The Assault on Paddy Power

paddylast · 05-08-2011 12:08am #1

Day in day out Paddy Power are making an absolute fortune and i'd like to get back the money back ive lost over the years.

Im going to start with a bank of 100 euro with an aim to double it. I dont have a deadline and not going to predict how long it will take me. I'll be betting on GAA, Premier League, Championship and bit of Rugby.

Ive realised where my mistakes are and hopefully now keeping a log i'll be on the way to profit.

paddylast · 05-08-2011 12:22am

To get the ball rolling: Opening Bank 100 euro

Dublin vs Tyrone
Dublin 8/11 - 3.00
Potential returns 5.18

Kilkenny vs Waterford
kilkenny 1/9 - 3.00
Potential returns 3.33

Bank 94.00

TheBunk1 · 05-08-2011 12:39am

How much have u lost over the years? Because you're going to be a long time getting it back with bets like that!

No point backing Kilkenny at that price.

DaveWalsh · 05-08-2011 12:48am

TheBunk1 wrote: »

No point backing Kilkenny at that price.

Especially for just 33 cent profit.

paddylast · 05-08-2011 12:56am

100-150 about on accumulators, singles matches over the past few years so not much.

I'll be staying away accumulators there is just no point as they rarely come through.

I dont see Kilkenny losing to waterford. Wateford rely on few players and if they have a bad day they'll get beaten. Yeah the odds are crap, i dont intend for every one of my bets to be at these odds.

DaveWalsh · 05-08-2011 1:07am

A win is a win I suppose. Might get the confidence up and get you on a winning streak.

Best of luck with the log anyway!

05-08-2011 9:43am

paddylast wrote: »

...............Ive realised where my mistakes are and hopefully now keeping a log i'll be on the way to profit.

paddylast wrote: »

100-150 about on accumulators, singles matches over the past few years so not much................

If you've only lost €150 over a few years you're not doing much wrong, that's only €1/week.

Putting 3% of your betting bank on a 1/9 shot doesn't tally with that record though me thinks :pac:

paddylast · 06-08-2011 1:40am

Like I said I dont intend to put all on my bets at odds like this.

I dont see Kilkenny losing to Waterford. Its a small stake, no bet is guaranteed. Its not like im putting 10-15% on it.

A win is a win and every little helps.

paddylast · 06-08-2011 2:03am

Rugby

Scotland vs Ireland
Ireland - evens @ 2 euro
Potential Winnings - 4 euro

Balance - 92 euro

SillyMcCarthy · 06-08-2011 2:11am

If only it was really this easy!

C'mon the Deise!!!!!

AstonMartin · 06-08-2011 3:02am

Already you are taking -ev bets. Thats your problem.

if you cant price up an event you shouldnt bet it.

as far as bet sizing, you cant bet too little, only too much.

E150, pffft! Are you one of those 50c ew on the favourite punters? Used to hate that working in the bookies many moons ago.

paddylast · 06-08-2011 10:37am

AstonMartin wrote: »

E150, pffft! Are you one of those 50c ew on the favourite punters?.

No

paddylast · 06-08-2011 1:27pm

Derby vs Birmingham
Birmingham 9/5 - 1.50 euro
Potential Returns - 4.20 euro

Balance - 90.50

AstonMartin · 06-08-2011 2:18pm

How are you pricing up these markets?

06-08-2011 2:36pm

AstonMartin wrote: »

How are you pricing up these markets?

Dude, in fairness it's obvious he's just having a few bets that he fancies

AstonMartin · 07-08-2011 12:04pm

true but he can give a bit of insight without breaking out the poisson distributions.

07-08-2011 1:59pm

... to me it looks a case of A is playing B, B will win, I'm backing them

paddylast · 07-08-2011 10:50pm

paddylast wrote: »

To get the ball rolling: Opening Bank 100 euro

Dublin vs Tyrone
Dublin 8/11 - 3.00
Potential returns 5.18

Kilkenny vs Waterford
kilkenny 1/9 - 3.00
Potential returns 3.33

Bank 94.00

Dublin +5.18
Kilkenny +3.33

paddylast wrote: »

Rugby

Scotland vs Ireland
Ireland - evens @ 2 euro
Potential Winnings - 4 euro

Balance - 92 euro

Lose

paddylast wrote: »

Derby vs Birmingham
Birmingham 9/5 - 1.50 euro
Potential Returns - 4.20 euro

Balance - 90.50

Lose

Bank 99.01

paddylast · 13-08-2011 11:56pm

Bank 99.01

Premier league Singles:
Over 4.5 goals

Stoke vs chelsea 5/1
1 euro : potential winnings 6 euro

West Brom vs Man Utd 4/1
1 euro: potential winnings 5 euro

Man city vs Swansea 7/2
1 euro: potential winnings 4.50 euro

Championship

Cardiff vs Bristol City
correct score 1-1 6/1
1 euro: potential winnings 7 euro

Blackpool vs peterborough
correct score 1-1 13/2
1 euro: potential winnings 7.50 euro

Bank 94.01

paddylast · 16-08-2011 1:14pm

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 99.01

Premier league Singles:
Over 4.5 goals

Stoke vs chelsea 5/1
1 euro : potential winnings 6 euro

Lose
West Brom vs Man Utd 4/1
1 euro: potential winnings 5 euro

Lose
Man city vs Swansea 7/2
1 euro: potential winnings 4.50 euro

Lose

Championship

Cardiff vs Bristol City
correct score 1-1 6/1
1 euro: potential winnings 7 euro

Lose
Blackpool vs peterborough
correct score 1-1 13/2
1 euro: potential winnings 7.50 euro

Lose

Bank 94.01

Bank 94.01

paddylast · 16-08-2011 1:48pm

Bank 94.01

All below are 2-2 correct score bets.

Watford vs West Ham 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Cardiff vs Brighton 12/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 15.6

Blackpool vs Derby 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Leicester vs Bristol City 14/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 18.00

Millwall vs Peterborough 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Total stake 6.00

Bank 88.01

mobosecomin · 17-08-2011 1:51am

RoverJames wrote: »

Dude, in fairness it's obvious he's just having a few bets that he fancies

Nothing wrong with that

17-08-2011 10:35am

mobosecomin wrote: »

Nothing wrong with that

Most definitely there's nothing wrong with that

paddylast · 17-08-2011 11:36pm

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 94.01

All below are 2-2 correct score bets.

Watford vs West Ham 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Lose
Cardiff vs Brighton 12/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 15.6

Lose
Blackpool vs Derby 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Lose
Leicester vs Bristol City 14/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 18.00

Lose
Millwall vs Peterborough 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Win +14.40
Total stake 6.00

Bank 88.01

New Bank 102.41

paddylast · 19-08-2011 12:18am

Bank 102.41

Bolton vs Man City
Man City 4/5 4 euro
potential returns 7.20

below are correct score 0-0

Aston villa vs Blackburn 9/1
1.5 euro
potential returns 15.00

Wolves vs fulham
1.5 euro
Potential returns 12.00

Bank 95.41

troops · 19-08-2011 7:02pm

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 102.41

€2.41 profit after 2 weeks...I'd say Paddy Power are bricking it

Some assault alright

paddylast · 21-08-2011 10:37pm

troops wrote: »

€2.41 profit after 2 weeks...I'd say Paddy Power are bricking it Some assault alright

why not make some constructive critism..... :rolleyes:

21-08-2011 10:50pm

Statistically a €2.41 profit from a wisely used betting bank of €100 over two weeks when the number of bets has been less than prolific is quite good really, if you keep this up you'll be flying.

Better to win €2.41 than lose it in my book

Gambling in public is less than easy, 'tis easy to criticise though if you are so inclined.

x PyRo · 21-08-2011 10:56pm

troops wrote: »

€2.41 profit after 2 weeks...I'd say Paddy Power are bricking it Some assault alright

No more posts like this please - baiting users ain't on.

paddylast · 21-08-2011 11:15pm

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 102.41

Bolton vs Man City
Man City 4/5 4 euro
potential returns 7.20

Win

below are correct score 0-0

Aston villa vs Blackburn 9/1
1.5 euro
potential returns 15.00

Lose

Wolves vs fulham
1.5 euro
Potential returns 12.00

Lose

Bank 95.41

New Bank 102.61

paddylast · 27-08-2011 11:59pm

Bank 102.61

Tottenham vs Man City
Man City -1 7/2
2 euro potential returns 9 euro

Dublin vs Donegal
Dublin 2/5
4 euro potential returns 5.60

Newcastle vs Stoke
Exactly 1 goal 10/3
1 euro Potential returns 4.33

Exactly 2 goals 5/2
1 euro potential returns 3.50

Bank 94.61

The Assault on Paddy Power

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