The Troubles

dizzler

The Troubles
just wondering, what would it take for the troubles in northern ireland to kick off again and have british troops on the street?
a prolonged and intensified bombing campaign by the dissidents? god forbid.
another omagh? god forbid.
kidnappings and murders by the loyalists?
will the loyalists and republicans ever be as forceful against eachother as they have been in the past?

look forward to your opinions.

RMD

Dissident bombing campaigns, increasing civil tensions and orchestrated attacks on entire communities. Basically what we've seen happening this year, let's just hope it doesn't escalate any further.

dizzler

yeah i know there has been alot more activity this year (and last year) since there has been in the previous 10 years or so but surely that doesnt mean they have much more support especially in terms of people willing to carry out any bombings? do you not think its just the same small group of people who are possibly just bored and want to cause some trouble? or do you actually think there ha been a resurgence in recruitment for these groups and also in people willing to carry out the acts?

i honestly cant see it getting to a point where you have loyalits/republicans walking into a bar and shooting dead 8 people just becase they were on "the other side"???

Wolfe Tone

Basically it would take a collapse of stormont imo.

As for another Omagh, if physical force republicans make a mess of a bombing you could have one tomorrow. Unlikely though, they know that would be the end for them.

LondonIrish90

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

Basically it would take a collapse of stormont imo.

As for another Omagh, if physical force republicans make a mess of a bombing you could have one tomorrow. Unlikely though, they know that would be the end for them.

What's other type of bombing is there in your opinion? A good one?

I'd personally say any situation involving the planting of explosives in Northern Ireland is quite a mess regardless, evidently your views differ somewhat.

Cathal O

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

Basically it would take a collapse of stormont imo.

As for another Omagh, if physical force republicans make a mess of a bombing you could have one tomorrow. Unlikely though, they know that would be the end for them.

I disagree, these current groups are just as careless as they have ever been, with this

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/real-ira-linked-to-van-left-at-underpass-15141721.html

being evidence that another omagh is within the capabilities of these groups. This van in that link was a classic example of a town centre bomb.
It would cease any type of support they would have , i agree .

All this needs for a full out war would require stormount to collapse, this leads the question what would cause stormount to collapse, it is difficult to see this happen in the forseeable, with any class of physical republican violence being put dpwn by all sides of the political community, I cannot see the british army back on the streets of the 6 counties no matter how bad rioting gets either

dizzler

why would it get so bad if stormont collapsed? what would happen?

Wolfe Tone

LondonIrish90 wrote: »

What's other type of bombing is there in your opinion? A good one?

I'd personally say any situation involving the planting of explosives in Northern Ireland is quite a mess regardless, evidently your views differ somewhat.

Yawn. :rolleyes:


"A mess" as in blow up a packed town center. Its obvious they wouldn't want that.

Of course, it would be better of there where no bombs at all.

Quite tiresome how you perpetually misrepresent my position, equating a hope that physical force republicans don't bungle their way towards another Omagh with saying that their bombings are "good".

Wolfe Tone

dizzler wrote: »

why would it get so bad if stormont collapsed? what would happen?

That would depend on why it collapsed.

It would have to be a major major reason, a series of events culminating in a bloody Sunday style scenario to cause a return to the days of the troubles.

RMD

dizzler wrote: »

yeah i know there has been alot more activity this year (and last year) since there has been in the previous 10 years or so but surely that doesnt mean they have much more support especially in terms of people willing to carry out any bombings? do you not think its just the same small group of people who are possibly just bored and want to cause some trouble? or do you actually think there ha been a resurgence in recruitment for these groups and also in people willing to carry out the acts?

i honestly cant see it getting to a point where you have loyalits/republicans walking into a bar and shooting dead 8 people just becase they were on "the other side"???

British intelligence has stated in recent years the greatest threat to the UK is Republican dissidents which says a lot considering the threat of Islamic terrorists. It's not just a small group performing these actions, there's 3-4 groups knocking around right now such as the RIRA, OnH (completely separate to the IRA movements they claim), the IRA (the group who claimed Ronan Kerr's murder) and some other Republican group as well I forget the name of. All have a fair level of knowledge and intelligence when it comes to manufacturing bombs and procuring arms.

I think there hasn't been a large resurgence in numbers, but there's been a large resurgence in those who always believed in violence taking to actual violent means.

Wolfe Tone

RMD wrote: »

British intelligence has stated in recent years the greatest threat to the UK is Republican dissidents which says a lot considering the threat of Islamic terrorists. It's not just a small group performing these actions, there's 3-4 groups knocking around right now such as the RIRA, OnH (completely separate to the IRA movements they claim), the IRA (the group who claimed Ronan Kerr's murder) and some other Republican group as well I forget the name of. All have a fair level of knowledge and intelligence when it comes to manufacturing bombs and procuring arms.

I think there hasn't been a large resurgence in numbers, but there's been a large resurgence in those who always believed in violence taking to actual violent means.

RMD, the "huge threat" they pose and figures spouted by sources are simply an attempt to secure funding.

Take this for example:

There are around 650 active dissident republican terrorists determined to destroy Northern Ireland's power-sharing settlement, police officers warned on Wednesday. The numbers from the Police Federation for Northern Ireland (PFNI) are the first hard figures on the size of the anti-ceasefire republican movements to be released in recent years.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jun/29/northern-ireland-650-terrorists-police

Thats bullsh!t, the PIRA had about that in the past.

These "threat levels" are all about funding.

junder

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

RMD, the "huge threat" they pose and figures spouted by sources are simply an attempt to secure funding.

Take this for example:


http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jun/29/northern-ireland-650-terrorists-police

Thats bullsh!t, the PIRA had about that in the past.

These "threat levels" are all about funding.

Tell that to constable Kerr

Sunnyisland

I would say if dissidents killings & bombings continue with the unfortunate loss of life you could expect some sort of backlash from dissidents loyalists.From then it could spiral out of control,

It also be interesting how the present government in NI handled the situation without alienating there own communities and driving them more towards the dissidents.

RMD

Wolfe Tone wrote: »

RMD, the "huge threat" they pose and figures spouted by sources are simply an attempt to secure funding.

Take this for example:


http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jun/29/northern-ireland-650-terrorists-police

Thats bullsh!t, the PIRA had about that in the past.

These "threat levels" are all about funding.

The source that stated this though wasn't the PSNI, it was MI5. I doubt MI5's highest priority is ensuring the PSNI are happy, more so that the UK is protected and assessing who poses what threat.

Bottle_of_Smoke

RMD wrote: »

British intelligence has stated in recent years the greatest threat to the UK is Republican dissidents which says a lot considering the threat of Islamic terrorists. It's not just a small group performing these actions, there's 3-4 groups knocking around right now such as the RIRA, OnH (completely separate to the IRA movements they claim), the IRA (the group who claimed Ronan Kerr's murder) and some other Republican group as well I forget the name of. All have a fair level of knowledge and intelligence when it comes to manufacturing bombs and procuring arms.

I think there hasn't been a large resurgence in numbers, but there's been a large resurgence in those who always believed in violence taking to actual violent means.

The threat from Islamic militants is nowhere near as serious as you are making out.

From a security point of view they kill some citizens the odd time. A huge number 6 years ago, anniversary today actually, but none since. This doesn't actually matter that much to the government/security services. With the IRA groups though, its security forces getting hit, and taking that to its logical conclusion they are a threat to the state, hence they're always going to be a bigger concern than the type of Islamic moron who thinks he's going to get 70 virgins in the afterlife for setting himself on fire in glasgow airport.

As WT was saying, its for budgetary reasons they put this stuff out. Better off reading blogs like Ed Maloney/Anthony McIntyre than the papers to get an accurate picture of what's going on. This was written just after Ronan Kerr was killed, worth reading the whole thing but too long to post here.

Ed Maloney wrote:

The PSNI and MI5 are, in Northern Ireland, primarily in the anti-terrorist business so the more terrorists they make us think there are and the more fearsome they seem to be, the greater the amount of money, manpower, prestige and bureaucratic clout that will come their way. There are also those, in both these two organisations and in the wider political world, who hope that in such ways Sinn Fein might be persuaded to embrace its Four Courts moment and take the offensive against erstwhile comrades, an event that would, like its Dublin counterpart in 1922, finally seal the peace process beyond any doubt or chance of retreat.

Don’t get me wrong. I am not going the other way and minimising the threat posed by dissidents. Clearly they are capable of killing people. It’s just that compared to the Provos and what it was really like during the Troubles, even in the final years, the dissidents are a faint shadow, a mouse beside an elephant in comparison and they just don’t merit the hysterical, exaggeration-laden coverage of the last few days. I’ve seen reports, for instance, that the dissident groups have 600 members between them. In the name of God, that’s more than the Provos had in their ranks in the 1980’s when they nearly wiped our Mrs Thatcher’s entire Cabinet!
http://thebrokenelbow.com/2011/04/06/martin-mcguinness-informers-the-media-and-why-dissident-republicans-still-kill-people/

KeithAFC

The Provos failed. So i don't think so. Going down a different route, the majority of them anyway.

Cathal O

KeithAFC wrote: »

The Provos failed. So i don't think so. Going down a different route, the majority of them anyway.[/QUO

Not wanting to start a thread on whether or not the pira won lost or drew the war on england keith, the troubles do not need to restart over one group/ groups believing the viability of a sucessful bombing campaign , all it needs is a reaction by idiotic loyalists dissidents on these idiotic republicant group, depending on how serious these reactions and counter reactions are, a spark may erupt and lead to something more serious,

However i agree, it is very VERY unlikely

RMD

The problem is nobody expects that much right now. A well planned bombing campaign could easily turn Northern Ireland politically upside down, all it takes is 10-20 people with the right supplies and knowledge. Thankfully the PSNI are continually finding these supplies of arms / ammunition so the chance of it occurring are getting smaller and smaller.

Sunnyisland

KeithAFC wrote: »

The Provos failed. So i don't think so. Going down a different route, the majority of them anyway.

The question was about how do we think the troubles might start again, simples.:rolleyes:Can you keithafc or ulsterafc not give an opinion without trying to put down the other side, its getting tiring with your for ever snide remarks, As for the provos failed, last time I checked,(ie gerry kelly,gerry adams,martin mcguinness.) the provos were in government.

FUNKY LOVER

British troops back on the street you say?well there is 5000 still up there,might aswell be back on the streets.

KeithAFC

realies wrote: »

The question was about how do we think the troubles might start again, simples.:rolleyes:Can you keithafc or ulsterafc not give an opinion without trying to put down the other side, its getting tiring with your for ever snide remarks, As for the provos failed, last time I checked,(ie gerry kelly,gerry adams,martin mcguinness.) the provos were in government.

I wasn't talking about Gerry or Martin and co. I was talking about the Provos in general. And the objective of the Provos.

Cathal O

KeithAFC wrote: »

I wasn't talking about Gerry or Martin and co. I was talking about the Provos in general. And the objective of the Provos.

Exactly, this thread is specifically NOT on the provos, the question was , what would it take for dissedent loyalists and republicans to act in such a manner for the army to engage in combat again. (again , NOT the provos) reenacting the troubles

LondonIrish90

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

The threat from Islamic militants is nowhere near as serious as you are making out.

From a security point of view they kill some citizens the odd time. A huge number 6 years ago, anniversary today actually, but none since. This doesn't actually matter that much to the government/security services. With the IRA groups though, its security forces getting hit, and taking that to its logical conclusion they are a threat to the state, hence they're always going to be a bigger concern than the type of Islamic moron who thinks he's going to get 70 virgins in the afterlife for setting himself on fire in glasgow airport.

As WT was saying, its for budgetary reasons they put this stuff out. Better off reading blogs like Ed Maloney/Anthony McIntyre than the papers to get an accurate picture of what's going on. This was written just after Ronan Kerr was killed, worth reading the whole thing but too long to post here.

:D:D

I assume you hold a fairly lofty position in the Security Service to be able to indulge us with this sort of information? Your examination of the types of security issues which have come to prominence following the end of the Cold War must surely be backed up by a hell of a lot of confidential intelligence documents, no?

With British citizens being the primary concern of MI5 and the British government, I suspect that the murder of Britons in our own country by Islamic terrorists does actually matter quite a bit.

Just about everything in your post is either conjecture or completely misguided opinion.

KeithAFC

Cathal O wrote: »

Exactly, this thread is specifically NOT on the provos, the question was , what would it take for dissedent loyalists and republicans to act in such a manner for the army to engage in combat again. (again , NOT the provos) reenacting the troubles

How? The conflict between Republicans and Loyalists in a militant sense is over. The Omagh bomb could not get it back to what it was in the 70s or 80s because of the government set up from the GFA.

So it is highly unlikely it would kick off again, if Omagh could not even do it.

Fr Tod Umptious

KeithAFC wrote: »

How? The conflict between Republicans and Loyalists in a militant sense is over. The Omagh bomb could not get it back to what it was in the 70s or 80s because of the government set up from the GFA.

So it is highly unlikely it would kick off again, if Omagh could not even do it.

Fair point, but remember Omagh is a mixed town and the bombers murdered people from both communities and none.
If you had a bomb, big or small, go off in a selected area, be it a Shankill Rd fish shop or a bookies in a nationalist area, then it may kick off again because the bombers were targeting a particular group in society.

Wolfe Tone

The Omagh bomb pretty much killed off serious opposition to the peace process from a lot of people.

In fact, I would go so far as to say that it facilitated the peace process and accelerated it. Thats the silver lining to that very very dark cloud.

maccored

the omagh bomb was highly suspicious if you ask me.

Fr Tod Umptious

maccored wrote: »

the omagh bomb was highly suspicious if you ask me.

Elaborate

Bottle_of_Smoke

KeithAFC wrote: »

How? The conflict between Republicans and Loyalists in a militant sense is over. The Omagh bomb could not get it back to what it was in the 70s or 80s because of the government set up from the GFA.

So it is highly unlikely it would kick off again, if Omagh could not even do it.

I think a part of the reason they keep targeting catholic PSNI members is fear of a loyalist response

If Ronan Kerr had of been a Protestant I think there could have been a retalliation.

On the Omagh bomb - had it been in Coleraine or Ballymena I reckon the last 12 years would have been very different.

dizzler

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

I think a part of the reason they keep targeting catholic PSNI members is fear of a loyalist response

If Ronan Kerr had of been a Protestant I think there could have been a retalliation.

On the Omagh bomb - had it been in Coleraine or Ballymena I reckon the last 12 years would have been very different.

well why didnt they plant it in coleraine or balymena then? why bomb their own when knowing that it would turn even more people against them?

also it was mentioned above that they would have planted the car bomb on a protestant police officer for fear of loyalist retalation so instead they do it to a catholic! doesnt make sense?

its a bit like being in a fight with someone whos bigger then you but before you give him a right hook on the jaw you realise hes alot stronger than you so you punch your mate instead and hope for the best.......

Cathal O

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Elaborate

Well there are stronmg suspicions that the RUC knew of the impending attacks by an informer inside the IRA, 11 days before the attacks, they knew what day it would be carried out, yet not one checkpoint was erected that day from the north to the south in order to intercept the bomb. If you research it, it makes interesting reading

http://www.wsws.org/articles/2001/dec2001/ire-d21.shtml

Bottle_of_Smoke

dizzler wrote: »

well why didnt they plant it in coleraine or balymena then? why bomb their own when knowing that it would turn even more people against them?

That's kind of my point. I don't think they intended to kill people that day. (FAO the usual crowd, that is not excusing them, planting a bomb like that in a busy market town is just as evil as murder) Had they caused such loss of life and carnage in a predominantly Protestant town like Coleraine/Ballymena, there would no doubt have been retalliation in the form of more killing. At that stage it could have destroyed or massively halted the fragile peace process.

also it was mentioned above that they would have planted the car bomb on a protestant police officer for fear of loyalist retalation so instead they do it to a catholic! doesnt make sense?

Yes. If they kill Protestant police members, there is a much bigger chance loyalists will respond by killing Catholics, and they probably fear that in this point in time(with peace process in a much better place) that the finger will be pointed at them as much as the loyalists

its a bit like being in a fight with someone whos bigger then you but before you give him a right hook on the jaw you realise hes alot stronger than you so you punch your mate instead and hope for the best.......

No. It just isn't like that, at all.

Pat D. Almighty

If the dissidents keep on the track that they're on, we just may have a re-ignition of the conflict. I am of the opinion that the dissident republicans actually want the British armed forces back on the streets in numbers.
RIRA/CIRA/ICBINIRA membership will increase and support will go through the roof.
Hopefully it won't come to this.

blahfckingblah

ICBINIRA???? whats this?

sollar

blahfckingblah wrote: »

ICBINIRA???? whats this?

I Can't Believe Its Not the IRA

steddyeddy

The troubles started when a group of loyalists thought that that catholics would be granted equal rights. So in essence the troubles could happen again if bigots thought that catholics were being treated better.

Pat D. Almighty

steddyeddy wrote: »

The troubles started when a group of loyalists thought that that catholics would be granted equal rights. So in essence the troubles could happen again if bigots thought that catholics were being treated better.

But Catholics/Nationalists are being treated better. However, that's no excuse to start another conflict. I don't think it will come to that.