June 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium

Well, it's that time again ... will June turn out any better than May?

(1) Predict the mean temp (IMT) -- the 1961-90 average was 13.3

(2) Predict the highest temperature at any met.ie station

(3) Predict the lowest temperature at any met.ie station

(4) Predict the average rainfall at eleven stations in met.ie summary (%)

(5) Predict the total sunshine at six stations in met.ie summary (%)

(6) BONUS -- With many outdoor events and several requests for wedding forecasts (in my PM box) help me out here, how much sunshine will there be on Saturday, 11 June? Predict the max (hours, range 0.0 to 15.0, anything higher reduced to 15.0), and for 3 of the available points, which station of these seven will report it ... Knock, Malin, Belmullet, Shannon, Valentia, Casement, Dublin. First letter will do fine. Points for win, place and show.

Template you can use ... type your entries over the letters and maintain the space dots because if you do, MTC has even less work than otherwise.

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... SUN-11

________________________________________________________

Just this one time I will give you some fussy details about the template. You'll see the logic in this, I'm sure. Many people add things to the numbers and then I have to delete them. So don't put deg C or % signs in, they just come out again. Just the numbers, and please note, I don't mind at all if people add these things or don't use the template, this is just to speed things up slightly. Another thing you can do is to put a zero before any percentages below 100 (otherwise I do). And just a note, some people only predict whole numbers and not decimals for temperature. That's fine but I add point zero to such predictions, and you might want to think of a decimal especially for the IMT. Now, if you're wondering how to code the bonus this month, here's my forecast and you'll see the code I'm suggesting.

13.8 ..... 27.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 080 ..... 125 ..... 7.5 (V)

I may change all of that before the deadline which is end of Wed 1st of June.
Entries on Thurs 2nd are subject to slight penalty.
Entries on Friday 3rd are "late-late" which every regular contestant can claim once a year with bigger penalties. No special penalties for bonus this time.

I promise not to go on about the template, once will be enough I'm sure.

pauldry

dont give a sht im puttin in my prediction early to see how wrong I can be.:D

Lets get it flamin

14.7 ..... 28.1 ..... 4.3 ..... 078 ..... 132 ..... 8.8 (B)

Joe Public

14.3 ..... 27.9 ..... 3.9 ..... 069 ..... 139 ..... 13.9 (B)

It is possible to have more than 15 hours of sunshine on June 11th so why not have an upper limit of 16 hours?

Comment on below post - models can be very flighty!

M.T. Cranium

If the day proves really clear and some stations exceed 15.0 hours, I wanted to declare them all tied for the win due to slight differences in exposure and latitude. Otherwise I think the contest will measure actual percentage of daylight with clear skies (sun shining through breaks at least).

So just to clarify, if the correct answer is 15.1 or higher, then all guesses of 15.0+ will be treated as equal, and all stations that record 15.0 or more will count full points as the right guess.

Models are not trending towards clear skies anyway, so this point may not matter in the scoring.

talkabout

13.6 ..... 27.0 ..... 3.1 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 6.5 (V)

fizzycyst

14.0 ..... 26.2 ..... 4.2 ..... 075 ..... 130 ..... 15 (V)

thetonynator

14.4 ..... 24.0 ..... 3.8 ..... 80 ..... 105 ..... 7.0 (B)

200motels

14.1 ..... 26.8..... 3.8 ..... 064 ..... 145..... 5.1 (B)

homolumo

14.3 ..... 26.1..... 3.6 ..... 077 ..... 135..... 6.0 (S)

TheInquisitor

14.2 ..... 26.7 ..... 2.3 ..... 105 ..... 115 ..... 11 (S)

Redsunset

15.1 26.5 4 080 180 11.5 (C)

14 ..... 26.4 ..... 3 ..... 074 ..... 123 ..... 7.4 (D)

Harps

14.0 ..... 26.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 085 ..... 110 ..... 7.5 (B)

mickger844posts

14.3 ..... 26.3 ..... 4.4 ..... 72 ..... 121 ..... 6.5 (S)

SeaFields

14.5.....28.3.... 5.4 ..... 79 ..... 125 ..... 6 (v)

DOCARCH

14.1c ..... 25.8c ..... 1.8c ..... 93% ..... 106% ..... 8.9hrs (S)

Tae laidir

14.5 ..... 27.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 071 ..... 133 ..... 8.8 (C)

MiNdGaM3

14.4 ..... 27.1 ..... 3.3 ..... 069 ..... 130 ..... 5.6 (S)

nacho libre

14.3 ..... 25.8 ..... 4.1 ..... 090 ..... 120 ..... 7.1 (S)

Lumi

13.6 ..... 24.7 ..... 3.4 ..... 087 ..... 109 ..... 8.6 (B)

Speak Now

14.1 ..... 27.0 ..... 4.5 ..... 070 ..... 130 ..... 12 (D)

nilhg

13.6 ..... 26.9 ..... 4.1 ..... 105 ..... 101 ..... 5.5 (Casement)

Strasser

15.7 ..... 28.7 ..... 6.3 ..... 70 ..... 125 ..... 14.0. (C)

Rebelbrowser

14.5 ..... 27.7..... 4.0 ..... 081 ..... 119..... 9.6
(V)

Joe Public

I can't edit my previous post so here are my latest predictions.

14.3 ..... 27.9 ..... 3.9 ..... 069 ..... 139 ..... 4.9 (B)

jd

14.5 ..... 27.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 083 ..... 121 ..... 8.5 (D)

snowstreams

14.7.....27.1 ..... 3.8 ..... 084 ..... 111 ..... 7 (S)

dacogawa

14.6 ..... 26.1 ..... 3.1 ..... 110 ..... 133 ..... 8.2 (D)

H2UMrsRobinson

14.4 ..... 25.6 ..... 8.1 ..... 095 ..... 099 ..... DUB11.6

pauldry

Wer all going pretty warm. Hope fkn NWerly keeps at bay so we can all do well

kindredspirit

14.3 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 3.5 (V)

ch750536

13.2 .... 26.5 .... 2.8 ..... 090 ..... 90 ..... 7.3 (V)

dasa29

14.5 ..... 28.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 095 ..... 115 ..... 9.0 (B)

4Sheets

14.0 ..... 27.0 ..... 5.5 ..... 078 ..... 115 ..... 12.0 (D)

John mac

12.8 ..... 26.3 ..... 3.8 ..... 081 ..... 113 ..... 10.1 (K)

waterways

13.7 ..... 24.1 ..... -0.5 ..... 99 ..... 111 ..... 3.7 (D)

0 (Malin) 3.8 (Cork)

Su Campu

13.0 ... 26.4 ... 1.8 ... 90% ... 105% ... 5.5 h (Valentia)

Sponge Bob

14.7 ..... 24.9 ..... 4.5 ..... 102 ..... 095 ..... 11.0 (O)

Danno

18.1 ..... 31.7 ..... 4.6 ..... 040 ..... 145 ..... 4.5 (D)

M.T. Cranium

June forecasts (on time, you can still enter with late penalty)

________________________

FORECASTER ......... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN .... Sunhr-11th
______________________________________________________________

Danno .................. 18.1 ..... 31.7 ..... 4.6 ..... 040 ..... 145 ..... 4.5 (D)
Strasser ............... 15.7 ..... 28.7 ..... 6.3 ..... 070 ..... 125 ..... 14.0 (C)
redsunset ............. 15.1 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 080 ..... 180 .... 11.5 (Ca)
pauldry ................. 14.7 ..... 28.1 ..... 4.3 ..... 078 ..... 132 ..... 8.8 (B)
Sponge Bob ........... 14.7 ..... 24.9 ..... 4.5 ..... 102 ..... 095 .... 11.0 (Ca)
snowstreams ......... 14.7 ..... 27.1 ..... 3.8 ..... 084 ..... 111 ..... 7.0 (S)
jambofc*............... 14.7 ..... 26.9 ..... 3.8 ..... 100 ..... 090 ..... 7.5 (S)
dacogawa ............. 14.6 ..... 26.1 ..... 3.1 ..... 110 ..... 133 ..... 8.2 (D)
jd ........................ 14.5 ..... 27.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 083 ..... 121 ..... 8.5 (D)
Rebelbrowser ......... 14.5 ..... 27.7 ..... 4.0 ..... 081 ..... 119 ..... 9.6 (V)
dasa29 ................. 14.5 ..... 28.0 ..... 2.0 ..... 095 ..... 115 ..... 9.0 (B)
SeaFields .............. 14.5 ..... 28.3 ..... 5.4 ..... 079 ..... 125 ..... 6.0 (V)
Tae laidir .............. 14.5 ..... 27.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 071 ..... 133 ..... 8.8 (Ca)
H2UMrsRobinson ..... 14.4 ..... 25.6 ..... 8.1 ..... 095 ..... 099 .... 11.6 (D)
thetonynator ......... 14.4 ..... 24.0 ..... 3.8 ..... 080 ..... 105 ..... 7.0 (B)
MiNdGaM3 ............. 14.4 ..... 27.1 ..... 3.3 ..... 069 ..... 130 ..... 5.6 (S)
nacho libre ............ 14.3 ..... 25.8 ..... 4.1 ..... 090 ..... 120 ..... 7.1 (S)
kindredspirit .......... 14.3 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.0 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... 3.5 (V)
Joe Public ............. 14.3 ..... 27.9 ..... 3.9 ..... 069 ..... 139 ..... 4.9 (B)
homolumo ............. 14.3 ..... 26.1 ..... 3.6 ..... 077 ..... 135 ..... 6.0 (S)

Con Sensus .......... 14.3 ..... 26.8 ..... 3.8 ..... 081 ..... 115 ..... 7.5 (D,S,V,B)

mickger844posts .... 14.3 ..... 26.3 ..... 4.4 ..... 072 ..... 121 ..... 6.5 (S)
The Inquisitor ........ 14.2 ..... 26.7 ..... 2.3 ..... 105 ..... 115 .... 11.0 (S)
200motels ............. 14.1 ..... 26.8 ..... 3.8 ..... 064 ..... 145 ..... 5.1 (B)
DOCARCH .............. 14.1 ..... 25.8 ..... 1.8 ..... 093 ..... 106 ..... 8.9 (S)
Jerry Seinfeld ......... 14.1 ..... 27.0 ..... 4.5 ..... 070 ..... 130 .... 12.0 (D)
4Sheets ................ 14.0 ..... 27.0 ..... 5.5 ..... 078 ..... 115 .... 12.0 (D)
fizzycyst ............... 14.0 ..... 26.2 ..... 4.2 ..... 075 ..... 130 .... 15.0 (V)
hellboy99 .............. 14.0 ..... 26.4 ..... 3.0 ..... 074 ..... 123 ..... 7.4 (D)
Harps ................... 14.0 ..... 26.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 085 ..... 110 ..... 7.5 (B)
rameire* ............... 13.9 ..... 27.2 ..... 3.1 ..... 087 ..... 115 ..... 6.9 (D)
M.T. Cranium ......... 13.8 ..... 27.0 ..... 3.5 ..... 080 ..... 125 ..... 7.5 (V)
waterways ............ 13.7 ..... 24.1 .... -0.5 ..... 099 ..... 111 ..... 3.7 (D)
Fionagus ............... 13.6 ..... 24.7 ..... 3.4 ..... 087 ..... 109 ..... 8.6 (B)
nilhg .................... 13.6 ..... 26.9 ..... 4.1 ..... 105 ..... 101 ..... 5.5 (Ca)
talkabout .............. 13.6 ..... 27.0 ..... 3.1 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... 6.5 (V)
DeepEasterly* ....... 13.5 ..... 27.2 ..... 2.8 ..... 109 ..... 100 ..... 7.0 (Ca)
ch750536 .............. 13.2 ..... 26.5 ..... 2.8 ..... 090 ..... 090 ..... 7.3 (V)
Su Campu ............. 13.0 ..... 26.4 ..... 1.8 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... 5.5 (V)
John mac .............. 12.8 ..... 26.3 ..... 3.8 ..... 081 ..... 113 .... 10.1 (K)

We now have all 39 of our ranked (annual) contestants and ch750536 (welcome) who entered last month as well ... you'll be in the annual table soon ... so I declare the contest closed for entries now. Those who chose "C" for sunshine have been asked by PM to clarify, my fault on that, we have Cork and Casement as options. Whoops. I may not be able to edit this table by the time I find out, so will post the five C entries clarified. Looking at the consensus values, as a group we have been swayed by the predictions of a warm summer and the rather cool look of the current model run has perhaps influenced the bottom third more. Still, late June could be very warm and either help or hurt various forecasts. Meanwhile, the consensus on rain and sun is clearly slanted towards a sunny and rather dry month. For the 11th, the general thinking seems to be partly cloudy and Dublin or west coast stations were favoured (the consensus locations reflect the frequency of choices and Dublin will be used to give Con Sensus points).

jambofc

14.7 ..... 26.9 ..... 3.8 ..... 100 ..... 90 ..... 7.5(s)

Deep Easterly

13.5 ..... 27.2 ..... 2.8 ..... 109 ..... 100 ..... 7.0 (C)

rameire

13.9 ..... 27.2 ..... 3.1 ..... 087 ..... 115 ..... 6.9 (D)

sorry for the delay Kung Fu Panda 2 got in the way.

M.T. Cranium

Thanks for your entries, with these three late submissions, I have checked and found that all 39 regular entrants (ranked in the annual scoring thread) and ch750536 who joined in May, have signed in ... so I have edited the table a few posts back to add the late entries and to determine Con Sensus.

Since we have the full field the contest entries are now closed.

If you chose "C" for sunshine, and there were five who did, please check your inbox, I made a mistake and there were two choices possible for C. If I can't edit the table by the time you answer, I will list what C you wanted (Cork or Casement). Thanks.

John mac

Maybe they were being cute and hedging their bets :D

M.T. Cranium

So far I have heard back from four of them and they all meant Casement. My fault anyway. The edit option remains open so I have been editing the table with their predictions.

We may get our max for the month tomorrow, but almost for certain we will be waiting a long time to update the value we have after tomorrow.

Sponge Bob

Oak Park shows 25.5c for 03 June

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

thetonynator

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Oak Park shows 25.5c for 03 June

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

I looked at the page, saw 24.2 for mullingar and thought that was the max and it would stay there for the month . . .:mad:

MiNdGaM3

Sponge Bob wrote: »

Oak Park shows 25.5c for 03 June

http://www.met.ie/latest/yesterday.asp

With a minimum of 6.5C, that gives it a diurnal range of 19C which is impressive in itself.

M.T. Cranium

The IMT after three days stood at 15.6 C. Today won't change that very much but within a week to ten days, it may be around 12.5 to 13, so much will depend on the second half of the month.

No longer able to edit the table, but Strasser has also confirmed Casement as the guess for sunshine on the 11th, so that completes the process. Nobody wanted Cork or Malin Head, which probably means they will win, right?

M.T. Cranium

3.0 for the min at Mullingar (6th).