Cragg for Fukuoka

myflipflops

Cragg has been confirmed for the Fukuoka Marathon on December 4th.

The field looks to have been assembled with the idea of giving a home athlete a great shot at winning with no super fast Africans in there (although 13.05/26.57 Kenyan on his debut will probably run 2.03!).

The field could be a double edged sword for Cragg. While there should be no suicide pace for him to follow like he did in Boston, he may well decide he is capable of winning the race and go off with the leaders increasing the chance of a blow up or DNF.

I'd like to see him go out and run the even split 2.10 that he certainly seems capable of. This gets a solid marathon under his belt and ticks off the Olympic A standard. Maybe he can attack the NR if the race is going well at 18 miles.

http://japanrunningnews.blogspot.com/2011/11/kawauchi-baranovskyy-headline-olympic.html

theboyblunder

it gives me no pleasure to say it, and I hope im wrong - but the weight of history is against him finishing.

shels4ever

theboyblunder wrote: »

it gives me no pleasure to say it, and I hope im wrong - but the weight of history is against him finishing.

He has finished far more races than he dnf's i'd say his dnf history is very low % wise. Also seems to be a different runner to the cragg of 2-3 years ago and alot maybe due to his oh.

theboyblunder

its the big occassions I worry about.

Sprocket77

National record for half marathon and 5,000m this year, what's he got to do to prove himself?

Dodge

theboyblunder wrote: »

its the big occassions I worry about.

Is this a big occassion?

AEDIC

Sprocket77 wrote: »

National record for half marathon and 5,000m this year, what's he got to do to prove himself?

Fulfill his potential??

Personally I was hopeful at the start of the year that we would see some consistent performances... seen some green shoots...but not quite there yet.

theboyblunder

Sprocket77 wrote: »

National record for half marathon and 5,000m this year, what's he got to do to prove himself?

Dont worry, im not a hater Hes a great runner, bags of talent etc. I didnt say he had to prove himself, I said that the weight of history is against him finishing. i dont have much time, ripped this from wiki

2006 European Championships Gothenburg, Sweden — 5000 m DNF 2008 Olympic Games Beijing, China — 5000 m DNF 2010 European Athletics Championships Barcelona, Spain — 5000 m DNF


add the boston dnf and I think my concern is reasonable. Its no big deal, I had a dnf there recently myself ;-), but you would have to say that this lad has a bit more of a habit of it that most big-name irish athletes.

Dodge wrote: »

Is this a big occassion?

2nd marathon, attempt to qulaify for the olympic games, in a marathon crazy country. Yip, id say it is.

shels4ever

Sprocket77 wrote: »

National record for half marathon and 5,000m this year, what's he got to do to prove himself?

maybe beat bekele ooops he's done that before

ThePiedPiper

Sprocket77 wrote: »

National record for half marathon and 5,000m this year, what's he got to do to prove himself?

He's completely unproven at the marathon. Yes, he ran a fantastic half marathon earlier in the year so he's got undoubted potential. But so far, his marathon efforts have been pretty poor. The hope would be that he would bank an Olympic qualifying time and if he wants to do a National record, do it sometime in the future.

shels4ever

theboyblunder wrote: »

Dont worry, im not a hater Hes a great runner, bags of talent etc. I didnt say he had to prove himself, I said that the weight of history is against him finishing. i dont have much time, ripped this from wiki

2006 European Championships Gothenburg, Sweden — 5000 m DNF 2008 Olympic Games Beijing, China — 5000 m DNF 2010 European Athletics Championships Barcelona, Spain — 5000 m DNF


add the boston dnf and I think my concern is reasonable. Its no big deal, I had a dnf there recently myself ;-), but you would have to say that this lad has a bit more of a habit of it that most big-name athletes - at least in my mind.



2nd marathon, attempt to qulaify for the olympic games, in a marathon crazy country. Yip, id say it is.

I would nearly agree, I think he had a bad couple of years, One of thoese was a torn achilies so we can hardly expect him to finish( he was leading at the time).
I think alot of his bad days were because he expected to medal and anything less wasnt good enough. I had given up on him after Barca but he hasn't done much wrong since apart from his first marathon.

shels4ever

RunForestRun wrote: »

He's completely unproven at the marathon. Yes, he ran a fantastic half marathon earlier in the year so he's got undoubted potential. But so far, his marathon efforts have been pretty poor. The hope would be that he would bank an Olympic qualifying time and if he wants to do a National record, do it sometime in the future.

I don't think he's the type of runner that will run 4-5 mins slower than he thisn he can run in the marathon, think we cragg we will get all or nothing. But if he clicks over the marathon he coudl go very fast.

nodgie86

Can't understand the criticism of Cragg again and again on this messageboard. You say he doesn't perform on the big occassion and use the 08 olympic final as an example but you didn't state the performance it took to actually make the final with people like Farah and Mottram not making it!
I think Cragg has had a very solid career and is very passionate and emotional when he runs maybe too emotive but the guy always gives 100 per cent and puts himself out there for the win, if he sat back and ran for an ordinary time he'd be criticized so i say kudos for actually giving it his best shot!

Sprocket77

AEDIC wrote: »

Fulfill his potential??

I'd argue that, that's exactly what he has been doing this year. Realistically an Irish distance runner isn't going to win any global medals, Europeans maybe. So what's left for him to do, qualify for world finals and break national records, he's doing both.

I hope he goes out and goes for it, forget the 2:15 time, if he really wants to run the marathon at the Olympics he'll get another chance at the time in the Spring. I'd prefer to see him have a real go at the record.

thirstywork2

Cragg will break 2.10 for sure.
In relation to beating bekele though,bekele misjudged the laps and his missus had died not too long before that.Also cragg is a specialist at indoors,many ncaa titles and european winner over 3k.

I can see where people knock him but he has performed well this year and maybe we shouldn't be so negative.as you can see below 2006-2010 in major champs was a disaster.

Year Competition Venue Position Event Notes
2003 European Cross Country Championships Edinburgh, Scotland 8th 9830 m 29:13
2004 World Cross Country Championships Brussels, Belgium 16th Short race
2004 Olympic Games Athens, Greece 12th 5000 m
2005 European Indoor Championship Madrid, Spain 1st 3000 m 7:46.32
2006 World Indoor Championships Moscow, Russia 4th 3000 m 7:46.43
2006 European Championships Gothenburg, Sweden — 5000 m DNF
2008 Olympic Games Beijing, China — 5000 m DNF
2010 European Athletics Championships Barcelona, Spain — 5000 m DNF

theboyblunder

nodgie86 wrote: »

Can't understand the criticism of Cragg again and again on this messageboard. You say he doesn't perform on the big occassion and use the 08 olympic final as an example but you didn't state the performance it took to actually make the final with people like Farah and Mottram not making it!
I think Cragg has had a very solid career and is very passionate and emotional when he runs maybe too emotive but the guy always gives 100 per cent and puts himself out there for the win, if he sat back and ran for an ordinary time he'd be criticized so i say kudos for actually giving it his best shot!

Pointing out that he dnf'd in the last three major finals and in his first marathon, and saying that he might do this again (unfortunately, I really hope the guy does well), is not criticism. Its not even close to criticism really.

Woddle

I am in no doubt that Cragg is going to rock it, I said it before the great south run and I'm saying it again, he is going to rock it

macinalli

theboyblunder wrote: »

Pointing out that he dnf'd in the last three major finals and in his first marathon, and saying that he might do this again (unfortunately, I really hope the guy does well), is not criticism. Its not even close to criticism really.

Hmmmm, are there any other athletes out there that you predict DNFs for?

AEDIC

Sprocket77 wrote: »

I'd argue that, that's exactly what he has been doing this year. Realistically an Irish distance runner isn't going to win any global medals, Europeans maybe. So what's left for him to do, qualify for world finals and break national records, he's doing both.

I hope he goes out and goes for it, forget the 2:15 time, if he really wants to run the marathon at the Olympics he'll get another chance at the time in the Spring. I'd prefer to see him have a real go at the record.

Depends how highly you view his potential I suppose :rolleyes:

Also... just to clarify.. I am hoping he does fulfill his potential...

myflipflops

Woddle wrote: »

I am in no doubt that Cragg is going to rock it, I said it before the great south run and I'm saying it again, he is going to rock it

I wouldn't say i have no doubts but I think he will nail it too.

I haven't heard him talk this confidently in years. The guys confidence and mentality have been a major factor in his performances over the years and he seems to be brimming at the moment.

I reckon about a 7/4 shot for a NR.

Dan man

myflipflops wrote: »

I wouldn't say i have no doubts but I think he will nail it too.

I haven't heard him talk this confidently in years. The guys confidence and mentality have been a major factor in his performances over the years and he seems to be brimming at the moment.

I reckon about a 7/4 shot for a NR.

I agree, there seems to be much more about Cragg this season, much more confident yet more laid-back. His interviews talked about how he had to re-discover himself on the track and he certainly showed a new lease of life this year. He put no pressure on himself for his track season, as he had been focussing on marathon training, but when that didn't go to plan, he turned to the track with no expectations/pressure and put in some very very good performances. Hopefully he will continue in this mindset and he has talked about his love for the marathon, so hopefully he will nail it. A national record would be so good to see, really am looking forward to this event.

Gringo78

I think a runner learns more from a failed marathon attempt than a good one - Cragg learned a fair bit at Boston and obviously had a shoe malfunction which ultimately scuppered him - blisters from mile 1 is serious and I'm not sure what happened but he obviously tried some flats that he had maybe not even run much in before. However, I was impressed that he went out at the pace he did - you have to remember these guys run by feel, they don't have garmins on and with the wind that day, a fast time was on. I think he's as good as Ryan Hall if not better so will be interested to see how fast he goes in Fukuoka, I certainly expect he'll be in the lead group to 20 miles.

He obviously is 100% sure he can run an easy 2:15 to qualify for the olympics but he'll learn nothing from doing that so he's right to gun it at boston and next at Fukuoka - if come next april he has still not finished a marathon I'm sure then he will play it safe and run 2:15. He has a short time to "learn" the marathon and I think he's going about it the right way. I was surprised to hear Mark Keneally (being interviewed at Dublin Marathon) saying he was probably not going to run another marathon before the olympics - I would have thought it would be good to run one in april, really push your limits and see what your breaking point is?? Experience is what you get from making mistakes afterall.

SeanKenny

Linda Byrne doesn't plan to run another one prior to London either unless she has to for selection. I heard her say that in an interview but can't recall where. There is merit to that as well. If you run a marathon to the limit in april, will you be ready to do the same thing in early august? Undoubtedly some of the kenyans will but they may not be the best case for comparison.

Taking in a marathon would also impact on training and eliminate the possibility to race more 10k, 10milers and even half marathons where the recovery time is substantially less. Sometimes we under estimate the recovery process for elite runners from hard marathons. This is not a guy out jogging marathons on successive days or completing 8 big city marathons in the same year that we are now accustomed to glorifying.

I think Cragg is more than capable of taking the Irish record. He has shown a tremendoius range from 3000m to half marathon already, rivalled only in Irish athletics by Mark Carroll. He is 100m better over 5000m that Treacy or Coghlan. His half marathon also suggests he can deliver the record too. The only box to be ticked is that he can last the full marathon distance and I believe he will achieve this in Fukuoka. It would be a tremendous boost for Irish distance running if he suceeds.

Woddle

SeanKenny wrote: »

Linda Byrne doesn't plan to run another one prior to London either unless she has to for selection. I heard her say that in an interview but can't recall where.

.

I heard her say the opposite. She said she could do with doing another. She said it after Dublin so maybe she has since changed her mind after sitting down with her coach.

Woddle

SeanKenny wrote: »

I think Cragg is more than capable of taking the Irish record. He has shown a tremendoius range from 3000m to half marathon already, rivalled only in Irish athletics by Mark Carroll. He is 100m better over 5000m that Treacy or Coghlan. His half marathon also suggests he can deliver the record too. The only box to be ticked is that he can last the full marathon distance and I believe he will achieve this in Fukuoka. It would be a tremendous boost for Irish distance running if he suceeds.

That's a great way of looking at it, I hope there's a feed somewhere to watch on the day.

thirstywork2

- I would have thought it would be good to run one in april, really push your limits and see what your breaking point is?? Experience is what you get from making mistakes afterall.[/QUOTE]


Disagree with you 100% here.there is a thing called peaking and athletes would find it very difficult to do this targeting a Spring marathon.
Sean Connolly has to as he hasn't got the time.
Te Kenyan marathon team has been picked already so they can take them to a training camp and keep them away from chasing money in a Spring marathon.

shels4ever

Woddle wrote: »

That's a great way of looking at it, I hope there's a feed somewhere to watch on the day.

Very good chance you'll get a stream of this, there is a japan running blog somewhere that has links , i'll have a look for that tonght.

ThePiedPiper

thirstywork2 wrote: »

Te Kenyan marathon team has been picked already so they can take them to a training camp and keep them away from chasing money in a Spring marathon.

My understanding of it is that only Abel Kirui has been confirmed as being on the team so far. The general consensus is that the two remaining places may be decided after the London marathon next year with the possibility that it could effectively be their Olympic marathon trial. Maybe I'm wrong.

Anyway, isn't this exactly what happened in 2008 prior to Beijing. Lel and Wanjiru were given their places on the team as a result of finishing 1st and 2nd respectively in the 2008 London marathon. As far as I remember, it was a fantastic fight between the two, only decided in the last half mile with Lel out-sprinting Wanjiru.

I don't think there's any possiblity of Athletics Kenya picking their three runners now and telling them they can't do a Spring marathon.

Sprocket77

RunForestRun wrote: »

My understanding of it is that only Abel Kirui has been confirmed as being on the team so far. The general consensus is that the two remaining places may be decided after the London marathon next year with the possibility that it could effectively be their Olympic marathon trial. Maybe I'm wrong.

Pretty sure Patrick Makau's been timed in the team already too.

TFBubendorfer

Gringo78 wrote: »

I think he's as good as Ryan Hall if not better

You gotta be kidding. Hall has a couple of top-3 placings in a major marathon and a few more top-10 ones to his name already.

Cragg has loads of potential, a lot of it unfulfilled as of now. Who can he be better than Hall?

G-Money

RunForestRun wrote: »

My understanding of it is that only Abel Kirui has been confirmed as being on the team so far.

Sprocket77 wrote: »

Pretty sure Patrick Makau's been timed in the team already too.

The Marathon Talk guys said the Kenyan federation seemed to be back tracking a bit as they had initially said Abel Kirui and Patrick Makau were selected. Not surprised really, they've got such strength in depth.

I think Geoffrey Mutai should be in the squad. 2:03:02 in Boston and took 2 minutes off the course record in New York.

Gringo78

TFBubendorfer wrote: »

You gotta be kidding. Hall has a couple of top-3 placings in a major marathon and a few more top-10 ones to his name already.

Cragg has loads of potential, a lot of it unfulfilled as of now. Who can he be better than Hall?

Obviously I'm talking potential here since Cragg has only DNF'd in the one and only marathon he has run. However, he has excellent 5k/10k times, is only a recent convert to road running and was relatively speaking a low mileage type of person only running 70mpw. Now that he has upped the mileage he has the potential to run a very fast marathon and has been in the form of his life over the last year. He is in marathon training and he is pb'ing at 5k - says a lot. Until he runs sub 2:06 of course he will not be better than Ryan Hall, but yes, I do believe he could be better than Ryan.

AEDIC

Gringo78 wrote: »

Obviously I'm talking potential here since Cragg has only DNF'd in the one and only marathon he has run. However, he has excellent 5k/10k times, is only a recent convert to road running and was relatively speaking a low mileage type of person only running 70mpw. Now that he has upped the mileage he has the potential to run a very fast marathon and has been in the form of his life over the last year. He is in marathon training and he is pb'ing at 5k - says a lot. Until he runs sub 2:06 of course he will not be better than Ryan Hall, but yes, I do believe he could be better than Ryan.

Hence my unfulfilled potential post earlier in the thread

I really do think its good for (marathon) running in Ireland having these two (and some others) starting to push on....

* Not Hall obv as he is merkin

shels4ever

TFBubendorfer wrote: »

You gotta be kidding. Hall has a couple of top-3 placings in a major marathon and a few more top-10 ones to his name already.

Cragg has loads of potential, a lot of it unfulfilled as of now. Who can he be better than Hall?

Hall himself has said that about cragg when training with him, of course is all a big "could be" and hall has been only running marathon for years now so Cragg would have alot to catch up on. But on pure talent he is on a par if not better then hall. But in terms of marathon experience not in the same league yet....

G-Money

Will this race be televised/online-evised?

Dan man

G-Money wrote: »

Will this race be televised/online-evised?

Shels4ever has said he will have a good root through the old interweb and get back to us, race starts at 12:10noon local time, so that means 3:10am Irish time on the Saturday night/Sunday morning, Dec. 4th.

shels4ever

Dan man wrote: »

Shels4ever has said he will have a good root through the old interweb and get back to us, race starts at 12:10noon local time, so that means 3:10am Irish time.

Found the blog, it was http://japanrunningnews.blogspot.com/ they ususally have updates on tv stations that cover the events.

The Fukuoka International Marathon will be broadcast live and should be available online for overseas viewers. Check back closer to race date for a further preview and online viewing information

From http://japanrunningnews.blogspot.com/

Dan man

Yep I was looking at this earlier, it says we might have to download some programme thingy first though?

shels4ever

Dan man wrote: »

Yep I was looking at this earlier, it says we might have to download some programme thingy first though?

sometimes its available on stream without that download, depends on the station its on.

JKF

Details on where to watch for anyone interested in getting up at an ungodly hour.. It coincides nicely with the babies' feeding time for me

http://japanrunningnews.blogspot.com/2011/12/watch-fukuoka-international-marathon.html?m=1

tang1

Fingers crossed he can knock out a good time and get the qualifying time needed for London next year.

Pronator

It would be great to see him get the qualifying time but how many times have we been here with this lad. Similar to Fagan has always had great ability but its now time to deliver. He is much better than the qualifying time but the field does not look great so I think he will run 2:12 (I'm being positive) or DNF.:(

AEDIC

Is that early hours of Sunday morning Irish time? 3am ish...

Pisco Sour

Pronator wrote: »

It would be great to see him get the qualifying time but how many times have we been here with this lad. Similar to Fagan has always had great ability but its now time to deliver. He is much better than the qualifying time but the field does not look great so I think he will run 2:12 (I'm being positive) or DNF.:(

13.03 for 5K, 7:32 for 3K, European Indoor Champion, Twice Olympic finalist (competing against a train of East Africans, which Coghlan and Treacy didn't have to worry about). Give the lad a break!

ecoli

Pronator wrote: »

. He is much better than the qualifying time but the field does not look great so I think he will run 2:12 (I'm being positive) or DNF.:(

I think the fact that there are no marquee names and that the majority of people in the race are around the 2.09 range will be good and help Cragg not going out too fast as he did in Boston. Personally I am optimistic of his chances as he has shown alot more mental strength this year than in previous (perhaps Uceny's influence) So if he does manage to finish the race I see the NR being taken down but that is the big if

Pronator

04072511 wrote: »

13.03 for 5K, 7:32 for 3K, European Indoor Champion, Twice Olympic finalist (competing against a train of East Africans, which Coghlan and Treacy didn't have to worry about). Give the lad a break!

Give Craig a break, was my post having a pop at Craig? Certainly not. I'd love to see him do it. I know all his stats. But's its now time to deliver over the longer distance otherwise he will be hard pushed to make London. This is not a 5k or a 3k or a HM, this is a full marathon which A. Craig is not proven over. You can have all the basic speed in the world but it does not necessarily translate over the marathon distance.

JKF

Pronator wrote: »

Give Craig a break, was my post having a pop at Craig? Certainly not.

I have a feeling this one will go down in the record books. I imagine he must be close to having the record for the most mispelled, mispronounced surname in athletics history also

AEDIC

You know the field isnt that great but if Lemoncello is in form he could be a good pacer.... all depends. I saw Lemoncello run a couple of really well paced marathons a few years ago and he certainly has the road race skills when he is fit.

Getting a real sense of anticipation for this now....cant wait for the live feed.

ecoli

AEDIC wrote: »

You know the field isnt that great but if Lemoncello is in form he could be a good pacer.... all depends. I saw Lemoncello run a couple of really well paced marathons a few years ago and he certainly has the road race skills when he is fit.

Getting a real sense of anticipation for this now....cant wait for the live feed.

I would hope that he would be a fair bit ahead of Lemoncello. He finished over a min ahead in New York early in the year and Andrew is a 2.13 man at best and has struggled with injury this year which forced him out of Daegu.

The lead group should within Cragg's range which has a wide range of sub 2.10 runners but no one in the field with a time faster than 2.07 (though Josphat Ndambiri I say will be faster than that on the day as he looks to be a strong competitor with a good pedigree at the shorter distances)

AEDIC

ecoli wrote: »

I would hope that he would be a fair bit ahead of Lemoncello. He finished over a min ahead in New York early in the year and Andrew is a 2.13 man at best and has struggled with injury this year which forced him out of Daegu.

The lead group should within Cragg's range which has a wide range of sub 2.10 runners but no one in the field with a time faster than 2.07 (though Josphat Ndambiri I say will be faster than that on the day as he looks to be a strong competitor with a good pedigree at the shorter distances)

All seems to be about the pace with Cragg this year though.... danger is if he goes out too quickly and Ndambiri is on one he could get into a 'race' too early we could be looking at another DNF.

He needs good even pace so he is running within himself so he can turn on the gas coming home - getting that qualifying time and a decent run under his belt is much more important at this stage than being on the podium (imho)

macinalli

AEDIC wrote: »

getting that qualifying time and a decent run under his belt is much more important at this stage than being on the podium (imho)

Probably true, but if he does decide that he wants to race for the win and goes for it, I wouldn't criticise him!