Not a conspiracy-thoery, just a question. Sept 2008-now...?

stevejr

...,September 2008 was when I started to realise that the **** was definately gonna hit the fan. It just didn't register before then. Been worried ever since.

My country took a f**ckin nose-dive off the top-step on any an important flights of stairs that matter. Our country has landed on it's face. We're all different. Nothing is the same now.

So 1095 days later and the **** (political, economic, or social) continues to hit the fan, and hard. When will it end?

But maybe 20 years from now, as we tell our "old soldier" stories. What will you say, when asked how it started, how it affected you, and, the aftermath....?

hatrickpatrick

I have to be honest, I don't understand why everyone cites Sept 2008 as the beginning of all this.
Anyone who had bank shares will tell you the sh*t hit the fan MAJORLY in August 2007 and it's been in a downward spiral ever since.

So long as you've got a good bed and a good pair of shoes you'll be okay. You'll spend most of your life in one or the other.


It just helps to also have high speed broadband, central heating, double glazing, high-end technology products like MP3 players, smartphones, laptops and 42 inch TVs.

Where To

We can always go to the neighbours for something to eat

Naomi00

In 2007, my history/geography teacher kept insisting that there would be a recession. At the time there was no talk about problems with the economy. Whenever we were reading about how poor Russia was because of Communism, or about poverty etc he'd go on about how that 'would be us soon'. Everyone thought he was just being really negative/extreme though. Not in a naive way, it was just because he kept going on about it all the time.


Anyway I think that the recession actually was good in some ways, because it stopped developers from destroying the rest of our landscape with their housing estates that no one wanted in the first place.

OPENROAD

Naomi00 wrote: »

In 2007, my history/geography teacher kept insisting that there would be a recession. At the time there was no talk about problems with the economy. Whenever we were reading about how poor Russia was because of Communism, or about poverty etc he'd go on about how that 'would be us soon'. Everyone thought he was just being really negative/extreme though. Not in a naive way, it was just because he kept going on about it all the time.


Anyway I think that the recession actually was good in some ways, because it stopped developers from destroying the rest of our landscape with their housing estates that no one wanted in the first place.

Certainly wasn't the view of AH at the time

joshrogan

I complained about it on the internet.

saa

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I have to be honest, I don't understand why everyone cites Sept 2008 as the beginning of all this.
Anyone who had bank shares will tell you the sh*t hit the fan MAJORLY in August 2007 and it's been in a downward spiral ever since.

That may be true and many more things were hitting the fan starting to crack before 08/07 but it did take time for that to filter through the working class' I suppose. /

I started a course in 2008, strolled into a part time job without any competition at the same time ended up in hospital a few weeks later so that was the end of that and I've never been able to just stroll into another job, not able to find one without experience either,

It was at Sept 08 I definitely noticed the change, although I have never had money anyway but the next year for me any way the cuts began and this sense of hopelessness ensued.

AgileMyth

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I have to be honest, I don't understand why everyone cites Sept 2008 as the beginning of all this.
Anyone who had bank shares will tell you the sh*t hit the fan MAJORLY in August 2007 and it's been in a downward spiral ever since.

I'll agree with that. A family member of mine sold a house at that time which would have been a very sought after property only a few months previously. Interestingly the County Council were the only ones who didn't see the collapse coming.
Its still standing there untouched four years after they bought it.

The 2008 budget, in December of 2007, was the first thing which brought it to the attention of the general public. Though it was played off as being a short term dip at that stage.

suspectdevice

all the signs were there well before '08

just that no one wanted to see them except for the dope on rte

looky loo

'The future isn't what it used to be'.

jimmycrackcorm

stevejr wrote: »

...,September 2008 was when I started to realise that the **** was definately gonna hit the fan. It just didn't register before then. Been worried ever since.

Were you even born in the 1980's?

Back in 2004/2005 I was telling everyone who would listen that the over reliance of the Irish economy on construction and ever rising property prices was a disaster in the making. People mostly told me to shut up.

When I said that our planning system was a recipe for corruption (in that political donations from developers play a larger part in re-zoning of land than the need or sense to having housing on said land) a college friend of mine said :

"Sure there's no harm in brown envelopes, they get things done"

This is the attitude that got us into this mess. If I were asked to look into my crystal ball and predict the future again I would say: things are going to get worse, a lot worse, and they won't improve for 10 to 15 years at least.

stevejr

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

Were you even born in the 1980's?

Yes, Dublin-January 1981. Why?

stevejr

OPENROAD wrote: »

Certainly wasn't the view of AH at the time

Forest Gump voice-" Zeitgeist is, as Zeitgeist does!

Mark200

hatrickpatrick wrote: »

I have to be honest, I don't understand why everyone cites Sept 2008 as the beginning of all this.

This is why:

http://i53.tinypic.com/zx8vup.jpg

Deleted User wrote: »

Back in 2004/2005 I was telling everyone who would listen that the over reliance of the Irish economy on construction and ever rising property prices was a disaster in the making. People mostly told me to shut up.

When I said that our planning system was a recipe for corruption (in that political donations from developers play a larger part in re-zoning of land than the need or sense to having housing on said land) a college friend of mine said :

"Sure there's no harm in brown envelopes, they get things done"

This is the attitude that got us into this mess. If I were asked to look into my crystal ball and predict the future again I would say: things are going to get worse, a lot worse, and they won't improve for 10 to 15 years at least.

People are saying crap all the time. The vast majority of which doesn't come true. Just because you allegedly got something right does not make you an expert.

"Even a broken clock is right twice a day".

And I'm bored of the "<insert thing I don't like> is why we're in this mess".

hatrickpatrick

saa wrote: »

That may be true and many more things were hitting the fan starting to crack before 08/07 but it did take time for that to filter through the working class' I suppose.

And that the problem in my view. Nobody worries or complains about anything until it directly impacts on their life.
It's the old "First they came for the jews, communists and gays, but I was none of these so I didn't speak out, then they came for me and there was no one else left to speak out for me" cliche.

World stock markets utterly collapsed in Aug-Sept '07 and they never recovered after that. The US subprime crisis had been brewing for at least a year previous, and there were constant warnings from economists that the world financial markets had become so integrated that a disaster in the US would be a disaster for everyone.

I remember at the time when people said "Meh, '08 will be a bad year but we'll bounce back in '09" :rolleyes:

I remember on "Black Monday" around Paddy's Day '08 when the ISEQ came hurtling down amid accusations of "false rumors" being spread about scandals in Anglo Irish Bank. LOL @ "false rumors". The national naivety at the time, my own included, is absolutely astounding in bitter hindsight.

pajunior

20/20 hindsight is class!

thebigbiffo

the topic mentions a conspiracy theory but it hasn't really been fleshed out...

personally, i think it's only crackpots that believe the central European powers and power brokers/banks threw money at fringe nations like us for years to get us to view Europe favourably (and pass certain treaties etc) knowing the party could not last and the bailing out of those same countries would lead to a more centralised, federal Europe ruled over by those same nations and power brokers...

yeah, crackpots...lot of yis.

and anybody who's seen my posts on this topic back in 'the good ol days', and even through the start of this recession, will know that i was very pro-Europe...it's just that the more this develops and the more i think about the causes etc the more i'm convinced this may have been contrived. it's true: 'guns were once used to take over countries, now it's money'.

Celly Smunt

recessions come booms go,booms come recessions go,it's just a matter of time and holding out,and in Ireland's case holding out is opting for a 32 inch tv opposed to a 52 inch and a car five years old rather than a brand new one,time to cop on and realise we live within other countries celtic tigers.

smash

stevejr wrote: »

But maybe 20 years from now, as we tell our "old soldier" stories. What will you say, when asked how it started, how it affected you, and, the aftermath....?

It will still be affecting us in 20 years time. We'll still be paying for it, and so will our kids.

Vicxas

I definately noticed it in the start of 2008 when shops started to close down and banks started to rein in loans.

7sr2z3fely84g5

it happened on this moment-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GrEfKXTatWE

Of course he denied that he knew it would happen,denied that was warned,and then this happened-

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/republic-of-ireland/bertie-ahern-and-brain-cowen-lsquoignored-irish-financial-meltdown-warningsrsquo-15101029.html

The report, compiled by Canadian expert Rob Wright, exposes how Department of Finance officials repeatedly warned the Irish government about the dangers of its economic policies over the last 10 years. But crucially, their advice was ignored.

dsmythy

RTE report from November 2007

http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/1114/mortgages.html

The governor of the central bank is a genius clearly.


Also the good people of After Hours mostly had it sussed not to vote for FF in 2007.

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055065786

RichieC

Resession = when rich people start losing money.

Happy days= when the poor quietly suffer and the rich get richer and fatter.

Jonny7

stevejr wrote: »

...,September 2008 was when I started to realise that the **** was definately gonna hit the fan. It just didn't register before then. Been worried ever since.

My country took a f**ckin nose-dive off the top-step on any an important flights of stairs that matter. Our country has landed on it's face. We're all different. Nothing is the same now.

So 1095 days later and the **** (political, economic, or social) continues to hit the fan, and hard. When will it end?

But maybe 20 years from now, as we tell our "old soldier" stories. What will you say, when asked how it started, how it affected you, and, the aftermath....?

I'd recommend not telling any Africans or Chinese or Indians .. they might not be able to handle the magnitude of the hardship we have had to suffer

Zebra3

Naomi00 wrote: »

In 2007, my history/geography teacher kept insisting that there would be a recession. At the time there was no talk about problems with the economy.

There was talk about problems in the economy in 2007.

And Blankcheque Bertie told those who were talking about the problems to go and commit suicide.

To much laughter from his audience. :rolleyes:

mikemac

Brian Lenihan went on the news from Brussels and did a live interview denying we would be seeking support from Europe

Two days later...........

I was more a fool for actually believing him
Sure why would a man go on live TV and lie to the nation

inmyday

WE DIDN'T LISTEN!

mikemac

November 2008, country heads downhill and regulator increases taxi prices :rolleyes:

Zebra3

mikemac wrote: »

Brian Lenihan went on the news from Brussels and did a live interview denying we would be seeking support from Europe

Two days later...........

I was more a fool for actually leaving him

Had you been dating long? :pac:

mikemac

Ye are like sharks, waiting to pounce on anything

msg11

What is the future for Ireland?

Like what is this country? What do Europe want from us? We need a new industry which seems to be IT at the moment with alot of IT companys setting up HQ here but they are mainly American. What if they **** up?

We need to start our own companys like Tesco etc.. Dunnes if they went global but they don't seem to want to even try.

We need to become our own Multinational country suppling jobs for our people and jobs for other people it's a two way street the Irish seem to think that all jobs in Ireland are for Irish people, when the companys in the first place are not Irish.

An example of a multinational company we could have started was supplying energy from the West Coast oil find.

People moaning all day long about the recession and whos to blame. Fact is we are here now, and the only way to get out of it is work our bollix off too pay off the bill FF has laid on this country and make sure it never happens again.

mikemac

We have some of the best meat and dairy produce in the world
Kerry Group started as a co-op.
Glenlisk was a family run operation and then massive corporation Danone bought into them
Sudocream is known around Europe and a household brand here and that's an Irish company who invented it.

Lots of things we do well
Just need more of these

Obelisk

looky loo wrote: »

'The future isn't what it used to be'.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Euz82Ws1z08

inmyday wrote: »

WE DIDN'T LISTEN!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eQuFP_KOZus

If we accept that this deal was never meant to provide justice to the people of Ireland, then we have to judge its success or failure on other grounds, the ones it was designed to fulfill. From that perspective the willingness of the rulers of the French, Germans, British and others to drive countries like Ireland and Greece and Portugal, each of us less than 2% of the Eurozone economy, into ruination is understandable, albeit unforgiveable. Just as there is no honour amongst theives, so there is no solidarity amongst capitalists.

squod

Obelisk wrote: »

If we accept that this deal was never meant to provide justice to the people of Ireland, then we have to judge its success or failure on other grounds, the ones it was designed to fulfill. From that perspective the willingness of the rulers of the French, Germans, British and others to drive countries like Ireland and Greece and Portugal, each of us less than 2% of the Eurozone economy, into ruination is understandable, albeit unforgiveable. Just as there is no honour amongst theives, so there is no solidarity amongst capitalists.

More RTE sponsored rubbish. The two Brians sold the country for their own reasons. Europe didn't react in time that's for sure. But blaming Europe for Brian Lenihan's mess is a step too far. If there is to be anything written about this in history it should be the truth. Not some anti-Europe conspiracy theory.


http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2056054930

Obelisk

squod wrote: »

More RTE sponsored rubbish. The two Brians sold the country for their own reasons. Europe didn't react in time that's for sure. But blaming Europe for Brian Lenihan's mess is a step too far. If there is to be anything written about this in history it should be the truth. Not some anti-Europe conspiracy theory.

Did you watch the video? I know we were sold out.

So tell us, who exactly did they sell out to...

squod

Obelisk wrote: »

Did you watch the video? I know we were sold out.

So tell us, who exactly did they sell out to...

I haven't. Many apologies, way too exciting for me. Spooky music and dramatic editing kinda puts me off videos like that. I don't think it matters who benefited. The people who are responsible got away with it (so far....).

Obelisk

squod wrote: »

I haven't. Many apologies, way too exciting for me. Spooky music and dramatic editing kinda puts me off videos like that. I don't think it matters who benefited. The people who are responsible got away with it (so far....).

Any better?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WUefwYXG-hc

Naomi00

Zebra3 wrote: »

There was talk about problems in the economy in 2007.

And Blankcheque Bertie told those who were talking about the problems to go and commit suicide.

To much laughter from his audience. :rolleyes:

I know but it was early 2007. There hadn't been anything in the media, I don't think so anyway.

7sr2z3fely84g5

Who remembers this classic,there was uproar in this country for such a suggestion,that man should had got an award for his honesty!,foward to 0.40-

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cAhiP2__B2U

mikemac

Anyone remember this speech, people got angry :mad:
And the German ambassador was asked to apoloigze

Ireland was a "coarse place".
Junior ministers here earned more than the German Chancellor.
Some 20pc of the population were public servants.
Our "chaotic" hospital waiting lists would not be tolerated anywhere else.
Wage demands were too high.
Our immigration policy was wrong and we had learned nothing from Germany or the Nordic countries.
He also cited the doctors' rejection of €200,000 a year posts on the basis that this sum was "Mickey Mouse" money and referred to the former dominant position of the Catholic Church

Truth hurts I suppose

7sr2z3fely84g5

mikemac wrote: »

Anyone remember this speech, people got angry :mad:
And the German ambassador was asked to apoloigze


Truth hurts I suppose

yeah i do,heres a wonderful hindsight from it-
http://www.irishabroad.com/news/irish-voice/news/GermanEnvoyCriticizesIrish240907.aspx

Foreign Minister Dermot Ahern was said to be furious when the content of the ambassador’s speech to German businessmen at Clontarf Castle in Dublin was reported to him.

And then in 2010-
http://www.examiner.ie/home/318k-windfall-as-ahern-bails-out-of-dail-138144.html

He will be paid four times the average industrial wage in his pension entitlements, which include:

- €17,763 lump sum worth two months of a TD’s pay when he retires.

- €159,873 golden handshake severance payment in a lump sum, worth one and a half years of a TD’s salary.

- €66,611 TD pension in the first year after retirement.

- €53,291 annual TD pension every year after that.

- €36,750 as a ministerial step-down payment in the first six months after retirement, based on 75% of his current ministerial salary.

- €75,000 annual ministerial pension after that, based on 60% of his ministerial salary before it was cut in last year’s budget.

Mr Ahern will be entitled to collect his pension as soon as he retires from the Dáil. But senators and TDs elected after 2004 have to wait until the age of 65 before being eligible for such payments.

cooperguy

RichieC wrote: »

Resession = when rich people start losing money.

Happy days= when the poor quietly suffer and the rich get richer and fatter.

Absolute rubbish

bnt

The USA sets the tone for these things, and 2008 was when this all hit the headlines with the Lehman Brothers & AIG collapses, and the knock-on effects on Ireland and other countries. But it definitely didn't start there: the sub-prime mortgage crisis has already claimed victims such as Countrywide Financial.

In late 2006 The Economist was already sounding alarms, such as in this article. Note the table that lists Ireland's house price increase 1997-2006 as a 252% increase i.e. a factor of 3.5x. Did people's earnings also increase by 252%? My salary (1999-2007) didn't even keep up with the normal inflation rate. :rolleyes:

Kanoe

around 2004/5 I was suffering under a blanket of severe depression, unable to find work and living by myself, raising a child on benefits, I was scraping out an existence while my brothers and sisters were living it up at the height of the celtic tiger. Four of them married within the first few years of the millennium, they were all doing well financially and had bought themselves fine houses with massive mortgages and began starting family's. At a time when everyone else was doing well I was pretty much considered a burden on society.

Cue 2008 I finally started getting better and sought out some training and managed to gain part time employment, it wasn't anything special but enough to help me find my feet. One step at a time I began climbing back up the ladder and progressively found more and better work. At the same time one by one they started losing their jobs, their houses became financial burdens, cracks started to appear elsewhere and while they're hanging on in there, they still have families to support and mortgages to pay and in the meantime, my line of business is going from strength to strength. If it means I do better when times are rough then long may it last. I like this recession shít.

GULLION

Mark200 wrote: »

This is why:

http://i53.tinypic.com/zx8vup.jpg




People are saying crap all the time. The vast majority of which doesn't come true. Just because you allegedly got something right does not make you an expert.

"Even a broken clock is right twice a day".

And I'm bored of the "<insert thing I don't like> is why we're in this mess".

We discussed this at work in 1997 when we saw property doubling in price in our area in 5 years, we bought in 1992 for 82K (4 Bed Detached) and in 1997 they were 170K, even though the wife and I were on very good wages we could not afford at 170K lucky we bought at 82K ( Figures Adj from Punt to Euro) could not understand how people on lower wages than us could afford to buy, and figured the market would bottom out with in a year. OK it took longer, and we saw our 82K go to 350K. would not have paid that unless it came with a pool a merc and room for a pony

harmoniums

I guess I was one of the lucky ones, I saw the writing on the wall and sold my place in 2007 (for a modest profit of about 30%) moved out to California to a new job and rented.
I didn't know what to do with my sign-on bonus so I bought gold at about $680 an ounce.
I also shorted the ever living sh*t out of financials with some ETFs.
I started a side business making military style rifles (semis, not machine guns!) and had my production ramped up just prior the the election of Mr. Obama.
All the gun nuts went mad thinking he'd sign some order banning guns and panic buying started.
I callously raised my prices as it appeared the market could bear it, and made out like a bandit.
I shut the business down in 2009 and gave back my license.

Here I am in 2011, still renting, why? because we ain't done yet, housing here in the US still has another 20% or so to fall imo.

Still have all the gold I bought, but that's probably in some kind of bubble stage (beginning? end? who knows?) so I think I'll liquidate a bit, question is where to put it?

Its all swings and roundabouts though, I'm sure I'll make some dumb decision and lose what little I've scraped up in the coming years.......



(thats why you'll never hear me bitch about dole/social welfare etc, I'm not smart enough to keep my money, my current small amount of material success is an aberration when looking at my historical trends)

LightningBolt

Remember being in the dressing room after training one night when the banks were doing sale and leasebacks on all their headquarters late 2006 I think that a couple of the lads should hold off buying as prices would be odds on to fall in the coming year.

Remember well being told to f off and stop being negative.

I laugh now.

Obviously not at the lads but more the mentality that had gotten into people, prices could only go one way at the time and a lot of people failed to realise they could come crashing right down.

OPENROAD

When property prices/retail rents were on a par with some of the most exclusive parts of London, you knew something was not quite right.