thinking of becoming a professional gambler

Hulk Hands

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned to stick almost exclusively to Betfair.

But yeah, best advice...stay out of it. The only sort of gambling somebody can make a steady living at is Poker.

Every so often you a sports-betting genius with amazing discipline comes along, but it's very rare. I'd need to be winning regularly for 4 years+ to even think about going pro. You probably need much longer than that to build up a reliable source of contacts.

beeintheknow

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned to stick almost exclusively to Betfair.

But yeah, best advice...stay out of it. The only sort of gambling somebody can make a steady living at is Poker.

Every so often you a sports-betting genius with amazing discipline comes along, but it's very rare. I'd need to be winning regularly for 4 years+ to even think about going pro. You probably need much longer than that to build up a reliable source of contacts.

Thanks chum. My post is no longer the most retarded thing on this thread.

J-Fit

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I'm surprised nobody has mentioned to stick almost exclusively to Betfair.

But yeah, best advice...stay out of it. The only sort of gambling somebody can make a steady living at is Poker.

Every so often you a sports-betting genius with amazing discipline comes along, but it's very rare. I'd need to be winning regularly for 4 years+ to even think about going pro. You probably need much longer than that to build up a reliable source of contacts.

Ridiculous post. And gambling profitability is not dependent on a list of "contacts".

Hulk Hands

beeintheknow wrote: »

Thanks chum. My post is no longer the most retarded thing on this thread.

J-Fit wrote: »

Ridiculous post. And gambling profitability is not dependent on a list of "contacts".

Hold on, are ye both retarded? Are you disagreeing that Betfair is consistently the best place for a pro to gamble? If you are successful regularly in a bookies then they will stop taking your bets.

And there's a lot more professional poker players out there than there is professional gamblers?

90%of the very few prop gamblers in Ireland base their game around Horse racing and Greyhounds. Are your diagreeing that having contacts is essential?

J-Fit

Hulk Hands wrote: »

beeintheknow wrote: »

Thanks chum. My post is no longer the most retarded thing on this thread.

J-Fit wrote: »

Ridiculous post. And gambling profitability is not dependent on a list of "contacts".

Hold on, are ye both retarded? Are you disagreeing that Betfair is consistently the best place for a pro to gamble? If you are successful regularly in a bookies then they will stop taking your bets.

And there's a lot more professional poker players out there than there is professional gamblers?

90%of the very few prop gamblers in Ireland base their game around Horse racing and Greyhounds. Are your diagreeing that having contacts is essential?

Why do you think I'm talking about horse racing? Why in God's name would I need "contacts" to predict football results? And finally, where did I say Betfair wasn't the best betting platform and where did you say it was?

What a whirlwind you are.

jive

J-Fit wrote: »

Why do you think I'm talking about horse racing? Why in God's name would I need "contacts" to predict football results? And finally, where did I say Betfair wasn't the best betting platform and where did you say it was?

What a whirlwind you are.

What a whirlwind you are. How many pro gamblers do you think there are betting on football? Realistically they can only know so many leagues in such depth that they are able to make a living off it. I'd say you could count the amount of straight professional football punters on one hand, if that. Making a living off football in the long run is pretty much a no go unless you have information that the bookies and the general public don't.

He thinks your talking about horse racing because that is probably what the vast majority of professional gamblers bet on.

Unless you know someone willing to give you information about things or if you're involved in the game yourself then you can pretty much forget about going pro! I'd say there are very few people making a living from 'honest' gambling. I don't doubt that people can make money from it but making a living off it would be incredibly difficult to say the least (unless of course, you know something or someone:))

J-Fit

jive wrote: »

J-Fit wrote: »

Why do you think I'm talking about horse racing? Why in God's name would I need "contacts" to predict football results? And finally, where did I say Betfair wasn't the best betting platform and where did you say it was?

What a whirlwind you are.

What a whirlwind you are. How many pro gamblers do you think there are betting on football? Realistically they can only know so many leagues in such depth that they are able to make a living off it. I'd say you could count the amount of straight professional football punters on one hand, if that. Making a living off football in the long run is pretty much a no go unless you have information that the bookies and the general public don't.

He thinks your talking about horse racing because that is probably what the vast majority of professional gamblers bet on.

Unless you know someone willing to give you information about things or if you're involved in the game yourself then you can pretty much forget about going pro! I'd say there are very few people making a living from 'honest' gambling. I don't doubt that people can make money from it but making a living off it would be incredibly difficult to say the least (unless of course, you know something or someone:))

Lord give me patience. It's answers like this that keep me safe in the knowledge that there'll always be mug punters for me to take money off. I'm no pro but I could be if I wanted. I suggest you brush up on your gambling principles and how and why gamblers can win in the long term. You do NOT need to know any leagues in depth to win in football. Read that sentence again. What you do need is a grasp of numbers and an ability to understand odds and probabilities.

jive

J-Fit wrote: »

Lord give me patience. It's answers like this that keep me safe in the knowledge that there'll always be mug punters for me to take money off. I'm no pro but I could be if I wanted. I suggest you brush up on your gambling principles and how and why gamblers can win in the long term. You do NOT need to know any leagues in depth to win in football. Read that sentence again. What you do need is a grasp of numbers and an ability to understand odds and probabilities.

"I'm no pro but I could be if I wanted" I lol'd. You're basing this off what? (in before I've won a load of money over the last couple of years because based on what you've said I know you haven't and don't have the knowledge to be a pro)

You need a grasp of numbers and an ability to understand odds and probabilities? You mean like the professionals that work for these companies do? Unless you have something to sway the odds in your favour then you won't win in the long run. It's easy to say "I keep an eye on injuries and the teams" but that doesn't matter a toss. The likes of Rooney being replaced by Hernandez or Pedro playing instead of Messi isn't going to affect the odds to any extent that will make you profitable in the long run. Rarely there will be a mistake at the bookies/exchange or information that you pick up on before someone else gets their bite of the price. Occasionally you will get on something that the bookies don't know but it's never going to happen enough to make a living off it.

I'd like you to pick a game from this weekend and tell me why it is a game that would be potentially profitable in the long run. You've claimed you could be pro so prove it by analysing and compiling odds on a game which you deem to give you one over on the bookies. I know it may not come in but I want to see you choose a game that will show that you can be profitable in the long term. I'd put a lot of money on you not doing this or doing it and proving that you could not be a professional gambler. I'm bolding this bit so that when you reply you can't just ignore it.

pakalasa

Guys,
I just looked at the Arsenal - Swansea match (Betfair), 60mmins gone now, and already €3,500,000 has been traded in the Match Win market alone. That's just one market in one game.
In these exchanges, the odds are set purely on market forces, buy and sell. The big question is - are these odds the 'true odds' for the event. Some will say they are. Some will say they're not, they're merely reflecting the flow of money.
If you can figure out the true odds, it's a licence to print money. You simply bet when Value is high and lay when value is low.

So, how do you figure out the true odds?

Fursttimer

pakalasa wrote: »

Guys,
I just looked at the Arsenal - Swansea match (Betfair), 60mmins gone now, and already €3,500,000 has been traded in the Match Win market alone.

The vast majority of that money is their own.

This thread should be re-named "clueless"

J-Fit

jive wrote: »

J-Fit wrote: »

Lord give me patience. It's answers like this that keep me safe in the knowledge that there'll always be mug punters for me to take money off. I'm no pro but I could be if I wanted. I suggest you brush up on your gambling principles and how and why gamblers can win in the long term. You do NOT need to know any leagues in depth to win in football. Read that sentence again. What you do need is a grasp of numbers and an ability to understand odds and probabilities.

"I'm no pro but I could be if I wanted" I lol'd. You're basing this off what? (in before I've won a load of money over the last couple of years because based on what you've said I know you haven't and don't have the knowledge to be a pro)

You need a grasp of numbers and an ability to understand odds and probabilities? You mean like the professionals that work for these companies do? Unless you have something to sway the odds in your favour then you won't win in the long run. It's easy to say "I keep an eye on injuries and the teams" but that doesn't matter a toss. The likes of Rooney being replaced by Hernandez or Pedro playing instead of Messi isn't going to affect the odds to any extent that will make you profitable in the long run. Rarely there will be a mistake at the bookies/exchange or information that you pick up on before someone else gets their bite of the price. Occasionally you will get on something that the bookies don't know but it's never going to happen enough to make a living off it.

I'd like you to pick a game from this weekend and tell me why it is a game that would be potentially profitable in the long run. You've claimed you could be pro so prove it by analysing and compiling odds on a game which you deem to give you one over on the bookies. I know it may not come in but I want to see you choose a game that will show that you can be profitable in the long term. I'd put a lot of money on you not doing this or doing it and proving that you could not be a professional gambler. I'm bolding this bit so that when you reply you can't just ignore it.

You haven't a bloody clue mate. My strategy is not fixed odds betting. I have an in running strategy that involves backing and laying and I'm rarely involved in a game by the final whistle. Profitability varies game on game and I'll often profit despite the result. I'm not revealing my strat on here because its profitable and will continue to be so. And you'll think I'm shying away from your idiotic challenge and I couldn't care less because I know your claim that good sports betters can't win is wrong, wrong, wrong. Your challenge is idiotic because one bet means nothing, win or lose. What do you want me to do, pick a short priced favourite and explain all the reasons why they'll win? I'd be more likely to calculate the true odds myself and have a bet based on perception of value which may or may not conform to what you believe is value. Forget studying form, forget injuries, forget emotion and find an edge based on raw numbers.

jive

J-Fit wrote: »

You haven't a bloody clue mate. My strategy is not fixed odds betting. I have an in running strategy that involves backing and laying and I'm rarely involved in a game by the final whistle. Profitability varies game on game and I'll often profit despite the result. I'm not revealing my strat on here because its profitable and will continue to be so. And you'll think I'm shying away from your idiotic challenge and I couldn't care less because I know your claim that good sports betters can't win is wrong, wrong, wrong. Your challenge is idiotic because one bet means nothing, win or lose. What do you want me to do, pick a short priced favourite and explain all the reasons why they'll win? I'd be more likely to calculate the true odds myself and have a bet based on perception of value which may or may not conform to what you believe is value. Forget studying form, forget injuries, forget emotion and find an edge based on raw numbers.

"prove it by analysing and compiling odds on a game which you deem to give you one over on the bookies"

Find an edge based on raw numbers then, go. You're ignoring the fact that I said to calculate the odds on something which would be greater than what the odds you are being given. Ergo, you would likely be profitable in the long run. You're the one who has mentioned emotion and short priced favourites + reasons for why they'll win. I never mentioned that. And I don't think you're shying away from the challenge, it's clear for all to see that you are. You talk a big game but you can't back it up. Anyone can claim to be a great gambler and many do, but few are.

If you don't wish to reveal your strat then fine but why even mention it like you are some kind of messiah? If you're going to have a go at other posters and talk a lot of crap then have something to back it up. As far as I'm concerned you're just a mouth.

J-Fit

jive wrote: »

J-Fit wrote: »

You haven't a bloody clue mate. My strategy is not fixed odds betting. I have an in running strategy that involves backing and laying and I'm rarely involved in a game by the final whistle. Profitability varies game on game and I'll often profit despite the result. I'm not revealing my strat on here because its profitable and will continue to be so. And you'll think I'm shying away from your idiotic challenge and I couldn't care less because I know your claim that good sports betters can't win is wrong, wrong, wrong. Your challenge is idiotic because one bet means nothing, win or lose. What do you want me to do, pick a short priced favourite and explain all the reasons why they'll win? I'd be more likely to calculate the true odds myself and have a bet based on perception of value which may or may not conform to what you believe is value. Forget studying form, forget injuries, forget emotion and find an edge based on raw numbers.

"prove it by analysing and compiling odds on a game which you deem to give you one over on the bookies"

Find an edge based on raw numbers then, go. You're ignoring the fact that I said to calculate the odds on something which would be greater than what the odds you are being given. Ergo, you would likely be profitable in the long run. You're the one who has mentioned emotion and short priced favourites + reasons for why they'll win. I never mentioned that. And I don't think you're shying away from the challenge, it's clear for all to see that you are. You talk a big game but you can't back it up. Anyone can claim to be a great gambler and many do, but few are.

If you don't wish to reveal your strat then fine but why even mention it like you are some kind of messiah? If you're going to have a go at other posters and talk a lot of crap then have something to back it up. As far as I'm concerned you're just a mouth.

The thing is you're the one talking the crap by suggesting that long term profitability is not possible. Nobody knows me here so why the fck would I need or want to prove myself and my strat to you or anybody else. What would one value bet prove to anybody? Why would I care whether you believe me or not? My only concern is that numpties such as yourself will come on here and unequivically state that long term profitability is impossible. You're incorrect. It's by no means easy but it doesn't make you any less incorrect. And you know what? It can't be argued with because there ARE people who achieve it!

Hulk Hands

J-Fit wrote: »

Why do you think I'm talking about horse racing? Why in God's name would I need "contacts" to predict football results? And finally, where did I say Betfair wasn't the best betting platform and where did you say it was?

What a whirlwind you are.

You called my post ridiculous. I was defending it. Which part of my post did you find ridiculous?

J-Fit wrote: »

What you do need is a grasp of numbers and an ability to understand odds and probabilities.

Yeah. That's the ridiculously easy part. Coming out of school I felt I was proficient in such, before ever studying it in college. Any decently intelligent person can efficiently determine odds and probabilities.

The hard part is being so knowledgeable at you're chosen game(s), that you can determine the odds and probabilities in that sport and use others mistakes to make yourself a profit. Against the bookies this is nigh on impossible in nearly all sports bar Horse and Greyhound Racing, such are the knowledgeable people employed by the bookies. That's where the 'contacts' come in. Obviously the exchanges are different, there's obviously profit to be made there.

Tell me, if you are such a knowledgeable in play trader and can determine the correct odds and probabilities to such a profitable extent, then why don't you apply to be an in-running odds compiler for one of the big firms and earn a safe, steady and very comfortable living? You've already said you're not a pro gambler so wouldn't this be a favorable career choice for an esteemed in-running trader such as yourself?

jive

J-Fit wrote: »

The thing is you're the one talking the crap by suggesting that long term profitability is not possible. Nobody knows me here so why the fck would I need or want to prove myself and my strat to you or anybody else. What would one value bet prove to anybody? Why would I care whether you believe me or not? My only concern is that numpties such as yourself will come on here and unequivically state that long term profitability is impossible. You're incorrect. It's by no means easy but it doesn't make you any less incorrect. And you know what? It can't be argued with because there ARE people who achieve it!

So you're not going to prove that you're not talking out your arse, OK then from this point on I'll assume you're talking out your arse until you suggest otherwise. I never said you can't make a living off it, you can. Again you are making silly assumptions and stating things that I have not even said which makes you the numpty. The only way to make a living is on the exchanges and the vast, vast majority of people cannot make a living from gambling.

You're a genius though and have odds compiling abilities second to none. You could go pro but you choose not to......

Unless your next post actually has some substance then I'm not going to bother replying. gl hf

digme

jive wrote: »

So you're not going to prove that you're not talking out your arse, OK then from this point on I'll assume you're talking out your arse until you suggest otherwise. I never said you can't make a living off it, you can. Again you are making silly assumptions and stating things that I have not even said which makes you the numpty. The only way to make a living is on the exchanges and the vast, vast majority of people cannot make a living from gambling.

You're a genius though and have odds compiling abilities second to none. You could go pro but you choose not to......

Unless your next post actually has some substance then I'm not going to bother replying. gl hf

TRolll????????????????????????

gnella

a real tit-for-tat thread this is,seriously guys,you are all making valid points here but cant seem to see between "the rage".
i happen to agree with j-fit in that you can find value in numbers if you are looking at the correct ones and reading them properly.in football,top leagues are more or less priced correctly because this is where most of layers income is,value can often be found in lower leagues and by getting best odds,price compilers are human as well and for the most part have the same info available to them as we have so if you can read just 1 bet better than them then you have value(they have to price all games,you dont need to bet in all games)
discipline can then be the downfall of a potentially profit-making(note-i am not using the word pro)punter.i know this because i can find value bets in certain areas but have yet to learn to be disciplined enough to stick with what i can be good at long-term,making either a living or a reasonable second income is not impossible but not as simple as being able to pick a winning bet

J-Fit

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Tell me, if you are such a knowledgeable in play trader and can determine the correct odds and probabilities to such a profitable extent, then why don't you apply to be an in-running odds compiler for one of the big firms and earn a safe, steady and very comfortable living? You've already said you're not a pro gambler so wouldn't this be a favorable career choice for an esteemed in-running trader such as yourself?

Because I already earn a comfortable living doing what I do. I have no need or inclination.

yeehaw

beeintheknow appears to be sharper than many of you give him credit for. He is a bit of a name dropper, but those are serious names.

holdemfoldem

Pretty sure J-Fit is just greening up on in running markets, when i say just i mean that's the bases of his profit. Its basically trading and is definitely profitable if you know what your at.

This thread is pretty funny, it ranges from " you'll never beat the bookies " to some pretty smart people who seem to know where their edge lies.

To those that do make a return on whatever its is they choose to bet on why argue with people? It is obv that long term money can be and is made by people through sports betting and many of its derivatives so if someone disagrees with that premise then let them keep thinking that no?

youtube!

by betfairs own admission less than 1.5% of their punters earn over 15K per yr, thats how difficult it is.

digme

youtube! wrote: »

by betfairs own admission less than 1.5% of their punters earn over 15K per yr, thats how difficult it is.

I wonder what rate they are paying on the net winnings?
I currently pay 4%. If i was to pay 2% i'm sure i would make 15 grand too.
You'd have to have inside info.Or a group of people working for you.

d-gal

I'd love to have the dedication and focus to do it. If I stuck to a few things I would be in profit no problem but would always find it hard to resist certain bets and some tips.
I rely a lot on contacts and funnily enough I made a recording from January til June on information from different people. Information came from 6 people and two of them were in profit, one by 120points and the other by 80points.
Pro gambling is about discipline and sticking to your guns, hell you could be a pro gambler if you followed Pyro's tips every flat season!
I know a few pro's and I only know one who is in profit all year round, he is a greyhound owner and is limited to 50euro bets all over Ireland, he specializes in one track and makes a fortune but I see him as 1 in 100,000. Personally think greyhound racing is massively unexposed for making a lot of money.

youtube!

youtube! wrote: »

by betfairs own admission less than 1.5% of their punters earn over 15K per yr, thats how difficult it is.

I wouldn't have thought there was that many in profit, surely that's 1.5% of those in profit make 15K+/annum?

J-Fit

holdemfoldem wrote: »

Pretty sure J-Fit is just greening up on in running markets, when i say just i mean that's the bases of his profit.

That's absolutely it! It's a stupidly simple strategy that requires stupidly easy research, though I often leave the trade run if it's going my way. You need to pick games/trade that have a high probability of the odds moving in your direction. Whether they do or whether they don't you need to know what to do no matter what scenario you are faced with. I find losing frustrating but I have no problem whatsoever in taking a loss when my exit arrives.

Now I'm no pro, this is just a side thing for the moment and I think Betfair's premium charges have ruined any chance of one making this their absolute full time living (Betdaq need to come to the rescue) but you can greatly supplement your own income with the right approach. The best advice I could give to anyone is to watch markets over and over, learn how odds move and paper trade all your strategies with the Geeks Toy training mode.

EDIT: Minor words

youtube!

RoverJames wrote: »

I wouldn't have thought there was that many in profit, surely that's 1.5% of those in profit make 15K+/annum?

That may well be the case but I am not certain. I just know that BF had to make this admission in a court of law some yrs ago, I cannot remember right now what the case was all about but I do know BF were not too enamoured with having to admit this fact, as with all bookies and exchanges they want the punter to feel they have a great chance with them and not face the stark realities of hyper efficient betting markets.
What was also exposed in the same case was the make up of those who did make these profits, basically over 90% had SIS fast pics and they were essentially not gambling atall as they had a few seconds of advantage over the ordinary in running punter,(i.e they knew the result almost immeadiatly)
These people invest huge sums of money in their fast pics systems to give them this massive advantage.
They are commonly referred to as "hooverers" as they take every last cent that is left in the market when the result is known.

Bookies deliberately want to promote an image of being "the punters friend" when in truth they are simply a team of ruthless accountants.

trippingjimi

youtube! wrote: »

by betfairs own admission less than 1.5% of their punters earn over 15K per yr, thats how difficult it is.

I'd say that's about right. Only about 1.5% of people that hang out in bookies every day look like they earn over 15k per yr

holdemfoldem

youtube! wrote: »

by betfairs own admission less than 1.5% of their punters earn over 15K per yr, thats how difficult it is.

I would possibly agree to this with regard to BF solely, but you have to think of it differently, how many people win 10k or 5k a year on BF? take everyone from BF that makes +4k a year right, they don't just bet on BF.

Sure BF is good for some odds but it is terrible for others, plus a lot of people use BF for purposes other than just straight betting ( hedging, dutching, arbs yadayada ) so when BF publish those figures you are only getting a small portion of a large picture

Dailynaps

holdemfoldem wrote: »

Sure BF is good for some odds but it is terrible for others, plus a lot of people use BF for purposes other than just straight betting ( hedging, dutching, arbs yadayada ) so when BF publish those figures you are only getting a small portion of a large picture

You may only get a small portion but you're getting the "better" portion, as in all professional gamblers will have a betfair account but not all losers will.

If only 1.5% make over 15k on BF then i'd estimate far less than .5% make it overall. That's taking out all traders, all in-running pros at the track and basically anyone who backs big-piced horses or golfers.

holdemfoldem

I dont quite get where your pulling .5% from? you mean to say when all bookmakers and exchanges are consider you feel the number of successful people decreases rather than increases?

why have you removed "traders, all in-running pros at the track and basically anyone who backs big-piced horses or golfers" these are the people who are most successful and they are still gambling.