Observational football & horses log.

lamoss

football

What I am trying to do here is to find a formula to pick regular winning football bets over the season.
The total stakes wont be large and would consist of a number of smaller bets adding up to around € 20 or so at the weekend and possibly a smaller bet in the week.

I will be concentrating my efforts mainly in the Championship, L1 , L2, and not so much in the premiership. I will also take some picks from the Scottish leauges as well.
The bets will be singles, doubles, trebles, and small accums. they will cover win-draw-win and over/under 2.5 goals.
I will be looking for a bit of value and will try not to include too many "shortie " prices. I am hoping to pick up around € 20- € 30 If any of the bets come up.:rolleyes:
I wont be doing long write ups or reasoning, just the odd line or two.

As the log name suggests the selections are made from observations of team performances on a week to week basis.

Horses

I will be following a similar line of thought as the football bets, trying for a bit of value.
I will only be picking a few horses, usually at the weekends as the racing is of better quality. Some weeks I might not pick any, if I cant get inspiration!

I hope I dont jinx my bets by posting on here

Selections to follow in next post :pac:

Derek!

Good luck with the log

lamoss

Now down to business ! lets see if we can get a couple of crisp € 20 notes from P/P.

Blackpool over 2.5 goals = 8/11
cardiff over 2.5 goals = 4/6
Southhampton over 2.5 goals = 10/11
€ 4 treble pays approx € 21
...........................................

West ham over 2.5 goals= 8/11
charlton over 2.5 goals = 8/11
Bournemouth under 2.5 goals = 11/10
€ 4 treble pays approx € 24
..............................................

Sheff wed 11/8
Brentford 11/8
€ 4 double pays approx € 22
...........................................
Bornemouth 23/10
Bury 23/10
€ 2 draw double
........................
Cheltenham 23/10
Oxford 23/10
€ 2 draw double
....................
Bornemouth 23/10
Bury 23/10
Cheltenham 23/10
Oxford 23/10
€ 1 draw accum.
.............................

lamoss

A couple of horse I fancy.

Seville 3.40 Don 15/2 , Should go close on better ground then last time
€ 2 e/w

Berling 3.30 chester 3/1 € 3 win won well over the same course last time, worth a punt.

lamoss

A couple of horse I fancy.

Seville 3.40 Don 15/2 , Should go close on better ground then last time
€ 2 e/w

Berling 3.30 chester 3/1 € 3 win won well over the same course last time, worth a punt.

Both of these let me down ........We will try again later.
...........................................................................................................

Now down to business ! lets see if we can get a couple of crisp € 20 notes from P/P.

Blackpool over 2.5 goals = 8/11
cardiff over 2.5 goals = 4/6 Lost
Southhampton over 2.5 goals = 10/11
€ 4 treble pays approx € 21
...........................................

West ham over 2.5 goals= 8/11
charlton over 2.5 goals = 8/11 Lost
Bournemouth under 2.5 goals = 11/10
€ 4 treble pays approx € 24
..............................................

Sheff wed 11/8
Brentford 11/8 Win
€ 4 double pays approx € 22
...........................................
Bornemouth 23/10
Bury 23/10 Lost
€ 2 draw double
........................
Cheltenham 23/10
Oxford 23/10 Lost
€ 2 draw double
....................
Bornemouth 23/10
Bury 23/10
Cheltenham 23/10 Lost
Oxford 23/10
€ 1 draw accum.
.............................

The football bet wins overall . € 17 staked , € 22.50 won, up € 5.50 on the day ! A bag of werthers original toffees for me out of me winnings :cool:

lamoss

Rotherham 8/5
Afc Wimbledon 11/10
Crawley 8/11
€ 3 win treble pays approx € 28
....................................................................................................

All games below under 2.5 goals

Yeovil 8/11
leyton 4/5
walsall 8/11
Hereford 8/11
€ 3 accum pays approx € 27
.........................................................................................................
All prices from Boylesports.

Both losers

lamoss

For saturday.

West Brom 17/10 € 8 win pays approx €22
..................................................................................................

Aston villa 5/2
wolves 23/10
€ 2 draw double pays approx € 23
...............................................................................................

Cheltenham 5/2
Bradford 4/1
€ 2 win double Pays approx € 35 " pure speculation double" reasoning to follow if it wins
................................................................................................

morecambe 17/10
Hereford 2/1
€3 win double pays approx € 24
..............................................................................................

All games below under 2.5 goals.

Falkirk 4/5
walsall 10/11
wycombe/4/6
Yeovil 5/6

€ 3 accum pays approx € 31 .



For sunday

Birmingham to win @ 7/2 stake depends on how my other bets do on saturday

All odds from paddy power .

lamoss

lamoss wrote: »

For saturday.

West Brom 17/10 € 8 win pays approx €22
..................................................................................................

Aston villa 5/2
wolves 23/10
€ 2 draw double pays approx € 23
...............................................................................................

Cheltenham 5/2
Bradford 4/1
€ 2 win double Pays approx € 35 " pure speculation double" reasoning to follow if it wins
................................................................................................

morecambe 17/10
Hereford 2/1
€3 win double pays approx € 24
..............................................................................................

All games below under 2.5 goals.

Falkirk 4/5
walsall 10/11
wycombe/4/6
Yeovil 5/6

€ 3 accum pays approx € 31 .



For sunday

Birmingham to win @ 7/2 stake depends on how my other bets do on saturday

All odds from paddy power .

No winners off this bet Lost € 18
Did not back Birmingham on sunday as my luck had deserted me

lamoss

Trying an experimental bet today,based on a patent with over 2.5 goal accums.
All odds from P/P.

Acc A

celtic 2/5
dundee 1/1
brechin 8/13
alloa 8/13
€ 3 accum
....................................................................................................

Acc B

chelsea 4/9
liverpool 4/6
stoke 8/11
€ 5 treble
.....................................................................................................

Acc C

charlton 4/6
bury 8/11
huddersfield 4/5
sheff wed 8/11
€ 3 accum
..................................................................................................

3 x € 1 doubles

Acc. AB
Acc AC
Acc BC
..................................................................................................

1 x € 2 treble
Accs A B C

Total bet € 16.

Any 1 up and you have your money back with a small profit
Any 2 up and you have nice return.
All 3 up and your in clover

lamoss

lamoss wrote: »

Trying an experimental bet today,based on a patent with over 2.5 goal accums.
All odds from P/P.

Acc A

celtic 2/5
dundee 1/1
brechin 8/13
alloa 8/13
€ 3 accum
....................................................................................................

Acc B

chelsea 4/9
liverpool 4/6
stoke 8/11
€ 5 treble
.....................................................................................................

Acc C

charlton 4/6
bury 8/11
huddersfield 4/5
sheff wed 8/11
€ 3 accum
..................................................................................................

3 x € 1 doubles

Acc. AB
Acc AC
Acc BC
..................................................................................................

1 x € 2 treble
Accs A B C

Total bet € 16.

Any 1 up and you have your money back with a small profit
Any 2 up and you have nice return.
All 3 up and your in clover

very unlucky this week, came close to getting 2 accums up.I am not a million miles away from getting some returns.........worth another shot I think

lamoss

I did not win overall this month but I came close on quiet a few occasions.
Overall not a bad effort.

Football
Total bet € 57
Total won €€22.50

Total loss for month - € 34.50 .

Horses

Total bets only € 7
Total loss € 7

I did not have many horse bets as their was not a lot I fancied.I have to agree with Pyro that the quailty of racing has been poor of late.
This is not a good time to go mad on horses now as the end of the flat is near and trainers and owners are keen to get a last run in now before the season ends. Lots of maidens and larger fields and unsuitable going makes it harder to pick winners.
I will keep an eye out for emerging N/H horses now as these trainers are now starting to get their runners fit for the good meetings around the christmas period.

lamoss

Saturday football.

Montrose 13/8
Elgin 15/8.
€ 3 win double.
....................................................................................................
over 2.5 goals.
Inverness 6/5
Livingstone 4/5
Arbroath 2/5
Berwick 4/9

€ 3 accum
.......................................................................................................
All to Draw

A.villa 14/5
Sunderland 9/4
Wolves 11/5
3 x € 3 doubles
1 x € 3 treble.

€ 18 total staked
prices from boylesports coupon. (over/ unders from p/p website)

lamoss

lamoss wrote: »

Saturday football.

Montrose 13/8
Elgin 15/8.
€ 3 win double.
....................................................................................................
over 2.5 goals.
Inverness 6/5
Livingstone 4/5
Arbroath 2/5
Berwick 4/9

€ 3 accum
.......................................................................................................
All to Draw

A.villa 14/5
Sunderland 9/4
Wolves 11/5
3 x € 3 doubles
1 x € 3 treble.

€ 18 total staked
prices from boylesports coupon. (over/ unders from p/p website)

The top double came in pays € 22.60
Unlucky with the draw doubles, only 1 up.

€ 4.60 profit for this week. :cool:

lamoss

Going to try the patent type bet again. all over 2.5 goals.

Bet A
Aberdeen 1/1
Dundee 6/5
Brechin 4/7
€ 3 treble

---

Bet B
Hartlepool 4/5
Stevenage 8/11
Yeovil 10/11
€ 3 treble

---

Bet C
Afc wimbledon 8/13
Dagenham 1/1
Southend 4/5
€ 3 treble

---

3 x € 2 doubles
AB
AC
BC
1x € 1 treble ABC.

---

---

chesterfield 6/4
Barnet 7/4
€ 3 win double

Ayr 19/10
Morton 11/8

€ 3 win double.
€ 1 accum all 4 teams

so near again ! let down by 1 in each bet for overs 2.5.........thats gambling:p Lost € 23 this week .

lamoss

Going for a patent again with draws for a bit of interest tonight. all prices from boylesports coupon.

Bet A
crystal palace 5/2
Reading 5/2
€ 1 draw double.

---

Bet B
Millwall 9/4
Nott forrest 9/4
€ 1 draw double

---

Bet C
Peterboro 9/4
Leeds 13/5
€ 1 draw double.

---

3 x € 1 draw doubles AB AC BC
1 x € 1 draw treble.
€ 7 staked.

Unlucky again ! 1 draw up in each double Got an idea for a "conservative bet" for saturday

lamoss

I have had so many near misses lately its driving me mad.There must be a way of getting some value. I think I might have found something.
The bets below are 2 singles and a double, but the reasoning behind them is based on Fryens ratio betting in the horse/greyhound racing sub-thread '/fancies for today.
What you do is to have a single on each game which will cover all of your stakes in the bet.........you just stake enough on the single to get your money back, then with the extra few cents you put on the double you will get about 20% extra on the winning double if it comes up.;) Her go,s

All prices boylesports coupon.

All Draw bets

Coventry 11/5
Hull 5/2
€ 2 .20 single each
€ 2.60 Double

---

Oldham 12/5
Tranmere 12/5
€ 2.20 single each
€ 2.60 Double

---

Plymouth 9/4
Crewe 9/4
€ 2.20 single on each
€ 2.60 Double
.......................................................................

Each bet is € 7 € 21 staked.

---

A pure mad accum , all under 2.5 goals in the championship ( come in twice already )
Peterboro
blackpool
cardiff
coventry
Hull
ipswich
leicester
middlesboro
portsmouth
reading

€ 1 accum all under 2.5 goals must pay over 200/1.

lamoss

Me lucks out at the moment so a few doubles for small stakes.
Draw doubles.

Bet A
watford 12/5
burnley 23/10
€ 1 single each € 1 double

---

Bet B
Millwall 23/10
Wycombe 5/2
€ 1 single each €1 Double

---

Bet C
Walsall 12/5
Barnet 23/10
€ 1 single each € 1 double

---

Bet D
Morcambe 23/10
oxford 5/2
€ 1 single each € 1 double.

---

6 x € 1 accums.
AB AC AD BC BD CD.
1X € 1 Accum. A B C D.

---

---

One horse I like the look of is Quinz, 3.40 Ascot 15/2.
Will have him e/w .
Phillip Hobbs stable picked up a couple of good races last week and he targets high value races, so worth a shot I think.

All prices P/P.

lamoss

Not 1 result right anywhwere ^^
My lucks way....way out !
I suggest anyone doing the same teams/ bets as me use it as an anti-bet !
Do the compleate opposite to my forcasts.

The horse bet I thought would at least place,but their was something wrong with the horse........never got into the race and was running close to last and was pulled up.

Oh well it goes like this sometimes, when your down you can only go up (hopefully ).........We shall carry on

lamoss

As like so many others keeping logs I came close so many times it hurts

Losses for october , Football € 94
1 win € 22.60
loss =€ 71.40.

Horses loss only € 6.

For November just going to do Draws in singles , doubles and small accums.
Going to bet conservatvely and try to limit losses :rolleyes:

lamoss

All prices P/P. all selections to draw.

Bet A

Bournemouth 12/5
Chesterfield 23/10

€ 1.30 single each
€ 1.40 double

---

Bet B
Acc, Stanley 23/10
Crewe 23/10
€ 1.30 single each
€ 1.40 double

---

Bet C
Falkirk 5/2
Albion rovs 12/5
€ 1.30 single each
€ 1.40 double.

---

3 x € 1 accums AB AC BC
1x € 1 accum ABC
= € 4 staked.

The object of this type of betting is to save lost stakes , yet if 2 of the doubles come up I will get a good payout.
Any 1 single up pays just over € 4 so if you get 1 up in each double you get your money back for that bet.
1 double up pays about € 22 (inc the 2 singles) so it will pay for the whole bet with a small profit left .
This is a bread and butter bet with the chance of big pay-outs if the 3 doubles come in. The way my luck is lately I will stick to this type of bet untill my luck turns.:rolleyes:

---

No horses for me today.......as I jinxed P.Hobbs last week.

lamoss

My woes continue.......... chesterfield single pays € 4.29

Loss limited to € 11.71 on the day.........better than a kick in the nuts ! :P

lamoss

Staying with the draw bets!

Bet A
Macclesfield 9/4
Walsall 23/10
€ 1.30 single on each
€ 1.40 double

---

Bet B
Reading 23/10
Bradford 11/5
€ 1.30 single each
€ 1.40 double

---

Bet C
Wycombe 23/10
Barnsley 23/10
€ 1.30 single each
€ 1.40 double.
..........................................................................................

3x €1 doubles bets AB AC BC
1X € 1 accum bets ABC .

---

Good racing today I will see what some of the others are posting and then decide.:pac:

lamoss

Macclesfield draws at 9/4 = € 4.22

loss this week €11.78

lamoss

Last week of the draw bets, something new next week

Bet A
Oxford 12/5
Brechin 5/2
€ 1.30 single each
€ 1.40 double

---

Bet B
Doncaster 23/10
Rochdale 23/10
€ 1.30 single each
€ 1.40 double

---

Bet C
Blackpool 23/10
Exeter 23/10
€ 1.30 single each
€ 1.40 double

---

Bet D
Plymouth 23/10
St Johnstone 9/4
€ 1.30 single each
€ 1.40 double

---

6x € 1 Doubles AB AC AD BC BD CD
1X € 1 Accum ADCD.

---

All prices P/P coupon.

lamoss

Doncaster and blackpool both drew so a € 4.29 return on each single bet, = € 8.58 back.

Staked € 23 on bet above ^^^ minus €8.58 return = €14.42 loss

lamoss

The draw bets were not too bad, no big winners but a little something back each week helped to keep losses down.

Total bet €55
Total back € 17.09

Loss € 37.91.

Will do this type of bet again.

---

Horses

As the NH season steps up a gear it seems that the good races are getting cherry picked by the "Big Boys".
Pipe.......King... P Nicholls......D mc Cain......Henderson .......Hobbs.
I was looking at the autumn sales recently and these trainers are paying out some big money on new horses for their yards, these guys are cleaning up the most at the moment.:pac: Their horses are worth keeping an eye on if they offer value.

lamoss

I have often fancied a bet but could not decide on what way to do it. How often are you torn between doing a win bet or an overs or unders bet ?
For my next betting challenge I am going to do a bet which will try to cover both aspects I call this bet The Double chance Here goes.........

Match win odds overs 2.5 odds.
Bet A
Berwick 8/11 4/5
Arbroath 3/4 4/7
Queenspark 10/11 4/5

€ 4 treble all to win...........€ 4 treble all to be over 2.5 goals

---

Match win odds overs 2.5 odds.
Bet B
Leyton or 10/11 4/6
Hearts 1/1 5/4
Southend 11/10 4/5

€ 4 treble all to win...........€ 4 treble all to be over 2.5 goals

---

€2 treble bet A+B all to win
€2 treble bet A+B all to be over 2.5 goals.

lamoss

That was a loser the week before last ^^^ No bet last week as I was forced to go shopping

lamoss

Same bet as before, all prices P/P.

Bet A

Match... win . odds... overs 2.5 odds.
Carlise...8/11...............4/6
Charlton...8/13............4/6
Peterboro...8/11...........4/7.
€ 4 treble all to win..........€ 4 treble all over 2.5 goals

Bet B

Match... win. odds... overs 2.5 odds.
Burton......8/11................4/5
Plymouth......8/11...........4/5
Rotherham.....8/11...........8/11.

€ 4 treble all to win..........€ 4 treble all over 2.5 goals

€2 treble bet A+B all to win
€2 treble bet A+B all to be over 2.5 goals.

lamoss

Another loser ^^^^. I was hoping for the overs to come in, but it was not to be!

This week was bad for overs , the majority of results were under 2.5 goals. Only 2 out of 10 games in the championship were over 2.5 goals. Sudays games were just as bad , not 1 game over 2.5 in the 6 games played

Oh well it,s christmas soon :pac:

lamoss

Lots of football to come over the next 4 days ,so I will just have a smaller bet each day.

Tranmere 11/5
Dagenham 23/10
Hereford 23/10

All to draw......3x€1 doubles , 1x€1treble.

Added liverpool to draw as well @ 11/4 in a seperate 4 fold
Tranmere 11/5
Dagenham 23/10
Hereford 23/10

€1 accum.

Only 1 draw.............bah humbug !