2011/12 NFL Betting Thread

UnitedIrishman

With only a month and a bit away until the start of the regular season, maybe time to start thinking about those antepost betting options?

Most firms only looking at the outright betting but this is how the divisional betting is shaping up from across the water:

AFC East Division

New England 4/5
N.Y Jets 8/5
Miami 13/2
Buffalo 22/1

AFC North Division

Pittsburgh Evs
Baltimore 6/5
Cleveland 10/1
Cincinnati 14/1

AFC South Division

Indianapolis 8/13
Houston 14/5
Jacksonville 15/2
Tennessee 15/2

AFC West Division

San Diego 8/15
Kansas City 4/1
Oakland 9/2
Denver 11/1

NFC East Division

N.Y Giants 15/8
Philadelphia 15/8
Dallas 2/1
Washington 11/1

NFC North Division

Green Bay 4/7
Detroit 4/1
Chicago 5/1
Minnesota 8/1

NFC South Division

Atlanta 11/8
New Orleans 11/8
Tampa Bay 7/2
Carolina 20/1

NFC West Division

St Louis 7/4
Arizona 12/5
San Francisco 12/5
Seattle 5/1

Odds courtesy of www.amcleanbookmakers.com

---

What's your value pick(s)?

Leslie91

Houston at 14/5.

Peyton Manning

Cowboys at 2/1 is fantastic value imo.

UnitedIrishman

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Cowboys at 2/1 is fantastic value imo.

I was looking at that one aswell. Tons of injuries last season, Garrett getting a first full season with them, results picked up massively towards end of the season and a much easier schedule than the Eagles/Giants.

adrian522

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Cowboys at 2/1 is fantastic value imo.

Yep, I like Tampa @ 7/2 as well ....

Juan Pablo

Rams 7/4 looks good. Fancy Detroit to do well this year, 4/1 looks about right and might be tempted to gamble.

Raoul

Juan Pablo wrote: »

Rams 7/4 looks good. Fancy Detroit to do well this year, 4/1 looks about right and might be tempted to gamble.

Im a lions fan and I think it is difficult to look past the packers.

Leslie91

Raoul wrote: »

Im a lions fan and I think it is difficult to look past the packers.

I agree.

eagle eye

Chiefs at 4/1 look like real value to me. Bit early yet though, have to see how free agency plays out first.

Leslie91

eagle eye wrote: »

Chiefs at 4/1 look like real value to me. Bit early yet though, have to see how free agency plays out first.

Still think it's between my Bolts and the Raiders this year.

Peyton Manning

Think the Chiefs will struggle big time this year due to (a) Charlie Weiss leaving, and (b) not having as easy a schedule as year. In Weeks 11 - 15, they have the following:

@ Patriots
Steelers
@ Bears
@ Jets
Packers

They've also got the Colts, Dolphins and Lions in there, with the latter 2 expected to perform much better than last year.

Juan Pablo

Raoul wrote: »

Im a lions fan and I think it is difficult to look past the packers.

True, the 4/1 on offer reflects that and isn't impossible. I would not be surpised to see Lions & Rams in playoffs this year.

mikemac

If Wade Philips can sort out the D, the 14/5 on the Texans looks tempting

Rams at 7/4 too

Pherekydes

Packers @ 4/7 is spectacularly good value. :cool:

eagle eye

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Think the Chiefs will struggle big time this year due to (a) Charlie Weiss leaving, and (b) not having as easy a schedule as year. In Weeks 11 - 15, they have the following:

@ Patriots
Steelers
@ Bears
@ Jets
Packers

They've also got the Colts, Dolphins and Lions in there, with the latter 2 expected to perform much better than last year.

The Chargers have to go to New England, Jets and Bears also. They have to face the Packers and Ravens at home too. Its just as difficult. Ultimately imo the divisional games will be the major factor in this division as is the norm. Their improvement on defense last year was what made them so much better. Clearly on offense they improved too but Bill Muir is pretty decent in his own right.

Anyways I just think they are great value at that price. I look at them as having a 50/50 shot at winning the division so 4/1 is massive.

Peyton Manning

eagle eye wrote: »

The Chargers have to go to New England, Jets and Bears also. They have to face the Packers and Ravens at home too. Its just as difficult. Ultimately imo the divisional games will be the major factor in this division as is the norm. Their improvement on defense last year was what made them so much better. Clearly on offense they improved too but Bill Muir is pretty decent in his own right.

Anyways I just think they are great value at that price. I look at them as having a 50/50 shot at winning the division so 4/1 is massive.

Ha, I never even looked at the odds. I'd agree that 4/1 is fairly ridiculous for a team who at the very minimum are second favourites for their division. Definitely worth a punt at that price, and I suspect you'd get even better if you checked OddsChecker.com (I can't, it's blocked at work).

adrian522

4/1 seems to be the best (totesport)

http://www.oddschecker.com/american-football/nfl

johnmcdnl

eagle eye wrote: »

Chiefs at 4/1 look like real value to me. Bit early yet though, have to see how free agency plays out first.

look at week 11-15 and then 2 divisional games to end the season...

I expect that they'll be leading the was in AFC West until about week 10 but then go on a nose dive when they have to play the Patriots, Jets, Packers, Steelers and the Bears in 5 weeks

that's not going to be fun at all and could cost them the Division but saying that 4/1 is a great price... really should be more like 5/2 because any bad form from the Chargers and the Chiefs will win the division

I have the Chargers as an 11-5 season with the Chiefs on a 9-7... one or two results either way and Chiefs will take it

Amirani

Texans was my initial thought.

Matt Santos

Free Agency has changed some of the odds.. Looks like this now..

AFC
New England Patriots 10/3
San Diego Chargers 6
Pittsburgh Steelers 7
New York Jets 8
Baltimore Ravens 8

AFC East
New England Patriots 63/100
New York Jets 2
Miami Dolphins 9
Buffalo Bills 40

AFC North
Pittsburgh Steelers 1
Baltimore Ravens 5/4
Cleveland Browns 12
Cincinnati Bengals 16

AFC South
Indianapolis Colts 21/20
Houston Texans 2
Jacksonville Jaguars 7
Tennessee Titans 9

AFC West
San Diego Chargers 8/15
Kansas City Chiefs 4
Oakland Raiders 5
Denver Broncos 14

NFC
Green Bay Packers 7/2
Philadelphia Eagles 5
Atlanta Falcons 8
New Orleans Saints 17/2
Dallas Cowboys 10

NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles 6/5
Dallas Cowboys 13/5
New York Giants 11/4
Washington Redskins 14

NFC North
Green Bay Packers 8/15
Chicago Bears 5
Detroit Lions 5
Minnesota Vikings 10

NFC South
Atlanta Falcons 11/8
New Orleans Saints 11/8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17/4
Carolina Panthers 33

NFC West
St Louis Rams 7/4
San Francisco 49ers 15/8
Arizona Cardinals 4
Seattle Seahawks 11/2

Baltimore at 16/1 is huge for the Superbowl IMO..

Peyton Manning

Matt Santos wrote: »

Baltimore at 16/1 is huge for the Superbowl IMO..

Considering the favourites are around 7/1 (Packers and Patriots), I dont think the Ravens at 16/1 is too great. It's about right imo.

I'm going to ring Paddy Power and get odds for a team going 16-0 and throw a sneaky 20 quid on it.

skeleton_boy

I think the rams 7/4 is the stand out bet there.

johnmcdnl

Matt Santos wrote: »

Baltimore at 16/1 is huge for the Superbowl IMO..

there 20/1 for the NFC on PP but 16/1 for superbowl

Made a balls of that - got the price for the Vikings for NFC instead of Ravens for AFC by mistake Don't ask

skeleton_boy

Baltimore could be 1,000,000/1 for the NFC and I wouldn't bet on them












Seeing as they're an AFC team

johnmcdnl

skeleton_boy wrote: »

Baltimore could be 1,000,000/1 for the NFC and I wouldn't bet on them









Seeing as they're an AFC team

****ing **** bastard **** feck bollix fecking Viking and Ravens - always get them mixed up

Now I look like a twat :pac:


I'm after an all nighter last night - don't ask how I managed to get that confused :pac:

UnitedIrishman

After backing the Packers mid-season last year, think I'll be faithful to them again and go with them outright.

Feeling that the Cowboys could produce something this year so EW @ 18/1 I'll give a go.

Pherekydes

johnmcdnl wrote: »

there 20/1 for the NFC on PP but 16/1 for superbowl

The Ravens are 15/2 for the AFC and 16/1 for the SB on PP.

skeleton_boy

johnmcdnl wrote: »

****ing **** bastard **** feck bollix fecking Viking and Ravens - always get them mixed up

Now I look like a twat :pac:


I'm after an all nighter last night - don't ask how I managed to get that confused :pac:

Haha dont worry about it man, happens us all. I'm forever mixing up my Tuesdays and Thursdays :pac:

Hulk Hands

I'm taking peyton manning at odds against to win his division all day long. I also think the cardinals are great value at 4/1 out west. People are getting carried away with the rams, even accounting for Sam Bradford being very good. The cards have a good qb now and have at least broke even at the cb position with the loss of cromartie and addition of Peterson

spiralism

Im pumping my own team a bit but 11-1 for the Broncos to win one of the worst divisions in the NFL is a shade long, might be worth a sneaky bet? we drafted well and have had a decent free agency, lot of holes on that defence fixed and John Fox has turned around bad teams before. Worth a thought...

Chucky the tree

Donkeys won't win the division with Orton or Tebow at QB.

HEre's the win totals this season

Arizona Cardinals Over 6.5
Atlanta Falcons Over 10.5
Baltimore Ravens Over 11
Buffalo Bills Over 5
Carolina Panthers Over 4.5
Chicago Bears Over 9
Cincinnati Bengals Over 6
Cleveland Browns Over 6.5
Dallas Cowboys Over 9
Denver Broncos Over 6
Detroit Lions Over 7.5
Green Bay Packers Over 11.5
Houston Texans Over 8
Indianapolis Colts Over 10
Jacksonville Jaguars Over 6
Kansas City Chiefs Over 8
Miami Dolphins Over 8
Minnesota Vikings Over 7
New England Patriots Over 11.5
New Orleans Saints Over 10
New York Giants Over 9.5
New York Jets Over 10
Oakland Raiders Over 7
Philadelphia Eagles Over 10.5
Pittsburgh Steelers Over 11
San Diego Chargers Over 10
San Francisco 49ers Over 8
Seattle Seahawks Over 6.5
St Louis Rams Over 7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 8
Tennessee Titans Over 6.5
Washington Redskins Over 6

Bucs over 5.5, skin under 7.5 both look good. Chiefs and Raiders(:( ) under 6.5 might not be a bad one either.

Leslie91

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Donkeys won't win the division with Orton or Tebow at QB.

HEre's the win totals this season




Bucs over 5.5, skin under 7.5 both look good. Chiefs and Raiders(:( ) under 6.5 might not be a bad one either.

What does all this mean?. Over 7.5 (-130) etc???.

UnitedIrishman

Leslie91 wrote: »

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Donkeys won't win the division with Orton or Tebow at QB.

HEre's the win totals this season




Bucs over 5.5, skin under 7.5 both look good. Chiefs and Raiders(:( ) under 6.5 might not be a bad one either.

What does all this mean?. Over 7.5 (-130) etc???.

-130 is 1.77 or 77/100 in fraction.

Basically +130 means you win 130 euro for a 100 euro bet and -140 would mean you get 100 euro for a 140 euro bet.

To change it to decimal add 100 and divide by 100. And when its a minus figure you do the inverse (i.e. divide 100 by 140) and add 1. Therefore -140 becomes 1.71.

Peyton Manning

Redskins under 7.5 in that division with John Beck at QB?

Sign me up.

Amirani

Hulk Hands wrote: »

I'm taking peyton manning at odds against to win his division all day long. I also think the cardinals are great value at 4/1 out west. People are getting carried away with the rams, even accounting for Sam Bradford being very good. The cards have a good qb now and have at least broke even at the cb position with the loss of cromartie and addition of Peterson

I like this bet.

Chucky the tree

Under 8.5 wins for the 49ers is a terrific bet.

Peyton Manning

Where are you getting those odds Chucky? Can't find that Redskins or Patriots one, they're 6 and 11.5 games respectively on Bet365.

Chucky the tree

Tom_Brady wrote: »

Where are you getting those odds Chucky? Can't find that Redskins or Patriots one, they're 6 and 11.5 games respectively on Bet365.

http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/indexmember.php?sportsname=football

Pats are 11.5 on that, but skins are 7.5. No idea how legite the site is though.

Edot: I've edited the original posted and update them all now from odds checker.

tallaghtoutlaws

Chucky the tree wrote: »

http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/indexmember.php?sportsname=football

Pats are 11.5 on that, but skins are 7.5. No idea how legite the site is though.

Edot: I've edited the original posted and update them all now from odds checker.

I used to work for sportsbook.com. They are a US site based out of Costa Rica. Been around a good few years now.

coldstream4444

You can safely bet the cottage on the Patriots this year. We finally will have a defense again. 14 - 2 last year with the 30th ranked pass defense. Belichick has obviously seen enough.

Peyton Manning

I'll be betting on the Patriots because it's an America's Game masterpiece waiting to happen considering what Robert Kraft went through this summer. Talent doesn't matter in the NFL, it's always the best story that wins

johnmcdnl

lads what's the best site to use for betting on the NFL... I'm thinking of doing a bit of a log/challenge thing so I'm gonna be stuck on one site for the entire season if I do go ahead with it...

I have a PP account now but they seem to be ****e - they only have handicap betting on the games... I'd be hoping for a bit more variety in bets come the regular season at least...

any suggestions on what site to use

cheers

coldstream4444

I have used this one for years, never any problems;

http://www.sportsbetting.ag/sportsbook/nfl-football-betting/

Juan Pablo

johnmcdnl wrote: »

lads what's the best site to use for betting on the NFL... I'm thinking of doing a bit of a log/challenge thing so I'm gonna be stuck on one site for the entire season if I do go ahead with it...

I have a PP account now but they seem to be ****e - they only have handicap betting on the games... I'd be hoping for a bit more variety in bets come the regular season at least...

any suggestions on what site to use

cheers

Bet365 used to be good, I recall them allowing you pick your own line for games. Must check them out again for the coming season as I used Powers last year. Powers should have the player bets too, i.e. Stepehen Jackson over/under 89.5 rushing yards etc which can give a bit more interest on your stud fantasy players in any given week.

Peyton Manning

Bet365 give you a bonus on doubles or higher. I think it's 5% on a double, 10% on a triple and so on. Might not be the exact rates, but they definitely do offer bonuses on American Sports.

tallaghtoutlaws

coldstream4444 wrote: »

I have used this one for years, never any problems;

http://www.sportsbetting.ag/sportsbook/nfl-football-betting/

Same guys run this one as well http://www.sportsbook.ag/livesports/...sname=football <--- Link chucky put in.

Only thing about those Sportsbooks the American #cough splutter# Costa Rican based ones there is always delys with European customers getting their payouts as they use cheques or wire payment as the withdrawal methods.

I used to work for the company that ran both of those and ever since the US clamped down on gambling those sites were forever in a mess. Great sites for American odds if you dont mind the long periods getting your funds.

UnitedIrishman

Competitive ootball is back!!

Any bets fo tonights game?

Jermichael Finley - Anytime TD - 5/6
Rodgers over 275,5 passing yards - 5/6
James Starks - Anytime TD - 11/4

My bets for the night.

padraig_f

Have the Saints to win on the money-line @ 21/10, decent price. It was 19/10 the other day but public money on the Superbowl champs must've pushed it out.

UnitedIrishman

Time to bump this me thinks..

After a pretty successful weekend last weekend on the betting front (mainly thanks to Tom Brady's picks and listening to some of the talk in the college football thread - cheers lads, owe ye a pint!), what's everyone looking towards this weekend?

Some picks I'm mulling over -

Lions -3.5 - Evs
Titans -6.5 - 10/11
Chargers -14.5 10/11
Panthers -3.5 20/21

Chucky the tree

- Lions is a solid bet.
- Titans are hit and miss so it's hard to know. Broncos have a lot of guys back from injury and CJ has been very poor so far. I think there are better bets this week.
- Chargers seem easily win here, divisional game makes the it a bit tougher and the fact SD have struggled a bit themselves but can't see the chiefs keeping it within 15.
- Panthers - Very tough to know what the Jags will be like with Blaine at QB, would probably avoid this one because of that.

spiralism

Chucky the tree wrote: »

- Lions is a solid bet.
- Titans are hit and miss so it's hard to know. Broncos have a lot of guys back from injury and CJ has been very poor so far. I think there are better bets this week.
- Chargers seem easily win here, divisional game makes the it a bit tougher and the fact SD have struggled a bit themselves but can't see the chiefs keeping it within 15.
- Panthers - Very tough to know what the Jags will be like with Blaine at QB, would probably avoid this one because of that.

I disagree, +14.5 is very tempting. Also, as this site explains, there are a number of trends that suggest kansas won't get blown out...

Safest bet this week is the steelers - 10 imo.