Predict the next 10 years for Ireland

kuntboy

I want to hear the opinions of those who seem to know what they're talking about, like Scofflaw, eisdraob, Permabear, jonnyskeleton, AlekSmart, southsiderosie etc... you know who you are...

nadir

I'm not sure if I know what I'm talking about... but I think Ireland's economy is going to contract and stagnate for the next 10 years or so.
We will be caught in a deflation spiral, it will be a very long drawn out crash, where wages, property and goods will continue to devalue slightly year by year and high taxes will stunt growth. This will be followed by a stagnation period where not a whole lot will happen followed and a gradual increase in economic output as the next generation starts to join the labor force in about 15 years time.
The overwhelming debt and corresponding cash flow from the bailout will allow the country to operate at an artificial capacity but ultimately prolong any real recovery.

RichardAnd

I'd say we're past the crash and burn part of this cycle and are now entering what I would deem a smouldering ruin left in its wake. As the above poster points out, we seem to be heading into a period of stagnation where emigration is high, prospects are low and times are grenerally pretty hard. Essentially, we're heading back to the way Ireland always was.

You see, I think the boom gave the Irish a taste of something that could never be; Ireland as a wealthy land where opportunity and prosperity were common. What IReland is, in reality, is a small country with little in the way of natural resources of native industry.

Of course, that's not to say that this is not a decent place to live. My own parents lived through the 80s and both of them (along with most of the friends) built lives here and are now sucessful. It's not like every person here leaving school will be leaving to find work. With reasonable, modest expectations and little luck, it should be possible for someone to live here in realitive comfort.

Carlito Brigante

We will hit rock bottom in about 18 months time and then we will see 5-10 years of steady emigration eventually leaving us with a population of below 4m.

Average house prices for the greater Dublin area will hit 80k

Paddy will spend all his time looking into a pint glass instead of rising up againest the elite.

That's pretty much it.

Jaysoose

Tax increases along with interest rate rises..added to the increasing cost of living leaving anybody stupid enough to work struggling and still paying for those that cant/wont. Same as normal basically.

It will be ok though as bertie/fingers/pat neary etc will have plenty of money to see them through the hard times.

Basically i think its either time to leave or suck it up cos its gonna get worse due to yet another ineffective gubberment doing sweet FA about the public service and the issues within while handing out blank cheques to all departments while claiming to be broke.

Birroc

Ireland will be very similar to the 'Walking Dead' show that recently aired on RTE2 (Mondays). I am Legend.

keithclancy

I hope they exploit the lower labor costs and build some railways !!!

feicim

agree with the other posters re emigration. lets face it, the austerity demands being made of the irish citizens in order to repay the european banks are too severe. those who can leave will - and I don't think they will look back.

I think the country will continue to slowly degenerate as money is sucked out of public services (and diverted into german/french banks).

Severe cracks are appearing in the health system (which was never all it could be anyway) and people on this forum are pointing out that many roads are going to sh*t. These kind of things will get worse, as the trajectory that the irish state is on is downwards - the state's debt is crippling and will consume and outmatch any growth... the government will hold off major expenditure cuts - until the can had been kicked as far as down the road as it can be - and point is reached where it is obvious to all that expenditure has got to be slashed - public service pay and welfare (the soft options are being quickly used up).

Cue another round of shrinkage for the irish economy which is already in the grip of a negative feedback loop of contraction.

There will more than likely be quite a lot of well paid highly skilled jobs but for the vast majority who will be lucky enough to have a job in ten years it will likely be on minimum wage.

The government is bereft of ideas, and broke.

While Ireland is committed to paying back its banking/gambling debts this is how things will be.

Ireland seems to be an experiment - by not defaulting and feeling compelled to pay back all "our" debt - even though we are clearly broke, Ireland has become a debt servicing machine rather than a proper economy or society and this can only end one way. Poverty.

Zubeneschamali

Economically, things will stagnate for 10 years or so, which won't actually hurt people much once they get used to it. Until they do, moaning, whingeing, poor-mouthing, begrudgery and mé féinism will reach new highs.

old hippy

I, for one, shall welcome my brothers & sisters to the fleshpots of London.

Irish Fire

I as others can see a massive increase in one way ticket sales to U.K. U.S.A. etc.... I can't see a lot of the people that came to Ireland going back to their "homes" purely because of our S.W. system, don't get me wrong the majority of them have paid their taxes and have earned the right to get these payments etc..... Mr. (& Mrs.) Paddy Public while having a pint or glass of vino will continue to moan in the snugs and sitting rooms around the country, instead of getting up off their rear ends and doing something about the way we are allowing our past and present Government are allowing us to be treated by Europe. We will be in this state for at least 10 years........

old hippy

I also predict 10 years of people saying here that people need to get off their backsides and that something needs to be done.

Irish Fire

old hippy wrote: »

I also predict 10 years of people saying here that people need to get off their backsides and that something needs to be done.

Well at least some of us are......

keithclancy

Irish Fire wrote: »

Government are allowing us to be treated by Europe. We will be in this state for at least 10 years........

Thats like blaming a barman for your hangover :pac:

Irish Fire

keithclancy wrote: »

Thats like blaming a barman for your hangover :pac:

What I said was "instead of getting up off their rear ends and doing something about the way we are allowing our past and present Government are allowing us to be treated by Europe". We will be in this state for at least 10 years........

If you are going to quote me do it properly!!!! and I don't get hangovers.......... I suppose you are one of the indivduals that over borrowed and cause half this problem that the rest of us have to put up with.........

keithclancy

Irish Fire wrote: »

What I said was "instead of getting up off their rear ends and doing something about the way we are allowing our past and present Government are allowing us to be treated by Europe". We will be in this state for at least 10 years........

If you are going to quote me do it properly!!!! and I don't get hangovers.......... I suppose you are one of the indivduals that over borrowed and cause half this problem that the rest of us have to put up with.........

Chill ... It was just a bit of Sarcasm and not aimed at you

Nah I didn't borrow anything, we left a bit before the recession kicked in (2007), only left as a bit of an experiment really i.e. see what things were like off the Island.

COYW

nadir wrote: »

I'm not sure if I know what I'm talking about... but I think Ireland's economy is going to contract and stagnate for the next 10 years or so.

I think we will be very public sector dependent in 10 years time. The private sector and the private sector worker is going to take an awful beating over the next few years with the introduction of the household charges along with tax increases, pay cuts, job losses and I see our corporate tax rate being increased in the years to come. The combination of all of these factors will cause the private sector to contract.

I can't see a path where we will avoid a default on our debt. Also, I can't see the problems with our public sector finances being tackled. I don't think that our current government, particularly Labour, have the guts or the desire to get the job done.

keithclancy

I think over the next 10 years that right wing parties will get more seats in Government.

This has been proven over and over again with history. During economy bad times and social unrest the right wing parties always have an extreme but alternate solution.

Hopefully that won't happen.

COYW

keithclancy wrote: »

I think over the next 10 years that right wing parties will get more seats in Government.

What right wing parties are there in Ireland?

meditraitor

COYW wrote: »

What right wing parties are there in Ireland?

FG and moving more to the right as we speak....

Prakari

There won't be 10 years of stagnation, there be 10 years of stagflation.

meditraitor

I am a bit more enthusiastic about the next 10 years, after the default we will see a 6-8 month period of mayhem with a few deaths more than likely and then a steady but progressive rise back to nationhood with only ourselves to thank.

A bit like Argentina,:pac:

keithclancy

meditraitor wrote: »

I am a bit more enthusiastic about the next 10 years, after the default we will see a 6-8 month period of mayhem with a few deaths more than likely and then a steady but progressive rise back to nationhood with only ourselves to thank.

A bit like Argentina,:pac:

Nah .. will be more like

"Right .. have to head out of the protest now ... wait ... Game of Thrones is on Sky Atlantic... hmmm ..." *cracks open beer*

ardmacha

In ten years time we will look back on these threads as we now look back on statements by estate agents in 2005.

Brussels Sprout

ardmacha wrote: »

In ten years time we will look back on these threads as we now look back on statements by estate agents in 2005.

Brilliant-I guess that means everything is going to be alright so!

Before I get carried away what are you basing this welcome optimism on exactly?

Count Dooku

meditraitor wrote: »

FG and moving more to the right as we speak....

They forced to do a right things only because they don't have money to waste

ardmacha

Brilliant-I guess that means everything is going to be alright so!

It is. The pendulum always swings.

Before I get carried away what are you basing this welcome optimism on exactly?

While some people are in a bad situation, most people are not. Talk of high taxes and so on is largely whining, taxes are lower now than they were in the mid 90's, yet better times came then. The bulk of people who are not banjaxed are paying down their debts, when these are brought under control they will start spending more. Meanwhile, as we can see this week there is business expanding and coming in the country, this is providing the means for the country to pay for itself. Those young people who get jobs will be readily able to afford housing, so even if salaries are less their standard of living will not be.

Things won't really seem to improve until confidence returns and people start spending more and circulating the money around, increasing employment in services to the Irish market. So it will be several years before things noticeably improve, but by 10 years they will.

Count Dooku

ardmacha wrote: »

In ten years time we will look back on these threads as we now look back on statements by estate agents in 2005.

Do you mean that people are still overoptimistic?

Rabidlamb

This deflationary cycle would want to start soon as mortgage & fuels costs are pushing us the other way.
It all depends on the next 2 budgets, if they cut too deep we could be looking at 10 bad years like the 80's.
At least there will be value in the black economy & it will be accepted without stigma.

DoneDL

ardmacha
Things won't really seem to improve until confidence returns and people start spending more and circulating the money around, increasing employment in services to the Irish market. So it will be several years before things noticeably improve, but by 10 years they will.


Pretty much spot on, if people became less worried and tried to be more optimistic the recovery will happen sooner. Ten years time should see a different but better economy.

Brussels Sprout

ardmacha wrote: »

It is. The pendulum always swings.

That's a very simplistic and inaccurate way of looking at the situation

ardmacha wrote: »

While some people are in a bad situation, most people are not.

Public sector workers are doing ok for now. The people working in the pharma and medical device industries are ok so long as the corporation tax doesn't change. The sheltered professionals (doctors, solicitors, dentists, pharamacists) are ok. Do these people make up the majority of the workforce?

ardmacha wrote: »

Talk of high taxes and so on is largely whining, taxes are lower now than they were in the mid 90's, yet better times came then.

By all accounts things are going to get worse before they get better

ardmacha wrote: »

The bulk of people who are not banjaxed are paying down their debts, when these are brought under control they will start spending more.

In 35 years time when the mortgages on their overpriced houses are paid off?

ardmacha wrote: »

Meanwhile, as we can see this week there is business expanding and coming in the country, this is providing the means for the country to pay for itself. Those young people who get jobs will be readily able to afford housing, so even if salaries are less their standard of living will not be.

And in the mean-time the SMEs who are the biggest employers in the country are in trouble due to high rates, rents and lack of credit.

ardmacha wrote: »

Things won't really seem to improve until confidence returns and people start spending more and circulating the money around, increasing employment in services to the Irish market. So it will be several years before things noticeably improve, but by 10 years they will.

The old talking ourselves into a recession line that Bertie was so fond of eh?

kippy

Sorry,
I amn't an expert on these things so what I say here is just pure pie in the sky observations based on readings here and elsewhere.

1 At some point in the next 36 months the government are going to HAVE to cut further either numbers or wages in the public service. The head count cuts, as per usual, will be done in a shoddy manner with no real look at the people effected - who is useful, who is productive, who can do a good job in future etc. The wage reductions will probably effect the higher paid (over 35K).
This as well as changes to public service pensions and working time, with no real changes in working practices (proper pay reviews, proper career prospects, the differentiation between good, hard working staff and those that don't) will cause a lot of people to review whether the public service is for them at all. The best, depending on their lifestyle will probably leave for private sector OR go abroad. I know of a few, young, talented people already considering this.
Public services will continue to be cut back, no real change will occur to make things more efficient and allow the public service to actually serve the public better.

2 Private sector workers, depending on your field, will end up taking further cuts and continue to see drop offs in discretionary spending in the market - having a knock on effect on jobs. Pensions will continue to be close to worthless with no review in sight of public/private pensions.
If you are in the position you may look to pastures new, if not then live will go on and you'll try your best increase your take home.

3 Government will continue to increase charges/taxes.
Almost all the changes in taxes/charges/cost of living etc will apply to all people - public sector workers are not exempt.

4 Social welfare will be cut across the board but nothing will really be done to stamp out fraud or abuse mainly because of point 1 above. Eduction costs will rise, insurance costs will rise and the health of all citizens will be services by a very unfair and inefficient health service not made better by 1 above.

5 Some banks will merge, drop off the face of the earth, be sold however the citizen (not even gonna say taxpayer) will continue to carry the can for debts to the EU/ECB/IMF/ Private investors. Reducing competition in the market.

6 The interest rates on loans/mortgages will rise in line with EU rates and the rates the banks put on themselves. The cost of housing will continue to fall however the cost of servicing debt and the likelihood of getting a mortgage will increase.

7 The people who have had a part to play in this mess will continue to remain cocooned from the aftereffects with little or no criminal charges being passed.

Thats pretty much the irish top level. The EU will probably have to seriously review countries debts and theres a good chance a lot of debt will have to be written down in some manner. Spain is heading for the Greece/Ireland/Portugal situation and if that happens all bets are off as far as I am concerned.

After 36 months? Well, that depends on whether we learn from our mistakes or not.
Do we prosecute people?
Do we learn how to run our public service in the most efficient manner?
Do we cute out the cute hoorism?
Do the young people (those who are left) step up and get into politics, to try effect real change?
Do voters vote for REAL change and accept the changes that will need to happen will hurt some people but no more than what has happened already?
Is our banking system back functioning to some level?
Have we removed the artificial floor on house prices?

etc etc etc
Either, we get up, improve as a nation, cut the ****e out of our political and decision making people or we carry on for another 3 years or more in a downward spiral.

COYW

kippy wrote: »

If you are in the position you may look to pastures new, if not then live will go on and you'll try your best increase your take home.

I have no ties to Ireland and even though there is plenty of work available in my field, I am moving abroad myself later this year when my lease is up. I don't see why anyone in a similar position to me would stay. My brother, recent Trinity graduate in Engineering and most of his class are heading to Canada.

meditraitor wrote: »

FG and moving more to the right as we speak....

I disagree and any move is due to the situation they inherited and not their intent. They are centre left, just like FF.

ardmacha

Brussels Sprout wrote:

That's a very simplistic and inaccurate way of looking at the situation

Simplistic for sure. Not necessarily inaccurate.

Brussels Sprout wrote:

Public sector workers are doing ok for now. The people working in the pharma and medical device industries are ok so long as the corporation tax doesn't change. The sheltered professionals (doctors, solicitors, dentists, pharamacists) are ok. Do these people make up the majority of the workforce?

Add to that IT and Agribusiness. Tourism has been down because of ash etc, but if incomes abroad improve and and as costs in Ireland have moderated this too will improve to OK status, Queen Liz and Barrack having done their bit.

Brussels Sprout wrote:

In 35 years time when the mortgages on their overpriced houses are paid off?

Not everyone has 35 year mortgages and those in the sectors above are able to service them.

Brussels Sprout wrote:

And in the mean-time the SMEs who are the biggest employers in the country are in trouble due to high rates, rents and lack of credit.

Granted. The question is whether this will last 10 years though.

Brussels Sprout wrote:

The old talking ourselves into a recession line that Bertie was so fond of eh?

Please don't associate me with Bertie Ahern. People are saving more, which is rational in the present uncertain circumstances. When things are seen to have turned then they will save less and spend more.

BeeDI

A Greek default is imminent, dressed up in opaque terminology, like all that doublespeak loved by central bankers the world over.
After that event, absolutely all and everything will be on the table in terms of defaulting for Ireland and Portugal.
A way will be found by the end of 2011 to cut the cumulative banking and national debt of Ireland. ECB I guess, is going to have to swallow, a significant amount of it's own pooh.
The result SHOULD be, somewhat better capacity of the two main banks to start lending again, and some grease will consequently be applied to the wheels of the economy.
If not a feel good factor, at least a feel somewhat better factor SHOULD, gain traction. Some more spending, etc, etc.
Modest growth in 2012. 4% growth by 2013.
The Euro will decline in value against Sterling and USD, spurring on european exports and Irish exports in particular, as our economy is skewed more in the export direction.
The agrifood business will become a much larger part of our economy, due to the resources we have and world demand rising.
Unemployment will decline year on year from 2013, to sustainable levels.

Will the political and public service classes have learned from the crash?
Will they fcuk:mad: They same thing will happen all over again, in a couple of decades, but who cares ............... I for one wont be around for some bastrad to raid what's left of my pension

RichardAnd

BeeDI wrote: »

Will the political and public service classes have learned from the crash?
Will they fcuk:mad: They same thing will happen all over again, in a couple of decades, but who cares ............... I for one wont be around for some bastrad to raid what's left of my pension

I'd give it 20-25 years myself

Delancey

The previous posts pretty much sum up what will happen over the next 10 years - sustained high emigration , double digit unemployment , low business confidence , high taxes , restricted bank lending , little or no house price increases , we really are heading ' back to the future ' of the 1980's.
I think the country has had it and no matter how well the export-led / multinational sector does it will not be enough to compensate for the semi-collapse of the ' real ' or domestic economy.

KINGVictor

Delancey wrote: »

The previous posts pretty much sum up what will happen over the next 10 years - sustained high emigration , double digit unemployment , low business confidence , high taxes , restricted bank lending , little or no house price increases , we really are heading ' back to the future ' of the 1980's.
I think the country has had it and no matter how well the export-led / multinational sector does it will not be enough to compensate for the semi-collapse of the ' real ' or domestic economy.

How do you know? Will be nice to give some well informed perspective rather than what you think.

Like the OP I would love to read the opinion of Scofflaw, Esriaob?? etc...they are usually based on well thought out analysis and statistics rather than conjectures.

Delancey

KINGVictor wrote: »

How do you know? Will be nice to give some well informed perspective rather than what you think.

Like the OP I would love to read the opinion of Scofflaw, Esriaob?? etc...they are usually based on well thought out analysis and statistics rather than conjectures.

Forgive me for having the temerity to post

Solnskaya

Delancey wrote: »

Forgive me for having the temerity to post

forgiven, just don't do it again.:) I think a lot of small firms are in run-down mode, staggering on their last legs. The PS are in denial. The government is in a straight jacket. The next ten years? Falling property values continue. Unemployment stagnates, but only because emmigration keeps pace with redundancies. Taxes skyrocket, but not overtly. Crime continues to surprisingly decline(because it is not correctly reported). Older cars proliferate, seemingly dragged from every hidden barn. Industry turns to export as domestic demand is flat/falling. Black market booms. Extreme politics begins to become more the norm. Resentment builds against foreigners of all ilks. Life becomes much, much greyer. A lot of "during the boom we used to...." stories get told. People work harder, for longer, for less.

Raskolnikov

Honestly? I think Ireland is going to be in a darker place than today. I think that our politicians will continue to try and appease Europe. We will continue to institute austerity in the form of tax cuts and the reduction of services. However, I think the day will come when the sheer magnitude of our debt will overwhelm us and we will be forced to turn to Europe for relief, like the Greeks are doing today. I fear that Europe will impose harsh conditions in return for this relief (they will bring corporation tax into line with Europe, they will send advisors into Dublin to run our finances). This will mean that the Irish economy will remain in a tailspin as multinationals pull out and our economy and living standards continue to diminish. I fear that in 10 years time, Ireland will be in a position where we were back in 1989. Low standards of living, lower GDP than the EU average, high taxation, high unemployment and high emmigration.

jetfiremuck

I think like this....why would anyone wait out ten years to see this through. I mean if you are 40 hoping itll be better by 50 or even 25 waiting to 35. If you think about it especially if you have kids thats from 8 years old to 18. How can you think with family life that thats all there is i.e Relying on the government for support and leadership. No thanks.

ardmacha

I think the country has had it and no matter how well the export-led / multinational sector does it will not be enough to compensate for the semi-collapse of the ' real ' or domestic economy.

I think people are getting the wrong end of the stick here. Pretty much everything produced in Ireland is exported. If the export sector is doing well then it will have an effect, albeit with a lag. Of course a fair observation that might be made is some export sectors have low employment content. The biggest threat is that because of oil rices and international financial imbalances that international trade stalls.

1989 : Low standards of living, lower GDP than the EU average, high taxation, high unemployment and high emmigration.

And a 5.6% growth rate.

WalterMitty

http://www.independent.ie/business/european/athens-unveils-new-austerity-plan-ahead-of-fresh-bailout-2672094.html

Public sector in Greece facing another 20% pay cut and they are amongst lowest paid public servants in europe! Imagine what cuts irish public servants will get when we default and are made balance books by Europe/IMF

Count Dooku

WalterMitty wrote: »

http://www.independent.ie/business/european/athens-unveils-new-austerity-plan-ahead-of-fresh-bailout-2672094.html

Public sector in Greece facing another 20% pay cut and they are amongst lowest paid public servants in europe!

and most corrupted

The Greek public service is riddled with corruption and graft according to the man charged with monitoring the probity of the Greek public sector, the country’s Auditor General, Leandros Rakintzis.

His annual report last week recommended that immediate steps be taken to decrease the risk of Greek bureaucrats being tempted by corruption.

“The fight against corruption is long, hard and has many obstacles such as the bureaucratic attitude of public servants, various petty interests and the lack of know-how in thwarting techniques used to cover up corrupt practices,” Rakintzis said.

As in previous reports, he identified town-planning offices and state hospitals, followed by municipalities, as the areas of the public sector where corruption is most rife.

Late last year, graft watchdog Transparency International ranked Greece as the most corrupt country in the European Union while earlier this year it found that the average Greek family pays 1,450 euros per year in bribes to public officials.

Rakintzis said that the main reason why corruption is not being curtailed is that offenders go unpunished.

Corruption is thriving in Greek public sector

WalterMitty wrote: »

Imagine what cuts irish public servants will get when we default and are made balance books by Europe/IMF

I guess it will be the same as we default and balance books ourselves

Permabear

This post has been deleted.

wonderfulname

Solnskaya wrote: »

forgiven, just don't do it again.:) I think a lot of small firms are in run-down mode, staggering on their last legs.

Warning: Ignorant opinions ahead

Not just the small ones, large companies that can guarantee an income of sorts over a period of time through contracts are artificially prolonging their lives, drip feeding the banks and cutting left right and centre. I find it hard to believe we won't see a watershed moment when a lot of these contracts expire. I can see a lot of our best and brightest forced out when this happens.

With the public sector I see the cost reducing marginally but the value for money decreasing drastically. As someone has already said things like, for example, road maintenance, will go to the dogs, yet oddly enough the people responsible for such will still be employed at a respectable wage.
There will be similar games with welfare for a while at least, because its just too difficult to explain that the cost of living has reduced to the electorate... If only politics were pure...

The majority of the current upper middle class (professionals, public servants) will never really experience a recession, they'll just be a bit restricted. Most of their kids will emigrate with little thought as the parents will still have the money to act as a safety net and indeed to send them on their way. They'll have to because they will be quite qualified, and have inherited ideas as to their role in life, but they wont be qualified enough for what will be a ruthless jobs market. Anyone lower on the scale is going to be stuck here, either working for nothing or getting money for nothing, at least until situations improve abroad.

Things won't change in future because nobody is willing to try change things now, or indeed yesterday, soon we'll be in a position where we actually have zero options. Artificial, government sponsored sectors will go out like a candle and we'll eventually flatline almost across the board. That situation will remain until we drop the dead weight, the next property market will come along, what will provide it we don't know, and twenty years or more from now people too young to remember past mistakes will start buying cars with money that isn't theirs...

Dannyboy83

I think Fine Gael are not going to cut, they will tax us to incontinence.
Fine Gael will be wiped out at the next General Election, like Fianna Fail.
Irish society will become very polarised.

Radical parties will start to emerge in the next year or two, as people realise Fine Gael are going to tax us into oblivion and the domestic economy implodes.

Emerging parties will be Anti-Europe/Anti-Immigrant/Right Wing - the choices generally not given in Ireland.

There will be very little in the way of opportunity for Irish people in the UK/US, as they deal with their own problems.

There is going to be a mortgage default tsunami in Ireland.
ECB rates will continue to increase.

After we default, it will boil over into violence and we will start building a new state.

kippy

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I think Fine Gael are not going to cut, they will tax us to incontinence.
Fine Gael will be wiped out at the next General Election, like Fianna Fail.
Irish society will become very polarised.

Radical parties will start to emerge in the next year or two, as people realise Fine Gael are going to tax us into oblivion and the domestic economy implodes.

Emerging parties will be Anti-Europe/Anti-Immigrant/Right Wing - the choices generally not given in Ireland.

There will be very little in the way of opportunity for Irish people in the UK/US, as they deal with their own problems.

There is going to be a mortgage default tsunami in Ireland.
ECB rates will continue to increase.

After we default, it will boil over into violence and we will start building a new state.

What do you mean "new state"?

Brussels Sprout

Dannyboy83 wrote: »

I think Fine Gael are not going to cut, they will tax us to incontinence.
Fine Gael will be wiped out at the next General Election, like Fianna Fail.
Irish society will become very polarised.

Radical parties will start to emerge in the next year or two, as people realise Fine Gael are going to tax us into oblivion and the domestic economy implodes.

Emerging parties will be Anti-Europe/Anti-Immigrant/Right Wing - the choices generally not given in Ireland.

There will be very little in the way of opportunity for Irish people in the UK/US, as they deal with their own problems.

There is going to be a mortgage default tsunami in Ireland.
ECB rates will continue to increase.

After we default, it will boil over into violence and we will start building a new state.

Hordes of panicky people seem to be evacuating the town for some unknown reason. Professor, without knowing precisely what the danger is, would you say it's time for our viewers to crack each other's heads open and feast on the goo inside?

Dannyboy83

kippy wrote: »

What do you mean "new state"?

A break from the old state.