Daily Naps

Dailynaps

Will log my best bets here each day. I specialise in place betting so most bets will come from Betfair place market and I also have a good record in the big Grade/Group 1s. Always looking for value and trying to find a favourite to oppose.

95% of bets will be placed with Betfair and I plan on posting screen shots once a week(ish) showing prices and profit/loss.

Will start tomorrow.

Dailynaps

Will go for a few shorties today (Some very short!). Would love to put reasoning but busy busy busy!

All 1pt place with Betfair
2.00 Goodwood Glee 1.17
2.00 Goodwood Falls of Flora 1.94
6.50 Worcester Kings Legacy 1.14

UrbanSea

Was that a mistake,1.17?

L'prof

UrbanSea wrote: »

Was that a mistake,1.17?

Doubt it:

Dailynaps wrote: »

Will go for a few shorties today (Some very short!).

All 1pt place with Betfair

Dailynaps

UrbanSea wrote: »

Was that a mistake,1.17?

Nope 1.17 to place.

I like to think of myself as a place betting specialist I've been profitable (with low returns) with several different approaches to betting over the years but discovered that price discrepancies can be found easier in the place markets.

It seems the markets are more irrational here than in the win market. I usually find the market underestimates a short favs chance of placing when there are only 2 places. It's usually the opposite when there are 3 places (with 8-10 runners), with outsiders usually being over-priced to place.

Will be interesting to keep an eye on in the long-term.

Dailynaps

Few extra details - Bets range from 1pt-5pts with each point representing 1% of starting bank

All 1pt place today:
2.40 Southwell Basantee 1.5
2.30 Wetherby Bedizen 1.34
3.15 Southwell La Estrella 1.09
3.15 Southwell Crystal Celebre 3.7

Dailynaps

Both 1pt place:
5.50 Sandown Huma Bird 1.44
6.00 Salisbury Light Burst 1.7

Dailynaps

1pt win
4.20 Curragh Lolly for Dolly 2.16

Very impressive this season, developing into a real Group horse, should be more suited by 8 furlongs today and rain will be a big advantage.

Dailynaps

2pts place
3.35 Auteuil Thousand Stars 2.36

Should be odds on imo, ultra consistent and looks to be improving with every run, looked to really appreciate stepping up to 2m4f at Aintree and extra furlong here should be okay.

Dailynaps

1pt place
3.15 Leicester Mr Dream Maker 1.77

Gets in off bottom weight on first handicap start, would be surprised if he didn't improve as 3yo.

Dailynaps

All 1pt place
3.45 Leicester Jack's Revenge 1.21
4.15 Leicester Right to Dream 1.42
4.30 Redcar O Ma Lad 1.81
6.55 Yarmouth Albaasil 1.56

Dream Maker 4th

Dailynaps

All 1pt place
2.20 Cartmel Beau Fighter 1.21
2.40 Nottingham Manoori 1.28
4.50 Nottingham Submission 1.32
5.35 Cartmel Ardesia 1.28
6.40 Ripon Right Result 1.25
7.10 Ripon Major Eradicator 1.47

Looking forward to some good racing on Friday!!

Moffo

I only spotted this thread yesterday. Very well done, a full house of places yesterday witha couple of winners thrown in.

Dailynaps

Moffo wrote: »

I only spotted this thread yesterday. Very well done, a full house of places yesterday witha couple of winners thrown in.

Thanks, in the long-run I hope they'll break even ish on the win part but be up on the place part, that would be my ideal!

1 early one:
1pt place
2.10 Hamilton The Clan Macdonald 2.04

Dailynaps

All 1pt place
2.30 Southwell Formal Demand 1.54
2.40 Hamilton Cherries Magic 1.24
2.40 Hamilton Prince of Vasa 1.38
3.20 Lingfield Shielmaiden 1.46
3.40 Hamilton Klynch 1.5
3.50 Lingfield Red Alpha 1.23
4.20 Lingfield Illaungass 1.23
4.40 Hamilton Fire Fughter 1.34

2pts place
2.20 Lingfield Guards Chapel 2.7


Maybe even more later on!

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

Thanks, in the long-run I hope they'll break even ish on the win part but be up on the place part, that would be my ideal!

And after saying that I have first four winners today, but only backed to place :eek: Ah well, profit is profit!

Dailynaps

2 more

Both 1pt place
6.20 Wetherby Dar Es Salaam 1.35
8.25 Uttoxeter Suburban Bay 1.23

Dailynaps

1pt ew
1.40 Epsom Timepiece 7/4 Paddy Power

Have to oppose Antara, think they should be around joint favourites and Timepiece looks too big to place as well.

Dailynaps

Both 1pt place
2.45 Epsom St Nicholas Abbey 1.38
4.05 Epsom Misty for Me 2.82
Showed her quality when winning Irish Guineas, matching Blue Bunting's form on a line through Together. Very hard to say which is stable first string, Seamie Heffernan keeps the ride and wouldn't take that as a negative as Fallon didn't have the choice.

2pts ew
2.45 Epsom Midday 11/8 Boyles
Think Midday should prob be fav but St Nic will place too. Midday clearly better on all form and gets 3lbs!

1pt ew
4.05 Wonder of Wonders 7/2 Will Hill 1/3 odds ew AND Money back if fav wins when backed through RP app How could it not be value!!

Dailynaps

One quick one
1pt place
1.40 Epsom Boogie Shoes 1.58

Dailynaps

All 1pt place
2.35 Musselburgh Es Que Love 1.41
3.35 Worcester Ghimaar 1.64
3.55 Doncaster War Poet 1.52
7.30 Newcastle Westlin Winds 1.44

1pt ew
4.00 Epsom Native Khan 11/1 Bet365 (1/3 1,2,3)
Market seems to be writing him off thinking he won't get the trip but, while that is a possibility, he was staying on strongly in the Guineas and certainly has the class to win a Derby.

P.S. Absolutely delighted Kieren Fallon will be sitting out, thoroughly deserved! I hope he has to pay damages too, haven't seen a figure yet.

Dailynaps

One more 1pt place
8.30 Newcastle Laashak 1.62

Dailynaps

Both 1pt place
2.30 Perth Priors Gold 1.12
2.35 Listowel President Lincoln 1.49

Dailynaps

1pt ew
2.45 Newton Abbot Baccalaureate 7/1 Boyles
3.10 Naas Glor na Mara 6.8 win 2.5 place
8.15 Windsor Royal Etiquette 12 win 3 place

1pt place
4.40 Naas Teolane 1.25
5.00 Folkestone Junoob 1.32

IK09

what are your percentages?

Dailynaps

IK09 wrote: »

what are your percentages?

Will tell you after 100 bets, currently on 53

L'prof

Dailynaps wrote: »

Will tell you after 100 bets, currently on 53

Seems like a good idea for a log, but it's too hard to hold any real interest without regular updates!

Dailynaps

L'prof wrote: »

Seems like a good idea for a log, but it's too hard to hold any real interest without regular updates!

All in good time. Good or bad, you don't get a realistic picture with a small sample size!

All 1pt place
3.55 Salisbury Emilio Largo 1.75
7.20 Southwell Smart Freddie 1.19

1pt ew treble (Coral)
6.45 Southwell King Ozzy 9/2
7.20 Southwell Smart Freddie 11/10
8.30 Southwell Mzuri Bay 7/2

Lawney Hill's form in last two months over hurdles reads 11137113F1.

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

Lawney Hill's form in last two months over hurdles reads 11137113F1 and now add 313

1pt place
2.20 Haydock Udabaa 1.42

Penguino

Dailynaps wrote: »

1pt place
2.20 Haydock Udabaa 1.42

Great work.

Also super stats on Lawney Hill.

Dailynaps

Penguino wrote: »

Great work.

Also super stats on Lawney Hill.

Thanks! Super lady is Lawney, very under-rated... Backing her blindly on jumps and AW will steer you the right way.

1pt place
5.10 Nottingham Miss Topsy Turvy 1.38
8.55 Leopardstown Notable Graduate 1.24

2pts each way
8.55 Leopardstown Manieree 20/1 Boyles
No way should she be 20s, all four career starts look solid, beat Wonder of Wonders here last year on good ground and ran creditably on softer this season - hopefully will be better on quicker ground. Should be there at the business end and the 4/1 to place here looks huge!

2pts win 2pts place
5.20 Newbury Lady Lam 5.3 win 1.81 place
Beaten 5 lengths by Fav here last month but enjoys a 10lb swing in the weights here. PLUS has one of the best claimers on board in Brendan Powell Jnr who looks very classy to me even after only a few rides, clearly gaining plenty of experience from the pony racing circuit in Ireland. Backing this jockey claiming 5lbs in amateur riders' races may well seem ridiculous in a few months!

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

5.20 Newbury Lady Lam 5.3 win 1.81 place

Didn't realise Hugh had tipped him :o

Manieree finished her race really well, finished 5th but only .5 length from winning!


1pt place
2.50 Sandown Speightowns Kid 1.38
5.05 Sandown Grumeti 1.41

Dailynaps

1pt win 1pt place
4.45 Market Rasen Rock Me 6.4 win 2.3 place
Lawney Hill's only runner on the day, trainer's form over hurdles in last two months reads 11137113F1313. Rock Me won better races than this last summer and the only worry is he won't be ready to go after 200 days off the track but with stable form so good atm that looks unlikely.

Dailynaps

1pt place
2.20 Bath Art Scholar 1.35
3.30 Sandown Night Carnation 1.49

Dailynaps

3pts each way
3.25 Doncaster Mon Brav 16/1 Bet365
Not up to it in better race than this last time but had two wins on the trot before that on his first two starts for Brian Ellison - Stable bang in-form. Should be more at home at this level.

1pt place
4.45 Salisbury Bonnie Brae 1.34

Dailynaps

1pt each way
3.30 Sedgefield Wotchalike 25/1 Boyles
Actually 8lbs out of the handicap here but two decent ish efforts last month and step up to 3m3f looks like it'll suit so definite place contender.

Dailynaps

St James' Palace
2pts each way
Dream Ahead 14/1 Sky Bet
Could be as good as Frankel judging last year's form, the easing conditions will be a plus and could give him the advantage.

1pt each way
Zoffany 25/1 Ladbrokes
Group One winner last season, made decent comeback when second to Bewitched last month (stablemate but Zoffany was shorter in betting) and sure to come on for that run given stable's history.

Dailynaps

2pts each way
2.30 Ascot Canford Cliffs 6/4 Bet365
Surely should be bigger price differential between the two principles, Goldikova only just holding off Paco Boy last year and I'm sure Canford would be much shorter if he was up against Paco Boy!

1pt each way
3.05 Group Therapy 25/1 Bet365
Showed lots of improvement last season, disappointed in Palace House but close to best agina lto in Temple and should go well.

1pt each way
4.25 North Star Boy 40/1 Bet365
Has beaten a few of these already but can be backed at bigger odds. Done nothing wrong in two starts and should stay 6f.

4pts each way
5.00 Ascot Veiled 6/1 Bet365
Little doubt in my mind he's the best in this race, is improving all the time and step up to this will really suit.

2pts each way
5.00 Ascot Junior 9/2 Bet365
So progressive this season, up 10lbs since winning this last year but it'll be hard to stop him, looks long odds-on to place to me.

2pts each way
5.35 Ascot Frederick Engels 9/2 Paddy Power
So impressive lto at Musselburgh, he could be anything really and this could be the last time we see such generous odds on offer.

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

2pts each way
2.30 Ascot Canford Cliffs 6/4 Bet365

1pt each way
3.05 Group Therapy 25/1 Bet365

1pt each way
4.25 North Star Boy 40/1 Bet365

4pts each way
5.00 Ascot Veiled 6/1 Bet365

2pts each way
5.00 Ascot Junior 9/2 Bet365

2pts each way
5.35 Ascot Frederick Engels 9/2 Paddy Power

3 winners, happy with that Delighted with Veiled, was really top class!

Unfortunately the BBC coverage I found shocking today. Willie Carson came across as a real ignorant oaf and would also appreciate a little more than 6-7 minutes of analysis before every race!

Nulty

Well done DailyNaps. Very good day for you. Same again tomorrow

TheMilkyPirate

Dailynaps wrote: »

Unfortunately the BBC coverage I found shocking today. Willie Carson came across as a real ignorant oaf and would also appreciate a little more than 6-7 minutes of analysis before every race!

BBC coverage of racing is muck, Their pieces on some horses before the races do be good alright but willie carson is a tit he does my nut in.

Dailynaps

Nulty wrote: »

Well done DailyNaps. Very good day for you. Same again tomorrow

Thanks, challenge accepted! :pac:

3.05 Windsor Forest Stakes
Ultra-competitive heat but have a few fancies.

2pts each way
Jacqueline Quest 25/1 Hills
Only lost Guineas last year in the stewards' room and then went on to finish third in the Group One Coronation here. Has beaten a few of these in the past (twice ahead of Music Show) so looks a big price. Comeback run was disappointing this year but same could be said last year before she put up her career best in the Guineas.

2pts place
Im a Dreamer 2.08
Progressive last year and so impressive on comeback this term, could have any amount of improvement left and fav jockey on board!

Dailynaps

3.45 Prince of Wales' Stakes
1pt each way Twice Over 18/1 Stan James
Think this is far more open than the market suggests with most of these having a chance. Twice Over was right up to his best last season winning Eclipse and Champion Stakes and has a good reord here the last three years, very close to winning this last year. Returned this season with a Group 2 success at Meydan and I'm willing to forgive poor effort last time out as a mile is really too short for him.

Dailynaps

4.25 Ascot
1pt each way Dance and Dance 12/1 Hills - 5 places
Won two similar big-race handicaps last year and showed his class when winning at Epsom a fortnight ago.

1pt each way Chapter and Verse 40/1 Ladbrokes - 5 places
Useful on AW and wasn't far off some of these in Suffolk Handicap at Newmarket in April, finishing 6th. Off lower mark again here (much lower than AW) and claimer on board, here we go!

Dailynaps

5.35 Ascot
1pt each way Winter's Night 11/2 Bet365
Improving all the time and i was very impressed with her third in a handicap at Haydock lto, handicapper not catching up yet I'd say.

Dailynaps

2.30 Ascot
1pt each way Oracle 13/2 Boyles
Greatly improved this season, 3rd in Irish Guineas would give him a chance here and hopefully more improvement to come.

Dailynaps

Disappointing day, Dance and Dance the one that got away! Onwards and upwards...!


Been following a Salisbury Maiden from last September for the last while and it's been working well. Chain Lightning won ahead of stablemate Census in very heavy conditions that day, with the first 4 home winning next time out and first five winning since then. Stable and jockey in flying form this week too!

Census won his maiden easily at Bath last October and runs in the King George tomorrow after hacking up on his comeback run at Newbury doing it really impressively, is raised 9lbs for that but i'll be hoping for plenty more improvement to come.

Chain Lightning also improved again when winning comeback handicap at Sandown in good style, running off 85. He has enough pace for a mile and Hughes stays onboard having a choice of four Hannon runners in this.


1pt each way Chain Lightning 4.25 Ascot 14/1 Powers - 5 places
1pt each way Census 5.35 Ascot 11/2 Coral
3pts each way double @ 14/1 * 5/1 Powers (With BOG)

Dailynaps

It is bucketing down at Ascot!!

3.05 Ascot
2pts each way Banimpire 3/1 Ladbrokes (1/3 1,2,3)
Appreciated the step up to 1m4f at Cork on Sunday when winning a Group 3, Bolger wouldn't have her here if she didn't have a massive chance, evens to place looks far too big.


3.45 Ascot
2pts each way Aaim to Prosper 66/1 Hills (1/3 1,2,3)
Cesarewitch winner last season, look for this fella to be staying on through the field when the rest have had enough, stays all day and the rain looks like making this even more of a test which will suit. Most of the field won't stay 2.5 miles, can't be having the top two in the market with such doubts over stamina.

1pt each way
Geordieland 22/1 Sportingbet
Off the track for two years but goes very well fresh, even ran poorer than expected in this in 2009 beacause the race came too soon, was second the previous two years to Yeats but there's nothing of Yeats' quality in this field so I'll take a punt on Geordieland having retained his ability.

Dailynaps

5.00 Ascot
Happy Today 3pts win 36 3pts place 8
Was second to Dordogne in a Listed event at Newmarket in April and then stayed on very strongly in the 2000 Guineas into sixth behind Frankel. That looks pretty decent form for this Group 3 so 35/1 looks insulting.

Dailynaps

5.35 Ascot
1pt each way Apache 11/2 Hills
Loved the step up to 1m4f last time winning impressively at Leopardstown and recording a quick time. Looks like he could improve further over this trip and looks value.

Dailynaps

Dailynaps wrote: »

1pt each way Chain Lightning 4.25 Ascot 14/1 Powers - 5 places
1pt each way Census 5.35 Ascot 11/2 Coral
3pts each way double @ 14/1 * 5/1 Powers (With BOG)

My rain dance is working This is gonna make me thousands, I might be getting a bit too confident though! Aaim to prosper is going to trot up too

More and more rain please!!!!