll do the same withthe ground drying out I think he'll be too quick
for the others.
5/2 is a fair price l can see him going off favourite.

UrbanSea

Have one or two other bets for tomorrow. Will probably back Rubi Light some more if they come good

mr.jingle

Pouring down with rain so ground could well cut up for Quito De La Roque tomorrow if it keeps up. I'm only 10mins from the track and it is coming down heavy enough to make a difference for tomorrow's racing. I know Leopardstown drains well but just a word of warning for you's if you's are backing early tomorrow as the ground could well cut up after the first couple of races if this rain keeps up

UrbanSea

I'll hold fire on backing him more

UrbanSea

No change in the going description

NaiveMelodies

All dry up here now not much signs of rain, bloody hope Rubi Light can do it, , Quito will more than likely be ridden along a few fences out, Rubi's going to have to jump impeccably and keep up the momentum as Quito will fly home regardless.

UrbanSea

Lads what do ye make of Mourad and Voler la Vadette? Tempted to dive in on Voler

RichieLawlor

UrbanSea wrote: »

Lads what do ye make of Mourad and Voler la Vadette? Tempted to dive in on Voler

Mourad. He's a big price today over the trip

UrbanSea

Hmmm. Might leave it.

NaiveMelodies

I think Voler might shade it but no bet race for me.

Huntey

UrbanSea wrote: »

Lads what do ye make of Mourad and Voler la Vadette? Tempted to dive in on Voler

Mourad will be one of my bigger bets of the year.

I don't think the mare really sees out a truly run three miles and had everything in her favour last time. Mourad never runs well first time out and the drying ground will favour him far more than Voler La Vedette.

TheMilkyPirate

Mourad and rubi light double for me.

knockostia

baraca wrote: »

Mourad and rubi light double for me.

I was thinking the same myself but am put off by Gary o brien tipping voler la vedette I ve never seen him tip a loser at those odds

UrbanSea

Didn't dive in but had backed Alle Garde to be placed so stuck 40 on Voler.

UrbanSea

What's up with BF,25 million available to back Voler at 29??

NaiveMelodies

Noticed that urban, had voler in a small treble and had betfair up, while watching on rte, couldnt understand, thought the rte stream was way behind and voler had made a mistake or something...

They are just after saying on RTE that it had to be a glitch on the system.

UrbanSea

Good thing I backed Voler,covered my stake on Rubi

Harry Angstrom

How rubbish are our Irish 3-mile chasers if a horse like Synchronised can come over and hammer them?

Huntey

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

How rubbish are our Irish 3-mile chasers if a horse like Synchronised can come over and hammer them?

Shocking, probably wasn't anything better than a low 160 in that field today.

convert

Anyone want to enlighten me on exactly how the race played out? Stuck in work where they have all the racing sites blocked! :mad:

Nulty

convert wrote: »

Anyone want to enlighten me on exactly how the race played out? Stuck in work where they have all the racing sites blocked! :mad:

Skysports.com/racing have inrunning comments on their cards

convert

Nulty wrote: »

Skysports.com/racing have inrunning comments on their cards

Exxxxxxxcellent!

Nulty

I was in your position before

Skysports.com isn't blocked as a gambling site so it passes the filters

NaiveMelodies

I haven't given up on Rubi Light yet. His jumping is excellent, didnt stay as well as Russell and Lynch said he would.
But you have to remember his great Ryanair run last year. Since then his jumping has improved markedly.
Can't be touted as the next Irish hope in the Gold Cup but I can see him winning a grade 1 over 2m4f.
Also racing on heavy ground 2 and half weeks ago mightnt have been the greatest prep for a horse who had been suffering with a virus.