The Assault on Paddy Power

paddylast

Day in day out Paddy Power are making an absolute fortune and i'd like to get back the money back ive lost over the years.



Im going to start with a bank of 100 euro with an aim to double it. I dont have a deadline and not going to predict how long it will take me. I'll be betting on GAA, Premier League, Championship and bit of Rugby.



Ive realised where my mistakes are and hopefully now keeping a log i'll be on the way to profit.

paddylast

To get the ball rolling: Opening Bank 100 euro

Dublin vs Tyrone
Dublin 8/11 - 3.00
Potential returns 5.18


Kilkenny vs Waterford
kilkenny 1/9 - 3.00
Potential returns 3.33


Bank 94.00

TheBunk1

How much have u lost over the years? Because you're going to be a long time getting it back with bets like that!

No point backing Kilkenny at that price.

DaveWalsh

TheBunk1 wrote: »

No point backing Kilkenny at that price.

Especially for just 33 cent profit.

paddylast

100-150 about on accumulators, singles matches over the past few years so not much.

I'll be staying away accumulators there is just no point as they rarely come through.

I dont see Kilkenny losing to waterford. Wateford rely on few players and if they have a bad day they'll get beaten. Yeah the odds are crap, i dont intend for every one of my bets to be at these odds.

DaveWalsh

A win is a win I suppose. Might get the confidence up and get you on a winning streak.

Best of luck with the log anyway!

paddylast

paddylast wrote: »

...............Ive realised where my mistakes are and hopefully now keeping a log i'll be on the way to profit.

paddylast wrote: »

100-150 about on accumulators, singles matches over the past few years so not much................

If you've only lost €150 over a few years you're not doing much wrong, that's only €1/week.

Putting 3% of your betting bank on a 1/9 shot doesn't tally with that record though me thinks :pac:

paddylast

Like I said I dont intend to put all on my bets at odds like this.

I dont see Kilkenny losing to Waterford. Its a small stake, no bet is guaranteed. Its not like im putting 10-15% on it.

A win is a win and every little helps.

paddylast

Rugby

Scotland vs Ireland
Ireland - evens @ 2 euro
Potential Winnings - 4 euro

Balance - 92 euro

SillyMcCarthy

If only it was really this easy!

C'mon the Deise!!!!!

AstonMartin

Already you are taking -ev bets. Thats your problem.

if you cant price up an event you shouldnt bet it.

as far as bet sizing, you cant bet too little, only too much.

E150, pffft! Are you one of those 50c ew on the favourite punters? Used to hate that working in the bookies many moons ago.

paddylast

AstonMartin wrote: »

E150, pffft! Are you one of those 50c ew on the favourite punters?.

No

paddylast

Derby vs Birmingham
Birmingham 9/5 - 1.50 euro
Potential Returns - 4.20 euro

Balance - 90.50

AstonMartin

How are you pricing up these markets?

AstonMartin

AstonMartin wrote: »

How are you pricing up these markets?

Dude, in fairness it's obvious he's just having a few bets that he fancies

AstonMartin

true but he can give a bit of insight without breaking out the poisson distributions.

... to me it looks a case of A is playing B, B will win, I'm backing them

paddylast

paddylast wrote: »

To get the ball rolling: Opening Bank 100 euro

Dublin vs Tyrone
Dublin 8/11 - 3.00
Potential returns 5.18


Kilkenny vs Waterford
kilkenny 1/9 - 3.00
Potential returns 3.33


Bank 94.00

Dublin +5.18
Kilkenny +3.33

paddylast wrote: »

Rugby

Scotland vs Ireland
Ireland - evens @ 2 euro
Potential Winnings - 4 euro

Balance - 92 euro

Lose

paddylast wrote: »

Derby vs Birmingham
Birmingham 9/5 - 1.50 euro
Potential Returns - 4.20 euro

Balance - 90.50

Lose


Bank 99.01

paddylast

Bank 99.01

Premier league Singles:
Over 4.5 goals

Stoke vs chelsea 5/1
1 euro : potential winnings 6 euro

West Brom vs Man Utd 4/1
1 euro: potential winnings 5 euro

Man city vs Swansea 7/2
1 euro: potential winnings 4.50 euro


Championship

Cardiff vs Bristol City
correct score 1-1 6/1
1 euro: potential winnings 7 euro

Blackpool vs peterborough
correct score 1-1 13/2
1 euro: potential winnings 7.50 euro


Bank 94.01

paddylast

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 99.01

Premier league Singles:
Over 4.5 goals

Stoke vs chelsea 5/1
1 euro : potential winnings 6 euro

Lose
West Brom vs Man Utd 4/1
1 euro: potential winnings 5 euro

Lose
Man city vs Swansea 7/2
1 euro: potential winnings 4.50 euro

Lose

Championship

Cardiff vs Bristol City
correct score 1-1 6/1
1 euro: potential winnings 7 euro

Lose
Blackpool vs peterborough
correct score 1-1 13/2
1 euro: potential winnings 7.50 euro

Lose

Bank 94.01

Bank 94.01

paddylast

Bank 94.01

All below are 2-2 correct score bets.

Watford vs West Ham 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Cardiff vs Brighton 12/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 15.6

Blackpool vs Derby 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Leicester vs Bristol City 14/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 18.00

Millwall vs Peterborough 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Total stake 6.00

Bank 88.01

mobosecomin

RoverJames wrote: »

Dude, in fairness it's obvious he's just having a few bets that he fancies

Nothing wrong with that

mobosecomin

mobosecomin wrote: »

Nothing wrong with that

Most definitely there's nothing wrong with that

paddylast

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 94.01

All below are 2-2 correct score bets.

Watford vs West Ham 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Lose
Cardiff vs Brighton 12/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 15.6

Lose
Blackpool vs Derby 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Lose
Leicester vs Bristol City 14/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 18.00

Lose
Millwall vs Peterborough 11/1
Bet 1.20
Potential winnings 14.40

Win +14.40
Total stake 6.00

Bank 88.01

New Bank 102.41

paddylast

Bank 102.41

Bolton vs Man City
Man City 4/5 4 euro
potential returns 7.20

below are correct score 0-0

Aston villa vs Blackburn 9/1
1.5 euro
potential returns 15.00

Wolves vs fulham
1.5 euro
Potential returns 12.00


Bank 95.41

troops

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 102.41

€2.41 profit after 2 weeks...I'd say Paddy Power are bricking it Some assault alright

paddylast

troops wrote: »

€2.41 profit after 2 weeks...I'd say Paddy Power are bricking it Some assault alright

why not make some constructive critism..... :rolleyes:

Statistically a €2.41 profit from a wisely used betting bank of €100 over two weeks when the number of bets has been less than prolific is quite good really, if you keep this up you'll be flying.

Better to win €2.41 than lose it in my book

Gambling in public is less than easy, 'tis easy to criticise though if you are so inclined.

x PyRo

troops wrote: »

€2.41 profit after 2 weeks...I'd say Paddy Power are bricking it Some assault alright

No more posts like this please - baiting users ain't on.

paddylast

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 102.41

Bolton vs Man City
Man City 4/5 4 euro
potential returns 7.20

Win

below are correct score 0-0

Aston villa vs Blackburn 9/1
1.5 euro
potential returns 15.00

Lose


Wolves vs fulham
1.5 euro
Potential returns 12.00

Lose


Bank 95.41

New Bank 102.61

paddylast

Bank 102.61


Tottenham vs Man City
Man City -1 7/2
2 euro potential returns 9 euro


Dublin vs Donegal
Dublin 2/5
4 euro potential returns 5.60


Newcastle vs Stoke
Exactly 1 goal 10/3
1 euro Potential returns 4.33

Exactly 2 goals 5/2
1 euro potential returns 3.50


Bank 94.61

paddylast

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 102.61


Tottenham vs Man City
Man City -1 7/2
2 euro potential returns 9 euro

Win

Dublin vs Donegal
Dublin 2/5
4 euro potential returns 5.60

Win

Newcastle vs Stoke Should have been fulham here.

Exactly 1 goal 10/3
1 euro Potential returns 4.33

Lose

Exactly 2 goals 5/2
1 euro potential returns 3.50

Lose

Bank 94.61

New Bank 109.21

paddylast

paddylast wrote: »

..........


Tottenham vs Man City
Man City -1 7/2
2 euro potential returns 9 euro

...........

Was going to back this when I saw you tipping it but got up quite late and had top have a peak at the day's racing cards. Well done.

paddylast

RoverJames wrote: »

Was going to back this when I saw you tipping it but got up quite late and had top have a peak at the day's racing cards. Well done.

Thanks, I thought this was good value seeing as Man City has spent alot of money on strikers this year.

Derek!

Goin well, the bank is up almost 10%

paddylast

Bank 109.21

Sunderland vs Chelsea
Chelsea -1
15/8
1.5 euro, potential returns 4.31


Arsenal vs Swansea
Arsenal -1
evens
2 euro, potential returns 4 euro

Stoke vs Liverpool
Liverpool -1
7/2
1.5 euro, potential returns 6.75


Wolves vs Spurs
Spurs 7/5
1 euro, potential returns 2.40

stake 6 euro

Bank 103.21

paddylast

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 109.21

Sunderland vs Chelsea
Chelsea -1
15/8
1.5 euro, potential returns 4.31

Loss

Arsenal vs Swansea
Arsenal -1
evens
2 euro, potential returns 4 euro

Loss

Stoke vs Liverpool
Liverpool -1
7/2
1.5 euro, potential returns 6.75

Loss

Wolves vs Spurs
Spurs 7/5
1 euro, potential returns 2.40

Win

stake 6 euro

Bank 103.21

New Bank 105.61

paddylast

Bank 105.61

Fulham vs Blackburn
Fulham -1
2/1
3 euro, potential returns 9 euro.


Bank 102.61

paddylast

paddylast wrote: »

Bank 105.61

Fulham vs Blackburn
Fulham -1
2/1
3 euro, potential returns 9 euro

Lost.


Bank 102.61

Bank 102.61

Fulham vs Man City
Man city -1
6/4 5euro, potential returns 12.50

Bank 97.61

paddylast

Bank 97.61

Man City vs Everton
Man City -2
3/1
2.50 euro, potential returns 10.00

Stoke vs Man utd
Man utd -1
6/4
4 euro, potential returns 10.00


Norwich vs Sunderland
Sunderland 15/8
3 euro, potential returns 8.63


Total stakes 9.5

Bank 88.11

paddylast

Bank 88.11


Bolton vs Chelsea
Chelsea -1
11/10
5euro, potential returns 10.50

Hearts vs Celtic
4/6
Celtic
3 euro, potenital returns 5.00


Club hurling
Thurles Sarsfields vs clonoulty
2/9
Sarsfields
5 euro, potiential returns 6.11


New Bank 75.11

paddylast

Only chelsea result there.

Winnings 10.50

New Bank 85.61

paddylast

New Bank 85.61

Chelsea vs everton
Chelsea -1
evens
5 euro, potential returns 10


Newcastle vs spurs
spurs 11/8
5 euro, potential returns 11.88


new balance 75.61

paddylast

paddylast wrote: »

New Bank 85.61

Chelsea vs everton
Chelsea -1
evens
5 euro, potential returns 10

Win

Newcastle vs spurs
spurs 11/8
5 euro, potential returns 11.88

Lose

new balance 75.61

New balance 85.61

Liverpool vs Norwich
Liverpool 5/6
6 euro
potential returns 11 euro


new Bank 79.61