Hennessey Gold Cup 2011

Nulty

Looking forward to the next installment of the Hennessey only just under two weeks away. Plenty in here with a shout now Denman has had enough of it. Aiteen Thirtythree is another favourite of Nicholls and another I don't want to back at single figures. Especially antepost. I really liked Sarandos run in the Aintree novices last year and was tempted to back him on his return last week but the pundits put me off with their talk of him looking like he'd need the run and carrying condition. I missed the 33/1 before that race but I'm happy to take 16/1 now.

Wymott is another I'd consider but he was behind Sarando at Aintree and is a shorter price. Sarando has already been out, had a run and shown he is more than well and still a bigger price which seems odd. Diamond Harry has a jocket booked for the Betfair chase this weekend so he looks to miss the race.

Will be looking at the race more closely over the next week.

UrbanSea

Nulty are you thinking of Wayward Prince and not Wymott who never ran at Aintree

Nulty

Oh yeah, I got totally mixed up there. Disregard the reference to Aintree. Wymott is the one I want to be on there.

Morgans

I like the second season chasers in these but it looks to me that there are very few likely horses. Michel le Bon looks too inexperienced for me. Aiteen Thirtythree ran ok at Kempton and looked to have Somersby is trouble at one stage, but I just think that he is a little slow for the race. Great Endeavour looked a different horse last week but I just dont see him staying 3m2f. At the current prices, I'll pass.

The one horse that looks something of a forgotten horse and at 20/1 catches my eye is Planet of Sound. Assuming What A Friend staying to help the weights for the other Nicholls horses, I think he has a nice weight for a grade 1 winner (not the strongest Grade 1) and is unexposed at the trip.

The other horse that may have one or two pounds in hand of the handicapper at a big price is Razor Royale. Its Twiston-Davies time of year but this horse is a thinker. Should probably have won first time out but for idling badly after the last at Ascot. He did the same in the Racing Post chase a few years back. He travelled very strongly throughout the Ascot race and looked the likely winner for a long long way. There is no guarantee that the same wouldnt happen again if he was good enough to get into a winning position. Nicely weighted, I think that there is some value in the 40/1 available in the bookies.

UrbanSea

Razor Royale died yesterday Morgans. A pity

Morgans

Ah a shame.

Nulty

Really? Thats awful. I had a persistant attraction to that horse.

UrbanSea

Yeah broke his hind leg on the gallops yesterday. It's on RP,just don't have time to find the link,need to do a test now

Nulty

Particularly bad for the stable who are down in numbers and quality having lost Imperial Commander for the season and Khyber Kim losing form. They haven't got nearly what they had a year ago.

Morgans

I'd rarely if never have sympathy for Twiston-Davies. One of the more objectionable trainers for me.

Slattsy

Morgans wrote: »

I'd rarely if never have sympathy for Twiston-Davies. One of the more objectionable trainers for me.

I couldn't agree more, I despise the man. His treatment of Brennan last year, when he started putting his son up on nearly all the horses was a disgrace.

Sorry to go off topic, rant over.

Nulty

Slattsy wrote: »

I couldn't agree more, I despise the man. His treatment of Brennan last year, when he started putting his son up on nearly all the horses was a disgrace.

Sorry to go off topic, rant over.

You must feel the same about O'Brien then? Exactly the same story.

Having another stable with big firepower is only good for the sport. Whether you personally like the trainer or not his horses were good for racing

Nulty

I'm an awful fool. I put up Wymott here when he was 14/1 and took a price on him yesterday at 8s....I'm starting to lose my punting mind.

longshotvalue

Just gone trought he race, and trying to rule unlikely winners out ive come up with 4

Blazing Baily 40/1.
Great Endevour 7/1
Beshabar 14/1
Wayward Prince 10/1.


Given my likeing for longshots, Blazing Baily at 40/1 if i can get 5 places at that price looks great value..

premierstone

Out of curiosity why would you rule wayward prince out, along with 1833 they are my two against the field and 10/1 is a great e/w bet imo.

longshotvalue

premierstone wrote: »

Out of curiosity why would you rule wayward prince out, along with 1833 they are my two against the field and 10/1 is a great e/w bet imo.

im not im ruling him in, he is in my 4 for the race..

premierstone

Ah sorry read it arseways thought they were the initial 4 you had ruled out, help if I read the second part of your post!

handsomecake

michel le bon

Nulty

Tullamore Dew @ 33/1

There should be a good pace on in the race. Neptune Collonges knows only one way to win and thats from the front. Great Endeavour will be handy too and Tullamore Dew likes to be prominant also. He was outpaced at Cheltenham in the Centenary over 21f, over hurdles at 20f at Chepstow and seemed not to like the pace last time in the PP. He was dropped out the back in the PP and didn't seem to enjoy it as much. If they make use of him over this longer trip he should be better able to put in an effort. He looks a stayer who's unexposed despite his age, always doing his best work at the finish over an inadequate trip. He's a second season novice. Not as obvious as Beshabar but that one won and placed 2nd over 4m and 4 1/2 miles respectively. I wonder how Beshabar would handle the Paddy Power pace.

A long shot.

EDIT:
Just watched RPTV.....fools rarely differ!

Hulk Hands

I have Joncol at 20's. All the talk seems to be that he needs it heavy, but he's never encountered decent ground so he might act well on it.

Imo, he'll be a suspect stayer of 3m 2f so I think the decent ground might help him see it out. He's a classy type who's capable of taking a race like this

Diggy78

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I have Joncol at 20's. All the talk seems to be that he needs it heavy, but he's never encountered decent ground so he might act well on it.

Imo, he'll be a suspect stayer of 3m 2f so I think the decent ground might help him see it out. He's a classy type who's capable of taking a race like this

Unfortunately for your ante post bet it looks like Nolan disagrees with you.


Joncol ruled out of the Hennessy by Paul Nolan


By Tony O'Hehir 8:36PM 23 NOV 2011
JONCOL was last night ruled out of Saturday's Hennessy Gold Cup in a change of plan by trainer Paul Nolan who had earlier described the eight-year-old as "90 per cent certain " to run in the big Newbury event.

A general 14-1 shot, though as short as 12-1 with Ladbrokes, Joncol has been ruled out of the £150,000 guaranteed 3m2½f handicap due to the ground.


Explaining the decision Nolan said: " We were all set to run and Joncol was due to travel over by ferry on Thursday night. But having spoken tonight to a few people who had looked at the track we got reports that the ground is quicker than we would like for Joncol.
"He is a big horse best suited by plenty of ease and the ground would appear to begoing the other way. Consequently, we have decided against running him.
"His next race will probably be the John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown on December 11." Joncol won the 2m 4f Grade 1 Punchestown event in 2009.

http://www.racingpost.com/news/horse-racing/michel-le-bon-n-fehily-paul-nicholls-newbury-newbury-joncol-ruled-out-of-the-hennessy-by-paul-nolan/952024/

NaiveMelodies

Glad I haven't backed Joncol, but i was considering him for saturday.
I remember seeing the other day he said 90% certain... Did Nolan not do similar with Noble Prince? I'd be very pissed off if was an ante-post backer with this kind of bollix talk from Nolan.

I reckon one Nicholls top two have a good chance here, Michel Le Bon looks my pick at this stage, Fehily spoke good things today and Nicholls tends to be very honest about his horses chances unlike some trainers..

UrbanSea

I liked Wayward Prince a lot last season and think he's a good bet for Saturday

RichieLawlor

I haven't liked this race ever since I convinced myself New Alco would beat Denman (running off 161) that year.

premierstone

only1stevo wrote: »

Glad I haven't backed Joncol, but i was considering him for saturday.
I remember seeing the other day he said 90% certain... Did Nolan not do similar with Noble Prince? I'd be very pissed off if was an ante-post backer with this kind of bollix talk from Nolan.

As I have said many times on this forum Nolan wouldnt lie straight in bed, I wouldnt back one of he's untill I actually see them at the post, he is a good trainer mind you and I guess punters arent really he's concern but it is very fcuking annoying.

Colonel Sanders

18 go to post, not the classiest Hennessy (although maybe Denman spoiled me!)

Overthelast

My €1 e/w will go on planet of sound. Looks like he'll get his ground. All he needs to do now is out-jump the rest of the field...

realdanbreen

I see where they have brought in Yogi Breisner to help school The Great Bolster.
He fell at the first in the Paddy Power but he could be good value @20-1

Huntey

realdanbreen wrote: »

I see where they have brought in Yogi Breisner to help school The Great Bolster.
He fell at the first in the Paddy Power but he could be good value @20-1

As you say, Yogi didn't do much when he fell at the first two weeks ago.

premierstone

Huntey wrote: »

As you say, Yogi didn't do much when he fell at the first two weeks ago.

While I didnt backk him two weeks ago because of hes jumping blemishes, he was very unlucky in the Paddy Power and it wasnt a jumping error at all, Scudamore just fell out the side door, the horse actually jumped the fence fine.

knockostia

The Great Endeaveur

Wayward Prince


Tullamore Dew E/W

ft9

Wayward Prince for me EW

pudzy

im going with great endeaveur as well guys.. flying fit, he will take beating.

premierstone

pudzy wrote: »

im going with great endeaveur as well guys.. flying fit, he will take beating.

I cant understand how he is favourite on betfair tbh, imo he wouldnt stay 3m 2f in a horse box and anytime he has attempted any trip in that region it has ended in failure, I will lay him for a place.

Huntey

Great Endeavour is probably the one I would oppose easiest with the only worry being the yard are flying. I can't see him producing another big performance 2 weeks later with an extra 5f furlong to contend with.

klairondavis

Have fancied Wymott for this race for a long time. I think his Cheltenham flop could be a blessing in disguise because probably has a good few pounds up his sleeve as a result. Big fan of Graham Lee in these big field staying chases too. My only worry would be the ground might possibly be lively enough for him.

UrbanSea

I think the same. Wymott had the beating of Wayward Prince over hurdles and he gets six pounds from him tomorrow. I really fancy Wymott tonight,but love Wayward Prince,hope it's a 1-2

Nulty

I don't usually mix my drinks but Tullamore Dew grows another leg for the step up in trip and pas for Christmas...that's how it's going down.

realdanbreen

realdanbreen wrote: »

I see where they have brought in Yogi Breisner to help school The Great Bolster.
He fell at the first in the Paddy Power but he could be good value @20-1

C'mon the Bolster! in to 16's now and with 4 places paying wer'e looking good.

ft9

PaddyPower going 5 places tomorrow, if you have not placed your bet already.

argosy2006

Beshabar ew for me at pp

Mimikyu

This post has been deleted.

ft9

I would think so yeah. Check your bet receipt, it will be on that.

UrbanSea

I don't think so

ft9

I backed Wayward Prince yesterday and my bet receipt says 1,2,3,4,5

Colonel Sanders

Not sure where to post this but there's an under round book on the fighting fifth using best prices

Wayward Prince v strong in the Hennessy. Is he pricewise?

longshotvalue

Hennessy Gold Cup

Fair Along: Ive always believed he is a decent stayer, and today is the first time he has ever run with only 10 Stone. I think that is going to be significant for his jumping here. He proved himself in decent form over hurdles with his first start this year, and was poor enough when jumping poorly last time out at Cheltenham, but with his staying ability and 5 places getting paid in a race that many will struggle 40/1 EW looks plenty of Value. He has a tounge tie back on and if he can jump like he did for most of the race at Punchestown last year he stands a great chance of staying on into a place.

1 Point EW 40/1 5 Places Bet365 & Paddy Power

I had selected Blazing Baily Earlier on this week, he doesnt look on a great mark, but he came to life twice last year over fences, he stays well and if he is ready to go first time out, which is likely given the race he could get into the 5 places. The light weight will help him as well, and ill have a smal bit of the 50/1 available with bet365

.5 Point EW 50/1 5 Places Bet365

Ive had a change of heart for my main bet in this race, Im sure that P Nichols knows what is required to win this race, and he has been waiting to run Aiteen Thirtythree in this race for up to 2 years. He ran well enough of his season debut over far to short a trip against somersby, and is sure to be ready for today. The change in price this morning to 9/1 in a few places is looking very attractive now compared to him being fav for the last while. This race is nowhere near as stong as recent runnings and Nichols must be delighted with that, considering the quality in the race the last few years. He looks a certain stayer and there could be a lot of improvement in him today than what we have seen before.

3 Points win 9/1 Coral Will Hill

UrbanSea

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Not sure where to post this but there's an under round book on the fighting fifth using best prices

Wayward Prince v strong in the Hennessy. Is he pricewise?

Pricewise doesn't have one in it,but has already advise Planet of Sound and Michel le Bon.

He goes for Osric,Titan De Sarti and Hey Big Spender

Big Daddy Cool

sticking with Great Endeavor again today, question is if it stays the 3m2f, if it does i'd be hoping it should win.

UrbanSea

Wymott is too big for me to ignore now that he has gone to 10/1

Nulty

Wayward Prince won a G1 hurdle at Aintree....not one of the horses he beat there are now higher than their mark on that day over hurdles except Cannington Brook (who? Not a G1,2 or 3 hurdler and hasn't won in 4 starts over fences.). He won a G1 hurdle against 140 horses.