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What are the odds?

  • #1
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1,997 ✭✭✭ latenia


    What are the odds of just one flight recorder being recovered from a total of eight from four different planes crashing on land?
    76. In accordance with FAA regulations, United 93’s cockpit voice recorder recorded the last 31 minutes of sounds from the cockpit via microphones in the pilots’ headsets, as well as in the overhead panel of the flight deck.
    This is the only recorder from the four hijacked airplanes to survive the impact and ensuing fire.The CVRs and FDRs from American 11 and United 175 were not found,and the CVR from American Flight 77 was badly burned and not recoverable.

    http://www.gpoaccess.gov/911/pdf/fullreport.pdf

    Here's a list of every instance of non-recovery in the history of aviation, including the two planes at the WTC. Almost all of them are in extremely deep ocean.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unrecovered_flight_recorders

    Excluding 9/11, the chances of a plane crashing on land and its recorders not being recovered are 100s to 1. For this to happen several times on the same day in non-remote parts of the US I reckon we are talking about 100s of thousands to 1. Even if you take the position that the fires at the WTC destroyed those boxes completely leaving no remains (which is almost impossible given the construction of these things) there is still the matter of the two boxes at the Pentagon being unreadable.

    Without making any reference to conspiracy theories, the only logical coclusion one can draw from that part of the official report is that it's total bollocks.


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Comments



  • 9/1 ?




  • Wouldn't it be easy to fake the recordings if they had enough control to carry out 9/11.




  • latenia wrote: »
    What are the odds of just one flight recorder being recovered from a total of eight from four different planes crashing on land?



    http://www.gpoaccess.gov/911/pdf/fullreport.pdf

    Here's a list of every instance of non-recovery in the history of aviation, including the two planes at the WTC. Almost all of them are in extremely deep ocean.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_unrecovered_flight_recorders

    Excluding 9/11, the chances of a plane crashing on land and its recorders not being recovered are 100s to 1. For this to happen several times on the same day in non-remote parts of the US I reckon we are talking about 100s of thousands to 1. Even if you take the position that the fires at the WTC destroyed those boxes completely leaving no remains (which is almost impossible given the construction of these things) there is still the matter of the two boxes at the Pentagon being unreadable.

    Without making any reference to conspiracy theories, the only logical coclusion one can draw from that part of the official report is that it's total bollocks.

    Of those other flight recorders, how many were from planes that ploughed into buildings and were buried under tons of debris?
    Cause unless it's a sizeable proportion you can't really compare the 9/11 planes to other crashes.
    That is if you are being honest.




  • latenia wrote: »
    matter of the two boxes at the Pentagon being unreadable.

    United 77 and United 93 black boxes were recovered, and data was recovered




  • Ciaran500 wrote: »
    Wouldn't it be easy to fake the recordings if they had enough control to carry out 9/11.

    I never made any mention of an inside job or any other theory. I'm just saying that that part of the official report is total bollocks.
    Di0genes wrote: »
    United 77 and United 93 black boxes were recovered, and data was recovered

    As per the official report above, the CVR from American Flight 77 was badly burned and not recoverable. As these devices are located at the rear of aircraft, I'm interested in knowing what conditions existed on the lawn of the Pentagon to account for the destruction of this supposedly near indestructible device.


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  • latenia wrote: »
    I never made any mention of an inside job or any other theory. I'm just saying that that part of the official report is total bollocks.



    As per the official report above, the CVR from American Flight 77 was badly burned and not recoverable. As these devices are located at the rear of aircraft, I'm interested in knowing what conditions existed on the lawn of the Pentagon to account for the destruction of this supposedly near indestructible device.

    Like KM above said, tonnes of burning debris due to the fact that the plane was flown straight into a huge building.




  • latenia wrote: »
    I never made any mention of an inside job or any other theory. I'm just saying that that part of the official report is total bollocks.



    As per the official report above, the CVR from American Flight 77 was badly burned and not recoverable. As these devices are located at the rear of aircraft, I'm interested in knowing what conditions existed on the lawn of the Pentagon to account for the destruction of this supposedly near indestructible device.

    http://www.911myths.com/index.php/The_Black_Boxes
    An investigation into the loss of two Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLF) Boeing CH-47D Chinook transport helicopters in Afghanistan in 2005 has identified pilot error and a lack of experience in operating in difficult terrain as the main causes in both non-fatal accidents.On 27 July 2005, the crew of Chinook D-105 were flying a night mission as part of a two-ship formation to resupply Special Forces personnel, but were forced to abandon their initial landing attempt when the lead aircraft created brown-out conditions. During their second attempt, the pilots failed to notice a left-hand drift, which caused the aircraft to roll over when it touched down. Although the crew evacuated safely, the aircraft and its flight data recorder were destroyed in the resulting fire.





  • latenia wrote: »
    I never made any mention of an inside job or any other theory. I'm just saying that that part of the official report is total bollocks.
    It's been shown to you why it's not a great mystery as to why the Black Box was damaged.
    But if you're not saying it's an inside job, what possible reason would the authorise have to pretend the black box was damaged?




  • latenia,
    What are the odds of finding this plane's recorder?





  • FISMA wrote: »
    latenia,
    What are the odds of finding this plane's recorder?

    I would say close to 100% seeing as there was only a quick explosion.


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  • latenia wrote: »
    I would say close to 100% seeing as there was only a quick explosion.

    You do understand they're not made of magic right. They can be destroyed?




  • latenia wrote: »
    I would say close to 100% seeing as there was only a quick explosion.

    There was an explosion ontop of the massive energy in a plane travelling at high speed.




  • Di0genes wrote: »
    You do understand they're not made of magic right. They can be destroyed?

    Are passports made of magic? Not being an aeronautical engineer, I'd still imagine there to be considerably more of a chance of one of the blackboxes surviving the impact and explosion than the fully intact passport of Mohammed Atta.

    Just a thought.




  • macco66 wrote: »
    Are passports made of magic? Not being an aeronautical engineer, I'd still imagine there to be considerably more of a chance of one of the blackboxes surviving the impact and explosion than the fully intact passport of Mohammed Atta.

    Just a thought.

    So blackboxes are light enough to be blown clear of the wreckage, intense fires and collapse of the thousands of tons of rubble?




  • King Mob wrote: »
    So blackboxes are light enough to be blown clear of the wreckage, intense fires and collapse of the thousands of tons of rubble?

    As I said, I'm no aeronautical engineer. I don't know. Maybe you can tell me the measurements, specifications and tolerances of a boeing 767 blackbox flight data recorder.

    I am however a passport holder. I don't see even the most remote possiblity that a passport could be "blown clear" of an aluminium aircraft which has just slammed into a skyscraper at speed, travelling roughly the distance of a football pitch through an explosion, concrete and steel, and emerging fully intact on the other side dozens of stories below.

    In your opinion, what would stand a greater chance of survival? Purpose build FDR's or a passport?




  • macco66 wrote: »
    Are passports made of magic? Not being an aeronautical engineer, I'd still imagine there to be considerably more of a chance of one of the blackboxes surviving the impact and explosion than the fully intact passport of Mohammed Atta.

    Just a thought.

    A passport is paper and card, and as such can be blown free from the crash.

    A Passport, Identity Cards and even letters in the cargo hold of flight 11 and flights 175 were recovered on the street of New York after the attack. As well as flight cushions, chairs, and a variety of personal effects. Furthermore DNA evidence of most of the passengers were also found and correctly identified.

    Do you think it's astonishing that all these things survived as well as the passport?




  • Di0genes wrote: »
    A passport is paper and card, and as such can be blown free from the crash.

    Along with Mohammed Atta? Or had he left it on the dashboard?

    Remember, it wasn't just "a crash". It was a massive jetfuel propelled fireball. Seats and debris are one thing. The passport of the lead hijacker another. Just one more moment from that morning/day of having to completely suspend disbelief.




  • macco66 wrote: »
    As I said, I'm no aeronautical engineer. I don't know. Maybe you can tell me the measurements, specifications and tolerances of a boeing 767 blackbox flight data recorder.
    Nope, as I'm not an aeronautical engineer. But I'm fairly sure they aren't particularly light
    Perhaps you can show the data you are using to conclude the flight recorders should have survived and would have been found?
    macco66 wrote: »
    I am however a passport holder. I don't see even the most remote possiblity that a passport could be "blown clear" of an aluminium aircraft which has just slammed into a skyscraper at speed, travelling roughly the distance of a football pitch through an explosion, concrete and steel, and emerging fully intact on the other side dozens of stories below.
    So then all the other stuff from the planes as listed by Diogenes was all planted there so they could plant a single passport?
    macco66 wrote: »
    In your opinion, what would stand a greater chance of survival? Purpose build FDR's or a passport?
    Well you see you're presenting a false dichotomy.
    The passport is light enough to be blown clear, so has different factors effecting it's survival and would encounter different circumstances.
    Your question is loaded and misleading.




  • macco66 wrote: »
    Along with Mohammed Atta? Or had he left it on the dashboard?

    Remember, it wasn't just "a crash". It was a massive jetfuel propelled fireball. Seats and debris are one thing. The passport of the lead hijacker another. Just one more moment from that morning/day of having to completely suspend disbelief.

    Whats the difference between a seat and passport?

    Okay what's the difference between a letter and a passport.
    On Oct. 12, it arrived inside a second envelope at Mrs. Snyder's modest white house on Main Street here, and the instant she took it out and saw it, she says, chills just went over me. It was singed and crumpled. A chunk was ripped out, giving the bottom of the envelope she had sent the look of a jagged skyline. Mrs. Snyder's lyrical script had blurred into the scorched paper. The stamp, depicting a World War II sailor embracing a woman welcoming him home, was intact. Along with the letter was a note: To whom it may concern. This was found floating around the street in downtown New York. I am sorry if you suffered any loss in this tragedy. Sincerely, a friend in New York!
    Since then, Mrs. Snyder, a customer service representative at a grocery store, has discovered that she has one of only two pieces of mail known to have been recovered from the planes that crashed into the World Trade Center. At least one auction house has contacted her, saying she could sell the letter for tens of thousands of dollars.
    One Letter's Odyssey Helps Mend a Wound
    New York Times
    December 20, 2001

    Whats the difference between a passport and a VISA Card?

    120px-Waleed_Iskandar_Bank_Card.jpg

    Waleed Iskandar's bank card, Flight 11

    Passport and Wallet?

    Interview: Richard Marx discusses ending the search for remains and personal effects of World Trade Center victims at Fresh Kills
    Article from:NPR All Things Considered
    July 15, 2002

    Host: ROBERT SIEGEL Time: 8:00-9:00 PM
    SIEGEL: Ever since September 12th, Fresh Kills was Richard Marx's workplace. He was the FBI special agent in charge there, and joins us from Staten Island now.
    Agent Marx, first, can you tell us what it really has been like to go to this rather unusual workplace every day for all of these months?
    Mr. RICHARD MARX (FBI Special Agent): It's been good. I've met some of the finest people that New York City has to offer that have worked alongside of us tirelessly, recovering small bits and pieces of people' s lives. And we were finding basically the small fragments, whether it's pieces of jewelry, their personal identification, things that were recovered from on top of their desks. Just recently we found a wallet of one of the passengers aboard Flight 11, so if we can give that back to a family, I think all of us did our best to do so.

    Passport and Flight Itinerary.
    Michael Sheehan, a broker working on the 55th floor of 2 World Trade Center, moved to the stairwell when he realized a plane had crashed into 1 World Trade Center. By the time he reached the 25th floor, he could smell the fumes of fuel that had begun to filter through the ventilation systems of the two buildings. On the street, standing in a shower of office paper and the siding from the building, he found a piece of paper. It was an airliner's itinerary, listing information about a flight from Boston to Los Angeles.
    "I realized then that it was a commercial flight. Then the second plane hit. I realized then it was terror."

    In addition
    By April 30 2004, 52 of those aboard Flight 11 were identified, 45 by DNA. 26 of those on Flight 175 were identified, 26 by DNA.

    http://www.911myths.com/index.php/Personal_Effects_and_the_Crash-Proof_Passport


    So that's A Wallet, A Flight Itinerary, Passenger Remains, A Credit card.

    I think it's more plausible for a something small and light like a passport to survive than a entire seat cushion

    180px-Flight_11_Seat_Cushion.jpg

    The Object the men are looking at is a seat cushion.

    When you board a plan you often leave your passport near your seat, or in the pouch in the seat ahead of you, If a seat can survive a passport can survive..




  • King Mob wrote: »
    Nope, as I'm not an aeronautical engineer. But I'm fairly sure they aren't particularly light
    Perhaps you can show the data you are using to conclude the flight recorders should have survived and would have been found?


    See the point is neither of us is. You're making a argument of ignorance. You don't understand how it works but assume it does.

    Here's something.
    The worms and moss were in the same nine-pound locker located in the mid-deck of the space shuttle. The worms were placed in six canisters, each holding eight petri dishes. The worms, which are about the size of the tip of a pencil, were part of an experiment testing a new synthetic nutrient solution. The worms, which have a life cycle of between seven and 10 days, were four or five generations removed from the original worms placed on Columbia in January.
    http://www.space.com/missionlaunches/sts107_worms_030501.html

    Worms from the challenger disaster survived....
    So then all the other stuff from the planes as listed by Diogenes was all planted there so they could plant a single passport?

    Do you have any evidence to support this assertion?

    Would you like a load of evidence that demonstrations how in other crashes personal effects escaped the crash zone?
    Well you see you're presenting a false dichotomy.

    How?
    The passport is light enough to be blown clear, so has different factors effecting it's survival and would encounter different circumstances.
    Your question is loaded and misleading.

    As are letters, and credit cards.


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  • Di0genes wrote: »
    See the point is neither of us is. You're making a argument of ignorance. You don't understand how it works but assume it does.

    Here's something.

    Worms from the challenger disaster survived....

    Do you have any evidence to support this assertion?

    Would you like a load of evidence that demonstrations how in other crashes personal effects escaped the crash zone?

    How?

    As are letters, and credit cards.
    Um... I'm argeeing with you? :confused:




  • King Mob wrote: »
    Um... I'm argeeing with you? :confused:
    Sorry long weekend.




  • It wasn't actually Muhammed Atta's passport. It was Satam al-Suqamis. Just saying...





  • ##oops - I didn't spot this thread was 10 years old##

    It's hard to believe that anything would survive a crash like that, on first look. But when you consider the planes were travelling at least 345mph at time of impact [1], then the force of deceleration would have caused anything light and not secured to fly forward (out of pockets and unfastened backpacks). They would have been projected out to the smashed plane and through the hole on the other side of the building. In a matter of milliseconds the items would have been put out of reach the pursuing fireball.

    Blackboxes are well secured. They are designed to withstand an impact velocity of about 310 mph and survive flames up to 2,000 degrees F for one hour [2]. The combination of the crash, the fire and the collapse of the buildings would have exceeded the design strength of the blackboxes.

    1. https://web.mit.edu/civenv/wtc/PDFfiles/Chapter%20III%20Aircraft%20speed.pdf
    2. https://www.npr.org/sections/thetwo-way/2014/03/11/289189214/what-would-it-take-to-destroy-a-black-box






  • Okay, but several black boxes survived and were recovered.






  • VDR's and FDR's are designed to withstand explosions, heat and can even be found on the seabed. They are designed to withstand heat, water, freezing temperatures and even multiple atmospheres of pressure should they end up in deep sea or ocean. They are also equipped to send not only radio but also sonic signals. For them not to be found...all four is the stuff of a fairytale.

    There are two towers ablaze and people jumping to their deaths and some clown just nonchantly finds a passport a few blocks away and reports it? Why didn't this person find a watch belonging to a Chinese person or a passport belonging to a Brit or an American or a German or an Argentinian? No...he found a passport and handed it over to a cop and that passport which survived a fireball that melted a building was on the news within minutes.

    So.........who is the guy who found the passport and the cop he handed it to? Surely they should be decorated for unravelling the entire imbroglio and who was ultimately responsible? No?

    It seems we should make flight box recorders out of paper because that material lasts better a fireball than black-boxes.





  • So 3 black boxes were just destroyed in the rubble. Stopped working, never to be found. And we are to believe these fairytale stories about wedding rings being found in the wreckage. Gold bands found intact. So the jet-fuel not only melted/incinerated a body to the point that it no longers exists; not only did it have such havoc as to melt (I'm sorry "weaken" steel girders and cause a building to collapse, a building that was designed to withstand airplaine impacts) but kerosene can drop a building and burn the place almost to the ground yet a passport made of paper and wedding rigs can survive that, intact.


    Do you have a bridge to sell anyone?







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  • And Ziad Jarrah's passport as well (though badly burned).




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