The Financial Crisis

SafeSurfer

The euro is on the brink. National governments throughout the world are forcing austerity measures on their citizens to prop up a rampant and unregulated international financial sector.

Yet there is hardly a peep about these events on this forum.

Why is that? Is an imminent alien invasion more probable than dark forces being afoot in our very real current crisis?

I would be interested in your opinion.

espinolman

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Why is that?

Maybe they all are too busy digging their underground bunkers and preparing to discuss it !

EarlERizer

espinolman wrote: »

Maybe they all are too busy digging their underground bunkers and preparing to discuss it !

I'm more inclined to think it's because people are sheeople

............that or they're just trapped in the belief that "everythings ok".... the majority of the worlds population has been 'dumbed down' and prep'd for whats happening today.

As has always been, it'll be too late when they all wake up!

As relevant today as it was in 76'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WINDtlPXmmE

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFvT_qEZJf8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5B1uF9gmkVw

Television,the drug of the nation!

paddyandy

Conspiracy theory is a business....$$$ books....tv...mag articles..advertising...€€€..££

Monty Burnz

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The euro is on the brink. National governments throughout the world are forcing austerity measures on their citizens to prop up a rampant and unregulated international financial sector.

Yet there is hardly a peep about these events on this forum.

It's been raised a few times, but it's a complex area. Those who think there's a conspiracy afoot can't explain how anyone is benefiting, or how such a situation could be deliberately engineered, and why the most powerful governments in the world have been powerless to sort the situation out to date.

It's a massive cock-up rather than a massive conspiracy.

enno99

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The euro is on the brink. National governments throughout the world are forcing austerity measures on their citizens to prop up a rampant and unregulated international financial sector.

Yet there is hardly a peep about these events on this forum.

Why is that? Is an imminent alien invasion more probable than dark forces being afoot in our very real current crisis?

I would be interested in your opinion.

What

you really dont know ?

Its all your fault
You are a whoremaster shoveling bags of powder up your nose and then you go groveling to the eu to bail you out

(see rothschilds will own ireland thread post 187)

Never mind if you are a family man who had to work and also send the wife out to work just so you could pay the over inflated price for a house so you can get your kids away from that drug infested crime ridden council estate or any other law abiding citizen trying to get ahead

You brought this on your self and your fellow country men

If it wasnt for Bankers and Politicians/developers the elite of our society making deals and saving us from ourselves.
God knows where it would have ended

Good luck with the future

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D97OxHZzBeQ

enno99

Monty Burnz wrote: »

It's been raised a few times, but it's a complex area. Those who think there's a conspiracy afoot can't explain how anyone is benefiting, or how such a situation could be deliberately engineered, and why the most powerful governments in the world have been powerless to sort the situation out to date.

It's a massive cock-up rather than a massive conspiracy.

Nice how everything can be squared away as a cock-up

Powerful governments who are powerless ?
Governments who are powerless. yes and have been for a long time

SafeSurfer

Monty Burnz wrote: »

It's been raised a few times, but it's a complex area. Those who think there's a conspiracy afoot can't explain how anyone is benefiting, or how such a situation could be deliberately engineered, and why the most powerful governments in the world have been powerless to sort the situation out to date.

It's a massive cock-up rather than a massive conspiracy.

Is it not common knowledge that hedge funds, the so called "Masters of the Universe" profit greatly by market volitility?

A hedge fund is a private, actively managed investment fund that utilizes sophisticated strategies in international and/or domestic markets designed to offset losses during a market downturn and/or generate returns higher than traditional stock and bond investments


Hedge funds utilize a wide array of investment strategies according to the goals of their managers and clients. Some investment strategies include Global macro, directional, event-driven, relative value (economics), and many others. Hedge funds are generally unsupervised by national regulatory agencies and, on occasion, have been accused of destabilizing various financial markets.

If Ireland could not adequately regulate its relatively small banking sector how can the most powerful governments be expected to control financial sectors of infinitely more complexity and influence?

Nation states, or I should say citizens of the nations states have rushed to prop up the rampant financial sector, so where does the real power lie?

There are private corporations that are too important to fail but not nation states that are too important to fail.

EarlERizer

Monty Burnz wrote: »

It's been raised a few times, but it's a complex area. Those who think there's a conspiracy afoot can't explain how anyone is benefiting, or how such a situation could be deliberately engineered, and why the most powerful governments in the world have been powerless to sort the situation out to date.

It's a massive cock-up rather than a massive conspiracy.

Ah there ya are Monty,what kept ya? it's not a conspiracy thread without your insightful debunkings

Jonny7

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Is it not common knowledge that hedge funds, the so called "Masters of the Universe" profit greatly by market volitility?

Yeah but its not a conspiracy theory, its just market theory. The world will slowly recover, we'll "learn our lesson" and the same thing will happen again in a decade or two, boom and bust, all part of capitalism.

Monty Burnz

enno99 wrote: »

Nice how everything can be squared away as a cock-up

History is a series of them. Don't take my word for it, crack open a book.

enno99 wrote: »

Powerful governments who are powerless ?
Governments who are powerless. yes and have been for a long time

What?

Monty Burnz

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Is it not common knowledge that hedge funds, the so called "Masters of the Universe" profit greatly by market volitility?

Not necessarily. Man Group are one of the largest managers of hedge funds in the world - and their shares are down 75% or so since the financial crisis began in 2007.

Or how about Goldman Sachs' Global Alpha fund?

BOSTON (TheStreet) -- The average hedge fund manager, who charges a 2% annual management fee and keeps 20% of any investment gains, is struggling to keep up with an idiot box known as an index mutual fund.

Hedge funds, on average, lost 2.3% of their value in August, bringing their performance this year to dead even. The S&P 500 Index, the benchmark for U.S. diversified mutual funds that's also a popular index fund and an exchange traded fund, fell 5.4% last month, producing a decline of 1.8% for the year.

And some fund managers, including renowned contrarian John Paulson, would be delighted with those returns, as the third quarter is turning into a hell hole for them.

Paulson's Advantage Plus hedge fund has lost 34% this year, according to an HSBC(HBC_) report, hurt by holdings in Bank of America(BAC_), Citigroup(C_), Hewlett-Packard(HPQ_) and, most recently, gold. Paulson became a star manager by going all-in on a bet against the housing market three years ago, earning him a reported $5 billion in one calendar year.

Goldman Sachs(GS_), Wall Street's most profitable investment bank, this month told investors it plans to close its Global Alpha hedge fund, the crown jewel of its so-called quantitative trading strategy, because of poor performance.

Only three of 10 hedge fund strategies posted positive performances in August. The most winning strategy this year is global macro, which gained 5.9% this year through August. The biggest loser was the multi-strategy category fund, which lost 6.8%. The performance data comes from the Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index, which tracks about 9,000 hedge funds with assets of $50 million or more.

Hedge funds performances have been volatile this year, a reflection of the world's economic uncertainties. For example, the Dow Jones Credit Suisse Hedge Fund Index gained 0.7% in July, with six of 10 sectors posting positive performances, but that was followed by the August decline. At mid-year, the index had posted a gain of 1.7%.

So the idea that market chaos suits hedge funds is clearly incorrect. People take their money out of the funds and stick it in gold or whatever they are more comfortable with, and the funds end up starved of capital. They don't have money to meet margin calls, so they have to get their bets right or they are in serious trouble.

SafeSurfer wrote: »

If Ireland could not adequately regulate its relatively small banking sector how can the most powerful governments be expected to control financial sectors of infinitely more complexity and influence?

Ireland's regulatory regime was more or less deliberately mismanaged by Fianna Failure - putting a clownish yes-man like Neary in charge was suicidal from an oversight perspective. From the point of view of getting every single possible euro of credit into the Irish property market, it was an outstanding success.

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Nation states, or I should say citizens of the nations states have rushed to prop up the rampant financial sector, so where does the real power lie?

Interesting point. With the citizens who carried out the rescue, or with the bank management and regulatory regimes that made it necessary?

SafeSurfer wrote: »

There are private corporations that are too important to fail but not nation states that are too important to fail.

Not true. Greece is borderline TBTF. Italy or Spain would be disatrous. USA, Japan - armageddon.

SafeSurfer

Jonny7 wrote: »

Yeah but its not a conspiracy theory, its just market theory. The world will slowly recover, we'll "learn our lesson" and the same thing will happen again in a decade or two, boom and bust, all part of capitalism.

I have no problem with the boom and bust which is all part of capitalism. What I do have a problem with is that in the boom part everybody is supposed to prosper while in the bust part everybody is supposed to suffer.

Yet currently in the bust part the nation states and citizen Joe suffers while the financial risk takers who made billions on their risk taking have their risks covered by citizen Joe. Moral hazard? If I buy a house betting I can pay it back and its value will rise but its value falls and I can't afford to pay it back I'm screwed. That's capitalism.

Yet if I lend someone the money to buy a house, also expecting to profit from the arrangment and I am not paid back, I am not screwed because citizen Joe's taxes will be increased to cover my losses even as he looses his home. That's not capitalism.

Monty Burnz

SafeSurfer wrote: »

I have no problem with the boom and bust which is all part of capitalism. What I do have a problem with is that in the boom part everybody is supposed to prosper while in the bust part everybody is supposed to suffer.

Yet currently in the bust part the nation states and citizen Joe suffers while the financial risk takers who made billions on their risk taking have their risks covered by citizen Joe. Moral hazard? If I buy a house betting I can pay it back and its value will rise but its value falls and I can't afford to pay it back I'm screwed. That's capitalism.

This is a huge problem and I can tell you it's a huge subject of concern for regulators and governments. Everybody recognises that the moral hazard that has been introduced is potentially disastrous come the next crash. The reintroduction of a form of Glass-Steagall seems to be one part of the solution:

On January 21, 2010, President Barack Obama proposed bank regulations similar to some parts of Glass–Steagall in limiting certain of banks' trading and investment capabilities. The proposal was dubbed "The Volcker Rule",[31] for Paul Volcker, who has been an outspoken advocate for the reimplementation of some aspects of Glass–Steagall[32] and who appeared with Obama at the press conference in support of the proposed regulations. However, in May 2010, Volcker, in an interview with BBC Business Editor Robert Peston, said he was not advocating a return to Glass–Steagall or a complete separation between investment and commercial banking.[33] In a May 2010 interview with Alternet, economist Nouriel Roubini described the "Volcker Rule" as insufficient and "essentially Glass–Steagall-Lite," allowing conflicts of interest to remain and for financial entities to become too big to fail, a model he described as a disaster, and stated, "We need to go all the way and implement the kind of restrictions between commercial banking and investment banking that existed under Glass–Steagall."[34]
In 2011 Representative Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) introduced H.R. 1489,[35] the "Return to Prudent Banking Act of 2011" to repeal certain provisions of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act and revive the separation between commercial banking and the securities business, in the manner provided in the Banking Act of 1933, the so-called "Glass-Steagall Act".
In Mainland Europe, notably in France, Germany, and Italy, an increasing number of think-tanks are calling for the adoption of stricter bank regulation through new national and EU-wide legislations based on the Glass–Steagall Act.

(from Wikipedia)

Another part of the solution would be breaking up the very big banks so that none are big enough to endanger the whole system. There are a couple of problems with this: banks merge to create efficiencies (for example you can run any realistic number of current accounts with one IT system, so if you merge 10 banks you can get rid of 9 systems, 9 sets of IT support, 9 sets of software licences, 9 sets of hardware costs, 9 back-up systems etc. etc.). Breaking up banks will create inefficiencies - costing bank shareholders money, and tying up resources that could be used elsewhere in the economy. Also, there would be huge lobbying from the financial industry to avoid this, and they've plenty of cash to throw at it. And when you consider that many people in the top management of the banks would be very well politically connected, you can see how it would be very difficult for Obama or whoever to push through huge reforms like this.

If you're interested in this area, I can recommend a load of papers.

enno99

Monty Burnz wrote: »

History is a series of them. Don't take my word for it, crack open a book.


What?

Originally Posted by Monty Burnz View Post
It's been raised a few times, but it's a complex area. Those who think there's a conspiracy afoot can't explain how anyone is benefiting, or how such a situation could be deliberately engineered, and why the most powerful governments in the world have been powerless to sort the situation out to date.

I was confused too

Keith186

Monty Burnz wrote: »

It's been raised a few times, but it's a complex area. Those who think there's a conspiracy afoot can't explain how anyone is benefiting, or how such a situation could be deliberately engineered, and why the most powerful governments in the world have been powerless to sort the situation out to date.

It's a massive cock-up rather than a massive conspiracy.

I'm not a conspiracy theorist but a little part of me believes this could've been engineered in order for the EU to be able to gain central control of the members finances which is sort of a possibility in the coming months.
The big part of me says this is too risky a manoeuvre! Plus, would these politicians have to do an initiation test to gain entry into the conspires realm? It doesn't add up.

Monty Burnz

enno99 wrote: »

Originally Posted by Monty Burnz View Post
It's been raised a few times, but it's a complex area. Those who think there's a conspiracy afoot can't explain how anyone is benefiting, or how such a situation could be deliberately engineered, and why the most powerful governments in the world have been powerless to sort the situation out to date.

I was confused too

You are struggling with the concept that the most powerful countries in the world may be powerless to do certain things?

So you think that the US government could force everyone to speak Mandarin Chinese? Or the British Government could stop global warming in its tracks?

enno99

Monty Burnz wrote: »

You are struggling with the concept that the most powerful countries in the world may be powerless to do certain things?

So you think that the US government could force everyone to speak Mandarin Chinese? Or the British Government could stop global warming in its tracks?

No Im struggling with the concept that you think these governments are not controlled by the Banks

You know when you inflate the big balloon the only people who dont sh!t themselves when it pops are the are the ones with the pin

SafeSurfer

Monty Burnz wrote: »

You are struggling with the concept that the most powerful countries in the world may be powerless to do certain things?

So you think that the US government could force everyone to speak Mandarin Chinese? Or the British Government could stop global warming in its tracks?

Well why do governments promise to halt global warming to +/- x degrees? It's just one more thing that government can make us believe they are doing something/have the power to do something about.

By the way do you think that the US government could force everyone invloved in the international airline industry to speak English?

SafeSurfer

QUOTE=Monty Burnz;74704189]Not necessarily. Man Group are one of the largest managers of hedge funds in the world - and their shares are down 75% or so since the financial crisis began in 2007.

Or how about Goldman Sachs' Global Alpha fund?

So the idea that market chaos suits hedge funds is clearly incorrect. People take their money out of the funds and stick it in gold or whatever they are more comfortable with, and the funds end up starved of capital. They don't have money to meet margin calls, so they have to get their bets right or they are in serious trouble.

Look at the history of hedge fund during the sub prime debacle even within your quoted reference .

. Paulson became a star manager by going all-in on a bet against the housing market three years ago, earning him a reported $5 billion in one calendar year.

Ireland's regulatory regime was more or less deliberately mismanaged by Fianna Failure - putting a clownish yes-man like Neary in charge was suicidal from an oversight perspective. From the point of view of getting every single possible euro of credit into the Irish property market, it was an outstanding success.

Is this not a similiar story to deliberate "light touch" regulation in other countries to keep the party rolling? Again look at US sub prime.

Monty Burnz

enno99 wrote: »

No Im struggling with the concept that you think these governments are not controlled by the Banks

They are not. Can you provide any evidence to prove otherwise?

enno99 wrote: »

You know when you inflate the big balloon the only people who dont sh!t themselves when it pops are the are the ones with the pin

But do you realise there has been carnage in the senior management of the banks? There's been a pretty big clear out of the guys at the top in the last 2 years - they are out of jobs. Unfortunately, due to the huge risks they took (that paid off for a couple of years) they are out of work with plenty of cash. It's the owners of the banks who have really suffered - the managers they trusted to run things have totally trashed their companies.

Monty Burnz

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Well why do governments promise to halt global warming to +/- x degrees? It's just one more thing that government can make us believe they are doing something/have the power to do something about.

Well if they could act in concert, and people were content with a lower standard of living, it probably could be done. It certainly can't be done by the US or any other country acting alone.

SafeSurfer wrote: »

By the way do you think that the US government could force everyone invloved in the international airline industry to speak English?

I've no idea if that's true, but if it is I'd wager it's because they alone comprise perhaps 25% of the world airline industry, and if a lingua franca is needed in any industry, English is going to be the choice. It's the same in academia - English is the international language of research. Go back 500 years and it was Latin.

All of which is a very long way from some powerful country deciding that everybody on the planet would have to switch to speaking Manadarin or Swahili in their homes...

Monty Burnz

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Look at the history of hedge fund during the sub prime debacle even within your quoted reference .

. Paulson became a star manager by going all-in on a bet against the housing market three years ago, earning him a reported $5 billion in one calendar year.

This is an example of a contrarian investor putting his money where his mouth is and reaping the benefits. If you bet big on something nobody else expects, you are going to win big.

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Is this not a similiar story to deliberate "light touch" regulation in other countries to keep the party rolling? Again look at US sub prime.

Yup. It's a combination of bad regulation and bad management by banks. As usual when this stuff comes up, I recommend that anyone interested read Black Swan by Taleb for an insight into how applying the wrong models can cost you a lot of money.

espinolman

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Well why do governments promise to halt global warming to +/- x degrees? It's just one more thing that government can make us believe they are doing something/have the power to do something about.

Have you never of chemtrails , if they can control the climate , what else ! - Your brain - cell phone towers . They want to make money digital so they can get more control of your brain , with the cell phone towers , thats what the financial crisis is really about , IMO .

jackiebaron

SafeSurfer wrote: »

The euro is on the brink. National governments throughout the world are forcing austerity measures on their citizens to prop up a rampant and unregulated international financial sector.

Yet there is hardly a peep about these events on this forum.

Why is that? Is an imminent alien invasion more probable than dark forces being afoot in our very real current crisis?

I would be interested in your opinion.

There's hardly a peep about it because people don't want to believe it. Same way as they are trying to convince themselves that their houses will be back up to 2006 value levels next year. :pac:

Murdoc90

If you haven't already watched 'Inside Job' you should.

paddyandy

There is no group of people in the world from any religious or political persuasion who have enough trust and stability in their ranks to make a Conspiracy workable.If there is which one?You would need wealth and power in those hands as well as Honour Trust cohesiveness a hierarchy of some sort to delegate.EVEN THE RENOWNED MAFIA can't hold a secret well enough to last a decade.Everything becomes a glass house in less than 2 decades.There are restricted versions but it's the Huge worldwide Publishing Houses that are presently fighting for their lives with the IT industries that love these sort of threads.Rumours are the Stuff of successful publishing.Look at any Bookstand.Look at the Fortunes spent on book covers to entice buyers.The publishing industry is Desperate at the moment make no mistake.

studiorat

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_veRCThylI0

SafeSurfer

paddyandy wrote: »

There is no group of people in the world from any religious or political persuasion who have enough trust and stability in their ranks to make a Conspiracy workable.If there is which one?You would need wealth and power in those hands as well as Honour Trust cohesiveness a hierarchy of some sort to delegate.EVEN THE RENOWNED MAFIA can't hold a secret well enough to last a decade.Everything becomes a glass house in less than 2 decades.There are restricted versions but it's the Huge worldwide Publishing Houses that are presently fighting for their lives with the IT industries that love these sort of threads.Rumours are the Stuff of successful publishing.Look at any Bookstand.Look at the Fortunes spent on book covers to entice buyers.The publishing industry is Desperate at the moment make no mistake.

A conspiracy doesn't necessarily have to be a secret.

http://olesiafx.com/Kathy-Lien-Day-Trading-The-Currency-Market/George-Soros-the-Man-Who-Broke-The-Bank-Of-England.html

The financial system is basically faith based. Based on confidence. Of course powerful hedge funds can attack businesses like banks or countires like Greece which they see as vulnerable. It's basically a massive game of bluff. The very institutions that are making these bets are safe in the knowlede that if they lose they will be bailed out by the citizens of the very countries they have bet against.

Jonny7

SafeSurfer wrote: »

A conspiracy doesn't necessarily have to be a secret.

http://olesiafx.com/Kathy-Lien-Day-Trading-The-Currency-Market/George-Soros-the-Man-Who-Broke-The-Bank-Of-England.html

The financial system is basically faith based. Based on confidence. Of course powerful hedge funds can attack businesses like banks or countires like Greece which they see as vulnerable. It's basically a massive game of bluff. The very institutions that are making these bets are safe in the knowlede that if they lose they will be bailed out by the citizens of the very countries they have bet against.

Like Lehman Bros?

SafeSurfer

Jonny7 wrote: »

Like Lehman Bros?

I think you will find that Lehman's exposure was to sub prime mortgage debt not sovereign debt.

If you have a point make it.

Monty Burnz

SafeSurfer wrote: »

A conspiracy doesn't necessarily have to be a secret.

http://olesiafx.com/Kathy-Lien-Day-Trading-The-Currency-Market/George-Soros-the-Man-Who-Broke-The-Bank-Of-England.html

The financial system is basically faith based. Based on confidence. Of course powerful hedge funds can attack businesses like banks or countires like Greece which they see as vulnerable. It's basically a massive game of bluff. The very institutions that are making these bets are safe in the knowlede that if they lose they will be bailed out by the citizens of the very countries they have bet against.

It's faith based, but so is almost every human institution. The Government, the law, currency - it only works because (most of us) put our faith in them. We accept cash from ATMs because we have faith that the supermarket will accept them.

The too-big-to-fail issue is a genuine problem - a cancer, in fact, as discussed already hereabouts. I hope the authorities have the balls to take action to resolve it.

Jonny7

SafeSurfer wrote: »

I think you will find that Lehman's exposure was to sub prime mortgage debt not sovereign debt.

If you have a point make it.

Almost everyone was exposed - Lehman Bros was not "saved" by the taxpayer - financial institutions at the time had no idea that they would be bailed out if they failed so didn't make policy based on that.