Not another dead cert log...

Dailynaps

Since I find it hard to keep a log atm :rolleyes: should be easier to do just these.

Of course there's no such thing as a dead cert you can bet on, these will be my max bets. The selections will be what I see as dead cert value as opposed to definite winners.

Best example would be Germany V England last summer, I thought the Germans had ~40-45% chance so certainly weren't dead certs but there was no possible way I could comprehend them not being value at over 21/10!

Will start with a 100pt bank with large staking (% wise) which is risky but will be focusing on a high strike rate and minimum variance.

Dailynaps

Selection #1.
Tour de France Andy Schleck
Thought he should have been favourite from the beginning but now with 1.5 minutes in hand over Contador, I think there's no way he shouldn't be FAV.

Schleck is just 26 and has been developing into a great rider for the last number of years. He's finished second to Alberto Contador in Le Tour the last twice and won the young riders' classification for three years running. Last year he was just an unlucky 39 seconds behind Contador - An advantage Contador had (unfairly) gained when Schleck's chain slipped on a mountain climb.

Contador is at a big disadvantage imo this year having had a tough race in the Giro d'Italia recently - a race he contested only because he was unsure whether he'd be allowed on the Tour de France. I think Contador will find it very difficult to close the gap on the fresher Schleck in the mountains next week and with Schleck's improved time trialing he has to be favourite this year.


5pts Schleck Outright @ 3.35 Betfair (Returns 16.17)
15pts Top 3 finish @ 1.37 Betfair (Returns 20.28)

Dailynaps

Selection #2.
York 3.05 Twice Over
A ridiculous price for the undisputed best horse in the race. Had to try something special lto against So You Think but ran too freely and paid for his efforts in the final few furlongs. Dominant would have to improve hugely to get near Twice Over, and while that is possible, the prices are far too close.


5pts each way 9/4 Powers or Boyles

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

York 3.05 Twice Over
A ridiculous price for the undisputed best horse in the race. .............. 9/4 Powers or Boyles

Apologies if my post is uncalled for or unwelcome
But your selection does indeed look to be ridiculously priced at 9/4 in that race, trip and ground to suit, he looks almost without a decent rival.

Dailynaps

RoverJames wrote: »

Apologies if my post is uncalled for or unwelcome
But your selection does indeed look to be ridiculously priced at 9/4 in that race, trip and ground to suit, he looks almost without a decent rival.

Not unwelcome in the slightest! Are you having a punt on him?

Certainly looks a class above his rivals here, being the only proven Group 1 horse in the line-up. Dominant won impressively at Newmarket but imagine what Twice Over could do against that type of rival.

I will indeed be backing him, twill be in my log tomorrow, cheers

Mr E

Great job, Dailynaps...

Mr E

Mr E wrote: »

Great job, Dailynaps...

Top tip indeed :cool:

Derek!

RoverJames wrote: »

Top tip indeed :cool:

Exactly, thanks for that been a good day

WeirdKen

Thanks from me too:D

A new thread to follow...

Dailynaps

Thanks lads, absolute gentlemen! Twice Over won easily enough, can't believe he actually drifted to 5/2 and went off second favourite! Onwards and upwards to Goodwood next week!

Very sad to see Rewilding fatally injured yesterday, RIP to a great horse!

Dailynaps

Selection #3.
Goodwood 2.15 Chain Lightning 8/1 Coral

Can see this one going off at half the price tomorrow, has rock solid form and has been improving with every run. Thought he would have won the Brittania at Ascot but for a bad draw but still looked impressive finishing 8th having to race in no man's land in the center of the course. Enjoys an extra 2lb cushion on Sagramor here and I'd be surprised if he didn't turn the tables. Oceanway may be the biggest danger (value-wise), having beaten the selection lto but with a another 2lb swing Chain Lightning is the selection. Will have a saver on Oceanway.

5pts each way 8/1 Coral
2pts each way Oceanway 11/1 Boyles

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

5pts each way 8/1 Coral
2pts each way Oceanway 11/1 Boyles

14pts returns 15pts :pac:

Selection #4
3.45 Goodwood Shankardeh
Won first two in France and improved to finish 3rd in a Group 2. More improvement likely and looks sure to stay the trip. Classic case of French raider not being given enough credit.

5pts each way Shankardeh 6/1 Bet365

Dailynaps

Some value away from the big two festivals today.
Selection #5
9.15 Musselburgh Last Destination
Breathing operation did the trick and landed a handicap at Beverley recently off 58, a 6lb penalty is offset by a decent 7lb claimer in this weaker contest. If this once rated 78 gelding can repeat that performace of 11 days ago he'll be very hard to beat.

5pts win 5/2 Totesport or Ladbrokes

Dailynaps

Why not to follow trends (blindly anyway)...
Totesport Mile: "Only two 3-year-old winners in last ten years."
But a little research shows that was 2 winners from just 18 runners, that's 1/9 in a 20 runner race. Also there have been three runner-ups in the time and 8 out of the 18 placed! :eek:


Selection #6
3.10 Goodwood Cai Shen
3-year-olds get a massive 8lbs allowance here and have an excellent record in the race Cai Shen ran a superb race when 2nd in the Brittania, held up in the unfavoured centre and made impressive headway and just failed to get up to Sagramor. He went up 4lbs for that run but the 3yo allowance offsets that and he's 2lbs better off with Sagramor (both get allowance) here. Latest run can be ignored completely as he had to make his own running in a messy 5 runner event. Big rub expected.

5pts each way 14/1 generally everywhere

argosy2006

Won at 9-4 , GOOD ONE

Mr E

I had a tenner in my PP account at the start of the week.
I have 70 there now, thanks to this thread.

Keep it up.

Dailynaps

Selection #7
2.05 Goodwood Joseph Henry
Has such an amazing record in this race; second in 2007, third in 2008 and won this last year. He's 7lb higher here and is a 9-year-old but showed he's in good heart winning his comeback run this season and is at least a couple of lbs better over this course and distance so should go well.

2.5pts each way 25/1 Bet365 (5 places)
____________________________________________________________

Selection #8
3.45 Goodwood Evens and Odds
Another horse who seems at least a couple of lbs better at this course. Was second in this race in 2009 and came back to win it last year. A rise of 4lbs isn't very harsh and the talented Matthew Lawson can claim 7lb from his back. Put in a good performance in the Wokingham at Ascot when 11th overall but was 4th on his stands side group. Latest run can be ignored as was bumped at the start and lost ground.

2.5pts each way 25/1 Bet365 (5 places)


Had both these last year (:D) but missed out on the double (weren't on the same day) so won't make the same mistake this year. Good place potential double.

2.5pts each way double Bet365 675/1 :eek:

Mr E

Well done... 4th for Joseph Henry. The top 3 were all pretty long too....

Dailynaps

Mr E wrote: »

Well done... 4th for Joseph Henry. The top 3 were all pretty long too....

Thanks E, didn't see the race but think he won on his side, don't know if it would have made a difference but good performance again.

Dailynaps

5pts Schleck Outright @ 3.35 -5
15pts Top 3 finish @ 1.37 +5.28
5pts each way Twice Over 9/4 +14.06
5pts each way Chain Lightning 8/1 +5
2pts each way Oceanway 11/1 -4
5pts each way Shankardeh 6/1 +2.5
5pts win Last Destination 5/2 +12.5
5pts each way Cai Shen 14/1 -10
2.5pts each way Joseph Henry 25/1 +13.13
2.5pts each way Evens and Odds 25/1 -5
2.5pts each way double 675/1 -5

Profit 23.47 ~ ROI 28%

Dailynaps

Selection #9
Limerick +9pts to beat Kerry
A massive handicap to overcome in an All-Ireland Quarter Final. Although Kerry ran out 11 point winners in this fixture in June, they were 12 points up after 25 minutes and coasted from there. But I see more of a repeat of last year's Munster Final where Kerry just saw off a good Limerick fight to win by three.

Limerick have grown in the qualifiers, beating Offaly and Waterford before staging a brilliant fight-back against Wexford. Though Tommy Lee is out, Stephen Lucey and Mark O'Riordan return from the hurlers.

Coming through the qualifiers is a huge advantage for Limerick, having played the last three weekends running. Kerry haven't played in four weeks and may have difficulty getting back up to championship pace. Tomas O Se and Paul Galvin are available again but will hardly be at peak fitness immediately. I don't see Kerry coming out all guns blazing looking for a 10+ point win but rather swagger about and get their 4-5 point victory, something they do very well.

5pts +9 evens Bet365 or Lads

Dailynaps

Selection #10
5.45 Chester Embsay Crag

Hasn't won in two years but has run quite consistently to the 80 mark and has numerous placed efforts. Has been really well backed in the last few months, notably 28s into 9s two outings ago (when he unseated rider) showing he is probably showing a bit at home.

Missed the kick lto and had little chance from there but has been dropped to 77 here which looks rather generous. Definitely isn't the least likeliest winner here, as the betting suggests.

5pts each way 20/1 Skybet (1/4 1,2,3), 1/5 odds Hills

Dailynaps

Selection #11
3.05 Newbury Brown Panther

Hammered Census by 6 lengths at Royal Ascot, can be excused last run as had to make the running on bottomless ground and only finished 4 lengths off anyway. The big 3yo allowance should see him past Meeznah and Times Up.
5pts each way 9/2 Boyles Bet365

Mr E

Clooooose!!!

Brown Panther 2nd.

Dailynaps

Selection #12
4.00 Pontefract Baptist

5th in a Group 3 last October and showed he's returning to form with a fine third in a competitive handicap at Newmarket last month. A repeat of that performance probably good enough to win this and I expect further improvement.

10pts win 2/1 everywhere


Edit: 9/4 gone too quick but 2/1 still too big.

Dailynaps

Selection #13
2.30 York Fort Bastion

His second to Maybe in the Chesham is probably the best form in the race, didn't get the run of the race lto in a Group 2 at Newmarket when the frontrunners never came back but stayed on really strongly at the end to finish a never nearer fifth. I'd definitely have him half this price or less.

10pts each way 10/1 Totesport or Bet365

Mr E

Superb call... 2nd place.
Got it at 9s.

Dailynaps

Selection #14
3.40 York Requinto

Requinto recorded a blistering time when winning the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes last month, just outside the 2yo course record at Goodwood. In comparison, Masamah (5yo) carried the same weight over the same course and distance two days later and was just 1 second quicker. However, Requinto will be getting a massive 24lbs from that rival today and really should be much shorter. Requinto is unbeaten on all 3 starts at 5 furlongs and will have learned alot from that lightning quick early pace at Goodwood and can expect similar today. Getting almost 2 stone from older horses, a repeat of that Molecomb win could be enough here.

10pts each way 7/1 Ladbrokes or Bet365 (Both 4 places)

Dailynaps

Selection #15
3.05 York Tazahum

I'm willing to forgive his last 2 runs as 10 furlongs on soft ground was too far and 8 furlongs on firm ground was too quick. Today's conditions should be ideal with just under 9 furlongs on Good to Soft. His fourth in a listed event at Goodwood lto doesn't look extraordinary at first glance but he was held up in a race where the first three home led from the start and he made eyecatching late headway to finish never nearer to that trio at a trip that was clearly too short. Neebras won that day but Tazahum already has form beating him cosily in the listed Heron Stakes. Neebras went on to frank that form finishing just 2.5 lengths behind Frankel and a head behind Excelebration in the St James' Palace. I'd have Tazahum as 5/1 FAV here.

10pts each way 10/1 Ladbrokes or Bet365

Dailynaps

Ah another second with Tazahum.

Selection #16
2.00 York Dafeef
Willie Haggas is having a wonderful week at York with two winners already on the board. You must take notice when he enters one in a top class race and especially so with a 4-year-old who is after a break. In 2010, Haggas had four 4-year-olds who returned from a break to run in a Listed event. 3 of those 4 won! Green Destiny again proved it this year improving from his 3yo season. Dafeef returns tomorrow after 340 days off the track. He showed some good form last season against his elders, finishing just 1 length behind Doncaster Rover and .5 length behind Brave Prospector. With more improvement to come as a 4yo, this listed event should be well within grasp.

2.5pt each way 8/1 Ladbrokes

Dailynaps

Selection #17
3.05 York Harris Tweed

Another Willie Haggas 4yo (owned by his father) who has shown improvement this year. This fella has the form in the book with good seconds in Group 2 and 3 company this summer. He should appreciate the step up in trip (Melbourne Cup was the plan a few months ago!) and is probably 2-3 lengths better with cut underfoot.

2.5pts each way 4/1 Boyles

I'm also keen to have a saver on the 3yo in the field Highland Castle. He is a progressive sort and put in a great performance when fifth in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes last month, running green but coming from last to 5th in the final furlong. Step up in trip should suit on that evidence.

1pt each way 16/1 Boyles and Lads

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

3.05 York Harris Tweed
2.00 York Dafeef

Will also have a double on the two Willie Haggas geldings.

2.5pts each way 7/2 & 8/1 Ladbrokes

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

3.05 York
I'm also keen to have a saver on the 3yo in the field Highland Castle. He is a progressive sort and put in a great performance when fifth in the Group 3 Gordon Stakes last month, running green but coming from last to 5th in the final furlong. Step up in trip should suit on that evidence.

1pt each way 16/1 Boyles and Lads

Going to add another 1pt each way here, still 16/1 with lads.

Dailynaps

No good at York

10pts each way double (Boyles)
2.30 Newmarket Samitar 6/5
2.50 Goodwood Regal Realm 2/1

They both share a formline back to a hot Newmarket Maiden in which they finished 1st and 3rd on their debuts. Samitar (3rd that day) has since come out and won the Albany Stakes Group 3 impressively and Regal Realm was second in the Juddmonte Stakes Group 3 with the step up in trip looking in her favour today.

Worth noting that the filly who split them at Newmarket was Gamilati, who ran out an impressive winner of the Cherry Hinton (Group 2) last month over the same course and distance as the maiden.

That is some classy form which makes this a clear related bet but the bookies will be happy to accept it :P

Dailynaps

3.00 Newton Abbot
10pts each way King Ozzy 4/1 Sky Bet (1/4 1,2,3)

Always amazing just how under-rated Lawney Hill is. She shows a massive profit with horses moving to her from other stables and looks to have improved this gelding as well. She also has a huge profit in handicap races where the horse hasn't run in 90+ days, so I'm not worried about the fitness of the gelding here.

I can forgive his last run as he looked like just not getting home over 2m 4.5f, but if we go on his run before that, he looks like he should be a clear favourite here.

Dailynaps

10pts each way dever dream 7/1 Powers
1.55 Donny

Alanza looks a false favourite, she looks much better over a mile +. Dever Dream has excuses for last few runs and her turn of foot can won this.

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

10pts each way dever dream 7/1 Powers

More seconditis but good run all the same.


3.00 Doncaster
10pts each way Regal Realm 9/4 Bet365

Won a very hot maiden before a 2nd then a 1st in two Group 3s, and was probably worth more than the winning distance lto after an interrupted run. Has an experience advantage over these and probably should be favourite.

Dailynaps

3.15 Curragh
10pts each way Dragon Pulse 11/4 Boyles

Nice progressive colt, took the step up to 7f in his stride lto when comfortably accounting for Parish Hall in a Group 2. Was just ridden out hands and heels that day and should have more improvement to come.

Dailynaps

RWC Tonga v Canada
10pts Under 46.5pts 5/6 Coral

I was very impressed with the Tongan defense against New Zealand, they looked very solid once their defensive line was set (Think all the tries were conceded from breaks) and I think Canada will find it very tough to get scores on the board. Neither side are prolific scorers and I'd have the line here closer to 30pts.

Dailynaps

RWC Argentina v Romania
10pts Under 43.5pts 5/6 Coral

Two tough defences meet here and tries should be hard to come by. The Invercargill setting is notorious for very tricky kicking conditions and with the kickers already struggling with the new ball (Both sides missed numerous penalties last week), it's hard to see where the points will come from.

Dailynaps

RWC Wales v Namibia
15pts Wales -31 Second-half handicap 11/10 Ladbrokes

You have to feel really sorry for the Namibians - Not only did they land in the group of death but they had only 3 days between Fiji and Samoa, 6 days rest before their South African hammering and just 3 days later must play Wales. Wales make 11 changes to the side but we have to be looking at an 8-9 try win. They shipped 12 to SA but it's worth noting 7 of those were in the last 20 minutes. After just 3 days turnaround, I expect the Namibians to be out on their feet come the end of the 80 here.

Dailynaps

Bayern Munich v Man City
15pts under 2.5 goals 11/10 Paddy Power

City look like a good bet here at 3s but I'd be wary of Mancini playing very defensive and not going for the win. Playing defensive is something City do very well, shown by their massive 18 clean sheets in last season's Premier League. Expect Mancini to set up with 2 defensive midfielders and look to hit Bayern on the break. Worth noting that Bayern's stingy defence haven't conceded in 9 games!