€25k invested in prize bonds

dxhound2005

I got my newest bonds this week which are very close to the end of the ANL series. I did a rough calculation to see how many bonds have been issued since they started in 1957. They passed the one billion milestone fairly recently. I make it 1.053 billion at the end of the ANL series.

I have a W bond from 1975, so they had not even reached 25 million by then. Not too surprising since a bond was a weeks’ wages for a lot of people early on. The first Euro denominated bond was DL000001, so at that stage there were 117 million bonds. The 500 million milestone would have been in the SE series from around November 2012.

It is clear that there has been a big increase in bond sales in the past 10 years or so. But of course lots of them are cashed in as well. There were 507 million bonds in the fund at the end of 2017, so I estimate that just under half of all bonds have been cashed in.

https://www.statesavings.ie/media/pdf/prizebonds_annualreport_2017

tuisginideach

Is it you or Taylor who does the prediction calculation - I have forgotten? I've had only 1 win in 2019 so far - please tel me that I am due another 10 or so during the year so that I can have something to look forward to!

dxhound2005

Agent Smyth? They posted this on Page 251.

So here goes my guesstimation of wins per holdings per year based on the new .5% rate

€100,000 = 7 wins
€50,000 = 3 wins
€25,000 = 2 wins
€10,000 = 1 win every 2 years
€5,000 = 1 win every 3 years
€1,000 = 1 win every 14 years

tuisginideach

Ah yes, giving credit to the wrong posters - anyway, looking back on 2018, my total wasn't far off Agent Smyth's prediction - still appalling, however. Hopefully, 2019 will come right soon for us.

Andrew Flexing

Fingers crossed for you today Tuis!

Agent Smyth

:mad::mad::mad::mad::):mad::mad::mad::)

A €50 win for me today

Andrew Flexing

No Joy.

scotchy

Sorry, no winners were found for selected dates.

John arse

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Agent Smyth? They posted this on Page 251.

So here goes my guesstimation of wins per holdings per year based on the new .5% rate

€100,000 = 7 wins
€50,000 = 3 wins
€25,000 = 2 wins
€10,000 = 1 win every 2 years
€5,000 = 1 win every 3 years
€1,000 = 1 win every 14 years

Just checked the last 12 months-1(one) €50 win on 130k+ so,,,,,,,,,,,,

PB2018

Winnings on 1st March 2019: €50
Previous last win: 4th January 2019: €50
Weeks since previous last win: 8
€134k invested in prize bonds since July 2017
Win ratio: 11 wins in 87 weeks (13%)
2017 (Jul-Dec): 5 x €50 = €250
2018 (Jan-Dec): 4 x €50 = €200
2019 (Jan-date): 2 x €50 = €100

tuisginideach

Sorry, no winners were found for selected dates.:mad::mad::mad::mad::mad:

Nothing this week either...

dxhound2005

Nothing for me today. The newest bond to win is ANN460633, about 1.5 million ahead of the ones I got on Tuesday. Two people here (probably) who got all their years winnings today. Just 7 winners in Down, 2 to the same person.

Prize Value Winning Prize Bond Location

€50 YN054642 Waterford
€50 YN061416 Waterford
€50 YN061428 Waterford

€50 SF796231 Wicklow
€50 SF800610 Wicklow
€50 SF801375 Wicklow

€50 HF197668 Down
€50 HF197816 Down

Taylor365

John arse wrote: »

Just checked the last 12 months-1(one) €50 win on 130k+ so,,,,,,,,,,,,

8 wins this year so! :pac:

Cartroubles

What would be the minimum amount to invest for this to be worthwhile doing?

vargoo

Cartroubles wrote: »

What would be the minimum amount to invest for this to be worthwhile doing?

€250,000, is max allowed and you might never win anything.

How lucky are you?

Taylor365

Whats worthwhile?

At this rate, there is no investing here, more so saving.

If you want worthwhile, check out Degiro.

MarkY91

Cartroubles wrote: »

What would be the minimum amount to invest for this to be worthwhile doing?

Looking at the absolute fortunes some people behave in bonds and how little they win, I have decided that it's simply a waste of time to invest in prize bonds.

retalivity

Bonds are fine if you want to park money with effectively zero risk but also near-zero growth potential. All part of a healthy, balanced, diversified investment portfolio!

As of December: total bonds 3.1bn
Variable percentage rate: 0.5%
Prize pool: 15,500,000

Annual prizes:
€ 1,000,000 awarded twice a year (2,000,000)

€50,000 awarded every week the million isn't up for grabs (2,500,000)

€ 1,000 ten prizes awarded every week (520,000)

€ 500 ten prizes awarded every week (260,000)

Total guaranteed awards: 5,280,000

(€50 prize pool is difficult as they're made up with whatever's left, but it seems like prize bonds are increasingly being bought, so I'll imagine the pool is static at 3.1bn)

€50 annual prize pool: 10,220,000
€50 prizes (annual): 204,400
€50 prizes (weekly): approx 3930

205,942 prizes won each year.
If the total bonds are worth 3.1bn, that's 496mn bonds or odds of winning: .04% (I think, percentages we're never my strong point)

Which isn't great and it's gotten worse over the last few years: https://www.irishtimes.com/news/consumer/the-odds-of-winning-with-prize-bonds-lengthen-1.2680135?mode=amp

I only use them as I'm terrible at saving, and don't have a lot to save either, so the short termism works for me.

dxhound2005

Is that December 2018?

There will be 4634 €50 prizes in the March 2019 draws. It changes every month to reflect the amount in the fund. January was 4537, February 4595. December 2018 was 4498.

The return for someone winning only €50's is probably around 0.35%. And you have to factor in that the prizes are DIRT free when comparing them with other products. Also more or less instant access when you want to withdraw.

https://www.statesavings.ie/prize-bonds/results

John arse

Taylor365 wrote: »

8 wins this year so! :pac:

Me arse!!!!!

joeysoap

retalivity wrote: »

Bonds are fine if you want to park money with effectively zero risk but also near-zero growth potential. All part of a healthy, balanced, diversified investment portfolio!

Age probably comes into it too. I got my annual statement from EBS a few weeks ago. With the exception of thr ‘family’ savings scheme the interest was poor. One of their saving plans pays no interest at all, and one pays 0.01%.
So someone older who might need easy access might choose prize bonds on the chance of an odd win.

decky1

is it looking like the more you invest the better chance you have of winning? have one for 5 pound my mother got for me 45 years ago[maybe a fair sum then?] anyway never got a cent from it.

dickface

decky1 wrote: »

is it looking like the more you invest the better chance you have of winning?

Is that a serious question?

Agent Smyth

It's been exactly a year since I last did some figures on the PB's , so as of this weeks draw there is €3,465,680,000 in the fund
That's up by €256,880,000 from last March , giving a average net growth of €1,019,365 for every working day last year
There are now some 554,508,800 bonds in each draw, up from last year by roughly 41,100,800 bonds
And their chasing 4655 weekly prizes which is only up from 4161 last March by 494 extra €50 prizes


So my guesstimation of wins per holdings per year hasn't really changed since July '17 but I've added two extra guesses for the smaller bond holders

€100,000 = 7 wins
€50,000 = 3 wins
€25,000 = 2 wins
€10,000 = 1 win every 2 years
€5,000 = 1 win every 3 years
€1,000 = 1 win every 14 years
€100 = 1 win every 143 years
€6.25 = 1 win every 2291 years

decky1

dickface wrote: »

Is that a serious question?

more of a statement really, why have i offended you?

Taylor365

decky1 wrote: »

more of a statement really, why have i offended you?

I am outraged!












:pac:

Agent Smyth

Taylor365 wrote: »

I am outraged!
:pac:

I just can't work out why someone would choose a username like that
or is it the parents thought they'd have the last laugh, all the time

decky1

Taylor365 wrote: »

I am outraged!

As my mother used to say'It's a pity about you' What has you outraged? are you in charge of the Prize bonds draw or something?I think Agent Smyth has hit the nail on the head with his comment [see above]on the prize bonds chance of winning, Did his statement not bring on this 'Outrage': chill out there it's only a bit of a chat ,'Outrage' LOL:rolleyes: