Polls closed, predictions before 9am tomorrow on who the winner will be...

legendary.xix

It's a tough one to call. Will there have been a big shift against Gallagher after the events of recent days?
While I have no time for Gallagher and don't have much mass in Higgins, I'll have to accept the majority will have gone for one or the other. If any of the bookies were giving me a free €10 bet on the likely winner, I'll have to say: Higgins.

[Jackass]

Yeah i was very worried Gallagher was going to get it, but hopefully Higgins will shade it.

darkman2

Higgins won't be close judging by the Tipperary North exit poll


Tipp North exit poll: Gallagher 35, Higgins 21, Mitchell 14, Davis 10, McGuinness 9, Norris 7, Dana 4. #aras11


If that is true, Gallagher has it in the bag.

nesf

Higgins on transfers from Norris mainly. Even if Gallagher tops the poll I have trouble seeing him getting the transfers.

ameliajane

I doubt it will be Dana who will be moving in to the aras anyway.

ameliajane

I hope her husband goes to Specsavers soon.

Blisterman

I find Paddy Power's odds to generally be the best predictor.

They had Higgins on 1/5 this morning and Gallagher at 3/1, McGuinness at 22/1.

So fairly confident of a Higgins win over there.

GetWithIt

darkman2 wrote: »

Higgins won't be close judging by the Tipperary North exit poll


Tipp North exit poll: Gallagher 35, Higgins 21, Mitchell 14, Davis 10, McGuinness 9, Norris 7, Dana 4. #aras11


If that is true, Gallagher has it in the bag.

Tipp North, Tipp North, now which way did they vote at the last election? Michael Lowry in on the first count.

Somehow I don't think Tipp North is a great barometer for the rest of the country.

bleg

darkman2 wrote: »

Higgins won't be close judging by the Tipperary North exit poll


Tipp North exit poll: Gallagher 35, Higgins 21, Mitchell 14, Davis 10, McGuinness 9, Norris 7, Dana 4. #aras11


If that is true, Gallagher has it in the bag.

Interestingly enough on the Newstalk poll, Gallagher had huge support in Tipperary, over 45% if I'm not mistaken.

MadsL

darkman2 wrote: »

Higgins won't be close judging by the Tipperary North exit poll

Tipp North exit poll: Gallagher 35, Higgins 21, Mitchell 14, Davis 10, McGuinness 9, Norris 7, Dana 4 #aras11


If that is true, Gallagher has it in the bag.

North Tipp loves a chancer, not nationally representive...

http://www.michaellowry.ie/about-michael/

Mr.Micro

GetWithIt wrote: »

Tipp North, Tipp North, now which way did they vote at the last election? Michael Lowry in on the first count.

Somehow I don't think Tipp North is a great barometer for the rest of the country.

They seem to like chancers down there.

LordSutch

Looks like a Gallagher win.

wow sierra

darkman2 wrote: »

Higgins won't be close judging by the Tipperary North exit poll


Tipp North exit poll: Gallagher 35, Higgins 21, Mitchell 14, Davis 10, McGuinness 9, Norris 7, Dana 4. #aras11


If that is true, Gallagher has it in the bag.

Tried to find the source for this on Twitter etc - can you let us know how we can source it?

gavmcg92

Would love to see a complete shift in the polls in favor of Higgins. Last week have proved that Gallagher does not cope under pressure and scrutiny.

darkman2

gavmcg92 wrote: »

Would love to see a complete shift in the polls in favor of Higgins. Last week have proved that Gallagher does not cope under pressure and scrutiny.

Judging by the the trembling hands of Higgins a week or two back on a debate I would say he has an even bigger problem with pressure - probably health related.

10green bottles

legendary.xix wrote: »

. If any of the bookies were giving me a free €10 bet on the likely winner, I'll have to say: Higgins.

WOW!! A massive €2 win for you(albeit free money):pac:

1st pref.
1. Higgins.
2.Marty McG.
3.Sean.g.
4.D.Norris.
5.G.Mitchell.
6.Dana.RS.
7.MAry.D.

Overall.

1.Higgins.
2.Sean.g.
3.Marty McG.
4.G.Mitchell.
5.D.Norris.
6.Dana.RS.
7.MAry.D.

Alibaba

I'd say Dana will have a surprise win..;)

pconn062

I would be hugely surprised if Higgins doesn't take it, anyone I've asked who they've voted for says the gave Higgins number 1. I will lose all faith if Gallagher gets it...

darkman2

darkman2 wrote: »

Higgins won't be close judging by the Tipperary North exit poll


Tipp North exit poll: Gallagher 35, Higgins 21, Mitchell 14, Davis 10, McGuinness 9, Norris 7, Dana 4. #aras11


If that is true, Gallagher has it in the bag.

Who commisioned this exit poll?

efb

MDH

LordSutch

Sounds like Gallagher is doing much better than expected round the country!

wow sierra

LordSutch wrote: »

Sounds like Gallagher is doing much better than expected round the country!

Source??

Crazy Horse 6

darkman2 wrote: »

Higgins won't be close judging by the Tipperary North exit poll


Tipp North exit poll: Gallagher 35, Higgins 21, Mitchell 14, Davis 10, McGuinness 9, Norris 7, Dana 4. #aras11


If that is true, Gallagher has it in the bag.

If that's true Gallagher is screwed. He would have needed to be polling 40%+ in a strong FF area like that. Good news for Micheal D as he'll hoover up the transfers.

Fergus_Nash

Has to be Higgins. Transfers from the other candidates, especially Norris like Nesf said, has to swing it in his favour. I'd guess that Gallagher will barely shade it on first preferences and then Higgins to get it after Norris is knocked after Dana, Mitchell and Davis.

Indulging myself now this is how the first preferences are going to go:

Gallagher - 29%
Higgins - 26%
McGuiness - 15%
Norris - 12%
Davis - 9%
Mitchell - 6%
Dana - 3%

Voter turnout around 50% due to a high number of students not being able to vote because of the day but it is heightened by the two referendums on the day too.

Sorry I'm a politics student so this is all fascinating to me.

ellinguistico

Higgins will win on first preference. Easily

wow sierra

darkman2 wrote: »

Higgins won't be close judging by the Tipperary North exit poll


Tipp North exit poll: Gallagher 35, Higgins 21, Mitchell 14, Davis 10, McGuinness 9, Norris 7, Dana 4. #aras11


If that is true, Gallagher has it in the bag.

A bit of poking around twitter and I found a request that this be removed as it is fake and a first tweet as aras11 @seangallagher1

I am not making this up You couldn't make it up.:D:D

tonycascarino

Prediction :
1 Higgins
2 Gallagher
3 McGuinness
4 Mitchell
5 Norris
6 Dana
7 Davis

Wallflower

wow sierra wrote: »

A bit of poking around twitter and I found a request that this be removed as it is fake and a first tweet as aras11 @seangallagher1

I am not making this up You couldn't make it up.:D:D

Thank God.

I am so exercised by this election - surely, surely the people to whom I belong would never vote such a spoofer/chancer/fraud to the Presidency.

Sunnyisland

Can we all be friends again now the election is over ?

seamus

Substantial lead for Higgins in the first count. Elected in the second or third. 3 way fight for 2nd place between MMG, SG and Norris.

the groutch

Fergus_Nash wrote: »

Voter turnout around 50% due to a high number of students not being able to vote because of the day but it is heightened by the two referendums on the day too.

or people being disillusioned by the lack of credible candidates

gavmcg92

tonycascarino wrote: »

Prediction :
1 Higgins
2 Gallagher
3 McGuinness
4 Mitchell
5 Norris
6 Dana
7 Davis

I agree except for Davis and Norris. I think that this is how it is going to play out.

1. Higgins
2. Gallagher
3. McGuinness
4. Norris
5. Mitchell
6. Davis
7. Dana

I think the main reason for the difference between my prediction and yours is all based around the frontline debate. I think Dana consistently not answering the questions posed to her and instead repeating the phrase "that is not important... the people of this country will be paying $1 billion dollars next week..." will result in her taking bottom.
Similarly I think Norris went into the frontline debate with nothing to lose. Had a storming performance which I feel will get him the forth spot over Mitchell.

Cicero

Fergus_Nash wrote: »

Indulging myself now this is how the first preferences are going to go:

Gallagher - 29%
Higgins - 26%
McGuiness - 15%
Norris - 12%
Davis - 9%
Mitchell - 6%
Dana - 3%


Sorry I'm a politics student so this is all fascinating to me.

Interesting prediction- you say the student vote would be down due to college day etc- I can see that to a degree (although many will have registered in their college home town- would that not mean then that the Gallagher vote would also be down? i.e. I'm linking Gallagher with a younger voting demographic- whats your view of this?

10green bottles

realies wrote: »

Can we all be friends again now the election is over ?

Will a Group hug do ya??
But that Lord Sutch or KeithAFC ain't gettin' no love here!! :mad:

LordSutch

Inhale, and relax . . . . . :rolleyes:

And Goodnight.

Sunnyisland

Vincent brown is on tv3 now, should be good.

gavmcg92

Cicero wrote: »

I'm linking Gallagher with a younger voting demographic- whats your view of this?

I'm not entirely sure of that ... Higgins and Norris were the two front runners closely followed by McGuinness in my college, in a poll that was carried out with a week before the election.

Cicero

gavmcg92 wrote: »

I'm not entirely sure of that ... Higgins and Norris were the two front runners closely followed by McGuinness in my college, in a poll that was carried out with a week before the election.

Thanks- I actually don't know one person who wanted to vote Gallagher...hence my reasoning that it was students (it's been a while since I was one:p).....

Wallflower

IrishCentral - Early exit poll

Higgins hot favourite if this is the case


Sean Gallagher 32
Michael D. HIggins 27
Martin McGuinness 20
Gay Mitchell 11
David Norris 6
Dana 2
Mary Davis 2

Read more: http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Live-minute-by-minute-coverage-of-Irelands-presidential-election-results-132713698.html#ixzz1c1VxasNR

Fergus_Nash

Cicero wrote: »

Interesting prediction- you say the student vote would be down due to college day etc- I can see that to a degree (although many will have registered in their college home town- would that not mean then that the Gallagher vote would also be down? i.e. I'm linking Gallagher with a younger voting demographic- whats your view of this?

That's a good point and I actually didn't take that into too much consideration but I still think this will happen. As other posters have said, and in my own politics tutorial, there has been a swing towards Higgins instead of Gallagher in the last week.

bleg

Wallflower wrote: »

IrishCentral - Early exit poll

Higgins hot favourite if this is the case


Sean Gallagher 32
Michael D. HIggins 27
Martin McGuinness 20
Gay Mitchell 11
David Norris 6
Dana 2
Mary Davis 2

Read more: http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Live-minute-by-minute-coverage-of-Irelands-presidential-election-results-132713698.html#ixzz1c1VxasNR

I saw this doing the rounds. No source as of yet.

Wallflower

bleg wrote: »

I saw this doing the rounds. No source as of yet.

Yep, its of interest, but I'm dubious about its worth to be honest.

hotmail.com

Wallflower wrote: »

IrishCentral - Early exit poll

Higgins hot favourite if this is the case


Sean Gallagher 32
Michael D. HIggins 27
Martin McGuinness 20
Gay Mitchell 11
David Norris 6
Dana 2
Mary Davis 2

Read more: http://www.irishcentral.com/news/Live-minute-by-minute-coverage-of-Irelands-presidential-election-results-132713698.html#ixzz1c1VxasNR

There's no detail attached to this, but anyway, if this is true, Higgins will probably shade it with transfers from Norris and Mitchell. It's going to be tight.

This exit poll, if accurate, shows that a certain loyalty crept in for Mitchell to save his blushes...but only slightly. Had he finished behind Norris, it would have been a crushing result Mitchell.

The poll also shows a larger than expected vote for McGuinness.

Jimoslimos

I'll stick with my original prediction on how the polls will play out, notwithstanding the fact that 2 or maybe 3 candidates may be eliminated on the first count.

Round 1:
Gallagher
Higgins
McGuinness
Norris
Mitchell
Davis
Dana

Round 2:
Gallagher
Higgins
McGuinness
Mitchell
Norris
Davis

Round 3:
Gallagher
Higgins
McGuinness
Mitchell
Norris

Round 4:
Higgins
Gallagher
McGuinness
Mitchell

Round 5:
Higgins
Gallagher
McGuinness

Round 6
Higgins - President Elect
Gallagher

The big surprise, I think Mitchell will outpoll Norris, maybe after the first round of transfers or even the first count - it will be close.

KeithAFC

LordSutch wrote: »

Looks like a Gallagher win.

In some ways it would be justice with the negative campaigning from a certain party towards Gallagher.

NIMAN

I'm gonna plump for Gallagher, because as a nation we can be very stupid at times.

hotmail.com

Jimoslimos wrote: »

I'll stick with my original prediction on how the polls will play out, notwithstanding the fact that 2 or maybe 3 candidates may be eliminated on the first count.



The big surprise, I think Mitchell will outpoll Norris, maybe after the first round of transfers or even the first count - it will be close.

I thought Norris had a good last week of the campaign, but I'd say there will be a strong FG loyalty that will ultimately put Mitchell above Norris. It also appears that there's a low turnout in Dublin where Norris might have got most of his support.

It's so hard to judge at the moment! I'm looking forward to the tallies.

cardwizzard

Looks like Higgins is getting fitted for a new suit. Battle for second between MMG, SG.

gizmo555

realies wrote: »

Can we all be friends again now the election is over ?

No!

Jimoslimos

hotmail.com wrote: »

I thought Norris had a good last week of the campaign, but I'd say there will be a strong FG loyalty that will ultimately put Mitchell above Norris. It also appears that there's a low turnout in Dublin where Norris might have got most of his support.

It's so hard to judge at the moment! I'm looking forward to the tallies.

I could be completely wrong, but for me Norris never appeared to canvass outside his safe Dublin area. I know its where most of his votes would eventually come from, but IMO he could have made a bigger effort to go rural - naiivety perhaps?

John The Bad

As a MDH voter I'm frightened. Never underestimate the Irish people's ability to elect a chancer. It's almost a belligerence; a reaction to damaging revelations of shooting the messenger instead. I couldn't understand Gallager's popularity in the first place. I'd never even heard of him before (perhaps that's because I don't own a telly). I won't be the least surprised to find out that Monday's Frontline will only have INCREASED Gallagher's vote. Remember how at first the revelations of Ahern's dodgy finances only resulted in an increase of his popularity while FG and Labour got hammered for attacking the people's beloved Bertie!

On top of that, Labour has no standing in rural Ireland and I think Higgins will struggle there.

Hopefully I'm wrong. Higgins is the odds-on favourite and that's something. It'll be close and maybe then Higgins can win on transfers.

Fingers crossed. Come on the people of Ireland, show us that you're suckers no longer.