Morgiana Hurdle

mr.jingle

Hurricane Fly unfortunately out again the reason will be out later when Mullins issues a statement.

Leaves Pittoni at the head of the betting at around 5/4. Hacked up the last day against Donnas Palm and then DP went and won well last time out but at that price i wouldn't be backing him

Oscars Well around 5/2 and i'd expect a better performance than last day behind The Real Article where he traveled beautifully as he does but just emptied out the last furlong. Could well have won the Neptune only for a horrendous mistake at the last. My idea of the winner

Thousands Stars is around 3/1 and somewhat the most underestimated yet talented of Mullins whole yard running well in some top races ever since his Cheltenham win in 2010, may need the run but does have a huge heart and won't go down without a fight.

So Young around 9/2 is another of Willie Mullins who hacked up a couple of times last year before running a respectable race in the Neptune at Cheltenham when just under 5 lengths behind First Lieutenant but then ran no sort of race at the Punchestown festival when possibly over the top.

The last one Akatara way out her depth and will only finish better than 5th if one of the others makes a huge mistake 40/1

Morgans

I'd think the prices of Pittoni and Oscars Well are just about 100% wrong. I'd nearly swop their prices. Thought OW ran perfectly well first time out and is a better horse by more than a few pounds. He might be vulnerable on very quick ground over 2m, but that's not what's going to be the case on Sunday.

The one that I was looking forward to more than anyone was Unaccompanied - I think she could be capable of really making a mark this year. Really impressed with her last weekend as well. Pulled out with Hurricane.

Colonel Sanders

Oscars for me also. I should've taken some 25/1 for the champion after his Down Royal run

Free entry Sunday with the Tote Go Racing card

UrbanSea

Think taking Hurricane out makes the race look poor. Highlighted by the fact that Pittoni is favourite. I wouldn't like backing Oscar's Wells over two miles either

Oscars Well.

I have it in the bag lads :pac:.

sonnky

How is Pittoni favourite, has won 5 on the bounce but they were all in far worse company..

Juwwi

Im surprised A Thousand Stars is 3rd fav.
He is highest rated and has the best form unless
Mullins has said he'll come on for the run or something.

He'll cary my dole money if do have a bet.:D

Colonel Sanders

Was wondering about Thousand Stars. When The Fly was an intended runner I thought they might wait for Fairyhouse, 2m 4 would be right up his street too.

I'd say he's miles clear on OR & RP ratings.

UrbanSea

But I don't like backing horses who seem to have a failure to get their head in front

Juwwi

UrbanSea wrote: »

But I don't like backing horses who seem to have a failure to get their head in front

I dont think he's ungenuine I'd say its more the fact he always seems to run against Hurricane Fly and in the top races and is'nt good enough to
win the top races.

Looking at his form there on the 02 july 2009 he was beaten in a Bellewstown handicap hurdle off a rating of 108.

Then in 06 may 2001 at Punchestown he was 2nd to HF off a rating of 163.
Thats some improvement by the horse.
http://www.racingpost.com/horses/horse_home_popup.sd?horse_id=660883#topHorseTabs=horse_race_record&bottomHorseTabs=horse_form

UrbanSea

I hadn't realised he won in June actually.

Juwwi

UrbanSea wrote: »

I hadn't realised he won in June actually.

Yea I remember seeing a replay of it on ATR.
Grand Crus finished 6th in the race.

Oscars Well.

Hurricane Fly might miss the Hattons Grace at Fairyhouse aswell, there looking at the Istabrak Hurdle after Christmas.
http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/w-p-mullins-punchestown-punchestown-punchestown-hurricane-fly-could-be-out-until-christmas/948223/top/

UrbanSea

Hurricane Fly for the CH may well be the best ante post lay of the year. At this rate he won't turn up.

klairondavis

If he does make it though he'll win it hard held. The rest of the 2 mile hurdlers look very moderate. Looking at the potential field for Sunday and the Fighting Fifth proves that.

Some of the contenders being flagged up aren't in the same class as the likes of Peddlers Cross, Menorah, Solwhit, Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars who are all being aimed at different races this season. Pittoni, Oscars Well and The Real Article would struggle to get Hurricane Fly off the bridle. Things aren't much better across the water where Binocular appears to be the best. It's a major stretch of the imagination to think one of last year's juveniles like Zarkandar or Granduoet could win a Champion Hurdle. If Hurricane Fly turns up on the day he'll be odds on IMO.

Morgans

Spirit Son

klairondavis

Seemed to improve for two and a half at Liverpool and did get a bit outpaced coming down the hill at Cheltenham. He was a bit green though and probably would have won if he hadn't ran around after the last. Looks like more of an Aintree Hurdle horse to me but with improvement he may be up to winning a Grade 1 over two miles.

Morgans

Im not convinced last years champion hurdlers were up to much. I think Hurricane Fly is by a few pounds the best of them, but I dont think its a very high bar that he sets. Also, for me, he is not an ante post bet. Spirit Son at 12s is a far more viable option.

RichieLawlor

UrbanSea wrote: »

Hurricane Fly for the CH may well be the best ante post lay of the year. At this rate he won't turn up.

Antepost lay of the year lol! Holy Hyperbole

Your overreacting, Mullins is known for taking it easy on his horses. And he has said some of his horses are a bit backward. He is in no rush to get runs into them.

Morgans

I think it was overreacting, but he was being prepared for the morgiana and Hattons grace.

Its not like they decided on Monday/Tuesday to wait until after christmas.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

Im not convinced last years champion hurdlers were up to much. I think Hurricane Fly is by a few pounds the best of them, but I dont think its a very high bar that he sets. Also, for me, he is not an ante post bet. Spirit Son at 12s is a far more viable option.

I really think your doing the horse an injustice, and continually doing it for whatever reason.

Hurricane Fly has done absolutely nothing wrong in his hurdling career and it's still impossible to say how good he could be. He's only 7 and very lightly raced

And as for last years CH, Peddlers Cross is a serious animal at any trip, and he whizzed by him like he wasn't there. Fair enough maybe nothing else ran its race.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

I think it was overreacting, but he was being prepared for the morgiana and Hattons grace.

Its not like they decided on Monday/Tuesday to wait until after christmas.

Yes perhaps but I was responding to the 'ante post lay of the year' comment

Morgans

Hurricane Fly's form is 100% wrapped up with Solwhit and Peddlers Cross. I see Peddlers Cross as a gold cup type rather than a Champion Chaser. He won by 1 1/2l. Maybe value for a bit more, but not much. Its like he has an imaginary ten lengths up his sleeve when he needs it. Hurricane Fly won the champion hurdle and is the most likely winner of it again this year, but it doesnt mean that he sets a huge standard. He a slightly above average winner in my book.

Morgans

The point is that an injury prone horse getting injured isnt good news. He is unlucky not to have more cheltenham wins to his name.

Colonel Sanders

Timeform rated last year's champion pretty highly. I think they said Peddlers mark would have been good enough to win 8 of the previous 10 renewals.

mdwexford

klairondavis wrote: »

If he does make it though he'll win it hard held. The rest of the 2 mile hurdlers look very moderate. Looking at the potential field for Sunday and the Fighting Fifth proves that.

Some of the contenders being flagged up aren't in the same class as the likes of Peddlers Cross, Menorah, Solwhit, Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars who are all being aimed at different races this season. Pittoni, Oscars Well and The Real Article would struggle to get Hurricane Fly off the bridle. Things aren't much better across the water where Binocular appears to be the best. It's a major stretch of the imagination to think one of last year's juveniles like Zarkandar or Granduoet could win a Champion Hurdle. If Hurricane Fly turns up on the day he'll be odds on IMO.

Not a prayer of him being odds on, takes a hell of a lot for a horse to be odds on at the festival.

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I really think your doing the horse an injustice, and continually doing it for whatever reason.

Hurricane Fly has done absolutely nothing wrong in his hurdling career and it's still impossible to say how good he could be. He's only 7 and very lightly raced

And as for last years CH, Peddlers Cross is a serious animal at any trip, and he whizzed by him like he wasn't there. Fair enough maybe nothing else ran its race.

He has missed two festivals due to problems though, hes a big ante post risk.

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

Not a prayer of him being odds on, takes a hell of a lot for a horse to be odds on at the festival.

Yes even Big Bucks can't manage to start odds on

He has missed two festivals due to problems though, hes a big ante post risk.

Again, I was responding to the 'ante post lay of the year' comment. I said it was overreacting.

Anyway who backs HF ante post at 7/4 almost deserves to lose their money, he will be that price on the day no matter what happens.

Morgans

Bookies are so competitive these days at cheltenham that ante post is getting more and more meaningless.

premierstone

Morgans wrote: »

Hurricane Fly's form is 100% wrapped up with Solwhit and Peddlers Cross. I see Peddlers Cross as a gold cup type rather than a Champion Chaser. He won by 1 1/2l. Maybe value for a bit more, but not much. Its like he has an imaginary ten lengths up his sleeve when he needs it. Hurricane Fly won the champion hurdle and is the most likely winner of it again this year, but it doesnt mean that he sets a huge standard. He a slightly above average winner in my book.

Then you really need to start reading a new book, The Flys performance in last years Champion was along with Binocular the best We have seen since Istabraq, and he has beaten everything put in front of him as he likes. If as you say he was only a slightly above average winner so above average we'll say you rate him as the 4th best of the last 10, who are the three that were above him??

Morgans

Id have him on a par with Rooster Booster and Hardy Eustace (first win) A bit behind officially, but Hurricane may be 1l better than his official winning distance in march.

Trust me, no one was happier to see Peddlers Cross win his novice but he needs further than 2m. The idea that Peddlers Cross was a wonderhorse that Hurricane Fly slayed over hurdles is wholly beyond me. Has chaser written all over him and staying chaser I believe.

I have nothing against him, Solwhit, Thousand Stars or Hurricane Fly, but the form isnt Istabraq (also mediocre opposition when winning multiple champion hurdles) and I think Hurricane Fly may need to improve again to beat whatever up and comers come out of the woodwork. Few thought Hardy Eustace was waiting for Rooster Booster.

Morgans

premierstone wrote: »

We have seen since Istabraq, and he has beaten everything put in front of him as he likes.

As he likes. Ive looked at the video again to see if I was imagining the race. Before you check to disprove me. How many times was Hurricane Fly whipped from the last in the champion hurdle to win "as he liked" by 1 1/4l?

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

but Hurricane may be 1l better than his official winning distance in march.

And your doing it again, maybe only 1l better, he ran keen and pulled Rubys arms out the whole way round, a point ruby echoed afterwards.

Then he turned up at Punchestown and won doing handstands.

I also remember you saying you didn't think Big Bucks had much left when he beat Time for Rupert in the 2010 Stayers Hurdle.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

As he likes. Ive looked at the video again to see if I was imagining the race. Before you check to disprove me. How many times was Hurricane Fly whipped from the last in the champion hurdle to win "as he liked" by 1 1/4l?

Yes but you clearly missed him running free for the 2 miles before that

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

And your doing it again, maybe only 1l better, he ran keen and pulled Rubys arms out the whole way round, a point ruby echoed afterwards.

Then he turned up at Punchestown and won doing handstands.

I also remember you saying you didn't think Big Bucks had much left when he beat Time for Rupert in the 2010 Stayers Hurdle.

Ive watched the whole race again there. He travelled well. Certaintly didnt pull noticeably harder than Peddlers Cross. Who like the stayer that he is got outpaced and under pressure earlier than Hurricane Fly, who travelled like a dream down the hill, but was all out to win. He could not have gone any faster up the hill.

Big Bucks couldnt have gone much faster up the hill last year either against Grand Crus, and it was the same with Big Bucks. Its just that had the pace been quicker he would be able to murder animals over the last 4-5f. He just isnt very quick. Its like putting Gebresellassie in a Irish 400m championship. He may win, but he would be sprinting as hard as he could to do so. If you want to mis-read me, go ahead. He was all out last March also. He could not go any faster.

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Yes but you clearly missed him running free for the 2 miles before that

I thought he was perfectly settled. Why not judge for yourself by watching the race. Even if he ran free, what difference does it make? It doesnt mean that he wont run free next time out. Why not run free in the slower paces in Ireland? Oscar Whisky flattened hurdles and made mistakes, should be judge him to be better than he is, because of it.

Morgans

you'd expect some mention of it in the racing post.

Interesting comments I suppose

Held up in touch, steady headway to track leaders 2 out and soon travelling well, driven to take slight lead last, ridden and edged right run-in, held on all out

But yeah, its me who is disregarding the hidden 10l he had up his sleeve.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

Ive watched the whole race again there. He travelled well. Certaintly didnt pull noticeably harder than Peddlers Cross. Who like the stayer that he is got outpaced and under pressure earlier than Hurricane Fly, who travelled like a dream down the hill, but was all out to win. He could not have gone any faster up the hill.

Big Bucks couldnt have gone much faster up the hill last year either against Grand Crus, and it was the same with Big Bucks. Its just that had the pace been quicker he would be able to murder animals over the last 4-5f. He just isnt very quick. Its like putting Gebresellassie in a Irish 400m championship. He may win, but he would be sprinting as hard as he could to do so. If you want to mis-read me, go ahead. He was all out last March also. He could not go any faster.

You keep saying this as if your the only one capable of watching the race. I have watched it, he pulled harder than in any other race I'd seen, I've watched a few and compared them, the jockey said the same.
Let's move on, this im right your right nonsense isn't going anywhere.


Big Bucks ambled up beside TFR and went away and won, I haven't looked but I'm fairly sure he was not bashed around by Ruby to pull away, if the race had been a furlong longer I'm sure he would have kept pulling away.

This year he took up the running a mile out and kept finding up the hill without the help of a stick. He was pulling away at the end. I think Aintree answered these questions.

Question for you Morgans, Do you think BB is any better than his OR of 174, same question for HF

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

you'd expect some mention of it in the racing post.

Interesting comments I suppose

Held up in touch, steady headway to track leaders 2 out and soon travelling well, driven to take slight lead last, ridden and edged right run-in, held on all out

But yeah, its me who is disregarding the hidden 10l he had up his sleeve.

Again I've watched the race, which means more to me than some report, I've also heard the jockey say it. (Ruby btw not Townend) but this is getting us no where

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

You keep saying this as if your the only one capable of watching the race. I have watched it, he pulled harder than in any other race I'd seen, I've watched a few and compared them, the jockey said the same.
Let's move on, this im right your right nonsense isn't going anywhere.


Big Bucks ambled up beside TFR and went away and won, I haven't looked but I'm fairly sure he was not bashed around by Ruby to pull away, if the race had been a furlong longer I'm sure he would have kept pulling away.

This year he took up the running a mile out and kept finding up the hill without the help of a stick. He was pulling away at the end. I think Aintree answered these questions.

Question for you Morgans, Do you think BB is any better than his OR of 174, same question for HF

Start a new thread on big bucks if you want. I think Big Bucks has more capacity to improve on what he has shown on the racecourse thus far. It will depend on getting a horse good enough to keep going with him for 4-5f. People thought it was punchestowns, and that it could have been grand crus. Defintely more than Hurricane Fly. I dont think there is nearly the same scope.

I cant see any evidence for him pulling ruby's arms out at all in the video. For a couple of strides at teh top of the hill, as the leaders came back, he is snatched up and begins to run free. That's it. Dunguib is the free horse in the race. I think anyone who sees the race as otherwise is imagining things or isnt reading the race correctly.

Morgans

No, we'll use this video.

Publicly availbale. Can also use RUK if you wish.

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,415667,00.html

please show me where Hurricane Fly isn't settled. I'm intrigued.

RichieLawlor

Morgans wrote: »

No, we'll use this video.

Publicly availbale. Can also use RUK if you wish.

http://horses.sportinglife.com/Video/Racing/0,27770,415667,00.html

please show me where Hurricane Fly isn't settled. I'm intrigued.

Dunguib is stuck on him most of the way round, and as you say is clearly running free and HF is running with him. Just because you don't see Ruby snatching him up doesn't mean he is settled. And again, I'm sure you know better than Ruby Walsh but he also said it in his post race interview, I'll post it for you when I get to a PC

Morgans

Some jockeys are worth listening to, some arent. Azertyuiop will never get beaten by Moscow Flyer again, being one of Ruby's doozies. And I will always use my own eyes over a jockeys post race comments. How many of the other jockeys were asked if there horse was running free?

If you cant point it out to me on the video, or if there is anyone else who shares your opinion who cant point where Hurricane Fly isnt settled, then Im going to have to use my own eyes and say that he travelled brilliantly through the race, like the class horse, and unlike many that do that, found enough up a hill to beat a good horse in second.

He couldnt have settled better and running free didnt cost him anything more than 1l. Im even wondering why I thought he deserved that length.

UrbanSea

I don't think I'm getting a bit overexcited Richie.
Not many horses are that short(7/4) for Cheltenham.
The fact that he hasn't made it to 2 of the last 3 Cheltenham festivals,and he's missing his first two this season,puts alarm bells ringing. I'd gladly lay him

RichieLawlor

I guess this will be another of those threads when your proven wrong in March.

I've watched all of HF races, and he ran much more freely beside Dunguib than he ever has before, maybe it was his first time in Cheltenham that stirred him up, and the 1st thing the jockey said when he won was he ran too free. My read of the race plus Rubys comments will do for me.

RichieLawlor

UrbanSea wrote: »

I don't think I'm getting a bit overexcited Richie.
Not many horses are that short(7/4) for Cheltenham.
The fact that he hasn't made it to 2 of the last 3 Cheltenham festivals,and he's missing his first two this season,puts alarm bells ringing. I'd gladly lay him

I'm not disagreeing with you. I'm saying your comment of 'the ante post lay of the year' was over the top.

Morgans

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I guess this will be another of those threads when your proven wrong in March.

I've watched all of HF races, and he ran much more freely beside Dunguib than he ever has before, maybe it was his first time in Cheltenham that stirred him up, and the 1st thing the jockey said when he won was he ran too free. My read of the race plus Rubys comments will do for me.

Yeah. Classy RichieLawlor. Of course, one of those special characters who prefer to talk big and not back it up with money when given the opportunity, instead prefer to use it as currency when losing an argument. So I'll take it that you cant point out on the video where Hurricane Fly wasnt settled. Fair enough.

Those who were around 2 years ago know that Peddlers Cross ante post will have kept me well in profit for a few cheltenhams to come. Still the biggest win of my life on a single bet. Or when I was urging caution regarding master minded when everyone thought he was a cert to win his third Champion Chase. Or when I was arguing last year with one of the intelligent people on the forum over Binocular etc.

But that's where we are at. Fair enough.

newuser89

What was your big bet morgans.
Tell me horse and odds if you dont want to say money side a things.

Morgans

Peddlers Cross 33/1 for the Neptune after winning his novice at Bangor. A decent horse that may still improve - Alverstone - was the only real opposition that day, but I couldnt have been more impressed. He hacked up in a bumper at Haydock a few weeks before on debut. Got a little scared closer to the meeting and made sure I had Rite of Passage covered as well. But had both each way.

mdwexford

Just watched it again to refresh my memory. Maybe hes pulling a bit going down to the first but apart from that he looks pretty settled.

longshotvalue

Had a look at the race again, and really Peddlers Cross is very impressive to keep at it to the finish considering he was off the bridal much sooner the Hurricane Fly..

The 2 mile hurdling and chasing Brigade this year looks very poor really (Hurricane should be clear if he turns up , and i really fancy Tataniano for the Champion (on good ground))

It going to be difficult enough to get either Peddlers Cross or Grand Crus beaten at the festival this year in novice company..

Huntey

aidankkk wrote: »

The 2 mile hurdling and chasing Brigade this year looks very poor really (Hurricane should be clear if he turns up , and i really fancy Tataniano for the Champion (on good ground))

I would disagree about the 2 mile hurdlers, Grandouet, Spirit Son and Zarkander will all shape into quality horses.

This years renewal has the potential to be much stronger than 2011 all going well.