Betfair Chase 2011

Nulty

Rubi Light for me in this eachway at 14/1. Excellent run in the Ryanair in March and there should be more to come. I don't realistically think he will beat Long Run but LR is too short to consider betting. He should win though. Kauto Star is on a retrieval mission, or even just to show that run at Punchestown is the last of him. Who knows how he'll run. Only Long Run and Diamond Harry have jocks booked and with only 8 in the field at the 5 day stage I'd seriously recommend you take and antepost each way on one of the bigger priced possibles. With less than 7 likely to run and the offer of 3 places still on offer.

NaiveMelodies

Rubi Light looks a very good pick, didn't even cross my mind he'd be running till I saw this. Nice step up in trip and seems to go on good ground, might prefer it a bit softer though?
Would have won easily vs Sizing bar the fall last time out. Also a mistake in the Ryanair last year one or two out(??), potentially cost him the race vs Albertas run.

Has to be a question mark or two over first three in the market, Long Run is obviously the superstar but only placed over first 2 starts last year.
Diamond Harry could be seen to be in need of the run too, and of course Kauto has plenty of doubts at this stage.

Colonel Sanders

Thanfully connections have seen sense & won't run Grand Crus, I'm a huge believer of keeping novices to novice races. for every Iris Gift there's too many Rhinestone Cowboys are worse Gloria Victus

Rubi Light could be an interesting one alright, has the benefit of a run & could be a big price ew if you knew 100% they planned to run.

Nulty

He's declared at 5 days and has no other engagements ~ I'd say he will turn up barring an accident

UrbanSea

Weird Al for me each way. Impressed me last time when beating TFR and he has excellent potential over fences I think

Ruffian_72

I would side with Rubi Light aswell but it is very competitive.

On a side note I'm looking forward to seeing him go up against Mossey Joe at some point in the season aswell if it happens.

artanevilla

Rubi defo runs bar a disaster!

Juwwi

Lads what the rule ante post betting.
If I back Rubi Light now with the place terms 1/5th the odds first 3
and then on the day there is less than 8 runners do you still get the place terms 1st 3 that are up when u place the bet or the new place terms that are in place on the day.

UrbanSea

Nope you'd get the first three robbie,that's the beauty of it

Jayo11780

I think I'll be loading on Long Run myself...
SP will probably be 4/5 or worse but Can't see him be got near.
Personally think Kauto should have been retired after Punchestown and can't see him being involved..
Forecast: Long Run/Rubi Light/Diamond Harry

UrbanSea

Can't say I'd lump on a horse who needed the run last season.

I think there will be better 4/5 shots between now and then,even if it's in a maiden at Wolverhampton

Morgans

I think the 5/6 about Long Run with PP is quite generous. It was exactly the same arguement regarding Imperial Commander last year.

Long Run probably wont want to leave his season behind him at the weekend but he is by a long margin the most talented animal in the field (now that KS form has peaked) I think the 4/6 that some bookies are quoting is closer to his real odds.

If you want to go EW, I think Diamond Harry is a dangerous horse when fresh. Rubi Light is underrated by many, and will win a big one, but maybe still not up to this league.

Johner

Rubi Light is out lads. Won't be running.

Colonel Sanders

Hennessy quoted on the sporting life saying he'll travel all going well

Long Run will win if he's in any way wound up, Timeform have him miles clear. I'll be looking at Rubi Light in the w/o Market though.

I think Long Run will start 4/6 or so. Although Imperial drifted last year, I got over evs on Betfair just before the off.

Edit: Rubi Light now not quoted in many lists on oddschecker.

RichieLawlor

I'm gonna back Kauto Star. I've no interest in backing LR at odds on and 10/1 e/w isn't bad, an it could possibly be his last race and I'm a sentimental gob****e (I followed Harchibald off a few cliffs)

While he may not be as good as he once was, he can be as good once as he ever was

I'd settle for him coming back sound and a happy retirement

Rastapitts

Nacarat is a big price considering he always runs well early in the season

meriwether

Rastapitts wrote: »

Nacarat is a big price considering he always runs well early in the season

He ran like a black and white ass on his debut this season in the race Wierd Al won.

I know because I backed him.

Come now lads, seriously.

Its Long Run. It just is. I appreciate you might get a better 4/6 shot on the football coupon, but there's sod all point backing a horse for a place unless you think he has a shot of winning.

LR is miles better on every metric.

sportsadvisor

meriwether wrote: »

He ran like a black and white ass on his debut this season in the race Wierd Al won.

I know because I backed him.

Come now lads, seriously.

Its Long Run. It just is. I appreciate you might get a better 4/6 shot on the football coupon, but there's sod all point backing a horse for a place unless you think he has a shot of winning.

LR is miles better on every metric.

i have won my fair share on long run over the years but horses are not machines.
i think LR if nothing goes wrong coud win by a distance but wont be backing odds on.
prob back weird al @7

artanevilla

Disaster, Rubi out.

Nulty

ffs

Oscars Well.

Would of backed Rubi Light w/o Long Run but i'll probably have a few bob on Weird Al now.

mike65

Just 6 runners is a pity, fancy Diamond Harry as the alternative to Long Run, just a pity he's not had a prep run still the price would be shorter if he had and goes well fresh with a win first time back every year.

Colonel Sanders

I'm going to find it hard not to back Long Run at odds against tomorrow. 11/10 with Hills & Powers. Stan James might well be industry top price during "happy hour".

Wary seeing Hills are top price a Henderson horse first time out though as I've said before on here but stable is in incredible form

Hulk Hands

I lumped at 11/10 earlier on. Flat track, easily jumped fences, decent ground, its all in his favour.

Even if he's not 100%, what's going to beat him? I'm a fan of weird Al, but he's nowhere near this class. Same for Nacarat and to a lesser extent, Diamond Harry. Kauto may run one last blinder and win, but im happy to take odds against on that not happening.

LR should be 4/6

Morgans

I agree with this. I also think that the horse is too good to have him going half cooked into a race.

Like last year, there are few enough opportunities when horses this far clear in ability (Kauto muddies the water somewhat) are odds against. He may lose, but I think its too good an opportunity to pass up.

I think Diamond Harry could follow him home. Shame to be dismissing Kauto these days. Might look foolish.

UrbanSea

If I can get the right odds (maybe 5/4) I'l back him. I've been telling myself not to,but he should win this.
Weird Al is the big danger for me

Colonel Sanders

6/5 with PP & Ladbrokes. 2.16/2.18 on Betfair. Keep an eye on Stan James prices 11-12, if Long Run is their happy hour horse they'll have to top it.

I was hoping it'd be 4/6 as it'd take the decision to back it out of my hands but looks like I'll be getting involved now.....

Colonel Sanders

If there are any Kauto backers out there the one thing in your favour is I'd be fairly sure Nicholls will have him far fitter for his first run than he has in the past.

That said his Punchestown run was abysmal & I just hope he comes back in one piece

Juwwi

I agree Long Run looks a good price at 6/5.
With the £1 million bonus for winning the 3 races and him being such a good horse it would be crazy to risk running him if he was'nt near 100% fit.

I might do the s/fc with time for rupert to come 2nd tho rather than limping on at 6/5.

Colonel Sanders

5/4 with Betfred

Juwwi

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

5/4 with Betfred

If stan james have him in their happy hour they are gona have to go 6/4..



Edit 11/8 Stan James for an hour.

prettyboy81

Just had a nice bet on MasterMinded, Oscar Whiskey, Long Run treble pays a little over 11/1 with paddypower.....

Colonel Sanders

Backed it at 11/8. Will probably regret it but price dictates actions.

Huntey

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

That said his Punchestown run was abysmal & I just hope he comes back in one piece

I would draw a line through that run, it was too soon after the Gold Cup.

He definitely has lost some of his quality but he hasn't declined so badly that he couldn't run amok against the likes of Roberto Goldback and Follow the Plan.

hucklebuck

I am backing Weird Al, for me it looked like he had plenty more in the Charlie Hall and the price is right.

Does anyone else think the bookies are trying to get people to back Long Run, he has been 4/6 all week and now 5/4, even if I was going to back him that would put me off.

I just hope they go a decent clip and we get to see if he can jump well at pace, he could of course be a better jumper going quicker but it will be interesting to see.

Really looking forward to it and hopefully we have a finish like last year.:D

Huntey

hucklebuck wrote: »

I just hope they go a decent clip and we get to see if he can jump well at pace, he could of course be a better jumper going quicker but it will be interesting to see.

Haydock probably has the easiest chase fences in England, not sure will we find out much about his jumping.

The price is a tricky one, at odds on people were probably trying to find something to take him on but at 5/4 the price seems pretty playable now.

Juwwi

If anyone wants to back Long Run at 11/8 I got a email from PP
You have you ring up and quote " Potty Price" just say u got an email.
Price usually finishes 15 or 20 minutes before the off.

Colonel Sanders

Diamond Harry very strong & goes well fresh.

2.32 Long Run. The stable vibes seem fine but money talks

ghosttown

super Kauto

Colonel Sanders

All hail King Kauto!

Brilliant stuff

TheMilkyPirate

Kauto star is STILL the king!!

x PyRo

Phenomenal. Absolutely delighted!

argosy2006

Kauto was like , yea try keep up !!!!!!!!

Nulty

That was something special

Juwwi

What a round of jumping.

RichieLawlor

That's what racing is all about

allthedoyles

Ruby deserves some credit too

mike65

Can't argue with that and you won't have get a better price this winter thats for sure.

Colonel Sanders

I'll never see another one like Kauto, absolutely phenomenal horse. Long Run might end up winning the Gold Cup but Kauto is still king

Great training performance from Nicholls.

sonnky

Hahahahaha! All the doubters proven wrong and Kauto proves he still has it.. Phenomanol!!!! King George here we come..

Hulk Hands

Never been so delighted after losing a race. What a brilliant creature