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Who is going to win the presidency?

  • 06-10-2011 9:55pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭


    Who do you think is going to win the presidency.Dont let the polls influence you.As in some i seen martin winning others Gallagher and Higgins.
    It is quite obvious the others are out of the race.
    Again not who you want to win but who will win? And lets see who is right :)

    Mods could i please have a poll as i cant make one,thanks :)


«1

Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    How would polls influence anyone ? If they do then they don't deserve a vote!

    Am hoping it's Michael D, with Gay Mitchell a runner-up option due to a dodgy letter there too.

    The rest of the field would have me boycotting the election completely due to the lack of even a "least objectionable" option.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,373 ✭✭✭✭foggy_lad


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    How would polls influence anyone ? If they do then they don't deserve a vote!

    Am hoping it's Michael D, with Gay Mitchell a runner-up option due to a dodgy letter there too.

    The rest of the field would have me boycotting the election completely due to the lack of even a "least objectionable" option.
    I think Michael D will win comfortably with possibly Gallagher in 2nd and Gay Mitchell 3rd.

    I dont see McGuinness getting any serious votes outside of the three northern counties and for some odd reason Cork, and he will lose out in Donegal to Dana


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    How would polls influence anyone ? If they do then they don't deserve a vote!

    Am hoping it's Michael D, with Gay Mitchell a runner-up option due to a dodgy letter there too.

    The rest of the field would have me boycotting the election completely due to the lack of even a "least objectionable" option.

    Gay Mitchell are you serious?
    I agree anyone who lets polls media or other influence then they dont deserve to be voting at all.

    I asked who do you think will win not who you hope will.:)

    Boycott against the wishes of the majority.
    I take it you voted FG or labour then since you didn't boycott the elections past.Very democratic of you since people who didn't vote the twats in government now didn't boycott your vote,and respected the outcome.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    michael d higgins will probally win

    hes the best of the 7 canidates

    the 27th will tell all :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 9,183 ✭✭✭dvpower


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    How would polls influence anyone ? If they do then they don't deserve a vote!.
    I don't think the suggestion was that the polls would influence anyones vote, but they would influence someones prediction (which is probably inevitable).

    Higgins seems to have it. I've yet to meet anyone who actively dislikes him, so he will pick up transfers from everywhere. He's been in politics fir a long long time, so there might be a knockout scandal out there somewhere.
    As we all know, things can change dramatically over a few weeks.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    dvpower wrote: »
    I don't think the suggestion was that the polls would influence anyones vote, but they would influence someones prediction (which is probably inevitable).

    Higgins seems to have it. I've yet to meet anyone who actively dislikes him, so he will pick up transfers from everywhere. He's been in politics fir a long long time, so there might be a knockout scandal out there somewhere.
    As we all know, things can change dramatically over a few weeks.


    Thanks i thought he knew what i meant about the polls.


    It does indeed as we have seen with Norris and Mitchell.
    That is why i think open floor still.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    caseyann wrote: »

    Gay Mitchell are you serious?

    For 2nd place ? Absolutely.
    caseyann wrote: »
    I agree anyone who lets polls media or other influence then they dont deserve to be voting at all.

    Common sense really. You vote for whoever is best/least worst, and where they are in a poll is irrelevant.
    caseyann wrote: »
    I asked who do you think will win not who you hope will.:)

    Pretty much the same answer, although there is a chance that the FF muppet will sneak in there in second.
    caseyann wrote: »
    Boycott against the wishes of the majority.

    Do you know what boycott means ? It means opt out of participating. Although I will be disgusted if either Norris or McGuinness get elected to represent my country since they don't - and don't want to - represent me. If either of those get elected I will refuse to accept them and will avoid watching any event at which they are present.
    caseyann wrote: »
    I take it you voted FG or labour then since you didn't boycott the elections past.Very democratic of you since people who didn't vote the twats in government now didn't boycott your vote,and respected the outcome.

    FG, Labour & Independent - the 3 options available who didn't act to ruin our country.

    Given FG & Labour's refusal to represent me since being elected, I could well be boycotting the next general election too; there is almost no hope and no respect in this country, with even Shane Ross falling from grace since his election to some extent.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    For 2nd place ? Absolutely.



    Common sense really. You vote for whoever is best/least worst, and where they are in a poll is irrelevant.



    Pretty much the same answer, although there is a chance that the FF muppet will sneak in there in second.



    Do you know what boycott means ? It means opt out of participating. Although I will be disgusted if either Norris or McGuinness get elected to represent my country since they don't - and don't want to - represent me. If either of those get elected I will refuse to accept them and will avoid watching any event at which they are present.



    FG, Labour & Independent - the 3 options available who didn't act to ruin our country.

    Given FG & Labour's refusal to represent me since being elected, I could well be boycotting the next general election too; there is almost no hope and no respect in this country, with even Shane Ross falling from grace since his election to some extent.


    Sorry i misread you about the boycott thing.

    And to the rest FG and labour not having a hand in it and watch it happen.You are blind.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    caseyann wrote: »

    And to the rest FG and labour not having a hand in it and watch it happen.You are blind.

    Interesting. McG's supporters go ape**** and demand proof and retractions when people make claims about what he had a hand in - am I allowed do likewise ?

    Or can I likewise say that you are blind re McG ?

    Anyway, the point is that I won't be voting FG & Labour again. That - like this election - will leave me with almost no suitable options, although I might try running myself the way things are going.

    But this is about the presidential election, not the years-away general election.

    So about those parallel issues re blindness....


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,686 ✭✭✭✭Zubeneschamali


    Michael D. will be elected to the presidency, but Sinn Féin will be the real winners, replacing the dying Fianna Fáil as the real Opposition party.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,235 ✭✭✭lugha


    At this stage you would have to say it is Michael D.'s to lose. Unless someone finds a cupboard with a few bones rattling about inside. :pac:

    I would have preferred Norris, though lettergate might have tarnished the office.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,930 ✭✭✭COYW


    I still think the FGers will vote for Mitchell when push comes to shove at the election booth and he will fare better than the current polls are showing. Michael D. will win on transfers and Sean Gallagher will just fall short in the end. MMG will get his core SF vote and a little extra of the FF republican vote but he will fall away on transfers.

    The final finishing order will be :

    1) Michael D.
    2) Gallagher
    3) Mitchell
    4) McGuinness
    5) Norris
    6) Davis
    7) Dana


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,235 ✭✭✭lugha


    COYW wrote: »
    I still think the FGers will vote for Mitchell when push comes to shove at the election booth and he will fare better than the current polls are showing. Michael D. will win on transfers and Sean Gallagher will just fall short in the end. MMG will get his core SF vote and a little extra of the FF republican vote but he will fall away on transfers.
    I think you are probably right about Mitchell. But isn't there some poll (quoted in RTE news last night) that said MMG is only picking up 11% of the FF vote?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,930 ✭✭✭COYW


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    Interesting. McG's supporters go ape**** and demand proof and retractions when people make claims about what he had a hand in - am I allowed do likewise?

    Now Liam, have you not learned that SF and it's supporters are beyond questioning by now!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,930 ✭✭✭COYW


    lugha wrote: »
    I think you are probably right about Mitchell. But isn't there some poll (quoted in RTE news last night) that said MMG is only picking up 11% of the FF vote?

    Well that is all of the FF vote then or a very high percentage of it. I am surprised that they are not going to Gallagher myself considering his links with them. It is something Gallagher has to work on, if he wants to win. Those FF votes could be the difference for him. He does need to thread carefully though due to his links with the party.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 106 ✭✭pubview


    It certainly is Michael D's to lose now.

    I was going to vote for him anyway before there were any Polls or scandals. Why ? Well, I like a quiet life myself and I think that's what the country needs and deserves as well now for a while after all the upheavals in the political, economic and religious sectors.

    On that basis, Michael D is the least objectionable of all the potential presidents. He'll do the job quietly and without fuss and attention-seeking. Sure, we'll have to put up with the occasional burst of poetry and longwindedness but I reckon we can live with that.

    I don't think we want any skeletons falling out of the Aras closets during the next term of office and for that reason I instantly dismissed both McGuinness and Norris; they are liabilities.

    Dana is a joke and represents the past so that's her out of my consideration.

    I simply cannot - with the best will in the world - 'take to' Mitchell. Too full of himself, too strident, and too 'Dub'. (Apologies to all Dubs here.)

    Davis and Gallagher ? Either could probably muddle through the requirements of the job and I concede that Gallagher has impressed as the campaign went along. Even given his FF gene poolness, I wouldn't be bothered if he made it. Davis - again, I risk upsetting people by saying that I've had enough of 2 women presidents and another one insisting how great she is would do my wee head in. I think it's time the lads got a go again.

    So, Higgins for me but I wouldn't be bothered if Gallagher nicked it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    Michael D. will be elected to the presidency, but Sinn Féin will be the real winners, replacing the dying Fianna Fáil as the real Opposition party.

    not worried or even care what percentage sf get ,they wont be in government for long long time,dont mind then as i wont be around and by then the bad apples in the party will wont be around either, but they need to learn alot before that happens as their politics at moment wouldn't help Ireland in the world or its people


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    COYW wrote: »
    Well that is all of the FF vote then or a very high percentage of it. I am surprised that they are not going to Gallagher myself considering his links with them. It is something Gallagher has to work on, if he wants to win. Those FF votes could be the difference for him. He does need to thread carefully though due to his links with the party.

    think ff supporters like Michael d better as president ,as he be the face of the state


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    COYW wrote: »
    I still think the FGers will vote for Mitchell when push comes to shove at the election booth and he will fare better than the current polls are showing. Michael D. will win on transfers and Sean Gallagher will just fall short in the end. MMG will get his core SF vote and a little extra of the FF republican vote but he will fall away on transfers.

    The final finishing order will be :

    1) Michael D.
    2) Gallagher
    3) Mitchell
    4) McGuinness
    5) Norris
    6) Davis
    7) Dana

    think most ff supporters will support michael d and sean g ,the rest wont bother voting as not happy with party,voting mmg wont happen
    mmg will come either third or forth but i say third


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,309 ✭✭✭✭alastair


    As it's always been likely, Michael D will win. I'll be giving Norris my No 1. The interesting battle will be for second place.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    think there was more hip over this election than the general election or much the same


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    Liam Byrne wrote: »
    Interesting. McG's supporters go ape**** and demand proof and retractions when people make claims about what he had a hand in - am I allowed do likewise ?

    Or can I likewise say that you are blind re McG ?

    Anyway, the point is that I won't be voting FG & Labour again. That - like this election - will leave me with almost no suitable options, although I might try running myself the way things are going.

    But this is about the presidential election, not the years-away general election.

    So about those parallel issues re blindness....

    Funny i dont believe i went ape **** and said sorry for misunderstanding about the boycott thing.The relevance of people going ape**** about things being said about Martin or SF.And i dont believe it is relevant to what i said or the thread.

    I am not blind to anything.I havent seen any proof of anything directed at Martin.But proof was in pudding for FG and labour were voting and had all the knowledge of what was happening here and only started giving out when they were caught.Otherwise they turned a blind eye so long as they got their fat wage and expenses.

    Anyway back to the subject.
    I predict Martin will take a whopping leap and become president of Ireland :)

    And it is between him and Mickey D,although i hate saying it Mickey D is very old and looking very frail and i would think he might not be strong enough to last the full term.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,748 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    i'd say michael d will have it, though i agree it'll be between him and mmg.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    caseyann wrote: »
    Funny i dont believe i went ape **** and said sorry for misunderstanding about the boycott thing.The relevance of people going ape**** about things being said about Martin or SF.And i dont believe it is relevant to what i said or the thread.

    I am not blind to anything.I havent seen any proof of anything directed at Martin.But proof was in pudding for FG and labour were voting and had all the knowledge of what was happening here and only started giving out when they were caught.Otherwise they turned a blind eye so long as they got their fat wage and expenses.

    Anyway back to the subject.
    I predict Martin will take a whopping leap and become president of Ireland :)

    And it is between him and Mickey D,although i hate saying it Mickey D is very old and looking very frail and i would think he might not be strong enough to last the full term.
    disagree
    Michael d will win
    Sean Gallagher will be second and a tossup for third spot
    people need someone they can trust and relay on
    martin ain't it
    Michael d will win unless there's something comes into media but don't think so,he's straight talking and know what president is about and what's required of him
    sean Gallagher smart guy with good business head ,some say its needed ,some say its not
    martin mg= he here for sein fein reasons,and people just don't believe he has state of Ireland as he's best interest,he's only interest is northern Ireland and shaking up things in southern Ireland so they get more votes in next general election ,mostly can't be trusted , there's more but its all over the web and tv/radio about him for past 30 something years

    for me outside the candidates ,it has been a poor choice of candidates ,be better if president mary mcaleese stayed on but she can't,,so we stuck with this lot

    so the party spin supporters will say what they say on forums but don't forget
    PEOPLE ALREADY HAVE MADE UP THERE MINDS WHO TO VOTE FOR,SO SPIN AWAY TILL VOTING DAY


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 106 ✭✭pubview


    it has been a poor choice of candidates

    Oh, I don't know. Look at all the dirt that's been uncovered on these 'poor' candidates already and there's still 3 weeks to go.

    Think what we might have dug up if there'd been 'interesting' candidates on offer.

    I'm enjoying the election and the craic as each new day reveals something someone would prefer to have stayed in the closet.

    Can't we have an election every week please ? :)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    disagree
    Michael d will win
    Sean Gallagher will be second and a tossup for third spot
    people need someone they can trust and relay on
    martin ain't it
    Michael d will win unless there's something comes into media but don't think so,he's straight talking and know what president is about and what's required of him
    sean Gallagher smart guy with good business head ,some say its needed ,some say its not
    martin mg= he here for sein fein reasons,and people just don't believe he has state of Ireland as he's best interest,he's only interest is northern Ireland and shaking up things in southern Ireland so they get more votes in next general election ,mostly can't be trusted , there's more but its all over the web and tv/radio about him for past 30 something years

    for me outside the candidates ,it has been a poor choice of candidates ,be better if president mary mcaleese stayed on but she can't,,so we stuck with this lot

    so the party spin supporters will say what they say on forums but don't forget
    PEOPLE ALREADY HAVE MADE UP THERE MINDS WHO TO VOTE FOR,SO SPIN AWAY TILL VOTING DAY


    People havent already made up their mind who to vote for.In a lot of polls there is alot who are still saying dont know.So the next weeks will see changes up and down.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    caseyann wrote: »
    People havent already made up their mind who to vote for.In a lot of polls there is alot who are still saying dont know.So the next weeks will see changes up and down.

    18% dont know who there voting for and getting smaller,don't think any candidates will surprise voters,all that happen some will lose few points and others will gain but red c will be probably the closest to being right


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    pubview wrote: »
    Oh, I don't know. Look at all the dirt that's been uncovered on these 'poor' candidates already and there's still 3 weeks to go.

    Think what we might have dug up if there'd been 'interesting' candidates on offer.

    I'm enjoying the election and the craic as each new day reveals something someone would prefer to have stayed in the closet.

    Can't we have an election every week please ? :)

    like a soap tv show some times or father ted show :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    caseyann wrote: »
    Funny i dont believe i went ape **** and said sorry for misunderstanding about the boycott thing.The relevance of people going ape**** about things being said about Martin or SF.And i dont believe it is relevant to what i said or the thread.

    I didn't necessarily single you out. There are plenty of examples on here with people demanding proof that a known terrorist committed crimes, and yet they fire off accusations at FG & Labour with no such reservations.
    caseyann wrote: »
    I am not blind to anything.I havent seen any proof of anything directed at Martin.But proof was in pudding for FG and labour were voting and had all the knowledge of what was happening here and only started giving out when they were caught.Otherwise they turned a blind eye so long as they got their fat wage and expenses.

    And that's exactly what I am taking about; what makes you claim that they "had all the knowledge", while refusing to accept that McGuinness "had all the knowledge" of the IRA murders ?
    caseyann wrote: »
    I predict Martin will take a whopping leap and become president of Ireland :)

    Hopefully not, but you're entitled to your view. Bear in mind that it's the "president of the Republic of Ireland", though.
    caseyann wrote: »
    And it is between him and Mickey D,although i hate saying it Mickey D is very old and looking very frail and i would think he might not be strong enough to last the full term.

    Old & frail ? I don't think you "hate saying it", to be honest, because it's not true and that strikes me as just an attempt at casting doubt over the suitability of the main competitor.

    Even if it were true, give me "old & frail" over "former terrorist who condones/condoned murder and refers to a state as if it were just an arbitrary group of counties" any day. In fact, if that was to happen in 2 or 3 years time, maybe we'd actually get a few candidates that were actually worth voting for.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    18% dont know who there voting for and getting smaller,don't think any candidates will surprise voters,all that happen some will lose few points and others will gain but red c will be probably the closest to being right

    Labour candidate, Michael D Higgins came out on top of the Ispos MRBI poll, which was carried out by the Irish Times, with 23 per cent support. The poll was carried about among 1,000 voters in every constituency in the 26 counties.

    Independent candidate and entrepreneur, Séan Gallagher, was the second most popular candidate on 20 per cent, with Mr McGuinness a close third on 19 per cent.

    The poll also showed that much of Mr McGuinness’s support came from young people and from working class communities.

    Mr McGuinness also finished third in an opinion poll carried out by Red C for bookmaker, Paddy Power. The Labour candidate also topped this poll, receiving 25 per cent, with Mr Gallagher finishing second on 21 per cent, five per cent ahead of Mr McGuinness on 16 per cent.
    http://www.derryjournal.com/news/local/mcguinness_third_in_polls_1_3129214

    I would say open election,how ever much you dont like it.And with the drop so fast in other candidates everything is possible.Then consider those not polled.
    I stand by what i said Martin will win.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 106 ✭✭pubview


    like a soap tv show some times or father ted show :D

    Now I have visions of Dana as Mrs Doyle. eek.gif


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 18,163 ✭✭✭✭Liam Byrne


    caseyann wrote: »
    Labour candidate, Michael D Higgins came out on top of the Ispos MRBI poll, which was carried out by the Irish Times, with 23 per cent support. The poll was carried about among 1,000 voters in every constituency in the 26 counties.

    That'd be every consitituency in the state, then ? Basically, everybody eligible to vote ?

    Why the objectionable McG-style phrasing ?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    caseyann wrote: »
    Labour candidate, Michael D Higgins came out on top of the Ispos MRBI poll, which was carried out by the Irish Times, with 23 per cent support. The poll was carried about among 1,000 voters in every constituency in the 26 counties.

    Independent candidate and entrepreneur, Séan Gallagher, was the second most popular candidate on 20 per cent, with Mr McGuinness a close third on 19 per cent.

    The poll also showed that much of Mr McGuinness’s support came from young people and from working class communities.

    Mr McGuinness also finished third in an opinion poll carried out by Red C for bookmaker, Paddy Power. The Labour candidate also topped this poll, receiving 25 per cent, with Mr Gallagher finishing second on 21 per cent, five per cent ahead of Mr McGuinness on 16 per cent.
    http://www.derryjournal.com/news/local/mcguinness_third_in_polls_1_3129214

    I would say open election,how ever much you dont like it.And with the drop so fast in other candidates everything is possible.Then consider those not polled.
    I stand by what i said Martin will win.
    derry journal is proof ,i dont think so,not in republic
    pools will change a little up and down but people already who they want
    i stand by michael d to win ;)


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,670 ✭✭✭✭Wolfe Tone


    Anyone else getting tired with the same old anti republicans spouting the same old lines and generalizations?

    Higgins will win with MMG and Gallagher completing the top three.

    However this is very much MMGs and SFs election and they will be the real benificiaries when all is said and done.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    Wolfe Tone wrote: »
    Anyone else getting tired with the same old anti republicans spouting the same old lines and generalizations?

    Higgins will win with MMG and Gallagher completing the top three.

    However this is very much MMGs and SFs election and they will be the real benificiaries when all is said and done.

    are we tired of sein fein stuff and propaganda .yes but
    voters have all ready made there minds up


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 14,670 ✭✭✭✭Wolfe Tone


    Keltic, could you get a spellchecker or try to take a bit more time constructing your posts? Some are quite hard to read, no offense.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    Wolfe Tone wrote: »
    Anyone else getting tired with the same old anti republicans spouting the same old lines and generalizations?

    Higgins will win with MMG and Gallagher completing the top three.

    However this is very much MMGs and SFs election and they will be the real benificiaries when all is said and done.

    You are preaching to the choir Wolfe Tone.Can not say a positive word about MMG at all with out same posters appearing to attack.:p


    I really think mickey d will fall at last hurdle to be honest.Selective polls are being used.I have seen polls where Martin won the debate and is top favourite with a whopping 2336 saying they will vote for him.lol

    As i was saying so many polls and so many different views.
    http://www.clare.fm/poll/who-will-you-vote-irelands-next-president?nocache=1


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭sparkling sea


    COYW wrote: »
    Now Liam, have you not learned that SF and it's supporters are beyond questioning by now!

    Well said.

    They remind me of the London rioters, their quick to mobilise, they band together, they try to bully you into submission and if that doesn't work they turn nasty. They appear to be everywhere - they must use blackberrys.
    But fortunately they are much smaller in numbers then they like to think - this reflected in actual election.

    Micheal D looks the most likely to win but its hard to say after that. Gay Mitchell will have to wait to see if the FG voters come out.
    Sean Gallagher's link with FF is being pushed fairly hard by some parts of the media and this is likely to have effect. MMcG will have a good amount of 1st preferences but he is unlikely to attract transfers, and the same could be said for David Norris. Forget Dana.
    Couldn't say with Mary Davis - I wonder will there be a Mary factor?

    Now that the salary issue has been exhausted and put to bed, the candidates at least being questioned on issues, some are not actually answering but this in itself is telling.

    Not sure we actually need a President though


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    Wolfe Tone wrote: »
    Keltic, could you get a spellchecker or try to take a bit more time constructing your posts? Some are quite hard to read, no offense.

    none taken but i think you get the drift what i was saying


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,373 ✭✭✭✭foggy_lad


    caseyann wrote: »
    People havent already made up their mind who to vote for.In a lot of polls there is alot who are still saying dont know.So the next weeks will see changes up and down.

    http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1006/redcpresidentpoll.pdf

    177160.JPG

    Check out pages 10 and 11 in the poll results


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    foggy_lad wrote: »
    http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1006/redcpresidentpoll.pdf

    177160.JPG

    Check out pages 10 and 11 in the poll results


    http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/1006/redcpresidentpoll.pdf :eek:

    And i dont know alot of people who vote on them things in first place,so they have to be included.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    Key Findings
    • Michael D Higgins tops the poll securing 25% of the first preference vote, a rise of 7% since a similar poll
    conducted for the Sunday Business Post a week ago. He also remains in pole position with regard to
    transfers and based on this poll is likely to win the election.
    • However, Sean Gallagher actually has even stronger upward momentum, and appears to benefit from
    the demise of both Norris and Davis. He takes second place in this poll with 21% of the first preference
    vote, a rise of 10% in just one week.
    • McGuinness retains his position in third place, having secured 16% first preference, the same as a week
    ago. His share appears to be limited at around this level, with poor levels of transfer suggested by the
    poll analysis. He is also the candidate that over a third of the public least want to see become president.
    • David Norris falls back into fourth place, securing 14% of the vote, a drop of 7%, having lead a similar
    poll last week with 21% share. He is still liked by the public who suggest he is the candidate that most
    would like to have to dinner, but his suitability for this role now appears to be in question.
    • Gay Mitchell is fourth securing just 10% first preference, a fall of 3% in the past week. Suggesting that
    (3)
    while the campaigning against other candidates like Norris, McGuiness and Davis is working, it isn't
    giving Mitchell a lift himself. He also only secures 15% of the Fine Gael vote, with Higgins taking 27%
    and Gallagher 25%.
    • Mary Davis also sees her vote decline by 3% after a week of intense scrutiny, leaving her in sixth place
    on 9% first preference.
    • Finally, Dana remains in last place, securing 5% of the first preference vote, down 1% in the past week.
    • It is a case of young vs. old among the top two candidates, with Higgins needing to do better among
    younger voters and Gallagher needing to persuade older voters more on his credentials.
    • Transfers are initially positive for Gallagher, as Davis is likely to go out early on – but after this Higgins
    dominates the transfers for the next three candidates suggesting at this stage that he is currently in a
    strong position to secure the Presidency.
    • When Irish Citizens are asked who they think will win the election, most think that Higgins will be elected,
    Gallagher needs to portray a stronger image of someone that should be President.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    1. Higgins strength is in the older age groups and in Dublin
    2. Gallagher does well among younger voters – perhaps less likely to get out and vote. He also does
    well in Munster
    3. McGuinness is weak among women – his strength regionally is in Connaught and Ulster
    4. Norris still does well among younger voters, but poorly among older voters. He still does relatively well in Dublin


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    McGuinness does well out of Scanlon's transfers who is likely to be eliminated first. Then Gallagher
    performs strongly among Davis possible transfers suggesting he could push Higgins initially. After
    this however Higgins dominates suggesting he remains very much in the driving seat.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,373 ✭✭✭✭foggy_lad


    The male/female split for McGuinness is significant also as it shows that the main voters he is relying on are middle aged men from the three ulster counties and some from munster. it also appears he will lose out to Dana in Donegal.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    McGuinness is the candidate that the greatest number of people would not like to see become president, but Norris is also seen in a negative manner by a relatively large number of citizens.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    The Irish Citizen “Crowd” currently thinks that Higgins will be elected, Gallagher needs to
    portray a stronger image of someone that should be President.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,410 ✭✭✭sparkling sea


    The poll reflects what most people know, there is no middle ground really when it comes to Martin McGuinness, people love him or hate him. Some don't recognise him as a legitimate candidate at all - others feel he is the rightful heir.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,799 ✭✭✭KELTICKNIGHTT


    The majority of citizens do feel that Norris should publish his letters, with over a third of his own
    supporters suggesting that he should publish.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 7,941 ✭✭✭caseyann


    Anyone else want to predict who will be president or will this thread spiral out of control into the bashing of Martin again because i said he would win?

    If not can mods close this thread please,as i was looking for a poll for predictions.
    Thanks

    As i said i predict Martin :) The only one with balls and good political sense and can get the enterprise trade and jobs Ireland needs with his contacts and respect he has all over world. And no i didnt write this for you haters to quote me so dont bother.


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