Autumn 2011

Blizzard 2010

Autumn is just around the corner. What are your predictions for the forthcoming Autumn Period. Mine are above average rain and average temperatures with a few decent storms. I think that late november this year will be a repeat of last year:D

maquiladora

I don't have any predictions, but here are is my hope:

Mostly warm and very dry mixed with a couple of proper windstorms swinging up from the south.

lord lucan

maquiladora wrote: »

I don't have any predictions, but here are is my hope:

Mostly warm and very dry mixed with a couple of proper windstorms swinging up from the south.

Sounds good to me. Love Autumn,favourite season of the year. Early autumn sunshine(sometimes!) giving way to clear,crisp air with the odd storm event. Bliss.:)

eskimocat

It's hard to believe that we are talking about autumn coming already... winter is always up for discussion on this forum, but autumn is a different matter

It really doesn't seem that long since the trees finally made it into bloom, etc with the frosts so late into the year, some had a struggle.

Birdnuts

Autumn will mock us by providing the type of synoptic set-ups we wanted during the summer ie. HP anchored over or just to the south of the country:rolleyes:

Pangea

Heard it mentioned a few times that October is predicted to be cold with temperatures below average. Think it was Nacho that mentioned it.

desolate sun

I'm afraid I have nothing constructive to add to this thread but I love your username Blizzard! Hoping to see some this winter!

I like Autumn, I love the cooler days and blowing leaves. I do love our changing seasons, there's so much variety even in our mild climate.
But my favourite is Winter. I always see the old mythological image of Father Winter (or whatever he's called) in my head when I think of it.
Sorry I am blabbing and going off the point.

Autumn rules!

Blizzard 2010

I have just noticed a lot of folage turning colour. My blackberry bush which fruits late august early September have started to fruit already. Someone told me that it was due to warm spring but we had a warm spring and cool summer in 2007 and the blackberry bush didnt fruit till early september. Maybe Nature thinks we have gone into Autumn mode already.

Big Tone

Pangea wrote: »

Heard it mentioned a few times that October is predicted to be cold with temperatures below average. Think it was Nacho that mentioned it.

It was cold last October too, I remember saying to the missus that we were in for a long cold winter.....and I think we're in for the same this year.

Rocky Bay

somebody was being interviewed Monday on RTE for Six/One and the young tree in the background outside the building and beside the path up to the building had its leave's already turning! I hope to spend the month of October in North Galway...walking lanes and boreens just admiring the colors. (wish I could remember who was being interviewed or the story...that tree was already way into autumn.)

Harps

Probably the summer school in Glenties? Most leaves up here have been brown all summer after the storms in May

Blizzard 2010

picked my first Blacberries today. 1 month ahead. Just back from the West of Ireland. Was driving around sligo and all the way back to Dublin folage has either or changed. Stragely some of my fruit trees didnt produce fruit this year after flowering in May/June

Cerocco

I love Autumn and Winter. I hope it comes early and stays for a long time with lots and lots of snow :D:D

ednwireland

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

picked my first Blacberries today. 1 month ahead. Just back from the West of Ireland. Was driving around sligo and all the way back to Dublin folage has either or changed. Stragely some of my fruit trees didnt produce fruit this year after flowering in May/June

wind blew the flowers off

as said before we've had brown leavesup here since the storm in may

Blizzard 2010

ednwireland wrote: »

wind blew the flowers off

as said before we've had brown leavesup here since the storm in may

Not mine! Grape Vine Produced Flowers but didnt fruit.:( Some Weather sites are predicting cold autumn and early winter:D

Sponge Bob

ednwireland wrote: »

we've had brown leavesup here since the storm in may

Same in Galway, specially Sycamore which has looked autumnal all summer.

suitseir

Big Tone wrote: »

It was cold last October too, I remember saying to the missus that we were in for a long cold winter.....and I think we're in for the same this year.

I remember October very well last year (a busy month for me personally with a lot of travelling by road and air) as we had a family funeral and the weather was very good with a lot of sunshine, especially around the 20th of the month. It wasn't particularly cold.....that came in November.
Those who predicted a scorcher of a summer may have also predicted a repeat of last winter???? I hope they get that wrong too!!!!

Blizzard 2010

My Grapes have ripened and are ready to pick. First of the Autumn Season:D

Lumi

The Netweather long-range Autumn forecast is out - current unsettled trend to continue

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

thetonynator

Fionagus wrote: »

The Netweather long-range Autumn forecast is out - current unsettled trend to continue

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

Doesn't look like November will be a repeat of last year then!!!

Lumi

thetonynator wrote: »

Doesn't look like November will be a repeat of last year then!!!

'November
We're getting some way ahead at this point of the forecast, so forecast does drop away some way...'

There's always hope!

thetonynator

Fionagus wrote: »

'November
We're getting some way ahead at this point of the forecast, so forecast does drop away some way...'

There's always hope!

January will be where it's at this winter, more chance of breaking -20 then . . .:P

Lumi

thetonynator wrote: »

January will be where it's at this winter, more chance of breaking -20 then . . .:P

Still sticking with your earlier prediction!! Much better!!! :D

thetonynator wrote: »

IF June and July are cool with slightly below average rainfall and sunshine and August starts dull and broken then there will be blizzards of epic proportions for 3 months of winter . . .:D

plein de force

Hope it's a cool autumn, for some reason i can't abide when it's warm during autumn

Blizzard 2010

Fionagus wrote: »

The Netweather long-range Autumn forecast is out - current unsettled trend to continue

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=longrange;sess=

They also predicted a warm summer which never happened.:D

leahyl

What was that net weather long range forecast saying this time last year about November? The same thing hopefully cos that would mean that it's wrong! :-D

Lumi

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

They also predicted a warm summer which never happened.:D

To be honest, all of these long range forecasts should be treated as a bit of fun and nothing more.
Its just not possible to predict the weather three months in advance with any degree of accuracy - and none of the LRF's predicted a cooler than normal summer.

There's an evaluation of all of the major players here though I don't think its been updated for July yet.

pauldry

I am considering this Autumn and I think it could be warm and dry.

Mad I know but the Highs have flukily dodged us all Summer and I think when the Summer ends that everyone will get their fair share again not just the Azores hogging it.:)

Birdnuts

pauldry wrote: »

I am considering this Autumn and I think it could be warm and dry.

Mad I know but the Highs have flukily dodged us all Summer and I think when the Summer ends that everyone will get their fair share again not just the Azores hogging it.:)

Too little, too late IMO - though you could be right given the propensity of Indian summer like conditions to kick in after a poor summer

snowstreams

The hurricane season seems very sluggish so far too, with only weak tropical storms. That might mean we wont get as many tail end hurricanes, which could mean a more settled september?

dsmythy

Wouldn't mind this coming true just as we approach the Autumn then building Fat chance probably though.

NIALL D

dsmythy wrote: »

Wouldn't mind this coming true just as we approach the Autumn then building Fat chance probably though.

fat chance is right id say , prob be gone by this evening....
such a depressing summer !!! :mad:

dsmythy

First ultra tentative look at the first day of autumn. Way too soon to be very accurate but I just want to move onto the next season at this stage!





Either some nice weather or maybe a thundery breakdown. I'll take either.

dsmythy

Looks like Irene might be influencing our weather as we kick of Autumn 2011. Not sure if I want a passover or for it to intensify a high that might be dragging continental air over us. Interesting days ahead.

Blizzard 2010

After the Cool Summer we have just had. I suspect the cool theme will continue through out the Autumn. A lot of trees have changed colour already looks more like end of October than the end of August.

bb1234567

I know doesnt it feels like it could be october ! evrytime i go outide it just feels so octoberish, leaves falling..sort of coolish dull weather, some rain but still some sunshine and you can see the days getting shorter but still sorta long... and the feeling that a cold harsh winter is just around the corner

Blizzard 2010

Here we are the first day of Autumn Officially.The Models show the outlook to be very unsettled.

Harps

Small chance we'll be hit by Katia next week

thetonynator

As appeared in this weeks Farmers Journal.

A drier than average autumn can be expected with virtually all districts below average rainfall levels, with the exception of the areas around Dublin and Killarney.
The northern counties may be driest making a welcome change. Autumn may also be sunnier than average, especially in the east, southeast and south and also the northwest. The dry and sunny conditions should result in average temperatures overall.

September - Overall, September will bring a drier start to autumn. Very little rainfall can be expected this month. Only the far eastern parts of Ulster, Leinster and the southern Munster can expect a wetter than average month.
Cork can expect to be wetter, mostly as a result of a couple of very wet days around 17 to 19 September and 29 to 30 September, with the chance of local flooding.
The first two weeks should be mostly fine and dry with only isolated showers from the 1 to 4 Sept and 8 to 9 September. It is not until 16 September that the first of two major wet phrases arrives. From 18 to 21 September, a widespread rainy period sweeps across the country. A mainly fine period follows from 22 to 28 September, except for isolated overnight showers in Ulster, Leinster and Munster.
September sees slightly warmer that average temperature overall - warmer in the west and northwest. Slightly cooler conditions can be expected in Northern Ulster and the far southwest of Munster. The warmest spell is possibly during the second week. Daily maximum temperatures for the month will range between 12C and 24C, with minimums ranging between 1C and 14C.

October - October may also be drier overall in Ulster, Connacht and Munster, with Leinster fairly close to average, but much of the east may get above average rainfall.
Dublin could get up to 50% additional rainfall, while inland western counties can expect to be drier than average. The wettest area may still be Killarney, while the north and northeast of Ulster and southwest of Munster may be driest.
Precipitation may be daily through most of the first three weeks, broken only by a fine day around 7 October. Expect heavy rain on 10 and 11 October and 16 to 17 October. From 21 to 29 October it may be mainly fine and dry, apart from showers in north and west during 25 to 27 October. This spell brings chances of early snow flurries in Ulster and light to moderate sleet or snowfall, mostly overnight, for Dublin. More light rainfall is expected on 30 and 31 October.

Sunshine - Considerably more sunshine can be expected this month but overcast days are likely from 9 to 11, 13 to 14, 16 to 18 and 23 October, as well as 30 October in Ulster and Connacht. Frost can be expected around 4 to 8 October, particularly in Ulster and southwest Munster.
Overall, most can expect slightly below average daily maximums, but southwest Munster may be considerably colder, while some western counties may be slightly above average. Daily highs may steadily drop from about 18C or 19C at the start of the month to as low as 6C or 7C by the end of the month. Daily minimums may range between -7C and 13C.
Widespread frost could occur on 8 October but this will be more constant from 24 to 29 October. Record minimum temperatures as low as -7C, could occur in inland areas on 28 to 29 October.

Blizzard 2010

thetonynator wrote: »

As appeared in this weeks Farmers Journal.

wow:eek: Wonder where they get their forecast from:D

dsmythy

Harps wrote: »

Small chance we'll be hit by Katia next week

Still managing to show up on some charts

thetonynator

dsmythy wrote: »

Still managing to show up on some charts

Thats if Katia even survives as a hurricane . . .

Pangea

thetonynator wrote: »

As appeared in this weeks Farmers Journal.

You sure thats not Old Moore's Almanack :pac:
Those dates seem too exact to be a forecast.
Time will tell.

Harps

Still too far out but Katia is passing just north of Donegal on the GFS tonight, ECM also seems to be heading that way

Either way, the coming week is looking abysmal with a never ending conveyor belt of rain and strong wind from the atlantic

Edit: 18z GFS has made things even worse with even more rain and potentially very strong winds in the north :rolleyes:

Pangea

MET UK says this for end of the month.
Temperatures are likely to be below average for the majority of the country, perhaps well below average across parts of England and Wales, where the first frosts of the autumn are possible in rural areas.

Usually a good indication for the tempertures we will get.

Blizzard 2010

Autumn is in full swing now. at least its mild anyway

leahyl

Blizzard 2010 wrote: »

Autumn is in full swing now. at least its mild anyway

Mild?! I'm frozen! We even had the heating on here last night!! :-D

Pangea

Word has it that Michael Gallagher said the weather will be good for the end of September.

Birdnuts

Pangea wrote: »

Word has it that Michael Gallagher said the weather will be good for the end of September.

Too little, too late IMO:(

bb1234567

Birdnuts wrote: »

Too little, too late IMO:(

True, I'd prefer we were just in full swing autumn by then, I think hot sunny good weather is nice in first week of september maybe second,would prefer usual rainy ,unsettled, kind of cold autumn by end september start october

dsmythy

A blowy autumn day. Forecasts seem to show us on the battle line between high and low for the upcoming days. Typical variable autumn.