Rodeo 200 point turnover

rodeo1985

Hi All,

I'm a newbie to the site and have been really impressed with some of the threads on here (in particular PyRo's racing thread!), and so I've decided to set myself a challenge-turnover 200 points worth of sports bets and see what I can come out with.

This is over no particular time frame, and covers all sports markets available. I have a dual strategy, that being backing my own fancies, and also backing tips that others advise (I'll state after each bet if it's my own fancy or if I've taken it from elsewhere).

The idea is, I want to see if by using info that's freely available to all, and also by backing my own fancies, will I be able to generate any substantial profit. I believe if I can keep my own bets disciplined and use info provided by a select few who I think are on the ball, I'll be able to generate a substantial profit, so we'll see how it goes...

To avoid duplicating another thread, I will state here that I do follow PyRo's racing thread and bet on all his picks to the stakes advised. I'll add this in to the running total every couple of days and state when I do so.

Please feel free to leave any comments, tips, advise etc...!

Thanks all,
Rodeo

markc91

Good luck

rodeo1985

Bet 1
Romania +22 vs Argentina 3pts @10/11 (advised by LightningBolt - http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056341906&page=3)

Bet 2, 3 & 4 [mentioning as prices have changed between time advised by PyRo and time I backed, also ammended point advice too. Otherwise I'll back every day as advised by Pyro and add to running total each Friday]

2:30 Haydock - Lunar Phase - 1pt e/w @ 7's
4:30 Haydock - King Zeal - 3pts @ 10/3
Double on both - 1/2 pt e/w

Both advised by Pyro-http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055794950&page=375

Points in Bank = 191
Points in Play = 9
Points Turned Over = 9

rodeo1985

Bet 5
Georgia +18 v Scotland 3pts @ eves (bet365)

Points in Bank = 188
Points in Play = 12
Points Turned Over = 12

rodeo1985

Bet 2, 3 & 4

2:30 Haydock - Lunar Phase - 1pt e/w @ 7's
4:30 Haydock - King Zeal - 3pts @ 10/3
Double on both - 1/2 pt e/w
Lose

Points in Bank = 188
Points in Play = 6
Points Turned Over = 12

rodeo1985

Bet 6
Tonga v Canada Under 43, 2pts@eves (bet365)

As advised by DailyNaps - http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056321556&page=3

Points in Bank = 186
Points in Play = 8
Points Turned Over = 12

rodeo1985

Bet 7

RWC 2011 Matches Accum
Georgia +17.0 @ 1/1
Romania +22.0 @ 10/11
Australia -11.0 @ 10/11
Japan +56.0 @ 10/11
Tonga -7.0 @ 1/1

.5pt@~26/1

Probably the type of bet I should be avoiding, but I like sticking on bets like these at very small stakes just for a bit of interest. Just went with them based on gut feeling, no in-depth analysis done!

Points in Bank = 185.5
Points in Play = 8.5
Points Turned Over = 12.5

rodeo1985

Bet 8

Namibia +32 v Samoa 3pts@eves (bet365)

Namibia showed they can score, putting 25 points on the board against Fiji, and tomorrow face a similar side in Samoa. I think they'll stick with a similar kicking tactic tomorrow, which in the last game saw out-half Theuns Kotze kick 3 drop goals and 2 penalties.

From Samoa's point of view, the best they can realistically achieve in this group is 2nd place, and they'll see their biggest rivals as Wales, who they will face 4 days after tomorrows encounter. With that in mind, I think if Samoa do put this match to bed at any stage, their coach will look to make changes and rest their stronger players for the Wales match, which will at least in theory, keep the gap in scores somewhat close. If they don't steam ahead well then they aren't going to win by 31 anyway, so that's good enough for me!

Points in Bank = 182.5
Points in Play = 11.5
Points Turned Over = 15.5

LightningBolt

I know I said I wasn't going to bet on Tongan game but see here Think the Canadians have a good chance of winning with the handicap at 7.

rodeo1985

LightningBolt wrote: »

I know I said I wasn't going to bet on Tongan game but see here Think the Canadians have a good chance of winning with the handicap at 7.

Cheers for that. Read your tips and as you'll see above I agree with your Namibia and Romania picks, like the Georgia line too but mostly because I see Scotland as abit weak. After some analysis I agreed with your original opinion that 7 is about right for the Tonga Canada one, too hard to call so I'm steering clear. Have Tonga -7 in a very small accum, but really only added them as my initial thoughts were for Tonga, and the stake is very small! Should be an interesting mornings viewing, best of luck with your picks!

rodeo1985

Bet 9

I know I said I wasn't going to back the game, but after LightningBolt's analysis and comments I had another look. Canada +7 does seem good value, I've actually given this one a handicap of 1-2 points. Also going to have a small cover on the h'cap draw.

Canada +7 v Tonga, 1.8pts@eves (bet365)
Handicap Draw, .2pts@16's (bet365)

Thanks again LightningBolt.

Points in Bank = 180.5
Points in Play = 13.5
Points Turned Over = 17.5

rodeo1985

Bet 10

4.30 Yarmouth - Almagest, 2pts@13/8 (coral)

Points in Bank = 178.5
Points in Play = 15.5
Points Turned Over = 19.5

rodeo1985

Bet 5
Georgia +18 v Scotland 3pts @ eves (bet365)
Win
+3pts

Bet 6
Tonga v Canada Under 43, 2pts@eves (bet365)
Lose
Not far off here, match ended with 45 points scores.
-2pts

Bet 7
RWC 2011 Matches Accum
Georgia +17.0 @ 1/1
Romania +22.0 @ 10/11
Australia -11.0 @ 10/11
Japan +56.0 @ 10/11
Tonga -7.0 @ 1/1

.5pt@~26/1
Lose
-.5pt

Bet 8
Namibia +32 v Samoa 3pts@eves (bet365)
Lose
-3pts

Bet 9
Canada +7 v Tonga, 1.8pts@eves (bet365)
Win
Handicap Draw, .2pts@16's (bet365)
Lose
+1.8pts


Points in Bank = 188.1
Points in Play = 5
Points Turned Over = 19.5

rodeo1985

Bet 10

4.30 Yarmouth - Almagest, 2pts@13/8 (coral)
Lose

Points in Bank = 188.1
Points in Play = 3
Points Turned Over = 19.5

rodeo1985

Bet 11

PyRo's "other" selection.

3.20 Ayr Breakheart 1pt@15's

Points in Bank = 187.1
Points in Play = 4
Points Turned Over = 20.5

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

Bet 1
Romania +22 vs Argentina 3pts @10/11

Not as keen on this one anymore, so going to reduce my stake in it by backing Argentina -20. I've written a spreadsheet based on scores so far in the WC and each team's official ratings. I pretty much work out my own handicaps on the games and back the most favorable position based on the figures I've generated. There is a probability assigned to each outcome being achieved and for this game I've the handicap at 18.25, so am still taking a position in Romania +22, however the probability of the outcome being achieved is on the lower side at 55.89%, so I wanted to reduce my stake to 1pt.

Bet 12

Argentina -20, 2pts@ eves

Points in Bank = 185.1
Points in Play = 6
Points Turned Over = 22.5

rodeo1985

Bet 13

Russia +8, 2pts@eve's (bet365)

I've put the handicap for this one at around 4-5 points. The USA are also just off the back of a very physical game against Ireland and will still be feeling the effects. I get the impression from the below extract that the Russians aren't just here to make up the numbers, and will see the USA game as a very winnable one. The article also mentions that the Russians were in New Plymouth for a training camp back in January, again indicating how serious the Russians are taking the tourney.

Not only is this their World Cup debut, against the most emotive of opponents, but the game is being shown live on Network TV in Russia – not just the sports channels – and just to up the ante further, Deputy Prime Minister Alexandre Zhukov, Vladamir Putin’s right hand man, has travelled to New Plymouth to support the team for this fixture.
Zhukov is a huge player politically and in Russian sport, being both chairman of the Russian Olympic Committee and organiser in chief of the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics. Nor is he just a fair weather rugby fan, he has been a steadfast supporter of Russian rugby in the corridors of power for years.
With rugby included in the 2016 and 2020 Olympics – and possibly well beyond that – it is Zhukov who had been able to get the go ahead to direct central funds towards the construction of nine regional rugby stadiums, averaging 6-8000 capacity – which will be dedicated rugby centres around which the embryo professional league in Russia can be expanded.
-http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/rugbyunion/rugby-world-cup/8760555/Rugby-World-Cup-2011-Russia-hope-superpower-struggle-with-US-will-act-as-a-springboard-for-union-back-home.html

Points in Bank = 183.1
Points in Play = 8
Points Turned Over = 24.5

rodeo1985

Bet 14

Accum, PyRo's 3 tips, .5pt e/w@~550/1

Points in Bank = 182.1
Points in Play = 9
Points Turned Over = 25.5

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

Bet 13

Russia +8, 2pts@eve's (bet365)

Win


Points in Bank = 187.1
Points in Play = 6
Points Turned Over = 24.5

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

Bet 14

Accum, PyRo's 3 tips, .5pt e/w@~550/1

Lose
However another profitable day again for PyRo, will add his count into the bank after tomorrows selections have run.

Points in Bank = 187.1
Points in Play = 5
Points Turned Over = 24.5

rodeo1985

Bet 15

.5pt e/w double on PyRo's 2 selections

Points in Bank = 186.1
Points in Play = 6
Points Turned Over = 25.5

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

Bet 15
.5pt e/w double on PyRo's 2 selections

Lose


Points in Bank = 186.1
Points in Play = 5
Points Turned Over = 25.5

rodeo1985

Adding in PyRo's selections the bank looks a lot healthier:D!

Points in Bank = 222.6
Points in Play = 5
Points Turned Over = 48.5

Thank you PyRo, you are a genius!

rodeo1985

Bet 16

Double - Man Utd & Man City to win, 2pts

Bet 17

Australia v Ire, score between 34-44 inc 1.5pts@2/1 (bet365)

Points in Bank = 219.1
Points in Play = 8.5
Points Turned Over = 52

rodeo1985

Bet 18

2.15 Ayr, Ginger Ted .5pt e/w @25/1

Pyro's "other" selection.

Points in Bank = 218.1
Points in Play = 9.5
Points Turned Over = 53

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

Bet 17

Australia v Ire, score between 34-44 inc 1.5pts@2/1 (bet365)

Lose


Although I can't say that I amn't an extremely happy man with that result!

Points in Bank = 218.1
Points in Play = 8
Points Turned Over = 53

rodeo1985

Bet 19

1.45 Newmaket, Gathering. 2pts@7/2


Bet 20

Accum, Pyro's 3 plus the above (Gathering) .25pt e/w

Points in Bank = 216.6
Points in Play = 10.5
Points Turned Over = 55.5

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

Bet 1
Romania +22 vs Argentina 3pts @10/11 (advised by LightningBolt - http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056341906&page=3)

Lose


Points in Bank = 216.6
Points in Play = 7.5
Points Turned Over = 55.5

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

Bet 12

Argentina -20, 2pts@ eves

Win


Points in Bank = 220.6
Points in Play = 5.5
Points Turned Over = 55.5

rodeo1985

rodeo1985 wrote: »

Win


Points in Bank = 187.1
Points in Play = 6
Points Turned Over = 24.5

Figures are wrong here, bank should read 186.1. So as it now currently stands:

Points in Bank = 219.6
Points in Play = 5.5
Points Turned Over = 55.5

rodeo1985

Bet 21

Georgia +36 v England, 2pts@eves.

Bet 22

Wales v Samoa tie, 1/2 pt@25's

Bet 23

Samoa +8 v Wales, 3pts@eves

Bet 24

Possibly my heart ruling my head, but I think the Dub's have a great shout and 7/4 looks too big.

Dublin to bt Kerry, 2pts@7/4

Points in Bank = 212.1
Points in Play = 13
Points Turned Over = 63