Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

RWC 2011 Handicaps

  • 08-09-2011 8:45pm
    #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭


    Going to set the handicap myself for every match and bet accordingly, not allowed look what the handicaps are with the bookies before I have mine done. Will keep two different staking plans - one to level stakes and the other will be the difference between my handicap and bookies' handicap.


    Match 1.
    New Zealand -52.5 v Tonga +52.5


    So the bet is Tonga +60 @ evens (Generally)
    1pt win and 7.5pts win.

    Tongans will have huge support here and I'm confident.


Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,014 ✭✭✭Soarer


    There was something I read yesterday where, in the last 12 RWC matches where the handicap has been 30 points or greater, 8 of the 12 results favoured the whipping boys!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Soarer wrote: »
    There was something I read yesterday where, in the last 12 RWC matches where the handicap has been 30 points or greater, 8 of the 12 results favoured the whipping boys!
    Yep matches are usually tighter than people think and top teams resting players could contribute to that too. Edit: Just realised I'm going for three of the favs tomorrow :cool:


    Match 2.
    Scotland v Romania +34.5

    Bet: Scotland -33 Evens Paddy Power
    1pt win or 1.5pt win.

    Match 3.
    Fiji v Namibia +34.5

    Bet: Fiji -29 Evens Ladbrokes
    1pt win or 5.5pt win.


    Match 4.
    France v Japan +49.5

    Bet: France -41 Evens Paddy Power
    1pt win or 8.5pts win.


    Match 5.
    England v Argentina +9.5

    Bet: Argentina +14 Evens Ladbrokes
    1pt win or 4.5pts win.


    Will have to look out for the Pacific Island teams this month going on Tonga's performance today, they have a big home advantage here!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    match 6
    Ireland v Usa + 20.5
    Bet: usa + 35 evens 888sport

    1pt or 14.5 pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Running Totals:

    Level Stakes - 0 profit
    Handicap Staking - 11.5pts profit


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Samoa v Namibia +32.5
    Bet: Samoa -31 evens Ladbrokes

    1pt or 1.5pts


    Tonga v Canada +14.5
    Bet: Tonga -6 Evens Paddy Power

    1pt or 8.5pts


    Scotland v Georgia +13.5
    Bet: Georgia +18 Evens Will Hills

    1pt or 4.5pts


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Running Totals:

    Level Stakes - 1pt profit
    Handicap Staking - 9pts profit


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    USA v Russia +5.5
    Bet: Russia +9 Evens Will Hill

    1pt or 3.5pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Running Totals:

    Level Stakes - 2pts profit
    Handicap Staking - 12.5pts profit


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    New Zealand v Japan +65.5pts
    Bet: New Zealand -53 Evens Ladbrokes

    1pt or 12.5pts


    I think we're set for our first big hammering of the tournament, Japan are focusing on later games against Tonga and Canada and have made 10 changes to the side that lost to France. Ten tries??


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,639 ✭✭✭LightningBolt


    I'm still not sure about this bet. I can see New Zealand running in nine or ten tries alright seeing as it's a relatively full strength team bar Carter and McCaw against a weakened Japanese side. The influence Carter has on New Zealand's ability to score when attacking is huge in my opinion, not only that his goalkicking can be the difference between beating/losing the line.

    The main thing that is makes me think they will beat the handicap is the fact that there is a huge game against the French in a weeks time. There's places up for grabs so you can be sure every single player on the pitch will want to play to the end an run up a score.

    I've got the line between 50-65 depending on certain situations. I'll make a last minute call on it I think...


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    I'm still not sure about this bet. I can see New Zealand running in nine or ten tries alright seeing as it's a relatively full strength team bar Carter and McCaw against a weakened Japanese side. The influence Carter has on New Zealand's ability to score when attacking is huge in my opinion, not only that his goalkicking can be the difference between beating/losing the line.

    The main thing that is makes me think they will beat the handicap is the fact that there is a huge game against the French in a weeks time. There's places up for grabs so you can be sure every single player on the pitch will want to play to the end an run up a score.

    I've got the line between 50-65 depending on certain situations. I'll make a last minute call on it I think...
    I hope you made the call LightningBolt!


    Running Totals:

    Level Stakes +3pts
    Handicap Staking +25pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Australia v Ireland +7.5
    Bet: Ireland +12 Evens Will Hill

    1pt or 4.5pts


    Argentina v Romania +16.5
    Bet: Romania +21 Evens Will Hill

    1pt or 4.5pts


    South Africa v Fiji +10.5
    Bet: Fiji +22 Evens Ladbrokes

    1pt or 11.5pts


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Lads could be missing something here but PP are offering Ireland +22 V Oz. I think thats a cracker. What ye all think? Am i just being patriotic?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Is that at evens CriticEyes? If so it's a mistake on their part, back it and hope for the best but don't be aggrieved if they void it.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 964 ✭✭✭CriticEyes


    Dailynaps wrote: »
    Is that at evens CriticEyes? If so it's a mistake on their part, back it and hope for the best but don't be aggrieved if they void it.


    Its 11/10 +22 and i have it in a treble with Romania on the + and Fiji on the +. Lets see what happens anyway. It didn't last long at 22 anyway id say no more than 2/3 mins after i had noticed it anyway.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,639 ✭✭✭LightningBolt


    Dailynaps wrote: »
    I hope you made the call LightningBolt!


    Running Totals:

    Level Stakes +3pts
    Handicap Staking +25pts

    Would love to say I did but got up late this morning and talked myself out of it! Figured I'd lost on the Oz and Samoa bets by 4-5 pts when I was unsure so I wasn't going to repeat!

    With you on the Fiji bet and on the Romanians at 22. Mate has backed big at 25, would have dove in myself on that line. Samoa and Wales I'll keep an eye out for team news. If Pisi and Tuif'ua are included I'll be on them at 9.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Running Totals:

    Level Stakes +2pts
    Handicap Staking +13.5pts


    'Mon Ireland :D


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Wales v Samoa +3.5
    Bet: Samoa +8 Evens Ladbrokes

    1pt or 4.5pts


    France v Canada +27.5
    Bet: Canada +31 Evens Will Hill

    1pt or 3.5pts


    England v Georgia +30.5
    Bet: Georgia +37 Evens Paddy Power

    1pt or 6.5pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Running Totals:

    Level Stakes +5pts
    Handicap Staking +28pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Italy v Russia +15.5
    Bet: Russia +23 Evens Will Hill

    1pt or 7.5pts


    Looks like Italy have risked it a bit making so many changes.


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Tonga v Japan +2.5
    Bet: Japan +6 Evens Will Hill

    1pt or 3.5pts


    Japan won their last clash by just a point and a similar scoreline is possible tomorrow. Most of the Japanese sat out their heavy defeat to NZ but will be back and fresh for this match.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Running Totals:

    Level Stakes +3pts
    Handicap Staking +17pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    South Africa v Namibia +69.5
    Bet: South Africa -59 Evens Paddy Power

    1pt or 10.5pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Running Totals:

    Level Stakes +4pts
    Handicap Staking +27.5pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Australia v USA +59.5
    Bet: USA +61 Evens Paddy Power

    1pt or 1.5pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Samoa v Fiji +5.5
    Bet: Fiji +10 Evens Will Hill

    1pt or 4.5pts


    Ireland v Russia +43.5
    Bet: Russia +53 Evens Ladbrokes

    1pt or 9.5pts


    Argentina v Scotland +13.5
    Bet: Argentina -2 Evens Paddy Power

    1pt or 11.5pts


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,313 ✭✭✭AstonMartin


    This is a market I have seen people have a lot of success with. I wish I could price up these markets.

    any chance you could give a detailed outline for one of your bets so I can get an idea of your handicapping theory?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,313 ✭✭✭AstonMartin


    Also how do you price up a game when Ireland makes 10 changes from their game last week?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Also how do you price up a game when Ireland makes 10 changes from their game last week?
    With great difficulty. Especially with Russia not at full strength either.
    This is a market I have seen people have a lot of success with. I wish I could price up these markets.

    any chance you could give a detailed outline for one of your bets so I can get an idea of your handicapping theory?

    I wouldn't consider myself an expert at all but the best advice i could give you would be to keep practising. Go through the recent form, team line-ups and past head-to-heads and take a stab at the handicap. Then compare it with the bookies and go back to see where any differences might have come from. At the start you'll probably be miles off their mark but as you get used to it, your line should get closer and closer to theirs but when you have a big difference you'll be confident in your own mark.

    Important note would be not to look for an average but instead look for the 50/50 split. Say France are a team who could win by ~40pts 20% of the time or just barely scrape though by ~5pts 80% of the time. The average would be 12 but would 12 be a reasonable handicap if their going to win by around 5 80% of the time?

    Also, take into account the likely total points in the match. A team can completely outclass their opponents and only win by 15pts in a ragged game or by 50pts in an open game.

    (And now I've lost everyone :o)


  • Advertisement
  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Wales v Namibia +53.5
    Bet: Namibia +58 Evens Bet365

    1pt or 4.5pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Canada v Japan 8.5
    Bet: Canada -5 Evens Bet365

    1pt or 3.5pts


    Italy v USA +35.5
    Bet: Italy -20 Evens Coral

    1pt or 15.5pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Georgia v Romania +7.5
    Bet: Romania +9 Evens Will Hill

    1pt or 1.5pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    South Africa v Samoa +20.5
    Bet: South Africa -18 Evens Ladbrokes

    1pt or 2.5pts


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 184 ✭✭Dailynaps


    Argentina v Georgia +28.5
    Bet: Argentina -20 Evens Paddy Power

    1pt or 8.5pts


    New Zealand v Canada +71.5
    Bet: New Zealand -57 Evens Powers

    1pt or 14.5pts


    Wales v Fiji +16.5
    Bet: Fiji +20 Evens Will Hill

    1pt or 3.5pts


    Ireland v Italy +9.5
    Bet: Italy +12 Evens Powers

    1pt or 2.5pts


Advertisement