It's official: Ireland is doomed

Monty Burnz · 07-05-2011 10:04am #1

...according to Prof. Morgan Kelly, the guy that Bertie Ahern told to commit suicide when he warned about the property bubble back in 2007. Don't be taken surprise again, as so many were by the bursting of the bubble, and the IMF bailout - read the piece.

It's hard to explain briefly his arguments without losing a lot of meaning, but here are a couple of highlights from the article in the Irish Times today:

WITH THE Irish Government on track to owe a quarter of a trillion euro by 2014, a prolonged and chaotic national bankruptcy is becoming inevitable. By the time the dust settles, Ireland’s last remaining asset, its reputation as a safe place from which to conduct business, will have been destroyed.
Ireland is facing economic ruin.

Honohan’s miscalculation of the bank losses has turned out to be the costliest mistake ever made by an Irish person. Armed with Honohan’s assurances that the bank losses were manageable, the Irish government confidently rode into the Little Bighorn and repaid the bank bondholders, even those who had not been guaranteed under the original scheme. This suicidal policy culminated in the repayment of most of the outstanding bonds last September.

Given the political paralysis in the EU, and a European Central Bank that sees its main task as placating the editors of German tabloids, the most likely outcome of the European debt crisis is that, after two years or so to allow French and German banks to build up loss reserves, the insolvent economies will be forced into some sort of bankruptcy.
Make no mistake: while government defaults are almost the normal state of affairs in places like Greece and Argentina, for a country like Ireland that trades on its reputation as a safe place to do business, a bankruptcy would be catastrophic. Sovereign bankruptcies drag on for years as creditors hold out for better terms, or sell to so-called vulture funds that engage in endless litigation overseas to have national assets such as aircraft impounded in the hope that they can make a sufficient nuisance of themselves to be bought off.

It's a pretty well-argued piece, and I think it's something everyone who is planning on living in Ireland for the coming few years should read.

Chris P. Bacon · 07-05-2011 10:05am

Sure it will be grand

mike65 · 07-05-2011 10:07am

At least we are free to leave...

johngalway · 07-05-2011 10:07am

Thanks Monty, just what I needed to cheer me up of a Saturday morning :pac:

Chris P. Bacon · 07-05-2011 10:08am

mike65 wrote: »

At least we are free to leave...

Not everybody is.

swordofislam · 07-05-2011 10:13am

That doesn't make it official. Morgan Kelly is a loon. What did D - Ream say?

Monty Burnz · 07-05-2011 10:16am

swordofislam wrote: »

That doesn't make it official. Morgan Kelly is a loon.

That's what they said when he predicted the bust. That's also what they said when he said all the banks were fooked. And they said it again when he predicted that we'd have to be bailed out by the IMF. They all happened within a year or two.

swordofislam wrote: »

What did D - Ream say?

Was it 'People who don't read newspapers shouldn't get to vote'? :pac:

Here's the 'loon' commenting on the day of that marvellous idea, the bank guarantee that bankrupted us. Bear in mind this was in 2008, and the other guy is the terribly 'sane' Brendan Keenan...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=11CCxv2ueiQ

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:19am

less than 2 weeks left in Eire, I hope I don't have to come back ffs!

mike65 · 07-05-2011 10:26am

mike65 wrote: »

At least we are free to leave...

Chris P. Bacon wrote: »

Not everybody is.

I meant there is no-one with a gun at a checkpoint....obviously personal cicumstances are an issue but if a tidal wave was approaching and you knew that, you'd just pack the car and drive.

Coriolanus · 07-05-2011 10:29am

Dunno. I'm ok.

ChunkyLover_53 · 07-05-2011 10:29am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

less than 2 weeks left in Eire, I hope I don't have to come back ffs!

Cool. Any spare bin tags you're not using send them on to us.

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:29am

mike65 wrote: »

I meant there is no-one with a gun at a checkpoint....obviously personal cicumstances are an issue but if a tidal wave was approaching and you knew that, you'd just pack the car and drive.

I think he means the 90% of the population who paid €800,000 for a tiny flat somewhere around the M50, have 2 screaming kids and are now in negative equity for the rest of their lives. This would drive me to run away forever though.

getz · 07-05-2011 10:30am

mike65 wrote: »

I meant there is no-one with a gun at a checkpoint....obviously personal cicumstances are an issue but if a tidal wave was approaching and you knew that, you'd just pack the car and drive.

you live on a island

PatsytheNazi · 07-05-2011 10:30am

Chris P. Bacon wrote: »

Sure it will be grand

Yes, as Ahern used to say, the economic fundamentals are sound.......

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:30am

ChunkyLover_53 wrote: »

Cool. Any spare bin tags you're not using send them on to us.

No we don't use bin tags around this area. Anything else I can do for you?

Inbox · 07-05-2011 10:30am

We can just move across the border. It's grand up there from what I've read.

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:31am

Inbox wrote: »

We can just move across the border. It's grand up there from what I've read.

if you're fond of racist sociopaths

ChunkyLover_53 · 07-05-2011 10:32am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

No we don't use bin tags around this area. Anything else I can do for you?

Yeah when you move away, buy Irish. Cheers.

Rawhead · 07-05-2011 10:32am

Jesus H Christ. Keenan should be forced to watch that clip "clockwork orange" style for the rest of his days. That spunk drop cloth that portrays itself as a paper was as complicit as Bertie or Honahan in our demise.
I am in the process of making up the sandwich board as we speak and I'm going to hit for O'Connell street.

The end of the world is nigh..

spider guardian · 07-05-2011 10:33am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

if you're fond of racist sociopaths

Have you ever even been to the North?

Fukuyama · 07-05-2011 10:33am

I finish college next year and I plan to leave Ireland mere weeks after that.

What the hell is the point in staying so I can flail around miserably looking for a job. Live in a country (which although I love) is filled with nothing but doom and gloom.

You only get one life, and the am I living out my twenties in a ****hole... I may come back when i'm older to settle down. But until then, Poland here I come!

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:33am

ChunkyLover_53 wrote: »

Yeah when you move away, buy Irish. Cheers.

do we make anything good?

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:34am

Dean0088 wrote: »

I finish college next year and I plan to leave Ireland mere weeks after that.

What the hell is the point in staying so I can flail around miserably looking for a job. Live in a country (which although I love) is filled with nothing but doom and gloom.

You only get one life, and the am I living out my twenties in a ****hole... I may come back when i'm older to settle down. But until then, Poland here I come!

lol, going to Poland to escape doom and gloom. I can't think of a more depressing place. 40 million people and they are famous for NOTHING.

xflyer · 07-05-2011 10:34am

He's right again but it's no secret. We will default, not deliberately but we will. The only question is at what point the delusion that we can somehow manage this debt becomes clear to everyone including the EU/IMF. There's a collective head in the sand attitude about all this.

As for leaving, well we all can't and that isn't exactly a solution. Emigration never solved anything in Ireland before and won't again.

07-05-2011 10:36am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

do we make anything good?

Well.. we make nice tea.

Phill Ewinn · 07-05-2011 10:36am

We'll have to rebrand the place ''La la land''. Where people vote for career criminals and expect everything to go on like 'normal' countries. If the guards expect to still get paid in a year or two the might have to start doing their fvcking jobs and lock up a bunch of politicains, civil servants and bankers.

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:36am

spider guardian wrote: »

Have you ever even been to the North?

yes, sectarian abuse twice in one night while I was minding my own business, and saw Chinese people being attacked by thugs. This was in Belfast, lovely place.

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:36am

Deleted User wrote: »

Well.. we make nice tea.

We don't make tea in Ireland ffs

ChunkyLover_53 · 07-05-2011 10:38am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

We don't make tea in Ireland ffs

I just made 2 cups this morning.

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:40am

ChunkyLover_53 wrote: »

I just made 2 cups this morning.

Well I'd imagine it's from India or somewhere

spider guardian · 07-05-2011 10:41am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

yes, sectarian abuse twice in one night while I was minding my own business, and saw Chinese people being attacked by thugs. This was in Belfast, lovely place.

As if there have never been any racist attacks in the republic. Just because some idiots decided to act the bollix doesn't mean you should tar the whole place with one brush. I've been living up here for the best part of a year and haven't had any trouble whatsoever. The people couldn't be any nicer.

meditraitor · 07-05-2011 10:41am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

do we make anything good?

whiskey, Midleton are increasing their output as we speak nyom

ChunkyLover_53 · 07-05-2011 10:41am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

Well I'd imagine it's from India or somewhere

No mate from me kitchen

07-05-2011 10:42am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

We don't make tea in Ireland ffs

I dunno 'bout you, but I think I make a pretty wonderful cuppa.

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:45am

spider guardian wrote: »

As if there have never been any racist attacks in the republic. Just because some idiots decided to act the bollix doesn't mean you should tar the whole place with one brush. I've been living up here for the best part of a year and haven't had any trouble whatsoever. The people couldn't be any nicer.

There has never been a racist attack in the public. I dont see the point in the place anyway so my one experience put me off for life, and such vile accents. Sorry that you've had to live up there, condolences.

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:45am

Deleted User wrote: »

I dunno 'bout you, but I think I make a pretty wonderful cuppa.

do you grow your own leaves??

07-05-2011 10:46am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

do you grow your own leaves??

Did you?

DoneDL · 07-05-2011 10:47am

Miriam did say it would be a subject we would be coming back to, now will Greece pull the pin?

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:48am

Deleted User wrote: »

Did you?

used to grow a different type of plant under some halogen lights...

ChunkyLover_53 · 07-05-2011 10:49am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

used to grow a different type of plant under some halogen lights...

I grow Tomatoes too! :eek:

spider guardian · 07-05-2011 10:55am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

There has never been a racist attack in the public. I dont see the point in the place anyway so my one experience put me off for life, and such vile accents. Sorry that you've had to live up there, condolences.

Nothing sexier than a northern accent on a girl.

Really sorry that you're leaving the island. That's the painful legacy of the recession, losing fine young open-minded individuals such as yourself.

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 10:57am

spider guardian wrote: »

Nothing sexier than a northern accent on a girl.

Really sorry that you're leaving the island. That's the painful legacy of the recession, losing fine young open-minded individuals such as yourself.

I have a good job on 40k here, I'm just bored, and there's too much negativity in the place. I'm not going too far anyway so at least I can visit whenever I want.

spider guardian · 07-05-2011 10:59am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

I have a good job on 40k here, I'm just bored, and there's too much negativity in the place. I'm not going too far anyway so at least I can visit whenever I want.

You shouldn't let negativity get to you man, people will always have something to bitch and moan about. All you can do is worry about yourself.

Still if you are bored travel isn't a bad option.

07-05-2011 11:17am

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

used to grow a different type of plant under some halogen lights...

Probably wouldn't make for a very nice cuppa, mind.

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 11:24am

spider guardian wrote: »

You shouldn't let negativity get to you man, people will always have something to bitch and moan about. All you can do is worry about yourself.

Still if you are bored travel isn't a bad option.

I spent a couple of years travelling already, I'm just moving over to London, more career opportunities and I love the city. I'm not sure if I'll be able to take it for more than a couple of years before yearning for little old Dublin again, it's a bit non stop over there and crowded.

Monty Burnz · 07-05-2011 1:21pm

RTE are furiously ignoring this article and the points made in it. No reaction from our political class either. How odd.

As the article states...

Irish politicians are too used to being rewarded by Brussels to start fighting against it, even if it is a matter of national survival. It is easier to be led along blindfold until the noose is slipped around our necks and we are kicked through the trapdoor into bankruptcy.

Celly Smunt · 07-05-2011 1:24pm

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

I think he means the 90% of the population who paid €800,000 for a tiny flat somewhere around the M50, have 2 screaming kids and are now in negative equity for the rest of their lives. This would drive me to run away forever though.

they deserve it for being so stupid imo

Monty Burnz · 07-05-2011 1:26pm

pmcmahon wrote: »

they deserve it for being so stupid imo

Problem is, they are going to take the rest of us down with them.

BraziliaNZ · 07-05-2011 1:32pm

pmcmahon wrote: »

they deserve it for being so stupid imo

How the F*CK were people so stupid though? I rented throughout the boom, everyone told me it was "dead money", these people will now be paying back 500,000 for a house worth 250,000 now and probably less in the future.
How did anyone think house prices could stay so high in a country getting rich on selling land to each other? How come an idiot like me with no knowledge of economics even knew it would collapse?

Chnandler Bong · 07-05-2011 1:36pm

How come an idiot like me with no knowledge of economics even knew it would collapse?

Is that you Seanie?

Celly Smunt · 07-05-2011 1:44pm

BraziliaNZ wrote: »

How the F*CK were people so stupid though? I rented throughout the boom, everyone told me it was "dead money", these people will now be paying back 500,000 for a house worth 250,000 now and probably less in the future.
How did anyone think house prices could stay so high in a country getting rich on selling land to each other? How come an idiot like me with no knowledge of economics even knew it would collapse?

because when they saw their friend with a brand new B.M.W they had to keep up with him/her,so they got a loan and bought a B.M.W,and when their friend bought an apartment for €700,000 and he parked his B.M.W in his parking space he paid €30,000 for,they had to buy a €750,000 apartment to park theirs in,but then when they realised they couldn't live on only €300 a week (:rolleyes:),they had a great investment idea!,they'd buy a second property worth about €500,000 and rent it out!,then they found this quite profitable so they bought 2 more apartments.Through this they had holidays,brown thomas shopping trips,New york shopping for christmas,€60,000 wedding,new cars every year and only wore brand names.If they ever ran short,they'd go and re-mortgage.But the nice thing of all this was that this couple were earning €50,000 a year between them in their full time jobs yet they could have a millionaire lifestyle on the back of the banks who had a field-day lending to them,but when everything went balls up the couple feel victimised :rolleyes:

It's official: Ireland is doomed

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