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Earthquake Swarm (11000+) El Hierro, Canary Islands

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    #32
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Duiske wrote: »
    Maq, thought you might find these couple of blog posts by Andy Scollick interesting, if you have not seen them already. http://bigthink.com/ideas/39267

    And this, a link he provided in one of the posts. Tsunami warning system for Ireland

    That blog was actually where I first heard about the swarm, always great stuff on the comments on there and some very smart people. :)


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    #33
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Latest news on the earthquake swarm.

    Total number of recorded earthquakes in this swarm is now over 620 with many more unaccounted for. Depth of the quakes is between 6km and 15km. But one was at 2km.
    Apparently the swarm is picking up again but the internet connection from the island to some of the online charts has been offline since yesterday which kinda makes it awkward to follow.
    Also this morning there has been the first indication of some ground deformation from the GPS.


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    #34
    Cherrycola
    Registered Users Posts: 1,378 ✭✭✭Cherrycola


    Ok, so for anyone travelling to the canaries this weekend, like say ME, should we be at all concerned?! :eek:
    Should we be prepared to run to high ground if we see the any large waves, or the sea going backwards?!


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    #35
    Sparkles78
    Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭Sparkles78


    Cherrycola wrote: »
    Ok, so for anyone travelling to the canaries this weekend, like say ME, should we be at all concerned?! :eek:
    Should we be prepared to run to high ground if we see the any large waves, or the sea going backwards?!

    Good question, a friend of mine is heading off there too and I dont know whether to say it to her or not... dont want to worry her for no reason :confused: Although think I woud like to know.


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    #36
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Cherrycola wrote: »
    Ok, so for anyone travelling to the canaries this weekend, like say ME, should we be at all concerned?! :eek:
    Should we be prepared to run to high ground if we see the any large waves, or the sea going backwards?!

    There is no sign of anything happening that quickly. Nearly all the quakes are down below 7km, if an eruption was getting close they would be more shallow and there would be other signs too.

    There might be an eruption coming in weeks/months/years but I don't think by this weekend. :P

    And even if there is an eruption, that doesn't mean that there will be a landslide.

    I wouldn't worry about it. :)


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    #37
    Cherrycola
    Registered Users Posts: 1,378 ✭✭✭Cherrycola


    To be honest, im not really. :p Always good to know whats going on though. ;)


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    #38
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    There has been about 2,000 earthquakes recorded in the Canary Islands since 1986. Over 600 of those have happened in this swarm over the past few days.

    Locations of all the recorded earthquakes in this swarm from July 19 to today:


    mtmahl.jpg


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    #39
    snowstreams
    Registered Users Posts: 1,315 ✭✭✭snowstreams


    Where is the caldera on this island? Has part of it collapsed into the sea?
    If there was an eruption would it occur in the same area as the seismic activity?
    It looks like it could occur in an inhabited part of the island, so there mustn't have been very much activity on this island for a long time?


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    #40
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    There's 3 volcanic areas to El Hierro. The central focus is El Golfo where the bulk of the quakes are occuring, it was once a larger island before a devestating avalanche consumed half of it about 13-15,000 years ago.

    Worst case scenario is more of those remains collapse into the sea but I very much doubt it will happen given the focus of the quakes in the shallow water/beach area. On top of that even if it did, it'll collapse into very shallow water and any landsliding won't be as dangerous as it could be in deeper water. It'll basically collapse into its own previous rubble.


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    #41
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    snowstreams wrote: »
    Where is the caldera on this island? Has part of it collapsed into the sea?
    If there was an eruption would it occur in the same area as the seismic activity?
    It looks like it could occur in an inhabited part of the island, so there mustn't have been very much activity on this island for a long time?

    Hierro is a shield volcano, it doesn't have a caldera.

    There have been several large collapses on the island, the biggest one is where the swarm is centered, the part where it looks like a big bite was taken out of the island!

    No idea where an eruption might occur. Could be a fissure or vent eruption.

    Last time it might have erupted was 1793 but there is some uncertainty if that actually happened or not. Last time it definitely erupted was around 550 B.C.


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    #42
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    cherryghost wrote: »
    Worst case scenario is more of those remains collapse into the sea but I very much doubt it will happen given the focus of the quakes in the shallow water/beach area. On top of that even if it did, it'll collapse into very shallow water and any landsliding won't be as dangerous as it could be in deeper water. It'll basically collapse into its own previous rubble.

    The quakes in the swarm so far are way too small and too deep to trigger any kind of collapse. The area where the quakes are happening might be a magma chamber starting to fill but an eruption could find an easy route to the surface somewhere else away from directly above the magma chamber. The worse case scenario I think would be for the swarm to continue, getting more and more shallow until there is an explosive eruption with large earthquakes causing a collapse of some other part of the island etc.

    The fact there has only been about 4 landslides there in about a million or so years means the chance of it happening is pretty small. :pac:


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    #43
    cherryghost
    Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 17,133 Mod ✭✭✭✭cherryghost


    maquiladora wrote: »
    The quakes in the swarm so far are way too small and too deep to trigger any kind of collapse. The area where the quakes are happening might be a magma chamber starting to fill but an eruption could find an easy route to the surface somewhere else away from directly above the magma chamber. The worse case scenario I think would be for the swarm to continue, getting more and more shallow until there is an explosive eruption with large earthquakes causing a collapse of some other part of the island etc.

    The fact there has only been about 4 landslides there in about a million or so years means the chance of it happening is pretty small. :pac:

    Well yeah that's what I meant. There's not a hope it'll happen short term at all.


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    #44
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The swarm is still ongoing and has picked up since this morning. Total number of recorded earthquakes in this swarm is now over 650. Latest quakes are between 6km and 17 km.


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    #45
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Actualidad Volcánica de Canarias are reporting more than 15 earthquakes per hour now, though nothing bigger than 2.1 and at the same depths as before so no need to worry.


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    #46
    lesserspottedchloe
    Registered Users Posts: 237 ✭✭lesserspottedchloe


    I know the chances of a volcanic landslide there veeery slim but if the worst case scenario did occur-what kind of warning systems are in place and how long do ye think it would take for a tsunami to reach our shores?


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    #47
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    laylah wrote: »
    I know the chances of a volcanic landslide there veeery slim but if the worst case scenario did occur-what kind of warning systems are in place and how long do ye think it would take for a tsunami to reach our shores?

    Based on this computer model of a catastrophic collapse at La Palma, about 4 hours.

    http://youtu.be/ArcWdSjAkRY

    There is a warning system in the planning stages.

    http://www.gsi.ie/Programmes/Bedrock/Projects/Tsunami+warning+system+for+Ireland.htm


    Edit : Quick update, via David Calvo...
    say hello to the 700th quake in El Hierro….WOW!!!!


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    #48
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    There is no end in sight to this earthquake swarm.

    Total number of recorded earthquakes in this swarm is now 768 with many more unaccounted for.

    An hour from yesterday evening for example :

    CHIE_2011-07-26_15-16.jpg


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    #49
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    I've noticed that Instituto Geográfico Nacional are now only counting earthquakes in this swarm that are over 1.5 magnitude. I don't know if they are just so snowed under that they cannot review all of them and will come back to them at a later date or what but there are way more quakes on the seismogram than what is being added to the tally.

    For example only 2 earthquakes were recorded during this hour but there is at least 12 on there.

    CHIE_2011-07-27_14-15.jpg


    Anyway, the swarm is still going strong but apart from that no other news or changes. Nobody really knows yet what (if anything) this will or won't lead to. Nothing like this has ever been recorded at El Hierro before.

    Edit : Four 2.3 quakes in the last few hours, 770+ recorded quakes and still ongoing. No trend showing them getting more shallow so need to worry about an eruption anytime in the near future uless that suddenly changes.

    Updated pic.

    AVCAN309.jpg


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    #50
    tomcosgrave
    Registered Users Posts: 320 ✭✭tomcosgrave


    Are there any theories being published as to what's happening? Doesn't look like an eruption is close at hand, but is it magma movement somwhere? Any idea of whether there's a magma chamber down there and if so, the structure of it?


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    #51
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    tomcosgrave wrote: »
    Are there any theories being published as to what's happening? Doesn't look like an eruption is close at hand, but is it magma movement somwhere? Any idea of whether there's a magma chamber down there and if so, the structure of it?

    El Hierro isn't a well studied island. The last confirmed eruption was over 2,000 years ago (there is a suspected eruption in 1793 but this isn't confirmed). They actually had to install extra GPS stations and other monitoring equipment since this swarm started because there was never a need for much monitoring there before.
    It's the first time a swarm of this scale has been detected here so it's hard to know if this is something that happens every 100 years or so and never leads to an eruption or if it is something a lot more rare that only happens in the build up to something more interesting.
    The swarm could be generated by magma moving but at the moment its all mostly around 10km down so nothing is going to happen imminently but it needs to be watched closely.


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    #52
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Swarm is still ongoing. Now over 850 earthquakes....

    This map shows the locations of the 138 earthquakes from yesterday alone.

    AVCAN319.jpg


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    #53
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    Do ye still want updates on this lads? :)

    The swarm is still ongoing.

    Over 900 earthquakes recorded now.

    An updated pic showing the locations :

    http://twitpic.com/5xc22r

    Most are still around the same depth, though there has been some more shallow quakes in the last couple of days.

    David Calvo, science presenter on Canal 24 is hinting "maybe some surprises to be announced in the next hours". I think that could be new information on GPS findings but we'll have to wait and see.


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    #54
    Sparkles78
    Registered Users Posts: 97 ✭✭Sparkles78


    Yes please :) I check in on this thread every day for updates.


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    #55
    fizzycyst
    Closed Accounts Posts: 399 ✭✭fizzycyst


    The updates are great maq, I too am checking in everyday so thanks :)

    It's going to be interesting to see what will or will not happen now.


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    #56
    je55ie
    Closed Accounts Posts: 423 ✭✭je55ie


    Love the updates, please keep it going

    Thanks

    Jessie


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    #57
    up for anything
    Registered Users Posts: 5,776 ✭✭✭up for anything


    Keep up the good work, while you do it, I don't have to. :D Instead I'm sitting keeping an eye on others.

    I'm wondering where Jake is though. It's not a bit like her to miss out on something like this. I hope she's ok and holiday accounts for her absence. Imagine if she was on El Hierro - she'd be equally excited and apprehensive. :D


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    #58
    vibe666
    Registered Users Posts: 13,016 ✭✭✭✭vibe666


    yes, very interesting indeed. i used to live in tenerife and have lots of friends there, so it'll be nice to be able to scare the bejesus out of them with this info. :D


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    #59
    LucaG
    Closed Accounts Posts: 1 ✭LucaG


    Great updates! Good Work!
    I'll go there for holiday next week :) Wanna dive in to the sea, not in lava lamp :)
    Keep me informed.


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    #60
    maquiladora
    Registered Users Posts: 11,134 ✭✭✭✭maquiladora


    The swarm seems to have calmed down/stopped for now. Either that or new earthquakes aren't been published at the moment. The online seismograms have been offline since last night so it's hard to know whats happening in real time.

    Total earthquakes recorded so far : 966

    For the most part the quakes have been too weak/deep to be felt on the surface. If you were standing on the island you wouldn't even know it was happening. :)


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    #61
    vibe666
    Registered Users Posts: 13,016 ✭✭✭✭vibe666


    maquiladora wrote: »
    Either that or new earthquakes aren't been published at the moment. The online seismograms have been offline since last night so it's hard to know whats happening in real time.
    maybe the island was swallowed whole by a massive one and the seismographs don't work underwater? :eek:


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