RWC QF: Ireland vs Wales, Sat 8 Oct 6:00am; Pre/During/Post Match Thread

thomond2006

Ireland:
15 Robert Kearney, 14 Tommy Bowe, 13 Brian O'Driscoll (capt), 12 Gordon D'Arcy, 11 Keith Earls, 10 Ronan O'Gara, 9 Conor Murray,
8 Jamie Heaslip, 7 Sean O'Brien, 6 Stephen Ferris, 5 Paul O'Connell, 4 Donncha O'Callaghan, 3 Mike Ross, 2 Rory Best, 1 Cian Healy.

Replacements: 16 Sean Cronin, 17 Tom Court, 18 Donnacha Ryan, 19 Denis Leamy, 20 Eoin Reddan, 21 Jonathan Sexton, 22 Andrew Trimble.

Wales:
15 Leigh Halfpenny, 14 George North, 13 Jonathan Davies, 12 Jamie Roberts, 11 Shane Williams, 10 Rhys Priestland, 9 Mike Phillips,
8 Toby Faletau, 7 Sam Warburton (captain), 6 Dan Lydiate, 5 Alun-Wyn Jones, 4 Luke Charteris, 3 Adam Jones, 2 Huw Bennett, 1 Gethin Jenkins.

Replacements: 16 Lloyd Burns, 17 Paul James, 18 Bradley Davies, 19 Ryan Jones, 20 Lloyd Williams, 21 James Hook, 22 Scott Williams.

Date: Saturday, October 8
Kick-off: 18:00 (local time)
Venue: Wellington Regional Stadium

Referee: Craig Joubert
Assistant referees: Wayne Barnes, Romain Poite
Television match official: Giulio De Santis
Assessor: Bob Francis

No shortage of history: Ronan O'Gara kicks Ireland to the Grand Slam in 2009; Brian O'Driscoll disputes the infamous illegal lineout in 2011.

Ireland face Wales in an all Six Nations quarter final, to decide who will face either England or France in the last four stage. Both sides know each other inside out and given both their prospective semi-final opponents are neither without blemish on or off the field, both Celtic Nations can sense a great opportunity of reaching their first World Cup final.

Anyone of sound mind would not have predicted Ireland’s favourable position going into the quarters. 2 years of huffing and puffing after 2009’s Grand Slam glory had left your typical Irish fan pessimistic and despondent. The general prediction was a loss to Australia, a scrappy win over Italy to get out of the pool and consequently facing South Africa in the quarter final and getting “bate out the gate” (to borrow a hurling term!). Whether Kidney had us fooled or the team’s revival is a coincidence is difficult to ascertain. What isn’t up for debate is that a place in the Rugby World Cup Final is not beyond this team.

Before the tournament your typical bookie was quoting Ireland at 40/1 as outright winners. Given Ireland’s form at the time this was not an unreasonable price by any means. Now Ireland’s market value stands as low as 12/1 with some firms. Instead of an “also-rans” tag, Ireland have earned the label of “dark horses” to win the tournament. This is an opportunity that Ireland’s golden generation cannot pass up. Thanks to their historic win over Australia, Ireland face the prospect of a quarter final and a subsequent semi-final against Six Nations opponents, sides that Ireland should not fear. With players such as Ferris, O'Brien and Kearney in such fantastic form, Ireland have no need to be afraid of a challenge. Before them lies a priceless opportunity to achieve immortality. Earning a semi-final place may only be the beginning.

Wales, like Ireland, have found form after an extended period of erratic performances. They were very unlucky to lose against South Africa, they were unable to close the game out and didn’t take their chances at the end to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Ironically, looking back that result has suited them. They would not have fancied a quarter final against Australia, who have defeated them heavily over the past few years. Their back play has improved beyond measure since this year’s Six Nations, Jamie Roberts has rediscovered the form that saw him Lions Player of the Series 2 years ago while George North has been a sensation on the wing. Similar to Tommy Bowe, North often acts as a blindside winger and with his strength and pace he has the potential to cut drifting defences to ribbons.

While rugby is a fifteen man game, it takes the marrying of many separate units (front row, halfbacks, centres etc) to form a functioning team. In both teams' cases, their units are at ease with each other. Each row of the Irish pack is playing as a cohesive unit. The Irish backline had to wait until the final pool game for favourable weather conditions and without the hindrance of severe wind and rain, Ireland were able to cut Italy apart out wide having been criticised for being unimaginative in previous games. Wales too appear to have a balanced outfit. In terms of backplay they get over the gainline with their big centres and use their very quick back three to get around defences, in this case the sense of teamwork is evident.

Selections

Rory Best has passed a fitness test while key men Dan Lydiate and Shane Williams return for Wales.

Declan Kidney has retained the same Ireland 22 that defeated Italy. Hooker Rory Best was an injury doubt after suffering from a sprained AC joint in his shoulder during the week. In this World Cup the Ulsterman has played some of the best rugby of his career so his availability is a big boost to Ireland.

There are 4 changes to the starting lineup that scored 66 points against Fiji last week. Dan Lydiate and Shane Williams return from injury to start at blindside flanker and left wing respectively. Alun Wyn Jones partners Luke Charteris at lock in place of Bradley Davies while Jonathan Davies replaces Scott Williams at outside centre. The versatile James Hook also returns from injury but will have to be content with a place on the bench. Rhys Priestland remains at number 10 and there is no place for veteran Stephen Jones in the 22.

Key Battle: Halfbacks

Murray & O'Gara vs Phillips & Priestland: A case of experience and inexperience.

Despite many calls for change, Declan Kidney has kept faith with the Munster duo of Murray and O'Gara. This is probably the correct decision, the two players performed well against Italy and deserved to retain the starting berth despite pressure from their Leinster counterparts. Phillips is one of the first names on a Welsh teamsheet while Priestland has been backed by Gatland to manage proceedings from the pivotal position.

Murray and Phillips are quite similar, in both appearance and playing style! They are both physical specimens and they use their bulk to good effect. They tend to take steps before passing from a ruck but due to their attacking threat this tends to fix the first group of defenders. It's been a rollercoaster of a year for Murray. In 12 months he's gone from 4th choice number 9 at Munster to becoming first choice for the national team. He got his opportunity during the Six Nations period and hasn't looked back since. He had a few wobbly moments against Italy but he quickly settled down and provided crisp service to his backs. Mike Phillips is back to his best form, it's no coincidence that Wales' rise in fortunes was in concert with Phillips' revival. His time at the Ospreys ended sourly but he has put last season firmly behind him.

O'Gara has been around the block but he still a class act in terms of game management. His general play against Italy was average by his high standards but his goal kicking was superb. It's no secret that he can be feeble defensively, Jamie Roberts and Jonathan Davies will target his channel to make inroads into Ireland's defence. Priestland has flourished since he got his chance during Wales' warm up campaign. He is still rough around the edges and is prone to making a poor judgement call but he will improve with every game he plays and unlike O'Gara, Priestland offers a significant threat with ball in hand.

Experience to count for Ireland?

The 'Cup Final' phenomena might be an overused cliché, but in a game where the tightest of margins can prove the difference between glory and anguish, it's an experienced team who can grab a game by the scruff of the neck, take the lead and subsequently have the calmness under pressure and the tactical nous to retain the lead. If you compare the two sides, the difference in exposure to cup rugby is staggering. From a Welsh perspective only Cardiff and Ospreys have been exposed to knockout football on a bi-annual basis, compared to Munster and Leinster who eat knockout rugb for breakfast every year through consistent high achievement at domestic and european level.

As mentioned before, Wales couldn't finish off South Africa when they were there for the taking. Ireland took the lead relatively early against Australia and knew exactly what to do to close out the game. A simple blueprint would be to do the exact opposite of what Scotland routinely do! The ability to control the tempo to retain a lead is a key part of game management and Ireland have more experience in that department.

Prediction:

On paper there's little between the sides. From a set-piece perspective there shouldn't be too much between the sides, both teams should be able to gain possession from their offensive scrum and lineout. The battle between Warburton and O'Brien should be something to savour, both have been the emerging talents of the tournament so far. The role of Stephen Ferris should not be forgotten either. The impact of James Hook and Jonny Sexton off the bench can be worth a try to either side. Ireland will avoid playing a fast and loose game as that is the environment Wales could savour. As written above Ireland have the edge when it comes to experience in playing knockout rugby and that could prove crucial. Ireland by less than 7.

Westpac Stadium, Wellington; Capacity = 36,000

---

IRFU & WRU logos taken from www.therugbyforum.com
RWC logo taken from http://ninetyninecall.wordpress.com/

Player images are from Planet Rugby or Sky Sports sources. Picture of Westpac Stadium from www.bvn.com.au

Team Lineups, Refs, Date & Time etc from:
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3558_7224899,00.html
http://www.planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,16024_7226497,00.html

Everything else is my own work.

efb

Wales

I can't wait, i'd say the margin will be even less than 5, but hopefully in Ireland's favour.

some_dose

I feel sick even thinking about it



(Great write up as usual though!)

tolosenc

Wales

thomond2006 wrote: »

A simple blueprint would be to do the exact opposite of what Scotland routinely do!

So, sing Flower of Scotland backwards at the end of the match and we're golden!

petebricquette

Wales

Brilliant write-up as usual, Thomond. Can't wait to see this! It's gonna be unbelievable.

MungBean

Wales

some_dose wrote: »

I feel sick even thinking about it

So do I. I've even gone off me grub a bit and man flu doesnt even put me off me grub.

DS

Wales

Best will start:

http://twitter.com/#!/MichaelC_RTE

gally74

Great news!!

GerM

Surprised Hook didn't make it. I can only assume that he's not 100% and with excellent alternatives available, they decided not to risk it. It puts a lot more pressure on Priestland though. Hook gave them a playmaking option from deep which they don't have with Halfpenny there. It's also entrusting a hell of a lot to the boot of Priestland and Halfpenny for the three pointers.

Lydiate back in is massive for them. He's a quality operator but he's also going to be playing on our terms. He's a workhorse with a touch of class but I expect him to have his hands full all day in a tree-felling operation on SOB and Ferris.

The back three suggests they're really going to have a go at running it back at us so ROG will have to be careful with his kick placement. It's interesting that they've gone with 2 of the back 3 that read ROG's kicking game in the 6N so well.

I was listening to NewsTalk on the drive in this morning. Their breakfast presenter, Chris O'Donoghue, flew out to Wellington on Tuesday and has just landed in time to co-host. The customs official in Wellington told him that there are 13 (!) flights coming in from Australia tomorrow and the passengers are predominantly Irish passport holders. He also spoke with Wellington city officials and match organisers and they expect up to 30k people in green to descend upon the cake tin. This is going to be a wee bit special.

prospect

Statistics for Ireland vs Wales (Source; Rugbydata.com)

Games played: 116
Games won by Ireland: 47 40.52%
Games Won By Wales: 63 54.31%
Games drawn: 6 5.17%

Most wins in a row for Ireland: 5
Most wins in a row for Wales: 5

Largest points for Ireland: 54 = 54 - 10
Largest points for Wales: 34 = 9 - 34

Largest winning margin for Ireland: 44 = 54 - 10
Largest winning margin for Wales: 29 = 29 - 0

Total points for Ireland: 1,229
Total points for Wales: 1,348

Average points for Ireland per game: 10.59
Average points for Wales per game: 11.62

Average points difference per game between Ireland and Wales: -1.03


Last 5 Games:

12 Mar 2011 Wales 19 - 13 Ireland
13 Mar 2010 Ireland 27 - 12 Wales
21 Mar 2009 Wales 15 - 17 Ireland
08 Mar 2008 Ireland 12 - 16 Wales
04 Feb 2007 Wales 9 - 19 Ireland

Noffles

Neil Francis

GerM wrote: »

Surprised Hook didn't make it. I can only assume that he's not 100% and with excellent alternatives available, they decided not to risk it. It puts a lot more pressure on Priestland though. Hook gave them a playmaking option from deep which they don't have with Halfpenny there. It's also entrusting a hell of a lot to the boot of Priestland and Halfpenny for the three pointers.

Lydiate back in is massive for them. He's a quality operator but he's also going to be playing on our terms. He's a workhorse with a touch of class but I expect him to have his hands full all day in a tree-felling operation on SOB and Ferris.

The back three suggests they're really going to have a go at running it back at us so ROG will have to be careful with his kick placement. It's interesting that they've gone with 2 of the back 3 that read ROG's kicking game in the 6N so well.

I was listening to NewsTalk on the drive in this morning. Their breakfast presenter, Chris O'Donoghue, flew out to Wellington on Tuesday and has just landed in time to co-host. The customs official in Wellington told him that there are 13 (!) flights coming in from Australia tomorrow and the passengers are predominantly Irish passport holders. He also spoke with Wellington city officials and match organisers and they expect up to 30k people in green to descend upon the cake tin. This is going to be a wee bit special.

I was also listening to Newstalk and twice they said that North had been moved to Fullback, had to ask the missus to get online and check the lineup... breathed a sigh of relief when it was Halfpenny...

GerM

Noffles wrote: »

I was also listening to Newstalk and twice they said that North had been moved to Fullback, had to ask the missus to get online and check the lineup... breathed a sigh of relief when it was Halfpenny...

Exact same. I was thinking that the first thing I was going to do upon getting into work was to check has he ever played there before and why would they have Halfpenny out there and not put him to 15?!

Noffles

Neil Francis

I'm happy with the Welsh team, pretty much the best we could put out and leaving a good bench too... It's going to be a monumental match and hopefully I can come out of the early hours with a smile on my face...

.ak

I feel quesy. Going to be epic... Certain key battles all over the park... Hopefully Ireland go in there with the mentality of getting a job done, none of this day dreaming of a semi or final.

durkadurka

Wales

Noffles wrote: »

I was also listening to Newstalk and twice they said that North had been moved to Fullback, had to ask the missus to get online and check the lineup... breathed a sigh of relief when it was Halfpenny...

There is absolutely no way my missus would assist me with any rugby related research!

Noffles

Neil Francis

durkadurka wrote: »

There is absolutely no way my missus would assist me with any rugby related research!

The house is currently split down the middle... normal service returns after the match.

wixfjord

Wales

Highly surprised that Hook isn't starting at FB.
Haven't seen much of 1/2p there, but Hook is a genius imo.
Surely we'll have to send Kearney and Bowe on a couple of high bombs down Williams and Halfpennys side.

Bar the centres and North, Ireland are a more powerful and far more experienced team imo.
As leaders, I'd take BOD over Davies, O Connell over AWJ, Best over Huw Bennett, ROG over Priestland.
In my opinion, there's a bit of a dearth of leadership in that Welsh side, which could be crucial going into the last 20.

Annabella1

Wales

Agree with above...delighted Hook is on the bench.He can be a very good line breaker but may not be as strong in defence.I have only seen Halpenny on the wing
I just think Ireland have more big time players who have done it all before and having Best starting (even for 60mins) is a real bonus

simonmln

Wales

Will we see cross kicks galore from RO'G to Bowe against Williams. Or equally North against Earls. Have Wales ever used that tactic. Tommy is great in the scenario, and Williams isnt exactly huge. Just a thought.

Noffles

Neil Francis

wixfjord wrote: »

Highly surprised that Hook isn't starting at FB.
Haven't seen much of 1/2p there, but Hook is a genius imo.
Surely we'll have to send Kearney and Bowe on a couple of high bombs down Williams and Halfpennys side.

Bar the centres and North, Ireland are a more powerful and far more experienced team imo.
As leaders, I'd take BOD over Davies, O Connell over AWJ, Best over Huw Bennett, ROG over Priestland.
In my opinion, there's a bit of a dearth of leadership in that Welsh side, which could be crucial going into the last 20.

1/2penny plays FB very well indeed and should do just fine on the high ball, he'll also have a massive boot to return the it with interest if required. Hook is a great player and very creative but can also cover more positions if required to do so, there aren't many that can do this so in my opinion would be better suited to make an impact and / or cover from the bench.

Warburton has done fantastically well since taking over the skippers tag, I'm not worried about leadership to be honest, he leads by example and does that very well, what he doesn't have is age and that's not really a huge issue.

lets not confuse age with experience, Wales, in total may not have much experience as Ireland I agree but there is experience there and shouldn't be brushed over too easily... and lets be honest if it was all about experience we wouldn't leave R Jones on the bench, double grand slam winner and former Lion.

I'm so nervous about this - Going to the pub for a fry during the game and I seriously doubt I'll be able to eat.

The one thought that is giving me comfort is this.

If Ireland trail Wales into the last 1/4 of the game - we will hold our shape, and work to claw things back because we have a team of players that have won big games doing this.

I think if the reverse is true, and Wales trail Ireland - they will struggle to close it out and perhaps even leave themselves open to dropping more points.

Going to be a massive game. If we do win, watching the remaining quarter finals is going to be so sweet.

wixfjord

Wales

Noffles wrote: »

1/2penny plays FB very well indeed and should do just fine on the high ball, he'll also have a massive boot to return the it with interest if required. Hook is a great player and very creative but can also cover more positions if required to do so, there aren't many that can do this so in my opinion would be better suited to make an impact and / or cover from the bench.

Warburton has done fantastically well since taking over the skippers tag, I'm not worried about leadership to be honest, he leads by example and does that very well, what he doesn't have is age and that's not really a huge issue.

lets not confuse age with experience, Wales, in total may not have much experience as Ireland I agree but there is experience there and shouldn't be brushed over too easily... and lets be honest if it was all about experience we wouldn't leave R Jones on the bench, double grand slam winner and former Lion.

Halfpenny may be grand under a high ball, but with the world's best aerial full back, the world's best tactical kicker at 10 and Tommy Bowe breathing down on him, that may differ. He wouldn't be a recognised FB at this level at all, unlike Hook or Byrne imo.

The reason Ryan Jones is on the bench is not because of experience, it's because he's ****e tbh! Sure, we could bring along MOD, Leo Cullen, Stringer et al if that was the case.
Fact is, Ireland will have two HEC captains and numerous HEC winners in starting, as well as experienced international players, while Wales don't have near the same levels in their ranks.
Lydiate, Faletau, Priestland, Davies, North, Charteris, Bennett are all vastly inexperienced at the highest level, as is, truth be told, the Welsh captain.
Argue all you want, but that is a F.A.C.T.

bamboozle

Wales

GerM wrote: »

Surprised Hook didn't make it. I can only assume that he's not 100% and with excellent alternatives available, they decided not to risk it. It puts a lot more pressure on Priestland though. Hook gave them a playmaking option from deep which they don't have with Halfpenny there. It's also entrusting a hell of a lot to the boot of Priestland and Halfpenny for the three pointers.

Lydiate back in is massive for them. He's a quality operator but he's also going to be playing on our terms. He's a workhorse with a touch of class but I expect him to have his hands full all day in a tree-felling operation on SOB and Ferris.

The back three suggests they're really going to have a go at running it back at us so ROG will have to be careful with his kick placement. It's interesting that they've gone with 2 of the back 3 that read ROG's kicking game in the 6N so well.

I was listening to NewsTalk on the drive in this morning. Their breakfast presenter, Chris O'Donoghue, flew out to Wellington on Tuesday and has just landed in time to co-host. The customs official in Wellington told him that there are 13 (!) flights coming in from Australia tomorrow and the passengers are predominantly Irish passport holders. He also spoke with Wellington city officials and match organisers and they expect up to 30k people in green to descend upon the cake tin. This is going to be a wee bit special.

think he also mentioned they were expecting ireland fans to outnumber the welsh 3-1 inside the stadium. I really think the irish fans over there are having a huge impact on the team.

just to note, on monday Morning, O'Donoghue (obviously not a rugby/sports fan) kept referring to the Italian match having been on saturday so i doutb he'd even watched it

Noffles

Neil Francis

wixfjord wrote: »

Halfpenny may be grand under a high ball, but with the world's best aerial full back, the world's best tactical kicker at 10 and Tommy Bowe breathing down on him, that may differ. He wouldn't be a recognised FB at this level at all, unlike Hook or Byrne imo.

The reason Ryan Jones is on the bench is not because of experience, it's because he's ****e tbh! Sure, we could bring along MOD, Leo Cullen, Stringer et al if that was the case.
Fact is, Ireland will have two HEC captains and numerous HEC winners in starting, as well as experienced international players, while Wales don't have near the same levels in their ranks.
Lydiate, Faletau, Priestland, Davies, North, Charteris, Bennett are all vastly inexperienced at the highest level, as is, truth be told, the Welsh captain.
Argue all you want, but that is a F.A.C.T.

Hmmm.. lots of "worlds best" there... I'll not go as far as that I'm afraid.

And check 1/2penny out, you'll find he can play FB..

And it was your own argument about "Experience" I brought up Jones (nice sweeping statement about him by the way)... It isn't a guarantee...

Is F.A.C.T. an acronym, I don't know it? LOL

wixfjord

Wales

Noffles wrote: »

Hmmm.. lots of "worlds best" there... I'll not go as far as that I'm afraid.

And check 1/2penny out, you'll find he can play FB..

And it was your own argument about "Experience" I brought up Jones (nice sweeping statement about him by the way)... It isn't a guarantee...

Is F.A.C.T. an acronym, I don't know it? LOL

Fair enough, I just think you're suffering from a little bit of blind Welsh bias, and overcompensating for being the only Welsh poster on the board!
I think any rugby watcher would agree that most of what is said is bang on.

davegrohl48

Kearney/Bowe they all played to county minor level GAA. They've then brought that ability in the air on into their rugby careers. If Bowe feels comfortable going for a ball with hands above his head he generally pulls that off gaining height and time on the defence.
Kearney also doesn't knock on much even on high up and unders. He doesn't have to stop up as much and wait for the catch like most other backs.
You can see it in some of the Australian lads too that they are more comfortable moving into a ball when catching it and then moving off from the landing.
Over the first 15 I'd say we are probably the best overall catchers/kickers.
Even Cian Healy can bomb it down the pitch!!! I'm waiting for the day Healy manages a drop goal on the burst.
We definitely have a few worlds best at this aspect .... maybe

justsomebloke

wixfjord wrote: »

Fair enough, I just think you're suffering from a little bit of blind Welsh bias, and overcompensating for being the only Welsh poster on the board!

I would agree with Noffles and I'm not welsh

wixfjord

Wales

justsomebloke wrote: »

I would agree with Noffles and I'm not welsh

Agree on what point?

Webbs

Neil Francis

wixfjord wrote: »

Fair enough, I just think you're suffering from a little bit of blind Welsh bias, and overcompensating for being the only Welsh poster on the board!
I think any rugby watcher would agree that most of what is said is bang on.

Dont think Noffles is the only one with a little bias methinks!!

I for one am looking forward to the Jones Healy battle the 'worlds best' tighthead against an inconsistent performer in the tight and the 'worlds best' open play loosehead against an ever improving Ross.

Much is made of experience etc but the Irish are rightly singing the praises of O'Brien a relatively inexperienced back row player who hasnt met someone of Warburtons skill yet this world cup, the two best 7s of this world cup and not a whole lot of caps between them.

Irish supporters are bigging up the virtue of experience and the Welsh the 'if your good enough your old enough' outlook.

GerM

Halfpenny can play 15 but he's still vastly inexperienced there. Gatland really is throwing caution to the wind here which from a neutrals point is fantastic but it would put my heart crossways if I was Welsh. Halfpenny has never played 15 for Wales (aside from sub against Samoa) and only ever started once there in Europe for Cardiff and that was when both Blair and Czekaj were unavailable a few seasons back. I haven't bothered to check the Pro12 but suspect we're looking at a similar story with only a few starts (none in the last year anyway). I'm surprised to be honest as I thought he had more time at 15 than that.

I would think he's in the side primarily for his boot which tends to be more accurate than Hook from distance.

bamboozle

Wales

davegrohl48 wrote: »

Kearney/Bowe they all played to county minor level GAA. They've then brought that ability in the air on into their rugby careers. If Bowe feels comfortable going for a ball with hands above his head he generally pulls that off gaining height and time on the defence.
Kearney also doesn't knock on much even on high up and unders. He doesn't have to stop up as much and wait for the catch like most other backs.
You can see it in some of the Australian lads too that they are more comfortable moving into a ball when catching it and then moving off from the landing.
Over the first 15 I'd say we are probably the best overall catchers/kickers.
Even Cian Healy can bomb it down the pitch!!! I'm waiting for the day Healy manages a drop goal on the burst.
We definitely have a few worlds best at this aspect .... maybe

SOB played minor football with Carlow also!

justsomebloke

Noffles wrote: »

Hmmm.. lots of "worlds best" there... I'll not go as far as that I'm afraid.

And check 1/2penny out, you'll find he can play FB..

mostly I agree with these 2 points. I think Kearny still has a lot to prove to be considered as a world's best aerial full back and although ROG has been playing very well I think some of his kicking has been a bit off.

I'd also agree that 1/2penny will be a decent enough full back.

Truthfully Wales is going to be one hell of a match and if people don't give them the credit they deserve we well maybe on a flight home early next week

wixfjord

Wales

Webbs wrote: »

Dont think Noffles is the only one with a little bias methinks!!

I for one am looking forward to the Jones Healy battle the 'worlds best' tighthead against an inconsistent performer in the tight and the 'worlds best' open play loosehead against an ever improving Ross.

Much is made of experience etc but the Irish are rightly singing the praises of O'Brien a relatively inexperienced back row player who hasnt met someone of Warburtons skill yet this world cup, the two best 7s of this world cup and not a whole lot of caps between them.

Irish supporters are bigging up the virtue of experience and the Welsh the 'if your good enough your old enough' outlook.

But where am I incorrect then if I'm biased?
SOB has won a Heineken Cup, and I didn't mention him as being experienced at all. He's not our captain either!
Facts are facts, not bias.

davegrohl48

Across Lions/Leinster/Ireland I think Kearny has proved to be close to being worlds best aerial full back. There is no one in Northern hemisphere close to him? I can't name anyone, but will stand corrected if there is?
If he's best in Northern hemisphere he should be fairly close to it given the up and under nature style of rugby played in NH.
Aussie backs are generally comfortable in the air as well, it makes sense Ireland/Australia are good in the air.

kerosene

Would it be worth considering switching Earls and Kearney for this game only. Wales are likely to target Earls by kicking high to North, would it be better to switch Kearney to the wing due to his superiority under a high ball

GerM

davegrohl48 wrote: »

Across Lions/Leinster/Ireland I think Kearny has proved to be close to being worlds best aerial full back. There is no one in Northern hemisphere close to him? I can't name anyone, but will stand corrected if there is?
If he's best in Northern hemisphere he should be fairly close to it given the up and under nature style of rugby played in NH.
Aussie backs are generally comfortable in the air as well, it makes sense Ireland/Australia are good in the air.

Nobody in the NH is as good and that's without bias. His fielding has been the dominant aspect of his game at every level right up to Lions test matches where he made light work of the SA bombs again and again. Whilst one or two of the NZ and Australian players may be more athletic in their fielding, I would be hard pushed to say any of them are more consistent than him. He keeps it simple and safe and is rarely beaten for a ball. Teams have changed their tactics in open play and from restarts due to his presence.

SSK

kerosene wrote: »

Would it be worth considering switching Earls and Kearney for this game only. Wales are likely to target Earls by kicking high to North, would it be better to switch Kearney to the wing due to his superiority under a high ball

No...Wales aren't going to switch Williams and Halfpenny just because Tommy Bowe is a foot taller than Williams.

Earls can more than hold his own in the air if he has to

justsomebloke

GerM wrote: »

Nobody in the NH is as good and that's without bias. His fielding has been the dominant aspect of his game at every level right up to Lions test matches where he made light work of the SA bombs again and again.

I'd argue though that it was been a good while since he has been as good as was then though. Yes I think he is coming back into that type of form but still has a bit to go.

wixfjord

Wales

justsomebloke wrote: »

mostly I agree with these 2 points. I think Kearny still has a lot to prove to be considered as a world's best aerial full back and although ROG has been playing very well I think some of his kicking has been a bit off.

I'd also agree that 1/2penny will be a decent enough full back.

Truthfully Wales is going to be one hell of a match and if people don't give them the credit they deserve we well maybe on a flight home early next week

I think you're just trying to pick holes in my argument tbh.
Who do you think the world's best aerial (and remember I'm saying aerial now) FB if not Kearney. The man has proven time and time again that he's incredible in the air, and on at least two occasions in this WC has made amazing catches. There's no disputing this in my opinion.
I don't think ROG is 100% on the tactical kicking, but I do think he's far better than what Wales have, and better than anyone else in the world at finding corners and Garryowns, which Halfpenny may struggle with.

I'm not disputing that Halfpenny is ok at FB, and may even turn out to be a good one, but currently, he's not experienced at all, he's small so susceptible to a high ball and in the white hot heat of a WC QF, he's bound to be caught out positionally.

I'm the first to not go OTT with praise, and Wales are a cracking team, but to say we're not favourites, not far more experienced and not going to target an obvious Welsh weakness would be madness. Humble is one thing, reality is another.

wixfjord

Wales

justsomebloke wrote: »

I'd argue though that it was been a good while since he has been as good as was then though. Yes I think he is coming back into that type of form but still has a bit to go.

He's been injured for the best part of the full year this year!

GerM

justsomebloke wrote: »

I'd argue though that it was been a good while since he has been as good as was then though. Yes I think he is coming back into that type of form but still has a bit to go.

He was injured for a long stretch and also, as previously said, teams tend not to put the ball up in the air now simply due to his presence on the field. We've put up a couple that he's won including one beauty against Australia that brought us down into their territory and earned us three points. I don't think he's lost any sharpness, just the opportunities to showcase the talent aren't presented much much these days.

justsomebloke

wixfjord wrote: »

He's been injured for the best part of the full year this year!

I'm well aware of that, but both before and after the injury I don't think he was as good as catching as he once was and I've seen him drop some balls for leinster that previously would of been easy for him. I think some of this may have been due to Isa taking is spot as the preferred 15 and Kearney trying to force himself back in. So for me Kearney still isn't the player he used to be but the continual game time now seems to be seeing him get back to form.

Lord Trollington

Wales

There's alot being said here about North and his height advantage over Earls.

I'm 5'11 and I play midfield for my Gaelic Football Club. 9/10 times I'm the smallest of the 3 other midfielders on any given day.

There's 2 things I do if i'm completely out fought in the air (which is rare as i have a huge leap & also a lot of it is about timing).

1. I continuously break the ball and rely on people under the breaks or

2. I allow him to catch the ball and the very minute he returns to the ground I wrap him up and dont allow him the go anythere with it.

Number 2 is the key here for Earls if they are targeting him with bombs (which I doubt they will)
Let him catch the ball, the very minute he hits the turf absolutely nail him legally.
Next time he's going up for the ball this will be in the back of him mind.

Webbs

Neil Francis

kerosene wrote: »

Would it be worth considering switching Earls and Kearney for this game only. Wales are likely to target Earls by kicking high to North, would it be better to switch Kearney to the wing due to his superiority under a high ball

I'll be surprised if Wales use this tactic they dont use the high ball very often even more rarely this world cup preferring to keep ball in hand. The high ball is a last resort for the Welsh

Webbs

Neil Francis

wixfjord wrote: »

Halfpenny may be grand under a high ball, but with the world's best aerial full back, (Beale?) the world's best tactical kicker at 10 (Carter?)and Tommy Bowe breathing down on him, that may differ. He wouldn't be a recognised FB at this level at all, unlike Hook or Byrne imo.
.

could easily argue for the above as being best in world so yes still stand by my bias comment

chris85

Webbs wrote: »

I'll be surprised if Wales use this tactic they dont use the high ball very often even more rarely this world cup preferring to keep ball in hand. The high ball is a last resort for the Welsh

Agree on this they much prefer to go ball in hand.

splashthecash

lads - this is going to be a cracker.....getting nervous already here

Noffles

Neil Francis

chris85 wrote: »

Agree on this they much prefer to go ball in hand.

This is where I get a little concerned of us playing too much rugby in our own half... I don't want us trying to play our way out of the 22 when you've a howitzer boot just behind you... nothing wrong with giving it a hoof and getting to touch.

.ak

I really don't think Earls under high ball vs North will be an issue. He's had a good outing at FB as we saw in the 6N, so he's competent under high ball (lets not talk about the warm up matches though).

Wales won't be looking at that, they'll punch the midfield before spreading it wide to North, they'll be looking for that one on one where Earls can easily fluff a tackle against the bigger man, especially if North has opportunity to hand-off.

For that very reason I think Kearney will have a quiet game, but will be instrumental in defense at certain times. Hope he has his tackling boots on...



The first point I made just there puts the 1/2p at FB into context actually. Some people are saying the Welsh fans must be irked by the choice at FB, but in reality it's not that bad. It's not great either mind you. It'd be akin to putting Earls at FB for Ireland. It's not his position, but we wouldn't be too miffed about it either, especially if we didn't have much of a choice (Hook obviously isn't 100%)

Also, what's the story with Lydiate's injury? Is it something the Irish can target?

bleg

Wales

Only 2 more sleeps!

http://www.rte.ie/sport/rugby/worldcup/2011/1006/rwc_ireland_analysis_mcquilkin.html

bleg

Wales

Conversely all the UK based punditry is tipping Wales.