Unicorn Experiment Log

jive

*First things first ----> Not backing any of these selections with real $$$ and I wouldn't advise anyone else too.

Basically what I'm going to do is back horses who have massively higher prices on Betfair than they do with the bookies. I will also be checking the Racing Post to make sure that they are not complete write-offs.

I will have no limit to the amount of horses I pick in a day. I could pick 20 or I could pick 2. I don't care. Whatever horse looks like it fits the criteria is going to be thrown up.

I know it's a bit pointless posting these picks up online BUT I like how easy it is to track date and time and the simplicity of typing it on the forum. If it proves profitable then happy days and if it does then who cares

Also if I hit around -200 points then I think I'll call it a day

Now let's make big bucks :cool:

Tipolino 2:05 Gowran
1 Point win 65.0
1 Point place 8.0

jive

Mo Saoirse 2:25 Navan
1 Point win 200.0
1 Point place 25.0

jive

Good Shot Noreen 2:25 Navan
1 Point win 38.0
1 Point place 7.2

jive

Miss Salinger 2.35 Gowran
1 Point win 32.0
1 Point place 6.6

jive

Fiona's Spirt Navan 2:55
1 Point win 36.0
1 Point place 6.2

Master Melody Navan 2:55
1 Point win 50.0
1 Point place 8.2

UrbanSea

Good luck Jive. One big winner in them and it'd have a huge effect on the bank.

fkiely

Interesting concept, will be watching with interest. Good luck fella.

jive

Cheers. Everyone says the bookies are rarely wrong so I figure if they're offering a 10/1 and I can get it at 50 it'll prove profitable in the long run. Not worth risking that theory with my own money though :pac: We'll see what happens I'll quote every winner anyway and tally up the bank at the end of each day. If the horse ain't quoted you can assume it came nowhere

jive

jive wrote: »

Good Shot Noreen 2:25 Navan
1 Point win 38.0
1 Point place 7.2

3rd

jive

Master Melody going off 17 now. Backed at 50. Good lay opportunity if the money was real :pac:

jive

Flight Control 3:05 Gowran Park
1 Point win 36.0
1 Point place 5.8

jive

jive wrote: »

Master Melody Navan 2:55
1 Point win 50.0
1 Point place 8.2

2nd

jive

Red Sea Poll Navan 3:30
1 Point win 85.0
1 Point place 15.5

jive

Flea Cheoil Navan - 16:35
1 Point win 65.0
1 Point place 10.5

Roi Du Boeuf Navan 17:10 note: 4 places
2 Point win 46.0
1 Point place 3.5

Cool Newport Navan 17:10 note: 4 places
1 Point win 70.0
1 Point place 8.8

Night Singer Navan 17:10 note: 4 places
1 Point win 30.0
1 Point place 5.1

Uncut Stone Navan 17:40
1 Point win 34.0
1 Point place 4.5

Smart City Navan 17:40
1 Point win 44.0
1 Point place 5.2

Scoot My Friend Navan 17:40
1 Point win 100.0
1 Point place 11.5

jive

Aldhaher Beebers 15:40 Gowran
1 Point win 120.0
1 Point place 17.5

jive

Toledo Gold Wetherby 17:45
1 Point win 40.0
1 Point place 3.3

Enjoy Your Life Wetherby 18:15
1 Point win 80.0
1 Point place 13.5

Hunters Belt Wetherby 18:15
1 Point win 9.6
1 Point place 2.18

jive

Unhinged 16:15 Gowran
1 Point win 23.0
1 Point place 3.05

Band of Luck 17:20 Gowran
1 Point win 80.0
1 Point 11.5

Kauto Mill Rose 17:20 Gowran
1 Point win 42.0
1 Point place 7.6

Cherokee Prince 17:20 Gowran
1 Point win 32.0
1 Point place 4.3

The Shaughraun 17:20 Gowran
1 Point win 18.0
1 Point place 4.0

4 in one race I'm some retard. Best part is I had to narrow it down :pac: hot favourite has some effect on the market!!!

jive

River Sava 17:50 Gowran
1 Point win 23.0
1 Point place 5.9

Brian The Warrior 17:50 Gowran
1 Point win 65.0
1 Point place 8.4

That's them all for today :pac:

jive

jive wrote: »

River Sava 17:50 Gowran
1 Point win 23.0
1 Point place 5.9

2nd

jive

High Hoylander Wetherby 18:15
1 Point win 20.0
1 Point place 3.05

jive

jive wrote: »

Enjoy Your Life Wetherby 18:15
1 Point win 80.0
1 Point place 13.5

Hunters Belt Wetherby 18:15
1 Point win 9.6
1 Point place 2.18

Enjoy your life 3rd - Racing Post had this result up wrong. Enjoy your life 4th.
Hunters Belt 1st

-3.42 Points * -16.92 as a result of Enjoy your life being nipped for 3rd
Couple of seconds and fourths today which were unlucky.

I don't mind going too deep in the red as one big winner turns it all around. Even a few places brings you back in business. Almost -17 in one day seems a bit much but if I was using real money I would probably pick and choose my horses a lot more carefully. I will try be more strict over the next few days but it can be hard when there is no cash involved. I will limit myself to 2 horses and 3 in larger races (other than exceptional circumstances!), only backing ones I genuinely think have a chance. My knowledge of horses is limited so we'll see what happens :pac:

jive

Blue Spartan Windsor 18:20
1 Point win 25.0
1 Point place 5.0

Saborido Windsor 18:20
1 Point win 29.0
1 Point place 5.3

jive

Cloud Nine Exeter 16:30
1 Point win 36.0
1 Point place 6.6

Pearly Star Exeter 16:30
1 Point win 160.0
1 Point place 24.0

Special Cuvee Exeter 17:00 note : 2 to be placed
1 Point win 15.0
1 Point place 4.0

jive

Flambard House Redcar 14:20
1 Point win 34.0
1 Point place 6.8

Fayr Fall Redcar 14:20
1 Point win 26.0
1 Point place 7.0

Lucky Cap Redcare 15.20
1 Point win 46.0
1 Point place 13.0

Captain Royale Redcar 16:20
1 Point win 34.0
1 Point place 7.4

William Wainright Redcar 16:50
1 Point win 44.0
1 Point place 7.6

Du Plessis Redcar 16:50
1 Point win 44.0
1 Point place 7.6

jive

Jays Girl Towcester 17:10
1 Point win 32.0
1 Point place 6.8

jive

Misty Conquest 17:20 Windsor
1 Point win 44.0
1 Point place 9.6

Miss Noble 17:20 Windsor
1 Point win 28.0
1 Point place 6.4

Zowington 18:50 Windsor
1 Point win 29.0
1 Point place 6.0

Canaveral 19:20 Windsor
1 Point win 32.0
1 Point place 4.5

Al Andalyya 19:50 Windsor
1 Point win 38.0
1 Point place 8.4

That's them all for today, hopefully find a winner

jive

jive wrote: »

Flambard House Redcar 14:20
1 Point win 34.0
1 Point place 6.8

2nd

johnny_cash

HI jive how is this going for you? can you please post you profit or lose bank?

L'prof

johnny_cash wrote: »

HI jive how is this going for you? can you please post you profit or lose bank?

He does that at the end of the day. -16.92 from yesterday, -34.0 for selections today and +6.8 for that place.

jive

ha at least somebody is interested


I'm definitely picking too many horses but I'm just getting an idea of how this would go in the long run. I've been ear marking the horses that I'd back with my own money to see how that goes too.

jive

A few people have wondered why I am choosing so many horses. I'm fully aware that I am choosing too many Just to clarify I am only selecting this many horses for a week or so. I am just getting a larger sample size so to speak. If I was only selecting 3 or so horses a day then it would take me ages to get a feel for this method/technique of betting. I've learned a bit over the last 2 days and will implement what I've learned next week. I'm open to criticism/advice and welcome it. All advice and constructive criticism is MORE than welcome Next week I will probably look at shorter priced horses which are overpriced on the exchange (i.e. avoid the much higher priced horses (e.g. some of the 40/1 horses that I've been taking at 100-200 on the exchange) to hopefully reduce losing streaks). I will probably continue picking a retarded amount for another couple of days at least. I think on Saturday I will just select a couple of fancied overpriced horses and not just overpriced horses that aren't complete write-offs.

L'prof

jive wrote: »

All advice and constructive criticism is MORE than welcome

Since you aren't actually staking any real money yet, maybe you should track a few staking plans? One could be the one you're using now, another could be 1 point win & 1 point place and maybe even try dutching the place & win so that a place would return more money (although this would reduce any profit from winners).

jive

L'prof wrote: »

Since you aren't actually staking any real money yet, maybe you should track a few staking plans? One could be the one you're using now, another could be 1 point win & 1 point place and maybe even try dutching the place & win so that a place would return more money (although this would reduce any profit from winners).

Yeah I've been thinking that myself. Some of the horses shorten considerably before the off and I could lay them to at least save stake. Then you would essentially be free-rolling, although like you said profit would be reduced.

Canaveral for example just went off at 14.5 (15 for lay) and 11 with bookies but was backed at 32. Didn't place though but a 1 point lay would have covered the stake and could have returned either +17 points profit or 0 point loss. I'm not sure what he was on the place market, though. Obviously this opportunity doesn't happen with every horse.

I've plenty of thinking to do. I could also just place a win bet which would limit the losses but may also increase losing streaks. If I was able to lay the win later in the day to save stake this would be a good method but like I said that's not always the case. I might have a look at that for the rest of this week though to see if it's a possibility. I'm not sure dropping the place portion of the bet would be wise though given that I am getting some decent priced places. It's probably something worth looking at though.

I would like to try the win / lay thing but it would be time consuming. I could back early then see what the lay price is just before the off though but would be unable to check regularly. Mind=blown at all the possibilities ha

jive wrote: »

Blue Spartan Windsor 18:20
1 Point win 25.0
1 Point place 5.0

4th Paid 4 places, other horse I had in that race came 5th. Winner won it easily enough though. The reasonably priced horses that are overpriced on betfair seem to be good bets. A few have placed, yet to find a winner though.

UrbanSea

Did mixed_up delete that comment you quoted?

Just regards constructive criticism.
I'd leave out races where horses are racing off level weights,maiden hurdles,novice races for example. How often does a huge price horse win them? At least in handicaps you get the odd big priced one.

jive

UrbanSea wrote: »

Did mixed_up delete that comment you quoted?

Just regards constructive criticism.
I'd leave out races where horses are racing off level weights,maiden hurdles,novice races for example. How often does a huge price horse win them? At least in handicaps you get the odd big priced one.

Nah it was via pm hahah.

Cool. You know more than me when it comes to horse racing for sure so I'll take that on board. It probably would have taken me months to realise that. So far I've noticed that there seemed to be more big priced winners over hurdles than on the flat. I could be wrong though because that's just on initial impressions. I never followed horses before with the exception of the big meetings and local meetings at home.

UrbanSea

Just in particular in Ireland. If you were to watch a lot of maiden hurdles you'd see after 'in rear,never dangerous' for nearly 90% of horses over 20/1. The amount of non tryers is ridiculous,where they're just protecting a mark for handicap races down the line.

jive

I'll avoid those for the most part so unless there's a short priced one at a big price on the exchange.

jive wrote: »

Al Andalyya 19:50 Windsor
1 Point win 38.0
1 Point place 8.4

Went off at 20 so another good lay opportunity there. Just missed out on 3rd.

jive

-39.12 now!

I will try and limit my selections tomorrow.

I will also try a staking plan (as well as the normal one) where I will back a win only and then lay it later in the day if possible and keep a seperate bank for that one. I will only pick horses that will hopefully present the possibility of laying later in the day.

x PyRo

Report any PM's like that mate and they'll be dealt with.

People are fully entitled to have threads for trialling a system without having money on.

Do as you like and pay no attention to the nay-sayers (or nay-sayer). Pick a few hundred horses a day if you want!

Best of luck with the thread and PM me if there's any more of that nonsense.

jive

Hahah cheers but I honestly couldn't care less. If he doesn't like it he doesn't have to click the thread. I need something to keep me ticking over for the summer months (there's only so much GAA :pac:) and if I find a way to back horses with my limited knowledge that proves to be profitable then happy days. If I don't then I'm sure I'll manage to survive!

I noticed all top horse tipsters just look for overpriced horses. If they're decently overpriced on the exchange in comparison to the bookies and have a realistic chance of winning then I guess they're still overpriced. Whether this will work or not is what I'm going to find out

jive

Spirit of Coniston Southwell 3:00
1 Point win 11.5
1 Point place 3.35

Beautiful Day Southwell 3:30
1 Point win 10.5
1 Point place 2.44

Mandalay Prince Southwell 4:00
1 Point win 34.0
1 Point place 6.6

Mandalay Prince Southwell 4:00 ____ to lay
1 Point win 34.0

Lockantanks Southwell 4:30
1 Point win 20.0
1 Point place 4.5

Plenilune Southwell 17:05
1 Point win 23.0
1 Point place 5.6

jive

Night Orbit Pontefract 15:40
1 Point win 18.0
1 Point place 4.6


Paradise Spectre Pontefract 16:40
1 Point win 25.0
1 Point place 5.7

Paradise Spectre Pontefract 16:40 ___ to lay
1 Point win 25.0

jive

Brilliant Fontwell 3:20
1 Point win 15.5
1 Point place 2.52

jive

jive wrote: »

Spirit of Coniston Southwell 3:00
1 Point win 11.5
1 Point place 3.35

win @ 11/2

jive

Themanfromcork Fontwell 17:20
1 Point win 11.5
1 Point place 3.7

Specialagent Alfie Fontwell 17:50
1 Point win 21.0
1 Point place 4.4

jive

Mandalay Prince drifting atm. Might come in before the off though as he has been shortening in some bookies

L'prof

jive wrote: »

Mandalay Prince Southwell 4:00 ____ to lay
1 Point win 34.0

jive wrote: »

Paradise Spectre Pontefract 16:40 ___ to lay
1 Point win 25.0

What price would you be looking to lay these horses at? Do you have a certain margin/percentage in mind? I'm pretty sure you can place an unmatched bet before a race for whatever price you'd settle for.

jive

jive wrote: »

Night Orbit Pontefract 15:40
1 Point win 18.0
1 Point place 4.6

2nd

jive

L'prof wrote: »

What price would you be looking to lay these horses at? Do you have a certain margin/percentage in mind? I'm pretty sure you can place an unmatched bet before a race for whatever price you'd settle for.

Yeah you can do that but I'm reluctant because I'm not sure if it will lay it in running then? If its price shortens in running I'd just let it be. Not too fond of laying in running because I just don't know enough about racing to be able to tell if it's worth laying or not and also because of the time delay in viewing it.

I don't really have a certain margin I will just watch the market. If he keeps shortening then I'll leave it late until laying. If he shortens and begins to drift then I will try to lay before it gets too big. If I can't lay then I'll just risk the stake. I would like to make sure it is worth laying, however. I will only lay if the bet will return 5+ points for example. I dont see the point in laying when I will only stand to win 1 point or so!

Mandalay prince can be layed at 29 now but he has been shortening so I'll just see how it goes for another few minutes. I'll post up what lay price I will take. I backed him with real money to make sure I concentrated on it and didn't forget haha.

jive

He's beginning to drift now. Didn't shorten enough to make it worth laying.

edit: He came nowhere

Paradise Spectre can be layed for 23.0. Backed at 25.0. I will probably try to avoid laying unless I stand to win 5+ points on the higher priced horses at least. That's another thing I'll have to look at.

edit #2: Non-runner :pac: Oh well. I'll try find a horse in the later meetings that might shorten closer to the off to try it again.

jive

Miss Firefly Wolverhampton 17:45
1 Point win 9.8
1 Point place 2.38

Lady of Burgundy Wolverhampton 20:15
1 Point win 27.0
1 Point place 4.3

Lady of Burgundy Wolverhampton 20:15 __ to lay __
1 Point win 27.0

Lady of Burgundy seems to be given a good chance in this one. Danger to the lay imo is that I often see horses with Silvestre De Sousa on are backed well. He's on an outsider which might be backed and then obviously mine probably won't shorten all that much, if any. Best price is 16/1 with the bookies for Lady Of Burgundy. I've noticed that most horses tend to reflect the bookies prices closer to the off unless they are big outsiders. Hopefully that'll be the case here.