Home and hosed, RJ's virtual €s dead certs

When Dailynaps posted the tip for Twice Over on Friday night I had a looksee at the race, I came to the conclusion that it seemed the horse was without a rival in that race, now I don't often think that, reader's of my other log will agree that most of the yokes I back are not generally that fancied (most of them lose too but that's neither here nor there :pac:). Now most of us when we started gambling weren't overly bothered about value etc as we were stuck in the mindset that if the horse wins it doesn't matter if there was any value in the price or not, back all winners and who cares. Thankfully most of us cop on after a while and get out of that mindset. Anyone who knows me knows I don't really back shortpriced favs, I have almost a disposition to back anything but in my search for value bla bla bla.

But in saying that I think it might be interesting to see how a log of what I deem to be bankers get on, now I reckon over the course of say 100 bets we'll find that at best my bank won't be much bigger than the starting point, but you never know. This log will start with a bank of €1000 (virtual bank) and the plan will be level stakes of 2% of the bank, I suppose stakes can increase with the bank, we'll see about that. We'll take a Betfair price and also see how we'd have gotten on with SP. Now I know this isn't a novel idea but at least ye know I'll more than likely stick with it for a while anyway :pac: In saying that there won't be too many of these lads as 'tis rare enough I reckon a horse has such an infallible chance.

First off is the 3.50 from Pontefract, an 8f, Class1 listed race, going forecast is good. On the official ratings the fav, Cityscape is 11lbs better than his nearest rival, a delve into the form shows that he has been running to his rating ....

14Jun11 Asc 8Gd C1G1 141K 9-0 3/7 (2¾L Canford Cliffs 9-0) 14/1 Ryan Moore 119
Canford Cliffs rated 127 in that

23Apr11 San 8Gd C1G2 45K 9-0 2/5 (2¼L Dick Turpin 9-0) 5/1 Steve Drowne 119
Dick Turpin rated 124 in that

... finishing not too far away from serious horses rated well above him.

€20 @ 1.56 on Betfair, if it wins I'll be taking the 5% off the winnings for an accurate log. I reckon SP will be 4/9 ish but we'll have to wait and see.


Post away with all thoughts, opinions etc

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

............

First off is the 3.50 from Pontefract.........

Non runner, virtual bank €1000

7.55 Bath Tenby Lady €20 at 1.67, SP to follow.

10f GF 0 to 80 HC, effectively goes off 71 in this, lto won a 0 to 90 10f by 1/2l beating a 77 rated rival home. Nothing else in the race seems to run to it's current rating, next in the ratings is rated 70. So there should be a length or two to spare

I'm almost tempted to back this myself in my real log but I won't

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.55 Bath Tenby Lady €20 at 1.67, SP to follow.
.........

Won by 3 1/4 lengths at 4/7.

Betfair returns €12.73 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €11.43 profit

Banks

Betfair €1012.73
SP €1011.43

2.35 Curragh Banimpire €20 at 1.91

Haven't posted here in a while, basically haven't seen a likely bet to be honest. This lad is rated the best of these, has a 100% record over 10f (2 from 2), has one 50% of it's 12 starts to date, goes on any ground so the good going in the Curragh today poses no problem.

UrbanSea

James that lad is a she :P

UrbanSea

UrbanSea wrote: »

James that lad is a she :P

I've mentioned more than once I'm not a form, stats nerd :pac:

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.35 Curragh Banimpire €20 at 1.91...............

Won at 4/5 SP

Betfair returns €17.29 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €16 profit

Banks

Betfair €1030.02
SP €1027.43

7.45 Nottingham Tiddliwinks €20 at 2.04.

Can't see this one being any bigger tomorrow evening and I won't be about during the day to have a peak at Betfair.

Rated 104 and has 9lbs on it's nearest rating if one takes the ratings literally. Most of it's running has been done over longer than the 5f trip and it seems to stay on well for 6f most of the time, however the reading of it's Group3 run at the Curragh is as follows "Chased leaders, 3rd halfway, improved to challenge 2f out, led 1 1/2f out, ridden and challenged inside final furlong, headed final 100yds, no extra and kept on same pace (op 11/4)"

So in a Group3 6f race at the Curragh it led at the furlong point, you'd imagine it would have the speed to cope with this lot.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

7.45 Nottingham Tiddliwinks €20 at 2.04...................

Won at 8/11 SP

Betfair returns €19.76 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €14.55 profit

Banks

Betfair €1049.78
SP €1041.98

6.20 Yarmouth Malice or Mischief €20 at 1.65

Was looking at this race last night and was thinking I nearly fancied this lad to beat Uphold, was 2.3 to win On Betfair last night with Uphold 2.1 ish iirc.
With that one now a non runner I can't see anything else posing problems for Malice or Mischief, in fairness 1.65 isn't as short as I would have expected with Uphold out of the race.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.20 Yarmouth Malice or Mischief €20 at 1.65

.............................................................................

Won at 4/9 SP, skimpy but 4/7 was available for a few mins.


Betfair returns €12.35 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €8.89 profit

Banks

Betfair €1062.13
SP €1050.87.

3.05 York Seville €20 @ 2.38

Rated 120 in this 12f Group 2 on Good to Soft
- has a touch of 2nditis but acts on good and good to soft, beaten less than a length by Treasure Beach at the Curragh, fav a length and a bit back in 4th.
- 2nd at Longshamp lto with the fav 3l back.
- Sea Moon has an awful lot to do on the ratings and 12f is an unknown, has from on heavy ground though.
- Namibian stays the trip and goes on the ground but has it to do on the ratings.

I'm due a loser in this log but other than that I see no reason why this one isn't a candidate for in here

Actually may well be a candidate for my other log too....

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.05 York Seville €20 @ 2.38..........

Beaten, S/P 5/6, would have been 5 on the trot if he had won

Banks

Betfair €1042.13
SP €1030.87

2.15 Goodwood Drunken Sailor €20 at 1.98

Much like my previous selections the big draw to this one is the rating, has a decent lash against them all with the exception of Motrice, however Drunken Sailors course and distance form on soft ground added to the higher rating takes care of that, pound for pound I'd take class over weight advantage (if ye follow my logic :pac: )........ anyway the selection........

- CD winner
- stays longer
- has from on soft
- in good form
- Kieran Fallen on board
- well in at the weights/ratings except for Motrice, class looks after that though, Motrice has had some great performances but I don't think is up to taking this

Go and collect

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.15 Goodwood Drunken Sailor €20 at 1.98

.....................
Go and collect

10/11 SP beaten, beaten doesn't begin to describe what happened, not trying to redeem myself in anyway but I feel there must have been something amiss with the horse today.


Banks

Betfair €1022.13
SP €1010.87

5.40 L'town Misty for Me €20 at 2.36

Has minimum 8lbs on this lot off OR, has won 2 of it's 3 8f races, the race it lost was a Newmarket Group 1 for fillies, the manner of defeat is a tad alarming but I imagine she wasn't 100% that day. Ground a tad softer than good won't inconvenience either.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

5.40 L'town Misty for Me €20 at 2.36..........

Well beaten

Banks

Betfair €1002.13
SP €990.87

'tis been a while since I had one for in here...

http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=75246700

€20 at 2.32

Forgot to update this, that one was 3rd....


Banks

Betfair €982.13
SP €970.87

Thread resurrection

1.35 Lingfield Encore Un Fois €20 at 1.87

Looks a two horse race between Encore Un Fois and Nibani OR 70 and 72 respectively, carrying 8 11 and 9 8 respectively so Encore Un Fois is 9lbs better off on the adjusted figures (in theory), that's a length or two at least.

Encore Un Fois has won over 10f at Kempton in November, beating Ice Cold Bex with which he was 5lbs worse off with by almost two lengths easily.

Encore Un Fois ran ok here at Lingfield but found the 12f trip a stretch, credible effort though.

Nibani has decent AW handicap form over 10f and will no doubt run a race, the rating seems about right so Encore Un Fois should get the better of Nibani.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

..........

1.35 Lingfield Encore Un Fois €20 at 1.87............

Woeful

Banks

Betfair €962.13
SP €950.87

6.30 Kempton Marajaa €20 @ 1.8

Has a right few pounds on all of these on ORs, in good form and goes on the surface. On paper shouldn't be troubled by any of them despite getting on a bit in years.

Luap

RoverJames wrote: »

6.30 Kempton Marajaa €20 @ 1.8

Has a right few pounds on all of these on ORs, in good form and goes on the surface. On paper shouldn't be troubled by any of them despite getting on a bit in years.

Easy win.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

6.30 Kempton Marajaa €20 @ 1.8.........

Won at 1/1 SP, was surprised at the drift, such is life

Betfair returns €15.20 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €20 profit

Banks

Betfair €977.33
SP €970.87

4.25 Thurles Come To The Party €20 at 2.16

Looks on a very decent mark here in a hurdle, trip and ground to suit, the rest of them look poor, topweight a bit of an unknown quantity making HC debut but Come To The Party looks very well placed.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.25 Thurles Come To The Party €20 at 2.16.........

3rd at 6/5, the unknown quantity one.

Banks

Betfair €957.33
SP €950.87

8.20 Kempton Layline €20 at 2.4

On adjusted figures has a few pounds on all of these except for the 2nd fav, Into Wain who is also a CD winner, that was a while ago though in a weak enough HC. Recent excursions have been in novice hurdles though, not something I view as a positive.

Layline won a decent HC lto over CD off 85 by almost 3l, before that again over CD was beaten 3l but that was in a conditions stakes by the 30/100fav who was on ORs had just over a stone to play with.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

8.20 Kempton Layline €20 at 2.4...........

3rd

Banks

Betfair €937.33
SP €930.87

4.10 Kempton Cristal Bonus €20 at 2.32

Minella Class is the only one I'd rank as a slight danger to this one, has loads on the rest, should be ahead of the rest by a right few lengths.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

4.10 Kempton Cristal Bonus €20 at 2.32.........

Won well at 15/8 SP

Betfair returns €25.08 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €37.5 profit

Banks

Betfair €962.41
SP €968.37

3.15 Fontwell Barbers Shop €20 at 1.56

The fitness and overall mood of Barbers Shop was a bit of an unknown to most of us before last Friday's race where he went off at a similar price in a similar race, albeit with less runners.

That race he won by 9l looking quite calm and relaxed and seemingly enjoying the experience.

The horse that was 2nd, Eleazar won off 125 over hurdles in May09 over a shorter trip, some of those in opposition today have a more credible CV in the hurdles sphere but as Hunter Chasers may or may not transfer that form.

Hills of Aran tired close home lto in a better race but had a run few weeks before that so how credible a case can be made against Barbers Shop today... there's 27lbs between them on ORs.

Barber Shop looks the winner to me if the run 9 days ago didn't have a negative impact, I wouldn't expect him to stroll home with 10l to spare but it shouldn't get too hairy either if a clear round is achieved.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.15 Fontwell Barbers Shop €20 at 1.56.....................

Won at 4/6 SP.

Betfair returns €10.64 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €13.33 profit

Banks

Betfair €973.05
SP €981.70

2.30 Leopardstown Pittoni €20 at 2.36

If in good spirits the 6yo Pittoni should take this, it's a weak race, a 12l victory over Donnas Palm in Oct and keeping within 3l of Oscar's Wells in Nov is a decent standard compared to the recent accomplishents of the opposition.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.30 Leopardstown Pittoni €20 at 2.36..........

Won at 6/5 SP, Barry dismounted after crossing the line, I hope Pittoni is ok after that run. Was a decent performance considering the adjusted ratings, only had a pound to play with compared to the 2nd, Won In The Dark, I tend to favour the rating over the weight though, 6/5 was woeful value though as three of them were much of a muchness on the figures but this log isn't about value :pac:

Betfair returns €25.84 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €24 profit

Banks

Betfair €998.89
SP €1005.7

3.30 Leopardstown Donnas Palm €20 at 3.2

The only thing putting me off this one is the price, but as mentioned recently (very recently :pac: ) the log isn't about value or price etc etc etc so I'm ignoring the decent price, if Donnas Palm was evens fav I wouldn't hesitate in throwing it in here so in here it goes

Rated 9lbs higher than the fav, Slieveardagh and in my view more suited to the 17f trip Donnas Palm main worry here would be putting in a clear round, Paul Carberry in the saddle I see as a major plus.

In the hurdles sphere Donnas Palm finished 4l behind Solwhit in 2010 which isn't bad and has seemingly taken to jumping the bigger obstacles very well.

I don't see quite why Slieveardagh is leading the market over this trip, if it was 20f fair enough but it's not.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

3.30 Leopardstown Donnas Palm €20 at 3.2...........

Well beaten by the fav.
Banks

Betfair €978.89
SP €985.7

2.05 Cheltenham Sprinter Sacre €20 at 1.91

Not much to say really, 9lbs clear on ORings and this one loves jumping and going fast

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.05 Cheltenham Sprinter Sacre €20 at 1.91............

Won at 8/11 SP

Betfair returns €17.29 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €14.55 profit

Banks

Betfair €996.18
SP €1000.25

15th March 3.20 Big Bucks €20 at 1.63

Big Bucks has the guts of a stone at least in hand on the ratings over most of these, except for Oscar Whiskey, only 7lbs better than that one but Oscar Whiskey has never ran over the trip, now in fairness Oscar Whiskey has won twice at Cheltenham over 3f shorter, looking like another 3f wouldn't be a problem.

The first of those 21f victories at Cheltenham was when beating Get Me Out of Here by under 2l, rated 14 pounds higher and carrying 8 pounds more so 6lbs better off on adjusted figures.

Two lengths is fine all considered but I don't see the likes of that being enough to trouble Big Bucks, I wouldn't be surprised for it to look like Big Bucks might be in trouble at some stage in the race but I fully expect him to find more and more as required.

With Ruby dropping the whip last year Grand Cruz was beaten quite comfortably in the end and I don't see Oscar Whiskey or any other of the contenders being capable of beating Big Bucks this time round.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

15th March 3.20 Big Bucks €20 at 1.63.............

Won at 5/6 SP

Betfair returns €11.97 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €16.67 profit

Banks

Betfair €1008.15
SP €1016.92

Simple game :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac: :pac:

2.15 Kempton Quentin Collonges €20 at 2.04

This is bet 19 I think in this log (10 of the 18 previous selections have won), better start counting them before it gets too messy


Quentin Collonges is rated 134, 6lbs higher than Problema Tic and 12lbs higher than Round Tom, the 4th horse on the card is relatively inexperienced Leg Iron.

Quentin Collonges won a 3m beginners chase lto on similar ground, I reckon that was a better race than this one, the favourite was rated 132 and though admittedly carrying 5lbs more than Quentin Collonges was beaten by 11l.

Round Tom shouldn't be able to worry Quentin Collonges at all and Problema Tic is somewhat unproven over the trip, also the horse that beat Problema Tic lto, Pentiffic hasn't impressed since so the form line isn't strong imo.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.15 Kempton Quentin Collonges €20 at 2.04...............

2nd

Banks

Betfair €988.15
SP €996.92

Bet 20 Dressedtothenines 2.55 Lim €20 at 2.34, trip and ground to suit, has a few pounds to play with too, ground a huge factor in favour.


Bet 21 3.05 Navan Folsom Blue €20 at €1.88 Stays well, has a right few pounds in hand on paper.


In a hurry to less speel than usual :pac:

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Bet 20 Dressedtothenines 2.55 Lim €20 at 2.34.........................
Bet 21 3.05 Navan Folsom Blue €20 at 1.88 ........

Both beaten...

Banks

Betfair €948.15
SP €956.92

2.40 Hexham Thelobstercatcher €20 at 1.83.
17lbs clear on the ratings from the 2nd fav, stays the trip and goes on the ground, jumping might improve from last run and if putting in a clear round should come home ahead of the rest.

3.40 Hexham Rival D´Estruval €20 at 1.6
Nothing in hand on adjusted ratings over the one contender but stays really well and anything close to the form of the October aintree HC win would be enough to take this.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

2.40 Hexham Thelobstercatcher €20 at 1.83.............

2nd

RoverJames wrote: »

3.40 Hexham Rival D´Estruval €20 at 1.6.............

Won at 4/11SP

Betfair returns €11.40 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €7.27 profit


They were bets 22 and 23.

Banks

Betfair €939.55
SP €944.19

1.45 Aintree Simonsig €20 at 1.51
On the ratings has almost a stone on the nearest rival, more on the rest, recent rain won't have done any harm to chances either.

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

1.45 Aintree Simonsig €20 at 1.51.........

Bet 24 won at 4/9 SP


Betfair returns €9.69 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €8.89 profit

Banks

Betfair €949.24
SP €953.08

Bet 25 3.25 Leopardstown Famous Name 1.99 €20.00

Rated 116 this CD winner carries 5lbs more than it's nearest rival in the market, the 108 rated 4yo, Sharestan.

Famous Name won this race last year and in 2010 off 117 but this is a much stronger renewal, however winning two years on the trot after the winter break is no doubt a point in favour of Famous Name here.

Famous name seems to be ground versatile so the good ground for today's race is no problem, Famous Name has won on soft, good, good to firm, soft to heavy, good to yielding etc etc etc etc etc etc

Sharestan has had three runs, two over 8f, winning both of them on yielding ground at the Curragh, the most recent was on the 25th March, winniing the WWW.THETOTE.COM IRISH LINCOLNSHIRE (a HC) impressively by almost 3l off 97.

It's not a two horse race but the rest don't appeal, neither does Sharestan truth be told

RoverJames

RoverJames wrote: »

Bet 25 3.25 Leopardstown Famous Name 1.99 €20.00.........

Bet 25 Won at 9/10

Betfair returns €18.81 profit (after 5% taken)
SP returns €18 profit

Banks

Betfair €968.05
SP €971.08

So after 25 x €20 bets I'm down €31.95 at taken Betfair prices and down €28.92 at industry SP

It's going much how I expected tbh