How to beat Wales?

Priestland is a weak link who's been playing out of his skin. Do we send SOB and Ferris after him?

North is sensational, the guy is so quick and unpredictable, what do we do to keep an eye on him? He's a Tommy Bowe style winger, gets inside and picks good lines when needed. We can't rely only on a drift defence to negate him.

Warburton is probably the best groundhog in the tournament bar Pocock. SOB and Ferris and Heaslip are going to have to blast him out of the game as often as possible.

Do we play a tight forwards game looking to get mauls and scrums going? I think that we've had a fantastic scrum so far, and it's been very encouraging. But facing the likely, we'll be missing Best, and it's quite a step down to Cronin/Varley from there. Best's scrummaging is a very strongpoint of his game. The Welsh pack are full of ghost players. Guys who wouldn't particularly stand out as world beaters, but do their job really very well, "Simon Easterbys" is probably an apt description. This is the gameplan that we used against AUS, and obviously it was quite succesful, but Wales are smart, we will need to retain the threat out wide if we want to go with this. (Sexton?)

We could play the strangle game (which suits an on form ROG), and get into them at the lineouts, but again, Best missing is going to be huge for us there. We also are going to have to try keep the ball out of North's hands, and any of the back 3 in fairness!

Battle of the backrow is going to be sensational imo, Wales have a classical backrow with balance across, while we have 3 guys who would be able to play the same game no matter what number's on their back, and that are convincingly great at that too! This will be a demonstration of "old v new" school breakdowns I think.

Lets not focus on our team for a moment, and try and look at it the way our coaches would be, try to figure out what we must do to negate Wales, and also to take advantage of any perceived weaknesses.

Thoughts on Wales?

JustinDee

mix tactics of Aussie and Italian games with added memory of robbery in Cardiff.

michelledoh

Very worried by their centre combination tbh. Davies and Roberts are playing very well.

I do think their back three (specifically Williams) can be targeted by bombs, and we should be feeding Cronin raw meat and getting him to practise his throwing all week.

Best would be a HUGE loss if he's out, as it looks. It would nulify our scrum too.

Reloc8

They have more pace across the three quarters than us.

When we kick defensively kick the ball off the park.

Get parity in the scrums.

Run at Warburton over and over and over and over again - to tire him out and put him on his arse early in the phases. Don't go wide until he's on the deck.

Strength of our team is at numbers 6 to 10. Line up Ferris, Heaslip, SOB running off each other's shoulders - like Ferris' try v NZ but without the forward pass.

Facing a class 7 where we don't have an orthodox competitor, you'd think a lot about how to use the blindside.

Few thoughts anyway.

thomond2006

Posted from ROG or Sexton thread:

I think we gotta play territory against the Welsh and put pressure on their lineout. Playing a fast and loose game will suit them.

corny

Just play the percentages against them and focus everything on defence. There's always been very little in it in terms of the backlines but in times past we've won because we've better forwards en masse. Not to mention a better kicker of course.

.ak

I dunno.. Kicking possession away will see passes being put back inside with Roberts/Davies and causing havoc. They'll target BOD's weak shoulder that's for sure.

In simple terms I think we'll need to play tight, and keep possession to win this one...

danthefan

thomond2006 wrote: »

Posted from ROG or Sexton thread:

I think we gotta play territory against the Welsh and put pressure on their lineout. Playing a fast and loose game will suit them.

We kicked and kicked and kicked against them in the 6N, it was a horrible performance.

Micky Dolenz

Simple, score more points then them :P

It'll be won in the forwards. We need to keep it tight there and try not to give their backs room to run at us.

[Jackass]

We have a better pack than Wales, arguably they have a better back-line, but it's very tight from 1 to 15.

I think the best game plan is exactly what we did against Australia, absolutely strangle their supply of ball, kill and slow down all oppertunities for them to play an open, expansive game, really target them upfront and their set-piece also, and try and dominate the close encounters. Our pack is our strength. It may be a while since we've been able to say that, but it's full of agressive ball carriers and hard workers at the breakdown.

The only variation in game plan would be with ball in hand, I'd target them out wide and put pressure on their back three pinning them deep inside their half with punts. Perhaps O'Gara is the man for the job, but I'd certainly look to play the game in their half primarily and look to take points from dominance in the close encounters.

A loose, open running game against Wales will be an absolute lottery.

GerM

thomond2006 wrote: »

Posted from ROG or Sexton thread:

I think we gotta play territory against the Welsh and put pressure on their lineout. Playing a fast and loose game will suit them.

I think that's playing with fire. I assume ROG will start and from hand his radar has been slightly off. Italy is one thing but the Welsh back three will murder us running the ball back from deep. Even when we make touch, they'll look to take the quick line out. They've Luke Charteris playing excellently in the set piece and making a nuisance on opposition ball.

To beat them, I think we need to keep the ball in hand but to keep moving it and changing the focus using our heavy hitters in midfield. Move the ball quickly and clear of the tackle area. Don't let Lydiate and Warburton get near our ball. Our clearing out needs to be murderous. Keep it away from their back three at all costs. Play to our strength which is our back row unit and the work rate and mobility of POC, Best (oh please Jesus) and Healy. We saw Bowe, finally, used regularly in midfield today as a tactic which he is superb at when he's on form. I think their midfield can be pulled around and our strike runners can have some joy in there.

Wouldn't mind seeing a couple of bombs dropping on Hook/Williams also with Kearney and Bowe hunting.

Conas

We beat them by getting our big ball carriers on the ball. Close down their backs at every chance. To be honest just play exactly like we did against the Aussies and we should win. It's a massive game. Wales looked good today.

eurokev

with harpoons

SkySter

Conas wrote: »

We beat them by getting our big ball carriers on the ball. Close down their backs at every chance. To be honest just play exactly like we did against the Aussies and we should win. It's a massive game. Wales looked good today.

Exactly. Deny possession to their backs. Keep it at close quarters and don't kick away possession. Play to our strengths. I think Sexton should start as he did against Aus. Same game plan.

overshoot

i think it could come down to if best recovers as to what game we play. i wouldnt feel comfortable playing the territory game with cronin. the scrum will also take i hit the lineout a bigger one. while if feel we will still have at least parity in the scrum i dont think we can count on it for dominance and getting on the front foot.
so for me with best, we go with ROG at 10 and play territory, id be confident of winning with this
without best- i think sexton and we cut loose, and run at them with the backs and back row. wales would like this type of game but i think overall we do have more quality and should edge an epic spectical. -but id rather a poor spectical and us in the semis than a epic game and us off home

SkySter

Anyone know when the ref will be announced? Hope to god it isn't Kaplan again!

MLC61

What is it with this back row obsession ?

Australia had the best 7 in the world.
Italy had the best 8 in the world.
Now Wales have the best 7 in the tournament.

I can only assume most of guys played, or wanted to play, at 7?

The welsh pack are not that good. When O'Connell looks over in the tunnel he is going to see Luke Charteris - enough said.

Philips can be ponderous and is not going to bully our back row. Lee Byrne can be suspect under pressure. Roberts has not excelled in big games - tends to dominate weake opposition. Yes they are quick and dangerous from loose play.

Repeat of scond half today and Australia will blow their pack off the park.

RoryMc23

You need to play like we did against Australia. ROG's (assuming Kidney selects him) performance against Wales in the 6N this year cannot be repeated. We will also need ROG to stop giving away so many yards in the tackle because Wales have the ability to exploit that. Ideally I'd start Sexton because he plays a different type of game that is very effective against teams like Wales,France,NZ and Australia and he is a rock in defence.


Heaslip will need to be busy on the ground preventing Warburton from imposing himself on the game and Ferris and O'Brien will need to carry as they have been doing since the beginning of the competition. The problem is that Roberts will definitely be targetting the 10 channel if O'Gara is there so one of the 3 will have to look after ROG which might give Wales even more opportunity to get quicker ball.

We also need Reddan on top form as Wales backrow will turn you over if your not quick in getting to the break down (Murray isn't quick at all getting to breakdown so I pray he doesn't start). Reddan is probably our most physical SH and turned over 2 players in the 10minutes he was on today. He would be more than a match for Phillips.

Pray for Best.

michelledoh

MLC61 wrote: »

What is it with this back row obsession ?

Australia had the best 7 in the world.
Italy had the best 8 in the world.
Now Wales have the best 7 in the tournament.

I can only assume most of guys played, or wanted to play, at 7?

The welsh pack are not that good. When O'Connell looks over in the tunnel he is going to see Luke Charteris - enough said.

Philips can be ponderous and is not going to bully our back row. Lee Byrne can be suspect under pressure. Roberts has not excelled in big games - tends to dominate weake opposition. Yes they are quick and dangerous from loose play.

Repeat of scond half today and Australia will blow their pack off the park.

I think a lot of this is incorrect and a bit blinkered.
Firstly, their backrow is brilliant, and, while lacking the experience of ours, is certainly a good match. The three things you posted about the backrow are all true or nearly true.

The Welsh pack are not brilliant, but they're solid and held their own against the Saffers. Adam Jones and Alun Wyn Jones, two crucial positions, started for the Lions lets remember.

We've a Philips clone at 9 if Murray starts, and Byrne is arguably one of the best FBs in the world, certainly not much between him and Kearney, while Roberts excelled on one of the highest points of the game, the Lions, and Davies is widely recognised as one of the best young players in the game.

On paper, we're the better team, but it's by no means as simple as you've made it tbh, especially if we've Best out.

GerM

MLC61 wrote: »

The welsh pack are not that good. When O'Connell looks over in the tunnel he is going to see Luke Charteris - enough said.

Philips can be ponderous and is not going to bully our back row. Lee Byrne can be suspect under pressure. Roberts has not excelled in big games - tends to dominate weake opposition. Yes they are quick and dangerous from loose play.

Repeat of scond half today and Australia will blow their pack off the park.

Lee Byrne probably won't play unless Hook fails to recover. Roberts has been having a very good tournament including the S.A. match, getting over the gain line and making a target for his pack continually and getting his side going forward. Same with Luke Charteris' form. He has been superb in the line out. AWJ, a test Lion, will be his partner. Their props are the Lions first choice props and arguably the two best props in Europe on form. Warburton and Lydiate are both excellent and, as a unit, the Welsh back row has been near the level of our own. We'll be hearing about those two lads for years to come.

You're massively underselling Wales, especially their pack. They're oozing confidence and have played some excellent rugby. This game is anyone's call. As BOD said, the side who turn up on the day are going to win it.

nice_guy80

In the interest of the game being played, and me getting up at 6am, I hope that both teams turn up.

corny

corny wrote: »

Just play the percentages against them and focus everything on defence. There's always been very little in it in terms of the backlines but in times past we've won because we've better forwards en masse. Not to mention a better kicker of course.

This is a sure fire way to remain competitive but not actually win the thing imo.

It's a gameplan that ensures that the scoreline never crushes either side, and you then rely on 2/3 bounces of a ball / referees decisions / passes sticking for us and falling for them to win the game.

It's a gameplan that changes how likely we are to win a game by closing up all our shores and giving us less chance to leak. But It's a scared gameplan, and a negative one.

Against teams like Italy and South Africa, who play a structured game that feeds on errors, it's a great ploy. You force them to concede turnovers and penalties in kickable positions, and then strangle them when they have the ball.

Vs teams that know how to use and more importantly move the ball, it's introducing a reliance on chance to beat them. The game v Wales in the 6N is a prime example tbh! They weren't even good that day either, but because we tried to keep it tight, we never pulled ahead. They got one silly decision and it cost us the game.

Personally think that we won't go out with this kind of gameplan. What we will do is try to get on top at the breakdown early and run a lot of ball in the inside channels in early phases before mixing things up with some wide play and some kicking. However, as we saw in the England v Wales games, Wales are very very competent at defending the 10m channels either side of the rucks. Obviously Ferris, SOB, Healy and Heaslip will have to punch holes like no other team has before, because front foot ball is the single most important way to beat a team like Wales.

Need to keep the ball away from their back 3 in broken play. They won't be near as inept as the Italians were with loose kicks. They also have a scrum half that won't kick away possession cheaply every time they get the ball and struggle with phases. Wales wont be afraid to put 15/20 phases together on the half way line when they have the ball.

darkman2

Some of the comments on Welsh rugby sites are hillarious. Alot of them genuinely believe they are going to streamroll Ireland. Does us no harm I suppose. We won our group, they came second in theirs. I don't see much basis for any arrogance from them. They are a good team. But so are Ireland.

thomond2006

darkman2 wrote: »

Some of the comments on Welsh rugby sites are hillarious. Alot of them genuinely believe they are going to streamroll Ireland. Does us no harm I suppose. We won our group, they came second in theirs. I don't see much basis for any arrogance from them. They are a good team. But so are Ireland.

Link?

justsomebloke

darkman2 wrote: »

Some of the comments on Welsh rugby sites are hillarious. Alot of them genuinely believe they are going to streamroll Ireland. Does us no harm I suppose. We won our group, they came second in theirs. I don't see much basis for any arrogance from them. They are a good team. But so are Ireland.

Given how the draw has ended up, every team (maybe bar Argentina) will be confident of getting to the final as they are playing teams they play every year. However no team should be over confident. This is knock out rugby now anything can happen

cgpg5

darkman2 wrote: »

Some of the comments on Welsh rugby sites are hillarious. Alot of them genuinely believe they are going to streamroll Ireland. Does us no harm I suppose. We won our group, they came second in theirs. I don't see much basis for any arrogance from them. They are a good team. But so are Ireland.

To be fair they got out of the toughest group in the competition very impressively. They should've beaten SA also. I think they're playing their best rugby for a long time. They've just as much right as us to be arrogant to be fair!

MungBean

darkman2 wrote: »

Some of the comments on Welsh rugby sites are hillarious. Alot of them genuinely believe they are going to streamroll Ireland. Does us no harm I suppose. We won our group, they came second in theirs. I don't see much basis for any arrogance from them. They are a good team. But so are Ireland.

From the small amount I've seen its a mixture of fear of the Irish pack and confidence in their own backs.

Havent seen many expecting to steam roll us, most seem to be of a similar opinion as us. Team playing well, great players, give it socks on the day and will win.

Bluefoam

I feel obliged to add the stereotypical answer here:

Tie some sheep to the corner flag... that'll keep 'em occupied

MungBean

Bluefoam wrote: »

I feel obliged to add the stereotypical answer here:

Tie some sheep to the corner flag... that'll keep 'em occupied

Awful lot of spuds to be eaten though, would we have the time ?

phog

Whichever team turns up and gets stuck in will win this game. If we're as slow to protect our own ball at the breakdown as we were today at times and agaisnt the USA we will suffer.

RoryMc23

phog wrote: »

Whichever team turns up and gets stuck in will win this game. If we're as slow to protect our own ball at the breakdown as we were today at times and agaisnt the USA we will suffer.

The ball has been fine, we beat Australia to the break down. The problem has been that Murray can be very slow getting to the break down. Its no coincidence that the two games where the break down was an issue were the games Murray started in.

flynninio

anybody know a good welsh forum? i know its the opposition forum wise but the welsh are normally good craic. bbc 606 forum used be great but its closed now

Noffles

flynninio wrote: »

anybody know a good welsh forum? i know its the opposition forum wise but the welsh are normally good craic. bbc 606 forum used be great but its closed now

Go to gwladrugby.com... One if best sites and a good laugh.. and they know their rugby too.

padraig.od

flynninio wrote: »

anybody know a good welsh forum? i know its the opposition forum wise but the welsh are normally good craic. bbc 606 forum used be great but its closed now

Most of the 606 crowd are now be found at www.nowrugby.com/mb

wonderboysam

http://www.nowrugby.com/mb/showthread.php?t=92857

Front row - Wales
Second row - Draw
Back row - Wales
Half backs - Wales
Centres - Draw
Wings - Draw
Full back - Ireland

Bench - Draw

Tactics and cheating - Ireland

lol

Fireball07

wonderboysam wrote: »

http://www.nowrugby.com/mb/showthread.php?t=92857



lol

Oh no, we're obviously fcuked.


EDIT: I'm reading through that thread now, and going by it the forum is much worse than this for trolls and stuff. There have been about 3 proper posts so far. And even they seem slightly deluded.

padraig.od

Fireball07 wrote: »

Oh no, we're obviously fcuked.


EDIT: I'm reading through that thread now, and going by it the forum is much worse than this for trolls and stuff. There have been about 3 proper posts so far. And even they seem slightly deluded.

The Welsh board is full of nutters, over confident nutters. The IMB is great craic though. English and Scots boards are decent enough too.

Brendan97

Front row - Ireland (Ireland at scrum time are miles ahead although the welsh scrum is solid ireland's scrum is a weapon)
Second row - Ireland (Ireland are vastly experienced in this area even though wales aren't too shabby in this area ireland are still better)
Back row - Ireland (Is there really a contest?.. bar Warburton also Faletau is a strong runner)
Half backs - draw (debatable)
Centres - Ireland (Ireland but s.williams is looking strong so could be a battle)
Wings - Wales (wales have really strong wingers especially the in-form G.North)
Full back - Ireland (Another close contest but byrne isn't as good as the welsh make him out)

Bench - Ireland (Ireland have a bench that you could put on and do as good if not better than the starters e.g o'gara, trimble, murray, cullen)

Tactics and cheating - Draw (no comment:p)

Fireball07

Brendan97 wrote: »

Front row - Ireland (Ireland at scrum time are miles ahead)
Second row - Ireland (Ireland are vastly experienced in this area)
Back row - Ireland (Is there really a contest?.. bar Warburton)
Half backs - Ireland (debatable but ireland edge it for me)
Centres - Ireland (No contest)
Wings - Wales (wales have really strong wingers especially the in-form G.North)
Full back - Ireland (Another close contest but phillips isn't as good as the welsh make him out)

Bench - Ireland (Ireland have a bench that you could put on and do as good if not better than the starters e.g o'gara, trimble, murray, cullen)

Tactics and cheating - Draw (no comment:p)

I dunno...we're not that far ahead. That looks just as bad as their over-confidence.

We're fairly even. For me:

Front row- Hard to say really, the Italians put us under pressure when they had their first choice front row and I rate Jenkins and Jones. I'd say draw, but advantage Wales if Best is gone.

Second row- I will give this to Ireland simply because we have O'Connell, who is on a different level to Jones, Charteris or Davies.

Back row- Both very talented backrows...but because Ferris and SOB are playing as well as they ever have, and Heaslip is playing well too, I think Ireland are on top here. But it's very close, Warburton in particular is some player.

Half-backs- Definite draw. Depends on the day.

Centres- Draw again. Before the revitalisation of D'Arcy in the last 2 games, I'd given a definite advantage to Wales. Again, it depends on the day.

Wings- Here I would give Wales the advantage, though luckily Bowe and Earls are in good form too.

Full-back- Phillips isn't a full-back..... but I'd say draw here

Noffles

Brendan97 wrote: »

Front row - Ireland (Ireland at scrum time are miles ahead)
Second row - Ireland (Ireland are vastly experienced in this area)
Back row - Ireland (Is there really a contest?.. bar Warburton)
Half backs - Ireland (debatable but ireland edge it for me)
Centres - Ireland (No contest)
Wings - Wales (wales have really strong wingers especially the in-form G.North)
Full back - Ireland (Another close contest but phillips isn't as good as the welsh make him out)

Bench - Ireland (Ireland have a bench that you could put on and do as good if not better than the starters e.g o'gara, trimble, murray, cullen)

Tactics and cheating - Draw (no comment:p)

That's as bloody bad as the Welsh one... **** sake..
Being Welsh and reading these boards over the years I've seen a million and one posts sweeping aside opponents... Lol, not sure of where I'm going with this...

But I do accept we're rarely in this position so should really accept/expect.... It as all part of the enjoyment of the build up....
And let's be perfectly honest all this pontificating just fills the internet up .... On the day its who turns up and wants it more...

GerM

Brendan97 wrote: »

Front row - Ireland (Ireland at scrum time are miles ahead)
Second row - Ireland (Ireland are vastly experienced in this area)
Back row - Ireland (Is there really a contest?.. bar Warburton)
Half backs - Ireland (debatable but ireland edge it for me)
Centres - Ireland (No contest)
Wings - Wales (wales have really strong wingers especially the in-form G.North)
Full back - Ireland (Another close contest but phillips isn't as good as the welsh make him out)
[/COLOR]

Tactics and cheating - Draw (no comment:p)

Think you need to take another look. The Welsh scrum is very solid. Adam Jones is the best tighthead in Europe for many. Gethin Jenkins, starting Lion and super player, is now back playing and should be ready for us at loosehead.

Their second row is good. Not super but very solid. They get through a lot of work and are both very good line out workers. As a unit, our boys probably shade it but its not a significant advantage, especially at set piece where they're as good as us.

The Welsh back row is a super unit. Lydiate is a fantastic player and you're doing him a disservice. He's someone I really wouldn't mind missing our match. He reminds me of a more ball carrying Simon Easterby. The back row clash is going to be titanic. I think our experience could shade it as their unit is so young but in terms of form, they're probably the one unit up there with us right now.

Centres will be a big contest. The two Welsh lads are playing really good stuff not only getting over the gain line but cutting through and scoring. I don't know who Phillips is at 15. Hook will be their full back if he makes it which seems likely and he's another class act.

Fireball07

Wow, those dudes really don't rate us or like us.

Donncha O'Strangler and Gougey O'Quinlan were particular favourites of mine. I really can't remember Irish players gouging so much that we'd be called the gougy gougers though.

Obviously this is not their coaching staff, who surely won't underestimate us- but they don't rate our scrum, they don't rate Ferris/O'Brien/Heaslip as top class. Our half-backs are shít and BOD is our only top player.

Brendan97

Brendan97 wrote: »

Full back - Ireland (Another close contest but phillips isn't as good as the welsh make him out)

Sorry meant lee byrne!

RoryMc23

Front row - Wales
Second row - Ireland
Backrow - Ireland
Half back - Wales (although if Reddan-Sexton are playing i'd give to IRE)
Centre - Ireland
Back 3 - Wales

c montgomery

As far as im concerned there's only one way to beat Wales, we need to score more points than them;)

C'mon Oirland

Brendan97

c montgomery wrote: »

As far as im concerned there's only one way to beat Wales, we need to score more points than them;)

very valid point there, if we beat them on the score board we are sure to win the match:D

Grimebox

Fireball07 wrote: »

Our half-backs are shít and BOD is our only top player.

I saw one post referring to BOD as "O'Pig" and didn't rate him at all saying is pace is waning. I don't think I will be returning to that site

Fireball07

Grimebox wrote: »

I saw one post referring to BOD as "O'Pig" and didn't rate him at all saying is pace is waning. I don't think I will be returning to that site

Oh...I thought O'Pig was someone else.

They said he was our only world class player and the only player who'd get in the NZ team. (Tbh I actually don't think he'd get ahead of Smith atm) Still, if they underrate us, that can only be good.

Brendan97

Brendan97 wrote: »

Front row - Ireland (Ireland at scrum time are miles ahead although the welsh scrum is solid, ireland's scrum is a weapon)
Second row - Ireland (Ireland are vastly experienced in this area even though wales aren't too shabby in this area ireland are still better)
Back row - Ireland (Is there really a contest?.. bar Warburton also Faletau is a strong runner)
Half backs - draw (debatable)
Centres - Ireland (Ireland but s.williams is looking strong so could be a battle)
Wings - Wales (wales have really strong wingers especially the in-form G.North)
Full back - Ireland (Another close contest but byrne isn't as good as the welsh make him out)

Bench - Ireland (Ireland have a bench that you could put on and do as good if not better than the starters e.g o'gara, trimble, murray, cullen)

Tactics and cheating - Draw (no comment:p)

it has been fixed!:D

GerM

Brendan97 wrote: »

it has been fixed!:D

Brendan, you're off a fair bit still. Scott Williams won't start. Davies and Roberts are their starting centres. Byrne won't be their full back, Hook will unless his injury doesn't clear up but it's looking like it will. The Irish scrum is in no way miles ahead of the Welsh scrum. The two starting Lions props are miles behind?

davegrohl48

George North playing excellent stuff for Wales and is linking up very well with the other backs.
Jamie Roberts seems to be coming into some form and Scott Williams looks useful. Shane Williams should be back as well. Wales have finished with two games against minnows but I have to say their handling has looked excellent.
I think what could be Wales undoing is that their pack overall has less punch than ours. They don't have the forwards who can gain yards like Healy/Ferris/SOB. I think we can use the pack to work penalties in kickable positions and to get the odd drop goal. I think something akin to the Australia/Italy template Wales won't be able to cope with.