World cup XV

jolley123

Planetrugby have just done a piece where they put up their first XV for all the countries. They excluded those who are currently injured so players like Elsom,Hernandez,Mitchell are absent.

http://planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3551_6961963,00.html

I don't know whether they chose Fitzgerald because they seriously think he's the better option, or because they just had a brainfart and forgot Earls. I'm assuming the latter. In terms of their Irish selection, I would be in agreement bar two selections. That would be the Jones selection, simply because we haven't had a chance to see Kearney yet. And the Fitz one. But other than that, I think that's our best XV.

They chose Ben Smith on the wing ahead of Poki, Rokocoko and Jane. I haven't seen much of him so maybe he has been that good.

If that was the Aussie team to face us, although they still look good, I would be quietly confident.

bamboozle

jolley123 wrote: »

Planetrugby have just done a piece where they put up their first XV for all the countries. They excluded those who are currently injured so players like Elsom,Hernandez,Mitchell are absent.

http://planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3551_6961963,00.html

I don't know whether they chose Fitzgerald because they seriously think he's the better option, or because they just had a brainfart and forgot Earls. I'm assuming the latter. In terms of their Irish selection, I would be in agreement bar two selections. That would be the Jones selection, simply because we haven't had a chance to see Kearney yet. And the Fitz one. But other than that, I think that's our best XV.

They chose Ben Smith on the wing ahead of Poki, Rokocoko and Jane. I haven't seen much of him so maybe he has been that good.

If that was the Aussie team to face us, although they still look good, I would be quietly confident.

sorry i cant see Felix Jones in our squad never mind the starting full back.

fitz

If Kearney is still out injured, I don't think the Jones selection is too much of a stretch. Other than having Earls at 11 ahead of Fitzgerald based on current form, I'd be happy with that as a starting 15.

Do I think that'll be the team selection?
Not a hope. It'll be Paulie and Donners in the second row, and I wouldn't be surprised to see TOL, Flannery and Kearney parachuted straight back in if they get over their injuries, regardless of whether they're performing at the same level as the alternatives.

circos

Leo instead of DOC? Do they know Declan Kidney?

jolley123

bamboozle wrote: »

sorry i cant see Felix Jones in our squad never mind the starting full back.

Well what would you select if Kearney's injured. You either put Fitz at full-back, which proved a disaster in the 6nations. You put Earls at full-back which hasn't really been tested. Or, you do something odd like throw Bowe there.

I can see him in the squad. If he gets a chance to show himself in the warm-up games and does well, I can't see why it would be that farfetched.

RugGol

jolley123 wrote: »

Well what would you select if Kearney's injured. You either put Fitz at full-back, which proved a disaster in the 6nations. You put Earls at full-back which hasn't really been tested. Or, you do something odd like throw Bowe there.

I can see him in the squad. If he gets a chance to show himself in the warm-up games and does well, I can't see why it would be that farfetched.

Surely Earls at Fullback and wings of Bowe/Horgan - Afterall Horgan is playing some of his best rugby ever

Tomtom364

Tbf to whoever wrote the team.
Jones is picked not ahead of Kearney, but because kearney has not yet come back from injury (training excluded, only talking bout playing in a match). They even statethat they excluded Kearney.

Only thing in that team I dont understand/agree with is Fitz over Earls, thats just being silly.

jolley123

RugGol wrote: »

Surely Earls at Fullback and wings of Bowe/Horgan - Afterall Horgan is playing some of his best rugby ever

Can't see Horgan travelling tbh. He is playing well, but he's lost a lot of pace in recent years. I think if they're going to go with the Earls at full-back choice, then it'll be Fitz or Trimble to pair up with Bowe.

Tomtom364

RugGol wrote: »

Surely Earls at Fullback and wings of Bowe/Horgan - Afterall Horgan is playing some of his best rugby ever

We have discovered a gem in keeping Earls on the wing, it works so lets not mess with that.
Besides, Horgan has lost pace and though is playing well alright, he isnt good enough for the world cup to push someone like Trimble out of a spot.

Kearney unfit or dosnt prove himself to have form after injury then Jones Earls and Bowe should be the back 3.

sock puppet

jolley123 wrote: »

Planetrugby have just done a piece where they put up their first XV for all the countries. They excluded those who are currently injured so players like Elsom,Hernandez,Mitchell are absent.

http://planetrugby.com/story/0,25883,3551_6961963,00.html

I don't know whether they chose Fitzgerald because they seriously think he's the better option, or because they just had a brainfart and forgot Earls. I'm assuming the latter. In terms of their Irish selection, I would be in agreement bar two selections. That would be the Jones selection, simply because we haven't had a chance to see Kearney yet. And the Fitz one. But other than that, I think that's our best XV.

They chose Ben Smith on the wing ahead of Poki, Rokocoko and Jane. I haven't seen much of him so maybe he has been that good.

If that was the Aussie team to face us, although they still look good, I would be quietly confident.

Some strange choices there. I'd be very surprised if any of the teams we face line up like that.

circos

It does say its based on form alone though...

totallegend

We have another two months of this ahead of us; heated debate over meaningless nonsense like these selections. We need some games to talk about!

But sure while I'm here, that Australia back line is going to rip us to shreds. On a more positive note, if we get to the QFs, I'd fancy us to knock over that South African side.

Quint2010

No James Hook for Wales and Banana man in the centre for England?..

Podge_irl

Jones is going to find it tricky to get a place in the team. We have four games before the RWC and you would have to think Kearney will get at least two, if not three of them to get back into form. Even if he is not playing amazingly you have the other option of a player in effectively his first season with no international experience. It's difficult to see Kidney going completely against his norm to give Jones the jersey.

jolley123

Quint2010 wrote: »

No James Hook for Wales and Banana man in the centre for England?..

They put Hook at full-back oddly enough.

I would have 13.Manu 12.Barrit for the English team. TBH, it's not hard to find a better centre partnership than Hape and Tindall.

roycon

hape is just pipped by vanikolo as the worst player to ever wear an england jersey

fitz

Assuming Kearney's going to be fit, and will travel, I'd like to see Jones get a some time in the warm up games, and if he does well, bring him as our backup 15. Murphy has the experience, but not the pace and fearlessness that Jones has displayed in recent games. Worth having a younger, pacier option in the squad to come off the bench.

GerM

roycon wrote: »

hape is just pipped by vanikolo as the worst player to ever wear an england jersey

Somewhere in the world, Henry Paul has just unknowingly received the biggest compliment of his rugby union career.

tolosenc

Tomtom364 wrote: »

Kearney unfit or dosnt prove himself to have form after injury then Jones Earls and Bowe should be the back 3.

Nah. 15: Earls; 14: Bowe; 11: Fitzgerald is probably better. Really tough on Shaggy.

wixfjord

Tomtom364 wrote: »

We have discovered a gem in keeping Earls on the wing, it works so lets not mess with that.
Besides, Horgan has lost pace and though is playing well alright, he isnt good enough for the world cup to push someone like Trimble out of a spot.

Kearney unfit or dosnt prove himself to have form after injury then Jones Earls and Bowe should be the back 3.

Unless you're taking Trimble to cover centre, Horgan has had about 10x the season that Trimble has had, and is in the form of his life. He's been brilliant for Leinster! Definitely good enough to start for Ireland, he's actually been better than Bowe on form, who has had a mixed enough season at that joke of a club.

jolley123

wixfjord wrote: »

Unless you're taking Trimble to cover centre, Horgan has had about 10x the season that Trimble has had, and is in the form of his life. He's been brilliant for Leinster! Definitely good enough to start for Ireland, he's actually been better than Bowe on form, who has had a mixed enough season at that joke of a club.

I don't think it would be a good idea to bring Horgan. Yeh, you can argue that he's had a good season for Leinster, but would you feel confident having Horgan on the wing against Aus or SA. If you would then fair enough, it's your opinion and I won't belittle it. But I wouldn't feel confident. He's just lost a lot of pace.

wixfjord

jolley123 wrote: »

I don't think it would be a good idea to bring Horgan. Yeh, you can argue that he's had a good season for Leinster, but would you feel confident having Horgan on the wing against Aus or SA. If you would then fair enough, it's your opinion and I won't belittle it. But I wouldn't feel confident. He's just lost a lot of pace.

Janey he's done fairly well against wingers the like of Medard, Ashton, Malzeu, Strettle etc!
I don't know whether you have any statistics about him losing a yard of pace, or whether this is just a thing that's said once a player gets over 30?!
Horgan was never a searing speedester anyway, and he managed to become one of Ireland's most decorated wingers.

I'd love to see him come up against Habana, Aplon, Shepard, Rod Davies etc, because he's got what a lot of these guys don't, a brilliant rugby brain/

jolley123

wixfjord wrote: »

Janey he's done fairly well against wingers the like of Medard, Ashton, Malzeu, Strettle etc!
I don't know whether you have any statistics about him losing a yard of pace, or whether this is just a thing that's said once a player gets over 30?!
Horgan was never a searing speedester anyway, and he managed to become one of Ireland's most decorated wingers.

I'd love to see him come up against Habana, Aplon, Shepard, Rod Davies etc, because he's got what a lot of these guys don't, a brilliant rugby brain/

Alright. Settle down. Like I said, I will respect your opinion.

And no, I'm not assuming he's lost pace because he's over thirty. I think he's lost pace based on my viewing of him in the Leinster games this season. In no way am I trying to devalue Horgan as a winger or insult the man. I'm a Leinster fan so I think very highly of him. I just think his international days are behind him. I can't really see how you drop Bowe for him, what with Bowe being one of the best wingers in Europe if not the world. And Earls has been exceptional for Ireland recently. Which means if you were to bring him, he would be a back-up winger/centre. And I think McFadden/Fitzgerald are better options as back-ups.

Difference of opinions, that's all.

wixfjord

jolley123 wrote: »

Alright. Settle down. Like I said, I will respect your opinion.

And no, I'm not assuming he's lost pace because he's over thirty. I think he's lost pace based on my viewing of him in the Leinster games this season. In no way am I trying to devalue Horgan as a winger or insult the man. I'm a Leinster fan so I think very highly of him. I just think his international days are behind him. I can't really see how you drop Bowe for him, what with Bowe being one of the best wingers in Europe if not the world. And Earls has been exceptional for Ireland recently. Which means if you were to bring him, he would be a back-up winger/centre. And I think McFadden/Fitzgerald are better options as back-ups.

Difference of opinions, that's all.

No way would you drop Earls or Bowe, and no way would Horgan go as a centre/winger combo, he's a terrible 12, but he's certainly good enough to start for Ireland, and possibly, along with Earls, the in form winger we have atm.

GerM

Horgan never had blistering acceleration but has decent top end speed. He can match most wingers in that regard. His try against Llanelli last year should highlight his ability to cover a bit of ground still. He must have gone 75m untouched. If Horgan stays at home, it would be due to his lack of versatility rather than any deficiency in his pace or defence.

Bowe hasn't set the world alight this season either in fairness. He has done a decent job for Ireland when he played but nothing particularly impressive. It's hard to guage where he has been in terms of form for the Ospreys given the tumultuous season they've endured. With that said, I was quite unimpressed with him in the last month whenever I've seen him. He was a weak link when Munster visited the Liberty stadium and was exposed badly in defence.

In terms of form, Trimble and Earls are ahead of Bowe in the last few months. Bowe will never be left out due to the threat he brings and his big game record but he certainly isn't matching the levels he did in the 2008/09 and 2009/10 seasons.

darragh_haven

GerM wrote: »

Somewhere in the world, Henry Paul has just unknowingly received the biggest compliment of his rugby union career.

I had forgotten about that walking disaster. jees he was brutal.:eek:

jolley123

wixfjord wrote: »

No way would you drop Earls or Bowe, and no way would Horgan go as a centre/winger combo, he's a terrible 12, but he's certainly good enough to start for Ireland, and possibly, along with Earls, the in form winger we have atm.

I'm confused. If there's no way you drop Bowe or Earls, then how is he good enough to start for Ireland. Are you suggesting a 15.Earls 14.Horgan 11.Bowe combo?

cython

jolley123 wrote: »

I'm confused. If there's no way you drop Bowe or Earls, then how is he good enough to start for Ireland. Are you suggesting a 15.Earls 14.Horgan 11.Bowe combo?

Possibly that, but I think it more likely he's suggesting that Horgan be the first choice 14, and Earls at 11, and let Bowe act as centre/winger combo on the bench?

totallegend

I'd have no issue with bringing Horgan, he has been the in-form winger in Ireland this season, he isn't as pacy as Earls or Trimble but he can motor when he gets moving. In the latter stages of this season, we've seen what a real asset he can be at re-starts, his defence is rock-solid and he is an excellent finisher, give him the ball within ten metres and chances are he'll score.

It's ironic that we're all sitting here, wondering who the 'bolters' are, and we've a guy who's been in the Ireland squad for ten years, has bags of experience and has just played probably his best season ever in the best team in Europe but no-one really regards him as a likely squad member.

Kidney obviously doesn't rate him but if anyone deserves a go in the summer games to show his form and class, it's him. I'm not optimistic for his chances though.

d'Oracle

bamboozle wrote: »

sorry i cant see Felix Jones in our squad never mind the starting full back.

I can.

I very much can.

wixfjord

jolley123 wrote: »

I'm confused. If there's no way you drop Bowe or Earls, then how is he good enough to start for Ireland. Are you suggesting a 15.Earls 14.Horgan 11.Bowe combo?

What?! I'm just saying he is good enough to start for Ireland! Not saying he should be ahead of Bowe or Earls currently, but should either get injured, or should Kidney decide to play Horgan ahead of Bowe, I'd be happy.

twinytwo

i can tell you right now that baring injury our starting 15 will be

Healy
Best
Ross
Doc
Poc
Sob/Ferris
Wallace/SOB
Heaslip
reddan
sexton
earls
darcy
drico
bowe
jones/kearney.

team that would give us the best chance of kicking some ass

healy
flannery
ross
Cullen
POC
Ferris
Sob
Heaslip
Murray
Sexton
Earls
Darcy
Drico
Bowe
Jones

prop??
Best
Wallace
DOC
ROG
Reddan
McFadden

little173

wixfjord wrote: »

What?! I'm just saying he is good enough to start for Ireland! Not saying he should be ahead of Bowe or Earls currently, but should either get injured, or should Kidney decide to play Horgan ahead of Bowe, I'd be happy.

Dont think Horgan will go which is a bit tough on him, mainly because Kidney will go for a 17-13 split and Horgan can only really play on the right wing and the likes of McFadden can play across the back line. Add in Earls, Fitz and Bowe who can also play 13 if needed, there is probably no room for him.

I think Jones will go, it is as much of a risk taking both Kearney and Murphy who have not played any rugby this year to one who is playing into some form and is a specialist FB. Fitz is not a FB and Earls is okay but need a proper full back.

totallegend

little173 wrote: »

Dont think Horgan will go which is a bit tough on him, mainly because Kidney will go for a 17-13 split and Horgan can only really play on the right wing and the likes of McFadden can play across the back line. Add in Earls, Fitz and Bowe who can also play 13 if needed, there is probably no room for him.

I think Jones will go, it is as much of a risk taking both Kearney and Murphy who have not played any rugby this year to one who is playing into some form and is a specialist FB. Fitz is not a FB and Earls is okay but need a proper full back.

OK, let's assume a 17-13 split, the following backs are 100% locked in:

3 scrum-halves (Reddan plus two from Boss, Murray, Stringer and TOL)
2 out-halves (Sexton and ROG)
2 centres (BOD & D'Arcy)
We're all agreed on that, I think.

That's seven of the 13 spots gone, so we have to pick six more for wings, FB and cover for the centre: Bowe, Trimble and Earls are locked in and either McFadden or Wallace is a definite to cover centre (more likely Wallace).

So we're left with only two spots; no-one on this forum is going to convince me that Kearney will be left at home if he is fit which leaves only one spot to be decided between:
Jones, Murphy, Fitzgerald, Horgan and McFadden (or Wallace, see above).

In terms of experience and proven ability, there is a massive gulf between Jones and the other four. In terms of ability to cover multiple positions, Fitzgerald and especially McFadden are the obvious candidates.

Essentially, if Kidney goes for 13 backs and Kearney is fit, Jones cannot go. A 16-14 split might make a difference but I still think bringing an untested, specialist full-back to the World Cup is a luxury we cannot afford.

Yours, etc.

totallegend

GerM

I think we'll go with the 16/14 split. 6 months ago, I would have thought differently but the emergence of the dual lock/flanker has lended creedance to the idea that DK will go with only 16 forwards. The only way 17 will be taken is if he goes for 5 props which I think would be unnecessary. I can't see the logic in bringing Hayes and Buckley. One of them would see no game time unless there was an injury and even then, perhaps not given Court's tighthead cover. I think Mushy will have the summer to settle in to life in Lancashire.

Tomtom364

GerM wrote: »

I think we'll go with the 16/14 split. 6 months ago, I would have thought differently but the emergence of the dual lock/flanker has lended creedance to the idea that DK will go with only 16 forwards. The only way 17 will be taken is if he goes for 5 props which I think would be unnecessary. I can't see the logic in bringing Hayes and Buckley. One of them would see no game time unless there was an injury and even then, perhaps not given Court's tighthead cover. I think Mushy will have the summer to settle in to life in Lancashire.

5 props makes perfect sense to me.
with the new(ish) 2 props on the bench rule (assuming these are applying in the RWC) then having only 4 props means all 4 play every match (or bench it) and if any of them takes a knock that puts them out for 1 match then they would have to be permantly replaced from the squad.

little173

totallegend wrote: »

OK, let's assume a 17-13 split, the following backs are 100% locked in:

3 scrum-halves (Reddan plus two from Boss, Murray, Stringer and TOL)
2 out-halves (Sexton and ROG)
2 centres (BOD & D'Arcy)
We're all agreed on that, I think.

That's seven of the 13 spots gone, so we have to pick six more for wings, FB and cover for the centre: Bowe, Trimble and Earls are locked in and either McFadden or Wallace is a definite to cover centre (more likely Wallace).

So we're left with only two spots; no-one on this forum is going to convince me that Kearney will be left at home if he is fit which leaves only one spot to be decided between:
Jones, Murphy, Fitzgerald, Horgan and McFadden (or Wallace, see above).

In terms of experience and proven ability, there is a massive gulf between Jones and the other four. In terms of ability to cover multiple positions, Fitzgerald and especially McFadden are the obvious candidates.

Essentially, if Kidney goes for 13 backs and Kearney is fit, Jones cannot go. A 16-14 split might make a difference but I still think bringing an untested, specialist full-back to the World Cup is a luxury we cannot afford.

Yours, etc.

totallegend

Agreed on much of that, McFadden may get the other centre spot instead of Wallace, he can also play 13 and he can kick goals too. The logic stands that Horgan will find it tough to get on the trip as you have highlighted.
My point is that Kearney still has a fair bit to do in the next couple of months, his form wasnt great pre injury and with Jones playing well and a likely chance in the warm up games, the spot could be his.

RE the 17-13 split, think it will depend on how DK sees Ferris coming back from injury and whether can go for a Ryan to cover BR and Second row or take McCloughin as a lineout 6. Not sure there are 5 props good enough so that may take care of that option anyway.

Risteard

Tomtom364 wrote: »

5 props makes perfect sense to me.
with the new(ish) 2 props on the bench rule (assuming these are applying in the RWC) then having only 4 props means all 4 play every match (or bench it) and if any of them takes a knock that puts them out for 1 match then they would have to be permantly replaced from the squad.

Not in place for internationals. Only one prop on the bench.

Tomtom364

Risteard wrote: »

Not in place for internationals. Only one prop on the bench.

Danke.

As someone else said, Kearney has alot to do yet, if he dosnt manage it, and Jones continues his form into the summer and warm ups, then he deserves his chance. He is some talent.

I saw there was a thread about that one awesome tackle from Fitz in the Magners final. But Jones made big tackles, and very important ones, all day and in all the other games he has played for Munster, and he deserves major credit for that. His defence is remarkable.

crisco10

I know Jones has been playing well since Christmas but it would be an incredibley massive call to take him ahead of Kearney. Exactly the kind of call that deccie has been loath to make since taking up the Ireland job.

If he did take Jones based on Magners form then Jones wasn't actually that up to it at international level, we would be pretty f$cked. Kearney is the sensible option, not to mention we know he can be the best 15 in the world on his day.

That said, Kearney would certainly benefit from an Autumn with Schmidt!

What is a bit worrying is that I can see Leamy, TO'L and Stringer all going despite not starting for Munster (or making the 22 in TO'L's case). In a squad where places are tough to come by it would be a pity. Harsh on Murray, Boss, Coughlan, Jennings, Don Ryan, McLoughlin etc who are all starting and playing fantastic.

In general, isn't this a lovely position to be in? As opposed to previous World Cups where a significant number of players went "to make up the numbers".

Tomtom364

crisco10 wrote: »

If he did take Jones based on Magners form then Jones wasn't actually that up to it at international level, we would be pretty f$cked. Kearney is the sensible option, not to mention we know he can be the best 15 in the world on his day.

Noone is calling on Jones going based on Magners alone.
It's being said that if he can step up in the Warm ups and Kearney can't get back in form from injury then Jones deserves to go.

crisco10

Tomtom364 wrote: »

Noone is calling on Jones going based on Magners alone.
It's being said that if he can step up in the Warm ups and Kearney can't get back in form from injury then Jones deserves to go.

Fair point. Although I would still be wary of classing the warm ups as "international class". There will be a lot of shadow boxing I reckon.

Also, there could be an EOS type situation where by he uses the warm ups to get the XV he has already picked over the summer "clicking" and guys like Jones will only get 10 minutes here and there. Its a tricky balance actually, Deccie needs to get the team clicking and used to each other but also nail on all 30 of his selections. E.g. it would be good if McLaughlin and Ryan got runs at 6 to see how they go, but you would also want to give SOB a game or two to shake off the cobwebs!!

Even the Kearney/Jones/Murphy selection will be tough. Ideally they would all get 2 chances to stake a claim for their place (i always think its unfair to judge a guy on 1 performance alone), but that will be very hard in the limited number of warm up games.

Lads we know nothing of Kearney at this stage, he's got it all to prove before he's walking on that plane. Jones still has a lot to show too, but he's got a headstart on the form factor, though Kearney has the experience.

Though I believe that Kearney will answer all the questions in time, Jones can certainly make a case for his involvement if Kidney gives him gametime in the warm ups.

little173

crisco10 wrote: »

I know Jones has been playing well since Christmas but it would be an incredibley massive call to take him ahead of Kearney. Exactly the kind of call that deccie has been loath to make since taking up the Ireland job.

If he did take Jones based on Magners form then Jones wasn't actually that up to it at international level, we would be pretty f$cked. Kearney is the sensible option, not to mention we know he can be the best 15 in the world on his day.

That said, Kearney would certainly benefit from an Autumn with Schmidt!

What is a bit worrying is that I can see Leamy, TO'L and Stringer all going despite not starting for Munster (or making the 22 in TO'L's case). In a squad where places are tough to come by it would be a pity. Harsh on Murray, Boss, Coughlan, Jennings, Don Ryan, McLoughlin etc who are all starting and playing fantastic.

In general, isn't this a lovely position to be in? As opposed to previous World Cups where a significant number of players went "to make up the numbers".

I think Murray has now jumped ahead of TOL and Stringer, he looks very good to me and personally would take him and Stringer with Reddan, but its all very close to call. Leamy is also very vunerable esp if Ferris makes it back. Dont think DK can totally ignore the line ups for the Magners League final.

crisco10

little173 wrote: »

I think Murray has now jumped ahead of TOL and Stringer, he looks very good to me and personally would take him and Stringer with Reddan, but its all very close to call. Leamy is also very vunerable esp if Ferris makes it back. Dont think DK can totally ignore the line ups for the Magners League final.

At Munster yes. But not for Ireland I fear. It feels like TO'L has played more games in green than red this season.

totallegend

Deleted User wrote: »

Lads we know nothing of Kearney at this stage, he's got it all to prove before he's walking on that plane. Jones still has a lot to show too, but he's got a headstart on the form factor, though Kearney has the experience.

Though I believe that Kearney will answer all the questions in time, Jones can certainly make a case for his involvement if Kidney gives him gametime in the warm ups.

emmet, I generally agree with 99% of your posts but I fundamentally disagree with this one.

The last time we saw Kearney, he was in top form. Granted, that was November but (sorry for the cliche) form is temporary, class is permanent. Kearney has shown over the last three years in an Ireland jersey that he is a top-quality FB. Add to that, his best performances in a green (or red) jersey have been in the southern hemisphere and it's a no-brainer; if he's fit, he goes.

There is simply not enough time to give Jones enough international exposure to let him prove himself; he has played well enough in the Magners but the only game he's been in that was remotely close to international intensity was the ML final in which he was good but not great. We have three matches (which themselves will be of dubious intensity) and we have one FB who is unproven and two who each have bags of international and top-level club experience. At best, Jones will get one start in August; do we want to bring him to the World Cup on the basis of that?

Some of you may remember a player by the name of Matt Mostyn; came into the Ireland set-up very late in the run-up to the 1999 World Cup, played in a warm-up game against Argentina, scored a hat-trick and suddenly he was our starting winger in the World Cup. Except it turned out he wasn't very good, Ireland crashed and burned and he never played for Ireland again after that tournament.

Now I'm not saying that Jones is in the Mostyn class, but we're talking about bringing a guy to the World Cup who has limited exposure to high-level club rugby and none at all to international level. It would be a massive gamble and if we have Kearney and/or Murphy, an unnecessary one.

As it stands, we have 3 players playing full back this season that can play for Ireland. They are, Gavin Duffy, Felix Jones and Adam D'Arcy.

Kearney and Murphy have been injured for most of the season, and we really know nothing of their recoveries tbh. Fitzgerald's injury and propulsion into the #15 hurt him significantly imo. He was found wanting many times in different games at FB. Though he may prefer the position, and he might even be excellent, he's not close to the top of his game, and we can't really put him there unless we're very confident that he has shaken all the cobwebs off (which we've seen he hasn't!)

Bowe is a 14 and Earls is an 11 that has shown glimpses of excellence at 15.

If the world cup were tomorrow, the back 3 would be 15 Jones 14 Bowe 11 Earls or (possibly more likely) 15 Earls 14 Bowe 11 Trimble.

To say that Kearney will walk back into the team is fairly nonsensical. While I agree with the class is permanent / form is temporary cliché, look at Fitzgerald's struggles to get back into the game since his layoff. He's getting there, but it's taken him months to even get close to what he's able to do. How do we know Kearney wont suffer the same difficulties?

He really will have to hit the ground running to be involved.

totallegend

Deleted User wrote: »

To say that Kearney will walk back into the team is fairly nonsensical.

It's not. You always make allowances for certain players based on past performances and who their likely replacement is in the squad, e.g.
If Flannery is fit, will he have to prove his form to go ahead of Varley? No.
If Ferris is fit, are we going to take McLaughlin or Ryan on the basis of more game time this season? No.

Deleted User wrote: »

While I agree with the class is permanent / form is temporary cliché, look at Fitzgerald's struggles to get back into the game since his layoff. He's getting there, but it's taken him months to even get close to what he's able to do. How do we know Kearney wont suffer the same difficulties?

We don't, but then Felix Jones isn't going to be playing any rugby for the next ten weeks either, nor is anyone else. Everyone is going to be rusty coming into these games; the difference is that Kearney has years of proven international, Lions and Heineken Cup experience behind him, Jones has a few ML games.

Deleted User wrote: »

He really will have to hit the ground running to be involved.

See, this is where we differ. I just don't think that there are enough games for him (or Murphy) to show that he has hit the ground running and for Jones to show that he has kept up his momentum from the end of this season, or indeed that it wasn't a flash in the pan.

It's not a summer tour or even a Six Nations, if our chosen man isn't up to it, we're stuck with him. And to date, we just haven't seen enough of Jones to have any reason to be convinced he is up to it.

This is probably one of those "agree to disagree" issues, but at least it's giving us something to talk about in the absence of actual matches

OAOB

I'd be of the opinion that even if Kearney was fully fit this year he would have struggled for game time with Leinster due to the form of Nacewa but he'd be guaranteed his seat on the plane anyway. I reckon he's definitely going to be going because it is too risky not to bring him due to the experience he has.
I would prefer if the decision on who to bring between Jones and Kearney was based solely on the warm up matches but i don't think it is.
Hats off to Jones, he's played fantastic the last few months but just hasn't had enough time to establish himself enough to take Kearneys place

little173

totallegend wrote: »

emmet, I generally agree with 99% of your posts but I fundamentally disagree with this one.

The last time we saw Kearney, he was in top form. Granted, that was November but (sorry for the cliche) form is temporary, class is permanent. Kearney has shown over the last three years in an Ireland jersey that he is a top-quality FB. Add to that, his best performances in a green (or red) jersey have been in the southern hemisphere and it's a no-brainer; if he's fit, he goes.

There is simply not enough time to give Jones enough international exposure to let him prove himself; he has played well enough in the Magners but the only game he's been in that was remotely close to international intensity was the ML final in which he was good but not great. We have three matches (which themselves will be of dubious intensity) and we have one FB who is unproven and two who each have bags of international and top-level club experience. At best, Jones will get one start in August; do we want to bring him to the World Cup on the basis of that?

Some of you may remember a player by the name of Matt Mostyn; came into the Ireland set-up very late in the run-up to the 1999 World Cup, played in a warm-up game against Argentina, scored a hat-trick and suddenly he was our starting winger in the World Cup. Except it turned out he wasn't very good, Ireland crashed and burned and he never played for Ireland again after that tournament.

Now I'm not saying that Jones is in the Mostyn class, but we're talking about bringing a guy to the World Cup who has limited exposure to high-level club rugby and none at all to international level. It would be a massive gamble and if we have Kearney and/or Murphy, an unnecessary one.

I think thats a pretty compelling argument and given DK's cautious selection policy it is fair to say that Kearney will be given every chance. I have argued for some time about giving proven guys time to work into form so guess this is a similar situation, though Kearney did played all his best rugby under the old ruck laws where a big boot and being good under the high ball counted for more.

I think the lack of a credible alternative at FB really hurt us in the 6N, and with at the time 2 of the 3 big provinces playing overseas players there it really showed a lack of depth so am glad that Jones is on the scene as a specialist FB playing regularly.

GerM

OAOB wrote: »

I'd be of the opinion that even if Kearney was fully fit this year he would have struggled for game time with Leinster due to the form of Nacewa but he'd be guaranteed his seat on the plane anyway. I reckon he's definitely going to be going because it is too risky not to bring him due to the experience he has.

I don't think so. I think Nacewa would have been on the wing and Horgan on the bench. That's how they started the season and Kearney played the first 2 HEC matches at 15 with Nacewa on the wing. It was a blessing in disguise in some ways given how it worked out and how good Horgan was when he got back into the team.

I think that if Kearney is fit, he will travel. Even if he doesn't set the world alight in the warm up games, he's going to travel. He's Kidney's first choice 15 and will be going to NZ. I would think it's very likely that he'll be starting also. Jones' form will be enough to get him on the plane but, as others have mentioned, he has only done it in minor games really. He's a fantastic talent but I think his performances are getting blown out of proportion slightly. He was mediocre in a few games also but people tend to gloss over that as the hype machine starts to rumble. I think he'll build on his performances and eventually become the first choice 15 for Ireland but I really can't see anyone but RK taking the 15 jersey in the autumn if fit. It's not like hooker or blindside where we've ready made international replacements for the injured players. RK will possibly be the only established international full back on the plane. DK's conservatism will come to the fore.