Colder weather 16th Nov ----->

darkman2

After a brief flirt with much milder weather increasingly the signs are that not only will it not last but that a shock is on the way immediately following. If we can lose the Euro high fairly swiftly and gain from a pressure rise to the North then very cold air from Scandinavia (much like last year) is likely. We need low pressure to have easy passage to the South. And we need the Jet Stream to aid a pressure rise to the North which in turn will lower heights and pressure to the South. Latest model runs suggest a real possibility of that happening. Watch this space (and date);)





Exciting times ahead - warm then freezing potentially.

leahyl

darkman2 wrote: »

After a brief flirt with much milder weather increasingly the signs are that not only will it not last but that a shock is on the way immediately following. If we can lose the Euro high fairly swiftly and gain from a pressure rise to the North then very cold air from Scandinavia (much like last year) is likely. We need low pressure to have easy passage to the South. And we need the Jet Stream to aid a pressure rise to the North which in turn will lower heights and pressure to the South. Latest model runs suggest a real possibility of that happening. Watch this space (and date);


Exciting times ahead - warm then freezing potentially.

Thanks Darkman2! It's starting to get really exciting now! Like last year! :-D

Iancar29

I wonder If I should post this to IWO ???.... Very tempted indeed!!! .... Mark might dislike the idea though hehe ..

Excitementness!!

dsmythy

Sorry Darkman but the GEM is the only one showing that strong a set up. Maybe the others will come into line yet who knows.

thetonynator

dsmythy wrote: »

Sorry Darkman but the GEM is the only one showing that strong a set up. Maybe the others will come into line yet who knows.

Fully agree, its 10 days away, we had freezing easterlys 10 days away in the models for about 2 months last january and february. Even more premature than the other thread!

MiNdGaM3

The difference between the 06z and the 12z quite interesting. Here on the 13th, the 12z tries to link up the Scandi/Euro high with Greenland. Tentative signs of this pattern change perhaps?

ninebeanrows

12z very different to the 6z in FIsland.

Only early days yet.

Harps

Unusual to see such a big difference before 192h, still very bland and boring charts even into deep FI though. Looks like the high is sticking around for another week and there's no strong signs of a big pattern change once it does go. GEM and to an extent UKMO are the only models going for anything remotely interesting

Still, cant say I'm complaining after the disastrous October we had around here, mild, sunny and dry will do nicely for another week. My prediction of a very dry November is looking good so far

darkman2

Harps wrote: »

My prediction of a very dry November is looking good so far

Yes, 100% right. Nice prediction. Also good you brought that up because this is not the average November setup. Normal conditions this time of year are the raging westerly winds and rain.

Latest UK Met Office charts show again it's going to be very mild for a time but it's events both up and downstream that are most interesting for us. Notably the signs of pressure rising to the North. This chart has change written all over it. Just the high pressure over Europe we need out of the way.

Sponge Bob

Right, so does that latter chart mean Hot Snow????

nacho libre

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Right, so does that latter chart mean Hot Snow????

it means the potential is there for the weather to turn colder if the euro high moves towards scandinavia, or one builds up there after the euro high disappears, as it will help to push the jet stream southwards and allow colder air to flow down to us. the ideal scenario at some point during this winter would be an omega block from a scandi high and a greenland high, but sadly Carlsberg don't do a perfect winter weather synoptic.

darkman2

It means...exactly what Nacho says. Well put. So the ads were wrong then about Carlsberg doing a perfect winter weather synoptic :mad:

thetonynator

The warm weather thread gets 1 thank. The cold (and less likely!) weather thread gets 21 . . . we all know where this forums loyalties lie!

pauldry

its been freezn all year so it would be a shame to ruin it now so roll on icebergs the size of new york city!

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

its been freezn all year so it would be a shame to ruin it now so roll on icebergs the size of new york city!

Temps in every month except January, June and august have been above average, with February, April and October well above average.

fizzycyst

thetonynator wrote: »

The warm weather thread gets 1 thank. The cold (and less likely!) weather thread gets 21 . . . we all know where this forums loyalties lie!

Although I prefer cold, I tend to thank people for putting the effort in to any forecast, be it positive or negative

thetonynator

If we were to get a decent cold easterly, with sst's in the irish sea at nearly 14 degrees, there would be some monster streamers springing up!

pauldry

as i was saying b4 its been freezn all year (in Sligo)

but averages up due to cloud cover at night

darkman2

This is more like it....




Basically if it evolves like that increasingly harsh frosts would occur and becoming colder overall with a good chance of much colder weather from Scandinavia coming in too. Would like to see more undercutting by atlantic systems but that's a good setup if you want ice and snow at some point.

WolfeIRE

A short animation of the 850hpa's toward the end of the latest GEFS run

bb1234567

thetonynator wrote: »

Temps in every month except January, June and august have been above average, with February, April and October well above average.

july was above avg?:eek: hard to believe!

fizzycyst

bb1234567 wrote: »

july was above avg?:eek: hard to believe!

July temps were below average everywhere except for Bellmullet

http://www.met.ie/climate/monthly_summarys/july11sum.pdf

Speak Now

thetonynator wrote: »

The warm weather thread gets 1 thank. The cold (and less likely!) weather thread gets 21 . . . we all know where this forums loyalties lie!

21 lads looking to lock the lawnmower away

pistolpetes11

Jerry Seinfeld wrote: »

21 lads looking to lock the lawnmower away

Cut the grass there bout 12 days ago and was thinking that will be it for the winter now ,

Looking at it tonight on the way in I was thinking it could do with a little trim , and with a few midlish days on the horizon its going to have to get done !

Speak Now

pistolpetes11 wrote: »

Cut the grass there bout 12 days ago and was thinking that will be it for the winter now ,

Looking at it tonight on the way in I was thinking it could do with a little trim , and with a few midlish days on the horizon its going to have to get done !

Gave it trim yesterday, amazing frost on it this morning

darkman2

Excellent UKMO for cold.




What comes shortly after that is just as ravaging in terms of cold and potential snow and ice as last year - if it occurs. That is more like the undercutting we want to see;)

leahyl

darkman2 wrote: »

Excellent UKMO for cold.




What comes shortly after that is just as ravaging in terms of cold and potential snow and ice as last year - if it occurs. That is more like the undercutting we want to see;)

Was it this way last year darkman2 before the snow came? Was it the same sort of setup?

GavinH

Every year about this time, I get on boards to see whats coming for the winter. Living in Cork as everyone knows we get relatively little snow. Anyway I happy to report that this year I will be seeing plenty of snow, as myself and the family are moving to Utah.

leahyl

GavinH wrote: »

Every year about this time, I get on boards to see whats coming for the winter. Living in Cork as everyone knows we get relatively little snow. Anyway I happy to report that this year I will be seeing plenty of snow, as myself and the family are moving to Utah.

Oh my god best of luck! And be sure to post loads of pics of the snow!!:D

TheMilkyPirate

Fair play, Utahs a beautiful state. With great weather too, searing hot in the summer and bucket loads of snow (i hope your going to salt lake!) in the winter.

Nice one!

TheFairy

This still on the cards?

Musicman2000

TheFairy wrote: »

This still on the cards?

unless the models change, no

eskimocat

GavinH wrote: »

Every year about this time, I get on boards to see whats coming for the winter. Living in Cork as everyone knows we get relatively little snow. Anyway I happy to report that this year I will be seeing plenty of snow, as myself and the family are moving to Utah.

GavinH, you may not know the more traditional customs of the boardsies living abroad yet, but I feel obliged to tell you about them.
You see, folks in Ireland would wait in eager anticipation on the postman who would be delivering a box from far flung places..... gifts of all sorts of wonderful things would come out of these boxes.... things we couldn't get here...... Ahem... so..... I was thinking... that since you are going to be out where there is lots of snow.... that you could... out of the sheer kindness of your heart... arrange to send SNOW parcels here to a few snow starved boardsies in the Weather Forum! These poor creatures are in serious withdrawal and their supply of snow in their natural habit is not guaranteed. Please please please do all you can to support this worthy tradition.

Psst..Boardies.... this is where you sign up for the snow supply.... P & P extra :P

P.S best of luck to you and your family on your move..

Sponge Bob

Gimme a full snow forecast from the 16th please, this thread has been running for days now.

Icky Thump

im sooooooooooooooo confused

what is happening???

dont give me a chart with numbers i dont understand. tell me whether i need wellies or sun tan??? do i need skies or speedos???

Caitriona

Icky Thump wrote: »

tell me whether i need wellies or sun tan??? do i need skies or speedos???

Yes.

Icky Thump

Caitriona wrote: »

Yes.

ah i see what you did there:D

mike65

Icky Thump wrote: »

im sooooooooooooooo confused

what is happening???

dont give me a chart with numbers i dont understand. tell me whether i need wellies or sun tan??? do i need skies or speedos???

Its going to be mild with Irish amounts of wind and rain.

Iancar29

Ah now here where did all the rowdy people fall into the weather forum from?

Zis Iz Z Zveahter Forumz , Zwe are Allz a Happy Bunch , Zlease relaz and enjoyz z rollercoazter like z everzyone elze.... Zanka...

pauldry

Think this thread is dead and needs to close im off to fantasy island

thetonynator

pauldry wrote: »

Think this thread is dead and needs to close im off to fantasy island

The thread was opened on the basis of a single run of the GEM in FI without other model agreement. it was dead when it was opened.

je55ie

However a thread similar to this roughly same time last year was started by darkman2 and we all know how that turned out, no harm in it

leahyl

Snowsnowsnow wrote: »

Did anyone else just see the feature one daily show on RTE1?? It said very heavy snow and sub zero temperatures are forecast for 2 weeks time? I'm in Co. Derry, i'm quite high up and we've had a few hours of snow already! Yay

WHAAAT??!!!

Ah now I get it - first time poster....interesting!

only one

Really ? Did a forecaster say it?

Mental Mickey

leahyl wrote: »

Thanks Darkman2! It's starting to get really exciting now! Like last year! :-D

F**k off snow.

Reiketsu

Now now, be nice.

Conor30

Snowsnowsnow wrote: »

Did anyone else just see the feature one daily show on RTE1?? It said very heavy snow and sub zero temperatures are forecast for 2 weeks time? I'm in Co. Derry, i'm quite high up and we've had a few hours of snow already! Yay

No, didn't see that. I wonder where they were basing their information on! Hopefully, there's something in that and that they weren't just reiterating (sometimes rather unreliable) secondary sources such as Daily Express weather articles!

noworries

Snowsnowsnow wrote: »

Did anyone else just see the feature one daily show on RTE1?? It said very heavy snow and sub zero temperatures are forecast for 2 weeks time? I'm in Co. Derry, i'm quite high up and we've had a few hours of snow already! Yay

How close are you to Coleraine?

Musicman2000

Snowsnowsnow wrote: »

Gees can I not post for the first time without getting attacked No i've just been looking at this forum for a while now hoping for snow lol Yeah It just said that on the Daily show and I thought it might interest some of you. I don't know if its true though so don't shoot the messenger. I'd be so happy if it was though.

Im not sure where they are getting that info from, BUT according to this mornings ECMWF run there is signs of cold in fi, and looking at the latest UKMO run that Azores high is sitting in a nice position, the only model not playing ball is the GSF model for cold, Hopefully the ECMWF wont agree with the GSF on this evenings 12z run

Snowc

Mental Mickey wrote: »

F**k off snow.

Its great to see you back mickey with your **** posts :rolleyes:

mike65

The Daily Show is of course a well known source of insightful meteorology