€25k invested in prize bonds

oaklands

Man of Aran wrote: »

Thanks Oakland for posting all this good info and your calculations.
This reduction from 75 to 50 E ,,,, was it a result of the recent Budget or unrelated ?
Seems a shocking move if from Budget measure.Things must be real bad over!

Its more interest rate related. The banks have been lobbying government to reduce it because there were lots of people putting funds into state savings, of which PBs are a part. So they were losing deposits in Banks to the Government schemes. The banks are also beginning to reduce their deposit rates. For example you can get 3% for 12 month deposits from Jan'13 in several banks(A year ago it was 4%+) & I suspect that will reduce even more througout 2013, at which time the state savings become relatively more attractive again.

To put it in context, Sweden lowered deposit rates to 1% this week to encourage growth. The Irish government has done something similar with a rate reduction combined with a DIRT increase.

The NTMA set the overal rates for Government savings and although they presumably operate independent from direct government interference, it is safe to say that The Government's policy is an overall reduction in deposits of any kind. The logic is that if people dont have the money saved they end up spending which in turn generates activity/growth in the economy (=more jobs+more income tax, USC, PRSI+less social welfare+less DIRT). So they inreased DIRT and reduced interest rates to achieve this and placate the banks. Its a pity the Banks & co weren't as proactive years ago!

My main gripe is that they should announce these PB changes with 3 months notice to match the initial 3 month tie-in for new purchases. I would also have preferred if they had reduced the €1m prizes to 4 times a year instead of 12 and increased the quantity and/or value of €75 prizes.

Man of Aran

oaklands wrote: »

Its more interest rate related. The banks have been lobbying government to reduce it because there were lots of people putting funds into state savings, of which PBs are a part. So they were losing deposits in Banks to the Government schemes. The banks are also beginning to reduce their deposit rates. For example you can get 3% for 12 month deposits from Jan'13 in several banks(A year ago it was 4%+) & I suspect that will reduce even more througout 2013, at which time the state savings become relatively more attractive again.

To put it in context, Sweden lowered deposit rates to 1% this week to encourage growth. The Irish government has done something similar with a rate reduction combined with a DIRT increase.

The NTMA set the overal rates for Government savings and although they presumably operate independent from direct government interference, it is safe to say that The Government's policy is an overall reduction in deposits of any kind. The logic is that if people dont have the money saved they end up spending which in turn generates activity/growth in the economy (=more jobs+more income tax, USC, PRSI+less social welfare+less DIRT). So they inreased DIRT and reduced interest rates to achieve this and placate the banks. Its a pity the Banks & co weren't as proactive years ago!

My main gripe is that they should announce these PB changes with 3 months notice to match the initial 3 month tie-in for new purchases. I would also have preferred if they had reduced the €1m prizes to 4 times a year instead of 12 and increased the quantity and/or value of €75 prizes.

Many thanks Oaklands for detailed reply.

Fully concur with your points in last paragraph.

Will also begin to cash out of them next time I get over. I suspect the PB "goldrush" story of this past 1~2 years seems well and truly over.
Reality is setting in.

ravima

Re UK Premium Bonds.

You CAN buy them, but not online. You need to download the form and send it off with a bank draft in GBP.

You can reinvest winnings automatically.

Agent Smyth

Have to say i am disappointed that they have reduced the value of the smaller prizes and left the monthly prize intact
i think like Oaklands point of view they should have reduced the monthly million prize
we as investors in the state (if the Prize Bonds could be called an investment) have a higher chance of winning the smaller prizes
now that the €75 is being reduced to €50 i feel most people will be less inclined to purchase PBs

i personaly feel they should look at how the prize fund is divided up and reduce the top prize and increase the number of smaller prizes
this would mean more people would win more and and hopefully buy more because of the win ratio

el diablo

I've just withdraw n my last remaining prize bonds. Never won a cent in over three years.(large 4 figure sum)

hairyprincess

Winnings from todays draw: €0

Total winnings since Feb 2010 on €500: €150
Total winnings since Feb 2011 on €50: €0

pbwinner

Winnings from today's draw: €0
Total winnings since Feb 2011 on €25k: €750

Agent Smyth

Winnings from 21/12/12 draw € 0
Last win 14/12/12 €75
total wins this year €375

pbwinner

Owlhead wrote: »

I have signed up especially to say to pbwinner that I have been rooting for them every week. Heretofore I would have said that I do not believe in luck but dude...you're breaking my heart! Are you going to re-invest? It's been a lean couple of months.

Hiya,
I had planned to keep the money in there for just a year - that was almost 1.5 years ago In light of the €15 reduction in the most common prize, I don't think there is any point keeping the money there any longer - so the government plan is working! Although I suppose it could be argued that the more who cash in their PBs, the greater chance for the remaining bonds to win?

The reason why they haven't reduced the €1m prize instead is to keep people suckered in - those ads on TV look a lot better with €1,000,000 floating around than €500,000 or something!

I'm glad I started this thread though, and the feedback from everyone has been so positive, as well as the valuable debate and analysis (especially from Oaklands) it initiated on PBs in general.

I'll see in the new year what to do...

XrayMike235

Winnings from todays draw: €0
Total winnings since October 2008 on €18K: €1200

Date of last win: Sept. 14th 2012

Yup a dissapointing year for sure, and a poor enough return for me after 4 years. I will also have to reconsider my investment come the new year. But if everyone cashes in their bonds, my chances of winning can only increase.......

I do like the thoughts of winning the million though, or even the €20K and it is probably chepaer than doing the lotto every week. Off line until Feb 1st, so maybe when I return with 5 draws to report on, I will have some better news. Thanks to all the contributors on the thread during the year. Happy Christmas

pbwinner

XrayMike235 wrote: »

Winnings from todays draw: €0
But if everyone cashes in their bonds, my chances of winning can only increase.......

I don't think that's actually the case though, hence me making that a question rather than a statement in my post.
Because as the value of the fund falls (i.e. encashments), then the number of prizes falls too. Hence the chances of winning does not increase. That's my understanding anyway. Perhaps someone can clarify.

Agent Smyth

if people do start cashing in their PBs the chances of winning will go from slim and f-all to just f-all

XrayMike235

pbwinner wrote: »

I don't think that's actually the case though, hence me making that a question rather than a statement in my post.
Because as the value of the fund falls (i.e. encashments), then the number of prizes falls too. Hence the chances of winning does not increase. That's my understanding anyway. Perhaps someone can clarify.

Yes, I think you are right, the prize fund will fall as bonds are cashed and will be @2% of total fund, so the odds don't increase any, but it is nice to imagine that if there are less tickets in the drum, you have a better chance of being pulled out.

Man of Aran

So if I understand it, the Banks that the Irish taxpayer essentially own, lobbied the Govt/PO hard to make the Prize Bond scheme (payouts) less attractive as an investment vehicle.
Instead of getting their own act in order ... Govt should have looked at the real underlying reason that the public had voted with their euros and piled into PB's this past 3~4 years.
Its shameful that one more 'pastime' that Joe Public looked forward to,as a flutter plus quite a reasonable investment in these tough times, is being tampered with.

oaklands

pbwinner wrote: »

I don't think that's actually the case though, hence me making that a question rather than a statement in my post.
Because as the value of the fund falls (i.e. encashments), then the number of prizes falls too. Hence the chances of winning does not increase. That's my understanding anyway. Perhaps someone can clarify.

If the total number of bonds decreases, the probability of winning big is increased and the probability of winning the €50 prize is decreased. This is because the number of big prizes are fixed and they allocate the number of small prizes based on the money left to deliver a 2.25% overall prize fund per annum. They re-calculate the number of the €50 prizes each month based on the number of registered bonds at midnight on the last day of each month.

I suspect that if there were to be a material level of withdrawals over the next 3-6 months, they would have to radically re-design the prize structure.

As always, winning the bigger prizes is only a dream, even if the number of bonds decreased by 50% its still a dream( i.e. very unlikely).

Finally, the way it is structured means that it doesnt make sense (and never did) to treat PBs as a short-term investment for smaller holdings(<25,000 bonds).

@manofaran
The reason the Govt. would support this is that they now get to use €1.5 billion @ 2.25% instead of 3%, which is much less than they (we) are paying on the international market.

WhiteMan32

Winnings from today's draw: €0
Total winnings since Feb 2012 on €12k: €150

oaklands

Over the last 31 draws/weeks there have been a total of 268,949 prizes representing €27,846,475 in prizes.


133 bonds have won twice during the 31 weeks, as follow:

• 130 of them have won 2 x €75.
• 2 bonds won a €250 + €75 prize each
• 1 lucky bond won a €1k + €75 prize.

11 different bonds won a €75 prize two weeks in a row during this 31 week period.

In the same period, there were 300 cases where sequentially numbered bonds won a prize (=600 bonds). All of these 600 prizes were €75 except one which was €250. There were no cases where three or more sequentially numbered bonds won in this period.


Enjoy!

E.&O.E.

Source: Based on analysis of published results

WhiteMan32

Winnings from yesterday's draw: €0
Total winnings since Feb 2012 on €12k: €150

pbwinner

Winnings from today's draw: €0
Total winnings since Feb 2011 on €25k: €750

Agent Smyth

Winnings from 28/12/12 draw € 0
Last win 14/12/12 €75
total wins this year €375

oaklands

I have attached a PDF showing the €1M winners since December 2007. Early on the draws were just quarterly and changed to monthly in mid 2009.

There are a few gaps, as the information was not readily available on the web. The information includes the month of the draw, the year bought, the county of the winner, the bond number and the appoximate number of years the bond was held before it won.

On a quick scan it would appear that a large number of wins were for bonds up to 4 years old. However, this could be explained by older bonds being cashed-in over the years and also the very large amount of money invested in PBs since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2008.

Another, point of interest seems to be that all €1m winners seem to be from the 26 counties. There are no winners from overseas or NI - maybe that could explain the blank entries where the NTMA might not want to publicise winners outside the state.

I understand that all the €1m prizes have been claimed to date (no surprise there!).

Best of Luck for 2013 to all on the thread :cool:

Agent Smyth

Just wanted to wish everybody a Happy New Year and Best of Luck to us all in the 2013
Hopefully someone here will have a big win
Will be going to College Green later to ring in the New Year
Enjoy what ever you get up to
Cheers

oaklands

I have written up a script to automatically send an automatic email notification each Friday, just after 12:30 when the results are published on the PB website.

A sample email output is attached, with some of the detail hidden.

If anyone on this thread wants to receive an automatic weekly email notification, then PM the ranges of your bonds to me and include your email address for notification. In summary, you will get an email detailing your wins or no win result - like in the attachment, plus a list of your holding which was checked against the results.

As far as I know there should be no risk in me knowing your numbers, but make your own call on that.

I have been running this successfully for the last 4 weeks for several family members, without problems.

So the first 5 to PM me (with details) before Fri will be included this week & the service is foc. The only criteria is that you have made meaningful contributions to this thread. I will be ablle to add more if there is interest in the comming weeks.

From time to time I may publish aggegate results for all holdings on this thread.

The following format would suffice in the PM:

BondsHeld:
AB123450 -> AB123458
BC123450 -> BC123458
BD123450 -> BD123458
SC123450 -> SC123458

Email: joe at blogs.ie

If you use the bond tracker, then a copy and paste of that would suffice.

(TIP: create a new email account on gmail or yahooo or any other provider to further anonymise your info and use it for the notification. e.g. pb123456 at gmail dot com would be great.)

worded

oaklands wrote: »

I have written up a script to automatically send an automatic email notification each Friday, just after 12:30 when the results are published on the PB website.

A sample email output is attached, with some of the detail hidden.

If anyone on this thread wants to receive an automatic weekly email notification, then PM the ranges of your bonds to me and include your email address for notification. In summary, you will get an email detailing your wins or no win result - like in the attachment, plus a list of your holding which was checked against the results.

As far as I know there should be no risk in me knowing your numbers, but make your own call on that.

I have been running this successfully for the last 4 weeks for several family members, without problems.

So the first 5 to PM me (with details) before Fri will be included this week & the service is foc. The only criteria is that you have made meaningful contributions to this thread. I will be ablle to add more if there is interest in the comming weeks.

From time to time I may publish aggegate results for all holdings on this thread.

The following format would suffice in the PM:

BondsHeld:
AB123450 -> AB123458
BC123450 -> BC123458
BD123450 -> BD123458
SC123450 -> SC123458

Email: joe at blogs.ie

If you use the bond tracker, then a copy and paste of that would suffice.

(TIP: create a new email account on gmail or yahooo or any other provider to further anonymise your info and use it for the notification. e.g. pb123456 at gmail dot com would be great.)

Do you not trust the bond tracker on the PB web site?

luketitz

Apologies if this seems a silly question.. I've a small amount of bonds for my kiddo (less than 1k), which I never really expect to win much from. As such, I rarely/never check results online, I'd just assumed they'd e-mail me if we ever won owt.

Is that the case, that they'd e-mail me if I won, or do I have to manually check every so often? (I've registered the numbers online with them and been given the login details, etc..)

I play the lotto online too, and always check the results out of habit more than anything else, I suppose there's always a fear that a jackpot e-mail notification could wind up in the spam filter (wishful thinking!)

Edit: Yes, it was a silly question, the answer is on their site - 'Prize Bond winners are automatically contacted following each draw'

oaklands

worded wrote: »

Do you not trust the bond tracker on the PB web site?

Yes. However, the reason for the email notification is that it saves having to log on to the bond tracker site. So, if you have email on your phone this will get you near instant notification, without having to log on to the tracker site.

oaklands

@luketitz
They automatically send out the 8,000+ prizes every week, in my experience. But always worth checking to be sure, particularly if you have moved since buying.

With 1K or 160 bonds, you should expect to win €50 every 3.8 years on average and €100 euros every 62 years on average, based on an estimate of the new prize system.

Bizarre username btw!

luketitz

But they'll contact you if you win, from what I can gather.. if that is indeed the case, what'd be the point in logging to check, or indeed setting up an 'unsuccessful alert'?

luketitz

oaklands wrote: »

@luketitz
They automatically send out the 8,000+ prizes every week, in my experience. But always worth checking to be sure, particularly if you have moved since buying.

With 1K or 160 bonds, you should expect to win €50 every 3.8 years on average and €100 euros every 62 years on average, based on an estimate of the new prize system.

Bizarre username btw!

OK, cool, I get where you're coming from. I don't like those odds/returns, but that's not why I got them I suppose!

Re the username.. fitz was taken!

oaklands

luketitz wrote: »

But they'll contact you if you win, from what I can gather.. if that is indeed the case, what'd be the point in logging to check, or indeed setting up an 'unsuccessful alert'?

I guess its just the Internet & instant notification. But you are right if you take no action you will probably find out within a week by post and sooner if you win the €1m.