Dublin West By-Election

MrJoeSoap

Hi guys,

As useless as it may turn out to be, I thought it might be at least interesting to run an exit poll here for the By-Election later today. Please only vote here if you voted in the election itself, and please pick your first preference vote.

Cheers! (poll now up)

Pepe LeFrits

Nice one. I intend on voting for O'Gorman but will hold off submitting here lest I get cold feet or hit by a bus before this evening...

MrJoeSoap

Pepe LeFrits wrote: »

Nice one. I intend on voting for O'Gorman but will hold off submitting here lest I get cold feet or hit by a bus before this evening...

You never know with this country, especially after what happened on Monday...

doubletrouble?

even as people make their way up to vote i'm still undecided on who to vote for in both elections. as for judges pay i'll be voting for them to take a cut and no on the other thing for jobs for the boys.

MrJoeSoap

doubletrouble? wrote: »

even as people make their way up to vote i'm still undecided on who to vote for in both elections. as for judges pay i'll be voting for them to take a cut and no on the other thing for jobs for the boys.

The problem with the two elections is that they are seriously over-crowded. 7 Presidential candidates (albeit only 2 or 3 real candidates depending on your viewpoint) and 13 for the by-election is crazy. Throw in two referendums and it's a serious case of information overload.

I honestly know nothing of half the by-election candidates.

athtrasna

The bye-election ballot is miles long...and lots of people with names early in the alphabet!

Usual issue with posters up at polling station. It's illegal to have them within 100m of the entrance to the grounds of the polling station. grrrrr

ronan45

Own up, who was messing by clicking on Barry Casear Hunt

MrJoeSoap

athtrasna wrote: »

The bye-election ballot is miles long...and lots of people with names early in the alphabet!

Usual issue with posters up at polling station. It's illegal to have them within 100m of the entrance to the grounds of the polling station. grrrrr

Which candidate and which polling station? Spill the beans!

hotmail.com

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

The problem with the two elections is that they are seriously over-crowded. 7 Presidential candidates (albeit only 2 or 3 real candidates depending on your viewpoint) and 13 for the by-election is crazy. Throw in two referendums and it's a serious case of information overload.

I honestly know nothing of half the by-election candidates.

There was 25 candidates in one constituency (Wicklow) at the last general election. It's called democracy.

MrJoeSoap

hotmail.com wrote: »

There was 25 candidates in one constituency (Wicklow) at the last general election. It's called democracy.

Yes and there were 10 in the last general election in Dublin West, 8 months ago. Where did the new 6 come from? I'm not questioning their right to run, I'm questioning why some of them bother.

athtrasna

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

Which candidate and which polling station? Spill the beans!

Most of them! Blanch Village (VEC)

oblivious

athtrasna wrote: »

The bye-election ballot is miles long...and lots of people with names early in the alphabet!

Many independents i have never heard of and what an a will a wicklow farmer or westmeath Fas employee offer Dublin 15 ?

oblivious

Barry Caesar Hunt had gotten two votes so far ! :eek:

MrJoeSoap

oblivious wrote: »

Barry Caesar Hunt had gotten two votes so far ! :eek:

Probably about as many as he'll get in the actual voting...

spooky donkey

well I have yet to vote as im still in work but I cast mine here. I think it should go to nulty as he only lost out last time by a hairs breath.

Yes hit the judges pay, not sure about the other thing.

Also Ill never again vote for an IND... anything. They could be fina failers in disguise......

MrJoeSoap

Whatever you think of yer man Caesar Hunt, he's definitely the first person I've seen who's tried to pull a 'Blue Steel' on a ballot paper.

MrJoeSoap

Zaph wrote: »

Plenty of them in Hartstown, but the ones that really annoyed me were the McGuinness ones that were so low on the lamppost that I couldn't see the traffic coming from my right without pulling out a lot further than I'd have liked.

If Sean Gallagher has proved anything with this election campaign, it is that you don't need posters to become a serious contender. Hopefully there is a proper review on the cards in the years to come.

The railings opposite the shops in Clonsilla village are just littered with posters, it's such an eye-sore.

tenandtracer

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

Whatever you think of yer man Caesar Hunt, he's definitely the first person I've seen who's tried to pull a 'Blue Steel' on a ballot paper.

That Caesar Hunt, so hot right now!

ThisRegard

athtrasna wrote: »

The bye-election ballot is miles long...and lots of people with names early in the alphabet!

Usual issue with posters up at polling station. It's illegal to have them within 100m of the entrance to the grounds of the polling station. grrrrr

The only one at my station was the Hunt, right at the entrance to the school.

Pepe LeFrits

Went for Roddy, Nulty #2.

athtrasna

Zaph wrote: »

Plenty of them in Hartstown, but the ones that really annoyed me were the McGuinness ones that were so low on the lamppost that I couldn't see the traffic coming from my right without pulling out a lot further than I'd have liked.

Which McGuinness? I reckon the FF one picked up some votes from people thinking it was Martin

Trend looks right, I think O'Gorman will pull the middle of the road protest votes, will be interesting!

Zaph

athtrasna wrote: »

Which McGuinness? I reckon the FF one picked up some votes from people thinking it was Martin

Sorry, should have clearer, David McGuinness.

MrJoeSoap

Strangely enough, O'Gorman is the highest priced candidate from any of the main parties on Betfair, at 21/1. Nulty leads the way at 1/2, with Coppinger second at just under 2/1.

athtrasna

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

Strangely enough, O'Gorman is the highest priced candidate from any of the main parties on Betfair, at 21/1. Nulty leads the way at 1/2, with Coppinger second at just under 2/1.

Interesting indeed. Don't think Coppinger will feature in the running at the end, Lenihan's personal vote will mobilise to stop that. I think it could be between Nulty & O'Gorman, with Loftus in third.

Pepe LeFrits

If O'Gorman was elected, would that make him leader of the Green party? :pac:

Godge

athtrasna wrote: »

Interesting indeed. Don't think Coppinger will feature in the running at the end, Lenihan's personal vote will mobilise to stop that. I think it could be between Nulty & O'Gorman, with Loftus in third.

Dream on, ain't going to happen.

Overall, Dublin West is slightly left of centre. That favours Nulty as he is the most likely of the two candidates (himself and Coppinger) to pick up second preferences from Loftus and I see him winning even if Coppinger is ahead on the first count.

The only fly in the ointment would be a strong performance by Loftus to put her out in front. If Nulty finished third, she might get enough second preferences from him to take the seat. Very unlikely to happen but 85% certain to be Nulty.

athtrasna

Tallies from Swords/Blanch show Nulty ahead, followed by McGuinness (who is just 0.1% ahead of Coppinger).

RT @suzybie: Nulty 26.9, Coppinger 21.3, Loftus 13.7, McGuinness 21.4, Donnelly 7.5, O'Gorman 4.7. Tally of 20% of boxes skewed to Swords/Blanch #dubw

athtrasna

From political journalist Maria Shannon

50% #dubw tallied: DMG 22%, EL 14.4%, PN 26.1%, ROG 5.3%, PD 7.5%, RC 20.3% Ind 4.4%

athtrasna

Latest tallies:

68% of #dubw tallied. Nulty 25.2, McGuinness 22%, Coppinger 20%, Loftus 14%, Donnelly 8% and O Gorman 5

godscop

athtrasna wrote: »

Latest tallies:

Thanks Athtrasna

athtrasna

From Philip Boucher Hayes of RTE

#dubwest 70% Tally - Lab: 25.2% FF: 22% SP: 20.1% SF: 8.2% Nulty's election agent told me he's "quietly confident"

How did we manage before Twitter?

godscop

athtrasna wrote: »

From Philip Boucher Hayes of RTE



How did we manage before Twitter?

This is the beauty of twitter, cant get anything in work though..lucky to even get boards.:mad:

ThisRegard

Coppinger won't be happy with these tallies so far, they have her 3rd behind a FF candidate, what a kick in the teeth for her if that remains the case.

athtrasna

ThisRegard wrote: »

Coppinger won't be happy with these tallies so far, they have her 3rd behind a FF candidate, what a kick in the teeth for her if that remains the case.

She won't be happy but I'll be ecstatic :D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D:D

ThisRegard

Well, I was trying not to gloat
But I'm wondering if the boxes where her base is have not yet been opened thus skewing the tally so far as the two far lefties are tallying poorly.

athtrasna

ThisRegard wrote: »

Well, I was trying not to gloat
But I'm wondering if the boxes where her base is have not yet been opened thus skewing the tally so far as the two far lefties are tallying poorly.

AFAIK only Castleknock remains...the SP strongholds have already been done

ThisRegard

Cool.

Latest tally live from John Kilrane at Citywest, 70% of boxes opened. Castleknock will probably go FGs way.
Lab 25, FF 22, SP 20, FG 15, SF 8

2 surprises for me, FF at 22 and SF only at 8.

athtrasna

All in

RT @msaoife: Final Tally #dubw Nulty 24.3 Coppinger 21 McGuinness 21.7 Donnelly 9 Loftus 14.8 O'Gorman 5 Oth 4.3

Transfers will be interesting....disappointed for O'Gorman, really thought he'd do better.

richardjjd

RTE's John Kilrane saying (see 11:52) that McGuinness is in with a chance. That would be a shock - with "left" candidates accounting for 60% of the vote, surely transfers would be friendlier to Nulty than FF?

ThisRegard

Yeah, can't see them go anywhere but Nulty.

Morag

100% Tally. Lab: 24.3% FF 21.7% SP: 21% FG 14.8% SF: 9% GP: 5% Turnout 49%

yosser hughes

Shame on the people of Dublin West who gave their first preference to a FF candidate.:( Bizarre in fact. What's the matter.

ThisRegard

It's a democracy, live with it.

MrJoeSoap

yosser hughes wrote: »

Shame on the people of Dublin West who gave their first preference to a FF candidate.:( Bizarre in fact. What's the matter.

The leftovers of the Lenihan dynasty. On the upside, it is looking like Dublin West won't be represented by FF for the first time in a long, long time.

athtrasna

athtrasna wrote: »

All in

Transfers will be interesting....disappointed for O'Gorman, really thought he'd do better.

Sharrow wrote: »

100% Tally. Lab: 24.3% FF 21.7% SP: 21% FG 14.8% SF: 9% GP: 5% Turnout 49%

Echo??

yosser hughes

ThisRegard wrote: »

It's a democracy, live with it.

Touché.:rolleyes: I am living with it and the utter mess FF have made of this country and 20 odd percent of people still vote for them! Clueless!
That's actually a failure of democracy.

richardjjd

SF continue to struggle in Dublin West - is it because there are a number of strong left candidates? Their performance over the last few general elections

1987 General Election 1.1%
1989 General Election 1.8%
1992 General Election 2.8%
1996 By-election 5.5%
1997 General Election 5.0%
2002 General Election 8.0%
2007 General Election 4.8%
2011 General Election 6.1%
2011 By-election 9.0% (tally estimate)

Today's jump to 9% was encouraging for them, its got to be put in the context of Higgins / Burton not competing for votes.

oblivious

MrJoeSoap wrote: »

The leftovers of the Lenihan dynasty. On the upside, it is looking like Dublin West won't be represented by FF for the first time in a long, long time.

Looks like Dublin is finaly FF free, we should celebrate with Bastille day type of celebrations

oblivious

ThisRegard wrote: »

It's a democracy, live with it.

Democracy is lovely, but should it really be left in the hands of the people

MrJoeSoap

oblivious wrote: »

Looks like Dublin is finaly FF free, we should celebrate with Bastille day type of celebrations

To the pub!

who_ru

FF still got 21% of the vote which i find incredible, i mean do these people actually support the loss of economic sovereignty and being run by the IMF?