Lessons you've learnt in racing

UrbanSea

Watching McCoy get beat on Banyan Tree in the last at Stratford reminded me of something I'd determined a long time ago. Some lessons I've learnt from racing.


1. Never back McCoy on an odds on chance: Anytime I've backed him odds on I've lost,I genuinely don't think I've ever backed him on a winner on a short priced favourite. Saw Banyan Tree earlier on today and laughed to myself,I think you're mad to back him

2.Watch out for 'second string' Godolphin horses:Particularly in maidens. If they have 2 runners,the seemingly second string is going to be higher priced,mainly double digits. Get on if you see this,I've noticed a lot of the time the higher priced gets placed or often wins,with the favourite being unplaced.

3.Stoutey handicap favourites: Lay lay lay. Massively underpriced and his stable has been in shockingly bad form for the guts of two years,he's just had Workforce so it hasn't been documented.
I'll put more when I can think of some.

UrbanSea

I meant to say. What are other people's?

WHIP IT!

UrbanSea wrote: »

I meant to say. What are other people's?

"Nothing better than a horse to make a liar of a man..." - sums up all the lessons I've ever learnt!

Pj!

UrbanSea wrote: »

Some lessons I've learnt from racing.


1. Never back McCoy on an odds on chance: Anytime I've backed him odds on I've lost,I genuinely don't think I've ever backed him on a winner on a short priced favourite. Saw Banyan Tree earlier on today and laughed to myself,I think you're mad to back him

These have performed much better than the average odds on horse over the last 5 years. Since 2007, He's had 358 odds on shots and 225 winners. -2.95pts to SP. Which in itself is better than average. A profit if you are backing with any guaranteed odds outfit and a profit to Betfair SP.

UrbanSea wrote: »

2.Watch out for 'second string' Godolphin horses:Particularly in maidens. If they have 2 runners,the seemingly second string is going to be higher priced,mainly double digits. Get on if you see this,I've noticed a lot of the time the higher priced gets placed or often wins,with the favourite being unplaced.

Agreed. Not blindly of course, but Godolphin have top quality horses and have no interest in odds or betting so its always worth keeping an eye on those at larger prices.

UrbanSea wrote: »

3.Stoutey handicap favourites: Lay lay lay. Massively underpriced and his stable has been in shockingly bad form for the guts of two years,he's just had Workforce so it hasn't been documented.
I'll put more when I can think of some.

'Stoutey handicap favourites' are showing a decent profit this year (backing!) of 27% ROI.



There are decent pointers though and things to follow. Don't think McCoys odds on shots are poor because you've had a loser though.

Reality > assumptions

Messi2

Biggest lesson - sports betting compared to horse racing is far less corrupt, far less secrets and fairer to punters.

tryfix

1. Stick to the kinds of races your good at picking the winners of, I always found hurdle races difficult and staying chases much easier .

2. Don't take a price on European horses in the Breeders Cup ( Arcangues won the Classic and paid 122/1 on the American tote I had taken 33/1 in the bookies) .

3. Have one decent bet on a saturday not ten small ones. It's very satisfying having a decent win on a short priced horse when your buddies are looking through the lost dockets for winners.

4. Never gamble what you can't afford to lose .

5. Never change your mind .

UrbanSea

Think I might just have bad luck with him Pj.

I don't think it's necessarily true about Godolphin,there is often plenty of money around for them when a horse is fancied,probably from stable workers.

kfallon

Always forgive a horse one bad run!

Avoid short priced favs at the Cheltenham Festival.

Don't back an Aidan O'Brien trained horse before May.

UrbanSea

That wasn't the case this year with O'Brien strangely. Perhaps he had some of his horses ready earlier because he had some ready for Dubai,but even the 2 year olds were better than usual.

gscully

Epsom Derby: Always consider an each-way bet on AOB's pacemaker

kfallon

There were still plenty who didn't win first time out tho. It's too much of a minefield trying to guess which ones are ready, best not to have a bet on the flat til May!

UrbanSea

gscully wrote: »

Epsom Derby: Always consider an each-way bet on AOB's pacemaker

I backed Treasure Beach at 33/1 this year. My eyes were nearly out of my head until he got nailed on the line. There was no way he was going to be a pace maker,even though all reporters were saying he was going to be. Why put a Chester Vase winner in as a pacemaker? Made no sense. The 100/1 placed horse last year would have been nice though.

kfallon wrote: »

There were still plenty who didn't win first time out tho. It's too much of a minefield trying to guess which ones are ready, best not to have a bet on the flat til May!

Three year old maidens were banging in at a nice rate,suppose they can't afford to give them any more time having missed their 2 year old runs

Harry Angstrom

1. Never bet in Irish handicaps.

2. Never follow the gambling stables such as Barney Curley, Tony Martin, Sir Mark Prescott etc. You'll end up tying yourself up in knots trying to second guess them. The only people who could possibly make money from following them are those with inside knowledge.

Prescott can train a decent filly from time to time (Alborada, Last Second, Hooray etc.) but avoid him in handicaps.

troops

Ignore any 'advice' given in 'Lessons you've learnt in racing' threads

mdwexford

10 year olds dont win gold cups.

They never come back.

mr.jingle

1. Never back in an apprentice or lady riders race as half of the jockeys are pretty poor.

2. Never take the form of the above races as a positive as there are so many false run races its unbelievable.

3. Never back the good thing in the first race of the Cheltenham Festival it only leads to heartbreak and a week of trying to catch up!

Shelflife

1. Never chase your losses, learn to take the hit and start afresh.

2. Take your own notes at races.

3. Trust your own judgement .

4. Never chase your losses

5.Never ever chase your losses.

mailburner

same as a lot of the above

Never chase, there's always another day (took me half my life to realise this)

never bet on irish racing unless it's decent class races
and as above, never in irish handicaps

forget about trying to make money at the galway festival, ignore the
form and just follow weld all week and you will at least make a small profit

never ever change your mind...this might lead to you chasing when you feel
you wouldve had a 6/1 winner had you not changed your mind

when it comes to sports, just bet on sports you're most knowledgeable
about and have one decent bet on that rather than doing multiple bets.
At least that way you have a chance of making profit (im working on this one)

don't follow plunge horses as like above you just don't know if they're
genuine gambles or not and the best and most recent example i can
give is the running of me fein by barney curley, despite beaten miles
in all its recent races was gambled into 2s fav and beaten 74lengths.

don't back short priced favs in big handicaps with 20-30 runners
too much can happen especially over 5/6f

never lump on a horse because he was impressive last time out
do your homework first, check the ground etc etc
ive made this mistake more than any myself
i was wetting my lips of the prospect of getting 11/10 on goldi
last monday until i realised how soft the ground was
i still nearly threw on a few quid but was delighted i resisted

don't go to the bookies first before getting your hair cut
the hair cut money (and the gambling money) will often stay with paddy and the wife
won't be happy when she sees the state of you and will be
fuming that she has to look at you until the following weekend.
im alright now though as i have no hair left

Chris Hansen

<snip>

Mod edit: No need for posts like this.

Brianderunner

1) Ignore Irish bumpers completely, licence to print money for the bookies. How many Willie Mullins hotpots get turned over?

2) When your atr, dont have a bet just to have an interest in the race like a big h'cap or something if you dont fancy anything, they never win and you end up p!ssing away your winnings from other races. You and your mate pick a horse each and have a quid on who finishes ahead of the other.

3) Nothing wrong with easing off if your well ahead. Coming away even from a day at the races when you have been up over a hundred is a sickening feeling.

longshotvalue

1) no matter how good anyone is the absolute max anyone can return on betting in racing is at most 20% ROI.. If anyone was really that good theyd never be bothered with tipping lines etc
2) Irish racing is generally shocking
3) Dont over think selections, The Blink (if anyone has ready the book) method of what sticks out from first scsn is generally better to go with.
4) dont understimate AOB's second string at big prices, loads of bookies still do.
5) never-never-never back favourties at Cheltenham (road to poorhouse)

realdanbreen

Make your bet an E/W Trixie(Perhaps an E/W Patent if the odds are high)
I find I usually get a decent return and you can make it as big or small as you wish.

RichieLawlor

aidankkk wrote: »

.
5) never-never-never back favourties at Cheltenham (road to poorhouse)

Unless the Fav is Big Bucks and the bookies are out to get him again by giving away money at Evens

Shane732

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Unless the Fav is Big Bucks and the bookies are out to get him again by giving away money at Evens

Or Quevega!

Shane732

Brianderunner wrote: »

1) Ignore Irish bumpers completely, licence to print money for the bookies. How many Willie Mullins hotpots get turned over?

Sorry but I don't agree with this one.

Paddy Mullins is the top amateur jockey in Ireland the vast majority of his wins come from his father in bumpers.

Shane732

Shane732 wrote: »

Sorry but I don't agree with this one.

Paddy Mullins is the top amateur jockey in Ireland the vast majority of his wins come from his father in bumpers.

How many of his losers come from his father in bumpers What price are the winners

Shane732

RoverJames wrote: »

How many of his losers come from his father in bumpers What price are the winners

In fairness when the majority of his rides are in bumpers for his father you'd expect that the majority of his losers would be in bumpers for his father!! You can't win every race!

Willie Mullins £1 strike rate return over the last 5 seasons:

NHF -5.37
Hurdle -222.18
Chase -26.15

He's a 28% strike rate in bumpers, which is his highest strike rate.

The statistics would suggest that really you should be backing Mullins in bumpers!!

UrbanSea

It can be a road to the poorhouse. 5/4 favourites getting beaten out of sight or else they win easily. Rather be on the second or third fav in bumpers.

Morgans

I dont understand why if the lesson to be learned is that Willie Mullins hotpots get turned over, then back the second fav each way, or lay Willie Mullins hotpots - not never back in Irish bumpers.

Same with the lesson stated earlier about never backing in Ladies races. Surely, the fact that so few of the jockeys are of proper professional ability gives the punters who cares a serious edge.

Never chasing your losses is sound and never betting more than you can afford is the golden rule.

eilo1

mr.jingle wrote: »

1. Never back in an apprentice or lady riders race as half of the jockeys are pretty poor.

2. Never take the form of the above races as a positive as there are so many false run races its unbelievable.

3. Never back the good thing in the first race of the Cheltenham Festival it only leads to heartbreak and a week of trying to catch up!

If i could thank this twice i would

Plus never back on the bumper!!!! mark my words people!

Johnny86

My own lessons
1. Try to avoid backing odds-on chances in general, its not worth it. (although i still end up doing it and getting burned, So You Think at Ascot!!!!).
2. Don't bother with lucky15's and higher, its hard to make them profitable
3. Ignore online tipsters and go with your own instinct
4. Avoid backing horses with low odds in big runner fields, something always seems to come out of the woodwork

realdanbreen

My prioreties when betting are
A: The horse
B: The trip/Going
C: The jockey
The stable

sting60

1..Never back in handicaps.2..Never back odds on.3..Never back tipsters.Always look at horse future entries in 2yr old maidens[up 5 figures on the principle only this year]Wimpole Street let it down yesterday at Killarney,but one to watch.In maiden hurdles look at flat ratings[today Sam Bass,Galway].If possible look at condition of horse in parade ring[look for plenty of rib].Jockey booking not bothered with.Always back single bets never doubles etc etc.Never look to get back losses.Never drink and bet[look at the amount bookies based beside pups].

realdanbreen

sting60 wrote: »

1..Never back in handicaps.2..Never back odds on.3..Never back tipsters.Always look at horse future entries in 2yr old maidens[up 5 figures on the principle only this year]Wimpole Street let it down yesterday at Killarney,but one to watch.In maiden hurdles look at flat ratings[today Sam Bass,Galway].If possible look at condition of horse in parade ring[look for plenty of rib].Jockey booking not bothered with.Always back single bets never doubles etc etc.Never look to get back losses.Never drink and bet[look at the amount bookies based beside pups].

Never back in in handicaps? Aren't you limiting your options big time?
Always back single bets? Unless you're putting on big money then single bets only will get you nowhere IMO.

UrbanSea

Backing doubles is a sure fire way not to win

sting60

realdanbreen wrote: »

Never back in in handicaps? Aren't you limiting your options big time?
Always back single bets? Unless you're putting on big money then single bets only will get you nowhere IMO.

To win money and that is the reason you bet,non handicaps,singles only.I have had 8 bets [sam bass today] in last month 7 winners and one close up third.Im posting my opinion only and not trying to tell anybody how to bet.

realdanbreen

UrbanSea wrote: »

Backing doubles is a sure fire way not to win

I don't agree. I'm at it a long time and I find E/W Trixies the most profitable.

UrbanSea

You are the only person I've ever heard of recommending doubles/trebles/accums. Any of those bets(including yankees or trixies) are nearly always in the bookies favour.

realdanbreen

UrbanSea wrote: »

You are the only person I've ever heard of recommending doubles/trebles/accums. Any of those bets(including yankees or trixies) are nearly always in the bookies favour.

I'm talking E/W bets here.The only time I have a single bet is A: I have info or B: I'm putting on €100+

Harry Angstrom

UrbanSea wrote: »

You are the only person I've ever heard of recommending doubles/trebles/accums. Any of those bets(including yankees or trixies) are nearly always in the bookies favour.

I remember a bookies' representative (might have been Graham Sharp from William Hill) once saying that they loved to see punters coming in with their doubles and trebles and yankees because they were the people who kept them in profit. Considering it costs 15 euro for a 1 euro Lucky Fifteen, I'd much prefer to have the 15 euro on the horse I fancied the most, instead of trying my luck on 4 horses. Most people I know who'd back accumulators might have a big win once in a while but they were usually only winning back a fraction of what they'd been putting down day after day or week after week.

As for E/W accums, you'd need to be backing horses at least 8/1 or more to be making some sort of return. I remember the owner of Monty's Pass saying that he'd often bet each way on 5/2 shots. That's madness :eek:

The only time I'd ever bet each way would be in a race like the Grand National where you could back something at half-decent odds and get a return if it finishes in the first 5. Otherwise I leave it alone.

realdanbreen

I'm not particularily interested in what a bookies representative might think but I do know that a €1 E/W Trixie costs €8. I also know that I need to win or place 3 horses to collect 3 x doubles and 1 treble. And what I definately know is that it works a treat for me.

sting60

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

I remember a bookies' representative (might have been Graham Sharp from William Hill) once saying that they loved to see punters coming in with their doubles and trebles and yankees because they were the people who kept them in profit. Considering it costs 15 euro for a 1 euro Lucky Fifteen, I'd much prefer to have the 15 euro on the horse I fancied the most, instead of trying my luck on 4 horses. Most people I know who'd back accumulators might have a big win once in a while but they were usually only winning back a fraction of what they'd been putting down day after day or week after week.

As for E/W accums, you'd need to be backing horses at least 8/1 or more to be making some sort of return. I remember the owner of Monty's Pass saying that he'd often bet each way on 5/2 shots. That's madness :eek:

The only time I'd ever bet each way would be in a race like the Grand National where you could back something at half-decent odds and get a return if it finishes in the first 5. Otherwise I leave it alone.

Perfect answer Harry.I only stay in a bookie office to write my bet on their slip and then come back to collect hours later ,the same people are still there???In the 5 mins im there they advertise over the tannoy all these great doubles,wow.Bookies are taking some hammering of these gullable punters.

realdanbreen

sting60 wrote: »

Perfect answer Harry.I only stay in a bookie office to write my bet on their slip and then come back to collect hours later ,the same people are still there???In the 5 mins im there they advertise over the tannoy all these great doubles,wow.Bookies are taking some hammering of these gullable punters.

If you are so sure of these single bets you place then surely the logical thing to do would be double them up! Even double them E/W if needs be.

realdanbreen

sting60 wrote: »

To win money and that is the reason you bet,non handicaps,singles only.I have had 8 bets [sam bass today] in last month 7 winners and one close up third.Im posting my opinion only and not trying to tell anybody how to bet.

Sorry but putting a tenner on the likes of Sam Bass @9-4 would bore me to tears.

sting60

realdanbreen wrote: »

If you are so sure of these single bets you place then surely the logical thing to do would be double them up! Even double them E/W if needs be.

Wow what a reply. Answer is very simple 8 bets over a month most entries are not even made by the trainer.Im not so sure I Should have answered that thread.

sting60

realdanbreen wrote: »

Sorry but putting a tenner on the likes of Sam Bass @9-4 would bore me to tears.

So sorry for my last comment.Ok. watch Zarzal tomorrow ,wants very heavy ground only.If for sale in October I will buy him to go jumping in heavy ground.

Harry Angstrom

realdanbreen wrote: »

If you are so sure of these single bets you place then surely the logical thing to do would be double them up! Even double them E/W if needs be.

The whole point of successful punting is being selective. Unless you really fancy two horses who are running in different races on the same day then it's pretty unlikely that you can double up your fancies.

I was in Paddy Power's this morning and some noisy twat was winning money on the South African racing. I'd bet my life savings that by lunchtime he'd be broke again. The whole point of bookie shops is for punters like that. The kind that walk in off the street and start betting on the first race that comes up on the screen. I had a friend who lost a fortune on dog races because he'd go in to back a few horses in the mornings but would invariably lose the lot of it on greyhounds. He eventually lost so much that his marriage almost ended. These are the mug punters that make up 95% of the people who frequent betting offices. Being selective is the key to either making money or keeping losses to a manageable amount.

realdanbreen

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

The whole point of successful punting is being selective. Unless you really fancy two horses who are running in different races on the same day then it's pretty unlikely that you can double up your fancies.

I was in Paddy Power's this morning and some noisy twat was winning money on the South African racing. I'd bet my life savings that by lunchtime he'd be broke again. The whole point of bookie shops is for punters like that. The kind that walk in off the street and start betting on the first race that comes up on the screen. I had a friend who lost a fortune on dog races because he'd go in to back a few horses in the mornings but would invariably lose the lot of it on greyhounds. He eventually lost so much that his marriage almost ended. These are the mug punters that make up 95% of the people who frequent betting offices. Being selective is the key to either making money or keeping losses to a manageable amount.

Since when do the doubles you select have to be running on the same day?

sting60

Harry Angstrom wrote: »

1. Never bet in Irish handicaps.

2. Never follow the gambling stables such as Barney Curley, Tony Martin, Sir Mark Prescott etc. You'll end up tying yourself up in knots trying to second guess them. The only people who could possibly make money from following them are those with inside knowledge.

Prescott can train a decent filly from time to time (Alborada, Last Second, Hooray etc.) but avoid him in handicaps.

Harry. Mark Presscott is keeping South tipperary going with all his greyhounds[Marshell prefix] a real nice guy.An outdoors man is at lot coursing meetings in Ireland.

sting60

realdanbreen wrote: »

Since when do the doubles you select have to be running on the same day?

When not entered by the the trainer ?????????

realdanbreen

sting60 wrote: »

When not entered by the the trainer ?????????

Elaborate.