Time to call it: the recession's over, or there's 10 years to go

delaad

Well, what do you think? I want this from your own experience, not from what you heard on media; just from what you've seen happening around you, and your own gut feeling.

7sr2z3fely84g5

it didn't start for anyone not in debt or who have their mortgage paid off,but for some odd reason i think we might have another boom again forgetting this almighty fck up we made and letting the developers/bankers away with their crimes.

starbelgrade

I think the whole recession thing is overplayed. Sure, people have less money, but for the majority of people that's all that's really changed.

It's not as big a deal as many would make it out to be.

Victor

The recession (the fall) is likely over. However, that doesn't mean were not in a hole.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

In economics, a recession is a business cycle contraction, a general slowdown in economic activity. During recessions, many macroeconomic indicators vary in a similar way. Production, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), employment, investment spending, capacity utilization, household incomes, business profits, and inflation all fall, while bankruptcies and the unemployment rate rise.

opinion guy

HELL NO

The property market is still mid temperature inversion.
It could condense into a clusterf**k at any given moment

Miss Olenska

starbelgrade wrote: »

I think the whole recession thing is overplayed. Sure, people have less money, but for the majority of people that's all that's really changed.

It's not as big a deal as many would make it out to be.

For a lot of people, it's a very big deal. Job losses or drastically shortened hours for many, people not getting funding for PhDs that they would have a few years ago etc. etc.

ardinn

starbelgrade wrote: »

I think the whole recession thing is overplayed. Sure, people have less money, but for the majority of people that's all that's really changed.

It's not as big a deal as many would make it out to be.

Jesus christ - Talk to some business owners about whats going on - If you work for a fairly secure multi national then maybe your fine and you can say this but some of the stories and situations I have heard recently and know of are frightening. It will get worse imo. With the revenue inflicting most of the damage on business owners.

starbelgrade

Miss Olenska wrote: »

For a lot of people, it's a very big deal. Job losses or drastically shortened hours for many, people not getting funding for PhDs that they would have a few years ago etc. etc.

I've no doubt that is true. But as I said, for the majority of people, the only real difference is a few quid less in the bank at the end of the month.

Miss Olenska

starbelgrade wrote: »

I've no doubt that is true. But as I said, for the majority of people, the only real difference is a few quid less in the bank at the end of the month.

A few quid less? A LOT less for many. The official unemployment figures don't give the full story. You have self-employed people who can't claim dole who are barely getting by, people employed but with vastly shortened hours barely getting by, people emigrating, none of these people are represented by the figures.

delaad

Victor wrote: »

The recession (the fall) is likely over. However, that doesn't mean were not in a hole.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Recession

Sorry I mentioned the technical term, recession. Really just asking; are things still s**te, or they'll be s**te forever, or they are not that really s**te at all.

Mickeroo

Isn't the US on the possibly on the verge of another recession or something? Which means we are too? Although I'm confused as to how there can be a recession in the middle of a recession. I really don't understand economics

A recession within a recession.

INCESSION.

:eek:

starbelgrade

ardinn wrote: »

Jesus christ - Talk to some business owners about whats going on - If you work for a fairly secure multi national then maybe your fine and you can say this but some of the stories and situations I have heard recently and know of are frightening. It will get worse imo. With the revenue inflicting most of the damage on business owners.

I run my own business. I know a good few other people who do too - most of them are doing OK. A few have fallen by the wayside, but in all honesty, they weren't supplying a great service and / or weren't competitive.

Most business owners will whinge about everything, but I really believe that any business which has made it through the last few years without closing, is in good shape & will be there to take advantage when things do pick up.

That's the nature of business.

7sr2z3fely84g5

i think the internet is slowing killing the high street stores,easons is struggling at the moment.

i don't even believe if cutting the min wage would create more jobs.

Miss Olenska

starbelgrade wrote: »

I run my own business. I know a good few other people who do too - most of them are doing OK. A few have fallen by the wayside, but in all honesty, they weren't supplying a great service and / or weren't competitive.

Most business owners will whinge about everything, but I really believe that any business which has made it through the last few years without closing, is in good shape & will be there to take advantage when things do pick up.

That's the nature of business.

My Dad has made it through the last few years but isn't really in good shape. He has held on by the skin of his teeth.

You don't really have a clue, TBH.

epgc3fyqirnbsx

I've never been doing better. But I was doing crap to begin with.
Still broke 1 week outta every month though

Saila

Mickeroo wrote: »

Isn't the US on the possibly on the verge of another recession or something? Which means we are too? Although I'm confused as to how there can be a recession in the middle of a recession. I really don't understand economics

A recession within a recession.

INCESSION.

:eek:

Boom

Prosperity

Normal

Recession

Depression is the one you are describing, when a recession deepens and gets worse it turns into this, a well known example of this is the combined stock market crash and american dustbowl of the 1930's

LighterGuy

Recession is still on.
People are still loosing their jobs. More and more people are signing on. Anyone who says otherwise is living in their own little bubble.

OPENROAD

Rayne Ripe Sadness wrote: »

i think the internet is slowing killing the high street stores,easons is struggling at the moment.

i don't even believe if cutting the min wage would create more jobs.

Moving with the times and understanding your market environment and adapting accordingly

We still don't seem to understand the concept that this country is still too expensive.

wild_cat

Miss Olenska wrote: »

My Dad has made it through the last few years but isn't really in good shape. He has held on by the skin of his teeth.

You don't really have a clue, TBH.

I think what he said was true. A member of my family is also involved in the retail business and this year was one of his most successful years.......

Must be hard knowing it all and worrying about family businesses all the same.

BUT.. I do think rates seriously need to be lowered. The recession might still be on going but lots of people still have money and jobs.... remember near enough 80% of our available workforce is in a job!!(that figure is probably more realistic that what they are giving) and I am honestly fed up with people being so ****ing gloomy. Do ye realise that we have some of the highest exports in the EU etc etc!!

Also...

All those people on Joe Duffy during the week complaining they hadn't had holidays in two years due to paying the mortgage etc... Anyone remember the eighties? Even in the early nineties it was only the very well off that went abroad twice a year. Go back 30 years ago and bar a few days at the beach people never went on holiday, kids wore hand me downs etc and it seems like those shouting the loudest are the "I WANT, I WANT, I WANT" crowd.

So you can't constantly consume. Though ****ing ****.

delaad

OPENROAD wrote: »

Moving with the times and understanding your market environment and adapting accordingly

We still don't seem to understand the concept that this country is still too expensive.

It may just be in everybody's interest to keep costs down

Victor

LighterGuy wrote: »

Recession is still on. People are still loosing their jobs.

While it can't be ignored, unemployment levels are not the decider of whether we have a recession or not.

Kensington

Ten years to go (at least)

People still losing jobs day after day.
Budget 2012 is going to be a massacre.
Lot of people teetering on the edge financially as it is, more taxes and cuts and they could be pushed over the edge.
Possibility of a harsh double-dip if the US falls over.

If any of the cuts which are coming down the line kick off strikes then it can only get worse.

7sr2z3fely84g5

OPENROAD wrote: »

Moving with the times and understanding your market environment and adapting accordingly

We still don't seem to understand the concept that this country is still too expensive.

Yes,but cuts must start at the top,nobody seems to say the utility/rent rates are too high.

starbelgrade

Miss Olenska wrote: »

My Dad has made it through the last few years but isn't really in good shape. He has held on by the skin of his teeth.

You don't really have a clue, TBH.

I'm more than willing to debate this with you, but not if you reduce the debate to the level of telling me that I don't know what I'm talking about.

If you want to discuss the issue, then please do so, but don't try & turn it into a slanging match.

OPENROAD

Rayne Ripe Sadness wrote: »

Yes,but cuts must start at the top,nobody seems to say the utility/rent rates are too high.

Totally agree, definitely from the top/down

7sr2z3fely84g5

Kensington wrote: »

Budget 2012 is going to be a massacre.

it is but,those who can afford the cuts wont face it,we are crippled in paying out massive pensions for some retired civil servants.

reinald

starbelgrade wrote: »

I think the whole recession thing is overplayed. Sure, people have less money, but for the majority of people that's all that's really changed.

It's not as big a deal as many would make it out to be.

If anything, the true situation is probably being underplayed. I live in a busy suburb of Dublin and on a day to day basis it is obvious to me that things are much quieter than they were three or four years ago, in the sense that far fewer people seem to be around generally, much less traffic on the roads etc. It is blatently clear that those who can get out have emigrated or are planning to emigrate and I know plenty of people who have fled. This is worrying insofar as the economy is losing some of the brightest minds, particularly those drawn from the younger demographic, serving to reinforce the dire economic situation.

In terms of the overall picture, my gut feeling is that figures are being massaged and managed, especially the unemployment figures. For example, there is a view that the true unemployment rate in Ireland is actually nearer 21% not 14%. Simialrly, I am of the view that problems in the Eurozone are being underplayed and it may only be a matter of time before something drastic and possibly unpleasant is going to have to happen in order to bring the ongoing crisis at Eurozone level to an end.

Having said all of that, I think that the Irish economy is, in principle, flexible enough to return to, hopefully export led, strong growth but the question is how long that could take. Looking at the overall current situation, my guess would be approx 5-7 years.

delaad

Kensington wrote: »

Ten years to go (at least)

People still losing jobs day after day.
Budget 2012 is going to be a massacre.
Lot of people teetering on the edge financially as it is, more taxes and cuts and they could be pushed over the edge.
Possibility of a harsh double-dip if the US falls over.

If any of the cuts which are coming down the line kick off strikes then it can only get worse.

But why would anyone jeopardise their job, in these times, by going on strike?

7sr2z3fely84g5

delaad wrote: »

But why would anyone jeopardise their job, in these times, by going on strike?

you mean industrial action

7sr2z3fely84g5

reinald wrote: »

In terms of the overall picture, my gut feeling is that figures are being massaged and managed

You be right,anyone put on a course would be technically off the dole queue.

Kensington

delaad wrote: »

But why would anyone jeopardise their job, in these times, by going on strike?

I don't in any way want this to descend into yet another public sector bashing slagging match - there's enough of those threads around - but if the government start trying to enact the clause of the CPA regarding worsening economic conditions and call off the no further paycuts section, I can see the public sector unions calling for strike action.

OPENROAD

Kensington wrote: »

Ten years to go (at least)

People still losing jobs day after day.
Budget 2012 is going to be a massacre.
Lot of people teetering on the edge financially as it is, more taxes and cuts and they could be pushed over the edge.
Possibility of a harsh double-dip if the US falls over.

If any of the cuts which are coming down the line kick off strikes then it can only get worse.

And it will do nothing to aid recovery, higher charges etc.... and yet we will probably be told to go out and spend.

delaad

Rayne Ripe Sadness wrote: »

you mean industrial action

Well, yeah.

chucken1

Rayne Ripe Sadness wrote: »

i think the internet is slowing killing the high street stores,easons is struggling at the moment.

i don't even believe if cutting the min wage would create more jobs.

I have to say,I love books,I really do!
It would be a big deal for me to go to Easons and buy a book,but since Ive signed up to the deals thingy,Im now buying a book a week.

The silly thing Easons are doing with online buying is,sending a single book by courier stick in the post lads..its cheaper!

HavingCrack

opinion guy wrote: »

HELL NO

The property market is still mid temperature inversion.
It could condense into a clusterf**k at any given moment

To be honest, basing economic prosperity or lack there of on the property market is exactly what got us into this mess in the first place. I would argue that property prices need to drop another 20% or so before they become normal, aka what they are really worth.

ascanbe

This isn't a recession, it's extortion/ financial rape; and it's only just begun, to paraphase the Carpenters.

Kensington

OPENROAD wrote: »

And it will do nothing to aid recovery, higher charges etc.... and yet we will probably be told to go out and spend.

I know, take more money out of the economy to spend isn't going to help recovery. At the moment though I think it's all about trying to get the country's finances in order. Once the runaway trainwreck has been stopped, then the recovery can begin.

wild_cat

Kensington wrote: »

I don't in any way want this to descend into yet another public sector bashing slagging match - there's enough of those threads around - but if the government start trying to enact the clause of the CPA regarding worsening economic conditions and call off the no further paycuts section, I can see the public sector unions calling for strike action.

I'd gladly step in and fill a clerical position that needed doing while they were busy complaining.

Piss easy.

Bowlardo

another 10 years until we are only way right! get out of the country while we are still some sor tof novelty in canada and OZ before they get to find out we are a shower of ****ign dickheads

Thomas828

Yet another thread about the recession. With the US economy failing to get back on track we're facing a double-dip recession.

Let's be realistic, our economy will never reach the heights it did during the "Celtic Tiger" years, and personally I hope it doesn't. The base greed and money madness that came with it was poisoning every level of society.

The Celtic Tiger is dead. May it never rise again.

reinald

Kensington wrote: »

I don't in any way want this to descend into yet another public sector bashing slagging match - there's enough of those threads around - but if the government start trying to enact the clause of the CPA regarding worsening economic conditions and call off the no further paycuts section, I can see the public sector unions calling for strike action.

I dont think they will touch Croke Park with a barge pole except in a doomsday situation. My guess is that a large proportion of cheesed off public and civil servants are largely responsible for the extent of the defection from Fianna Fail at the last election and the huge majority which this government enjoys. Could be political suicide for FG/Lab to stir this hornets nest.

7sr2z3fely84g5

reinald wrote: »

I dont think they will touch Croke Park with a barge pole except in a doomsday situation. My guess is that a large proportion of cheesed off public and civil servants are largely responsible for the extent of the defection from Fianna Fail at the last election and the huge majority which this government enjoys. Could be political suicide for FG/Lab to stir this hornets nest.

Half of the last gov and this gov are teachers themselves,so they not going to break the deal.

imo i think the agreement was an last ditch attempt to avoid a total strike in the sector.

delaad

Thomas828 wrote: »

Yet another thread about the recession. With the US economy failing to get back on track we're facing a double-dip recession.

Let's be realistic, our economy will never reach the heights it did during the "Celtic Tiger" years, and personally I hope it doesn't. The base greed and money madness that came with it was poisoning every level of society.

The Celtic Tiger is dead. May it never rise again.

All this thread is really asking is, do you think things are pickiing up, or not?

reinald

Rayne Ripe Sadness wrote: »

Half of the last gov and this gov are teachers themselves,so they not going to break the deal.

imo i think the agreement was an last ditch attempt to avoid a total strike in the sector.

Agreed. Though I do think that the whole public/private war of words has been unhealthy from a societal perspective and largely diversionary. There are much bigger fish to fry here than public sector workers imo.

starbelgrade

delaad wrote: »

All this thread is really asking is, do you think things are pickiing up, or not?

If you just wanted a series of 'yes' / 'no' replies, then you really should have said so.

7sr2z3fely84g5

reinald wrote: »

Agreed. Though I do think that the whole public/private war of words has been unhealthy from a societal perspective and largely diversionary. There are much bigger fish to fry here than public sector workers imo.

well,looking back at the disputes through the years,there seems to be a pay off demanded in flexibility in certain sections,other departments seem to be ever expanding,some auld biddies could retire and be replaced with computers,some sectors like the private are up to their eyes in debt and cant take an another pay cut.

Thomas828

delaad wrote: »

All this thread is really asking is, do you think things are pickiing up, or not?

To answer that question, no, and I've seen no real evidence of recovery in the Republic or the North.

reinald

Rayne Ripe Sadness wrote: »

well,looking back at the disputes through the years,there seems to be a pay off demanded in flexibility in certain sections,other departments seem to be ever expanding,some auld biddies could retire and be replaced with computers,some sectors like the private are up to their eyes in debt and cant take an another pay cut.

Accepted, though I would respectfully suggest that the actual situation in both the public and private sectors are probably are a little more nuanced. There are some elements of the public sector which are dangerously oversretched (I'm mainly thinking about frontline services here) while certain elements of the private sector, particularly select multinationals, are in a very favourable position and vice versa as you have suggested. Neither the public or private sector (excluding the banking system obviously) caused or was even a substantial contributor the Irish crisis by a long shot.

starbelgrade

In my experience, I think things have picked up. I work in one of the professions that was the first & worst to be hit - there were job losses in my line of work even before the word 'recession' was first mentioned.

But things have picked up. People are - cautiously - starting to spend again. And as I said earlier - it's not like most people don't have money - they have a bit less, but what they have they're afraid to spend.

We have massive amounts of personal savings in Ireland - one of the highest rates in the eurozone. And that really isn't a good thing.

delaad

Thomas828 wrote: »

To answer that question, no, and I've seen no real evidence of recovery in the Republic or the North.

And your experience of the South is, is it just Dundalk, or further south?

reinald

Thomas828 wrote: »

To answer that question, no, and I've seen no real evidence of recovery in the Republic or the North.

Apologies if this sounds a bit ignorant, but has the economy in the North not been more or less stagnant over the last decade or so anyway? If so, is it realistic to use the language of recovery?