Paddy Power Gold Cup 2011

Nulty

I like Noble Alan and Quantitativeeasing for the race. It looks like the both of them will get the run. The shape of the race totally depends on whether Poquelin stays in as top weight. My understanding is that Wishful Thinking will come out if he's left with top weight. Mon Parrain is the favorite but I could never think about backing him as a 5yo at that price.

Segal is all over The Giant Bolster and I'm a big fan. I think the price is gone, well for me it is. If the top two defect, the field goes up 10lbs! Noble Prince is unlikely to turn up, trainer thinks it might come too soon.

Nulty

Actually, the top 8 look vulnerable if Poquelin wobbles. That would leave Mon Parrain on 11-10. I'm sure Nichols will convince Stewart to keep him in for the team.

Colonel Sanders

Nulty wrote: »

Noble Prince is unlikely to turn up, trainer thinks it might come too soon.

Haven't had time to look at this race in depth but Noble Prince would have to have a shout if he ran and the ground was safe. Looks like he goes for the John Durkan though before, hopefully, being stepped up in trip in the new year.

Ryanair is surely the target but I've had a few quid on for the Gold Cup at 150 on Betfair after Nolan said he'd like to step him up but only on good ground

baazzaa

To me it sounds like they dont fancy running in the John Durkan as its too close for them to having a run at Christmas.

What you think

"The John Durkan Memorial Chase at Punchestown (on December 11) is another alternative, but this year it is a week closer to Christmas which isn't ideal with a view to running in a Grade One then.
"Later than normal in previous years tightens up the schedule and if we wait for the John Durkan, we might be ruling out Christmas.

premierstone

Nulty wrote: »

I like Noble Alan and Quantitativeeasing for the race. It looks like the both of them will get the run. The shape of the race totally depends on whether Poquelin stays in as top weight. My understanding is that Wishful Thinking will come out if he's left with top weight. Mon Parrain is the favorite but I could never think about backing him as a 5yo at that price.

Segal is all over The Giant Bolster and I'm a big fan. I think the price is gone, well for me it is. If the top two defect, the field goes up 10lbs! Noble Prince is unlikely to turn up, trainer thinks it might come too soon.

I could'nt back The Giant Bolster tbh, he has only completed 2 of he's 5 chases and has failed to complete the course twice in Cheltenham, iunless he has improved he's jumping remarkably the pricewise induced price is shocking value tbh.

I actually like Mon Parrain and think he is the one horse in the field that could improve upto a stone over the season, the fact that Nicholl's horses are on fire at the moment helps aswell, and he has never won this race which im sure doesnt rest easy with him.

I seen those comments from Nolan re. Noble Prince but I see he has been well backed all week, this allied to the fact that Nolan wouldnt lie straight in bed makes me think ghe could turn up and if he did he would have a cracking chance.

kfallon

If Paul Nolan doesn't run Noble Prince on Saturday he must have rocks in his head!

Ground should be ok (def better than in a month's time), he has a fitness edge on a lot of his rivals, lovely racing weight, won round the course and I have already backed him at 12's :P

Seriously tho, does he want to run everything he has in the John Durkan cos he's already said Joncol is likely to run in that!

Goldcupfav

Fine Parchment e/w for me at 25/1

kksaints

Whats the maximum amount of runners for this? Mon Perrain is very short for this. Might see what price Wishfull Thinking is on the day. Also think that Billie Magern should run well probably wont win but might be placed. It ran very well last at Cheltenham admittedly in a much weaker race

meriwether

Mark Winstanley bigged up Wisfull Thinking today in the post, top weight or not.

Secretariat

Wishfull Thinking is one of my favourite chasers, hopefully he gets a run in this.

I took a shine to him when he lost to Reve de Sivola last December after being badly hampered, but his performance at Punchestown when giving 13lbs to Blazing Tempo was immaculate when he pinged every fence from the front.

Nulty

premierstone wrote: »

I could'nt back The Giant Bolster tbh, he has only completed 2 of he's 5 chases and has failed to complete the course twice in Cheltenham, iunless he has improved he's jumping remarkably the pricewise induced price is shocking value tbh.

I actually like Mon Parrain and think he is the one horse in the field that could improve upto a stone over the season, the fact that Nicholl's horses are on fire at the moment helps aswell, and he has never won this race which im sure doesnt rest easy with him.

I seen those comments from Nolan re. Noble Prince but I see he has been well backed all week, this allied to the fact that Nolan wouldnt lie straight in bed makes me think ghe could turn up and if he did he would have a cracking chance.

Find it hard to disagree with anything you've said here other than that so many strong 5yo fancies have failed in the PP over the last few years. It's a tough race, no matter how good the horse - especially for a very young horse. Long Run couldn't win it off 6lbs higher than Mon Parrain.

NaiveMelodies

Noble Prince entered at Navan on sunday so doesn't look like he'll be running. In fairness as Nulty pointed out, Nolan never said he'd defo be running in the PP.
Pity though as he'd have looked a nice shout for it.

I'd really fancy Wishful Thinking to get a place at least, so might go each way.

gudede

Secretariat wrote: »

Wishfull Thinking is one of my favourite chasers, hopefully he gets a run in this.

I took a shine to him when he lost to Reve de Sivola last December after being badly hampered, but his performance at Punchestown when giving 13lbs to Blazing Tempo was immaculate when he pinged every fence from the front.

I was there that day and me and my buddy couldn't believe he was carrying top weight because he was motoring so well, the weight won't be a problem and he his jumping is very good. I can't see him been out of the top four.

premierstone

premierstone wrote: »

I could'nt back The Giant Bolster tbh, he has only completed 2 of he's 5 chases and has failed to complete the course twice in Cheltenham, iunless he has improved he's jumping remarkably the pricewise induced price is shocking value tbh.

I actually like Mon Parrain and think he is the one horse in the field that could improve upto a stone over the season, the fact that Nicholl's horses are on fire at the moment helps aswell, and he has never won this race which im sure doesnt rest easy with him.

I seen those comments from Nolan re. Noble Prince but I see he has been well backed all week, this allied to the fact that Nolan wouldnt lie straight in bed makes me think ghe could turn up and if he did he would have a cracking chance.

Poquelin runs apparently, no official source just from someone I have good faith in, so this means that Noble Prince will most likely take he's place and has to be a serious contender. So Noble Prince and Mon Parrain against the field for me.

kfallon

McCoy was on RUK earlier pretty much saying he'll ride Noble Prince if he goes to Cheltenham on Saturday!

NaiveMelodies

He doesn't go, racing vs. Big Zeb in Navan on sunday. Pity

Colonel Sanders

Noble Prince swerves the PP according to the RP.

I'd have run him if he were mine, 11-2 if Poquelin runs which Andy Steward has indicated he will

Nulty

Good news for anyone who's had a bet on anything else in the race!

Mon Parrain is an appalling price. 20 runner handicap chase, a 5y, seasoned chasers, first trip to Cheltenham. I don't care if he hoses up by 10l, theres better "3/1 shots" than this every day of the week!

Racecaller

The 10-years trends for the race point to a highly rated horse aged 6 to 8 who is still unexposed in handicap company (http://tinyurl.com/bo3gddg):

Age (Win-Place-Runners)
5yo: 0-4-11
6yo: 3-4-27
7yo: 4-8-42
8yo: 2-5-40
9yo: 1-5-20
10yo+: 0-0-19
Horses aged 6 to 8 have won 9 of the last 10 runnings, though they have represented 64% of the total runners.
None of the 19 horses aged 10+ to run in past 10 years have made the places.

Weight (Win-Place-Runners)
Horses carrying 10-13 or more: 7-10-66
Horses carrying 10-12 or less: 3-16-93
Higher weights hold the call in this with 7 of the last 10 winners carrying 10-13 or more.
Top Weight: 94504FPP65 (0-1-10)

Official Ratings
Horses rated 146 or higher: 6-11-55
Horses rated 136 to 145: 4-7-73
Horses rated 135 or less: 0-8-31
6 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 146 or higher from approximately 34.6% of the total runners.

Recent/Past Form
7 of 10 winners had previously won at Cheltenham
10 of 10 winners had won a chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
10 of 10 winners had won a chase at class 2 or better
5 of 10 winners had won a listed or graded chase (3 of 5 exceptions were placed in a grade 1 hurdle)
5 of 10 winners were having their seasonal debut (other 5 had run once that season, 4 winning and 1 finished 2nd)
8 of 10 winners had run less than 10 times over fences
10 of 10 winners had run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (last 7 had run in 2 or less)
7 of 10 winners (last 5) were second season chasers (3 more experienced chasers had all won at grade 2 level)
7 of 10 winners had their last start at Cheltenham or Carlisle

Other Races
Carlisle Intermediate Chase winner (): 11 (2-0-2)
Zeturf.com Handicap Chase (Billie Magern): 1F43F28 (1-3-7)
Previous year’s December Gold Cup winner (Poquelin): 125 (1-1-3)
Centenary Novice H'cap Chase winner (Divers): 1F (1-0-2)
Betfred The Bonus King H'cap Chase winner (Hector's Choice): 4 (0-1-1)
Manifesto Novice Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 84 (0-1-2)
Silver Trophy Chase winner (Poquelin): 2P (0-1-2)
Previous November Novice Chase winner (Ghizao): 2U (0-1-2)
Grand Annual Chase winner (Oiseau De Nuit): 9 (0-0-1)
Murphy Group H'cap Chase winner (Wishfull Thinking): 470 (0-0-3)
Byrne Group Plate winner (Holmwood Legend): 477PP6 (0-0-6)
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in Steel Plate & Sections Novice Chase at previous year's meeting, finishing 31F
3 of 10 winners (3 of last 5) ran in the Colin Parker Memorial Intermediate Chase, finishing 211
2 of 10 winners (2 of last 4) ran in Jewson Novice H’cap Chase, finishing 16
2 of 10 winners ran in previous season's December Gold Cup, finishing 1F
7 of 10 winners ran in a chase at that year's Cheltenham Festival

Trainers
The Pipe stable (4-2-20) have accounted for 4 of the last 10 winners of the race but all 4 were under Martin Pipe’s tenure and David Pipe (0-1-8) has only had one placed finisher from 8 representatives.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (2-2-13) has been the trainer to follow in recent years, saddling the winner in 08 & 10 and filling one of the places in 07 & 09.
Nicky Henderson (1-4-12), Ferdy Murphy (1-1-6) and Jonjo O’Neill (1-1-7) have each saddled a winner and a placed finisher in the last 10 years.
Eddie O’Grady (1-0-2) trained Tranquil Sea to win in 2009.
Phillip Hobbs (0-4-7), Paul Nicholls (0-4-17) and Alan King (0-3-7) have all had multiple placed finishers since 2001
Irish based trainers (1-1-16) had a very poor recent record up until Tranquil Sea’s win in 2009, which was the first Irish success in the last since 1980.

Price
The favourite has a strong record in the race, winning this 5 times since 2000.
Favourites (4-3-10) have gained 4 wins and 3 places from 10 runners since 2001 and show a very healthy level stakes profit of 9.25.

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 8
• Carrying 10-13+
• Officially rated 146 or higher
• Having first or second run of the season
• Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
• Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
• Previously run less than 10 times over fences
• Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (ideally run in no more than 2)
• Second season chaser
• Trained in Great Britain
• Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson
• Favourite does well

hucklebuck

Save your statistical mumbo jumbo

Billie Magern all the way for me, well handicapped, improving, yard in form with course and race form and bound to have a decent young jockey on board 25/1.

Failing that, Pigeon Island for yard and course form at big price.

RichieLawlor

Poquelin is looking like a lamb to the slaughter for Mon Parain

NaiveMelodies

Racecaller wrote: »

Summary:
Based on trends from the past 10 years you are looking for a horse:
• Aged 6 to 8
• Carrying 10-13+
• Officially rated 146 or higher
• Having first or second run of the season
• Previously won a chase at Cheltenham
• Won a class 2 or better chase over 2M 4F to 2M 6F
• Previously run less than 10 times over fences
• Run in 6 or fewer handicap chases (ideally run in no more than 2)
• Second season chaser
• Trained in Great Britain
• Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies or Nicky Henderson
• Favourite does well

Wishful Thinking checks all those in bold as far as I can see! Instils confidence..

Nulty

The weight stat should be adjusted - Highest rated horse by a clear 6lbs is Poquelin this year. That stat could be adjusted by 2 or 3 pounds lower to account for the anomaly, i.e. 10-11 or 10-10 would be a reasonable expectation for the weight stat. Theres going to be at least 7 out of the handicap this time, around 3 or four more than the most of any other year

RichieLawlor

only1stevo wrote: »

Wishful Thinking checks all those in bold as far as I can see! Instils confidence..

He even checks on that you didn't bold

Colonel Sanders

Serious, serious novice chase tomorrow at Cheltenham.

Grand Crus, Cue Card, Champion Court, Zaynar and more.

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

Serious, serious novice chase tomorrow at Cheltenham.

Grand Crus, Cue Card, Champion Court, Zaynar and more.

Grand Crus is a strange one. I just got the feeling that he didn't get home at the Festival and Aintree. Alright that sounds stupid because he beat everything bar Big Bucks, but then again at Auteuil when he was definitely didn't get home but in fairness he was probably over the top.

Here's where I really went mad, I've had a few quid on him for the Arkle. (awaits flaming)

I wouldn't back Zaynar with counterfeit money. Think he's gone.

Cue Card needs to improve his jumping from the last day aswell.

Serious race though this early

UrbanSea

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/v5card009201111121435.htm

Final declarations for the PP.

Cue Card's form was franked though Richie.
I'm not so sure about the Arkle for Grand Crus. Doubt we'll see him over 2 miles.

RichieLawlor

UrbanSea wrote: »

http://www.irishracing.com/cards/v5card009201111121435.htm

Final declarations for the PP.

Cue Card's form was franked though Richie.
I'm not so sure about the Arkle for Grand Crus. Doubt we'll see him over 2 miles.

Cue Cards form may have been franked but if he jumps like he did the last day in the Arkle he won't get round

Yes Grand Crus is my first speculative bet this year. If Pipe says the Arkle is an option even I'll have a cracking trading opportunity

Goldcupfav

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Grand Crus is a strange one. I just got the feeling that he didn't get home at the Festival and Aintree. Alright that sounds stupid because he beat everything bar Big Bucks, but then again at Auteuil when he was definitely didn't get home but in fairness he was probably over the top.

Here's where I really went mad, I've had a few quid on him for the Arkle. (awaits flaming)

I wouldn't back Zaynar with counterfeit money. Think he's gone.

Cue Card needs to improve his jumping from the last day aswell.

Serious race though this early

Have to 100% agree with this. I really think that the staying hurdlers the last few years havent been that great (other than BB of course). And that Grands Crus was the best of an ordinary bunch. Tomorrows chase is over 2 and a half which should suit Grands Crus better. VC have betting up for it.
http://www.oddschecker.com/horse-racing-betting/ante-post-racing/national-hunt/steel-plate-and-sections-novices-chase
Think the 2/1 about Cue Card isnt a bad price has chase experience plus the form of his chase is holding up well with the two in behind winning since. Although giving GC 5 pounds wont be easy. Should be a great race. Also see Mullins has Uncle Junior entered in the cross country race. Was doing his best work at the finish in the Munster National could have a decent chance if he takes to that game.

Backstreet Moyes

Nulty wrote: »

Good news for anyone who's had a bet on anything else in the race!

Mon Parrain is an appalling price. 20 runner handicap chase, a 5y, seasoned chasers, first trip to Cheltenham. I don't care if he hoses up by 10l, theres better "3/1 shots" than this every day of the week!

His jumping was brilliant around Cheltenham last time and you need to jump well at Cheltenham. But he died a death when jumped the last in the lead last time out which is a worry. Add in the fact Nicholls never won the race and is mad to do so and his horses are flying. I think 3/1 now is very short but im happy enough with the 5/1 i got earlier this week. I may be mad but i might have a small nibble at him at 25/1 for the gold cup as i think Long Run is their for the taking.

UrbanSea

I think Homewood Legend is a cracking bet in the race each way at 40/1

premierstone

UrbanSea wrote: »

I think Homewood Legend is a cracking bet in the race each way at 40/1

Who??

Secretariat

Holmwood Legend, no need to be fretting over the odd spelling mistake premierstone.

premierstone

Ah I was only joking!, still though in all seriousness I wouldnt fancy this horse in the slightest, he looks very much exposed by the handicapper following last March's win and is a 10y/o, so not much room for improvement and 10 y/o's have a terrible record in this.

mdwexford

Grand Crus is a beast.

Really hope he takes to fences.

Nulty

Nuts102 wrote: »

His jumping was brilliant around Cheltenham last time and you need to jump well at Cheltenham. But he died a death when jumped the last in the lead last time out which is a worry. Add in the fact Nicholls never won the race and is mad to do so and his horses are flying. I think 3/1 now is very short but im happy enough with the 5/1 i got earlier this week. I may be mad but i might have a small nibble at him at 25/1 for the gold cup as i think Long Run is their for the taking.

Mon Parrain hasn't run at Cheltenham. He's had 2 runs, one at Sandown and the other in the Topham at Aintree.

premierstone

Nulty wrote: »

Mon Parrain hasn't run at Cheltenham. He's had 2 runs, one at Sandown and the other in the Topham at Aintree.

Correct, it was the run in Aintree Id imagine he was referring too.

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Correct, it was the run in Aintree Id imagine he was referring too.

I'd be more impressed with his jumping around Sandown that day tbh

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I'd be more impressed with his jumping around Sandown that day tbh

Ah yes sorry I misread he's original post and I was talking about him referring to the horse tying up. He does look a very good jumper, guess we just have to wait and see if he is another hype horse from the Nicholls yard or the real deal, I have a feeling it could be the latter, but may keep my wallet in my pocket and enjoy the race.

Backstreet Moyes

Ye got mixed up lads my main point trying to be he looks a very good jumper and you need to be to win at Cheltenham.

Nulty

premierstone wrote: »

Correct, it was the run in Aintree Id imagine he was referring too.

Imagine all the people....

Colonel Sanders

I might have a place only bet on Calgary Bay, trip is ideal & gets a huge swing in the weights from his January running against Wishful Thinking. Hard to see him being up to winning it though.

Timeform actually tipped Mon P at 33/1 for the Gold Cup in their 50 to follow. Must admit I'd want double that.

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I might have a place only bet on Calgary Bay, trip is ideal & gets a huge swing in the weights from his January running against Wishful Thinking. Hard to see him being up to winning it though.

Timeform actually tipped Mon P at 33/1 for the Gold Cup in their 50 to follow. Must admit I'd want double that.

He won't carry any of my money again after what he did to me at Aintree :mad:

hucklebuck

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Grand Crus is a strange one. I just got the feeling that he didn't get home at the Festival and Aintree. Alright that sounds stupid because he beat everything bar Big Bucks, but then again at Auteuil when he was definitely didn't get home but in fairness he was probably over the top.

Here's where I really went mad, I've had a few quid on him for the Arkle. (awaits flaming)

I can't figure him out, in the Cleeve the ground looked very tacky for good to soft and he sauntered home on the bridle yet on good ground in the World he seemed to find nothing when coming to challenge and then in aintree he bottomed out very quickly on good to soft. He is a quirky type, apparently he is nearly asleep at home.

I have backed him for the Arkle too and I stuck even more on him when I saw Scu has him in his 10 to follow, if that isn't a sign that he devouring fences at home I am not sure what is.

mdwexford

He's a 167 rated hurdler and his best horse, of course hes going to be in his ten to follow.

I wouldnt read too much into that.

hucklebuck

mdwexford wrote: »

He's a 167 rated hurdler and his best horse, of course hes going to be in his ten to follow.

I wouldnt read too much into that.

I don't agree, he is obviously working well to be stuck in. Colm Murphy doesn't have Big Zeb or Quito De La Roque in his.

mdwexford

hucklebuck wrote: »

mdwexford wrote: »

He's a 167 rated hurdler and his best horse, of course hes going to be in his ten to follow.

I wouldnt read too much into that.

I don't agree, he is obviously working well to be stuck in. Colm Murphy doesn't have Big Zeb or Quito De La Roque in his.

He might well be but he can't leave his best ride out of his ten to follow.

Murphy is clearly being a dope then, they are probably his two best horses as well.

prettyboy81

I have a fancy for Dave's Dream @ 12/1, don't ask me why just always back him & feel he is well in on the handicap n trip should suit him!

Big Daddy Cool

i'll be on Great Endeavor tomorrow, hope timmy times it better this time.

Goldcupfav

Seriously think Fine Parchment has a cracking e/w chance in the big one. Skybet going 5 places . anyone know if any other firms going 5 places ??

UrbanSea

PP,Boyles.Bet365 too.
VC going 4 places but a third odds