What would you pay now?

gurramok

Ah, the dual income stuff rares its head again.

Just because the market has gone down doesn't mean the fundamentals have no bearing on the market. Not everybody is a first time buyer,the national average wage is lower than the capital average wage and there are now a lot more two income families along with single people. You probably should think about the big picture rather than what you would like to happen.

You need FTB's to help the market function. That is a fact, whether they are single or a couple the property market always needs new entrants or you have stagnation.

On dual incomes, they along with single buyers are fewer in number due to the economic situation. This(along with a huge range of factors) is what will help those 3beds to be in reach of single buyers as prices fall to reflect this.

The dual income criteria was a necessity in the bubble years to support bubble prices, those prices will not be coming back for many years so the prices will be attainable for single buyers and quite sustainable to reflect the make up of society.

Ray Palmer

gurramok wrote: »

Ah, the dual income stuff rares its head again.



You need FTB's to help the market function. That is a fact, whether they are single or a couple the property market always needs new entrants or you have stagnation.

On dual incomes, they along with single buyers are fewer in number due to the economic situation. This(along with a huge range of factors) is what will help those 3beds to be in reach of single buyers as prices fall to reflect this.

The dual income criteria was a necessity in the bubble years to support bubble prices, those prices will not be coming back for many years so the prices will be attainable for single buyers and quite sustainable to reflect the make up of society.

Never said you didn't need FTB just that they aren't destined to be able to afford a 3 bed house as a standard on a single national average wage in an area where incomes are higher. Why do you think that is definitely going to happen and stay that way?
Lots of double income people waiting to sell their apartments to buy a house. Apartments are now the more likely step for single income people rather than a 3 bed family house.

Dual income is more than norm for a couple who are more likely going to need a 3 bed house. That will generally what will keep the single income from being able to buy a 3 bed house. The market is no longer 3 bed houses for everybody lots of other stock about now.


Unemployment is not actually massively high as a percentage of the overall population so lots of people are still employed. The market is scared not actually completely destroyed. If you actually truly understood "bubble" the after effects are equally wrong and unsustainable.

gurramok

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Never said you didn't need FTB just that they aren't destined to be able to afford a 3 bed house as a standard on a single national average wage in an area where incomes are higher. Why do you think that is definitely going to happen and stay that way?
Lots of double income people waiting to sell their apartments to buy a house. Apartments are now the more likely step for single income people rather than a 3 bed family house.

Dual income is more than norm for a couple who are more likely going to need a 3 bed house. That will generally what will keep the single income from being able to buy a 3 bed house. The market is no longer 3 bed houses for everybody lots of other stock about now.

Unemployment is not actually massively high as a percentage of the overall population so lots of people are still employed. The market is scared not actually completely destroyed. If you actually truly understood "bubble" the after effects are equally wrong and unsustainable.

Which area's are you talking about? Your posts have come across as labelling all of Dublin as out of bounds for single buyers interested in 3bed homes which is not true.

Of course Foxrock/Killiney for example will always only be open for buyers of a wealthy background, that will never change. This set of buyers are a small minority of the overall set of buyers in the market hence your statement is not true at all regarding 3bed homes.

Unemployment is actually a significant factor and along with emigration means the chances for a dual income buyer is less than it was before. Throw in the decreased disposable income that affects single buyers as well and prices come down to reflect the purchasing power of the buyer.

Together with less working adults roaming around in the country(census will prove this as has the CSO employment stats), the omens for the housing market are indeed negative.

Remember, many thousands of good earners(dual incomer's) bought those apts in the bubble years as a stepping stone to a house. They are stuck in negative equity for years, they are frozen out of the market.

The people who could not afford to buy at all in the bubble years and those who were prudent enough to stay out of the madness are the ones who are likely to buy now and into the future.

judas101

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

It is a hard question, but in general I would pay 100k for a three bed in a "normal" part of Dublin (e.g. Swords) and about 150k for a nicer part of Dublin, e.g. Stillorgan.

Personally I am more interested in living outside the city so I would pay about 80k maximum for a nice cottage with at least 10 acres of decent land.

These prices are from cuckoo-land!

Snakeblood

judas101 wrote: »

These prices are from cuckoo-land!

so were 2006 prices. There's going to be a snap back effect from the heights prices reached. I don't think prices will get that low, but then, at this point, things are so elastic they could do it.

Ray Palmer

gurramok wrote: »

Which area's are you talking about? Your posts have come across as labelling all of Dublin as out of bounds for single buyers interested in 3bed homes which is not true.

Of course Foxrock/Killiney for example will always only be open for buyers of a wealthy background, that will never change. This set of buyers are a small minority of the overall set of buyers in the market hence your statement is not true at all regarding 3bed homes.

Unemployment is actually a significant factor and along with emigration means the chances for a dual income buyer is less than it was before. Throw in the decreased disposable income that affects single buyers as well and prices come down to reflect the purchasing power of the buyer.

Together with less working adults roaming around in the country(census will prove this as has the CSO employment stats), the omens for the housing market are indeed negative.

Remember, many thousands of good earners(dual incomer's) bought those apts in the bubble years as a stepping stone to a house. They are stuck in negative equity for years, they are frozen out of the market.

The people who could not afford to buy at all in the bubble years and those who were prudent enough to stay out of the madness are the ones who are likely to buy now and into the future.

I don't get what concept is so difficult to understand. I certainly didn't say all of Dublin. Middle class area to buy a family home will not be available to one person on the NATIONAL average wage. Very straight forward I have said nothing more or less. They may be able to afford a one bedroom apartment in the area.

Your logic relies on extremes of situations of people in negative equity and people waiting to buy and ignores the majority of people not in this situation which makes up more of the market. I am not denying they exist just their influence is not the only factors.

If house prices go down as low as suggest interest rates will have gone through the roof and unlikely people will be any better off other than have waited longer to have bought a home and be older when they paid it off.

There are a lot of people like me who used the good times to reduce their mortgage. I could be in a good position to move to a more expensive neighborhood and easily squash a FTB on price and would if prices got so low as suggested. Rental yield would have greatly improved so investors would be back. You are using a very simplistic understanding of the market to suggest an outcome you favor.

gurramok

Ray Palmer wrote: »

I don't get what concept is so difficult to understand. I certainly didn't say all of Dublin. Middle class area to buy a family home will not be available to one person on the NATIONAL average wage. Very straight forward I have said nothing more or less. They may be able to afford a one bedroom apartment in the area.

Your logic relies on extremes of situations of people in negative equity and people waiting to buy and ignores the majority of people not in this situation which makes up more of the market. I am not denying they exist just their influence is not the only factors.

If house prices go down as low as suggest interest rates will have gone through the roof and unlikely people will be any better off other than have waited longer to have bought a home and be older when they paid it off.

There are a lot of people like me who used the good times to reduce their mortgage. I could be in a good position to move to a more expensive neighborhood and easily squash a FTB on price and would if prices got so low as suggested. Rental yield would have greatly improved so investors would be back. You are using a very simplistic understanding of the market to suggest an outcome you favor.

You will only be able to move to that more expensive neighbourhood if you manage to sell your house to a buyer. And that buyer will have to sell their house to another buyer down the chain and so on until you hit the seller who needs a FTB to buy his house to trade up.

The latter bunch(FTB) are alot fewer in number than a few years ago and will be in fewer number for many years to come and yes there probably is alot more in number probably from the older generation of owner occupiers who wish to move. Many will be stuck unless they reduce their prices as per the chain.

And yes you could indeed move and out bid a FTB on price in that expensive area but how many FTB's could afford to live there in the first place with how disposable income is going? Very few.

On rentals, why would investors invest when house prices are still falling due to economic factors? When the bottom is reached you will see a good chunk of tenants buying houses which along with a reduction in Rent Supplement will help push rents down.

Ray Palmer

gurramok wrote: »

You will only be able to move to that more expensive neighbourhood if you manage to sell your house to a buyer. And that buyer will have to sell their house to another buyer down the chain and so on until you hit the seller who needs a FTB to buy his house to trade up.

The latter bunch(FTB) are alot fewer in number than a few years ago and will be in fewer number for many years to come and yes there probably is alot more in number probably from the older generation of owner occupiers who wish to move. Many will be stuck unless they reduce their prices as per the chain.

And yes you could indeed move and out bid a FTB on price in that expensive area but how many FTB's could afford to live there in the first place with how disposable income is going? Very few.

On rentals, why would investors invest when house prices are still falling due to economic factors? When the bottom is reached you will see a good chunk of tenants buying houses which along with a reduction in Rent Supplement will help push rents down.

No I don't need a FTB I'll own my house my salary has risen along with my partners and I can rent it. FTB doesn't need to buy my house another if I decide to sell a person who is upgrading from an apartment could buy mine and a single income person can afford the one bed apartment. No need for a FTB to buy a 3 bed house in a Dublin suburb. Much more probable than your assumptions.

Your assumptions all rely on prices for ever going down which they won't. A very simplistic view only looking at one section of a much larger market assuming everybody is in the worst position possible. That is not the reality . Investors will come back to a market when there is a worth while return.

I don't see why you insist a single person will and should be able to afford a property designed for a family. It isn't probable nor sustainable.

The birth rate is quite high in Ireland and a lot of people still want to buy they are just afraid. I think the prices will come down and stabilize well before the situation you are suggesting. Your concept is no more well thought out than those who thought it would keep going up

gurramok

Ray Palmer wrote: »

No I don't need a FTB I'll own my house my salary has risen along with my partners and I can rent it. FTB doesn't need to buy my house another if I decide to sell a person who is upgrading from an apartment could buy mine and a single income person can afford the one bed apartment. No need for a FTB to buy a 3 bed house in a Dublin suburb. Much more probable than your assumptions.

Your assumptions all rely on prices for ever going down which they won't. A very simplistic view only looking at one section of a much larger market assuming everybody is in the worst position possible. That is not the reality . Investors will come back to a market when there is a worth while return.

I don't see why you insist a single person will and should be able to afford a property designed for a family. It isn't probable nor sustainable.

The birth rate is quite high in Ireland and a lot of people still want to buy they are just afraid. I think the prices will come down and stabilize well before the situation you are suggesting. Your concept is no more well thought out than those who thought it would keep going up

I never said prices 'will keep going down forever'. They will keep going down until the bottom is reached. Current indications of Ireland Inc as bankrupt suggest that prices will keep dropping and then maybe levelling off for many years to come, they will not rise in the same period.

You are contradicting yourself in the house buying scenario. You are relying on a tradeupper from an apt to buy your house yet you keep saying apt buyers are single incomers so how can that single incomer can buy your house at all?

Yes, investors will come back when the time is right. Getting finance(from the banks) and the clearing of the large vacant housing stock via NAMA needs to be enacted first and then they will need house prices to stop falling. Why invest in something if you can invest it cheaper costwise next year? Again, a wise investor will be watching the economy to jump in at the right time, that is years off now.

The birth rate has nothing to do with what's going on. We could produce a birth rate Indian style(high birth rate) or Chinese style(low birth rate), it does not produce buyers until 20-30 years away and then we have to rely on that todays babies will have jobs for them by 2035.

This statement is quite bizarre:
" No need for a FTB to buy a 3 bed house in a Dublin suburb", "I don't see why you insist a single person will and should be able to afford a property designed for a family. It isn't probable nor sustainable."

Before the year 2000, single people could afford to buy 3bed houses quite easily with a bit of effort and prudence. Dual income buyers were around back then as well.

What has changed in this 'need' in your eyes for a 3bed in the last 10years?

Everyone needs space, a buyer no matter how big their purchasing power is will buy with space in mind(amongst other factors) whether they are single income or dual income. With that in mind, buying a Dublin apt now for a FTB is a hazardous decision for a FTB whereby a minority of apts are large and majority of apts are not.

Mr. Loverman

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Obviously you failed to grasp the concepts I explained.

3 bed house is no longer the average home

The national average is not the same as the average wage in Dublin.

A single wage is no longer the average situation to buy a family home.

So essentially you think society will return to simpler times while it has radically changed along with the housing market being transformed.

You may find it hilarious but it just proves you have no concept of the changes that have happened to Ireland.

No I didn't fail to grasp the concept you explained, you are simply wrong but too arrogant to see it.

You are confusing the current state of the property market with the only state of the property market. What you fail to understand is that the times they are a-changin'.

Mr. Loverman

judas101 wrote: »

These prices are from cuckoo-land!

Based on what? Prices from the bubble?

Remember Ireland has been a backwater for nearly its entire existence except for the past 20 years (with about half of those years being a bubble...)

Reality is slowing returning.

What do you think the country will look like when we default in 3 or 4 years?

Ray Palmer

gurramok wrote: »

I never said prices 'will keep going down forever'. They will keep going down until the bottom is reached. Current indications of Ireland Inc as bankrupt suggest that prices will keep dropping and then maybe levelling off for many years to come, they will not rise in the same period.

You are contradicting yourself in the house buying scenario. You are relying on a tradeupper from an apt to buy your house yet you keep saying apt buyers are single incomers so how can that single incomer can buy your house at all?

Yes, investors will come back when the time is right. Getting finance(from the banks) and the clearing of the large vacant housing stock via NAMA needs to be enacted first and then they will need house prices to stop falling. Why invest in something if you can invest it cheaper costwise next year? Again, a wise investor will be watching the economy to jump in at the right time, that is years off now.

The birth rate has nothing to do with what's going on. We could produce a birth rate Indian style(high birth rate) or Chinese style(low birth rate), it does not produce buyers until 20-30 years away and then we have to rely on that todays babies will have jobs for them by 2035.

This statement is quite bizarre:
" No need for a FTB to buy a 3 bed house in a Dublin suburb", "I don't see why you insist a single person will and should be able to afford a property designed for a family. It isn't probable nor sustainable."

Before the year 2000, single people could afford to buy 3bed houses quite easily with a bit of effort and prudence. Dual income buyers were around back then as well.

What has changed in this 'need' in your eyes for a 3bed in the last 10years?

Everyone needs space, a buyer no matter how big their purchasing power is will buy with space in mind(amongst other factors) whether they are single income or dual income. With that in mind, buying a Dublin apt now for a FTB is a hazardous decision for a FTB whereby a minority of apts are large and majority of apts are not.

I am not contradicting myself. I am saying single people can afford apartments, single people don't remain single forever. On meeting somebody they will want to trade up as they want to have a family. So people living in apartments move on with their lives and trade up. Two incomes and two apartments in many cases. No contradiction.

Before 2000 there was little option in the housing market to buy anything but 3 bed houses. That has changed. Not everybody gets or stays married so their needed to be a new section in the housing stock, there is now. The game has changed and you are assuming it will return to the way things were but the housing stock/market changed as has society.

A lot of the housing stock to be cleared is not 3 bed houses in Dublin. Supply and demand remain the fundamentals. Housing in the largest area of employment will mean the National average wage will not buy a single person a 3 bed house in a middle class area in Dublin in the long term and highly unlikely even in the short term. It didn't before the boom either, people on above the national average wage were able to buy as singletons. It was not the norm and will not return as it was never really the case.

gurramok

Ray Palmer wrote: »

I am not contradicting myself. I am saying single people can afford apartments, single people don't remain single forever. On meeting somebody they will want to trade up as they want to have a family. So people living in apartments move on with their lives and trade up. Two incomes and two apartments in many cases. No contradiction.

Before 2000 there was little option in the housing market to buy anything but 3 bed houses. That has changed. Not everybody gets or stays married so their needed to be a new section in the housing stock, there is now. The game has changed and you are assuming it will return to the way things were but the housing stock/market changed as has society.

A lot of the housing stock to be cleared is not 3 bed houses in Dublin. Supply and demand remain the fundamentals. Housing in the largest area of employment will mean the National average wage will not buy a single person a 3 bed house in a middle class area in Dublin in the long term and highly unlikely even in the short term. It didn't before the boom either, people on above the national average wage were able to buy as singletons. It was not the norm and will not return as it was never really the case.

Negative equity stops those 2 singletons who fall in love to buy. They will have to be both FTB's in order to afford a place as banks will turn them away if one partner is in negative equity. And as we know countless thousands bought into the starter home world as a stepping stone to buy a house. They are stuck.

I keep hearing this about 'Middle Class' areas. Clontarf/Foxrock/Killiney are upper class areas where only the wealthy can buy there and I do not count other areas who claim to be in said areas in this statement. (like half of Finglas claiming to be in Glasnevin )

So you will have to clarify what a middle class area is. Perhaps use present asking prices? Its the generalisation of a single person not 'needing' a 3 bed a house or the sustainability of said house is what I have a problem with as single people did buy many houses in the pre-bubble era and yes apts did exist then.

Ray Palmer

gurramok wrote: »

Negative equity stops those 2 singletons who fall in love to buy. They will have to be both FTB's in order to afford a place as banks will turn them away if one partner is in negative equity. And as we know countless thousands bought into the starter home world as a stepping stone to buy a house. They are stuck.

I keep hearing this about 'Middle Class' areas. Clontarf/Foxrock/Killiney are upper class areas where only the wealthy can buy there and I do not count other areas who claim to be in said areas in this statement. (like half of Finglas claiming to be in Glasnevin )

So you will have to clarify what a middle class area is. Perhaps use present asking prices? Its the generalisation of a single person not 'needing' a 3 bed a house or the sustainability of said house is what I have a problem with as single people did buy many houses in the pre-bubble era and yes apts did exist then.

Foxrock, Clontarf are not middle class areas never said they were. I was talking about most of Swords. I don't expect somebody on the national average wage will be able to afford a 3 bed house there unless it is the lower class areas that are about it.

Not everybody who bought in the last ten years is in negative equity nor people who own apartments. Apts were very scarce prior to the building boom. They were generally owned by investors, that changed and is here to stay changed.

We caught up with the rest of the world in many ways, it is madness to expect everybody on an national average wage to be able to buy a 3 bed HOUSE in the capitals suburbs.

You are making incorrect assumptions about what I have actually said and about the market. I'll leave you to it. Hope that you can read back and try to comprehend what was actually said. Given your assumptions I don't think you can discuss this as all you seem to see is I don't agree with you.

Mr. Loverman

Ray Palmer wrote: »

I don't expect somebody on the national average wage will be able to afford a 3 bed house there unless it is the lower class areas that are about it.

You're entitled to have that opinion, just like I'm entitled to have mine.

The problem is you think your opinion is fact.

The reality is Ireland is utterly ****ed and house prices and wages will continue to drop. I would bet money you will be able to pick up a three bed in Swords for somewhere between 100 - 150k within the next four years.

Value is what people are willing to pay and currently most people aren't willing to pay anything close to what Swords homeowners hope to achieve.

Ray Palmer

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

You're entitled to have that opinion, just like I'm entitled to have mine.

The problem is you think your opinion is fact.

The reality is Ireland is utterly ****ed and house prices and wages will continue to drop. I would bet money you will be able to pick up a three bed in Swords for somewhere between 100 - 150k within the next four years.

Value is what people are willing to pay and currently most people aren't willing to pay anything close to what Swords homeowners hope to achieve.

I certainly did not state my details as fact just probable based on a logic I explained. You are actually stating your belief as definitive based on no details other than saying the country is screwed. I do agree you will be able to buy a cheap house in Swords for that kind of money just it will be the worst area and need a complete refurb.

A theory is not just a collection of beliefs it is a logical deduction based on facts and information. You are not providing anything of the sort.

Value may be based on what people are willing to pay but supply and demand are what you should be paying attention to. People won't supply the market with houses for certain values and won't sell forcing demand up until they will supply the market. Basic economics which you really don't seem to have a grasp of.

quozl

Ray Palmer wrote: »

People won't supply the market with houses for certain values and won't sell forcing demand up until they will supply the market. Basic economics which you really don't seem to have a grasp of.

That's not how things work. Markets are set at the fringe, and a small volume of properties that sell sets the actual price for the market.

There will continue to be properties for sale due to death, divorce and repossession.

Allsop are planning on having 200 properties at the next sale in 2 months, and 5 increasingly large auctions a year.

NAMA have been instructed to start off-loading some of their properties (http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cce50dd2-6b75-11e0-a53e-00144feab49a.html)

Etc, etc.

Mr. Loverman

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Basic economics which you really don't seem to have a grasp of.

I'm sorry to see you feel the need to keep taking pot shots at people. Are you ok?

magneticimpulse

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

I ultimately want to buy a 3 or 4 bed semi D in Rarthfarnham (proper Rathfarnham - near the Grange Road/village). Probably in about 3 - 5 years and i would expect to pay around €350k.

Thats crazy!!! My friends bought in Rathfarnham and paid €300k back in 2009. Now its not even "worth" that much.

This is a recession...the prices advertised on the likes of daft.ie are still the same prices from 2008....doesnt mean thats what a house in Rathfarnham is actually worth.

magneticimpulse

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Never said you didn't need FTB just that they aren't destined to be able to afford a 3 bed house as a standard on a single national average wage in an area where incomes are higher. Why do you think that is definitely going to happen and stay that way?
Lots of double income people waiting to sell their apartments to buy a house. Apartments are now the more likely step for single income people rather than a 3 bed family house.

Dual income is more than norm for a couple who are more likely going to need a 3 bed house. That will generally what will keep the single income from being able to buy a 3 bed house. The market is no longer 3 bed houses for everybody lots of other stock about now.


Unemployment is not actually massively high as a percentage of the overall population so lots of people are still employed. The market is scared not actually completely destroyed. If you actually truly understood "bubble" the after effects are equally wrong and unsustainable.

No its because myself (30 year old) and all my friends have left the country...thats why the figures are not as bad as they seem to you!!

In the process most of my friends split up who had bought houses and are still trying to sell these houses. The houses lay empty, while my friends live in other countries trying to work and pay off the mortgage for an empty house in Ireland. They might be in new relationships, with a new dual income, but they certainly are tied into the previous mortgage...I think the country has come to a stand still.

society is alot more complicated then the average 2.4 children/family.

Ray Palmer

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

I'm sorry to see you feel the need to keep taking pot shots at people. Are you ok?

That is not a pot shot. You are making wild claims with nothing to back it up with. Put a case forward why you belive your figures make sense rather than just state it as a definite.

Magnetic

Sorry you and your friends left the country but being around in the 80s I can assure you we haven't even come close to mass emigration that we once had. If all your friends have emigrated and are getting divorces that does not mean the rest of your generation have.

I work in a field that is still hiring and I see people still looking to buy homes just nervous about it. They are still putting bids in. The country has not come to a stand still by any means.

I agree society is much more complicate and I also believe the housing market is much more complicated than people think. These changes are going to mean what once was possible may never be possible again. Simply average wage does not mean you get a house for a family.

gurramok

Ray Palmer wrote: »

Foxrock, Clontarf are not middle class areas never said they were. I was talking about most of Swords. I don't expect somebody on the national average wage will be able to afford a 3 bed house there unless it is the lower class areas that are about it.

Not everybody who bought in the last ten years is in negative equity nor people who own apartments. Apts were very scarce prior to the building boom. They were generally owned by investors, that changed and is here to stay changed.

We caught up with the rest of the world in many ways, it is madness to expect everybody on an national average wage to be able to buy a 3 bed HOUSE in the capitals suburbs.

You are making incorrect assumptions about what I have actually said and about the market. I'll leave you to it. Hope that you can read back and try to comprehend what was actually said. Given your assumptions I don't think you can discuss this as all you seem to see is I don't agree with you.

Its certainly news that Swords is a middle class area. I've never met a person who said so until you came along

It ain't madness that a single wage can buy in a capital's suburbs. This is Dublin, not New York, Paris, Hong Kong or Beverly Hills, LA. Just because its the capital city does not translate into expensive property, just look at the range of capital cities in the developed world. The most expensive property is justifiable found in capital cities which have major economic world hubs. Dublin unfortunately for you is not one, Dublin is only an economic hub for Ireland.

Mr. Loverman

Ray Palmer wrote: »

That is not a pot shot. You are making wild claims with nothing to back it up with. Put a case forward why you belive your figures make sense rather than just state it as a definite.

Of course it's a pot shot, you are throwing insults around. You are coming across as quite angry/unhappy. I am genuinely sorry for you that this is the case, but really you are not going to win anyone over to your way of thinking by lashing out.

Also, maybe there is a reason why everyone is disagreeing with you. You may be wrong! :pac:

Ray Palmer

gurramok wrote: »

Its certainly news that Swords is a middle class area. I've never met a person who said so until you came along

It ain't madness that a single wage can buy in a capital's suburbs. This is Dublin, not New York, Paris, Hong Kong or Beverly Hills, LA. Just because its the capital city does not translate into expensive property, just look at the range of capital cities in the developed world. The most expensive property is justifiable found in capital cities which have major economic world hubs. Dublin unfortunately for you is not one, Dublin is only an economic hub for Ireland.

It is quite unusual in any country to expect an national average wage to be able to buy a family home in a capital city suburb. The fact Dublin is Ireland's financial hub means it is unlikely the country's national average wage will be enough to buy a family home in middle class suburbs.

Coolock, Swords and Clontarf. Rate which is middle class out of the three and it certainly is Swords. I don't know what criteria you would use for middle class but please enlighten me to where you think is middle class and how far below Swords is to that.

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

Of course it's a pot shot, you are throwing insults around. You are coming across as quite angry/unhappy etc...

That is a personal insult an certainly a pot shot about who I am as opposed to what I said about you lack of knowledge and inability to put forward a valid argument. You haven't put any logic behind why you are so adamant that house prices will be as you say they will be.

Theboinkmaster

magneticimpulse wrote: »

Thats crazy!!! My friends bought in Rathfarnham and paid €300k back in 2009. Now its not even "worth" that much.

This is a recession...the prices advertised on the likes of daft.ie are still the same prices from 2008....doesnt mean thats what a house in Rathfarnham is actually worth.

Not it's not, i don't think you know Rathfarnham well. There are places outside the m50 which are miles away from the grange road but still classified as Rathfarnham. There's no way you're friends bought a nice 4 bed semi in PROPER rathfarnham in 2008 for €300k - sure the lowest asking price for such a house today is still in excess of €500k. I'm referring to houses likes these:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=583986

or this

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=560058

these houses won't fall to less than €300k IMO.

mrmitty

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Not it's not, i don't think you know Rathfarnham well. There are places outside the m50 which are miles away from the grange road but still classified as Rathfarnham. There's no way you're friends bought a nice 4 bed semi in PROPER rathfarnham in 2008 for €300k - sure the lowest asking price for such a house today is still in excess of €500k. I'm referring to houses likes these:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=583986

or this

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=560058

these houses won't fall to less than €300k IMO.

Two boring, non-discript houses which could be found in any housing estate, anywhere in Ireland.
Why anyone would want to live in one of these (other than out of necessity) is beyond me.
3-4 x industrial wage IMO.

magneticimpulse

Ray Palmer wrote: »

That is not a pot shot. You are making wild claims with nothing to back it up with. Put a case forward why you belive your figures make sense rather than just state it as a definite.

Magnetic

Sorry you and your friends left the country but being around in the 80s I can assure you we haven't even come close to mass emigration that we once had. If all your friends have emigrated and are getting divorces that does not mean the rest of your generation have.

I work in a field that is still hiring and I see people still looking to buy homes just nervous about it. They are still putting bids in. The country has not come to a stand still by any means.

I agree society is much more complicate and I also believe the housing market is much more complicated than people think. These changes are going to mean what once was possible may never be possible again. Simply average wage does not mean you get a house for a family.

No need to feel sorry for me. I live in the Sunny South of France on a Vineyard surrounded by fantastic top quality wine. I was wise not getting a mortgage. It was not because I could not get one, it was because I have a brain and anyone with sense predicted a bust in the housing market. You can tell me how great your friends are signing up to buy a house, but anyone who is doing that in this climate does not have 2 brain cells to rub together. House prices will continue to fall for at least 7 more years. Go ahead and buy, its no skin off my back, just dont complain about it when people say we told you so.

I was in Ireland in the 80s and this is far worse!!! You make that statement, as if the likes of me was not in Ireland in the 80s?? I didnt know anyone from my family who left Ireland in the 80s...now all my cousins have left. How is that better? Fair play to your company taking on people...but Ive not seen any companies on the IDA website which is doing that well off. Otherwise i must be blind!

If your suggesting you work for a IT/Pharmaceutical company which manufactures stuff, sure its only a matter of time til they move to Eastern Europe or Asia. If Dell could pull out easily so can any other company if it saves them money. The EU wants Ireland to increase its corporate tax. The likes of France and Germany are very forceful about issues like that. When that comes into play, these companies will be quick to up and leave. Just because you think your job is so great now..not even you can guarantee your job, unless your Enda Kenny, and even then thats not a stable job for life.

magneticimpulse

Theboinkmaster wrote: »

Not it's not, i don't think you know Rathfarnham well. There are places outside the m50 which are miles away from the grange road but still classified as Rathfarnham. There's no way you're friends bought a nice 4 bed semi in PROPER rathfarnham in 2008 for €300k - sure the lowest asking price for such a house today is still in excess of €500k. I'm referring to houses likes these:

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=583986

or this

http://www.daft.ie/searchsale.daft?id=560058

these houses won't fall to less than €300k IMO.

Maybe you should look at daft.ie again, because there are houses on it coming up in Rathfarnham for less then 300k.

My friends live right in Rathfarnham!! Who are you to tell me I dont know the area?? Sure dont I only drink in the Yellow house and The Orchard pub.

You dont have to send me links to houses on daft.ie. It wont change the fact that they bought a 4 bed house with garage in Rathfarnham in 2009 for 300k...why are you insisting they didnt? When the fact is they did!

If you actually knew people buying houses in Rathfarnham you would know this.

dev100

Mr. Loverman wrote: »

It is a hard question, but in general I would pay 100k for a three bed in a "normal" part of Dublin (e.g. Swords) and about 150k for a nicer part of Dublin, e.g. Stillorgan.

Personally I am more interested in living outside the city so I would pay about 80k maximum for a nice cottage with at least 10 acres of decent land.

80 k for a nice cottage and 10 acres of land.... Where outside the city???

magneticimpulse

dev100 wrote: »

80 k for a nice cottage and 10 acres of land.... Where outside the city???

Theres loads of house's on daft.ie daft advertised for 60k around Ireland. These are 4 to 6 bedroom houses, either on farmland or contain a business. Its not that hard to believe. They might be outside of Dublin, but they will be the 1st to realistically drive the prices of houses down.

Banks are extremely strict these days. I cant even get an overdraft these days and got a bank charge of 40 euro the other day for going 10 euro into debt! If they are that strict with someone who has no loans or credit cards to pay off...what about everyone else???