Second Annual Winter Forecast Contest

M.T. Cranium · 05-11-2011 6:37pm #1

I am pleased to announce the return of the Winter Forecast Contest, this time with a prize to the winner of 20 Euros, yours truly excluded.

The rules will be similar to last year with a few minor adjustments. One of these will be the deadline. It remains 18th November (end of day) but further entries will be accepted at 5% per late day penalty until end of 28th Nov. In all Boards weather contests, we take 0300h of the following day as "end of day." So to be clear, the deadline without penalty is 0300h on the 19th of November.

The basis for our monthly temperature forecasts will be the "IMT" index which takes five stations (Shannon, Oak Park, Casement, Mullingar and Claremorris) as the basis. For the period 1981-2010, the means for the IMT were 5.4, 5.2 and 5.3 for the three winter months of Dec, Jan, Feb. Note that these have drifted up from 5.3, 4.6 and 4.7 in the earlier period 1961-90. Last December was very cold at -0.4 C, last January closer to average at about 3.5 C while last February was very mild at 6.6 C.

Here are the contest questions and rules, but take note before you start to read them, a handy "template" for your contest entry will be found at the end of the post.

All scoring for the contest will be done by rank order this time, with exact scoring details to be announced later based on number of entries received, but to give an idea, about two-thirds of entrants will score in each category, and equal numbers of them will share various points between 1 and 10 or 15 for the larger categories, and between 0.5 and 5 for the smaller ones.

1. Predict the average monthly temperatures (using the IMT) for December 2011, January 2012 and February 2012. From these entries, the contest organizers will calculate a seasonal average that is worth 15% of the points. The three monthly forecasts are each worth 5% of the points.

2. Predict the average monthly precipitation (liquid equivalent) from eleven sites used by Met Eireann in their monthly summaries (subject to any changes made by them). At present, these eleven stations include the five IMT sites and also Johnstown Castle, Cork, Valentia, Belmullet, Malin Head, and Ballyhaise. These predictions will be in percentages of normal values, and will apply to the same three months as above. We then calculate the seasonal average from your predictions. Scoring is similar (15% and 3 x 5%).

3. Predict the highest and lowest temperatures recorded at any stations in Ireland as reported by Met Eireann. About two dozen sites are considered, check the met.ie website for them. The contest values are determined by reports in the Monthly Summary. The maximum (which usually falls in the range of 14 to 18 C) will have to be recorded in the three winter months, but the minimum could be recorded earlier or later (in almost all cases, it is not recorded outside the winter three months anyway, but the contest runs to the 15th of April and so the data for the season's minimum temperature will include this month of Nov 2011, March 2012 and 1-15 April 2012). These two elements are each worth 10% of the points.

4. Predict the total seasonal snowfall at Casement, in cms. The season runs from today (as the total so far is zero) to end of 15 April. At that point, the contest is over and any further snowfall would be null and void for the contest although not for the season. Last winter, Casement received about 60 cms last winter although we were using a site in Laois which had about half that amount. Casement is generally more exposed to snowfalls from an easterly set-up but other types of snowfall may be distributed differently around the country, so think about the pattern when you make your prediction for Casement this winter.

5. Finally, predict the maximum gust wind speed in knots for all stations in Ireland (as per Met-E) in the winter three-month period, so excluding any windstorms that come along in November or March. Last year's contest value was 72 knots, considered a bit below average. An extreme high value would be around 115 knots perhaps.

TEMPLATE for ENTRIES

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB

2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB%

3. MAX MIN temps

4. SNOW cms

5. WIND kts

Entries to be received by 0300h Sat 19th Nov without penalty, then at 5% penalty per day to final deadline of 0300h Tues 29th Nov.

Prize to be awarded will retain your anonymity on the forum, so don't worry about a name or address being revealed.

Iancar29 · 05-11-2011 11:14pm

* STARTS CRUNCHING NUMBERS* ...
7cc0e5f38173ac08963e7ac9a745d33d.wix_mp

thetonynator · 05-11-2011 11:15pm

Iancar29 wrote: »

* STARTS CRUNCHING NUMBERS* ...

Don't you mean random number generator??? :P

Tom Cruises Left Nut · 05-11-2011 11:25pm

Lads lads lads....

The answer is obviously 42 ! :pac:

/thread

Strasser · 09-11-2011 8:36am

I'll get the ball rolling, I'm afraid I don't believe another artic winter is coming, I think the atlantic will dominate this year. However I'm below mid table in the general forecast competition so I'm probable wrong.

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 5.9 4.5 6.1

2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 110, 91, 115

3. MAX MIN temps 17.2 - 7.4

4. SNOW cms 20

5. WIND kts 87

Rebelbrowser · 09-11-2011 10:01am

My uneducated guess now is as good as my uneducated guess next week I suppose........

1. 3.8 2.6 5.6

2. 95, 80, 125

3. 16.1 - 11.6

4. 29

5. 79

pauldry · 09-11-2011 10:33am

I have my forecast posted on my website so ill predict in line with that.

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 6.6 3.7 6.9

2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 135, 99, 101

3. MAX MIN temps 17.5 -8.3

4. SNOW cms 17cms

5. WIND kts 75

Iancar29 · 09-11-2011 12:14pm

In for the fun of it

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 6.0 4.0 5.0

2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 90, 120, 85

3. MAX MIN temps 17.5 -13.0

4. SNOW cms 22cms

5. WIND kts 72

dsmythy · 09-11-2011 12:17pm

Why not sure.

1- Dec Jan Feb: 5.3 4.8 5.6

2- Dec% Jan% Feb%: 111% 71% 137%

3- Max, Min: 15.4c, -8.6c

4- Snow: 13cm

5- Wind 67 kts

nacho libre · 09-11-2011 3:52pm

I'll refrain from saying I'm going to win this so others won't be discouraged from entering the competition. My confidence is well placed given my standing in the annual competition :pac:

so here goes:

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 5.1 3.9 6.1
2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 85, 125, 105
3- Max, Min: 15.8c, -10.6c
4 . Snow 25cms
5. 83 knots

Mmcd · 09-11-2011 5:45pm

1. Temp 3.3 1.9 5.4

2. Precip 85% 75% 120%

3. 14.2 -13.7 temps

4. SNOW 18cms

5. WIND 83kts

scary · 09-11-2011 6:00pm

1. 3.5 2.9 5.4

2. 98 101 85

3. 14.4 -11.6

4. 18 cms

5. 79 kts

flying11 · 09-11-2011 6:20pm

1. Temp 5.1 , 3.6 , 4.7

2. Precip 113% 62% 85%

3. MAX= 17.1, MIN= -9.4

4. SNOW 31cms

5. WIND 76kts

Joe Public · 09-11-2011 6:27pm

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 5.9 2.7 3.1

2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 119, 79, 79

3. MAX MIN temps 14.3 -11.9

4. SNOW cms 22cms

5. WIND kts 81

Send me on the €20 now before we go back to the £

TheMilkyPirate · 09-11-2011 7:15pm

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 2.9 1.7 4.1

2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 124, 75, 90

3. MAX MIN temps 15.1 -14.4

4. SNOW cms 51cms

5. WIND kts 83

Tis gonna be a cold one.

NIALL D · 09-11-2011 7:24pm

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 4.7 2.9 3.5

2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 110, 85, 105

3. MAX MIN temps 15.2 -12.7

4. SNOW cms 33cms

5. WIND kts 79

M.T. Cranium · 09-11-2011 11:25pm

Here's my entry which is consistent with the winter forecast:

5.2, 1.5, 6.3

110, 80, 70

16.0 and -18.0

snowfall 39.4 cms

max wind 82 knots

--- thanks for entries so far, would guess with that pace we may see over a hundred contestants --- if so, will spring for ten euros for second place --- disclaimer, euro must be worth no more than 2.00 Cdn $ or prizes revert to $40 and $20 Cdn --- at the moment the exchange rate is about 1.50. --- in the event of change of currency in Ireland, equivalent amounts --- in the event of untimely demise of MTC, tough luck.

Rougies · 10-11-2011 12:21am

4.4, 1.1, 5.9

104, 82, 85 %

15.8, -16.2 C

41.8 cms

69 knots

thetonynator · 10-11-2011 10:32pm

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

--- thanks for entries so far, would guess with that pace we may see over a hundred contestants --- if so, will spring for ten euros for second place --- disclaimer, euro must be worth no more than 2.00 Cdn $ or prizes revert to $40 and $20 Cdn --- at the moment the exchange rate is about 1.50. --- in the event of change of currency in Ireland, equivalent amounts --- in the event of untimely demise of MTC, tough luck.

I would have found that statement ridiculous any other day than today!

WolfeIRE · 10-11-2011 11:48pm

Thanks M.T.

4.9, 3.1, 4.5c
90, 95, 71mm
15c, -17.6c
23cm
79 kts

I used the rock!

draft_lens2144147module11194677photo_1219863581weather_funny.jpg

Redsunset · 10-11-2011 11:54pm

3.0..0.5..4.9

80..90..110

17.0..-17.8

100cm

75kts

200motels · 11-11-2011 10:20am

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 5.7 4.7 6.3

2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 146, 139, 133

3. MAX MIN temps 16.4 - 10.5

4. SNOW cms 12

5. WIND kts 76

BLIZZARD7 · 11-11-2011 5:50pm

TEMPLATE for ENTRIES

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 4.9C -0.5C 2.4C

2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 98% 150% 85%

3. MAX MIN temps 14.5C -19.0C

4. SNOW cms 140cm

5. WIND kts 83

Its going to be arctic!!

:D

Dan :cool:

M.T. Cranium · 11-11-2011 11:48pm

Let's party like it's 1739. :eek:

Deep Easterly · 12-11-2011 12:58am

nacho libre wrote: »

I'll refrain from saying I'm going to win this so others won't be discouraged from entering the competition

A fine boast Nacho Libre, though utterly baseless, for here is the winning entry:

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 4.9 5.3 2.1
2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 180, 240, 30
3- Max, Min: 15.8c, -10.6c
4 . Snow 34cms
5. 96 knots[/QUOTE]

Wild Bill · 12-11-2011 3:09pm

A very average Winter ahead????

1. Temp DEC JAN FEB 5.5 4.2 5.1

2. Precip DEC% JAN% FEB% 100, 105, 80

3. MAX MIN temps 16.3c, -6.8c

4. SNOW cms 8

5. WIND kts 123

But a Night of a Big Wind on 27th January!

thetonynator · 12-11-2011 5:18pm

1. Temp 4.0 1.4 5.1

2. Precip 90% 76% 91%

3. 15.9 -7.2 temps

4. 24 cms

5. 77 kts

Harps · 12-11-2011 5:54pm

123 knots?? Think half the forum would be killed off if we got a storm like that!

1. 4.6 3.4 5.3

2. 110 75 120

3. 15.4 -8.5

4. 17 cm

5. 80 kts

homolumo · 12-11-2011 9:48pm

1. 5.0, 1.7, 6.0

2. 110, 85, 77

3. 15.5 and -13.3

4. 9.4 cm

5. 73 knots

okla · 12-11-2011 9:55pm

1.IMT 5 3.3 4.2

2. PRC 90 108 80

3. MAX 15.5 MIN-10

4. SNOW 28cms

5. WIND 75kts

M.T. Cranium · 13-11-2011 12:57am

About the 123 knots ...

No, half the forum would be complaining that it was over-predicted.

snowstreams · 13-11-2011 7:35pm

1. Temp 5.3 , 2.5 , 3.6

2. Precip 108 85% 95%

3. MAX= 16.4, MIN= -10.4

4. SNOW 33cms

5. WIND 72kts

talkabout · 13-11-2011 9:13pm

1. Temp 5.9 , 3.5 , 3.6

2. Precip 95% 105% 105%

3. MAX= 15.4, MIN= -9.4

4. SNOW 13cms

5. WIND 68kts

jdee99 · 15-11-2011 9:09am

Temp 5.3, 2.4, 3.1

Prec 112, 115, 90

Max 10.2 Min -15.6

Snow 16cm

Wind 68kts

Elmer Blooker · 15-11-2011 11:38am

1. Temp: 7.2 6.2 5.8

2. Precip: 80% 150% 120%

3. max = 15.8c min = -5.3c

4. Snow 3cm

5. Wind 72kts

oterra · 15-11-2011 1:50pm

1. Temp 7.5 6.6 6.0

2. Precip 75% 110% 120%

3. MAX MIN temps 13.7 -12.3

4. SNOW cms 26

5. WIND kts 78

Su Campu · 15-11-2011 6:38pm

1. Temp 5.3 4.9 5.5

2. Precip 100 95 115

3. 13.1 -8.8

4. 9 cms

5. 68 kts

Sponge Bob · 15-11-2011 8:53pm

5.5, 5.3, 5.4
100,100,100
14.7 -11.1
6cm
69kt

thetonynator · 15-11-2011 10:45pm

Sponge Bob wrote: »

5.5, 5.3, 5.4
100,100,100
14.7 -11.1
6cm
69kt

Looking forward to an average winter?! :pac:

Sponge Bob · 15-11-2011 11:01pm

Lots and lots and lots of snow and average!

karl tyrrell · 15-11-2011 11:39pm

1 TEMP -0.4c 3.5 8.6

2 87% 94% 152%

3 max min 14.8 -32

4 SNOW cms 75

5 WIND 82

So cold

M.T. Cranium · 16-11-2011 11:12pm

48 hours left to get into the game without penalty ... then we apply a 5% reduction in points for each day until the thread is locked (for a few weeks) on the morning of the 29th. I don't want to have to deal with any "oh can I count this anyway?" requests although I suppose at 55% off, it wouldn't matter that much. Just to clear up any disputes, the percentage off is absolute not relative, in other words, score 80 and 20% off means 60, not 64 and 47 with 50% off means -3. Just consider that a monkey with a typewriter could probably score better than that today.

(whoops, gave away my main trade secret)

:eek: