Lay of the Day Thread

Oscars Well.

mike65 wrote: »

14:45 Sedgefield Aggora Novices' Hurdle(Qualifier) (4) 2m1f

Bullet Man currently about 2/1, this is my fav type of lay, a débutante over the sticks
going up against a winner with scope for improvement - Art Broker. He was poor LTO fading away badly and in a different parish as Bhaltair crossed the line but look past that and he easily has the form to win this.

Nice one Mike!

mike65

I really must start doing these for real!

mike65

16:00 Lingfield Park Ladbrokes Mobile Median Auction Maiden Stakes(6) (D.I) 6f
Lay Integrity 1.90 Jermey Noseda sends this one out on its debut against Confucius Elite and another newbie Twelve Strings (Luca Cumani/Kieran Fallon).

Confucius Elite made his debut in a class 2 event at Ascot a month ago (40/1) and needless to say was found wanting today he is back where he should have started life - in a class 6 maiden. Integrity who is entered in the Redcar Trophy may well have it within his compass to win this but is priced like a proven winner and that's worth laying.

edit Integrity wins Confucius Elite 2nd.

mailburner

love watching these threads and there's not enough of them

it would be good if a few of us could come up with a couple
of lays a day and state the reason for laying it and maybe
just lay one or two horses where everyone is in agreement

something like sole power (3.50) would be my idea of a good lay
today but i'd be hoping for the price to drop as 4.7 is a little big
when the bookies are going 3s
finished behind two of these last time out and the likes of
these races could be run a few times over with different results.
ran pretty flat last time also and has to give weight away all round

i reckon it'll be very hard to give the likes of amour proper 5lbs
and there's plenty of others to worry about

mike65

I'd agree with your pick but not at 4.00s, Amour Propre is getting back to his 2009 best and the progressive Roicead must rate a threat.

Another possible that's too long a price right now is unraced Classic Falcon in Yarmouth 2.00 a maiden going against Appointee who disappointed LTO when a short priced favourite beaten by 3.5 lengths by Besito (who is entered in the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) and therefore can't be too bad a prospect!). I think she can win today.

At 3.75 (PP) Classic Falcon is still a bit too long to lay.

edit Classic Falcon 11th of 12! Worth a lay after all

mailburner

2.20 bet maastricht 3.65

looks another fav worth taking on imo
well beaten all starts and the longer trip might bring out
some improvement but from what i've seen there'll need
to be a lot of improvement from what it's shown so far

i'd rather have the fahey horse or even the channon horse on my side here

mailburner

mike65 wrote: »

I'd agree with your pick but not at 4.00s, Amour Propre is getting back to his 2009 best and the progressive Roicead must rate a threat.

Another possible that's too long a price right now is unraced Classic Falcon in Yarmouth 2.00 a maiden going against Appointee who disappointed LTO when a short priced favourite beaten by 3.5 lengths by Besito (who is entered in the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) and therefore can't be too bad a prospect!). I think she can win today.

At 3.75 (PP) Classic Falcon is still a bit too long to lay.

i'd be happy to lay sole at 3s but that's it and i think it'll hit that price
at some stage today
i like roicead also and my idea of the winner would be him or amour

you may be right about classic falcon but i don't have the guts to
lay a newcomer when there's nothing to go on but you're right that 3.75
is just too long
it'll be interesting to see the prices come market time

mailburner

mailburner wrote: »

2.20 bet maastricht 3.65

looks another fav worth taking on imo
well beaten all starts and the longer trip might bring out
some improvement but from what i've seen there'll need
to be a lot of improvement from what it's shown so far

i'd rather have the fahey horse or even the channon horse on my side here

didn't expect that
i have a lot to learn about this craic :eek:

UrbanSea

Haha I thought that one would be worth a lay aswell mailburner

mailburner

mike65 wrote: »

I'd agree with your pick but not at 4.00s, Amour Propre is getting back to his 2009 best and the progressive Roicead must rate a threat.

Another possible that's too long a price right now is unraced Classic Falcon in Yarmouth 2.00 a maiden going against Appointee who disappointed LTO when a short priced favourite beaten by 3.5 lengths by Besito (who is entered in the Cheveley Park Stakes (Group 1) and therefore can't be too bad a prospect!). I think she can win today.

At 3.75 (PP) Classic Falcon is still a bit too long to lay.

edit Classic Falcon 11th of 12! Worth a lay after all

it was curtains for that one after a couple of furlongs by the looks of it

mike65

mailburner wrote: »

l

something like sole power (3.50) would be my idea of a good lay
today but i'd be hoping for the price to drop as 4.7 is a little big
when the bookies are going 3s
finished behind two of these last time out and the likes of
these races could be run a few times over with different results.
ran pretty flat last time also and has to give weight away all round

i reckon it'll be very hard to give the likes of amour proper 5lbs
and there's plenty of others to worry about

Finished 2nd, and went off at 6.6 (BF) so the market clearly wasn't impressed with his prospects in the ring.

mike65

Honoured 15:25 Bangor-on-dee Injured Jockeys' Fund Novices' Hurdle(4) 2m1f
Ex flat horse of Mark Prescott. Never won a race, highest OR of just 57, last race was Oct 2010. Making debut over the sticks for Nicky Henderson in what could be a well fought race, Sentimentaljourney being the prime threat I'd say.

14:00 Epsom Downs Jra/british Stallion Studs E.b.f. Median Auction Maiden Stakes(5) 7f
is worth looking at, a race with 4 likely contenders. Gunner Will is very short and this is its third race so I wonder if the trainer would want too eye-catching a run here.

Warwick has three maidens with some shorties.

edit - Gunner Will 4th, Honoured 3rd

UrbanSea

Red Aggressor 6.55 Wolv. 1.59
Think this one is much too short. Was placed in a pair of maidens before running well in the Coventry to finish ninth,beaten around 6 lenghts. He may have been flattered that day and he doesn't seem the most straightforward. May well win,but I'd rather lay than back at that price

mike65

16 40 SOUTHWELL 16:40 MAIDEN STAKES (2Y) 6f Three Sugars @2.00s on debut for Jeremy Noseda, going up against 3 quite likely contenders priced from 4.50 to 9.00s 2nd fav Scrooby Doo has shown form on fibresand and if not exactly progressive the step up in trip for 6f looks a good move.

edit - The lay wins race.

mailburner

2.10here priors gold

price too short and i think worth taking on at around evens giving
weight away to the rest and even if the second fav (spirit is needed)
doesn't beat him then it's possible something else may figure in
receipt of a stone and more
i do hate laying mcoy though

edit fell at last when booked for 2nd
fair to see the winner would have held on anyway

Eire-Dearg

Was it not her who fell?

mailburner

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Was it not her who fell?

not looking to pick winners here eire,
we're looking to pick losers so we can lay them so
mission accomplished on this occasion

Eire-Dearg

mailburner wrote: »

not looking to pick winners here eire,
we're looking to pick losers so we can lay them so
mission accomplished on this occasion

Eh I know that, you said she came second I thought she fell on the last hurdle.

mailburner

Eire-Dearg wrote: »

Eh I know that, you said she came second I thought she fell on the last hurdle.

oops!

wasn't even aware of that

mailburner

bit late but flying doctor at 3.3 seems awful short for what
the horse has achieved
recent form is nothing to write home about and seems
like further would be better imo
4.10here

edit 3rd behind an easy winner
pretty one paced in the end...maybe better over further
just my opinion
poor value at the price

mailburner

tempted to lay doctor finlay at 3.05 or so
a lot of weight and come on the irons would be
my idea of the winner

ill let this one run though but im curious to see how it gets on
4.20here 2m

edit: 2nd beaten a neck but the winner
was always holding dr finlay

something was stopping me laying it though

mailburner

5.35 uncle bryn 3..35

shown nothing so far but goes handicapping

bit late just off


edit: bit late when i started looking
plenty of money for it but well beaten

mailburner

6.20 kem conducting 2.38

has to be taken on at the price
form is very ordinary overall, ran well enough last time out
but runs before that very poor
i'd prefer the consistent chilledtothebone and there's
plenty of other possibilities like sky diamond who will
give their running
the drop in class might do the trick but i'd prefer to
lay a horse at the price that has been very disappointing.

edit: finished 4th sky diamond beats chilledtothebone.
looked a threat 2 furlongs out but ran on at one pace
beaten about a length
Just a disappointing type that has to be taken on at short odds

mailburner

7.20 kem eclipseoftheheart 2.4

torn between laying this and backing always like this at twice the odds

market says it's a 3 horse race but it's possible a newcomer might take it.

form is ordinary enough and no better than the form of always like this imo
hasn't run on this surface though so i've no idea whether that might
bring out improvement

very small stake and i'm thinking maybe i should let this one go
but i do fancy always like this to put it up to the favourite

edit: wins

mailburner

4.0here king benny 3.2

have to take this on at that price
his latest runs were very poor and although this is
a very week contest i still think it might struggle

the possible downside is that there was a lot of money for
this throughout the day and mcoy is on board so it may
be showing something at home

i'd prefer tigger myself at around the same odds and there's other
possibilities like always cruising

edit: the money was right
our benny wins

6.50 Kempton Pulverize 2.38

Lots of reasons why I reckon this price is no value at all, I expect the price to get bigger before the off
- AW debut
- 8f debut
- not bad 7f effort on it's sole start so far but nothing to get carried away with
- nothing fantastic in the breeding to encourage backing it at these odds

shameless copy and paste from my thread in challenges/logs.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.50 Kempton Pulverize 2.38..............

Well beaten but backed into 10/11 SP :eek:
I couldn't believe it when I saw the price.

UrbanSea

Graduation Night 2.55 Chepstow Lay 2.4

Easy to see why he's favourite. Went from around 6/1 inro 15/8 on his chasing debut last week when winning by 40 plus lengths. However that was good to firm and I couldn't bring myself to back a horse gone from that to heavy ground when he has no form whatsoever on heavy

UrbanSea

Sorry I forgot to write back after the other. Think that last lay won it's race by about 20 lengths.

I think Wymott could be a good lay today. Not sure what he's trading but he's an 11/4 shot. I fancied him for the Hennessy over 2 furlongs further. Although that was a much hotter race,he looked very slow to me and needs further than today, the one worry is that he'll get away with it because it isn't a great race

UrbanSea

Wymott pulls up.