NFL Week 12

Paully D

Really, really can't wait for this weeks action, which kicks-off tomorrow with 3 games live on Sky Sports.

Thursday 24th/25th November, all on Sky Sports 3:

Packers @ Lions (17:30)

Dolphins @ Cowboys (21:15)

49ers @ Ravens (01:20)

Sunday 27th November:

6pm games:

Cardinals @ Rams

Bills @ Jets

Panthers @ Colts

Browns @ Bengals

Texans @ Jaguars

Vikings @ Falcons

Bucs @ Titans

9pm games:

Bears @ Raiders

Redskins @ Seahawks

Broncos @ Chargers

Patriots @ Eagles

01:30 game:

Steelers @ Chiefs

Monday 28th November:

Giants @ Saints

So there you have it. Looks like a cracking weeks action.

I like the Packers, Cowboys and Ravens (just) in the Thanksgiving games. That treble is available at 11/5 on Paddy Power now and I'll be having some of that.

Another bet I really like is the Giants on the points spread of +7 points against the Saints on Monday Night Football, bet is available at 10/11.

Could the Colts actually win a game this weekend? I feel they've got a very good chance.

Enjoy :cool:

UnitedIrishman

How are the Texans only -3.5 against the Jaguars?

I know they lost Schaub for the season but listening to Leinart himself on the Rich Eisen podcast, he seems well up for it and acknowledged that things didn't work out and Arizona for different reasons but preferred staying with a playbook he knew back to front rather than chance being a possible starter with Seattle.

Meanwhile Gabbert can't seem to get anything going.

Others I like - Oakland -4, Cowboys -7, oh and of course you have to go with Broncos +6.

davyjose

Paully D wrote: »

Could the Colts actually win a game this weekend? I feel they've got a very good chance.

It's looking like our last chance. Who knows, they might be up for it after the bye. Manning clearly made this team look better than they were, but no way are these guys a 0-16 team.

As for the Luck sweepstakes, etc etc. I think we could fall as far as third in the draft and pick up a future franchise QB (Rams won't sign a QB, leaving Barkely). And even if we win half our remaining games, we'll still probably finish with first.

I haven't spoken about the Colts much this season (because what's the fcuking point?), but regardless of Manning's future (and IMO he'll be comeback player of the year 2012) this is absolutely, slam-dunk the year to pick up his replacement. If we don't, our future is more seasons like this one.

davyjose

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

How are the Texans only -3.5 against the Jaguars?

Division game + Jags at home + Leinart is basically sh1t = How.

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

I know they lost Schaub for the season but listening to Leinart himself on the Rich Eisen podcast, he seems well up for it and acknowledged that things didn't work out and Arizona for different reasons but preferred staying with a playbook he knew back to front rather than chance being a possible starter with Seattle.

Meanwhile Gabbert can't seem to get anything going.

I'll believe it when I see it. Talk is cheap.

UnitedIrishman

davyjose wrote: »

Division game + Jags at home + Leinart is basically sh1t = How.

I'll believe it when I see it. Talk is cheap.

Granted its a divisional game, but they'll be giving the ball to Foster and Tate a lot of the time.

And they're playing a Jags team that lost to Cleveland last week, could only put 10 points on the board in doing so; put 12 points on the board against the Rams the week before; how are they going to get scores on the best ranked defence in the league? You have to go back to week 5 to when they scored over 15 points in a game - which they've only done twice this year (Weeks 1 and 5).

Barring a strange strange tie like the Ravens one, Texans should win this handily.

Peyton Manning

Two very tough road games coming up for the Packers, I have a feeling they could lose one of them.

Also, week 12? How did that happen so fast

tallaghtoutlaws

Bills season well and truly fooked now. If they weren't already on a downhill slop of disaster they have hit it now. Fred Jackson done for the season.

matthew8

No way the Panthers will lose this weekend. Colts offense is in awful form, best they could muster would be 20 points, good luck containing Cam Newton to 20 points with their defense. If I ever bet I would put a huge bet on the Panthers to beat the spread this week. The best chance for the Colts to win is against the Ravens, though they could beat the Jaguars.

eagle eye

I love Thanksgiving and have always treated it as it should be treated since I lived there. I will have turkey tomorrow and a special treat this year as a friend of mine has promised me a pumpkin pie when he comes to visit.

Happy Thanksgiving to one and all, enjoy the football.

Syferus

Painter's not going to gouge the Panthers like Stafford and he's struggled alot lately, even relatively speaking. Newton should be able to pass all over the Colts so I really don't see them winning this week. Their final game against the Jags is their best hope for a win, not going up against the best rookie QB in NFL history.

padraig_f

UnitedIrishman wrote: »

How are the Texans only -3.5 against the Jaguars?

It's not that crazy. A rough way to calculate a projected score is to look at the average points scored and allowed for both teams, and take the mid-point.

e.g. Texans score an average 27 points a game and Jags concede an average of 18 points a game (5th in the league). To estimate what the Texans will score, take the mid-point of those two numbers: 22.5 points.

Jags score 12 points a game and Texans concede 16, so Jags will score 14 on average.

This makes the score 22.5 to 14 on a neutral field, which is a spread of Texans -8.5. Take off 3 points for the Jags home advantage and you get Texans -5.5.

I'm not sure what Matt Schaub is worth over Leinart but it's definitely a couple of points, which gets you to -3.5.


Speaking of injured QBs, the Bears may be good value. Before the Cutler injury, the line was Bears -1.5. Today they are +4. So that line move is saying that Cutler is worth 5.5 points over Hanie. I think this may be an over-reaction. He was certainly valuable against the Chargers who defended the run well (they restricted the Bears to 92 yards/2.9 yards-per-carry [1]), and Cutler had to play well for the Bears to win that game.

But the Raiders have a poor run defense, 25th in the league defending the run. So even if Cutler played, the Bears were likely to run a lot more against them. Obviously Hanie will be a big step down from Cutler, but for a run-oriented team against a weak run-defense, 5.5 points looks to be too much.

[1] bad news for the Broncos incidentally if they keep this up.

Peyton Manning

What are the games on Sky this Sunday?

cruiserweight

Cam Newton wrote: »

What are the games on Sky this Sunday?

Houston @ Jacksonville and Chicago @ Oakland
http://www.skysports.com/story/0,19528,12949,00.html

SantryRed

They've gotta change Chicago @ Oakland to either Broncos and San Diego or Eagles and the Patriots.

davyjose

eagle eye wrote: »

I love Thanksgiving and have always treated it as it should be treated since I lived there. I will have turkey tomorrow and a special treat this year as a friend of mine has promised me a pumpkin pie when he comes to visit.

Happy Thanksgiving to one and all, enjoy the football.

Don't mean to get all political, like. But it's the most cynical holiday of all. FWIW, they should have the Redskins play. :pac:

clare ny

what up with philip rivers this season 17 picks already so broncos defence to win this one ... thanks giving day thinking packers have too much , cowboys , and leaning to the 49ers to get a result in baltimore .... think the patriots will end the eagles season early... jets to return to winning ways against the bills and drew brees and co have a field day against that suspect giant defense .....
happy thanksgiving

FreeOSCAR

My predictions for this evenings games are.

The Packers to thump Detroit (This Lions team are very lucky to be 7-3 IMO and will probably limp into the playoffs). The Vikings, Panthers and Cowboys threw away big leads against them but no way the Packers will.

Miami to lose by a TD or 2, The Cowboys have been brilliant the last few games at home and I see this continuing.

Really hard to call the 49ers/Ravens game. Can't wait for it, I'll go with the Ravens in a close one.

11 or so hours of Football Today. YES!!!

Peyton Manning

What a shít line up on Sky this Sunday

leggit

Packers and Cowboys, 10/11, Will Hill, BANKER!

Themonkey

the 3 favs tonight are certs baltimore will hammer san fran

Paully D

leggit wrote: »

Packers and Cowboys, 10/11, Will Hill, BANKER!

Throw in the Ravens and you have yourself an 11/5 treble on Paddy Power.

Peyton Manning

Nnamdi Asomugha carted off the field with a knee injury at Eagles practice. Big break for the Pats if he's out Sunday.

Paully D

Packers at -4 on the handicap now at 10/11. Very decent for those looking at a big bet tonight.

cooker3

Oooh have a stream from sky. It's the first time I've seen skys coverage of nfl in forever.

cooker3

Is Neil Reynolds the permanent co-host now?

UnitedIrishman

I'd love it the boys in studio were just fed drink for the 12 hours of football for Thanksgiving. Would make for some brilliant viewing.

eagle eye

I'm on the over very, very big in this one. Cannot see this one being below 65 points and the o/u is 55.5.

I have a feeling in my bones that there could be a shock result here tonight. The Lions look like they are getting over their bad patch and Green Bay didn't look just great last week against Tampa.

Peyton Manning

Neil Reynolds is actually a very good studio personality IMO. I like him.

Can also smell a Lions upset here. Been ages since they won on thanksgiving. Today is the day

UnitedIrishman

eagle eye wrote: »

I'm on the over very, very big in this one. Cannot see this one being below 65 points and the o/u is 55.5.

I have a feeling in my bones that there could be a shock result here tonight. The Lions look like they are getting over their bad patch and Green Bay didn't look just great last week against Tampa.

Agree with both those summaries.

If Smith has a big game for the Lions, the Packers are going to suffer defensively.

Plus your looking at two massive offences and a poor defence (Packers).

Paully D

Cam Newton wrote: »

Neil Reynolds is actually a very good studio personality IMO. I like him.

I really like him too. He's also very good at responding to people on Twitter.

vinny chase

I think the Lions look pretty sharp here starting out.

Kevin Smith has rediscovered his college form. Some nice completions from Stafford; particularly one to Scheffler.

Set for an upset!

eagle eye

Kevin Smith is looking so good, remember before the injury and always thought he was going to be a star. It will be a great story if he continues like he is now for the rest of his career.

vinny chase

eagle eye wrote: »

Kevin Smith is looking so good, remember before the injury and always thought he was going to be a star. It will be a great story if he continues like he is now for the rest of his career.

Yeah, he's looking very sharp. He's a good receiver out of the backfield, and the Pack are devoting so many guys in coverage that Smith is getting free a few times with just someone like AJ Hawk attempting to cover him. If not for a couple of stupid penalties there the Lions were rolling.

UnitedIrishman

Pass rush is much better thus far from the Packers. A good few penalties already given up by the Lions O-Line.

cooker3

Good start for packers. I think Stafford will throw a few ints. Woodson to equals his cousins record perhaps!

clare ny

do you know or use any chat box for nfl games. like the on-going analyasis from us pro couch patatoes

Peyton Manning

Cecil makes me lol way too many times, that one was right up there with the infamous alligator incident

eagle eye

Oh my, scoreless first quarter. How does this happen with two high powered offenses like this?:(

vinny chase

Huge run from Stafford.

vinny chase

Smith hurt now; that would change things significantly.

Delmas has already limped off for them on the other side of the ball.

UnitedIrishman

Far too easy for the Lions on this drive. Smith could be gone though which would be a huge blow.

El Horseboxo

That looked like a hamstring. If it is he's done.

cooker3

Lovely stuff Clay.

UnitedIrishman

He almost had a one handed catch there for the pick.

cooker3

Lions have to cut down on penalties, suicidal amount already.

UnitedIrishman

That's a bad call to be fair, Packers receiver stumbled. We'll take it though!

clare ny

penalties killing the lions

vinny chase

Penalties from both sides are just killing this game so far.

cooker3

Big penalty.

cooker3

Grant getting much more involved than he has been this season.

vinny chase

Stafford's first pick; Matthews takes away the tipped ball.

Might finally get something going now.