Ones to watch-2012 National Hunt Season

UrbanSea

I liked Wayward Prince a lot as a novice last year.
Article in the RP says the Hennessy will be his target. Ignore his last run at Aintree,he had too much racing.


This year's Charlie Hall looks a good one.

Diamond Harry
Nacarat
Time for Rupert
Possibly Poquelin.

I really fancy Time for Rupert,no prices yet but I imagine Diamond Harry will be fav.


A novice hurdler I'm looking forward to seeing in Samain. Was a top bumper horse and fancied him for the Cheltenham bumper but he didn't go.

mountai

Really looking foreward to Solwhit coming out over fences.If he can jump as good as he hurdles, -- What a prospect !!!!!!!!

Frankie Lee

Ipsos De Berlais will make a top quality chaser in time, won his bumper impressively on Saturday.
Joncol will be of interest if he makes it over to Newbury for the Hennessy, potentially well handicapped if he gets his soft ground.

Frankie Lee

Frankie Lee wrote: »

Ipsos De Berlais will make a top quality chaser in time, won his bumper impressively on Saturday.
Joncol will be of interest if he makes it over to Newbury for the Hennessy, potentially well handicapped if he gets his soft ground.

Ipsos de Berlais runs tomorrow in a 2m6f maiden hurdle. Should be winning it.

Joncol won the listed chase too well at Thurles today. He may not go to Newbury now and if he does he won't be a huge price unfortunately.

klairondavis

Bishops Walk - second in a bumper last season for Timmy Hyde, now with Noel Meade and will run in the Magnier silks.

Quel Esprit - let down by his jumping last year but still very highly regarded. Was tanking along in the RSA when he came down at the third last. If they've sorted his jumping he could be a player in the big staying chases. Two entries at Clonmel next week - in the Morris Oil and a handicap hurdle.

Any know whatever became of Coole River? He beat Quel Esprit and Pittoni as a novice hurdler but wasn't seen at all last season.

meriwether

I think Quel Esprit is a good shout, he was let down by jumping last year. Same as Mikhael D'Haganeut, and Spirit River. All had undoubted quality over hurdles.

For me, I expect Hurricane Fly to dominate this side of the pond, and Spirit Son to do the same over the other side, until they meet in Cheltenham.

Of the hurdlers going over fences, the best of them is definitely Grands Crus.

Johner

Ipsos De Burlais looks a cracking prospect.

UrbanSea

I just looked,he won at 4/5. What a price,he was about 4/7 all morning

Johner

UrbanSea wrote: »

I just looked,he won at 4/5. What a price,he was about 4/7 all morning

I had him in a double with Lively Baron.

UrbanSea

Take it the baron lost?

UrbanSea

Aw a head.

FYL.

UrbanSea

Pedlers Cross goes in a beginners chase tomorrow at Bangor

Colonel Sanders

No Al Ferof alas, owner claims he doesn't want to run w/o Ruby in the plate

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

No Al Ferof alas, owner claims he doesn't want to run w/o Ruby in the plate

The same owner who gave Ruby the works over his Azertyiop ride a few years back and apparently has never seen eye to eye with him.

I'd say it's more Nicholls than Hales that wants to wait

Johner

Staying away from Peddlers this early.

UrbanSea

Projected SP of 8/1 on. Doubt it'd be that short but at that price is well worth a small lay.

premierstone

Anyone any idea what the plans are for Waaheb this year, with Chelthenian out for the season he could be the hype novice that picks up a few egg and spoon races , im thinking with regard to tote ten to follow here.

RichieLawlor

I miss the days of Noel Meade having the hype horse all winter, hacking up beating everything on the bridle.

NaiveMelodies

Actually on that point, Anyone heard of anything Pandorama related?
Meade never wanted him run in the Gold Cup with the ground If i remember rightly, but owners were insistent. Hope that run hasn't take its toll.

premierstone

only1stevo wrote: »

Actually on that point, Anyone heard of anything Pandorama related?
Meade never wanted him run in the Gold Cup with the ground If i remember rightly, but owners were insistent. Hope that run hasn't take its toll.

He's fine and will be out soon, wont ever see the horse in Chelthenham again id imagine, the festival will always have too firm ground for him and besides that the only two time the horse has ever finished out of the first 2 were the two times he travelled over to the UK, maybe like Beef or Salmon he doesnt handle the ground and the travelling, plenty of valuable chases in Ireland for him anyway.

NaiveMelodies

premierstone wrote: »

He's fine and will be out soon, wont ever see the horse in Chelthenham again id imagine, the festival will always have too firm ground for him and besides that the only two time the horse has ever finished out of the first 2 were the two times he travelled over to the UK, maybe like Beef or Salmon he doesnt handle the ground and the travelling, plenty of valuable chases in Ireland for him anyway.

Great to hear, thanks. I'd love too see him and Quito battle it out when both fully fit, I think it'd very evenly matched.

premierstone

only1stevo wrote: »

Great to hear, thanks. I'd love too see him and Quito battle it out when both fully fit, I think it'd very evenly matched.

Quito is the sleeper in the Gold Cup picture imo, jumps, travels, stays and most importantly has the big heart, if he needed the run saturday as much as Murphy would lead us to believe then he could really be the real deal.

mdwexford

Horse is slow compared to Long Run, not near the same league imo.

premierstone

mdwexford wrote: »

Horse is slow compared to Long Run, not near the same league imo.

I think Long Run is nailed on tbh if he gets there in one piece, but if there is to be one to come out of the pack and improve enough to be a challenger I just think Quito De la Roque is the one

premierstone

mdwexford wrote: »

Horse is slow compared to Long Run, not near the same league imo.

premierstone wrote: »

I think Long Run is nailed on tbh if he gets there in one piece, but if there is to be one to come out of the pack and improve enough to be a challenger I just think Quito De la Roque is the one

I see Quito has been given a rating of 169 following Saturdays win, taken into account that this time last year Long Run was rated 158 and that Quito will definitly improve not only for the run but as part of hes natural progression I think hte antepost prices are a steal and he will be my first antepost e/w bet for Chelt 2012.

Ahh this great to have proper racing back again!

UrbanSea

Sizing Europe not going for the King George

premierstone

UrbanSea wrote: »

Sizing Europe not going for the King George

My first thought when I heard this was ahh finally De Bromheaad has realised the horse just does not stay 3m, but then I relaised he will probably run him over 3m in a bog in Ireland instead, if the horse is ever going to stay 3m surely Kempton is the place?

UrbanSea

De Bromhead's reasoning is baffling to me.

He has the Champion Chaser yet he is trying to make him the top stayer.

It's like having a Nunthorpe winner and wanting him to run in the Derby. What's wrong with keeping him at two miles?

Is it him or the owner that's making this decision does anyone know?

RichieLawlor

UrbanSea wrote: »

De Bromhead's reasoning is baffling to me.

He has the Champion Chaser yet he is trying to make him the top stayer.

It's like having a Nunthorpe winner and wanting him to run in the Derby. What's wrong with keeping him at two miles?

Is it him or the owner that's making this decision does anyone know?

Its definitely Alan Potts imo

UrbanSea

I was thinking.

Cos if it were my horse and it were the trainer doing it,I'd have him out of the yard.

mdwexford

premierstone wrote: »

I see Quito has been given a rating of 169 following Saturdays win, taken into account that this time last year Long Run was rated 158 and that Quito will definitly improve not only for the run but as part of hes natural progression I think hte antepost prices are a steal and he will be my first antepost e/w bet for Chelt 2012.

Ahh this great to have proper racing back again!

I think the value has gone on the horse at this stage myself.
Still think he has a lot to prove and looks too slow to me.

Long Run always had the air of a world beater about him since his British debut though.

It sure is.

UrbanSea wrote: »

De Bromhead's reasoning is baffling to me.

He has the Champion Chaser yet he is trying to make him the top stayer.

It's like having a Nunthorpe winner and wanting him to run in the Derby. What's wrong with keeping him at two miles?

Is it him or the owner that's making this decision does anyone know?

Was saying that all last season.

You'd think after winning the Champion Chase they would have copped on this year but no they dont. Whoevers making the decisions is retarded.

UrbanSea

He needs a serious rethink.

I hope that he ends up at the Champion Chase and not the Gold Cup.

If he were to go for any other 3 miles bar the King George,surely the Aintree Bowl would be the other half suitable one. It's generally seriously weak for a grade one.

UrbanSea

There's a novice hurdle in the first tomorrow.
Could well be the race of the day,even if there are only four runners. The front two in the market look like very decent recruits to hurdling.


http://www.irishracing.com/cards/v5card083201111101255.htm

newuser89

Before last season was long run really hyped up and i taught burton port had a better season as a novice.
He also finished better at newbury i think and then got injured and hasnt been seen since.
If hes the same horse when back would it be beyond the realms of possibility that he is better than long run.
Just looking peoples opinions.

Secretariat

newuser89 wrote: »

Before last season was long run really hyped up and i taught burton port had a better season as a novice.
He also finished better at newbury i think and then got injured and hasnt been seen since.
If hes the same horse when back would it be beyond the realms of possibility that he is better than long run.
Just looking peoples opinions.

It wouldn't be beyond the realms of possibility but it would be close enough to it. You have to account for the fact that Long Run has improved since then and may have some scope for further improvement this season.

premierstone

newuser89 wrote: »

Before last season was long run really hyped up and i taught burton port had a better season as a novice.
He also finished better at newbury i think and then got injured and hasnt been seen since.
If hes the same horse when back would it be beyond the realms of possibility that he is better than long run.
Just looking peoples opinions.

The only time they have met was in the RSA 2010 and yes Burton Port nabed Long Run on the line for 2nd but of the two that day the only one of them that ever looked like having a chance of winning was Long Run, he made a very bad error I think 3 from home, maybe 4 and also the fact that Long Run was only a 5yo running over fences for the 3rd time and has improved immeasurably since.

I agree somewhat with your sentimnet that he is very much a forgotten horse, only Diamond Harry and Weapons Amnesty have ever beaten him over fences, but I do think he is a bit below the level required, will be interesting to see how he gets on on he's comeback though.

newuser89

Did long run not come 4th in the race burton port got injured last year when he came 2nd.
Im prob wrong

RichieLawlor

newuser89 wrote: »

Did long run not come 4th in the race burton port got injured last year when he came 2nd.
Im prob wrong

Long Run was 4th in the PP Gold Cup

Button Port was second in the Hennessy GC

premierstone

newuser89 wrote: »

Did long run not come 4th in the race burton port got injured last year when he came 2nd.
Im prob wrong

No, Long Run has never run in Newbury, Burton Port that day had Denman and about 4 or 5 other Nicholls horses behind him, Burton Port and Diamond Harry were well clear though. No idea who exactly was 4th but im prettyu sure it was a Nicholls horse.

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

No, Long Run has never run in Newbury, Burton Port that day had Denman and about 4 or 5 other Nicholls horses behind him, Burton Port and Diamond Harry were well clear though. No idea who exactly was 4th but im prettyu sure it was a Nicholls horse.

They were getting over 2 stone from Denman though, it was either a mental run from a declining Denman or Diamond Harry are nothing special.

I'm in the latter camp

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

They were getting over 2 stone from Denman though, it was either a mental run from a declining Denman or Diamond Harry are nothing special.

I'm in the latter camp

A bit of both really I think Richie, Denman was 14l back and 2 stone to Denman isnt as much as say 2 stone to long run, the horse is physically a beast and weight is'nt/was'nt as much of a burden as it would be for most horses, however 2 stone is an awful lot, but like newuser89 said there is abn arguement to be made that Burton Port could improve enough to be a contender, I think its a long shot myself but its not impossible.

RichieLawlor

I know what your saying that some horses are built for carrying weight and some are not. But it's bollocks btw.

Well Chief gave lumps of weight away when he smashed them in the VC and he wasn't anything like the physical beast Denman is.

Weights in handicaps reflect the horse rating and perceived ability. Which is why some horses are considered 'good things'.

Anyway my point is I don't think Diamond Harry and in particular Burton Port are top class.

premierstone

RichieLawlor wrote: »

I know what your saying that some horses are built for carrying weight and some are not. But it's bollocks btw.

Well Chief gave lumps of weight away when he smashed them in the VC and he wasn't anything like the physical beast Denman is.

Weights in handicaps reflect the horse rating and perceived ability. Which is why some horses are considered 'good things'.

Anyway my point is I don't think Diamond Harry and in particular Burton Port are top class.

Bollox in your opinion Richie, I happen to disagree :P

There are exceptions to every rule and Well Chief was on he's day an incredible 2miler, the fact you had to go back 7 years to find an example says it all really.

Weights in handicaps are based on previous performances and not on potential for improvement, otherwise if the handicapper did hes job correctly every handicap would finish in a blanket finish.

I agree with your ultimate point though, but I am just saying that it is not completely inconceivable that Burton Port could have the improvement in him to be top class, check out the posts from this and other forums this time last year and the scoffing and dismissing that the vast majority were doing re. Long Run.

mdwexford

The weight definitely affects some horses more than others imo.

DH and BP are very good horses, Long Run is in the top 3 three mile chasers ive seen since 1999 though. Can see him mangling fields this season.

RichieLawlor

premierstone wrote: »

Bollox in your opinion Richie, I happen to disagree :P

There are exceptions to every rule and Well Chief was on he's day an incredible 2miler, the fact you had to go back 7 years to find an example says it all really.

Weights in handicaps are based on previous performances and not on potential for improvement, otherwise if the handicapper did hes job correctly every handicap would finish in a blanket finish.

I agree with your ultimate point though, but I am just saying that it is not completely inconceivable that Burton Port could have the improvement in him to be top class, check out the posts from this and other forums this time last year and the scoffing and dismissing that the vast majority were doing re. Long Run.

I just picked Well Chief as a high profile example, Nacaarat is another in the RP Chase, but you see it day in day out in handicaps up and down the country.

RichieLawlor

mdwexford wrote: »

The weight definitely affects some horses more than others imo.

DH and BP are very good horses, Long Run is in the top 3 three mile chasers ive seen since 1999 though. Can see him mangling fields this season.

With Denman and Kauto Star?

mdwexford

RichieLawlor wrote: »

With Denman and Kauto Star?

Of course Richard.

Colonel Sanders

I'd certainly have Kauto in his prime ahead of Long Run thus far. While he's been visibly impressive and is only 6 I think both the King George & Gold Cup fields weren't vintage, he beat 2 11 year olds on the decline in the GC

I was always disappointed Looks Like Trouble & Nick Dundee suffered bad injuries. Until Kauto & Denman came along I thought LLT was potentially as good a staying chaser as I've seen in my time & when you consider how easily Nick Dundee appeared to be travelling when coming to grief in the 99 RSA (Williamson said he'd have won as he liked) he could've gone right to the top & been mentioned among the all time greats.

RichieLawlor

Colonel Sanders wrote: »

I'd certainly have Kauto in his prime ahead of Long Run thus far. While he's been visibly impressive and is only 6 I think both the King George & Gold Cup fields weren't vintage, he beat 2 11 year olds on the decline in the GC

I was always disappointed Looks Like Trouble & Nick Dundee suffered bad injuries. Until Kauto & Denman came along I thought LLT was potentially as good a staying chaser as I've seen in my time & when you consider how easily Nick Dundee appeared to be travelling when coming to grief in the 99 RSA (Williamson said he'd have won as he liked) he could've gone right to the top & been mentioned among the all time greats.

Although it was just before I started following racing a few people have they were disapointed that Monsignor never jumped a fence.

Denman could have the best staying chaser of modern time. The heart problem robbed him of his invincibility imo.

As it stands Kauto probably is.

gagatosh

Long Run for the Gold Cup again lads can't be beaten! And Hurricane Fly will NOT win the Champion Hurdle! Time for Rupert to beat Noble Prince in Cheltenham also

RichieLawlor

gagatosh wrote: »

Long Run for the Gold Cup again lads can't be beaten! And Hurricane Fly will NOT win the Champion Hurdle! Time for Rupert to beat Noble Prince in Cheltenham also

Love your reasoning. You must be right. I especially like the bit about a gold cup horse beating a Ryanair horse. Is this some kind of new race