The Heritage / China Open

ValueSeeker

Premium this week at the Heritage is on ball striking and accuracy. If you look at the recent leaderboards down the years, it's people like Jim Fuyrk, Brian Gay, Heath slocum, Boo Weekley etc who feature regularly. I'll be staying away from the market leaders and looking further down the list for some potentially good trading opportunities. Anyone looking to get into trading, I've written an article outlining a strategy I use and given screenshots with examples of the potential profitability:

Article here for anyone interested.

Headline Picks: Ian Poulter and Francesco Molinari. Both around the 40/1 mark and bigger on betfair. 2 fantastic ball strikers and shot makers and could do well around here although lacking course experience.

Derek!

Nice one Nic, Ive been lookin to get into golf tradin myself so your picks and article will be really helpful.

Fursttimer

No sponsor for the event this year but one is in the pipeline, supposedly.

Par 71, 150 bunkers and probably the smallest greens on tour.

Course is picture perfect for Aaron Baddeley (25's). 16 of his 22 rounds here have been under par (scoring average of 69.14). Winner of the event in 2006.

This course should suit Jonathan Byrd (100's) but he hasn't performed that well here in the past (71.33 scoring average). Before his missed cut at the masters his game was in great shape. He hits lots of greens and is a great putter so worth a punt this week.

Lively outsiders:

Stephen Ames (150's) is a great ball striker although at times his putting leaves a lot to be desired. He likes this event though so worth picking.

Heath Slocum (150's) thrives on tight courses. He hits every fairway and if he fails to find the green, don't worry, he's a great scrambler.

Camilo Villegas (130's) one of, if not, the best course management golfers on the PGA Tour. This track is right up his alley.

1st Round Leader:

Blake Adams (230/1, waiting to get matched, most likely will ) shot 63 in the second round last year, taking just 18 putts. Drive's the ball well which will put him in position round this course so worth a little wager for 1st round leader

Good luck dudes

ValueSeeker

Just want to give an extra mention here to Ben Curtis who's jumping out at me (of the players at huge odds). 1 of the most accurate off the tee on tour and good course management skills / experience. His record doesn't read very well here but he's a strange player that has long periods out of form. He is however coming off a recent top 25 at the Shell and when his short stick is on, he can really contend. Quite interested in him this week at such a huge price.

ValueSeeker

I'm looking at Jeev Milkha Singh in the China Open @ 60/1. Much travelled and seems to be coming back from the wilderness he's been in for 2 years. A player I don't like to be around the leaderboard when I have contenders. Danny Willett (40) and Simon Dyson (25) look ready to hit first gear. Robert Rock (80) ridiculously priced on the back of a couple of top 20's.

zimmermania

ValueSeeker wrote: »

I'm looking at Jeev Milkha Singh in the China Open @ 60/1. Much travelled and seems to be coming back from the wilderness he's been in for 2 years. A player I don't like to be around the leaderboard when I have contenders. Danny Willett (40) and Simon Dyson (25) look ready to hit first gear. Robert Rock (80) ridiculously priced on the back of a couple of top 20's.

Im not so sure Jeeve can win and Rock always finds winning difficult.I found your article interesting though i only lay myself,fancied ones before play and others in runnning i find thats the only way to make money.I also do a few match bets and 1st round 3 balls if theres a bit of value.I look for players who have not played well on the course in the past and who might not be in the best of form at the moment,the racing post on wed provides all the info required.

ValueSeeker

That's a very dangerous strategy though mate unless you have some sort of exit plan?

How long have you been doing it for, how many players do you back per tourney and what are the av odds? I take it you realise you have HUGE liabilities and at some point in time things won't go as planned.

zimmermania

ValueSeeker wrote: »

That's a very dangerous strategy though mate unless you have some sort of exit plan?

How long have you been doing it for, how many players do you back per tourney and what are the av odds? I take it you realise you have HUGE liabilities and at some point in time things won't go as planned.

I have been laying for 6 months,liabilities not really huge as there can only be 1 winner.There is a lot of handy money to be picked up laying no hopers at fancy prices coming down the stretch.I steer clear of proven winners unless they are obviously out of form.If one looks like its going to win i can always back it,though i try to avoid doing so.I am out thur and sat night so my main in running bets are fri and sun nights.On average i wind up laying about 15 players per tournament.Negatives this week in the heritage,Sneddeker kelly Streelman Appelby Gainey Thatcher Imada Fowler? Beckman. Positives,Molinari Crane Kuchar Day Cink Weekly Van pelt Haas. China trickey there is no course form.Positives Gallacher Negatives Kjeldsen (too short on a wet track) Horsey also too short and does not hit enough greens in regulation.Harrington as a lay is normally a sure thing,but this week i will have to see he performs.He has the family with him,he gets his appearance money so one would be entitled to think he wont be focussed,however that might be in his favour as its unlikely that Bob Rotella will be sharing a bed with himself and Caroline and being relaxed in a mickey mouse tour event might be just what he needs,so sadly i am deprived of my banker lay.My only hope is that he gets into contention,winds up a very skinny price and then manages as usual to clutch defeat from the jaws of victory.Happy punting.

Fursttimer

Whacked a few bob on this lot

Joe Durant 640's
Kyle Stanley 290's
Tim Petrovic 430's
Cameron Trigale 310's
Matt Bettencourt 440's

heavyballs

US
Zach Johnson @45/1
Brian Gay @33/1
China
Stephen Gallagher @33/1

All e/w 6 places

zimmermania

heavyballs wrote: »

US
Zach Johnson @45/1
Brian Gay @33/1
China
Stephen Gallagher @33/1

All e/w 6 places

Gallacher 41 to 1 Gay 37 to1 Johnson 64! to 1 on betfair Johnson doesnt hit enough greens in regulation to make him a bet,i see him as a lay the other 2 have reasonable chances.but you should be taking the best prices.

wiger toods

kevin Na 80/1
Freddie jacobson 45/1
Both e5 outright!
Get your Plaid on, Lads!

Fursttimer

zimmermania wrote: »

Johnson doesnt hit enough greens in regulation to make him a bet

You can throw your GIR stats out the window, especially on this course. In fact, GIR stats are very, very misleading in golf. The most important aspect of playing well at Harbour Town is scrambling. Up and down. Whether it be from the rough or bunkers. Johnson happens to excel in that area, mainly due to his excellent putting. You can't take one thing into consideration and just rule him out. Johnson plays exceptional on bermuda grass, which Harbour Town is. 3 of his 7 career wins are on Bermuda and he also has 6 top 3 places on that surface. Just under half of his rounds on this course have been under par, which is pretty average but still, to rule a player out because his doesn't have good GIR stats this season is foolish enough.

You don't have to go back far to the days when Johnson excelled in that area of the game but like I said already, those stats especially are very misleading. Like many, Johnson has the game to win here and shouldn't be so easily dismissed.

You are right. it's very stupid not to place golf bets on betfair. It's extremely easy to deposit and withdraw. Losers will always be losers though.

noelpat

zimmermania wrote: »

Gallacher 41 to 1 Gay 37 to1 Johnson 64! to 1 on betfair Johnson doesnt hit enough greens in regulation to make him a bet,i see him as a lay the other 2 have reasonable chances.but you should be taking the best prices.

Can it really be that profitable laying a 63/1 shot or whatever his odds are? Am i missing something? Im new to laying in the golf so maybe I am.

zimmermania

noelpat wrote: »

Can it really be that profitable laying a 63/1 shot or whatever his odds are? Am i missing something? Im new to laying in the golf so maybe I am.

I did not lay johnson in fact i have not laid anyone yet in the heritage,plenty of time yet.I have laid Harrington at 16 to one as i have been laying him regularly.63to 1 is too high for for me to lay Johnson so hopefully he will come down in price if he makes any sort of resonable start.

noelpat

zimmermania wrote: »

I did not lay johnson in fact i have not laid anyone yet in the heritage,plenty of time yet.I have laid Harrington at 16 to one as i have been laying him regularly.63to 1 is too high for for me to lay Johnson so hopefully he will come down in price if he makes any sort of resonable start.

Oh I see now sorry about that I completely misunderstood what you were saying. Do you find the golf a good sport to lay though? Im just asking cause Im thinking about trying to get into it myself.

zimmermania

Fursttimer wrote: »

You can throw your GIR stats out the window, especially on this course. In fact, GIR stats are very, very misleading in golf. The most important aspect of playing well at Harbour Town is scrambling. Up and down. Whether it be from the rough or bunkers. Johnson happens to excel in that area, mainly due to his excellent putting. You can't take one thing into consideration and just rule him out. Johnson plays exceptional on bermuda grass, which Harbour Town is. 3 of his 7 career wins are on Bermuda and he also has 6 top 3 places on that surface. Just under half of his rounds on this course have been under par, which is pretty average but still, to rule a player out because his doesn't have good GIR stats this season is foolish enough.

You don't have to go back far to the days when Johnson excelled in that area of the game but like I said already, those stats especially are very misleading. Like many, Johnson has the game to win here and shouldn't be so easily dismissed.

You are right. it's very stupid not to place golf bets on betfair. It's extremely easy to deposit and withdraw. Losers will always be losers though.

Johnson is a reasonable putter,currently 39th,a short hitter his record at this course is a missed cut 37th and 47th and he missed the cut on his most recent outing making him a lay for me if the price is right.Betting on golf or anything else is about opinions and it is a subjective business,one punter thinks a price is too long another thinks its too short and betfair provide the vechicle for us to support our opinions with cash,fantastic and the reason most punters lose regularly is because they are not satisfied to win small amounts regularly.One example,i put up Kjeldsen tonight as a lay yet i have already backed him to win tonight,the reason,he traded at 70 to 1 for a very brief period and even though i believe he cannot win i backed him and of course i expect to be laying him at a much shorter price to show a profit.

heavyballs

zimmermania wrote: »

Johnson is a reasonable putter,currently 39th,a short hitter his record at this course is a missed cut 37th and 47th and he missed the cut on his most recent outing making him a lay for me if the price is right.Betting on golf or anything else is about opinions and it is a subjective business,one punter thinks a price is too long another thinks its too short and betfair provide the vechicle for us to support our opinions with cash,fantastic and the reason most punters lose regularly is because they are not satisfied to win small amounts regularly.One example,i put up Kjeldsen tonight as a lay yet i have already backed him to win tonight,the reason,he traded at 70 to 1 for a very brief period and even though i believe he cannot win i backed him and of course i expect to be laying him at a much shorter price to show a profit.

as you're laying it's quite easy to look at stats like this to wittle down the field but to me it's still dodgy,look at the weird winners this year ,take last week's winner for e.g and look at his stats etc before the comp they were cra*.
fact is the person who's putter (in particular) is on fire will win,a week off may have done Zach the world of good,also looking back at all the winners over the past couple of years course form doesn't stack up as much as you think it does

heavyballs

zimmermania wrote: »

Gallacher 41 to 1 Gay 37 to1 Johnson 64! to 1 on betfair Johnson doesnt hit enough greens in regulation to make him a bet,i see him as a lay the other 2 have reasonable chances.but you should be taking the best prices.

i'm well aware of betfair and it's prices but not interested in online accounts,also i didn't put my bets up to be taken apart,let them run first ffs

zimmermania

heavyballs wrote: »

i'm well aware of betfair and it's prices but not interested in online accounts,also i didn't put my bets up to be taken apart,let them run first ffs

Hey man,i was not taking your bets apart.I dont care who wins a tournament i was merely pointing out that to have any chance of finishing ahead one needs to get the best odds.As i normally do not back to win (except to lay at a shorter price long before the tournament is over) i look for value bets.I will give you the example of Kjeldson and Harrington both of whom i suggested as lay bets.I have already taken a profit on Kjeldson,i could do the same with Harrington but i wont as there is a chance he might miss the cut and he is now around 40 to 1 on betfair.The leaderboard is shaping up very well now for layers and many of those in the top 10 wont be mapped on sun.i am disappointed you are getting a bit shirty and i was only trying to be helpful.One final point,laying golfers at huge prices is only justified on sunday,when they have 20 or more players in front of them and they are 4 or 5 and sometimes 6 behind with 9 to play and they are not Woods or Mickelson.Its not everyones cup of tea but as a sometimes layer for a year and half and a committedlayer since around october my betting bank with betfair is now 4 and a half times greater than it was when i started,not all due to golfand i can honestly say i have only had one losing tour event since october.A lifelong punter i now hardly ever look at the racing pages and only bet on GROUP races.This was probably my best cheltenham ever i only had one bet and it lost.

zimmermania

I have now layed Maybin Noren and Morrison.

Aidric

Villegas e/w @ 66/1.

zimmermania

Layed Donald @8.4 Atwal @23 and Snedeker @33s in the heritage

wiger toods

just did billy hass at 16/1 in running, 10 quid. Defo end of my betting this week now, just sorry i didnt make up my mind sooner when he was thirty's! fcuk!:pac:

heavyballs

zimmermania wrote: »

Gallacher 41 to 1 Gay 37 to1 Johnson 64! to 1 on betfair Johnson doesnt hit enough greens in regulation to make him a bet,i see him as a lay the other 2 have reasonable chances.but you should be taking the best prices.

at those prices and e/w 6 places i'm happy to keep backing in my local,btw what are the place terms on bf from the start of a comp?

paddypowder

i liked the look of harrington today .

threw 3e/w on him at 40/1

zimmermania

heavyballs wrote: »

at those prices and e/w 6 places i'm happy to keep backing in my local,btw what are the place terms on bf from the start of a comp?

Betfair bet place only top 5 and place only top 10 also sometimes make the cut,prices vary as its punter against punter,go onto their site you dont even have to register.For a golf punter its brill

wiger toods

wiger toods wrote: »

just did billy hass at 16/1 in running, 10 quid. Defo end of my betting this week now, just sorry i didnt make up my mind sooner when he was thirty's! fcuk!:pac:

What the fcuk happened here?
Last i checked, that lad was -6, flying it.
I checked it this morning and he's =1? FFS:mad:

heavyballs

wiger toods wrote: »

What the fcuk happened here?
Last i checked, that lad was -6, flying it.
I checked it this morning and he's =1? FFS:mad:

you backed him kid,that's what happened:D

zimmermania

heavyballs wrote: »

you backed him kid,that's what happened:D

Its much easier to pick losers than winners.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

I have now layed Maybin Noren and Morrison.

Played golf today so did not see anything of the china open,weghing up some more lays,layed Cabrabelo,Davies and Ramsey.I see my main lay Harrigton failed to make the cut and Noren also bit the dust.It is now 3 years since Harrington won a proper tournament and he has become a layers dream.He was 16 to to 1 to win when 50 to 1 would have been more realistic.

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Layed Donald @8.4 Atwal @23 and Snedeker @33s in the heritage

Layed Willis will have to consider backing Donald as he seems to to be in top form,will decide in the next 15 minutes,i think this might be his week

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Layed Willis will have to consider backing Donald as he seems to to be in top form,will decide in the next 15 minutes,i think this might be his week

Backed Donald now have no liability on him

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Backed Donald now have no liability on him

Im glad i did Donald is now in the lead,i layed Couch and Trahan

wiger toods

heavyballs wrote: »

you backed him kid,that's what happened:D

:pac:

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Im glad i did Donald is now in the lead,i layed Couch and Trahan

laid Baddely and Dufner

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

laid Baddely and Dufner

Laid Mark Wilson

zimmermania

zimmermania wrote: »

Laid Mark Wilson

Laid Nick OHern,i hope this stuff isnt boring.Iam just trying to show how this lay stuff works as its happening for those who are not used to it.Iwont be doing it again.

Fursttimer

Might not p1ss people off if you actually provided some evidence of all this chit-chat

wiger toods

Aidric wrote: »

Villegas e/w @ 66/1.

nice for some eh?
looking good after round 2, u bastard!!!!:pac:

ValueSeeker

You seem to be just laying golfers willy nilly with no plan or strategy? It's pointless unless you can do the longterm maths of it. IE: Factor in the inevitable bad runs when your players keep going on to win.

zimmermania

Fursttimer wrote: »

Might not p1ss people off if you actually provided some evidence of all this chit-chat

What do you want me to do? show my betfair account screen.I put my opionions up before tournament started.The bets im making now in running may or may not make a profit.I will be laying a lot more players between now and sunday and i was going to post them here so that those interested in laying would see how it works.Idont think i will bother now.

heavyballs

zimmermania wrote: »

Backed Donald now have no liability on him

at what price,you layed him at 8.4(so you say)personally i think you're full of it....your just guessing,,nothing more
you lat Donald then as he's looking well you back him and say there's no liability.......i guess you'll prety much say the same thing if any of your 'lays' are in contention or even go on to win
come on JM Singh son, you can do it

Derek!

Im far from an expert here on golf but I was looking on betfair and at the moment Garrett Willis is 1 shot behind Luke Donald yet hes 26/1. Does anyone think its worth a few euro?

jive

Derek! wrote: »

Im far from an expert here on golf but I was looking on betfair and at the moment Garrett Willis is 1 shot behind Luke Donald yet hes 26/1. Does anyone think its worth a few euro?

Only time will tell! Looking at the leaderboard there are some top players in and around that score (e.g. Furyk, Villegas, Day, Poulter) so I wouldn't be backing him. That's just me though. I haven't watched any of the golf but given that there are so many good players doing well that price looks about right. Out of the players that are near the top I'd probably take Poulter @ 16/1 even though he's 3 back. Haven't watched him since Augusta but he played some good stuff apart from bottling it when he hit the sprinkler. Donald was awesome on Sunday at Augusta as well so it's hard to know! No value in backing Donald now though

Derek!

Nice one Jive, Im fairly new to bettin on golf so I wouldnt be puttin much money on anyone anyway. Do you bet on it each week yourself?

zimmermania

heavyballs wrote: »

at what price,you layed him at 8.4(so you say)personally i think you're full of it....your just guessing,,nothing more
you lat Donald then as he's looking well you back him and say there's no liability.......i guess you'll prety much say the same thing if any of your 'lays' are in contention or even go on to win
come on JM Singh son, you can do it

Goodbye im wasting my time with yourself and valueseeker you both seem to be clueless,when i said i had no liability I meant if Donald won i would not be paying out,of course it cost me as i could only get 4s having laid him at 8.4,but thats what you do,the reverse happened with Kjeldson and would have happened with Harrington had i wanted it to happen.Laying is all about reacting to events as they happen and making a judgement call,its obvious to me that you cannot grasp it.When you suggest im guessing,you are of course correct.Everyone who places a bet is in fact guessing,albeit using whatever knowledge they posess to guess correctly.I can see i made a mistake posting here so you wont be hearing from me again its people like you make it easy for people like me to win so instead of enlightening you i am outa here.

heavyballs

zimmermania wrote: »

Goodbye im wasting my time with yourself and valueseeker you both seem to be clueless,when i said i had no liability I meant if Donald won i would not be paying out,of course it cost me as i could only get 4s having laid him at 8.4,but thats what you do,the reverse happened with Kjeldson and would have happened with Harrington had i wanted it to happen.Laying is all about reacting to events as they happen and making a judgement call,its obvious to me that you cannot grasp it.When you suggest im guessing,you are of course correct.Everyone who places a bet is in fact guessing,albeit using whatever knowledge they posess to guess correctly.I can see i made a mistake posting here so you wont be hearing from me again its people like you make it easy for people like me to win so instead of enlightening you i am outa here.

that just sums you up,you think you know it all,telling people the bets they placed wouldn't win,,,,,,,,,,,,,well done in a field of 156 or so
example, you said you didn't think he'd win,well done Einstein

why didn't you set up a seperate thread for laying instead of making a complete bo**ox of this thread with your endless list of lays,at least that way i could chose to totally ignore your ...............

jive

Derek! wrote: »

Nice one Jive, Im fairly new to bettin on golf so I wouldnt be puttin much money on anyone anyway. Do you bet on it each week yourself?

Nope not on the golf anyway!! I usually only bet on the 4 majors for a bit of interest. I bet on the golf occasionally but not religiously each week Though plenty of people on here do bet on it each week!

Fursttimer

zimmermania wrote: »

What do you want me to do? show my betfair account screen.I put my opionions up before tournament started.The bets im making now in running may or may not make a profit.I will be laying a lot more players between now and sunday and i was going to post them here so that those interested in laying would see how it works.Idont think i will bother now.

Yep. It's pretty simple to do.

Those that are interested in laying don't get any knowledge from logging on here every day (or every second day) and seeing that you've posted up 4 golfers the previous night.

Capture 'My Bets' on the Hertiage screen on betfair and then people will be able to make out what you've been doing.

The way you've reacted to 2 posters (saying they are clueless blah blah) is, usually, a clear sign that the person is full of sh1t = defence mode

I wouldn't make judgement on that until I've seen the full facts, which is, a screen capture of your long list of bets.

heavyballs

zimmermania wrote: »

Layed Donald @8.4 Atwal @23 and Snedeker @33s in the heritage

well done,:D..........let me guess.......you traded out and lost no money.........ok then