Ireland move up FIFA Rankings

roryc

Actual rankings aren't released until next week, but I did a quick run through the numbers and we should be moving from 30th up to 25th.

Current Rankings

http://www.fifa.com/worldranking/rankingtable/index.html


New rankings (unconfirmed)



Interestingly we've moved above Turkey and Montenegro, two of our possible playoff opponents. Bosnia have jumped above Serbia too, and Sweden have made the biggest move from 25th up to 14th. Why couldn't they have done this before they were seeded for the WC draw!

Estonia are 58th.

IRISHSPORTSGUY

Norway must love this system, 24th and top seed for WC qualifying too.

ironbluedun

rankings are daft

steelcityblues

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Norway must love this system, 24th and top seed for WC qualifying too.

A country that hasn't qualified since Euro 2000, and won't this time around, got a #1 seed.

Meanwhile, their much stronger neighbours - Sweden and Denmark - were placed in the 2nd pot.

Great example of the ineptitude of FIFA.

roryc

There always seems to be a few odd ones but its good to keep an eye on them. If we get through to the Euros it should make our chances of qualification to tournaments after 2014 a bit easier, regardless of how well we do in the tournament.

Greece in the top 10 ahead of Argentina is laughable. Argentina would absolutely destroy them.

Mexico seem to have dropped down a good bit in recent years.

JerryHandbag

IRISHSPORTSGUY wrote: »

Norway must love this system, 24th and top seed for WC qualifying too.

They were 11th a few months ago. At least now their ranking is a bit more realistic.

homerjay2005

very strange the draw was so early for the next world cup, may have meant a big difference for some teams.

Dont be at yourself

Our WC group contains the 3rd, 14th and 25th ranked teams. I wonder is there a tougher European group, going by the average FIFA ranking?

ArmaniJeanss

roryc wrote: »

Greece in the top 10 ahead of Argentina is laughable. Argentina would absolutely destroy them.

I wouldn't disagree on a player for player basis, but I could understand why a sliderule mathematical system would think otherwise.

Argentina, scraped through in only 4th place in South America qualifying for the last World Cup.
Had a reasonable WC getting to the final 8.
Hosts in the Copa, won one game from 3 in the groups and then beaten in the quarters.

If that was the recent record of any team other than a starstudded Argentina then no-one would raise an eyebrow at their ranking being outside the Top10.

The_B_Man

So Spain are exactly twice as good as us?
Woulda thought it was more! :pac:

pablomakaveli

It would be better if the rankings were determined by competitive matches only rather than all matches including friendlies.

Would be interesting to see how the rankings would line up then.

ArmaniJeanss

pablomakaveli wrote: »

It would be better if the rankings were determined by competitive matches only rather than all matches including friendlies.

Would be interesting to see how the rankings would line up then.

It would close to impossible to do though, for example the 5 South American teams who didn't qualify for the World Cup (Columbia, Peru, Chile,++) didn't play a competitive game from October 2009 until the Copa in July 2011.
Even Argentina/Uruguay etc won't have played a competive game from July10 to July11.
The same applies to the top North American and Asian teams.

Its really only Europe and Africa who are consistently playing cycles of competitive qualifying games, so without friendlies the rankings for the rotw would be even less relevant/up-to-date than they are now.

roryc

As far as I remember from the exact ranking system, friendlies count for almost nothing.

The ranking points work off a long mathematical formula which takes into account a huge number of variables (goals scored, home/away, strength of team you played in comparison to your ranking etc), then this figure is multiplied by a number based on the importance of the game. Friendlies count for almost nothing, but can give you a small boost if you get a result against a much higher ranked team, like when we drew 0-0 with Brazil a while back.

As an example of how little you get for friendlies, Brazil won all their last three games and despite beating Mexico and Argentina they only got total of 12 points. Australia beat Malaysia 5-0 in a friendly and Oman 3-0 in a WC qualifier, and ended up losing 14 points. Had we beaten Russia in either of the recent games we would have taken a big jump up the rankings. Sweden got over 150 points for beating Finland and Holland in their last two games.

The system isn't perfect but it gives a good idea of where teams stand. If the WC draw was done now, after the qualifiers, we would almost certainly get an easier Group.

Bukman13

roryc wrote: »

As far as I remember from the exact ranking system, friendlies count for almost nothing.

The ranking points work off a long mathematical formula which takes into account a huge number of variables (goals scored, home/away, strength of team you played in comparison to your ranking etc), then this figure is multiplied by a number based on the importance of the game. Friendlies count for almost nothing, but can give you a small boost if you get a result against a much higher ranked team, like when we drew 0-0 with Brazil a while back.

As an example of how little you get for friendlies, Brazil won all their last three games and despite beating Mexico and Argentina they only got total of 12 points. Australia beat Malaysia 5-0 in a friendly and Oman 3-0 in a WC qualifier, and ended up losing 14 points. Had we beaten Russia in either of the recent games we would have taken a big jump up the rankings. Sweden got over 150 points for beating Finland and Holland in their last two games.

The system isn't perfect but it gives a good idea of where teams stand. If the WC draw was done now, after the qualifiers, we would almost certainly get an easier Group.

This is true, you get very few points for winning friendlies.

Our poor ranking has a lot to do with the FAI scheduling too many friendlies, we played 7 (friendlies) in the calender year leading up to the World Cup draw, which crippled our ranking as each game played is divided by the total points gained.

In fact had the FAI just cancelled one of the friendlies between either Argentina, Norway, or Uruguay we would have been in pot 2 rather than pot 3 for the WC.

_blank_

Bukman13 wrote: »

Our poor ranking has a lot to do with the FAI scheduling too many friendlies, we played 7 (friendlies) in the calender year leading up to the World Cup draw, which crippled our ranking as each game played is divided by the total points gained.

In fact had the FAI just cancelled one of the friendlies between either Argentina, Norway, or Uruguay we would have been in pot 2 rather than pot 3 for the WC.

Is this true :eek:

Bukman13

Des wrote: »

Is this true :eek:

Here are the Fifa rankings for june 2011 which was used to allocate pots.

1 Spain 1588
2 Netherlands 1542
3 Germany 1305
4 England 1146
5 Portugal 1076
6 Italy 1059
7 Croatia 1033
8 Norway 972
9 Greece 959

---

10 France 920
11 Montenegro 915
12 Russia 914
13 Sweden 884
14 Denmark 857
15 Slovenia 833
16 Turkey 820
17 Serbia 797
18 Slovakia 779

---

19 Switzerland 778
20 Israel 771
21 Republic of Ireland 752

By not playing just one of the listed games (Argentina, Norway, Uruguay) we would have gained 32pts, pushing us just ahead of Slovakia into pot 2.

roryc

F**king FAI.

Fr Tod Umptious

Bukman13 wrote: »

By not playing just one of the listed games (Argentina, Norway, Uruguay) we would have gained 32pts, pushing us just ahead of Slovakia into pot 2.

No real problem with us playing Argentina, good to get such a big footballing name on the opening night of the stadium

Not sure about Uruguay, they are a team we rarely play and it made a break from the usual hum drum

We could have done without playing Norway.

Did any of the Nation Cup games count, we could have done without all of them, or did the fact we won them help ?

Bukman13

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

No real problem with us playing Argentina, good to get such a big footballing name on the opening night of the stadium

Not sure about Uruguay, they are a team we rarely play and it made a break from the usual hum drum

We could have done without playing Norway.

Norway are actually one of the Countries that best optimizes its ranking by playing a low number a friendlies against high ranked but beatable opposition. It clearly paid off for them as they were in pot 1 for the WC draw.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Did any of the Nation Cup games count, we could have done without all of them, or did the fact we won them help ?

Good question.

Yes the nations cup games all counted but only as friendlies. Even though we won every game our ranking still suffered very slightly (approx 3pts).

Daemos

Shameless plug for the link in my sig, but Japan are the unofficial world champions having won the title a year ago from Argentina, and defended the title 14 times since then, including an unbeaten Asian Cup run, and an 8-0 victory over Tajikistan yesterday.

Makes much more sense than the FIFA rankings

homerjay2005

Bukman13 wrote: »

This is true, you get very few points for winning friendlies.

Our poor ranking has a lot to do with the FAI scheduling too many friendlies, we played 7 (friendlies) in the calender year leading up to the World Cup draw, which crippled our ranking as each game played is divided by the total points gained.

In fact had the FAI just cancelled one of the friendlies between either Argentina, Norway, or Uruguay we would have been in pot 2 rather than pot 3 for the WC.

Des wrote: »

Is this true :eek:

roryc wrote: »

F**king FAI.

hang on, hang on, most other teams would have the same amount of games as us, you will see very few teams idle on international nights, as they only have so many in a year to use.

any excuse to moan about the FAI..we play poor opposition and people say the games are s*it, we play 2 of the top teams in the world and people still complain..... these friendlies need to happen, a team needs to be built, a stadium needs to be payed for. the only extra games we would have got, were the 3 carling cup games and as we won all 3, i cant see that having a negative impact on our scores.

the reality is, our ranking has improved alot in 2011 and our friendlies have nothing to do us with being seeded outside pot 2, we had been around or outside the top 30 for a long long time.

the real damage was done in 2004-2008, it was then we moved to 3rd seats and we are only repairing that damage now. unless we have a poor run of results, we will be 2nd seeds in the next round.

Bukman13 wrote: »

By not playing just one of the listed games (Argentina, Norway, Uruguay) we would have gained 32pts, pushing us just ahead of Slovakia into pot 2.

do you not think the other teams can say the same? and those 3 games would not be the issue, we need to play teams classed above us, that is the only way we will improve, its the extra carling cup games we dont need, but i am sure they benifited us somehow.

the real reason slovakia are on a downward trend, is their results have been awful in 2011 and ours have been better, we are unbeaten in 9 games. the above analysis is all hearsay and therefore, nonsense.

Bukman13

homerjay2005 wrote: »

hang on, hang on, most other teams would have the same amount of games as us, you will see very few teams idle on international nights, as they only have so many in a year to use.

Number of friendlies that calender year;

Montenegro - 3
Norway - 5
Turkey - 3
Denmark - 4
Slovenia - 3
Slovakia - 4
Ireland - 7

homerjay2005 wrote: »

any excuse to moan about the FAI..we play poor opposition and people say the games are s*it, we play 2 of the top teams in the world and people still complain..... these friendlies need to happen, a team needs to be built, a stadium needs to be payed for. the only extra games we would have got, were the 3 carling cup games and as we won all 3, i cant see that having a negative impact on our scores.

The Carling Cup games did have a negative impact on our rankings (only slightly though)

homerjay2005 wrote: »

the reality is, our ranking has improved alot in 2011 and our friendlies have nothing to do us with being seeded outside pot 2, we had been around or outside the top 30 for a long long time.

the real damage was done in 2004-2008, it was then we moved to 3rd seats and we are only repairing that damage now. unless we have a poor run of results, we will be 2nd seeds in the next round.

The rankings are only calculated from the previous 4 years so at the time of the draw results from July 2007- June 2011 were used.

homerjay2005 wrote: »

do you not think the other teams can say the same? and those 3 games would not be the issue, we need to play teams classed above us, that is the only way we will improve, its the extra carling cup games we dont need, but i am sure they benifited us somehow.

the real reason slovakia are on a downward trend, is their results have been awful in 2011 and ours have been better, we are unbeaten in 9 games. the above analysis is all hearsay and therefore, nonsense.

How is it Hearsay the figures are clear and anyone can work them out, the fact is we played at least two more friendlies than most of the teams around us that means our total points accumulated for that year were being divided by a much higher number than a the teams around us.

LiamMc

I think supporters should take a look at the way the long list is calculated and not at one individual National Association.

Any changes or gaps in the method of calculation can be forwarded to NA's so they have a chance to bring it once again to the attention of Zurich

1. Comparing teams that never are very rarely play each other.
2. Original favourable weighting of teams from UEFA and CONMEBOL an outrageous presumption. This gave those favoured teams more points for results than teams outside these two juristrictions.
3. Experimental use of "the list" to seed sides in FIFA World Cuptm qualifiers in lesser Confederations, especially CAF.
4. Rots your teeth.

tolosenc

homerjay2005 wrote: »

hang on, hang on, most other teams would have the same amount of games as us, you will see very few teams idle on international nights, as they only have so many in a year to use.

Well, Montenegro managed their ranking by doing just that.

With hindsight it's easy to say that had we not played Norway, we'd have been in pot 2, as it could be a case of "had we not played those 11 friendlies over the last 3 years..."

Though one is more rational and maybe a bit of forethought from the FAI would have helped.

homerjay2005

tolosenc wrote: »

Though one is more rational and maybe a bit of forethought from the FAI would have helped.

so they knew we were going to lose them? we lost all 3 by one goal. if we won the games, we would have been in pot 2, if we didnt play them, we were in pot 2.

the problem was the carling cup, not those 3 games.

dsmythy

What's it matter anyway. Could still have ended up with the same group even if we did bump above Slovakia

noodler

FAI has a stadium to pay for.

jester77

noodler wrote: »

FAI has a stadium to pay for.

Very interesting reading here. While the FAI has a stadium to pay for, they seem a bit short sighted by trying to get the money now instead of planning for further down the line. Playing the system like Norway seems to have would have left us with a more favorable qualifying group with a higher chance of qualification and a potentially better income to pay off the stadium further down the road.

Cypher_sounds

jester77 wrote: »

Very interesting reading here. While the FAI has a stadium to pay for, they seem a bit short sighted by trying to get the money now instead of planning for further down the line. Playing the system like Norway seems to have would have left us with a more favorable qualifying group with a higher chance of qualification and a potentially better income to pay off the stadium further down the road.

Delaney probably gets a pay rise for getting some money in sooner, or else he can only see as far as his nose.

noodler

jester77 wrote: »

Very interesting reading here. While the FAI has a stadium to pay for, they seem a bit short sighted by trying to get the money now instead of planning for further down the line. Playing the system like Norway seems to have would have left us with a more favorable qualifying group with a higher chance of qualification and a potentially better income to pay off the stadium further down the road.

I honestly don't think we are (or were recently) in a position to demand friendlies from anybody. There are obviously timing commitments as well.

I really think it is reaching a bit to expect the FAI to forego revenues (or a decent test/watch) for the offchance it will have a major bearing on coefficients somewhere down the line.

I completely understand your long-term argument though - it seems they need all the money they can get at the momenti

roryc

The win last night was a great result for us in the rankings. Ireland will move from 812 points (25th) up to 878, which should be good for 20th, ahead of Norway, Mexico and Serbia. Bosnia will also make a slight jump up to 19th on 888 points after their 0-0 draw against Portugal. All the other games are friendlies so shouldn't see much jumps outside of the 8 teams in the play-offs.

As much as a lot of people ignore the rankings, they can be crucial in terms of seeding. A win on Tuesday should bring us up to about 914 points which depending on the Bosnia result should be good for 19th position. It will also open up a gap between us and the likes of Australia, Mexico etc. We need to try and solidify a top 20 position for future seeding draws.

To show the difference between competitive and friendly - a win on Tuesday would mean us gaining about 100 points (total) for beating a team ranked 59th in the world. Switzerland drew away from home yesterday against Holland. World cup finalists and ranked 2nd in the world. Switzerland will get 3 ranking points from this game...

The next FIFA rankings update will be done on November 23rd.

roryc

Last night's result should see Ireland drop from 893 to 872 points, but we'll actually move above Bosnia to 19th after they lost at home to Brazil. Switzerland will drop back to 18th on 891 points after losing to Argentina.

A gap has opened then to Sweden (927) and France (938), but good news for us as we hit our highest position in the rankings since August 2005 when we ended our three year spell of hovering around 14th spot.