Property Prices-People deluded.

dabestman1

I was talking to a neighbour who believes that his house has not gone down in value in the last year,i told him otherwise. He's not an idiot but seems deluded in relation to the valuation of his property. A couple of other people are saying the same. Do these people not read newspapers, the news or are they simply deluded? Anyone else find this annoying?I assume there are other people living in denial.

JoeyJJ

You could show him the price index drops however I'm sure he'll say something like but this area is different ect.

If there are any houses for sale in the area of same stature you could look up collapso.net to see if there are any price drops over the last year.

Maybe he isn't for turning and pushing the fact could lead to bad feelings, why do you care? Is he putting the house up for sale?

lainey316

In denial. Unless he wants to sell, leave him off, what difference does it make? if he does want to sell, then he'll soon realise from the lack of viewings or what he'll consider 'derisory' offers.

John Mason

yeah, i work with a bloke who lives in a huge lego land housing estate the arse end of wicklow - he bought his 2 bed house there for 470k 4 years ago,

he thinks his house has only devalued by 50k but when he wants to sell it in 5 years time you should make around a 100k profit (and is on interest only mortgage repayments)

Treehouse72

dabestman1 wrote: »

He's not an idiot...

No, he's an idiot alright.

Theboinkmaster

irishbird wrote: »

yeah, i work with a bloke who lives in a huge lego land housing estate the arse end of wicklow - he bought his 2 bed house there for 470k 4 years ago,

he thinks his house has only devalued by 50k but when he wants to sell it in 5 years time you should make around a 100k profit (and is on interest only mortgage repayments)

Definitely an idiot.

Mr X11

irishbird wrote: »

yeah, i work with a bloke who lives in a huge lego land housing estate the arse end of wicklow - he bought his 2 bed house there for 470k 4 years ago,

he thinks his house has only devalued by 50k but when he wants to sell it in 5 years time you should make around a 100k profit (and is on interest only mortgage repayments)

The guy is a clown for buying a two bedroom house for anything near that kind of money. He deserves all that's coming to him. He'll be lucky if it reaches 200k on the open market now never mind in 5 years time.

robd

dabestman1 wrote: »

I was talking to a neighbour who believes that his house has not gone down in value in the last year,i told him otherwise. He's not an idiot but seems deluded in relation to the valuation of his property. A couple of other people are saying the same. Do these people not read newspapers, the news or are they simply deluded? Anyone else find this annoying?I assume there are other people living in denial.

He's in good company with 50,000 or so other people advertising their properties through Estate Agents on MyHome or Daft.

It's a rather un-unique phenomenon I'm afraid.

Mr. Loverman

The average human uses emotion rather than logic when making up their mind.

Scary.

ShadowHearth

irishbird wrote: »

yeah, i work with a bloke who lives in a huge lego land housing estate the arse end of wicklow - he bought his 2 bed house there for 470k 4 years ago,

he thinks his house has only devalued by 50k but when he wants to sell it in 5 years time you should make around a 100k profit (and is on interest only mortgage repayments)

holy mother of flying hotdogs... 470k for 2 bed house?! and he think it droped only by 50k...

btw what does it mean: legoland housing estate lol

lainey316

ShadowHearth wrote: »

btw what does it mean: legoland housing estate lol

hundreds of identical little boxy houses. practically every estate in ireland tbh

zyndacyclone

I think that estate agents are largely to blame for this delusion, some of them over price by an astonishing degree. I've even had agents showing me properties admit that it's worth about 20% less than what they have it listed for.

Perhaps they expect the Irish to barter? Idk, me I just don't view properties that are THAT over priced on the grounds that, like your friend, the owners probably haven't got realistic expectations.

Love the expression 'legoland housing'. Perfect, totally fits those housing estates.

mikemac

The agents should be trying to be realistic, after all they want a quick sale and not hanging on for months and months. An extra 50k is a lot to the seller but it's not a huge amount in commission, not worth waiting months for.

And I would think they try to do this with sellers and set a realistic price.

All the agent can do is follow the instructions given by the seller though and if the seller is in denial, you have to follow what your client instructs

irishbird wrote: »

yeah, i work with a bloke who lives in a huge lego land housing estate the arse end of wicklow - he bought his 2 bed house there for 470k 4 years ago,

Delgany?

Frank Black

zyndacyclone wrote: »

I think that estate agents are largely to blame for this delusion, some of them over price by an astonishing degree. I've even had agents showing me properties admit that it's worth about 20% less than what they have it listed for.

I think their pricing it higher than it's worth on the assumption that anyone making an offer for a house these days are unlikely to offer the full asking price.

zyndacyclone

Probably true but some of them go too far. There's a fine balance between assuming that people will just make a lower offer and putting them off because they assume that the owner will be deluded.

I recently viewed a house that was, imo, over estimated by nearly 30%. The agent kept repeating that he thought it 'very overpriced'. I didn't give him an offer because I didn't feel comfortable offering that much below list price. Maybe I should have but the degree of overpricing was just off-putting.

mikemac

I remember gazumping, we had lots of threads on it

Will we see gazundering in Ireland?
Seller desperate to sell, maybe in a chain with a bridging loan and right before the contracts are signed the buyer demands a lower price or they walk. The seller knows it might be months to get another buyer in place
High pressure tactics

Well it was done the other way around not so long ago

Not condoning it now, just interested

Callan57

dabestman1 wrote: »

I was talking to a neighbour who believes that his house has not gone down in value in the last year,i told him otherwise. He's not an idiot but seems deluded in relation to the valuation of his property. A couple of other people are saying the same. Do these people not read newspapers, the news or are they simply deluded? Anyone else find this annoying?I assume there are other people living in denial.

Surely it's only gone down in price if he is trying to sell .. if he likes his home & intends to continu living in it then it hasn't gone down in value to him

zyndacyclone

Only works in a sellers market, I'd walk long before it got to the contract stage now. Most times, I don't even bother to make an offer cause the seller is probably delusional to let it be over priced by that much.

Zamboni

Callan57 wrote: »

Surely it's only gone down in price if he is trying to sell .. if he likes his home & intends to continu living in it then it hasn't gone down in value to him

Look at from a balance sheet perspective.
His assets have devalued so his financial position has changed, negatively in this case.

Godge

Zamboni wrote: »

Look at from a balance sheet perspective.
His assets have devalued so his financial position has changed, negatively in this case.

Unlike a company, he does not have to produce a balance sheet and even if he draws up, he doesn't have to get an independent valuation and can rely on his own best guess.

Yes, there are many deluded people out there. Was talking to a neighbour who is considering selling and their estimate of value of their house was about 70K more than mine, and I was basing my estimate on asking prices in the area on daft and myhome (which are more than you will get).

D1stant

Callan57 wrote: »

Surely it's only gone down in price if he is trying to sell .. if he likes his home & intends to continu living in it then it hasn't gone down in value to him

Eh no. If you had 100k in the bank and someone 'misplaced' 50k of it. Would that be an issue if you didnt plan to withdraw any money?

Zamboni

Godge wrote: »

Unlike a company, he does not have to produce a balance sheet and even if he draws up, he doesn't have to get an independent valuation and can rely on his own best guess.

Of course not, I was simply providing a different perspective.

Tell your neighbour to read this :pac:

House prices in Dublin have fallen nearly 50 per cent since their peak in 2007, the Central Statistics Office has said.
According to the CSO’s Residential Property Price Index, house prices in the capital are 46 per cent lower than 2007, while apartment prices have fallen 53 per cent since their high in February 2007.
Nationally, residential property prices fell by 1 per cent in the month of April. This compares with a decline of 1.7 per cent recorded in March.
The index, which looks at property on a national level, shows residential property prices throughout the rest of the country are 36 per cent lower than their highest level in 2007. Overall, the national index is 40 per cent lower than its highest level in 2007.
Dublin apartment prices fell by 1.8 per cent in the month of April and were 14.1 per cent lower when compared with the same month of 2010, while house prices fell 0.7 per cent and were 12.6 per cent lower compared to a year earlier.
Property prices throughout the rest of the country fell by 36 per cent in the first three months of 2011, and were 11.7 per cent lower than in April 2010.
Dermot O'Leary, economist at Goodbody Stockbrokers, said the national average price for a house was €180,000, back to levels seen in early 2002.

"It is clear that an unprecedented correction has taken place, but until the banking sector shows real signs of rehabilitation, facilitated by the restructuring efforts currently ongoing, there is little reason to believe that prices will rise," he said.

Snakeblood

Callan57 wrote: »

Surely it's only gone down in price if he is trying to sell .. if he likes his home & intends to continu living in it then it hasn't gone down in value to him

If he's talking about how much he can sell it for, then it's gone down in value to him. If he's talking about the awesome view, then yeah, that's the same.

John Mason

mikemac wrote: »

I remember gazumping, we had lots of threads on it

Will we see gazundering in Ireland?
Seller desperate to sell, maybe in a chain with a bridging loan and right before the contracts are signed the buyer demands a lower price or they walk. The seller knows it might be months to get another buyer in place
High pressure tactics

Well it was done the other way around not so long ago

Not condoning it now, just interested

this happened to my friend, the day before the handover was due to happen they told her that they are reducing the price by 25k, as the prices had come down.

she told them to feck off and is now renting the house out - suits her tbh she doesnt live in the country

johndaman66

Property prices throughout the rest of the country fell by 36 per cent in the first three months of 2011

Surely a misprint?

Mr. Loverman

johndaman66 wrote: »

Surely a misprint?

3.6% I would think.

dabestman1

irishbird wrote: »

this happened to my friend, the day before the handover was due to happen they told her that they are reducing the price by 25k, as the prices had come down.

she told them to feck off and is now renting the house out - suits her tbh she doesnt live in the country

thats lousy, im glad she told them to feck off

Freddie59

lainey316 wrote: »

hundreds of identical little boxy houses. practically every estate in ireland tbh

You're obviously not a city dweller then.:rolleyes:

smelltheglove

This post reminds me of an old neighbour, I sold in 2006, height of the boom. I remember after the sign went up neighbour says to me 'are ya mad selling now?' I said eh why he says 'sure the prices are only going to go up, Im waiting another year or two until it goes up to around 450k and then Ill get somewhere bigger'. I had only bought a year before, he had bought 8 or 9 years before, when the estate was first built, list prices on building were only 70k punts, still he thought he would get a 300k or more profit....

We sold end of 06, a few months later, another neighbour sale agreed for 20k less than our sale price, only our house was basic, theirs was extended to the back and attic, new windows and doors, tiled throughout downstairs with paved driveway and gates etc etc... They decided to stay put, didnt think they were getting a good price, most recent house to sell there was almost half their sale agreed price!

When I drive by my old estate I often wonder does my neighbour ever think of that conversation.... I have no negative equity, happily renting, hoping to stay like that for the forseeable, and they all said I was mad when I said I was selling before the prices started to drop! I would have been in huge trouble if I didnt sell when I did.

lainey316

lainey316 wrote: »

hundreds of identical little boxy houses. practically every estate in ireland tbh

Freddie59 wrote: »

You're obviously not a city dweller then.:rolleyes:

Um, I am actually. Sorry, not a clue what point you're trying to get at there :rolleyes:

mrmitty

Freddie59 wrote: »

You're obviously not a city dweller then.:rolleyes:

Lol
Neither are you.

dan_d

Your neighbour is deluded. What is it with people who have lived as adults through the last decade and property??

And in our part of the country (north county Dublin) they are also known as Monopoly houses. Coz that's what they look like. Though Legoland is better I think..!

dabestman1

Just looking at the prices on property websites it seems that estate agents are deluded too. The quicker that sellers and estate agents come to the conclusion that houses are still way overpriced the better.

TommyTippee

For every idiot pricing his house ridiculously high, there's an idiot who thinks they're getting a bargain.

You need only look over this forum the last week or so from the poster wondering if it's a good time to buy a one-bed apartment to the posters who think a €250k two-bed terrace in Rialto is good value.

There's one born every minute in Ireland when it comes to houses and flats....all logic and sense seems to flutter out the window.

I've no sympathy for them now at all. We've all seen the reality of this stuff within 5 to 15 years, so nobody has any excuses for making these cretinous choices.

Sadly, these people will still artificially prop up the housing market for a while yet.

ricman

If you are not thinking of selling, the value of your house may not have much effect on your lifestyle ,as long as you are not in negative equity ,or looking for a bank loan,and you have a secure job.
Of course most people are effected because the government borrowed billions to rescue the banks and is raising taxes and cutting public services.Maybe some people are happy to think my house is worth x,since they are not selling it maybe along time before they know the real value of their house.Some people buy a house and live in it for 40 years,and its passed on to someone in their will.and some older people don,t use the web,or look on daft.ie or similar websites. .If you go to the bank to borrow 200 on a 240k house and they bank think its worth 180k it,ll be very hard to get a mortgage.I,d say nama is propping up the market abit
by holding on to 1000s of units which they got from the banks at 50 percent of book value.

solovely

Wow, it's amazing with all the wise people on here, that this country got into such a mess in the first place...


But seriously, what does it matter if somebody is deluding themselves if they are not trying to sell you a house? Except for you to be smug and think you know so much more than them?

I am probably one of those deluded people, bought two years ago. Got a 4 bed house (home) 3km from Dublin city centre for 60% of the original asking price and half of what a non-extended (mine has attic and garage) house sold for at the height of the boom, so thought I did pretty well. Another non-extended house sold for more than mine since I bought mine, and other houses in the area don't seem to have devalued nearly as much over the past 2 years as houses in other parts of Dublin have.

But anyway, besides that, paying my mortgage has been a lot cheaper than rent, for a much nicer, bigger place. What I have saved in low interest payments would probably make up for what I would save were I to buy now + rent over 2 years. But beyond that, I'm far far happier owning than I was renting. People say here that it's wrong to base decisions on emotions....eh hello, we are humans, that's what makes us human...since when is happiness solely based on wise financial decisions??

Jaden

For every person who gets good deal (you seem to have done well), there are 49 who get shafted. There are always exeptions, but to have them, there need to be many other examples of the rule.

I was offered 385K in 2006 for my house (Wasn't for sale, someone knocked at my door and asked would I sell). It's a large 5 bed detached house, in rural Galway, less than half an hour from the city. Right now, I couldn't give it way for half that. If you got 175K, you'd be doing well. Does it matter to me? Nope. I'm not moving, half my (small) Mortgage is already paid, and it suits my needs. Yay me, I'm great.

Imagine I'd sold to a young professional couple in 2006. Fast forward to now, and one of them has lost their job, they have a 350K Mortgage on a house worth half that. Can't afford to start a family, and can't leave because of NE.

Even back then, a quick look over the financials of buying would have raised red flags, and yey many people bought because they "loved" the place. There are people even now with the same thinking.

In the long run, You'll lead a happier life if you make financial decisions with your head and not your heart.

Mr. Loverman

solovely wrote: »

Wow, it's amazing with all the wise people on here, that this country got into such a mess in the first place...


But seriously, what does it matter if somebody is deluding themselves if they are not trying to sell you a house? Except for you to be smug and think you know so much more than them?

I am probably one of those deluded people, bought two years ago. Got a 4 bed house (home) 3km from Dublin city centre for 60% of the original asking price and half of what a non-extended (mine has attic and garage) house sold for at the height of the boom, so thought I did pretty well. Another non-extended house sold for more than mine since I bought mine, and other houses in the area don't seem to have devalued nearly as much over the past 2 years as houses in other parts of Dublin have.

But anyway, besides that, paying my mortgage has been a lot cheaper than rent, for a much nicer, bigger place. What I have saved in low interest payments would probably make up for what I would save were I to buy now + rent over 2 years. But beyond that, I'm far far happier owning than I was renting. People say here that it's wrong to base decisions on emotions....eh hello, we are humans, that's what makes us human...since when is happiness solely based on wise financial decisions??

If you honestly think you have saved money by buying two years ago you are amazingly deluded.

60% of the original asking price means nothing if the seller was also deluded.

ZYX

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

If you honestly think you have saved money by buying two years ago you are amazingly deluded.

60% of the original asking price means nothing if the seller was also deluded.

This is the kind of comment that really annoys me. People making decisions about someone elses house without ever even seeing it. It is based on the mistaken belief that all houses are equal that all prices go up and down at the same level.

Zamboni

ZYX wrote: »

This is the kind of comment that really annoys me. People making decisions about someone elses house without ever even seeing it. It is based on the mistaken belief that all houses are equal that all prices go up and down at the same level.

It could also be based on a number of statistical reports from the CSO and reports on asking prices from Daft and Myhome.

ZYX

Zamboni wrote: »

It could also be based on a number of statistical reports from the CSO and reports on asking prices from Daft and Myhome.

That is my point. It is based on these reports then he makes assumptions based on averages in these reports.

For example house prices in Dublin are now down about 45% from peak on average. Yet the poster said he paid 60% less than peak and got a better house. 60% off peak fits with Morgan Kelly's predictions (70% including inflation so about 60% actual reduction). I don't know the house he is talking about but based on what he said it sounds like a good deal.

Mr. Loverman

ZYX wrote: »

This is the kind of comment that really annoys me. People making decisions about someone elses house without ever even seeing it. It is based on the mistaken belief that all houses are equal that all prices go up and down at the same level.

Surely it is absolutely stunningly obvious at this stage that

a) houses are significantly cheaper than they were two years ago
b) it is silly to think you got a good deal because you "only" paid 50% of the peak price during a bubble. Bubble prices are so far off reality you should not compare anything with them unless you are just having a bit of a laugh.

solovely is deluding himself by thinking he has saved money by buying two years ago.

quozl

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

solovely is deluding himself by thinking he has saved money by buying two years ago.

ZYX, would you not say that considering that 'solovely' gave us no hard facts to base their claim on that the balance of probability is that Mr. Loverman is correct?

It's obvious that neither, he, I, nor you can actually know for sure as 'solovely' gave us zero details to go on but there are a lot of things that we can't know for certain but that we can make an educated guess of the likelihood of.

Do you propose that we consider all possibilities to be equally likely in the absence of evidence proving one?

D1stant

ZYX wrote: »

That is my point. It is based on these reports then he makes assumptions based on averages in these reports.

For example house prices in Dublin are now down about 45% from peak on average. Yet the poster said he paid 60% less than peak and got a better house. 60% off peak fits with Morgan Kelly's predictions (70% including inflation so about 60% actual reduction). I don't know the house he is talking about but based on what he said it sounds like a good deal.

This is the kind of comment that really annoys me. People making decisions on whether a deal is good or bad without knowing what '60% of peak' is in real terms

Damie

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

If you honestly think you have saved money by buying two years ago you are amazingly deluded.

60% of the original asking price means nothing if the seller was also deluded.

Devils advocate here, just to spice things up....yeah

If solovely somehow managed to get a tracker mortgage, would it make any difference? As in, someone getting a mortgage now on less capital compared to someone with a tracker on higher capital?

(*just for arguments sake*)

solovely

Wow, I seem to have sparked something.

No tracker mortgage unfortunately :-( They weren't around 2 years ago.

Bought a nice house in a nice part (they exist) of Dublin 8 in a nice small development, original asking price in Oct 2007 was €550k, I bought for €330k in June 2009. The seller had gone sale agreed twice but both pulled out as mortgage didn't come through. Went for quick sale with me as she was desperate. Similar house in same estate without attic conversion and garage went for €600k in early 2007. A house in the same estate went sale agreed at €380k and I heard through the grapevine sold for not much less than that 4 months after I bought mine in June 2009.

A 2 bed cottage on my road is currently asking for €265k and similar 3 beds in the area are looking for €270-400k. The road I'm on though has somehow always sold for more than others in the area.

I got a 92% 2 year fixed rate mortgage at 2.7%.

Is that enough info?

Based on what I get in renting out two rooms in the house versus what I was paying in rent on my own for a cottage less than half the size on my own house this time two years ago, I am €700 better off every month.

I have no intention to move any time in the foreseeable future. I love my home far more than I could ever love anywhere that belongs to anyone else. If heaven forbid, I did lose my job, it is in a great rental location, I could move into a smaller bedroom and rent out the other bedrooms to almost cover the full mortgage cost (even when my fixed rate ends in September).

Oh, by the way, I'm female ;-)

Mr. Loverman

solovely wrote: »

Wow, I seem to have sparked something.

No tracker mortgage unfortunately :-( They weren't around 2 years ago.

Bought a nice house in a nice part (they exist) of Dublin 8 in a nice small development, original asking price in Oct 2007 was €550k, I bought for €330k in June 2009. The seller had gone sale agreed twice but both pulled out as mortgage didn't come through. Went for quick sale with me as she was desperate. Similar house in same estate without attic conversion and garage went for €600k in early 2007. A house in the same estate went sale agreed at €380k and I heard through the grapevine sold for not much less than that 4 months after I bought mine in June 2009.

A 2 bed cottage on my road is currently asking for €265k and similar 3 beds in the area are looking for €270-400k. The road I'm on though has somehow always sold for more than others in the area.

I got a 92% 2 year fixed rate mortgage at 2.7%.

Is that enough info?

Based on what I get in renting out two rooms in the house versus what I was paying in rent on my own for a cottage less than half the size on my own house this time two years ago, I am €700 better off every month.

I have no intention to move any time in the foreseeable future. I love my home far more than I could ever love anywhere that belongs to anyone else. If heaven forbid, I did lose my job, it is in a great rental location, I could move into a smaller bedroom and rent out the other bedrooms to almost cover the full mortgage cost (even when my fixed rate ends in September).

Oh, by the way, I'm female ;-)

So it's probably fair to say you're in about 80k of negative equity at the moment.

Would you have spent that much on rent in two years?

I'm sorry I have to say this stuff to you.

Btw bubble prices are irrelevant, and asking prices are pretty irrelevant too!

Damie

solovely wrote: »

Wow, I seem to have sparked something.

No tracker mortgage unfortunately :-( They weren't around 2 years ago.

Bought a nice house in a nice part (they exist) of Dublin 8 in a nice small development, original asking price in Oct 2007 was €550k, I bought for €330k in June 2009. The seller had gone sale agreed twice but both pulled out as mortgage didn't come through. Went for quick sale with me as she was desperate. Similar house in same estate without attic conversion and garage went for €600k in early 2007. A house in the same estate went sale agreed at €380k and I heard through the grapevine sold for not much less than that 4 months after I bought mine in June 2009.

A 2 bed cottage on my road is currently asking for €265k and similar 3 beds in the area are looking for €270-400k. The road I'm on though has somehow always sold for more than others in the area.

I got a 92% 2 year fixed rate mortgage at 2.7%.

Is that enough info?

Based on what I get in renting out two rooms in the house versus what I was paying in rent on my own for a cottage less than half the size on my own house this time two years ago, I am €700 better off every month.

I have no intention to move any time in the foreseeable future. I love my home far more than I could ever love anywhere that belongs to anyone else. If heaven forbid, I did lose my job, it is in a great rental location, I could move into a smaller bedroom and rent out the other bedrooms to almost cover the full mortgage cost (even when my fixed rate ends in September).

Oh, by the way, I'm female ;-)

Any idea what rate you will be offered when your fixed rate term is up? How will this affect your current savings?

Mr. Loverman

solovely wrote: »

Based on what I get in renting out two rooms in the house versus what I was paying in rent on my own for a cottage less than half the size on my own house this time two years ago, I am €700 better off every month.

Another problem, you are not comparing like with like. There is a big difference between renting a cottage on your own, and renting a house with two other people. Obviously the former will cost more rent.

There is also the issue that you are having to rent out two rooms in your home. That isn't doable long term.

Again I'm not trying to be negative, but I see no sense in deluding yourself about your situation.

desertcircus

Everything depends on what kind of deal you get when the introductory rate runs down. At the moment, you're alright, but that may not remain the case. The rates on mortgages.ie at the moment indicate a rate between 4.2 and 4.75% for a refinance, but that may not be on the table given that most banks won't touch a refinancing at anything much over 80% LTV. Over a twenty-year term, repayments are from 1830 to over 2050 a month at those rates for a 300k loan - compared to 1615 a month at 2.7% based on a twenty-year mortgage.