The Return of the Messiah

Denners.ie

Certainly wasn't a Messiah but it had a nice ring to it.

Anyway, after a dreadful end to a somewhat profitable thread I have decided to give this another go.

Hopefully the fresh start will generate some luck, I am currently working on something for the weekend which should be up in the next few days.

Glad to see some old faces and new profitable logs, long may it continue fellow gamblers

Denners

Vurnon San Benito

Denners.ie wrote: »

Certainly wasn't a Messiah but it had a nice ring to it.

Anyway, after a dreadful end to a somewhat profitable thread I have decided to give this another go.

Hopefully the fresh start will generate some luck, I am currently working on something for the weekend which should be up in the next few days.

Glad to see some old faces and new profitable logs, long may it continue fellow gamblers

Denners

Coughlan? :eek:

Denners.ie

Doocey wrote: »

Coughlan? :eek:

Ah jaysus Doocey don't curse the log already :rolleyes:

And just so there is no misunderstanding no I'm not Coughlan! http://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?t=2055899311

UrbanSea

Good luck Denners.
Why the new account?

Denners.ie

Thanks greetings/Urban Sea, good to see your still around and making a bit of coin for yourself.

I just wanted to start fresh and keep this account for the log, hopefully it will bring some luck.

UrbanSea

Fair enough my dear fellow. Hopefully there's a few quid to be earned.

quiz

So whats your previous account name?

mike65

Denners!

Denners.ie

Thanks Mike.

Pyro can cross-reference the IP's for those of you that think I'm Coughlan :pac:

Gavin "shels"

You can spell and use punctuation, therefore you definitely aren't Coughlan!:D

jive

Gavin shels wrote: »

You can spelt and use punctuation, therefore you definitely aren't Coughlan!:D

Oh he can spelt alright


:P

Gavin "shels"

jive wrote: »

Oh he can spelt alright


:P

It's spell not spelt :S ?


Look at my edit reason btw!

jive

Gavin shels wrote: »

It's spell not spelt :S ?


Look at my edit reason btw!

:pac: All the banter comes out in Coughlan threads!! We welcome your return Coughlan08!!

Denners.ie

jive wrote: »

:pac: All the banter comes out in Coughlan threads!! We welcome your return Coughlan08!!

Not even a bet placed and there is already vicious rumours circulating over my identity :pac:

Serious craic all the same

(Edit) I have given my OP the seal of approval for the naysayers

x PyRo

Welcome back mate. Glad to have you here again. No more Cygnet's I hope! :pac:

Denners.ie

x PyRo wrote: »

Welcome back mate. Glad to have you here again. No more Cygnet's I hope! :pac:

Thanks Pyro.

Ah for every Cygnet there is a Canford Cliffs :pac: On that note it should be interesting if he comes up against Goldikova sometime this year.

Denners.ie

Alright gentlemen it is time to start making some coin.

I thought I would have a few bets for the weekend but it is proving to be more difficult than I thought, might have 1 or 2 for tomorrow.

Anyway, just something small for today.

Perth, 17:10 -Trendelenburg (5/4)

There is a question mark over the distance and ground, but I can't see any real danger in the field. A lot of horses with question marks surrounding them but if this fella takes well to the conditions he is definitely the one to beat.

Bank: €100

Stake: €10

Denners.ie

Only pennies but it was nice to start off with a winner Great ride by Callum Whillans.

However, my previous log started off well but ended disastrously, hopefully the omens aren't bad for this one :pac:

Bank: €112.50

Denners.ie

Not enough value in what I was initially planning so I have decided to steer clear. Just a treble at the moment.

Jose Aldo
Lyoto Machida
Jake Ellenberger

Works out at just under 6/4.

Bank: €112.50

Stake: €50

Denners.ie

John Higgins (6/4 In-running)

Only took it around 3/4 minutes ago and it has gone into 11/10 now.

Bank: €62.50

Stake: €12.50

Denners.ie

16:55 Newbury, Cai Shen (4/1)

Hamlool's 2nd to Dubawi Gold looks solid after his run earlier in the Guineas but this fella has an impressive turn of foot. Not sure how good he is but HAnnon and Hughes are lethal here.

Bank: €50

Stake: €5 e/w

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

16:55 Newbury, Cai Shen (4/1)

Hamlool's 2nd to Dubawi Gold looks solid after his run earlier in the Guineas but this fella has an impressive turn of foot. Not sure how good he is but HAnnon and Hughes are lethal here.

Bank: €50

Stake: €5 e/w

Was beaten by a Godolphin and better horse, 2nd. E/w @ 4/1 got my money back.

Bank: €50

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

John Higgins (6/4 In-running)

Only took it around 3/4 minutes ago and it has gone into 11/10 now.

Bank: €62.50

Stake: €12.50

Win

Bank: €81.25

Denners.ie

Already have €50 in-play so just a very small bet on Lyoto Machida to win on points or KO. (4/7)

Bank: € 81.25

Stake: € 11.25

quiz

Your betting above a full kelly stake.

even if every bet you place has value you will lose in the long run. It may be the reason for the end of the last log.

how do you find pricing up multiple sports?

Denners.ie

quiz wrote: »

Your betting above a full kelly stake.

even if every bet you place has value you will lose in the long run. It may be the reason for the end of the last log.

how do you find pricing up multiple sports?

Nice to see my log will lose in the long run, cheers for the heads up.

I take my bets on confidence really, if you want me to explain all my bets in detail so far I can.

I think the the reason my last log ended was because I bet everything on one event, up until that I think I was around 300% + up on my initial bank.

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

Not enough value in what I was initially planning so I have decided to steer clear. Just a treble at the moment.

Jose Aldo
Lyoto Machida
Jake Ellenberger

Works out at just under 6/4.

Bank: €112.50

Stake: €50

Win

Denners.ie wrote: »

Already have €50 in-play so just a very small bet on Lyoto Machida to win on points or KO. (4/7)

Bank: € 81.25

Stake: € 11.25

Win

A good 2 days really, have already turned over 100% profit on my initial bank.

No. of Bets Placed: 5
Win: 4
Push: 1 ( Second place horse e/w, money returned)
Lose: 0
Profit: €109.49 +

Bank: €209.49

quiz

Its not my personal opinion. Its the maths. Google kelly criterion.

Denners.ie

quiz wrote: »

Its not my personal opinion. Its the maths. Google kelly criterion.

You obviously haven't heard of the Denners' Special which consists of making as much money as possible

quiz

Good luck.

prebook the ferrari now as the waiting lists are long.

Denners.ie

Punchestown 18:40, Quel Esprit (10/3)

Seems like a very open day of racing at the festival and it is the same in this race, however after seeing how well he was travelling at Cheltenham it could be that the 3m 1f is what this horse needs. His jumping is dodgy at times and he fell in his two previous runs, but with PP refunding all losing bets on horses who fall this is worth a shot.

Bank: €200

Stake: €9.49

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

Punchestown 18:40, Quel Esprit (10/3)

Seems like a very open day of racing at the festival and it is the same in this race, however after seeing how well he was travelling at Cheltenham it could be that the 3m 1f is what this horse needs. His jumping is dodgy at times and he fell in his two previous runs, but with PP refunding all losing bets on horses who fall this is worth a shot.

Bank: €200

Stake: €9.49

Push

Couldn't stay on his feet but the refund from PP was well worth the chance.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

* I have decided to withdraw €101 to ensure that everything in my current bank is profit.

Bank: €209.49 (withdrawal of €101) = €108.49

Real Madrid (+1) In-running (4/7)

Was going to take this at 9/2 just before they scored but although they are capable I don't think Barca will score 2 goals.

Stake: €18.49

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

Real Madrid (+1) In-running (4/7)

Was going to take this at 9/2 just before they scored but although they are capable I don't think Barca will score 2 goals.

Stake: €18.49

Win

Bank: €119.06

Denners.ie

16:55 Punchestown, Mossey Joe (7/1)

Form is good for this horse with his only loss coming 12 1/2 lengths to Mourad on ground that didn't suit. A friend is really sweet on this fella and has told me about him before, he feels the step down to novice company is well within his grasp. I actually had him on ante post for the Albert Bartlett but owners decided to skip it after not impressing at Christmas and actually pulled him from the stable. Hopefully he will give a good account of himself tomorrow, a lot of confidence for this horse is what I am told.

Bank: €119.06

Stake: €14.53 E/W

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

16:55 Punchestown, Mossey Joe (7/1)

Form is good for this horse with his only loss coming 12 1/2 lengths to Mourad on ground that didn't suit. A friend is really sweet on this fella and has told me about him before, he feels the step down to novice company is well within his grasp. I actually had him on ante post for the Albert Bartlett but owners decided to skip it after not impressing at Christmas and actually pulled him from the stable. Hopefully he will give a good account of himself tomorrow, a lot of confidence for this horse is what I am told.

Bank: €119.06

Stake: €14.53 E/W

Ran really well after pulling hard for a circuit but was beaten by a 33/1 shot. Gutted.:(

I didn't think Paul Carberry was too hard on him either but I will get him next time on good ground. Today was definitely one that got away though with him drifting to 10/1 and going off 9/1.

Bank: €130.68

Denners.ie

17:30 Punchestown, Quevega (10/11)

If Mossey Joe had won earlier a big lump would be going on this mare. Beautiful animal who will definitely take all the beating tomorrow, can't believe she is 10/11 and evens which will probably take a drop when backers get on the Walsh/Mullins combination. If she turns up in good form I can't see anything to trouble her, Mourad should run well but very confident about this mare.

Bank: €130.68

Stake: €50.68

Denners.ie

17:30 Punchestown, Quevega
18:40 Punchestown, Captain Chris

Captain Chris has been heavily campaigned this season but I just don't feel there is anything good enough in the field to take him on. Has been steadily improving and stays well, the ground will suit also.

Double (9/4)

Bank: €80 (€50 In-play)

Stake: €30

turbobaby

Going well... Keep it up!

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

17:30 Punchestown, Quevega (10/11)

If Mossey Joe had won earlier a big lump would be going on this mare. Beautiful animal who will definitely take all the beating tomorrow, can't believe she is 10/11 and evens which will probably take a drop when backers get on the Walsh/Mullins combination. If she turns up in good form I can't see anything to trouble her, Mourad should run well but very confident about this mare.

Bank: €130.68

Stake: €50.68

Win

Love that horse, went as I thought, Mourad put in a good performance but just couldn't get her. She battered the last but Ruby didn't even need to have a clip at her, wonderful mare.

Bank: €146.75 (€30 in-play)

fkiely

Nice two winners there. Was on the 9/4 myself, thought it was a steal.

Keep up the good work, glad to see it's going well.

Denners.ie

fkiely wrote: »

Nice two winners there. Was on the 9/4 myself, thought it was a steal.

Keep up the good work, glad to see it's going well.

Thanks, ya was a fabulous price really.

Denners.ie wrote: »

17:30 Punchestown, Quevega
18:40 Punchestown, Captain Chris

Captain Chris has been heavily campaigned this season but I just don't feel there is anything good enough in the field to take him on. Has been steadily improving and stays well, the ground will suit also.

Double (9/4)

Bank: €80 (€50 In-play)

Stake: €30

Win

Bank: €247.39

No.of bets placed: 5 (10 in total)
Win: 3
Push: 2 (Quel Esprit money back special, Mossey Joe 2nd)
Lose: 0
Profit: €247.39 (+247.39%)

markc91

Thats some great form you're in man, good to see. Keep it up!!

Denners.ie

Only getting this up late as was at Punchestown yesterday.

16:25 Punchestown, Grandouet (7/2)

I saw him at 7/2 last night and couldn't let that go. Unaccompanied is the favourite and came 2nd in Cheltenham, a place ahead of this fella, when both lost to Zarkander. Grandouet came on for that run and looked to be cruising at Aintree when he was brought down at the last, if he had stayed up and beat Zarkander that day he would probably be favourite. Unaccompanied beat an unfit St. Nicholas Abbey and is a good horse, but at 5/6 I wouldn't touch him. Hopefully the flatter track at Punchestown won't be as testing as the hill and Grandouet is definitely worth a shot at 7/2.

Bank: €247.39

Stake: €27.39

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

Only getting this up late as was at Punchestown yesterday.

16:25 Punchestown, Grandouet (7/2)

I saw him at 7/2 last night and couldn't let that go. Unaccompanied is the favourite and came 2nd in Cheltenham, a place ahead of this fella, when both lost to Zarkander. Grandouet came on for that run and looked to be cruising at Aintree when he was brought down at the last, if he had stayed up and beat Zarkander that day he would probably be favourite. Unaccompanied beat an unfit St. Nicholas Abbey and is a good horse, but at 5/6 I wouldn't touch him. Hopefully the flatter track at Punchestown won't be as testing as the hill and Grandouet is definitely worth a shot at 7/2.

Bank: €247.39

Stake: €27.39

Right to the plan, great performance. Flatter tracks definitely suit him better and looking forward to seeing him next year whatever they decide. Probably one of the craziest prices I've seen for a horse with that much quality in awhile.

Bank: €343.26

Denners.ie

Manny Pacquiao to win by KO/TKO (8/13)

Mosley has never been stopped but I'm hoping the speed and volume of Pacquiao will overwhelm him around rounds 8/9/10.

Bank: €343.26

Stake: €23.26

Denners.ie

Denners.ie wrote: »

Manny Pacquiao to win by KO/TKO (8/13)

Mosley has never been stopped but I'm hoping the speed and volume of Pacquiao will overwhelm him around rounds 8/9/10.

Bank: €343.26

Stake: €23.26

Lose

Had to happen at sometime. Very poor fight, Mosley was happy to just stay the distance and Pacquiao's intensity and volume was terrible. A poor game of cat and mouse.

Bank: €320

TheMilkyPirate

Denners.ie wrote: »

Right to the plan, great performance. Flatter tracks definitely suit him better and looking forward to seeing him next year whatever they decide. Probably one of the craziest prices I've seen for a horse with that much quality in awhile.

Bank: €343.26

Too true, A real rare c0ck up from the bookies. Had 50 on at 7/2 and a 30 double with beautiful sound.. It's a cruel game sometimes.

Keep up the good work with the log your doing great.

Denners.ie

baraca wrote: »

Too true, A real rare c0ck up from the bookies. Had 50 on at 7/2 and a 30 double with beautiful sound.. It's a cruel game sometimes.

Keep up the good work with the log your doing great.

Cheers Baraca.

Ya was a great price, if I had had a clear head I should have gone back in again but was still a bit shook from Punchestown on Friday .

I wouldn't have been overly impressed with Russell on Beautiful Sound, the horses best form was on soft and heavy ground and he pulled him extremely wide giving away lengths onto better ground that was fresh, a strange one.
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

20:00 Fulham v Liverpool, Liverpool Draw no Bet (4/5)

Fulham are a good side at home and will be tough to beat but there seems to be some value in Liverpool at this price. Carroll is omitted but Liverpool will be looking to win to get a lead on Tottenham for 5th place. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a draw but I'm willing to take the chance at 4/5.

Bank: €320

Stake: €50

LightningBlue

Looks like the Liverpool bet is safe after 10 mins. Good shout man.

Score after 10 mins: Fulham 0 - 2 Liverpool (Maxi Rodriguez 1' ,7' )

LightningBlue

Christ what is wrong with Fulham tonight its 3-0 to Liverpool now!
Kuyt the goalscorer

Final Score: Fulham 2 - Liverpool 5

Denners.ie

LightningBlue wrote: »

Christ what is wrong with Fulham tonight its 3-0 to Liverpool now!
Kuyt the goalscorer

Final Score: Fulham 2 - Liverpool 5

Thought it would be more difficult than that for Liverpool tbh. Was one of the more enjoyable bets I've had all the same .

Denners.ie wrote: »

20:00 Fulham v Liverpool, Liverpool Draw no Bet (4/5)

Fulham are a good side at home and will be tough to beat but there seems to be some value in Liverpool at this price. Carroll is omitted but Liverpool will be looking to win to get a lead on Tottenham for 5th place. I wouldn't be surprised if it was a draw but I'm willing to take the chance at 4/5.

Bank: €320

Stake: €50

Win

Nice to get back to winning ways.

Bank: €360